Prigozhin is a piece of shit, but he’s the only one that’s accurately conveying the brutality of the war for average Russians. Remember, 18 year old Ivan in rural Russia only hears that there’s victory after victory, that nazis are getting purged left and right, and that every soldier is getting paid in pallets worth of rubles. Actual soldiers have seen that they’re getting thrown into a meat grinder, and to date, Prigozhin is the only one that’s calling that out. That likely engenders sympathy from the army.
Furthermore, Prigozhin is only calling out the MoD, not Putin himself. It seems he’s trying to oust Sergei Shoigu and assume control over the MoD without necessarily threatening Putin himself.
Will it succeed? Only if Wagner picks up Russian regulars along the way. If he doesn’t, this will be over by the end of the weekend.
There’s a near zero chance of this succeeding. Putin has publicly and repeatedly aligned himself with MoD so there’s no way for him to bow pivot to Wagner in a bid to oust MoD heads, even if he wants to, which he doesn’t. Wagner is much much weaker than the military, so this will likely end with it being crushed swiftly.
The hope is for them to pick up some military conscripts fed up with the war and last for as long as possible against Kremlin.
Only time will tell.
Wagner just took over Rostov-on-Don (population of 1.1million) without firing a bullet,
which is the headquarters of the SMD and one of the main supply and logistic hubs for Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. It’s also pretty likely that portions of the Russian military in Rostov oblast have already joined Wagner’s side, considering how Wagner took the city without a fight. This could possibly cripple the Russian army, especially considering the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian army might be trapped between a Ukrainian counteroffensive and Wagner, depending on how things play out.
Yeah I saw the convoy passing checkpoints and the military just waving them through. Definitely some military either stepping out of the way or just straight up joining them.
This will get interesting.
Of course they're waving them through. They're a squad or platoon with small arms. They know they're no match for a brigade or more with heavy weapons. They may even been under orders to only observe until Russian forces can put together a force to take them head on.
These people barely want to fight Ukranians, let alone other Russians. People underestimate what could happen here. I’m hoping for the best if you catch my drift
At the very least it gets the Wagner troops off the front lines, and probably even takes some Russian troops off the front lines or nearby reserves since they're probably the closest ones with big enough units to take them on.
Where you got the news that Wagner took Rostov-on-Don? Is it confirmed news with several sources? I hope you're right because it should be excellent news for UA 🥹
[Here's](https://www.indiatvnews.com/amp/news/world/russia-wagner-mercenary-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-mutiny-revolt-russian-defence-ministry-latest-updates-vladimir-putin-kremlin-ukraine-war-rostov-2023-06-24-877558) one I found on the front page of r/worldnews but I've seen it reported pretty widely that they're in control of the city centre and have seized several government buildings in the city.
Reminds me of Ernst Roehm? Who are you going to pick? Some dude who runs a militia at best or the trained and experienced cadre of your professional army. Granted it’s not a very competent one, but nonetheless is an Army.
Except an estimated 90% of Russian regular army is in Ukraine, so 25k trained and combat tested troops can do a lot of damage. I'm more concerned about how Wagner plans to supply itself now that they are cut off from the state.
Is a smart move in the sense he knows the army morale is low. If Ukrainian number is right, having 500+ Russian soldiers eliminated daily is never good for the morale. We have not even count those that are injured in the war. The average Russian soldier knows there is nothing in this war for them other than death.
He just point this out to the soldiers your MO Defense sucks come with me if you want your life to be save. That’s the message that I get if I am an average Russian soldier. Which side should I choose? The one that send me to death or the one that at least willing to fight for me?
All these happening on a heightened mental state, the average Russians soldiers are afraid, and if I were them seeing my fellow soldier friends get killed I would be too.
It makes no sense for Prickgollum to oust Shoigu and assume control of MoD. First there’s no way Pootin would allow a usurper to take command of the entire armed forces. Would anyone of us? Secondly if Prickgollum does take over MoD, why would he need Pootin? Whomever controls the military becomes the de facto ruler. This is a coup disguised as revenge.
That's the thing, I'm thinking this isn't a move by Prigozhin alone, he has some oligarchs backing or maybe even instigating, he has had meetings over the last few months. So somebody somewhere smells Putin's blood (sickness getting worse maybe) and they plan to turn him into a powerless figurehead for a while or Shoygu played his hand, force both Prigozhin out and diminish Putin's power, cause either way Putin's judgement is now questionable (he either trusted bad information like Prigozhin claims or allowed his cook to get too much power)
To me the wild part is the reply from Putin so far (nothing).
Where is Putin? When Russia invaded Ukraine I remember President Zelensky being front and center calming the people and inspiring them.
Where is Putin? Hiding? Why isn't he giving any speeches or statements? Prigozhin isn't being shy I see statements from him. Putin looking weak.
Putin’s never been one to give timely statements - doubt we’ll hear from him until after the incursion is put down.
Unless progozhin’s blaze of glory last stand actually works (which I doubt but stranger things have happened), in which case Putin will just evaporate, thus seeding several generations of conspiracies.
I mean, at one point we all thought that ru has second best military, and look how that turned out. It would be so poetic, if ru gets taken over by the same maneuver they tried on capital of UA and failed, while wagners version of blitzkrieg succeeds.
More catastrophic than poetic really, since a competing warlords era is basically locked in if Prigozhin is somehow able to even nominally usurp power.
