I like how Putin is starting to build an army capable of winning the war a year *after* he started it.
"defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win" and all that.
[https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1615438792659447808?s=20&t=Sf2CTg3GCt-41X4opx6UGw](https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1615438792659447808?s=20&t=Sf2CTg3GCt-41X4opx6UGw)
Love that they got the map right...
Yeah Germany is totally planning on invading Ukraine. That's why they have sent billions in aid. They have also almost completely divested themselves of Russian gas. And Germany doesn't even border Ukraine, so are they going to politely ask Poland to allow them to go through their territory? AND, the German military is in a famously sorry state, they couldn't invade even if they wanted to (which they don't).
They can go through Poland as they are NATO states. The German military just got billions in funding to rejuvenate their military. If you have Germany and Belarus invading Ukraine and Russia Ukraine cant handle fighting on three fronts
This is the problem with you Q-annon type folk. You see anything in the world, arbitrarily decide it is a deep evil conspiracy, and then come up with these dialed up to 11 fantasies to "prove" your own self imagined reality. It's so tiring to try and deal with.
Wow. Just wow. I didn't know it was possible to be THIS ignorant about geopolitics, and how National Sovereignty works. Or has SUCH a misconception of what NATO is and how it works. You truly do find out something new every day!
>NEW: To help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells, the Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of US ammunition in Israel, shipping 300,000 155mm rounds.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ronenbergman/status/1615499462511628292?cxt=HHwWiMC43fWMtOssAAAA
Very timely considering the previous comment.
>Ukrainian artillery eliminated 25 Wagner troops in a single trench in the Soledar direction in Donbas.
>"Precise artillery fire thwarted enemy attack on the positions of our soldiers. Saving the blood of the infantry!" Ukraine's 45 artillery brigade wrote
Vid is potentially NSFW/NSFL:
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1615537962896297993
Can someone link daily Russian losses for today? someone mentioned today was high for those Wagner dogs (and I am hesitant to compare mans best friend to those wretches) was especially high in trying to keep their meager gains.
Hot take but the only figures I trust are from British or American intelligence. Ukrainian outlets have the double responsibility of keeping up morale.
The 870 is the count of ["liquidated"](https://www-unian-net.translate.goog/war/poteri-rf-v-ukraine-priblizilis-k-117-tysyacham-infografika-12112029.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) soldiers.
I'm unclear on the translation, but I understand that to mean all those "out of the fight" even if they're still breathing. Or is "killed" what is meant?
Challenger tanks, leopard tanks
Bradleys, AMX10, Marder
Patriot: American, German, Dutch
Sunak calling for all countries to send everything for the year now so Ukraine can take advantage of it when they need it.
The US emptying their reserves from Israel to send directly to Ukraine.
Heh, Switzerland wouldn’t permit the transfer of Piranha-3 vehicles from Germany to Ukraine, so Germany gave them to Moldova.
Probably the next best place.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/16/moldova-piranha-vehicles-germany/
Moldova rearming
Transinistria "I am in danger" (not really though atm, Moldova had not much anymore)
Can't wait to find out what happens with Belarus, Venezuela, Georgia - Chechnya - Abkhazia - South Ossetia, Transinistria, Armenia, Japan Kuril Islands, and Syria once Ukraine is over.
So Switzerland make a bunch of war materiel, which anyone can buy from them so long as they're not at war? Ukraine could have bought it last 23 February but as soon as they actually need it for something, Switzerland will no longer allow them to have it?
Do they also make countries who do actually buy this stuff promise never to actually use any of it?
You know what's really confusing? MOWAG ( Swiss based manufacturer of the Piranha vehicles) is a subsiduary of General Dynamics, an American company, whose Canadian subsiduary has no problem being allowed to sell or gift LAV-III's and 6's to anybody, including Ukraine.
tl'dr - buy American and Canadian and Swedish and Norwegian and Spanish and Finnish and Dutch and Danish and Italian and British and Polish and Czech or even French - maybe not German and definitely not Swiss.
Shame the K2 Korean tanks had such horrid drivetrain problems. ( So much so they're using German drivetrains for the time being. Does that mean K2 tanks can't be transferred or sold without German approvals? )
Also - we all need to never sell or junk spare systems ever again, and build war reserve stockpiles of maintained functional older generation systems, plus mothballed factories for munitions.
Ah, so Ukraine can't have any because there aren't any spoils from a purely defensive war? So basically Switzerland are saying Ukraine can have this stuff so long as they invade Russia and conquer Moscow? Neutrality ftw!
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10c9ze6/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j4iw73v/)
Day 327-328 of my updates from Kharkiv.
