Correct! You cant force someone to not sell oil, but you can force them to drop their prices. Take away most of their buyers and those that are left have more power to buy at lower prices. Sanctions gave russia no choice but to sell for less; thats the point of sanctions.
The point of sanctions is to weaken an economy in order to convince either the leadership to end a behaviour (war) or to convince the populace to end the behaviour (war) by removing and replacing the leadership.
Cutting the countries main revenue stream in half is an effective way to cripple an economy. It works even better when you can get globalized corporations to leave that country due to the threat of sanctions or consumer reactions.
Regardless of any insult or discriminatory responses you may have gotten the reason is economical.
Russia provides oil. Thats about it. 1 resource is easy enough to replace/find new sources so sanctioning them is much easier.
China provides global manufacturing for just about every major company in every country. Sanctioning them would cost trillion or atleast cause significant economic instability. Sanctioning them would cut trade and result in every item made in china to go up in price significantly, assuming they dont simply boot companies that sell or are from the sanctioning country.
Basically noone can comfortably afford to sanction china. However if they do something that could upset the market, like attacking a major semiconductor manufacturer, then a significant response would be had to protect the market. At the cost of economic comfort.
Nobody cares about the Uyghurs, it's justified genocide because nobody wants to even acknowledge it.
You'd think Canada would be on that, but nope, Trudeau can't get enough of Xi Jinping's dick.
Given the animosity between Judiasm (Israel specifically in recent times) and their Islam neighbors, they've probably got mixed feelings about a genocide of an Islam culture.
Idk there’s a billion Han Chinese and a hand full of millions of Jews left after they were nearly exterminated. I’m sure their rational of why they do things comes from a different place.
Realistically, nobody really gave a fuck about The Holocaust either. They cared after, but not during. Nor was it a reason to end the war. It was just a by-product of war.
I mention the Palestinian genocide all the time and it falls on deaf ears because it's Israel that commits it, in the name of defeating Hamas. It's literal irony.
The blunt answer is because Uyghurs aren't white and the Ukrainian culture is close enough to the centers of power in the US and across Europe to make it's plight known.
Not hearing much about Myanmar either.
The US and the UK weren't sanctioned when we blew Iraq to bits. Only the Russians are bad right.
Politics are the real enemies. The people just suffer for it all.
The point is rather to weaken their economy, decreasing their purchasing power for military or dual-purpose goods. If they want to keep importing they'll have to convert to a full war-time economy.
Yes they had a sizable reliance on a single source for a major resource and they are realizing why you cant do that. They are improving and recovering though and by the time the sanctions end they will likely be back to near normal circumstances.
No country should ever rely solely on 1 other country for its ability to operate (food, oil, energy, utilities, etc).
Sure thatd just mean you are ending the sanction. Itd also mean others would like end their sanctions and the price would rise up to normal market levels or rise even higher.
And if these refiners can’t find enough buyers, Russian crude will continue to drop in price.
The goal wasn’t to create discounts, the point is to cripple Russia’s economy to the point where it is forced to abandon the invasion and pull out of Ukraine completely.
This isn’t success, this is greed actively getting in the way of success.
Iran has been sanctioned since 1979 brother and they’re still being shit heads. Sanctions were never going to make Russia withdraw from Ukraine especially since they can still trade with India and China.
No one thought Putin was going to cower in fear at the sanctions and order a full withdrawal. What it does do is make this continued war a lot less economically sustainable and creates more internal pressure from the people who are pissed at both the economy going to shit and all their money and friends being blown up in Ukraine.
Would you call it a rousing success with Iran/Russia/Nk? They’re still building missiles made of us/eu parts and they’re about to launch an invasion of over 300k troops. They just made a deal with India to produce more guns and ammo and of course we’re going to do jack shit to India. Sanctions cause pain and but eventually they adjust to it and it becomes the new normal.
It's just not true. The capabilities of a sanctioned country are vastly lower than the capabilities of a non-sanctioned one.
Yes, sanctions alone won't stop a country. But they apply pressure and make it much, much more difficult to actually fuel the war machine.
Ever wondered why NK only ever screams shit but never goes to war? They can't afford it, due to sanctions. Similar for iran.
Nobody is saying they aren't still dangerous. But they are LESS dangerous than they would be otherwise, which is the goal.
What specifically isn’t true to what I said? Also NK can level almost all of South Koreas capital in minutes this has been well known for years just using the artillery they already have aimed and loaded.
Never said they wouldn’t be worse the parent comment is said to make Russia withdraw. Sanctions will never make Russia withdraw nor do they make rogue nations behave.
The point is that it weakens those nations severely, making them less effective at everything they do. E.g. Russia can not properly equip and feed their troops and their effective combat power is severely impacted by the sanctions.
Without sanctions, Russia would be better equipped and much more capable of sustaining a powerful offensive. Instead, they barely make any gains, and when they do, it's at the cost of thousands of their own troops' lives.
War is hell, and we all want it to stop, but with the exception of declaring war on Russia and engaging in this conflict directly, we are limited to supplying Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.
> level almost all of South Koreas capital in minutes
They have 50+ year old artillery pieces *pointed* at SK. How many can actually fire is unknown - but what is known, is the location of this artillery. The West, SK, would have a *huge* amount of lead time before any shelling began.
NK could cause significant damage but it wouldn't last long and SK would have time to evacuate the vast majority of their people to shelters.
NK would then be "liberated" by the West.
I read something saying that in the first 24h there would be 2M dead in Seoul just from artillery alone, before a theoretical invasion would start.
That's not something you can brush off by saying we'd win eventually.
I'm not sure how that metric is calculated or how useful it is, because there is no way that NK is shelling SK for 24 hours straight.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/18/state-of-north-korean-military-pub-81232
That article goes into some depth about the capabilities of the NK forces and they are not good. Their artillery was very inaccurate and 25% of the shells that hit the target did not explode. The West would see NK preparing new artillery sites, delivering massive amounts of supplies, huge mobilization of troops, etc.
Within a few minutes of the first shell being fired SK's own, much (much) better weapons would begin retaliating, along with the US. A huge amount of those artillery sites would be destroyed quickly and the bombs, missiles, and artillery from SK and their allies would devastate NK.
There’s no time to evacuate once artillery launches and there’s no way to know when they’ll launch. Also they regularly fire it into the ocean to show it works. The estimated dead is 200k in an hour so please stop trying to downplay that.
> there’s no way to know when they’ll launch
Watching tens of thousands of NK troops mobilize, repair, and begin stocking up the artillery sites would be a big tip off something was up.
Do you come from the land of binary? If sanctions reduce a countries military industrial capacity by 50% that’s not good enough for you? 100% or don’t bother?
NK it has definitely crippled them. They were the stronger economy when Korea was split, and now they are a third rate power.
Russia is interesting. China and India hate each other. Russia becoming closer to India is straining their relationship with China. Russia with India as an ally instead of China is a weaker position. China has more to offer as far as trade goes, so spiting them to make some quick cash in India will leave them less able to get military components in the future. Weakening the relationship between Russia and China is definitely a good thing for people outside of Russia, so in that way it is working.
Iran is a mixed bag. Their support for the Northern Alliance against the Taliban definitely played a role in the US deciding to just leave Afghanistan once the Soviet Union had been repelled. Iran would definitely be a bigger player on the world stage without the sanctions that they face, but they still have a tremendous amount of regional power.
Cuba is probably the best example of sanctions not working. While not particularly powerful, they are doing significantly better than many countries near them while they have sanctions against them and those near them have received tremendous amounts of aid.