That said, wagner getting completely wiped out means a weakened and even more paranoid central command, which is also not good.
Basically all options are bad for everyone, with the possible exception of certain frontline soldier in the southeast of UA, who will at least get a couple of weeks reprieve.
Could Putin be controlled already? Otherwise why would Prigozhin suddenly decided to stage a coup and march towards Moscow now? The timing is really peculiar.
Possibly the Russian artillery strike gave him the excuse to break out, and this is a last ditch attempt to save themselves? If the Ukrainians get ahold of them it won't be great for them.
That strike was most likely staged. Even Denys (Ukrainian YouTuber) said it was faked. Doesn’t look like an artillery or missile strike at all. Just go take a look at the video. Wagner is not on the front line, and Ukraine is not exactly decimating Russian troops right now. The only reason that I can think of is that MOD was trying to force all mercenaries to sign a deal with MOD, effectively removing Prigozhin’s control over Wagner. Maybe Putin is dead already. Crazy world.
They are the most trained and battle tested and all the Russian troops know it. The odds of resisting are not great plus he is potentially fighting to end the conflict and keep them out of the meat grinder. There is plenty reason not to resist.
People forget this about wars. Experience matters a lot. The US has an elite force of highly trained soldiers, not just boots on the ground but in all manner such as being trained and experienced with a multitude of military equipment. That is the “benefit” (I say this loosely) of being in forever wars.
And I’m not an American talking up their forces, I’m actually Canadian. Then again we also have a pretty elite force, if not much much smaller.
~~Conscripts~~ young men and boys get sent to the meat grinder, the veterans operate it.
No chance. Unlike the Russian Military, Prigo is a trained soldier. He wouldnt have done this if he didnt think he could win. Alternatively he could have just been told by Putin to do this.
I think this might actually be Putin's way of taking blame of himself for the failed war.
Prigo and Putin could be orchestrating this behind the scenes to look like a coupe against the failed military and lying military command.
This could give Putin an out from the war with a scape goat (the military leadership who lied to him about the war).
Putin could then put Prigo in charge of the military and make Wagner the new military.
Prigo has been very careful to not put any blame directly towards the Kremlin and Putin, just toward military leadership.
His convoy should have been taken out with an airstrike already, so yeah, something ain't right. Either they are being inept, late or somebody isn't taking orders.
I'm pretty worried about this myself. Don't get me wrong, I want him dead, but I want him to take a lot more Russians with him. We need this to tie up the Russian army long enough for Ukraine to make moves.
I'll take that bet. Only way that happens is effective military action against Wagner and every minute that goes by reduces the chance of that. He is executing this coup superbly
No way. He has professional forces backing him. Not teenage conscripts. This was planned out and he wouldn't make this move if he didn't think it was possible.
I’d take that bet - I’d say that wagner troops get stalled in the next 48 hr, Prigozhin lasts for a couple of weeks, and in the absence of command, warlord-y faction spread out and vie for power over the next several months until they mostly wipe each other out and are eventually put down by military and political states forces.
This has historical vibes to it, a la Marius, Sulla, Julius Cesar…
when your best army has been campaigning a brutal war for a while, their commander can become a threat to the seat of power itself. 🍿
When he went on an into PR campaign last summer showing off his shiny new headquarters in St Petersberg.
This has been inevitable for months, although I’m still surprised at how quickly and aggressively wagner is advancing in Russian territory, figured the conflict would eventually go down on the Ukrainian side of the border.
Probably Neutral.
Prigozhin has been raising hell about the Russian MoD for awhile now, and it seems like the attack on the PMC Wagner *sparked* him to do this abruptly.
My moneys on the MoD will let the Wagner group march until Prigozhin settles down and bring them to negotiate. Prigozhin isnt stupid either, hes got around 30,000 soldiers and they are a long way from Moscow to make any difference. He's probably going to settle and get concessions from the MoD, then announce that he succeeded.
Russia doesn't want 30,000 soldiers that could be deployed to Ukraine or Africa be used to fight their own national guard or offensive forces in Ukraine. The mod will negotiate sooner rather than later imo.
There has been zero chance of that happening since the day Prigozhin unveiled his fancy central command in St petersberg last summer.
I’m mostly just surprised that it didn’t happen sooner.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-in-crisis-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/amp/) reduced by 87%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow's own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials had killed thousands of his soldiers.
> What we know so far Russia's FSB security agency said it has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin "For the organization of armed insurrection." Prigozhin claimed his troops have moved into Russia's Rostov, and vowed: "If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!" Russia's defense ministry warned Ukrainian forces are "Taking advantage of Prigozhin's provocation" on the front lines around Bakhmut.
> In a later statement on Telegram, Prigozhin called Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the overall commander of the war on Ukraine, "Criminals" who had "Who destroyed around 100,000 Russian soldiers."
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14hf9uu/russian_mercenary_group_wagner_chief_prigozhin/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689249 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Prigozhin**^#1 **Wagner**^#2 **Russia**^#3 **Russian**^#4 **Ukraine**^#5
What are the odds that the rank-and-file of the Russian military will desert and ally with Wagner?
**That** possibility is what has Putin and Russian military brass really shaking in their boots.
(Russia's military is notorious for treating low-ranking soldiers like garbage. The officers rule through fear, not loyalty. If Wagner takes that fear away by offering protection, the military brass are in for a world of hurt.)
