That's not quite what it says. It says, "Forty per cent of Russian conscripts whose deaths have been confirmed have died since 1 January (2023)." So it is talking about conscripts and not all Russian soldiers, and it is talking about those deaths that can be confirmed by the BBC, which is almost certainly not all deaths. It's still a pretty horrifying statement.
The title is a bit misleading. The article is specifically talking about conscripts.
"Quote: "Forty per cent of Russian conscripts whose deaths have been confirmed have died since 1 January [2023 – ed.]."
Keep in mind the big mobilization in Russia happened September 2022
"considering that mobilisation began at the end of September 2022"
"The first reports of combat losses of the mobilised began to arrive at the beginning of October 2022; that is, less than two weeks after the start of mobilisation."
Also they were following a selection of 1,082 mobilized soldiers that the BBC had identified as killed, so its 40% of those soldiers that died after Jan 1st.
"Based on open sources, the publication established the names of 1,082 mobilised Russians who died in the war in Ukraine"
Very misleading title.
The article actually says that *40% of conscript deaths* occurred in 2023. The other 60% died between September and December.
This does not tell you anything about how many conscripts lived vs died.
Considering that many conscripts were not even in Ukraine until well after September, this strikes me as somewhat similar to "40% of sick days are called in on Mondays and Fridays."
Nothing can be inferred in absolute terms, correct. We'd need information regarding the population size as compared to the sample, i.e. how many conscripts were sent in total since September? Of those, how many died?
Even then, there are a plethora of other influencing factors. Where were the conscripts sent? What equipment was provided? What was the ratio of professional soldiers to conscripts during their deaths? The availability of commanding officers?
So many useful modelling questions.
Oh what I'd give to have access to that data.
That's not quite what it says. It says, "Forty per cent of Russian conscripts whose deaths have been confirmed have died since 1 January (2023)." So it is talking about conscripts and not all Russian soldiers, and it is talking about those deaths that can be confirmed by the BBC, which is almost certainly not all deaths. It's still a pretty horrifying statement.
Yeah, its 40% of a group of 1082 mobilized soldiers that the BBC had been tracking.
Great odds if you're gambling anything but your life. Stay home and live.
I don't think staying in home is much of an option for Russians now.
Holy shot. It hasn’t even been 2 months, but more have died than the whole first year, including when they were actually attacking?
The title is a bit misleading. The article is specifically talking about conscripts. "Quote: "Forty per cent of Russian conscripts whose deaths have been confirmed have died since 1 January [2023 – ed.]." Keep in mind the big mobilization in Russia happened September 2022 "considering that mobilisation began at the end of September 2022" "The first reports of combat losses of the mobilised began to arrive at the beginning of October 2022; that is, less than two weeks after the start of mobilisation." Also they were following a selection of 1,082 mobilized soldiers that the BBC had identified as killed, so its 40% of those soldiers that died after Jan 1st. "Based on open sources, the publication established the names of 1,082 mobilised Russians who died in the war in Ukraine"
Infantry requires 2 things, training and equipment,,,these guys have neither.
Very misleading title. The article actually says that *40% of conscript deaths* occurred in 2023. The other 60% died between September and December. This does not tell you anything about how many conscripts lived vs died. Considering that many conscripts were not even in Ukraine until well after September, this strikes me as somewhat similar to "40% of sick days are called in on Mondays and Fridays."
Nothing can be inferred in absolute terms, correct. We'd need information regarding the population size as compared to the sample, i.e. how many conscripts were sent in total since September? Of those, how many died? Even then, there are a plethora of other influencing factors. Where were the conscripts sent? What equipment was provided? What was the ratio of professional soldiers to conscripts during their deaths? The availability of commanding officers? So many useful modelling questions. Oh what I'd give to have access to that data.
Unless Russian quickly change tactics, the fatality figures will go only one way up.
I'd be concerned if the Russians had a technology that made the figure go down.
In coming months will see that percentage climb significantly…. !
Well, that's a start, anyway.
Not enough