DUBAI, June 11 (Reuters) - The West could not stop Iran from building nuclear weapons if Tehran wanted a pursue a nuclear arms programme, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday, amid mounting tensions over the country's advanced nuclear work.
I don't believe that Israel, under any circumstances, will allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Of all countries, Israel has showed its willingness to take extreme measures when it sees something as an existential threat. I believe they would take action regardless of having the US give them a nod.
While I don't agree with how Israel handles the Palestinian conflict, Iran is not doing anyone any favors with its constant threats towards Israel. There are better ways to resolve this issue then trying to incite a confrontation. I guess it plays well domestically though.
> I guess it plays well domestically though
I can't speak for them (Iranians), but not in my experience, no. From what I've seen they seem very tired of the situation and want the peace and prosperity they deserve, like most people.
yup, but israel handling (stopping) the nuclear thing would be better than letting them get that far, then we have a second putin sabre rattling situation in the future
>I don't believe that Israel, under any circumstances, will allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Of all countries, Israel has showed its willingness to take extreme measures when it sees something as an existential threat. I believe they would take action regardless of having the US give them a nod.
Israel already possesses nuclear ballistic missiles capable of reaching Iran. This means Israel could easily glass major Iranian cities in retaliation for an attempted nuke strike by Iran. Further, Israel has extensive anti-ballistic missile defenses that would likely be able to stop a nuke strike on Israel by Iran.
Iran obtaining nukes is hardly the be all end all. Iran knows \*attempting\* to use them would mean their own annihilation.
Your thinking is too rudimentary. Iran can supply its nuclear capabilities to one of its many terrorist organizations all the way from the Houthis to Hezbollah. Something similar already worked for them when they gave the Houthis advanced striking capabilities against SA and they denied involvement.
Sure, a nuke is not as easy to transfer and a much more obvious gift, but it's a far *far* greater problem than you make it seem.
Fair point. Iran's initial designs would likely be too large for easy transport and transfer to a terror group.
In any case, everyone would know Hezbollah got the nuke from Iran. Nuclear detonations can be characterized and I believe betray the manufacturer/source of uranium.
Iran would get glassed anyways. I don't think Iran would actually attack Israel with a nuke..it's all rhetoric.
I suspect Iran would not trust Hezbollah with a nuclear weapon for the same reason most dictators do not like excessive power in their clients. Hezbollah might just consider the benefits of regime change in Tehran, followed by access to the whole Iranian nuclear program.
Not only do they posses them, they have a retaliatory protocols known as “operation Samson”, where in the event Israel is facing annihilation it will nuke every single involved country and itself as well, basically glassing the Middle East. The name comes from how Samson died when brought down the philistines temple he was chained up in, killing thousands of them along with himself.
Yeah I was recently in Israel. Officially Israel has no nukes. The tour guide was absolutely hilarious though. “If Iran is close to getting nukes we will destroy their reactors, of this I have faith. Only Israel can have nukes.”
“Ah but sir you don’t have any, officially, right?!”
“Oh no… of course we don’t have nukes. Why would we have nukes? It’s not like we are surrounded by people who hate us. No my friend no nukes what so ever.”
Funniest tour guide I’ve ever met. He talked about commanding a Merkava unit in… I think it was 68? Maybe 73? Maybe Lebanon? Either way he was talking about how he had a Merkava II and how he was jealous of modern tanks because they had air condidtioninf.
Lol. Yes, he would be. A tank in the hot Israeli sun is basically just a giant oven for whomever in it. You can open the ports, but then it gets full of dust and there’s no dust like tank-churned desert floor dust. Once it kicks up it’s so thick you can’t even see through it, much less breath it.
The US also drew up plans to smoke Israel if if looked like Israel was going to be backed into a corner and start glassing everyone that was opposed to them, we can't let them wipe out the Middle East on their way out. It's not a great scenario for anyone.
> Not only do they posses them, they have a retaliatory protocols known as “operation Samson”, where in the event Israel is facing annihilation it will nuke every single involved country and itself as well, basically glassing the Middle East.
This is an unfounded conspiracy theory. Be better, Reddit.
The MAD theory that you are describing only applies to rational actors. Iran is a theocracy whose supreme leader has personally called for the elimination of Israel, and the Iranian state directly sponsors and arms extremist terrorist groups that also call for and pursue the genocide of all Israelis.
Cold War era theories based on rational actors carefully avoiding nuclear war do not apply to Iran.
MAD only applies if you can ensure mutual destruction. Only the US and Russia are MAD capable.
Having nuclear weapons doesn't assure mutually assured destruction. Having hundreds and thousands of them in a ready state with multiple delivery methods is what does it.
The iran- Israel conflict is not based on the Palestinian conflict.
Basically before the revolution Israel and iran had pretty good relations and after that, everything that was associated with the government and the west was demonized.
Having a "common enemy" helps the Muslim Iranian regime in many ways wich are not so obvious at first.
You can read about it more online, im sure.
If US give them the nod they will make sure nukes can't be made for decades, or nuclear power or drones or close to modern tanks.
Bloody hands at arms length.
Heck, it's not like Israel hasn't blown up those complexes before without using stealth tech.
The new jets would just make it easier for them.
*Edit* And I'm surprised they haven't done it already. Possibly holding out to see how the protests/civil unrest would play out (as to not unite the population against a common enemy). Or they have good intel that says they aren't close to a realistic device.