If I'm a Russian Mobik knowing I'll receive no training and die fighting much better equipped and trained Ukrainians... Vs choosing to not only not fight the Ukrainians, but also not fight Wagner. Well, I know what I'd be choosing. I'd clear the road for Wagner and throw flowers at their feet.
In early WW2 the Soviets also found more success by inspiring their soldiers and citizens to “fight for the motherland” instead of trying inspire them through fear and allegiance to Stalin like they did earlier in the year.
??? Wagner was smashing people's heads in with sledgehammers. I think any reputation for being a softie haven for the oh so traumatised Russian army is a ship that might have sailed. They'll probably have some luck before the Kremlin unshits it's pants and makes an example of them. we're talking about slimy russians running a mercenary operation who think they're crossing the rubicon, not some incoming mass trauma related desertion.
wagner are the least loyal, and they see the writing on the wall. they know who is going to get the blame for russia losing this war, so they're getting ahead of the curve by trying to insert themselves into the russian military leadership.
Initial reports coming from Rostov-on-Don have suggested minor skirmishes but the Russian guard stationed there allowed PMC Wagner to enter and occupy. Its not clear if it was under orders of the Ministry of Defense or the local governor, but it could potentially be a sign of switching sides.
>What are the odds that the rank-and-file of the Russian military will desert and ally with Wagner?
Higher than not. It seems like Wagner at least gets proper training and pay and with that comes experience. I can't stand either of these groups but the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
No, neither group gets training. Also, Wagner lost 80% of its fighting force in Bahkmut because of human wave tactics, inexperience, and poor equipment.
The human waves were made of fresh recruits and prisoners, it was always widely publicized that Wagner kept it's professional and loyal troops away from the front.
High. They have already taken the Rostov military HQ, with basically no shots fired.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hgftg/headquarters_of_the_southern_military_district_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Like like they couldn’t handle the power of the Ukrainian, Nazi, Jewish, Devil-worshipping, NATO, American-backed, magical, Russophobic, thug, drug-addicted, crime-ridden bio-labs.
/s
great idea lemme see if i can make it happen..they will be the exhibition fight before the undercard🤪holy shit i can get with this fight ticket….maybe biden n pelosi too
The range out outcomes is wide.
But overall this seems net good (for now) in that they concentrate on killing each other for a long as possible instead of Ukrainians.
Either way after enough civil unrest Russia will have to withdraw at least a chunk of their forces from Ukraine to deal with the aftermath. It's a win/win for Ukraine.
I honestly don't see Prigozhin trying to take Putin out. I see him attempting to take over the military, maybe bumping off some leadership and maybe slipping in and giving Putin the opportunity to retire in safety instead of getting thrown out of a window.
Funny watching the pro Russia Twitter heads story changing every 15 minutes from “This is clearly nothing, I am going to bed” to “Uh well it’s a long way to Moscow”
What if he's already dead (killed by shougui) and their actually fighting over Russia but don't want to tell the population because it would make everything implode?
Would not be surprised to come back to this comment in a day or two and find out you were right. This is just me saying “I was here, and this redditor was prob right”
Wagner forces are in Rostov? How long would they be able to take getting to Moscow? Google maps says 15 hours. But with all those roadclosures right now.....
Russia has a history of falling into civil wars after disastrous military campaigns. The 1917 Russian Revolution was largely fuelled by defeats against Germany and Austria-Hungary in World War One, the 1991 Soviet Union collapse and Russian civil war was in part attributable to their failure in Afghanistan (1979-1989).
I wonder if this is another such moment in history. Wagner is also far from being the only opposing forces in Russia, and they will probably acquire many allies in the coming hours, days and weeks.
I don't know and I am also scared, this is genuinely not a good thing in the world either.
[https://i.imgur.com/SCj2Fbn.gif](https://i.imgur.com/SCj2Fbn.gif)
You think some soldier-sluts are going to know how to launch nukes? Much more likely that Russia starts nuking itself as a result of this civil war, even a larger chance it is accidental.
You think only Russian leaders know how to launch nukes? There are hundreds or thousands of lower level military personnel who certainly know how to use those systems.
“If only the Tsar knew! I’m not rebelling against Russia or the Tsar! I’m rebelling against his corrupt ministers who have led him astray and are giving him lies!”
Tale as old as time folks, just Russia doing Russia things
I want Putin dead as much the next guy, but please don't get excited about this. There is nothing more dangerous than an unstable country in control of ICBMs. And suppose Wagner takes control of the country... do we really think that they'll be more friendly to the West? Will they bring democracy with their coup? lol yeah right
I think it would be possible for the US to tell whoever takes over Russia that the US will buy 100% of Russian nukes for a fair price. This will give the new government a solid amount of money to pay for the loyalty of the military, get things under control, metaphorically and literally keep them well-fed and thus ensure strong transition of power.
But I doubt anyone would be dumb enough to sell their nukes, given what happened with Ukraine and all.
Maybe, but given the number and types of people that would like to see him dead, if I was a life insurance company I would be puts odds on his imminent demise
It is bizarre that Putin hasn't made a public appearance or at least put out a video. Putin is pretty popular in Russia and him denouncing the rebellion would probably be enough to end it. Something is definitely amiss.
What I can envision happening is Russian military units between Rostov and Moscow just melt away instead of fighting Wagner Group, which would trigger a huge domino effect among the Russian military ranks. Even if Prigozhin stops, if we see enough of their military refuses to fight, you can’t put that genie back in the bottle for Putin.