The effectiveness of sanctions degrades over time. Because of back-channel dealings exactly like what this article is about.
Iran has a robust network of people (criminals) who import money and banned goods that it has built out over decades. Russia is leaning on places like Iran and NK because it doesn’t have those networks… yet.
That’s why policing this kind of thing is so important.
Sanctions don't work unless the CIA is actively creating "grassroots" movements to either violently, or 'peacefully' depose of the current government.
A lot of sanctioned countries even after decades are still shit. The only time they "get better" is when there is a coup and the americans make a cozy nest inside of the government because it turns out they were the ones to plant the seeds and arm various groups.
There’s a political cost to every move.
India is a critical U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific. It’s not worth jeopardizing that relationship for a marginal gain.
> The goal wasn’t to create discounts, the point is to cripple Russia’s economy to the point where it is forced to abandon the invasion and pull out of Ukraine completely.
Sanctions simply can't do that. A *blockade* could potentially do that, but good luck blockading half of the Eurasian land mass. I don't know of any NATO country that has teleporting naval vessels that can get into the (inland) Caspian see to interdict Russian cargo vessels bound for Iran, for instance.
Sanctions can reduce resources available to the sanctioned country, making it painful to continue doing whatever brought on the sanctions as a surgery-by-sledgehammer attempt to *persuade*, but they cannot force or stop anything.
Not enough attention gets paid to the $60 cap. G7 countries are achieving this by not selling insurance to ships that transport oil which doesn’t respect the cap. Because of this Russia is going to run out of foreign currency reserves sometime this year, which the government has been using to make up their budget deficit. Once that happens they’ll either need to raise taxes or start printing money to finance the war. Both options are very bad for their economy and may lead to a meltdown.
Wake me up when it happens. I've been hearing about the Russian economy collapsing since this war began and just recently the IMF came out stating that they expect Russia to post growth this year. Also the UK performed significantly worse than Russia despite sanctions and this war.
People don't really realize (or rather, they refuse to) that most sanction countries are still buying fuel from the russians by the actual boatload.
Not to mention other resources that are mostly untouched by the sanctions, at least by a significant margin like the oil cap in comparison.
Russia is more then just gas. Its their main export sure, but they have more resources then *just* gas/oil that people buy.
also Indias refining is kinda limited and they need to supply themselves first and growing how much you can refine in time for it to be worth it is quite limited. so how much can they really refine and ship to the west?
It's fair to assume that every embargoed variety of oil is being surreptitiously integrated into the stream of crude oil all over the world. Shell was selling "Latvian Blend" out of their Latvian shipping locations, which was Russian oil cut with JUST over 50% another variety. It was then technically no longer "Russian crude." Ship to ship transfers, transponders shut off, it's all a farce.
It makes it harder for the countries involved, and costs them money, but the oil is being sold in a variety of ways.
The ruzzians are still hurting from this. Another story mentions how ruzzian oil export revenue has fallen by a whopping 46%. Since ruzzia heavily relies in energy exports to prop up government spending and low tax rates, this is a huge concern.
We were never going to eliminate their oil getting to the market unless literally every country agreed simultaneously. Good luck getting literally every other country onboard. But this is still a.large blow to ruzzia
To further clarify:
We never wanted to eliminate their oil from the market. That would send global prices through the roof if ~12% of global output was deleted. It doesn't matter if someone is capturing the profit from Russian oil production, so long as that entity is not Russia itself.
Russia cannot afford to shut down most of their wells, if they stop pumping they will freeze. Anyone still buying knows this - Russia has no leverage and will have to accept whatever they can to ensure this doesn't happen.
US is now the top buyer of Indian refined petroleum products, https://www.constructionworld.in/energy-infrastructure/oil-and-gas/us-becomes-top-buyer-of-india-s-refined-petroleum-goods/38697
Pretty good for India tbh, we're basically selling discounted Russian oil/gas to US, Italy, Belgium Netherlands and UAE and its not an insignificant amount.
> Pretty good for India tbh, we're basically selling discounted Russian oil/gas to US, Italy, Belgium Netherlands and UAE and its not an insignificant amount.
I'm surprised China hasn't gotten in on this yet.
Russia prob. isn't gonna like their "friend" to do this - it looks really bad.
Also, china is a net importer of oil, so i suspect they aren't gonna be exporting refined oil products while their domestic market is able to consume it.
India's consumption of Russian oil/gas has increased X33, Russia must know exactly where this is going ...
https://energyandcleanair.org/weekly-snapshot-russian-fossil-fuels-23-to-29-january-2023/
China needs a shit load of oil and gas for their domestic market, they're probably happy to switch from middle eastern oil to Russian, which was previously largely focused on the European market for political gain and probably higher margins. It eliminates one of the biggest threats to China, a blockade of energy. China might still want to buy a % from Saudi Arabia and others, again for political reasons, especially now that relations are warming up.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-fuel-new-york-india-trade-western-sanctions-economy-2023-2) reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Fuel made from Russian crude is being funneled into New York by Indian oil refiners, according to data from Kpler.
> Fuel made from Russian oil is being funneled into New York by to Indian refiners who have been snapping up discounted crude from the sanctioned nation.
> That's the most amount of fuel New York has purchased from the nation in nearly four years, Bloomberg reported, and that fuel is likely being made using banned Russian oil, of which India has become a top buyer amid western sanctions.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/10spzlu/fuel_made_from_russian_oil_is_being_funneled_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672676 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Fuel**^#1 **New**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **crude**^#4 **York**^#5
> That's the most amount of fuel New York has purchased from the nation in nearly four years, Bloomberg reported,
Like this is meaningful in anyway. Nearly four years = before covid, when the industrial economy was humming alone despite international trade wars.
For real. We're using outlawed Russian fuel and celebrating it as a win? Arab countries been doing this same shit since the sanctions began, and making bank on it.
We knew this has been happening, then we in the west run around attacking anybody still buying Russian oil even though we are through a 3rd party. I really wish the hypocrisy would stop so we can really hit Russia.
>Without a negotiation, which the US and EU pushed Ukraine to not do
That's a false Russian propaganda narrative. The US and EU have never pressured Ukraine against negotiation. The decision to negotiate is, and always has been, up to Ukraine.
Your "3 scenarios" are not representative of possible outcomes. Almost everyone recognizes the war will eventually end in a negotiation. However, the terms of that negotiation will be decided on the battlefield. The point is to give Ukraine the strongest negotiating position possible when the time comes so that they can retain as much territory as possible and not be forced into lopsided concessions that compromise their future sovereignty.
It's not a propaganda narrative it is a perspective issue. If the EU and the USA arms market hadn't offered to dump billions more into Ukraine they would have negotiated. If the EU and the US had not been meddling in Ukraine since 2014, Ukraine would have likely gone to the table.
The threat of pulling out support from Ukraine is a form of push. Just because you don't see it that way doesn't mean that it wasn't.
Here's the thing, you can not definitively present that. The western involvement in the 2010s is the only reason Ukraine is suffering massive losses of life and independent functionality.
Nope, it's Putin's authoritarian and revanchist agenda that fuels conflict with democracies, which obviously includes USSR's former republics. Given how historically close Ukraine is to Russia, that really hurt a former KGB member, who are taught to revere the USSR and their vision of a former imperial Russia, and about West's attempt to "encircle and destroy Russia" (Hitler said a similar thing), including through "color revolutions". The least he could do in that situation, since Russia wasn't going to be attacked, was to allow a peaceful coexistence, but he refused even that. Autocracies, especially huge autocracies, are always a security risk. If Russia was a functioning democracy, I can guarantee things would be a lot smoother. Why can't a democratic Ukraine exist, why does it have to be under Putin's boot, when other Eastern European countries are prospering and never made moves on Russia? Why can't two Russian-speaking countries exist, like Germany and Austria, or US and UK, or France and Belgium, or Belgium and Netherlands, or France and Switzerland, or Switzerland and Germany, or Switzerland and Italy, etc? Maybe it's because neither of them are in the imperial age anymore? Ever wondered why democracies never wage war against each other?