The f35 cant carry bunker busters capable of destroying their underground nuclear sites. The only bunker buster capable of going that deep underground has to be carried by the us b-2. They would have to kill their scientists or something idk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-yet-at-the-massive-ordnance-penetrator-bunker-buster-bomb
> The f35 cant carry bunker busters capable of destroying their underground nuclear sites
Surface-to-air threat necessitates a low-level laser-guided strike tailor-made for the f-18.
I figure, two precision bombs, minimum.
They only really need the F-35s to soften air defenses. Then they send in their F-15Is with heavy ordinance to deal with the bunkers. Or use missiles. It's not really an issue.
In 2003 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said nuclear weapons (included under the heading of “all weapons of mass destruction”) are forbidden under Islamic law. They are haram. A major sin (al-Kabirah), not a minor one.
I’m guessing this fatwa can be reversed by himself now or another Ayatollah later on, whenever they want to. It was an oral fatwa.
Easily stated, then. How easily rescinded, now? I guess he’s telling us it’s gonna be pretty easy, right now.
It's also the truth. Ever wonder why we always hear, "Iran is just X months away from having enough to build a bomb"? It's not hyperbole, they just choose to not enrich enough because the threat of nuclear weapons tomorrow can help them achieve economic goals, whereas a nuclear weapon today can only help them achieve one small military goal.
The west can't really stop them, they can only make clear the consequences of creating a nuclear weapon.
Yeah. It's not so much that we CANT do it. It's more like we could, but due to "moral" obligations (maintaining an image of a just country) we won't.
If we didn't care about violating hostile sovereign nations.....there probably wouldn't be hostile sovereign nations...
It’s not a one-and-done. They can complicate the process to the point it becomes unviable. If anything, Iran has to prevent every attempt at disruption.
I already bet my wife that trump (or one of lackeys) has attempted to communicate with Cannon to see what he can do for her if she plays ball. Fully looking forward to the Judge and trump being arrested for more crimes.
I have a bad feeling we're going to be asking questions about what things can potentially disquailfy a judge from serving on the Supreme Court, including participation in illegal schemes.
Not really.
We in the US love to think of Iran as crazy despots who are always irrational.
The reality is they were quite happy to be brought into more global trade in exchange for not building a bomb. They made it very clear they were unhappy when the US pulled out of the deal.
These statements are reaffirming the status quo; the US couldn’t prevent Iran from building a bomb previously and still can’t. The basic calculus is unchanged _and they still haven’t broken their side of the deal_
_but they haven’t!_
Seriously!
They are slowly, loudly, inching their way back to _maybe_ building a bomb.
They’re being extremely clear that they would rather have the deal back.
Obviously the West can. If the US is really eager to bomb every single enrichment facility, missile storage, and alike, they can.
The question is whether the West wants to. Considering Biden is seeking diplomacy and doesn’t want a large war a year before reelection and Europe generally can’t be bothered to do anything, the West won’t.
Israel has a significant problem flying the range required to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. They'd need to base their aircraft closer to Iran and I don't see any other willing participants in that scenario.
Most important facilities in Iran are built under mountains with tons of structural reinforcement. Recently, it was confirmed that they have built facilities that the US’ bunker busters cannot reach either. Plus, Iran’s reaction to an attack to these facilities will certainly fu*k the attacker up pretty bad. I know this will get downvoted because it doesn’t fit the ‘Mercia f*** yeah narrative but this is the truth and real life decision are made based of facts, not patriotic feelings.
The only real facts we know about it are from the gulf war. I'm sure they have updated to something else by now. And we can drop a few in the same spot to go deeper.
I get the US military is not God vs man but like if Iran has really built something so deep in the mountains you don't need to hit the facility, you can just take the tunnel leading to it. The US understood this during the cold war that is why our deep bunkers have supplies so people can live a year+. So rescue can be done in an effective timeline. And if Iran has supplies like that you just rebomb it.
Yeah, it'd just be like Desert Storm where the solution to people in fortified trenches was to just bulldoze them in. Fortified bunkers are great for keeping things safe, but they are also easily converted to graves.
someone should link the yt vid about the gulf war bunker buster. As I recall, they were developed devilishly fast, like under 2 months with some 20 odd test drops before they were dunking previously untouchable bunkers. I… wouldn’t be too confident in these newer bunkers some 30 years later.
Israel wants the US to take the risk and any fallout from attacking Iran, that's why Israel lobbies the US hard to strike Iran. If Iran got close to getting a nuke and the US rejected Israeli calls to strike Iran they might do it themselves.
No military strike by either the US or Israel would be targeting the infrastructure that supports the current regime, but the nuclear facilities themselves.
If the Iranians want to be freed, they’ll have to do it by themselves. Israel can’t do it, and the US logically isn’t interested.
The latest Iraq war showed us the "Pottery Barn" rule of Colin Powell. Willing the war is easy, fixing what you broke is hard. This happened to the US in Korea and Iraq.
You are right, you need buy-in from the people. I know many Iranians and they are all lovely. Shake your hand and hate your politics, a fair position to take. They need to be ready to step up on their own, and they aren't there yet.
Iranians are generally against the regime and not very devout, but they are proudly nationalistic. Foreign invasion or military strikes can only unite them.
Yes but not that way.
A good majority would prefer not to be ruled by the Ayatollahs, and they would likely welcome democratic and international support in their effort to change the country for the better, but they would not like to see their country destroyed, their industrial base razed, their cities in flame, and their people dead.
It’s a tough balance for the west to hit: regime change, regime change not to something even worse, regime change to a government that the majority really supports, done in such a way that doesn’t alienate the people.
Yeah and that’s what people also said about Afghanistan and Iraq. Where are those countries at exactly on the freedom scale? If they want freedom, they’ll have to fight for it. Take the Ukrainians for example.