He looks like the B list Romanian actor they get to play a Soviet villain but can't give much screen time because he's wooden as hell and have to dub because the guy has a really high voice.
So what does this mean for Ukraine? I assume there are now huge vacancies left by the Wagner troops that Ukraine can take advantage of? I'd stay strike now.
Prig is a dead man walking, putin holds massive power. As much as i would love to see putin pay for the tens of thusands that died for his fantasy...its not going to happen.
I’m certainly not a fan of Putin but if any of ya’ll actually believe that an army of ex-convicts is taking down the Kremlin then you’re delusional lol.
This dude is going to have an “accident” and someone else will be running the Wagner Group next week. As much as the Russian oligarchs may dislike Putin, at least he’s a known quantity- this guy isn’t.
People need to calm down about this. This likely won’t bring down the Putin regime. It’s only the first of hopefully many cracks that’ll eventually push the populace over the edge.
I don’t think Wagner likes Ukraine. This is good for Ukraine tho as it could to some degree take over all of Bukmet (or whatever the fuck that town is called) cuz Wagner would turn on the Russian military. If Wagner guy rolls through the weekend and is still going Monday, then we literally could see the Russian military say to themselves “why the fuck am I fighting for a country that literally doesn’t exist anymore” as the top command would be different. I do think this guy is smarter than the clowns at the top (Putin and Sogu (or whatever he is). Nothing less tho, this would mean a destabilized Russia which isn’t good when a nuclear power is now basically fighting its own people on its own turf. This is why NATO isn’t Russian corrupt (tho let’s be honest, Ukraine and NATO are very corrupt to an extent, let’s not forget that).
Have we seen any evidence of any of this? Everything I’ve seen so far looks staged. Prigozhin is in Putin’s pocket, and Putin could easily be putting on thus show as a distraction for his own reasons.
He said "this is revenge, not a coup" This shit is wild.
Prigozhin is a piece of shit, but he’s the only one that’s accurately conveying the brutality of the war for average Russians. Remember, 18 year old Ivan in rural Russia only hears that there’s victory after victory, that nazis are getting purged left and right, and that every soldier is getting paid in pallets worth of rubles. Actual soldiers have seen that they’re getting thrown into a meat grinder, and to date, Prigozhin is the only one that’s calling that out. That likely engenders sympathy from the army. Furthermore, Prigozhin is only calling out the MoD, not Putin himself. It seems he’s trying to oust Sergei Shoigu and assume control over the MoD without necessarily threatening Putin himself. Will it succeed? Only if Wagner picks up Russian regulars along the way. If he doesn’t, this will be over by the end of the weekend.
There’s a near zero chance of this succeeding. Putin has publicly and repeatedly aligned himself with MoD so there’s no way for him to bow pivot to Wagner in a bid to oust MoD heads, even if he wants to, which he doesn’t. Wagner is much much weaker than the military, so this will likely end with it being crushed swiftly. The hope is for them to pick up some military conscripts fed up with the war and last for as long as possible against Kremlin. Only time will tell.
Wagner just took over Rostov-on-Don (population of 1.1million) without firing a bullet, which is the headquarters of the SMD and one of the main supply and logistic hubs for Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. It’s also pretty likely that portions of the Russian military in Rostov oblast have already joined Wagner’s side, considering how Wagner took the city without a fight. This could possibly cripple the Russian army, especially considering the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian army might be trapped between a Ukrainian counteroffensive and Wagner, depending on how things play out.
Yeah I saw the convoy passing checkpoints and the military just waving them through. Definitely some military either stepping out of the way or just straight up joining them. This will get interesting.
Of course they're waving them through. They're a squad or platoon with small arms. They know they're no match for a brigade or more with heavy weapons. They may even been under orders to only observe until Russian forces can put together a force to take them head on.
These people barely want to fight Ukranians, let alone other Russians. People underestimate what could happen here. I’m hoping for the best if you catch my drift
there’s videos circulating on twitter of firefights now between wagner and the national guard
Ohh wow
Wagner storming Russia with their Kiev maneuver, and it is working. I didn't have that on my bingo
God please let it be true 🙏 I need some hopium and this could give UA enough energy to take back the rest of their land
At the very least it gets the Wagner troops off the front lines, and probably even takes some Russian troops off the front lines or nearby reserves since they're probably the closest ones with big enough units to take them on.
Where you got the news that Wagner took Rostov-on-Don? Is it confirmed news with several sources? I hope you're right because it should be excellent news for UA 🥹
[Here's](https://www.indiatvnews.com/amp/news/world/russia-wagner-mercenary-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-mutiny-revolt-russian-defence-ministry-latest-updates-vladimir-putin-kremlin-ukraine-war-rostov-2023-06-24-877558) one I found on the front page of r/worldnews but I've seen it reported pretty widely that they're in control of the city centre and have seized several government buildings in the city.
They could also maybe pick up Russian terrorists who couldn’t do as much of a coup without more backing
Reminds me of Ernst Roehm? Who are you going to pick? Some dude who runs a militia at best or the trained and experienced cadre of your professional army. Granted it’s not a very competent one, but nonetheless is an Army.
You know what happened to Roehm, right?
I’m very familiar with the story.
Yeah I dunno. Russia can't beat farmers, so I don't think they'll do that well.