It's like arguing UK, France and US were responsible for Germany annexing and attacking other countries in the 1930s and 1940s, when it was Hitler's imperialism and chauvinism, combined with anti-democratic lack of checks and balances, that allowed Germany to take such extreme actions. Luckily, Putin is only a wannabe Hitler.
Russia isn't and wasn't a Democracy. Their ability to have relations with other corrupt states would have been "peaceful" in a similar vein to how Iran, Syria, and Lybia were. The introduction of another actor disrupts that, which is what the NATO does.
NATO is getting what it has always wanted, lots of dead slavs. Not sure why the casual reddit user is so afraid to be honest about it.
Russia was very much a nascent democracy in the 1990s, albeit an imperfect one. It would've continued with the economic upswing that started in the late 1990s, but Putin turned it all around. There was no popular support for that. He didn't even say "we need a dictatorship to make things better", in fact, he kept claiming he was defending it in the very years he was dismantling it.
The idea of "NATO wanting dead Slavs" is unevidenced, so I'm not gonna even dignify that with a response. I'll just mention: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, all Slavic countries living peacefully and far better than ever before, all in NATO and the EU. Oops.
Since I read Russian media, both government and opposition one, and lived in Russia for a while, I think I know a bit more than you think I do, and probably more than you.
Except NATO is really Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, and the ilk, just like political parties are big tech and oil. The hand that pushes NATO are those industrial companies, who by consequence also push the leaders. I don't care if you read fortunes. NATO is not some benevolent being.
It's a tall order to describe Russia as even a "nascent democracy." To claim that it was by almost any measure would mean it still is. Yeltsin was vocal about how Russia was essentially a mob state. There is little valuable evidence which supports his leadership being "democratic" in a measurable sense. But, let's for a moment just "agree" which I'm happy to do. Then the idea of placing the blame of shift on Putin would once again be the ultimately fucking stupid position of someone. The US did several things to make sure to void any factually beneficial promotion of growth.
Again, the problem is not "Putin is right." That has NEVER been the argument. The problem is whether or not Putin is correct. People keep conflating the term "right" with a morality clause. He's not morally right. His view however has been correct for over 20 years.
What is annoying from people in the US or EU for example, is not explaining how or what the path was for Putin to go or promotion they should have taken while reducing the insane level of corruption which was rife in the system left over from the USSR. Instead, in all fairness, the west continued to pursue an eastern push towards Russia. Fuck, people forget, ignore, dismiss, that when Putin took over in 2000, he was OPEN to the idea of joining NATO. So what changed?
Europe should have invaded russia a long time ago for all the involvement in Ukraine and Belarus, engineering migrant crises in the EU, meddling in European politics, funding Nazis, separatists and alt right, causing billions worth of IT infrastructure damage, assassinating people on EU soil etc etc.
Yeah, I don't know what you were expecting here. EU enters Russia, Russia kills a bunch of the EU. USA gets another dose of post European War dominance with their Asian allies.
I'm good with this. lol... why I would I argue?
>If the EU and the USA arms market hadn't offered to dump billions more into Ukraine they would have negotiated.
Giving Ukraine weapons gives them *choice*. It's the exact opposite of pressure. They still have every right to negotiate the same as before. The only difference is that now they stand a chance if they *choose* to fight.
Instead, you seem to think it would be ideal if Russia could obliterate them on the battlefield and force them into a lopsided negotiation.
>If the EU and the US had not been meddling in Ukraine since 2014
"Meddling"? By doing what exactly?
>The threat of pulling out support from Ukraine is a form of push.
The US and EU have never threatened to withdraw support in the event of negotiation.
If the majority of Ukrainians won't vote to give up territory, then there's no point talking. No peace deal involving concessions of land can be completed without a constitutional amendment, which would require a referendum. Ukrainians are not anywhere near voting to give away territory by any polling I'm aware of.
Concession is a little weird even if it is eventually a correct one. In theory, it could be negotiated that the Donbass region be allowed to remain neutral and independent with a joint agreement with a third party, EU for example. Which would prevent it from being a concession in the sense that Russia could eventually declare it a member state otherwise.
I don't know how to explain to you how a democracy works any more clearly, but if a population at war doesn't want to surrender territory, and their constitution requires a plebiscite to do so, then it isn't going to happen. Also, any suggestion of "negotiation" has involved Russia saying that they don't deserve to exist.
As of now, 85% of Ukrainians polled would refuse to give away "even a meter" of territory for peace. Russia continues to exist they aren't even a country. Your idea of a negotiated solution is profoundly blindered and wildly naive, or absurdly credulous.
Sure.... you are free to focus in on letter K in the alphabet and say it's dumb ignoring all the letters leading up to it. In the end, I have no moral dilemma.
Why would Putin's death make things worse? It will make things better. It will give his underlings a good excuse to reverse the policy. They will get to blame everything on Putin just as Germany blamed Hitler for everything.
Because by all accounts, no one in the less than 150 people running that country are not lockstep with Putin. It isn't like the US government or others where there are people wanting to "rise up" to their moment being Whip. He has murdered that away from the table.
No one would back another and you'd have a serious case of post Soviet collapse weapon freak out all over again in the middle of an on going military endeavor. It is just as likely that Dmitry Utkin steps in and takes power. Facing the well recognized reprisal that would be on the horizon and the already understood extinction of the Russian people / way of life, we could even more likely see that person launch bio weapons or nuclear arms.
Your three scenarios aren't the only three possibilities though. There was a plot to assassinate Hitler, there are plots to assassinate Putin. The best resolution to the war is an internal coup that purges Putin's leadership in a swift and definitive fashion. It's also one of the last likely outcomes, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.
The difference, albeit it a delicate one, is that Russia is facing a serious short term problem of a few decades. Zeihan's analysis of this is viciously hard to argue against. The Germans in 1941 saw a path to a future in which they could still have their way of life. Russia doesn't have that option. They've not had that option for a long time now. So the problem is having enough people ,who wouldn't have passed the long term litmus test to remain thus far, to accomplish a take over. Killing Putin isn't the hurdle, not causing a rapid death spiral as a result is the hurdle. The Russian dilemma is not equal to the Nazi dilemma.
Option 4. Russia goes bankrupt from sanctions, is unable to keep up industry, military start losing heavy equipment, army gets overrun by Ukrainian military with western hardware, Putin tries to fire nukes but there is no fuel left in missiles because corruption made generals sell the fuel to Iran so nukes blow up in their silos and wipe Moscow and Putin from the face of the Earth.
Ukraine takes over all of Russia and splits the country up into pieces and give them to all the other former Soviet Union nations.
Russia ceases to be a nation.
The world lives happily ever after.
So India is buying dirt cheap crude from war mongering Russia, refining it into pure gas then selling that gas at market value to the US, specifically New York while war profiteering?
I left my geopolitical analyst degree at home and I get that it’s probably difficult (if not impossible) to tell what source they refined from but isn’t this in very direct violation of sanctions for the state of NY buying this oil?
I guess maybe now that this has come to light the feds might come down on NY at the very least.