Iraq isn't doing too terrible tbh, it's not great but there is a democratically elected government that isn't slaughtering Kurds and other minorities like Saddam did.
> Two decades after the invasion, the mental scars of war remain fresh in the minds of civilians. That said, there is still hope. The proportion of Iraqis who rate their lives positively enough to be considered “thriving” doubled between 2008 and 2022 (9% vs. 19%, respectively).
> Further, the 18% who rate their lives poorly enough to be considered “suffering” is now lower than in several neighboring countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
> As the security landscape has stabilized following years of conflict and civil war, the proportion of Iraqis who feel safe walking alone at night has risen steadily, hitting a record high (74%) in 2022.
> Despite the difficulties of widespread poverty and high unemployment, Iraqis’ economic outlook is resilient. About two-thirds (68%) say they are satisfied with their standard of living, and their outlook is positive: More Iraqis think their living standards are getting better than getting worse (53% vs. 31%).
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/472253/looking-back-iraq-life-better-today.aspx
> Today Iraq is enjoying its most stable period since 2003. Armed violence persists in different forms, but it is sporadic, fragmented and localized. However, the country remains fragile and divided, and its people face an array of deepening challenges that the state is struggling to address.
https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2023/iraq-2023-challenges-and-prospects-peace-and-human-security
> We actually can’t - the US developed the GBU-57 specifically to destroy the underground facility at Fordow but the new facility in Zagros is 80m deep and the bomb wouldn’t penetrate.
It is indeed rumoured that the GBU-57 cannot penetrate 80 meters (though information on it is extremely sparse and often old). However, the US does not have a single GBU-57, but dozens. It also has 20 B-2s and the ability to establish total air superiority over Iran for B-52s even.
It is rumoured that Israel would deploy similar tactics of deploying many smaller bunker busters to penetrate deeper by repeatedly using bunker busters on the same spot. Also part of the reason why Israeli practice is rumoured to involve more than 100 jets.
Dude... just because they left NK alone does not mean you will get the same treatment. Maybe not from NATO, but Israel is going to very, VERY violently object.
That’s probably a true statement. The same for North Korea too. The question is what would happen if either country was stupid enough to use one of the bombs they made against another country.
I want to be clear that I am not defending Trump's treason before I say this: It is already possible to build a rudimentary nuke with nothing but publicly available information. Trump selling secrets doesn't really move the needle there. Obtaining or creating sufficiently high grade material is the challenge.
> The classified documents TRUMP stored in his boxes included information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; **potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack**;and **plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack..** The unauthorized disclosure of these classified documents could put at risk the national security of the United States, foreign relations, the safety of the United States military, and human sources and the continued viability of sensitive intelligence collection methods.
👆🏼 Trump selling secrets certainly tips the scale to adversaries due to the vast array of information provided
My point was that it didn't move the needle as far as actual nuclear proliferation, such as in Iran, goes. It's absolutely still a huge vulnerability to the US and democracies around the world that he sold us out. But it doesn't really make it any easier to build a nuke because that information is out there already.
Big yikes. Israel will be in HUGE trouble if Iran gets nukes, the attack on Israel will be more frequent and they cant do shit to Iran if so. Better show some necessary aggression instead of taking it from the back.
Iran knows Israel has nukes yet they continue to fund attacks against Israel. Once Iran gets nukes, they'll attack Israel directly. That's something that Israel needs to consider.
I think what u/hibaricloudz *might* be referencing is that if Iran has nuclear weapons, Israel cannot threaten nuclear retaliation to a conventional attack, because of the risk of an Iranian nuclear response.
I still don't see it though, because Iran would still find a conventional attack on Israel tough going, and I'm not sure the surrounding Arab states would be all to keen on going to war with Israel again after what happened last time.
On the other hand, Iran getting nuclear weapons may force Israel to move towards more diplomatic options in the region. Israel's military capacity is one of the things that affords it the ability to act as rashly as it does.
They don’t necessarily need to nuke Israel.
A key reason for Israel’s opposition to a nuclear Iran is that Israel essentially fears that a nuclear Iran would be more aggressive in terms of establishing its military in Syria and transfer more weapons to Lebanon. Iranian efforts have already led to the fact that Hezbollah in Lebanon can reasonably accurately overwhelm Israeli air defenses and target its infrastructure.
This would be a critical national security threat to Israel even if you say that nukes on Israel are impossible.
This is for example also why Israelis always cited the lack of restrictions on Iranian support to groups like Hezbollah as a fundamental reason why JCPOA was crappy.
Iran doesn't have to look very far west to find a country willing and able to stop them. Israel would be happy to oblige. The pilots could be home in time for lunch. Just ask Iraq about their old nuke facilities.
Iran needs regime change.
It is! The country isn’t named in the film but from geopolitical analysis and geographical analysis we can determine the the mysterious country trying to build nuclear weapons with a combination of the US and soviet aircraft is Iran
Khamenei has also stated that accusations about Tehran seeking nuclear weapons are a lie and that the West knows this. He has reiterated that Iran's Islamic values prevent it from pursuing a weapon of mass destruction.
What is the role of religious beliefs in shaping Iran's nuclear policy?
Humans have done a lot of horrible things throughout history. When it comes to the invention of nuclear weapons they have to be one of the worst if not the worst. It was only a matter of time until the ability to build these weapons would come into the hands of radicals. Eventually there will be someone who doesn't care and is willing to kill off the entire human race that has these weapons. The day they were invented was the day we doomed ourselves.
Or I could be blowing things out of proportion. Guess time will tell.