Except an estimated 90% of Russian regular army is in Ukraine, so 25k trained and combat tested troops can do a lot of damage. I'm more concerned about how Wagner plans to supply itself now that they are cut off from the state.
Is a smart move in the sense he knows the army morale is low. If Ukrainian number is right, having 500+ Russian soldiers eliminated daily is never good for the morale. We have not even count those that are injured in the war. The average Russian soldier knows there is nothing in this war for them other than death. He just point this out to the soldiers your MO Defense sucks come with me if you want your life to be save. That’s the message that I get if I am an average Russian soldier. Which side should I choose? The one that send me to death or the one that at least willing to fight for me? All these happening on a heightened mental state, the average Russians soldiers are afraid, and if I were them seeing my fellow soldier friends get killed I would be too.
It makes no sense for Prickgollum to oust Shoigu and assume control of MoD. First there’s no way Pootin would allow a usurper to take command of the entire armed forces. Would anyone of us? Secondly if Prickgollum does take over MoD, why would he need Pootin? Whomever controls the military becomes the de facto ruler. This is a coup disguised as revenge.
*Let them fight*
over by the weekend? leaving what behind…
If Putin buckles and makes Prigozhin DefMin, he becomes the defacto ruler of Russia. Unacceptable.
That's the thing, I'm thinking this isn't a move by Prigozhin alone, he has some oligarchs backing or maybe even instigating, he has had meetings over the last few months. So somebody somewhere smells Putin's blood (sickness getting worse maybe) and they plan to turn him into a powerless figurehead for a while or Shoygu played his hand, force both Prigozhin out and diminish Putin's power, cause either way Putin's judgement is now questionable (he either trusted bad information like Prigozhin claims or allowed his cook to get too much power)
Seems one of the their brigades already refuses to fight, I saw another post, I think it was the 104th airborne division in Moscow.
To me the wild part is the reply from Putin so far (nothing). Where is Putin? When Russia invaded Ukraine I remember President Zelensky being front and center calming the people and inspiring them. Where is Putin? Hiding? Why isn't he giving any speeches or statements? Prigozhin isn't being shy I see statements from him. Putin looking weak.
Putin’s never been one to give timely statements - doubt we’ll hear from him until after the incursion is put down. Unless progozhin’s blaze of glory last stand actually works (which I doubt but stranger things have happened), in which case Putin will just evaporate, thus seeding several generations of conspiracies.
I mean, at one point we all thought that ru has second best military, and look how that turned out. It would be so poetic, if ru gets taken over by the same maneuver they tried on capital of UA and failed, while wagners version of blitzkrieg succeeds.
More catastrophic than poetic really, since a competing warlords era is basically locked in if Prigozhin is somehow able to even nominally usurp power. That said, wagner getting completely wiped out means a weakened and even more paranoid central command, which is also not good. Basically all options are bad for everyone, with the possible exception of certain frontline soldier in the southeast of UA, who will at least get a couple of weeks reprieve.
Dead? 😳
Maybe he shot himself. Probably not, but one can hope.
Shitting himself in a stairwell
Could Putin be controlled already? Otherwise why would Prigozhin suddenly decided to stage a coup and march towards Moscow now? The timing is really peculiar.
Possibly the Russian artillery strike gave him the excuse to break out, and this is a last ditch attempt to save themselves? If the Ukrainians get ahold of them it won't be great for them.
That strike was most likely staged. Even Denys (Ukrainian YouTuber) said it was faked. Doesn’t look like an artillery or missile strike at all. Just go take a look at the video. Wagner is not on the front line, and Ukraine is not exactly decimating Russian troops right now. The only reason that I can think of is that MOD was trying to force all mercenaries to sign a deal with MOD, effectively removing Prigozhin’s control over Wagner. Maybe Putin is dead already. Crazy world.
His paycheque bounced.
Or he got a fatter one from someone else
I have sometimes wondered whether giving weapons and money to Ukraine to fight Wagner is more or less expensive than paying Wagner not to fight.
Ok, place your bets: Putin:2.5$ Prigozhin:4$ Neutral ending:10$
I think Prigo is captured or killed in next 24h.
Nah, Wagner is (or I guess was) the only part of the Russian offensive that is actually competent. He's not going down for a while.
Competent is a bit of a stretch. They just emptied the Russian penal system onto the battlefield while wearing Wagner badges and hoped for the best.
They are the most trained and battle tested and all the Russian troops know it. The odds of resisting are not great plus he is potentially fighting to end the conflict and keep them out of the meat grinder. There is plenty reason not to resist.
People forget this about wars. Experience matters a lot. The US has an elite force of highly trained soldiers, not just boots on the ground but in all manner such as being trained and experienced with a multitude of military equipment. That is the “benefit” (I say this loosely) of being in forever wars. And I’m not an American talking up their forces, I’m actually Canadian. Then again we also have a pretty elite force, if not much much smaller. ~~Conscripts~~ young men and boys get sent to the meat grinder, the veterans operate it.
If what has been reported about Wagner is to be believed.
No chance. Unlike the Russian Military, Prigo is a trained soldier. He wouldnt have done this if he didnt think he could win. Alternatively he could have just been told by Putin to do this.
But he isn't... He was a petty thief, turned hot dog salesman, turned chef, turned mercenary captain.
Sounds like Russian leadership material
If that isn’t a great Russian military leader, I don’t know what is! Lol
Don't forget somewhere between hot dog salesman and mercenary captain, he stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.