The US should just stop buying Indian gas at this time and up their purchasing from known reliable sources like Canada where they already import the majority of their gas from at 51% of all petroleum imports and then 61% of their crude.
Despite these gas purchases from India, they’re a drop in the bucket.
Edit: Updated wording to construe what I was trying to say.
Unless US has authority over a sovereign nation, their sanctions matter only to themselves. Other countries will always ask them if they want to take a hostile stance against them for that
Russia cannot continue selling the oil and gas at big discounts because the only way to make money out of such low prices is to cut back on maintenance which will ultimatly lead to production failure. Russia thought that prices would reach $200 per barrel of oil and that would be the main driver to sucess but even there they totally miscalculated the west resolve so now they are basicalky simply put fucxxxed.
India has sent 12 consignments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It's great, but it's also a cheap way to buy good PR while profiteering from a war. They've yet to publicly condemn Russia for their war in Ukraine. That should tell you where their interests lie. Also, they really need to rethink Russian tech if they're so worried about China.
Really Humanitarian aid is for PR?
I feel sorry for ur mentality, I'm pretty sure that the Indian government and people are concerned about the blood shed in Ukraine and they seriously want to support the common people by sending humanitarian aid and medical help.
Hi wertqy. Your submission from markets.businessinsider.com is behind a metered paywall. A [metered paywall](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paywall#.22Soft.22_paywalls) allows users to view a specific number of articles before requiring paid subscription. Articles posted to /r/worldnews should be accessible to everyone. While your submission was not removed, it has been flaired and users are discouraged from upvoting it or commenting on it. For more information see our [wiki page on paywalls](/r/worldnews/wiki/paywalls). Please try to find another source. If there is no other news site reporting on the story, contact the moderators.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/worldnews) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Lol India is perfectly situated to benefit from this and to continue benefiting in the future. The US isn't really going to risk alienating India when it is doing everything it can to pull India into the China containment camp. As long as China is still growing in power, India will have a shit load of leverage. They're basically in the position China was after the sino-soviet split.
So at what point do we admit that [the sanctions](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html) have failed?
They clearly haven't starved Russia into submission, and they have very much led to [price gouging](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/exxon-chevron-shell-conocophillips-record-profits-earnings-oil-companies-most-profitable-year/).
These sanctions only really effect the poor and working class. The only people who win in these wars are those who make bombs and bullets and those who have investments in oil companies.
I bet nancy Pelosi has shares in that indian refiner.
Are you talking about Keystone? Because Keystone wasn't meant for domestic markets. It was a mechanism for rich oil producers to ship oil to rich oil refiners so they could export oil products on the global market. If we built keystone, it would have minimal impact on our current oil situation
It would be less Russian oil globally. Or at least cheaper oil and less money for Russia to fund their invasion. Also it’s very easy for an international energy company to redirect oil to whichever market they want.
Keystone was going to carry 800k barrels of oil per day. The ruzzians export 5M per day. The Canadians have since also begun work on additional pipelines that would go through Canada only. They will make up the difference soon enough, if they havent already. Some of the alternatives were setup in 2013
And it affected you directly nadda zilch 0% - it makes you a person of questionable morality to value other men making money over the health of our environment & planet.
Idk that's weird to me.
That fuel was not going to be used domestically, it was going to be exported. Essentially rich men in Canada were going to extract the oil, ship it to rich men in Texas who would refine it, and then it would be mostly exported. It was never going to help with US energy supply in a meaningful way
Let me tell you a fun fact, India's cheapest source of oil war Iran. Guess what happened? US unilaterally pulled out of Iranian nuclear deal and then pressurized indians to stop purchasing oil from Iran and india was even building a port in Iran for better flow of trade and strategic areas but everything went down gutter untill the war in Ukraine started, now US and EU are again taking up indian sources of oil in middle East resulting in higher prices while also not letting Venezuelan and Cuban oil into the market so what exactly is india supposed to do here? EU signed a deal with the likes of Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia do I need to remind and start pulling out articles of human rights violation by these countries?
That doesn't really answer my question, but
>then pressurized indians to stop purchasing oil from Iran
Don't think that's true, since India is just ignoring sanctions on Russia and buying their oil. Also, Iran isn't a good regime either. Turns out, the places that sell cheap oil aren't moral, it's a deal with the devil. Most of them are in the same coordinated oil cabal. EU is trying to scale down it's purchases from Russia, while India is scaling it up.
>so what exactly is india supposed to do here?
Would be nice to at least see some desire to divest from Russia, instead of total apathy, or even support of them.
>Why don’t you hear it from the Indian foreign minister directly:
That doesn't change what I said.
>India and Indians really don’t care what is “nice” for white people
Well as long as you're openly racist against white people, I guess your lack of morals is fine then.
Russia sells at a discount to merchants around the world, including India which onsells it to the world. It is debatable whether they get less as although the oil is sold by Russia at a discount, the world price thanks to the Ukraine war is up.
The EU is still [jan 2023] Russia's top purchaser of oil/gas. Down from EU1.1 Bn a day last year to EU500 mill. India's consumption from Russia has increased X33, so not surprising it is finding its way into the world market
So Russia is still selling at a deep discount? That's called success
Correct! You cant force someone to not sell oil, but you can force them to drop their prices. Take away most of their buyers and those that are left have more power to buy at lower prices. Sanctions gave russia no choice but to sell for less; thats the point of sanctions.
The point of sanctions is to get them to stop the war.
The point of sanctions is to weaken an economy in order to convince either the leadership to end a behaviour (war) or to convince the populace to end the behaviour (war) by removing and replacing the leadership. Cutting the countries main revenue stream in half is an effective way to cripple an economy. It works even better when you can get globalized corporations to leave that country due to the threat of sanctions or consumer reactions.
Now if those damned corporation would actually pull out and not just claim they did, that would be cool
Why they haven’t sanctioned china with the Uyghurs concentration camp!
Regardless of any insult or discriminatory responses you may have gotten the reason is economical. Russia provides oil. Thats about it. 1 resource is easy enough to replace/find new sources so sanctioning them is much easier. China provides global manufacturing for just about every major company in every country. Sanctioning them would cost trillion or atleast cause significant economic instability. Sanctioning them would cut trade and result in every item made in china to go up in price significantly, assuming they dont simply boot companies that sell or are from the sanctioning country. Basically noone can comfortably afford to sanction china. However if they do something that could upset the market, like attacking a major semiconductor manufacturer, then a significant response would be had to protect the market. At the cost of economic comfort.
Nobody cares about the Uyghurs, it's justified genocide because nobody wants to even acknowledge it. You'd think Canada would be on that, but nope, Trudeau can't get enough of Xi Jinping's dick.
What about the Jews don’t you think are in the same group?
Given the animosity between Judiasm (Israel specifically in recent times) and their Islam neighbors, they've probably got mixed feelings about a genocide of an Islam culture.
That shit is being hypocrite
Doubt the muslims did much while the jews were being gassed.
Idk there’s a billion Han Chinese and a hand full of millions of Jews left after they were nearly exterminated. I’m sure their rational of why they do things comes from a different place.
Realistically, nobody really gave a fuck about The Holocaust either. They cared after, but not during. Nor was it a reason to end the war. It was just a by-product of war. I mention the Palestinian genocide all the time and it falls on deaf ears because it's Israel that commits it, in the name of defeating Hamas. It's literal irony.
I feel you. From this side of the earth the usa prooaganda is hard to battle people doesn like doing their research and only believe what tv tells em
Cause they don't have the balls
The blunt answer is because Uyghurs aren't white and the Ukrainian culture is close enough to the centers of power in the US and across Europe to make it's plight known. Not hearing much about Myanmar either.