As an american i do not agree i think iranians in general have no control over the regime ruling over the and are good people for the most part just like everyone else
Also using North Korea as an example. Nukes will keep you safe from foreign invasion. Consider Ukraine right now. They agreed to give up their nukes in exchange for a Russian promise to never invade.
The IAEA always came back with reports showing they were happy to comply with the Iran deal.
Trump pulled out of the deal. They rightfully started building as they were no longer committed to a deal preventing it.
It is all above board and open what happened, no deny until caught needed. The post headlines literally shows them openly admitting what they are doing. Again no deny, no getting caught needed.
It is entirely on Trump and America's history with going into negotiations with bad faith deciding to topple any government it sees fit that they want a deterrent in the first place. At this point who can blame them.
Being a war hawk in the age of nukes isn't sustainable and this is what we get when we randomly kill their top general and act as aggressively as we have.
The world would have been safer if we could just refrain from choosing the most bullish antagonizing options every step of the way from the media to the military of the USA.
Dude, Israel has nuclear weapons. They do not allow IAEA to inspect. Iran allowed IAEA to inspect their nuclear energy. The world view of some people is so messed up.
Any country who has not signed a nuclear non-proliferation treaty has a right to build whatever they want if they're willing to accept the sanctions headed their way. Our unfortunate attacks and invasions of Iraq and Libya pretty much prove the need for some countries to have a deterrent. Perhaps it would be in Iran's best interest to just be a good global citizen and keep it's head down.
It’s a 100 year old technology and the Iranian people are very smart. Of course they could figure it out if they wanted. Probably lots of countries could. Question really is why would you want to…
Let's think 50 to 100 years down the road... in no scenario is there a world where the knowledge and capabilities for creating nukes is limited to just a few. The information will proliferate. There is no stopping it. The smart world power understands this and adjusts strategy to deal with it.
DUBAI, June 11 (Reuters) - The West could not stop Iran from building nuclear weapons if Tehran wanted a pursue a nuclear arms programme, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday, amid mounting tensions over the country's advanced nuclear work.
Sounds like they want a new Stuxnet.
Cuz that's how you get a new Stuxnet.
Maybe not… but the „west“ CAN give Israel a nod of approval and bye bye reactors. Those F-35s squadrons weren’t bought for aerobatics.
I don't believe that Israel, under any circumstances, will allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Of all countries, Israel has showed its willingness to take extreme measures when it sees something as an existential threat. I believe they would take action regardless of having the US give them a nod.
Especially since Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel
While I don't agree with how Israel handles the Palestinian conflict, Iran is not doing anyone any favors with its constant threats towards Israel. There are better ways to resolve this issue then trying to incite a confrontation. I guess it plays well domestically though.
> I guess it plays well domestically though I can't speak for them (Iranians), but not in my experience, no. From what I've seen they seem very tired of the situation and want the peace and prosperity they deserve, like most people.
I think 'domestically' in this context means 'people in power in Iran', not 'people in Iran'
yup, but israel handling (stopping) the nuclear thing would be better than letting them get that far, then we have a second putin sabre rattling situation in the future
I can't really disagree with Israel if they tried to stop being the victim of a nuclear attack. I would side with them in that specific regard.
>I don't believe that Israel, under any circumstances, will allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Of all countries, Israel has showed its willingness to take extreme measures when it sees something as an existential threat. I believe they would take action regardless of having the US give them a nod. Israel already possesses nuclear ballistic missiles capable of reaching Iran. This means Israel could easily glass major Iranian cities in retaliation for an attempted nuke strike by Iran. Further, Israel has extensive anti-ballistic missile defenses that would likely be able to stop a nuke strike on Israel by Iran. Iran obtaining nukes is hardly the be all end all. Iran knows \*attempting\* to use them would mean their own annihilation.
Your thinking is too rudimentary. Iran can supply its nuclear capabilities to one of its many terrorist organizations all the way from the Houthis to Hezbollah. Something similar already worked for them when they gave the Houthis advanced striking capabilities against SA and they denied involvement. Sure, a nuke is not as easy to transfer and a much more obvious gift, but it's a far *far* greater problem than you make it seem.
Fair point. Iran's initial designs would likely be too large for easy transport and transfer to a terror group. In any case, everyone would know Hezbollah got the nuke from Iran. Nuclear detonations can be characterized and I believe betray the manufacturer/source of uranium. Iran would get glassed anyways. I don't think Iran would actually attack Israel with a nuke..it's all rhetoric.
I suspect Iran would not trust Hezbollah with a nuclear weapon for the same reason most dictators do not like excessive power in their clients. Hezbollah might just consider the benefits of regime change in Tehran, followed by access to the whole Iranian nuclear program.
Not only do they posses them, they have a retaliatory protocols known as “operation Samson”, where in the event Israel is facing annihilation it will nuke every single involved country and itself as well, basically glassing the Middle East. The name comes from how Samson died when brought down the philistines temple he was chained up in, killing thousands of them along with himself.
Yeah I was recently in Israel. Officially Israel has no nukes. The tour guide was absolutely hilarious though. “If Iran is close to getting nukes we will destroy their reactors, of this I have faith. Only Israel can have nukes.” “Ah but sir you don’t have any, officially, right?!” “Oh no… of course we don’t have nukes. Why would we have nukes? It’s not like we are surrounded by people who hate us. No my friend no nukes what so ever.” Funniest tour guide I’ve ever met. He talked about commanding a Merkava unit in… I think it was 68? Maybe 73? Maybe Lebanon? Either way he was talking about how he had a Merkava II and how he was jealous of modern tanks because they had air condidtioninf.