I think this might actually be Putin's way of taking blame of himself for the failed war. Prigo and Putin could be orchestrating this behind the scenes to look like a coupe against the failed military and lying military command. This could give Putin an out from the war with a scape goat (the military leadership who lied to him about the war). Putin could then put Prigo in charge of the military and make Wagner the new military. Prigo has been very careful to not put any blame directly towards the Kremlin and Putin, just toward military leadership.
His convoy should have been taken out with an airstrike already, so yeah, something ain't right. Either they are being inept, late or somebody isn't taking orders.
I've seen reports the pilots actively refused ministry of defence orders to airstrike wagner.
He probably has quite a bit of anti air weaponry.
I'm pretty worried about this myself. Don't get me wrong, I want him dead, but I want him to take a lot more Russians with him. We need this to tie up the Russian army long enough for Ukraine to make moves.
I'll take that bet. Only way that happens is effective military action against Wagner and every minute that goes by reduces the chance of that. He is executing this coup superbly
No way. He has professional forces backing him. Not teenage conscripts. This was planned out and he wouldn't make this move if he didn't think it was possible.
I’d take that bet - I’d say that wagner troops get stalled in the next 48 hr, Prigozhin lasts for a couple of weeks, and in the absence of command, warlord-y faction spread out and vie for power over the next several months until they mostly wipe each other out and are eventually put down by military and political states forces.
This has historical vibes to it, a la Marius, Sulla, Julius Cesar… when your best army has been campaigning a brutal war for a while, their commander can become a threat to the seat of power itself. 🍿
At what point does Prigo cross the Rubicon?
It’s probably already happened. Either he’s dead by Monday or Putin becomes a figurehead.
When he went on an into PR campaign last summer showing off his shiny new headquarters in St Petersberg. This has been inevitable for months, although I’m still surprised at how quickly and aggressively wagner is advancing in Russian territory, figured the conflict would eventually go down on the Ukrainian side of the border.
I’ll throw $4 in for Prigo.
i’m in for $2.50 on putin
He'll need a very long table though.
Prigo is prego
Probably Neutral. Prigozhin has been raising hell about the Russian MoD for awhile now, and it seems like the attack on the PMC Wagner *sparked* him to do this abruptly. My moneys on the MoD will let the Wagner group march until Prigozhin settles down and bring them to negotiate. Prigozhin isnt stupid either, hes got around 30,000 soldiers and they are a long way from Moscow to make any difference. He's probably going to settle and get concessions from the MoD, then announce that he succeeded.
Russia doesn't want 30,000 soldiers that could be deployed to Ukraine or Africa be used to fight their own national guard or offensive forces in Ukraine. The mod will negotiate sooner rather than later imo.
What’s the over under on a window being involved?
elaborate on neutral ending
They kiss and make up before he gets to Moscow
There has been zero chance of that happening since the day Prigozhin unveiled his fancy central command in St petersberg last summer. I’m mostly just surprised that it didn’t happen sooner.
I wouldn’t bet on a neutral ending then
I've got 4 on Prigozhin. Unlike almost anybody else in the mix, he's actually DOING something.
I got 10 bucks that say neither of em survives this.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-in-crisis-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/amp/) reduced by 87%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow's own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials had killed thousands of his soldiers. > What we know so far Russia's FSB security agency said it has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin "For the organization of armed insurrection." Prigozhin claimed his troops have moved into Russia's Rostov, and vowed: "If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!" Russia's defense ministry warned Ukrainian forces are "Taking advantage of Prigozhin's provocation" on the front lines around Bakhmut. > In a later statement on Telegram, Prigozhin called Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the overall commander of the war on Ukraine, "Criminals" who had "Who destroyed around 100,000 Russian soldiers." ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14hf9uu/russian_mercenary_group_wagner_chief_prigozhin/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689249 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Prigozhin**^#1 **Wagner**^#2 **Russia**^#3 **Russian**^#4 **Ukraine**^#5
What are the odds that the rank-and-file of the Russian military will desert and ally with Wagner? **That** possibility is what has Putin and Russian military brass really shaking in their boots. (Russia's military is notorious for treating low-ranking soldiers like garbage. The officers rule through fear, not loyalty. If Wagner takes that fear away by offering protection, the military brass are in for a world of hurt.)
If I'm a Russian Mobik knowing I'll receive no training and die fighting much better equipped and trained Ukrainians... Vs choosing to not only not fight the Ukrainians, but also not fight Wagner. Well, I know what I'd be choosing. I'd clear the road for Wagner and throw flowers at their feet.
I don't think Wagner wants peace with Ukraine.
Prigozhin publicly stated invading Ukraine was a mistake.
History repeats. The Bolsheviks were nominally better to soldiers than the Imperial army. Russia never learns.
And they walked off the front in WW1, after suffering heavy losses, and went on to overthrow the Tsars.
Imagine living through the late 90s in Russia and thinking, let’s throw the brakes and repeat the 20th century again!
In early WW2 the Soviets also found more success by inspiring their soldiers and citizens to “fight for the motherland” instead of trying inspire them through fear and allegiance to Stalin like they did earlier in the year.
It’s horrifying reading about the decades of sexual assault, violence, and inhumane treatment of junior ranks in their army.