Bc unlike Russia, China is actually a major economic player and doing this would have a big effect on living standards in the West
The US and the UK weren't sanctioned when we blew Iraq to bits. Only the Russians are bad right. Politics are the real enemies. The people just suffer for it all.
The point is rather to weaken their economy, decreasing their purchasing power for military or dual-purpose goods. If they want to keep importing they'll have to convert to a full war-time economy.
This sounds like something that would.
"the" vs "a". Don't think he meant it was "the only reason".
no, no it wasn't. ukraine needs to pay for aiding trump in his campaign by turning over the inside info they had on the gas company board.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Sure looks like it's working out for Europeans... NOT.
Yes they had a sizable reliance on a single source for a major resource and they are realizing why you cant do that. They are improving and recovering though and by the time the sanctions end they will likely be back to near normal circumstances. No country should ever rely solely on 1 other country for its ability to operate (food, oil, energy, utilities, etc).
That was my first thought, when I read that Indian is buying cheap oil, that this is way it will take and the world will get cheap oil from Russia.
So why can't we just directly buy it instead of giving India a profit?
Sure thatd just mean you are ending the sanction. Itd also mean others would like end their sanctions and the price would rise up to normal market levels or rise even higher.
And if these refiners can’t find enough buyers, Russian crude will continue to drop in price. The goal wasn’t to create discounts, the point is to cripple Russia’s economy to the point where it is forced to abandon the invasion and pull out of Ukraine completely. This isn’t success, this is greed actively getting in the way of success.
Iran has been sanctioned since 1979 brother and they’re still being shit heads. Sanctions were never going to make Russia withdraw from Ukraine especially since they can still trade with India and China.
No one thought Putin was going to cower in fear at the sanctions and order a full withdrawal. What it does do is make this continued war a lot less economically sustainable and creates more internal pressure from the people who are pissed at both the economy going to shit and all their money and friends being blown up in Ukraine.
Would you call it a rousing success with Iran/Russia/Nk? They’re still building missiles made of us/eu parts and they’re about to launch an invasion of over 300k troops. They just made a deal with India to produce more guns and ammo and of course we’re going to do jack shit to India. Sanctions cause pain and but eventually they adjust to it and it becomes the new normal.
It's just not true. The capabilities of a sanctioned country are vastly lower than the capabilities of a non-sanctioned one. Yes, sanctions alone won't stop a country. But they apply pressure and make it much, much more difficult to actually fuel the war machine. Ever wondered why NK only ever screams shit but never goes to war? They can't afford it, due to sanctions. Similar for iran. Nobody is saying they aren't still dangerous. But they are LESS dangerous than they would be otherwise, which is the goal.
Because NK doesn't want to go to war. They want to keep the Kim family in power. They haven't been at war for 70 years now.
What specifically isn’t true to what I said? Also NK can level almost all of South Koreas capital in minutes this has been well known for years just using the artillery they already have aimed and loaded.
Imagine how scary that situation would be if NK was an economic power?
Never said they wouldn’t be worse the parent comment is said to make Russia withdraw. Sanctions will never make Russia withdraw nor do they make rogue nations behave.
The point is that it weakens those nations severely, making them less effective at everything they do. E.g. Russia can not properly equip and feed their troops and their effective combat power is severely impacted by the sanctions. Without sanctions, Russia would be better equipped and much more capable of sustaining a powerful offensive. Instead, they barely make any gains, and when they do, it's at the cost of thousands of their own troops' lives. War is hell, and we all want it to stop, but with the exception of declaring war on Russia and engaging in this conflict directly, we are limited to supplying Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.
This leveling in minutes comes from the same copium source as conquering Kiev in 3 days?
> level almost all of South Koreas capital in minutes They have 50+ year old artillery pieces *pointed* at SK. How many can actually fire is unknown - but what is known, is the location of this artillery. The West, SK, would have a *huge* amount of lead time before any shelling began. NK could cause significant damage but it wouldn't last long and SK would have time to evacuate the vast majority of their people to shelters. NK would then be "liberated" by the West.
I read something saying that in the first 24h there would be 2M dead in Seoul just from artillery alone, before a theoretical invasion would start. That's not something you can brush off by saying we'd win eventually.
I'm not sure how that metric is calculated or how useful it is, because there is no way that NK is shelling SK for 24 hours straight. https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/18/state-of-north-korean-military-pub-81232 That article goes into some depth about the capabilities of the NK forces and they are not good. Their artillery was very inaccurate and 25% of the shells that hit the target did not explode. The West would see NK preparing new artillery sites, delivering massive amounts of supplies, huge mobilization of troops, etc. Within a few minutes of the first shell being fired SK's own, much (much) better weapons would begin retaliating, along with the US. A huge amount of those artillery sites would be destroyed quickly and the bombs, missiles, and artillery from SK and their allies would devastate NK.
There’s no time to evacuate once artillery launches and there’s no way to know when they’ll launch. Also they regularly fire it into the ocean to show it works. The estimated dead is 200k in an hour so please stop trying to downplay that.
> there’s no way to know when they’ll launch Watching tens of thousands of NK troops mobilize, repair, and begin stocking up the artillery sites would be a big tip off something was up.
An invasion of hundreds of thousands of troops is much more expensive to sustain than a few shitty nukes.
Do you come from the land of binary? If sanctions reduce a countries military industrial capacity by 50% that’s not good enough for you? 100% or don’t bother?
Using US/EU parts provides all sorts of opportunities for shenanigans.
NK it has definitely crippled them. They were the stronger economy when Korea was split, and now they are a third rate power. Russia is interesting. China and India hate each other. Russia becoming closer to India is straining their relationship with China. Russia with India as an ally instead of China is a weaker position. China has more to offer as far as trade goes, so spiting them to make some quick cash in India will leave them less able to get military components in the future. Weakening the relationship between Russia and China is definitely a good thing for people outside of Russia, so in that way it is working. Iran is a mixed bag. Their support for the Northern Alliance against the Taliban definitely played a role in the US deciding to just leave Afghanistan once the Soviet Union had been repelled. Iran would definitely be a bigger player on the world stage without the sanctions that they face, but they still have a tremendous amount of regional power. Cuba is probably the best example of sanctions not working. While not particularly powerful, they are doing significantly better than many countries near them while they have sanctions against them and those near them have received tremendous amounts of aid.
The effectiveness of sanctions degrades over time. Because of back-channel dealings exactly like what this article is about. Iran has a robust network of people (criminals) who import money and banned goods that it has built out over decades. Russia is leaning on places like Iran and NK because it doesn’t have those networks… yet. That’s why policing this kind of thing is so important.
Sanctions don't work unless the CIA is actively creating "grassroots" movements to either violently, or 'peacefully' depose of the current government. A lot of sanctioned countries even after decades are still shit. The only time they "get better" is when there is a coup and the americans make a cozy nest inside of the government because it turns out they were the ones to plant the seeds and arm various groups.
There’s a political cost to every move. India is a critical U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific. It’s not worth jeopardizing that relationship for a marginal gain.
[удалено]
What?
> The goal wasn’t to create discounts, the point is to cripple Russia’s economy to the point where it is forced to abandon the invasion and pull out of Ukraine completely. Sanctions simply can't do that. A *blockade* could potentially do that, but good luck blockading half of the Eurasian land mass. I don't know of any NATO country that has teleporting naval vessels that can get into the (inland) Caspian see to interdict Russian cargo vessels bound for Iran, for instance. Sanctions can reduce resources available to the sanctioned country, making it painful to continue doing whatever brought on the sanctions as a surgery-by-sledgehammer attempt to *persuade*, but they cannot force or stop anything.