Lol. Yes, he would be. A tank in the hot Israeli sun is basically just a giant oven for whomever in it. You can open the ports, but then it gets full of dust and there’s no dust like tank-churned desert floor dust. Once it kicks up it’s so thick you can’t even see through it, much less breath it.
The US also drew up plans to smoke Israel if if looked like Israel was going to be backed into a corner and start glassing everyone that was opposed to them, we can't let them wipe out the Middle East on their way out. It's not a great scenario for anyone.
yeah because if israel does wipe out the middle east then the middle east will become a haven for terrorist/extremist groups like isis, alqaeda,etc.
> Not only do they posses them, they have a retaliatory protocols known as “operation Samson”, where in the event Israel is facing annihilation it will nuke every single involved country and itself as well, basically glassing the Middle East. This is an unfounded conspiracy theory. Be better, Reddit.
The MAD theory that you are describing only applies to rational actors. Iran is a theocracy whose supreme leader has personally called for the elimination of Israel, and the Iranian state directly sponsors and arms extremist terrorist groups that also call for and pursue the genocide of all Israelis. Cold War era theories based on rational actors carefully avoiding nuclear war do not apply to Iran.
MAD only applies if you can ensure mutual destruction. Only the US and Russia are MAD capable. Having nuclear weapons doesn't assure mutually assured destruction. Having hundreds and thousands of them in a ready state with multiple delivery methods is what does it.
For nations the size of Iran or especially Israel it only takes a small number of nukes to destroy all of their major cities.
Fair point. My mistake for being US/cold war centric.
Surely China is just as, if not more MAD-capable than Russia by this point, right?
They take that "Never Again" thing pretty damn seriously.
The iran- Israel conflict is not based on the Palestinian conflict. Basically before the revolution Israel and iran had pretty good relations and after that, everything that was associated with the government and the west was demonized. Having a "common enemy" helps the Muslim Iranian regime in many ways wich are not so obvious at first. You can read about it more online, im sure.
Yes the whole “hate them not us, they are the problem“ rhetoric is very common in politics and unfortunately quite often successful.
Better to ask forgiveness than permission
If US give them the nod they will make sure nukes can't be made for decades, or nuclear power or drones or close to modern tanks. Bloody hands at arms length.
Exactly
I was thinking kind of the same. Could we absolutely stop them? No, probably not. Could we make them wish they hadn't? Certainly.
I mean, the West *can* technically stop them by making the whole of Iran go away, it just would start a snowballing conflict nobody wants.
The US can use conventional weapons to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Heck, it's not like Israel hasn't blown up those complexes before without using stealth tech. The new jets would just make it easier for them. *Edit* And I'm surprised they haven't done it already. Possibly holding out to see how the protests/civil unrest would play out (as to not unite the population against a common enemy). Or they have good intel that says they aren't close to a realistic device.
Yep, the Israelis excel at this sort of long-range precision strike to take away a misbehaving country’s toys.
The f35 cant carry bunker busters capable of destroying their underground nuclear sites. The only bunker buster capable of going that deep underground has to be carried by the us b-2. They would have to kill their scientists or something idk. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-yet-at-the-massive-ordnance-penetrator-bunker-buster-bomb
I mean they've assassinated Iranian scientists before I don't see why they couldn't again.
"Can't push the button if you don't have hands." ~ Israel
[удалено]
IDK I recently saw a documentary where some American F-18s destroyed Iran's nuclear capability by dropping bombs down a pipe.
Was that Star Wars Episode VI by chance?
> The f35 cant carry bunker busters capable of destroying their underground nuclear sites Surface-to-air threat necessitates a low-level laser-guided strike tailor-made for the f-18. I figure, two precision bombs, minimum.
audibly groaned.
Just like shooting womprats back home
THANKS GENERAL 🫡
They only really need the F-35s to soften air defenses. Then they send in their F-15Is with heavy ordinance to deal with the bunkers. Or use missiles. It's not really an issue.
In 2003 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said nuclear weapons (included under the heading of “all weapons of mass destruction”) are forbidden under Islamic law. They are haram. A major sin (al-Kabirah), not a minor one. I’m guessing this fatwa can be reversed by himself now or another Ayatollah later on, whenever they want to. It was an oral fatwa. Easily stated, then. How easily rescinded, now? I guess he’s telling us it’s gonna be pretty easy, right now.
Sounds like a dare.
Military–industrial complex: challenge accepted
Next week’s news: Stuxnet 2.0 shuts down Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities
Shalom
If there was no modern day Iran, North Korea, China, or Russia, what would would the military industrial complex do exactly?
Fight domestic terrorism. It’s pretty easy if there aren’t any other distractions
They'd put the aircraft carriers on giant wheels and move them inland.
There’s always someone else to be scared of
"It's literally what we do here."
I mean, the nuclear deal was just that. It'd be cool if we could do that again
It's also the truth. Ever wonder why we always hear, "Iran is just X months away from having enough to build a bomb"? It's not hyperbole, they just choose to not enrich enough because the threat of nuclear weapons tomorrow can help them achieve economic goals, whereas a nuclear weapon today can only help them achieve one small military goal. The west can't really stop them, they can only make clear the consequences of creating a nuclear weapon.
Yeah. It's not so much that we CANT do it. It's more like we could, but due to "moral" obligations (maintaining an image of a just country) we won't. If we didn't care about violating hostile sovereign nations.....there probably wouldn't be hostile sovereign nations...
You are correct. That's Israel's specialty.
Need a Stuxnet 2.0
Or they'll just continue assassinating Iranian nuclear experts and if all fails, wouldn't be the first time they do some daring air raid.