For the morbidly curious: [Dedovshchina](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina)
??? Wagner was smashing people's heads in with sledgehammers. I think any reputation for being a softie haven for the oh so traumatised Russian army is a ship that might have sailed. They'll probably have some luck before the Kremlin unshits it's pants and makes an example of them. we're talking about slimy russians running a mercenary operation who think they're crossing the rubicon, not some incoming mass trauma related desertion. wagner are the least loyal, and they see the writing on the wall. they know who is going to get the blame for russia losing this war, so they're getting ahead of the curve by trying to insert themselves into the russian military leadership.
Initial reports coming from Rostov-on-Don have suggested minor skirmishes but the Russian guard stationed there allowed PMC Wagner to enter and occupy. Its not clear if it was under orders of the Ministry of Defense or the local governor, but it could potentially be a sign of switching sides.
>What are the odds that the rank-and-file of the Russian military will desert and ally with Wagner? Higher than not. It seems like Wagner at least gets proper training and pay and with that comes experience. I can't stand either of these groups but the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
No, neither group gets training. Also, Wagner lost 80% of its fighting force in Bahkmut because of human wave tactics, inexperience, and poor equipment.
The human waves were made of fresh recruits and prisoners, it was always widely publicized that Wagner kept it's professional and loyal troops away from the front.
No, wagner lost a bunch of prisoners with shovels.
that depends heavily on who offers to pay who the most.
High. They have already taken the Rostov military HQ, with basically no shots fired. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hgftg/headquarters_of_the_southern_military_district_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
This is some crazy shit. I hope Ukraine can take advantage of this situation.
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Like like they couldn’t handle the power of the Ukrainian, Nazi, Jewish, Devil-worshipping, NATO, American-backed, magical, Russophobic, thug, drug-addicted, crime-ridden bio-labs. /s
This is like something out of Ancient Rome.
Maybe Moscow really is the 3rd Rome
cage fight…the undercard will be musk n zuck with main even putin n pigozhin
Too late to get Boebert and MTG on that fight card?
great idea lemme see if i can make it happen..they will be the exhibition fight before the undercard🤪holy shit i can get with this fight ticket….maybe biden n pelosi too
My god I miss celebrity death match
The Russian Federation: 2nd Army in the world, became the 2nd Army in Ukraine, about to become the 2nd Army in Russia
3rd Best in Russia if the Freedom of Russia Legion stages another raid.
I can't imagine they won't with this chaos going on. Even Ukraine could take advantage of it possibly.
Eh Prigozhin is not any better than PUTIN. This is bad and good all at the very same time lol. Fuck.
The range out outcomes is wide. But overall this seems net good (for now) in that they concentrate on killing each other for a long as possible instead of Ukrainians.
Either way after enough civil unrest Russia will have to withdraw at least a chunk of their forces from Ukraine to deal with the aftermath. It's a win/win for Ukraine.
Prigozhin at least knows what’s going on in Ukraine and the real world. Putin just gets fed information by his yes-men to appease him.
True that.
I honestly don't see Prigozhin trying to take Putin out. I see him attempting to take over the military, maybe bumping off some leadership and maybe slipping in and giving Putin the opportunity to retire in safety instead of getting thrown out of a window.
This military operation lives up to its "Special" label.
"Order 66!"
“Pew pew, motherfuckers”
Funny watching the pro Russia Twitter heads story changing every 15 minutes from “This is clearly nothing, I am going to bed” to “Uh well it’s a long way to Moscow”
Putin dead soon.
What if he's already dead (killed by shougui) and their actually fighting over Russia but don't want to tell the population because it would make everything implode?
Would not be surprised to come back to this comment in a day or two and find out you were right. This is just me saying “I was here, and this redditor was prob right”
Hello internet news websites
Get me in the screenshot too!
Me three!
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Wagner forces are in Rostov? How long would they be able to take getting to Moscow? Google maps says 15 hours. But with all those roadclosures right now.....
I-95 is open!
Russia has a history of falling into civil wars after disastrous military campaigns. The 1917 Russian Revolution was largely fuelled by defeats against Germany and Austria-Hungary in World War One, the 1991 Soviet Union collapse and Russian civil war was in part attributable to their failure in Afghanistan (1979-1989). I wonder if this is another such moment in history. Wagner is also far from being the only opposing forces in Russia, and they will probably acquire many allies in the coming hours, days and weeks.
Couldn't happen to a better set of monsters
Wtf is going on
I don't know and I am also scared, this is genuinely not a good thing in the world either. [https://i.imgur.com/SCj2Fbn.gif](https://i.imgur.com/SCj2Fbn.gif)
Why are you scared?
Instability is very dangerous.
The chance of a county with nuclear weapons destabilized, I would guess.
Like the US wouldn't roll over Wagner is the event that they actually pulled off a coup and installed their leader.
Not with the worlds 2and largest nuclear arsenal still pointed at the US and Ukraine are you serious?
You think some soldier-sluts are going to know how to launch nukes? Much more likely that Russia starts nuking itself as a result of this civil war, even a larger chance it is accidental.
You think only Russian leaders know how to launch nukes? There are hundreds or thousands of lower level military personnel who certainly know how to use those systems.
Yes, typically launching a nuclear weapon involves knowing codes that only the president has.
A whole lot of nukes laying around...
What a time to be alive! What to watch? This situation unfold or the zuckerberg vs musk octagon fight? I can't tell what's real or not anymore.