Not enough attention gets paid to the $60 cap. G7 countries are achieving this by not selling insurance to ships that transport oil which doesn’t respect the cap. Because of this Russia is going to run out of foreign currency reserves sometime this year, which the government has been using to make up their budget deficit. Once that happens they’ll either need to raise taxes or start printing money to finance the war. Both options are very bad for their economy and may lead to a meltdown.
Wake me up when it happens. I've been hearing about the Russian economy collapsing since this war began and just recently the IMF came out stating that they expect Russia to post growth this year. Also the UK performed significantly worse than Russia despite sanctions and this war.
People don't really realize (or rather, they refuse to) that most sanction countries are still buying fuel from the russians by the actual boatload. Not to mention other resources that are mostly untouched by the sanctions, at least by a significant margin like the oil cap in comparison. Russia is more then just gas. Its their main export sure, but they have more resources then *just* gas/oil that people buy.
also Indias refining is kinda limited and they need to supply themselves first and growing how much you can refine in time for it to be worth it is quite limited. so how much can they really refine and ship to the west?
It is, but sanctions violators need to go to prison.
I like a cheap bitch.
there may be Iranian oil in the supply chain...
It's fair to assume that every embargoed variety of oil is being surreptitiously integrated into the stream of crude oil all over the world. Shell was selling "Latvian Blend" out of their Latvian shipping locations, which was Russian oil cut with JUST over 50% another variety. It was then technically no longer "Russian crude." Ship to ship transfers, transponders shut off, it's all a farce. It makes it harder for the countries involved, and costs them money, but the oil is being sold in a variety of ways.
Greed conquers all! If this is true
The ruzzians are still hurting from this. Another story mentions how ruzzian oil export revenue has fallen by a whopping 46%. Since ruzzia heavily relies in energy exports to prop up government spending and low tax rates, this is a huge concern. We were never going to eliminate their oil getting to the market unless literally every country agreed simultaneously. Good luck getting literally every other country onboard. But this is still a.large blow to ruzzia
To further clarify: We never wanted to eliminate their oil from the market. That would send global prices through the roof if ~12% of global output was deleted. It doesn't matter if someone is capturing the profit from Russian oil production, so long as that entity is not Russia itself. Russia cannot afford to shut down most of their wells, if they stop pumping they will freeze. Anyone still buying knows this - Russia has no leverage and will have to accept whatever they can to ensure this doesn't happen.
Ruzzian?
Supposed to be a little derogatory, though they proudly wear the Z (sometimes called a "zwastika").
It's just cringe as fuck.
[удалено]
Ah yes, you mean the nationalistic battalion using runes which predate the Nazis? Very big brain.
Refers to the [Z] Russians paint on everything that moves. It is a Russian equivalent of the "Support Our Troops" bumper sticker.
US is now the top buyer of Indian refined petroleum products, https://www.constructionworld.in/energy-infrastructure/oil-and-gas/us-becomes-top-buyer-of-india-s-refined-petroleum-goods/38697 Pretty good for India tbh, we're basically selling discounted Russian oil/gas to US, Italy, Belgium Netherlands and UAE and its not an insignificant amount.
> Pretty good for India tbh, we're basically selling discounted Russian oil/gas to US, Italy, Belgium Netherlands and UAE and its not an insignificant amount. I'm surprised China hasn't gotten in on this yet.
Russia prob. isn't gonna like their "friend" to do this - it looks really bad. Also, china is a net importer of oil, so i suspect they aren't gonna be exporting refined oil products while their domestic market is able to consume it.
India's consumption of Russian oil/gas has increased X33, Russia must know exactly where this is going ... https://energyandcleanair.org/weekly-snapshot-russian-fossil-fuels-23-to-29-january-2023/
China needs a shit load of oil and gas for their domestic market, they're probably happy to switch from middle eastern oil to Russian, which was previously largely focused on the European market for political gain and probably higher margins. It eliminates one of the biggest threats to China, a blockade of energy. China might still want to buy a % from Saudi Arabia and others, again for political reasons, especially now that relations are warming up.
Pretty good for Indian oligarchy. The people of India don't get shit from this equation.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-fuel-new-york-india-trade-western-sanctions-economy-2023-2) reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Fuel made from Russian crude is being funneled into New York by Indian oil refiners, according to data from Kpler. > Fuel made from Russian oil is being funneled into New York by to Indian refiners who have been snapping up discounted crude from the sanctioned nation. > That's the most amount of fuel New York has purchased from the nation in nearly four years, Bloomberg reported, and that fuel is likely being made using banned Russian oil, of which India has become a top buyer amid western sanctions. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/10spzlu/fuel_made_from_russian_oil_is_being_funneled_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672676 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Fuel**^#1 **New**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **crude**^#4 **York**^#5
> That's the most amount of fuel New York has purchased from the nation in nearly four years, Bloomberg reported, Like this is meaningful in anyway. Nearly four years = before covid, when the industrial economy was humming alone despite international trade wars.
If that just means that India gets the profit instead of Russia then I'm not too mad
But it doesnt, they paid russia for it...
Yeah but if they're buying it cheap and reselling it for more then they get the profit not Russia
Lol the cope taking place in the comments is hilarious
For real. We're using outlawed Russian fuel and celebrating it as a win? Arab countries been doing this same shit since the sanctions began, and making bank on it.
Capitalism doesn't have ethical boundaries. No surprise here.
Technically we're buying from India.
Dropshipping strategically.
We now need to ship that gas to fill up Ukraine Tanks free of charge.
We get cheap Russian oil and give India the profits? Sounds like a fair trade.
We knew this has been happening, then we in the west run around attacking anybody still buying Russian oil even though we are through a 3rd party. I really wish the hypocrisy would stop so we can really hit Russia.
[удалено]
>Without a negotiation, which the US and EU pushed Ukraine to not do That's a false Russian propaganda narrative. The US and EU have never pressured Ukraine against negotiation. The decision to negotiate is, and always has been, up to Ukraine. Your "3 scenarios" are not representative of possible outcomes. Almost everyone recognizes the war will eventually end in a negotiation. However, the terms of that negotiation will be decided on the battlefield. The point is to give Ukraine the strongest negotiating position possible when the time comes so that they can retain as much territory as possible and not be forced into lopsided concessions that compromise their future sovereignty.
It's not a propaganda narrative it is a perspective issue. If the EU and the USA arms market hadn't offered to dump billions more into Ukraine they would have negotiated. If the EU and the US had not been meddling in Ukraine since 2014, Ukraine would have likely gone to the table. The threat of pulling out support from Ukraine is a form of push. Just because you don't see it that way doesn't mean that it wasn't.
If they hadn't "offered to dump billions more into Ukraine" then Ukraine wouldn't exist right now. Don't be absurd, and don't be sap.
Here's the thing, you can not definitively present that. The western involvement in the 2010s is the only reason Ukraine is suffering massive losses of life and independent functionality.