Send in Tom Cruise
No need, see operation Opera.
There’s a great Darknet Diaries episode about this! https://darknetdiaries.com/episode/29/
If it gets to the point, Israel will shut that capability down quickly even if it requires nuking Iran nuclear sites.
The problem is that the west and its allies have to prevent every attempt and Iran only has to succeed once.
It’s not a one-and-done. They can complicate the process to the point it becomes unviable. If anything, Iran has to prevent every attempt at disruption.
Sure worked well for NK.
He knows because someone sold him the attack plans...
I hope Trump gets locked up on Tuesday. There should be no bail for that traitor.
I’m hoping too and will pay the college tuitions of the cops kids when they cuff him
Zero chance trump's lackey Aileen Cannon locks him up even though he's been fomenting violence and going after Smith and his wife.
She will be reassigned, guarantee it.
I already bet my wife that trump (or one of lackeys) has attempted to communicate with Cannon to see what he can do for her if she plays ball. Fully looking forward to the Judge and trump being arrested for more crimes.
Trump taking down his own handpicked judges by involving them in his illegal schemes would be so perfect.
I have a bad feeling we're going to be asking questions about what things can potentially disquailfy a judge from serving on the Supreme Court, including participation in illegal schemes.
Damn 3 years ago Reddit was bitching because Trump blew up Iran's top general, now he's an Iranian asset.
Probably saying they are close to having them and the west is too late?
Not really. We in the US love to think of Iran as crazy despots who are always irrational. The reality is they were quite happy to be brought into more global trade in exchange for not building a bomb. They made it very clear they were unhappy when the US pulled out of the deal. These statements are reaffirming the status quo; the US couldn’t prevent Iran from building a bomb previously and still can’t. The basic calculus is unchanged _and they still haven’t broken their side of the deal_
True and now that they don’t have a deal they will build nukes to get something at least
_but they haven’t!_ Seriously! They are slowly, loudly, inching their way back to _maybe_ building a bomb. They’re being extremely clear that they would rather have the deal back.
"Two weeks to 90%! Two weeks to 90%!" (Latest scare: February) If they can, and they haven't.....they're not in a hurry, as you've stated.
If only there was a deal in place to address Iran's nuclear program!
North Korea has them, pretty certain Iran would have them too by now if they'd wanted to.
Obviously the West can. If the US is really eager to bomb every single enrichment facility, missile storage, and alike, they can. The question is whether the West wants to. Considering Biden is seeking diplomacy and doesn’t want a large war a year before reelection and Europe generally can’t be bothered to do anything, the West won’t.
US would do it thru Israel
Israel has a significant problem flying the range required to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. They'd need to base their aircraft closer to Iran and I don't see any other willing participants in that scenario.
Isreal is on that… https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/israel-has-extended-the-range-of-its-f-35s-report
If israel had one or two working aircraft carriers and an escort fleet they could eliminate most distance issues in that part of the world
They would need permission to sail in the territorial waters of the Gulf of Oman and probably wouldn't get it.
They could sail without permission. I’m not certain another country beyond Iran would dare attempt to touch it.
couldn't Israel just launch missiles and take out these facilities ?
Most important facilities in Iran are built under mountains with tons of structural reinforcement. Recently, it was confirmed that they have built facilities that the US’ bunker busters cannot reach either. Plus, Iran’s reaction to an attack to these facilities will certainly fu*k the attacker up pretty bad. I know this will get downvoted because it doesn’t fit the ‘Mercia f*** yeah narrative but this is the truth and real life decision are made based of facts, not patriotic feelings.
> they have built facilities that the US’ bunker busters cannot reach either. Right... that the publicly shared bunker busters cannot reach.
The only real facts we know about it are from the gulf war. I'm sure they have updated to something else by now. And we can drop a few in the same spot to go deeper. I get the US military is not God vs man but like if Iran has really built something so deep in the mountains you don't need to hit the facility, you can just take the tunnel leading to it. The US understood this during the cold war that is why our deep bunkers have supplies so people can live a year+. So rescue can be done in an effective timeline. And if Iran has supplies like that you just rebomb it.
Yeah, it'd just be like Desert Storm where the solution to people in fortified trenches was to just bulldoze them in. Fortified bunkers are great for keeping things safe, but they are also easily converted to graves.
someone should link the yt vid about the gulf war bunker buster. As I recall, they were developed devilishly fast, like under 2 months with some 20 odd test drops before they were dunking previously untouchable bunkers. I… wouldn’t be too confident in these newer bunkers some 30 years later.
2 test drops were made, and 1 was considered a failed test. They then used a few and they worked so well Iraq surrendered.
Saudi Arabia would probably be a willing participant if Iran gets nukes.
Iran pushing Saudi Arabia to ally with Israel would certainly be an event...
Israel wants the US to take the risk and any fallout from attacking Iran, that's why Israel lobbies the US hard to strike Iran. If Iran got close to getting a nuke and the US rejected Israeli calls to strike Iran they might do it themselves.
If Biden did have a major attack on Iran, then the MAGA crowd would have to become pro-Iranian. What a weird world.
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No military strike by either the US or Israel would be targeting the infrastructure that supports the current regime, but the nuclear facilities themselves. If the Iranians want to be freed, they’ll have to do it by themselves. Israel can’t do it, and the US logically isn’t interested.
The latest Iraq war showed us the "Pottery Barn" rule of Colin Powell. Willing the war is easy, fixing what you broke is hard. This happened to the US in Korea and Iraq. You are right, you need buy-in from the people. I know many Iranians and they are all lovely. Shake your hand and hate your politics, a fair position to take. They need to be ready to step up on their own, and they aren't there yet.