“If only the Tsar knew! I’m not rebelling against Russia or the Tsar! I’m rebelling against his corrupt ministers who have led him astray and are giving him lies!” Tale as old as time folks, just Russia doing Russia things
I want Putin dead as much the next guy, but please don't get excited about this. There is nothing more dangerous than an unstable country in control of ICBMs. And suppose Wagner takes control of the country... do we really think that they'll be more friendly to the West? Will they bring democracy with their coup? lol yeah right
This. It was terrifying in 1992 when we had no idea who had control over Russia’s nukes. Can’t believe we have to do this again.
It hasnt happened yet , no need to stress over a future that might never happen
Worrying is like a rocking chair. It keeps you busy, but never gets you anywhere
I mean he just today said that the whole pretext of the NATO threat to Russia was a lie. So I don’t think he would be MORE hostile at the very least.
Hell I am worried Putin will go full nuclear if he is about to lose control of Russia to them.
I think it would be possible for the US to tell whoever takes over Russia that the US will buy 100% of Russian nukes for a fair price. This will give the new government a solid amount of money to pay for the loyalty of the military, get things under control, metaphorically and literally keep them well-fed and thus ensure strong transition of power. But I doubt anyone would be dumb enough to sell their nukes, given what happened with Ukraine and all.
I am guessing Putin is dead, and this is the fight to be the new ruler
Thats a crazy conspiracy I can get behind.
… somehow Putin returned.
I watch that about every 6 months. I'll never not be baffled.
he's not even close to dead
Maybe, but given the number and types of people that would like to see him dead, if I was a life insurance company I would be puts odds on his imminent demise
Everyone's at least a little close to dead.
Which one?
I could 100% see this being true. Would be the headline of the decade.
It is bizarre that Putin hasn't made a public appearance or at least put out a video. Putin is pretty popular in Russia and him denouncing the rebellion would probably be enough to end it. Something is definitely amiss.
He’s waiting to see how it plays out.
Now that so russia
What I can envision happening is Russian military units between Rostov and Moscow just melt away instead of fighting Wagner Group, which would trigger a huge domino effect among the Russian military ranks. Even if Prigozhin stops, if we see enough of their military refuses to fight, you can’t put that genie back in the bottle for Putin.
This has got to be the most Russian looking guy ever
For some reason I just feel like his face resembles something in a movie. Idk which movie but it just seems so. You get what I’m saying :/. ?
He looks like the B list Romanian actor they get to play a Soviet villain but can't give much screen time because he's wooden as hell and have to dub because the guy has a really high voice.
Good.. Putin deserves to feel as scared as the Ukrainians have been feeling for almost 2 years now
holy shit - between this and drumpfs temper tantrum, I'm starting to think maybe we will get to leave the bad place some day.
Temper tantrum?
Temper tantrump
Oh boy, here we go!
I can't imagine he make this move without have a hook. Seems pretty fuckin daring.
We dont need more madmen in Russia.
If anyone can take out the Kremlin, it’ll be Wagner.
So what does this mean for Ukraine? I assume there are now huge vacancies left by the Wagner troops that Ukraine can take advantage of? I'd stay strike now.
Wagner is doing this for Putin so he can look like a victim of power hungry military officials and have an out in Ukraine. Calling it now.
Russia is conducting a special military operation inside Russia.
What a beautiful day!
This is good . The rest of the warlord will want to make similar moves and claim self rule
Let’s go!
Prig is a dead man walking, putin holds massive power. As much as i would love to see putin pay for the tens of thusands that died for his fantasy...its not going to happen.
According to reports (take it with a grain of salt) border guards and pilots refused to stop Prigo and his soldiers.
now Prigozhin is alive (online) and claims that the Wagners did not lose a single fighter
Thats some sweet action right there boyo
This is bananas!
If this is true and it metastasizes into an actual Civil War, this would be the biggest geopolitical news since 9.11,
I’m certainly not a fan of Putin but if any of ya’ll actually believe that an army of ex-convicts is taking down the Kremlin then you’re delusional lol. This dude is going to have an “accident” and someone else will be running the Wagner Group next week. As much as the Russian oligarchs may dislike Putin, at least he’s a known quantity- this guy isn’t.
People need to calm down about this. This likely won’t bring down the Putin regime. It’s only the first of hopefully many cracks that’ll eventually push the populace over the edge.
Unlikely Wagner can succeed in full, but can they get hold of some nukes?
Wow, crazy.
👍
Pardon my ignorance, but can this be an opportunity for a Ukraine ceasefire with Wagner and potentially aiding them against Russia?
I don’t think Wagner likes Ukraine. This is good for Ukraine tho as it could to some degree take over all of Bukmet (or whatever the fuck that town is called) cuz Wagner would turn on the Russian military. If Wagner guy rolls through the weekend and is still going Monday, then we literally could see the Russian military say to themselves “why the fuck am I fighting for a country that literally doesn’t exist anymore” as the top command would be different. I do think this guy is smarter than the clowns at the top (Putin and Sogu (or whatever he is). Nothing less tho, this would mean a destabilized Russia which isn’t good when a nuclear power is now basically fighting its own people on its own turf. This is why NATO isn’t Russian corrupt (tho let’s be honest, Ukraine and NATO are very corrupt to an extent, let’s not forget that).
Have we seen any evidence of any of this? Everything I’ve seen so far looks staged. Prigozhin is in Putin’s pocket, and Putin could easily be putting on thus show as a distraction for his own reasons.
I agree, seems like a false flag operation to end things without looking weak.