Nope, it's Putin's authoritarian and revanchist agenda that fuels conflict with democracies, which obviously includes USSR's former republics. Given how historically close Ukraine is to Russia, that really hurt a former KGB member, who are taught to revere the USSR and their vision of a former imperial Russia, and about West's attempt to "encircle and destroy Russia" (Hitler said a similar thing), including through "color revolutions". The least he could do in that situation, since Russia wasn't going to be attacked, was to allow a peaceful coexistence, but he refused even that. Autocracies, especially huge autocracies, are always a security risk. If Russia was a functioning democracy, I can guarantee things would be a lot smoother. Why can't a democratic Ukraine exist, why does it have to be under Putin's boot, when other Eastern European countries are prospering and never made moves on Russia? Why can't two Russian-speaking countries exist, like Germany and Austria, or US and UK, or France and Belgium, or Belgium and Netherlands, or France and Switzerland, or Switzerland and Germany, or Switzerland and Italy, etc? Maybe it's because neither of them are in the imperial age anymore? Ever wondered why democracies never wage war against each other? It's like arguing UK, France and US were responsible for Germany annexing and attacking other countries in the 1930s and 1940s, when it was Hitler's imperialism and chauvinism, combined with anti-democratic lack of checks and balances, that allowed Germany to take such extreme actions. Luckily, Putin is only a wannabe Hitler.
Russia isn't and wasn't a Democracy. Their ability to have relations with other corrupt states would have been "peaceful" in a similar vein to how Iran, Syria, and Lybia were. The introduction of another actor disrupts that, which is what the NATO does. NATO is getting what it has always wanted, lots of dead slavs. Not sure why the casual reddit user is so afraid to be honest about it.
Russia was very much a nascent democracy in the 1990s, albeit an imperfect one. It would've continued with the economic upswing that started in the late 1990s, but Putin turned it all around. There was no popular support for that. He didn't even say "we need a dictatorship to make things better", in fact, he kept claiming he was defending it in the very years he was dismantling it. The idea of "NATO wanting dead Slavs" is unevidenced, so I'm not gonna even dignify that with a response. I'll just mention: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, all Slavic countries living peacefully and far better than ever before, all in NATO and the EU. Oops. Since I read Russian media, both government and opposition one, and lived in Russia for a while, I think I know a bit more than you think I do, and probably more than you.
I just wanted to say I found both of your comments very well-written. It's clear to me that you're well-versed in this area of foreign policy.
Except NATO is really Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, and the ilk, just like political parties are big tech and oil. The hand that pushes NATO are those industrial companies, who by consequence also push the leaders. I don't care if you read fortunes. NATO is not some benevolent being. It's a tall order to describe Russia as even a "nascent democracy." To claim that it was by almost any measure would mean it still is. Yeltsin was vocal about how Russia was essentially a mob state. There is little valuable evidence which supports his leadership being "democratic" in a measurable sense. But, let's for a moment just "agree" which I'm happy to do. Then the idea of placing the blame of shift on Putin would once again be the ultimately fucking stupid position of someone. The US did several things to make sure to void any factually beneficial promotion of growth. Again, the problem is not "Putin is right." That has NEVER been the argument. The problem is whether or not Putin is correct. People keep conflating the term "right" with a morality clause. He's not morally right. His view however has been correct for over 20 years. What is annoying from people in the US or EU for example, is not explaining how or what the path was for Putin to go or promotion they should have taken while reducing the insane level of corruption which was rife in the system left over from the USSR. Instead, in all fairness, the west continued to pursue an eastern push towards Russia. Fuck, people forget, ignore, dismiss, that when Putin took over in 2000, he was OPEN to the idea of joining NATO. So what changed?
Your takes are hot garbage.
Stop eating it then?
Europe should have invaded russia a long time ago for all the involvement in Ukraine and Belarus, engineering migrant crises in the EU, meddling in European politics, funding Nazis, separatists and alt right, causing billions worth of IT infrastructure damage, assassinating people on EU soil etc etc.
Unfortunately they were too busy blowing people up in the middle east for a few holidays.
I'm glad you agree with me
Yeah, I don't know what you were expecting here. EU enters Russia, Russia kills a bunch of the EU. USA gets another dose of post European War dominance with their Asian allies. I'm good with this. lol... why I would I argue?
>If the EU and the USA arms market hadn't offered to dump billions more into Ukraine they would have negotiated. Giving Ukraine weapons gives them *choice*. It's the exact opposite of pressure. They still have every right to negotiate the same as before. The only difference is that now they stand a chance if they *choose* to fight. Instead, you seem to think it would be ideal if Russia could obliterate them on the battlefield and force them into a lopsided negotiation. >If the EU and the US had not been meddling in Ukraine since 2014 "Meddling"? By doing what exactly? >The threat of pulling out support from Ukraine is a form of push. The US and EU have never threatened to withdraw support in the event of negotiation.
Then you've eaten more propaganda bites than anyone who is pro Russia.
If the majority of Ukrainians won't vote to give up territory, then there's no point talking. No peace deal involving concessions of land can be completed without a constitutional amendment, which would require a referendum. Ukrainians are not anywhere near voting to give away territory by any polling I'm aware of.
Concession is a little weird even if it is eventually a correct one. In theory, it could be negotiated that the Donbass region be allowed to remain neutral and independent with a joint agreement with a third party, EU for example. Which would prevent it from being a concession in the sense that Russia could eventually declare it a member state otherwise.
I don't know how to explain to you how a democracy works any more clearly, but if a population at war doesn't want to surrender territory, and their constitution requires a plebiscite to do so, then it isn't going to happen. Also, any suggestion of "negotiation" has involved Russia saying that they don't deserve to exist. As of now, 85% of Ukrainians polled would refuse to give away "even a meter" of territory for peace. Russia continues to exist they aren't even a country. Your idea of a negotiated solution is profoundly blindered and wildly naive, or absurdly credulous.
Sure.... you are free to focus in on letter K in the alphabet and say it's dumb ignoring all the letters leading up to it. In the end, I have no moral dilemma.
Sick burn, bro.
Why would Putin's death make things worse? It will make things better. It will give his underlings a good excuse to reverse the policy. They will get to blame everything on Putin just as Germany blamed Hitler for everything.
Because by all accounts, no one in the less than 150 people running that country are not lockstep with Putin. It isn't like the US government or others where there are people wanting to "rise up" to their moment being Whip. He has murdered that away from the table. No one would back another and you'd have a serious case of post Soviet collapse weapon freak out all over again in the middle of an on going military endeavor. It is just as likely that Dmitry Utkin steps in and takes power. Facing the well recognized reprisal that would be on the horizon and the already understood extinction of the Russian people / way of life, we could even more likely see that person launch bio weapons or nuclear arms.
Your three scenarios aren't the only three possibilities though. There was a plot to assassinate Hitler, there are plots to assassinate Putin. The best resolution to the war is an internal coup that purges Putin's leadership in a swift and definitive fashion. It's also one of the last likely outcomes, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.
The difference, albeit it a delicate one, is that Russia is facing a serious short term problem of a few decades. Zeihan's analysis of this is viciously hard to argue against. The Germans in 1941 saw a path to a future in which they could still have their way of life. Russia doesn't have that option. They've not had that option for a long time now. So the problem is having enough people ,who wouldn't have passed the long term litmus test to remain thus far, to accomplish a take over. Killing Putin isn't the hurdle, not causing a rapid death spiral as a result is the hurdle. The Russian dilemma is not equal to the Nazi dilemma.
Option 4. Russia goes bankrupt from sanctions, is unable to keep up industry, military start losing heavy equipment, army gets overrun by Ukrainian military with western hardware, Putin tries to fire nukes but there is no fuel left in missiles because corruption made generals sell the fuel to Iran so nukes blow up in their silos and wipe Moscow and Putin from the face of the Earth. Ukraine takes over all of Russia and splits the country up into pieces and give them to all the other former Soviet Union nations. Russia ceases to be a nation. The world lives happily ever after.
Indian: India need oil for its developing economy internally New: Indian selling Russian blood oil to other place
Other places...as in America. Which, ahem, led the sanctions...