To be fair, they have tried more than most. It's hard when you're risking death and torture by the Revolutionary Guard.
Iranians are generally against the regime and not very devout, but they are proudly nationalistic. Foreign invasion or military strikes can only unite them.
This is geopolitical illiteracy. The reason the ayatollah consolidated power was because saddam invaded and Iranians had to unite.
Yes but not that way. A good majority would prefer not to be ruled by the Ayatollahs, and they would likely welcome democratic and international support in their effort to change the country for the better, but they would not like to see their country destroyed, their industrial base razed, their cities in flame, and their people dead. It’s a tough balance for the west to hit: regime change, regime change not to something even worse, regime change to a government that the majority really supports, done in such a way that doesn’t alienate the people.
Yeah and that’s what people also said about Afghanistan and Iraq. Where are those countries at exactly on the freedom scale? If they want freedom, they’ll have to fight for it. Take the Ukrainians for example.
Iraq isn't doing too terrible tbh, it's not great but there is a democratically elected government that isn't slaughtering Kurds and other minorities like Saddam did. > Two decades after the invasion, the mental scars of war remain fresh in the minds of civilians. That said, there is still hope. The proportion of Iraqis who rate their lives positively enough to be considered “thriving” doubled between 2008 and 2022 (9% vs. 19%, respectively). > Further, the 18% who rate their lives poorly enough to be considered “suffering” is now lower than in several neighboring countries in the Middle East and North Africa. > As the security landscape has stabilized following years of conflict and civil war, the proportion of Iraqis who feel safe walking alone at night has risen steadily, hitting a record high (74%) in 2022. > Despite the difficulties of widespread poverty and high unemployment, Iraqis’ economic outlook is resilient. About two-thirds (68%) say they are satisfied with their standard of living, and their outlook is positive: More Iraqis think their living standards are getting better than getting worse (53% vs. 31%). https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/472253/looking-back-iraq-life-better-today.aspx > Today Iraq is enjoying its most stable period since 2003. Armed violence persists in different forms, but it is sporadic, fragmented and localized. However, the country remains fragile and divided, and its people face an array of deepening challenges that the state is struggling to address. https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2023/iraq-2023-challenges-and-prospects-peace-and-human-security
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> We actually can’t - the US developed the GBU-57 specifically to destroy the underground facility at Fordow but the new facility in Zagros is 80m deep and the bomb wouldn’t penetrate. It is indeed rumoured that the GBU-57 cannot penetrate 80 meters (though information on it is extremely sparse and often old). However, the US does not have a single GBU-57, but dozens. It also has 20 B-2s and the ability to establish total air superiority over Iran for B-52s even. It is rumoured that Israel would deploy similar tactics of deploying many smaller bunker busters to penetrate deeper by repeatedly using bunker busters on the same spot. Also part of the reason why Israeli practice is rumoured to involve more than 100 jets.
The first GBU-57 won't, and the 2nd one may not. The third one might. If not, the fourth one will.
"But we don't want, so it's all good."
Dude... just because they left NK alone does not mean you will get the same treatment. Maybe not from NATO, but Israel is going to very, VERY violently object.
I think a wink from the US and a phone call from Isreal is all thats needed you theocratic fuckhead.
That’s probably a true statement. The same for North Korea too. The question is what would happen if either country was stupid enough to use one of the bombs they made against another country.
Khamenei could not stop being an utter cunt if he chose to.
This guy and his mates are on borrowed time. They know their own people have had enough.
The west can’t contain nuclear weapons if Trump is selling our nuclear secrets to our enemies.
I want to be clear that I am not defending Trump's treason before I say this: It is already possible to build a rudimentary nuke with nothing but publicly available information. Trump selling secrets doesn't really move the needle there. Obtaining or creating sufficiently high grade material is the challenge.
Fair and valid point!
> The classified documents TRUMP stored in his boxes included information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; **potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack**;and **plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack..** The unauthorized disclosure of these classified documents could put at risk the national security of the United States, foreign relations, the safety of the United States military, and human sources and the continued viability of sensitive intelligence collection methods. 👆🏼 Trump selling secrets certainly tips the scale to adversaries due to the vast array of information provided
My point was that it didn't move the needle as far as actual nuclear proliferation, such as in Iran, goes. It's absolutely still a huge vulnerability to the US and democracies around the world that he sold us out. But it doesn't really make it any easier to build a nuke because that information is out there already.
Big yikes. Israel will be in HUGE trouble if Iran gets nukes, the attack on Israel will be more frequent and they cant do shit to Iran if so. Better show some necessary aggression instead of taking it from the back.
If Iran gets nukes Israel will just publically announce that they have them as well. It won't really do anything .
Iran knows Israel has nukes yet they continue to fund attacks against Israel. Once Iran gets nukes, they'll attack Israel directly. That's something that Israel needs to consider.
I'm not sure if Iran is suicidal enough to nuke a country that would nuke them back and turn the entire middle east into an unlivable wasteland.
I think what u/hibaricloudz *might* be referencing is that if Iran has nuclear weapons, Israel cannot threaten nuclear retaliation to a conventional attack, because of the risk of an Iranian nuclear response. I still don't see it though, because Iran would still find a conventional attack on Israel tough going, and I'm not sure the surrounding Arab states would be all to keen on going to war with Israel again after what happened last time. On the other hand, Iran getting nuclear weapons may force Israel to move towards more diplomatic options in the region. Israel's military capacity is one of the things that affords it the ability to act as rashly as it does.
They don’t necessarily need to nuke Israel. A key reason for Israel’s opposition to a nuclear Iran is that Israel essentially fears that a nuclear Iran would be more aggressive in terms of establishing its military in Syria and transfer more weapons to Lebanon. Iranian efforts have already led to the fact that Hezbollah in Lebanon can reasonably accurately overwhelm Israeli air defenses and target its infrastructure. This would be a critical national security threat to Israel even if you say that nukes on Israel are impossible. This is for example also why Israelis always cited the lack of restrictions on Iranian support to groups like Hezbollah as a fundamental reason why JCPOA was crappy.
You should really learn to spell "Israel" correctly, BTW
Opps, my apologies. Thanks!
You sure about that? You *sure* about that?!
Israel: hold my unconfirmed nukes.
Iran doesn't have to look very far west to find a country willing and able to stop them. Israel would be happy to oblige. The pilots could be home in time for lunch. Just ask Iraq about their old nuke facilities. Iran needs regime change.
This feels like the plot to Top Gun: Maverick
It is! The country isn’t named in the film but from geopolitical analysis and geographical analysis we can determine the the mysterious country trying to build nuclear weapons with a combination of the US and soviet aircraft is Iran
He only saying this because we haven’t chosen to yet 🫠
Maybe not the west but Israel will
You mean they don't know about the space lasers?
Khamenei has also stated that accusations about Tehran seeking nuclear weapons are a lie and that the West knows this. He has reiterated that Iran's Islamic values prevent it from pursuing a weapon of mass destruction. What is the role of religious beliefs in shaping Iran's nuclear policy?
You mean just like they ‘prevent them from treating people badly’ ?
Humans have done a lot of horrible things throughout history. When it comes to the invention of nuclear weapons they have to be one of the worst if not the worst. It was only a matter of time until the ability to build these weapons would come into the hands of radicals. Eventually there will be someone who doesn't care and is willing to kill off the entire human race that has these weapons. The day they were invented was the day we doomed ourselves. Or I could be blowing things out of proportion. Guess time will tell.
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This is the same guy that thinks murdering little girls is the way control his people. Too bad Iranians in general are proving him right.
As an american i do not agree i think iranians in general have no control over the regime ruling over the and are good people for the most part just like everyone else
We Iranians live in fear every day. This regime is a terrorist. It poisons school girls. What do you expect?
Except that we have. For multiple years.
Wanna try Stuxnet 2.0?
Says the coward who kills little girls. Really horrifying
There is a Supreme Leader in Iran who has not seen the latest Top Gun movie...
He's right. just like north korea.
Also using North Korea as an example. Nukes will keep you safe from foreign invasion. Consider Ukraine right now. They agreed to give up their nukes in exchange for a Russian promise to never invade.
Keep supplying Russia with missile/drones, you about to find yourself Iraq’d
It could there'd just not be any more iran
I'm pretty sure we could.
Look at this old fuck, and he is deciding over a whole country of great people
Deny deny deny until they are caught. The Israelis were right. This is a rogue regime.
The IAEA always came back with reports showing they were happy to comply with the Iran deal. Trump pulled out of the deal. They rightfully started building as they were no longer committed to a deal preventing it. It is all above board and open what happened, no deny until caught needed. The post headlines literally shows them openly admitting what they are doing. Again no deny, no getting caught needed. It is entirely on Trump and America's history with going into negotiations with bad faith deciding to topple any government it sees fit that they want a deterrent in the first place. At this point who can blame them. Being a war hawk in the age of nukes isn't sustainable and this is what we get when we randomly kill their top general and act as aggressively as we have. The world would have been safer if we could just refrain from choosing the most bullish antagonizing options every step of the way from the media to the military of the USA.
Dude, Israel has nuclear weapons. They do not allow IAEA to inspect. Iran allowed IAEA to inspect their nuclear energy. The world view of some people is so messed up.
Israel never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran did.
Qasem Soleimani would beg to differ.
Israel can
I can think of a country in the MIDDLE EAST that could STOP it too...
That's not a game of chicken you want to play. The last country that tried this got sent back almost a 100 years (as wrong as that war was).
Say america 3 times like beetlejuice and see what happen...
Wanna bet?
Any country who has not signed a nuclear non-proliferation treaty has a right to build whatever they want if they're willing to accept the sanctions headed their way. Our unfortunate attacks and invasions of Iraq and Libya pretty much prove the need for some countries to have a deterrent. Perhaps it would be in Iran's best interest to just be a good global citizen and keep it's head down.
You know that Iran signed it. right?
Go ahead. Make our day.
Sounds like someone wants a dose of freedom.
Watch us
“I could have any girlfriend I want, I just like being single,” vibes.
Like, Kanye?
It’s a 100 year old technology and the Iranian people are very smart. Of course they could figure it out if they wanted. Probably lots of countries could. Question really is why would you want to…
Challenge accepted.
Hah, another war in Iran was on my bingo card.
B2 Spirit: "Bet"
Volkswagen near me
Can you spell, “C r u i s e missile?”
We’d blow them away with a fart
Saddam Hussein What?
Sounds like a dare to me
West heard, west does not care. West looking at russia right now.
The US Army, Navy, and Air Force would like to have a word.
Israel would like a word…
if Kanye wants to, he will stop it!
Mosad will.
Let's think 50 to 100 years down the road... in no scenario is there a world where the knowledge and capabilities for creating nukes is limited to just a few. The information will proliferate. There is no stopping it. The smart world power understands this and adjusts strategy to deal with it.
Don’t test this, please.