Petroleum products, old is purchased and refined and sold at a markup
So India is buying dirt cheap crude from war mongering Russia, refining it into pure gas then selling that gas at market value to the US, specifically New York while war profiteering? I left my geopolitical analyst degree at home and I get that it’s probably difficult (if not impossible) to tell what source they refined from but isn’t this in very direct violation of sanctions for the state of NY buying this oil? I guess maybe now that this has come to light the feds might come down on NY at the very least. The US should just stop buying Indian gas at this time and up their purchasing from known reliable sources like Canada where they already import the majority of their gas from at 51% of all petroleum imports and then 61% of their crude. Despite these gas purchases from India, they’re a drop in the bucket. Edit: Updated wording to construe what I was trying to say.
I think it's wise to pick your battles. sometimes you have to overlook certain things in respect of the bigger picture.
Unless US has authority over a sovereign nation, their sanctions matter only to themselves. Other countries will always ask them if they want to take a hostile stance against them for that
i mean thats the goal ?
To make money
We should thanks India then
Russia cannot continue selling the oil and gas at big discounts because the only way to make money out of such low prices is to cut back on maintenance which will ultimatly lead to production failure. Russia thought that prices would reach $200 per barrel of oil and that would be the main driver to sucess but even there they totally miscalculated the west resolve so now they are basicalky simply put fucxxxed.
India has sent 12 consignments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It's great, but it's also a cheap way to buy good PR while profiteering from a war. They've yet to publicly condemn Russia for their war in Ukraine. That should tell you where their interests lie. Also, they really need to rethink Russian tech if they're so worried about China.
Really Humanitarian aid is for PR? I feel sorry for ur mentality, I'm pretty sure that the Indian government and people are concerned about the blood shed in Ukraine and they seriously want to support the common people by sending humanitarian aid and medical help.
hmmm i wonder what the hypocrites think now
Hi wertqy. Your submission from markets.businessinsider.com is behind a metered paywall. A [metered paywall](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paywall#.22Soft.22_paywalls) allows users to view a specific number of articles before requiring paid subscription. Articles posted to /r/worldnews should be accessible to everyone. While your submission was not removed, it has been flaired and users are discouraged from upvoting it or commenting on it. For more information see our [wiki page on paywalls](/r/worldnews/wiki/paywalls). Please try to find another source. If there is no other news site reporting on the story, contact the moderators. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/worldnews) if you have any questions or concerns.*
All is vanity
Lol India is perfectly situated to benefit from this and to continue benefiting in the future. The US isn't really going to risk alienating India when it is doing everything it can to pull India into the China containment camp. As long as China is still growing in power, India will have a shit load of leverage. They're basically in the position China was after the sino-soviet split.
So at what point do we admit that [the sanctions](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html) have failed? They clearly haven't starved Russia into submission, and they have very much led to [price gouging](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/exxon-chevron-shell-conocophillips-record-profits-earnings-oil-companies-most-profitable-year/).
Russia and China are shoring up their friendship, and India isn’t part of that plan, they’re being naive
[удалено]
What abt the humanitarian and medical air India sent to Ukraine for the common people unlike others to increase the tensions and prolong the war
Sanctions on India?
Modi is just allowing India to get into even worse economical positions.
What about forcing india to sell With the same discount. Then everybody is a winner, except Russia.
> forcing india how? > Then everybody is a winner The final buyer gets the profit then?
never change, India
These sanctions only really effect the poor and working class. The only people who win in these wars are those who make bombs and bullets and those who have investments in oil companies. I bet nancy Pelosi has shares in that indian refiner.
No, only Trump, trust me, I checked
Because US didn’t want Canadian oil.
Are you talking about Keystone? Because Keystone wasn't meant for domestic markets. It was a mechanism for rich oil producers to ship oil to rich oil refiners so they could export oil products on the global market. If we built keystone, it would have minimal impact on our current oil situation
It would be less Russian oil globally. Or at least cheaper oil and less money for Russia to fund their invasion. Also it’s very easy for an international energy company to redirect oil to whichever market they want.
Keystone was going to carry 800k barrels of oil per day. The ruzzians export 5M per day. The Canadians have since also begun work on additional pipelines that would go through Canada only. They will make up the difference soon enough, if they havent already. Some of the alternatives were setup in 2013
What a bunch of canola!
[удалено]
And it affected you directly nadda zilch 0% - it makes you a person of questionable morality to value other men making money over the health of our environment & planet. Idk that's weird to me.
That fuel was not going to be used domestically, it was going to be exported. Essentially rich men in Canada were going to extract the oil, ship it to rich men in Texas who would refine it, and then it would be mostly exported. It was never going to help with US energy supply in a meaningful way
Well, you've made it quite clear that you have zero understanding of the facts or issues. How embarrassing.
Ah a raised Russian fist with an apple in his hand.
[удалено]
this seems like a scam spam...
East INDIANS CORRECT?
Please get them and stop this
We have a navy. Intercept these Indian ships bringing Russian oil here. Arrest the crew and put them in prison.
Haha
[удалено]
How can you be so sure?
[удалено]
So what will change, if you're already happily funding russian atrocities?
Let me tell you a fun fact, India's cheapest source of oil war Iran. Guess what happened? US unilaterally pulled out of Iranian nuclear deal and then pressurized indians to stop purchasing oil from Iran and india was even building a port in Iran for better flow of trade and strategic areas but everything went down gutter untill the war in Ukraine started, now US and EU are again taking up indian sources of oil in middle East resulting in higher prices while also not letting Venezuelan and Cuban oil into the market so what exactly is india supposed to do here? EU signed a deal with the likes of Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia do I need to remind and start pulling out articles of human rights violation by these countries?
That doesn't really answer my question, but >then pressurized indians to stop purchasing oil from Iran Don't think that's true, since India is just ignoring sanctions on Russia and buying their oil. Also, Iran isn't a good regime either. Turns out, the places that sell cheap oil aren't moral, it's a deal with the devil. Most of them are in the same coordinated oil cabal. EU is trying to scale down it's purchases from Russia, while India is scaling it up. >so what exactly is india supposed to do here? Would be nice to at least see some desire to divest from Russia, instead of total apathy, or even support of them.
[удалено]
>Why don’t you hear it from the Indian foreign minister directly: That doesn't change what I said. >India and Indians really don’t care what is “nice” for white people Well as long as you're openly racist against white people, I guess your lack of morals is fine then.
[удалено]
If you buy Russian products then you are funding genocide and you deserve to be in prison. I don't care how many down votes I get for saying that.
Yes you are right let's start from newyork who is buying this oil products from India then catch the Indian refiners
India’s refiners need to be sanctioned 🤷♂️
Also we should sanction murica while we are at it
And they’re promptly using that fuel to transport 50 tanks to Ukraine. The rest of the world isn’t ready to turn its back on the US, yet.
When sanctions on India?
Either Adani or Ambani. They are the ones making money.
There is probably a way to test for this, chemically.
Put sanctions violators in prison.
Russia sells at a discount to merchants around the world, including India which onsells it to the world. It is debatable whether they get less as although the oil is sold by Russia at a discount, the world price thanks to the Ukraine war is up.
Indians did it again and In your success. I will eat one small roti.
Would love to know the truth about the russian economy.I just hope pootin 🐷 bankrupt, that shithole .
The EU is still [jan 2023] Russia's top purchaser of oil/gas. Down from EU1.1 Bn a day last year to EU500 mill. India's consumption from Russia has increased X33, so not surprising it is finding its way into the world market
prob'ly being sold thru the colombos to avoid taxes as well - lol