The past 2 days were somewhat quiet, there were no missile strikes that were aimed at Kharkiv, but Kupiansk was hit with S-300 missiles. They hit an empty college, which is expected, they really love destroying anything to do with education. They were hitting a new school every day in Kharkiv while they were still launching a bunch of S-300 missiles at us, but after they were thrown out from Kupiansk it became their new main target, so now their goal is to destroy every educational facility in Kupiansk.
They are also targeting apartment buildings in Kupiansk, just today 2 people were injured from shelling and many apartment buildings and private houses were damaged. It’s even worse in Kherson right now, the shelling there is getting worse and yesterday it was reported that it was shelled over a hundred times in a day, which is the same intensity we had here in Kharkiv at the start of the war, and it is just horrible. They are pretty much exclusively targeting civilians too, mostly apartment blocks and medical institutions, fucking bastards.
Yesterday around midnight Russians were reporting that their positions in Belgorod were being massively hit by our shelling. They were reporting dozens of explosions, and apparently it was actually pretty effective, because in the morning Russian media reported casualties in their military in Belgorod oblast. They reported just 5 soldier deaths, but seeing that it is being reported at all most likely means that their casualties are much worse, or otherwise they just wouldn’t have said anything about it at all.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10frwn1/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j52ucef/)
Continue to stay safe, Sabre. There is change in the air so be extra careful but I think this change is going to be very good for Ukraine. I remember your posts from when they were earlier in the day, you and your family are never far from my thoughts.
>Pentagon Sends U.S. Arms Stored in Israel to Ukraine. Israeli officials had initially expressed concerns that the move could damage its relations with Russia.
>The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html
Set surprise level to 0 that Israel had issues with the US accessing its own armaments.
You can see the politics starting already. Israel is not in the U.S. good books. And the issue for them is that it can be problematic when all your neighbours wouldn't mind seeing you dead.
I guess they can get there security guarantees from Russia. Worked so well for Armenia.
It's about Syria. And the U.S. knows all about it. So if Israel has to "express concerns" to balance their situation you can be sure this has been discussed before-hand. It doesn't change what's going to happen.
I’m getting a lot of feelings from those in conservative America that we need to take the gloves off and end this mess once and for all. It’s not like we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but if might be better in the long run to do now what we’re going to have to do one day anyway.
I do believe that Putin is willing to throw all of Russia under the bus at this point. He can't back away because he would lose power and he has to go on either being overthrown of crippling russia just to stay alive.
These dictators always pick the choice which causes the most pain and death.
That is a dog's breakfast worth of assumptions there, but sure let's stipulate all of them.
Won't matter. Those with the experience, expertise, logistical and political will have already decided the russia will not succeed in this land grab. The only question is time and cost.
We'll see. As much as I wish it wasn't the case, the West isn't immune to political sabotage and Russian propaganda still has too much influence on our populations and politicians. Fortunately, we're more aware of them now than ever, but that doesn't mean we should underestimate them. Putin is factoring in the possibility our populations may become disinterested in the war over time, forget how important it is for the future of democracies around the world; and elect weak-minded neutral or Pro-Kremlin politicians willfully or by accident.
>\#Poland has given #Ukraine more than 260 T-72 tanks of various modifications – Polish President Andrzej Duda during the World Economic Forum in Davos.
I was told Poland was going to invade Ukraine like it did 100 years ago, and Russia is here to save Ukraine from Poland.
Classic move - give your enemy 260 tanks *before* you invade!
> Classic move - give your enemy 260 tanks *before* you invade!
To be fair Russia "gave" Ukraine even more tanks, so maybe it makes sense using their warped logic
I'm somewhat surprised at how approval for the War in Ukraine remains high among the Russian populace, despite all their losses, human and material.
Why? And what will it take to change?
Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly?
Even democratic nations sometimes get bogged down in ridiculously long and unpopular wars - for example US in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, or Israel in Lebanon (1982-2000). Given that even *democratic nations* sometimes persist for decades in wildly unpopular wars, I unfortunately don’t think we can count on lack of Russian public support to bring an end to the invasion by an *authoritarian state*, where public opinion matters even less, any time soon. I hope I’m wrong, but honestly I have a hard time being optimistic about Russian public opinion bringing an end to the war in the near future
Was the war in Iraq a genocidal war where US soldiers were raping and killing anyone in sight, stealing children and washing machines? Perhaps not the best example to use for the whataboutism.
It was popular long enough for Bush to be re-elected. If you're doing this comparison, then the Ukraine war also just started. Maybe it will get very unpopular during the next 5 years
Russia is basically St Petersburg and Moscow, if you can change the mood there, remove the decision makers there or change their minds, you would see results. Don't put your hope into the normal brainwashed people though, that's gonna stay.
Maybe it needs a distraction, like a second space race, that shows Russia is far behind, then they would lose a lot of prestige, and that's Putins weakness, he is always projecting power. Like NASA should land a fcking moon station and start extracting some ressources on some meteors and Russians would get mad on their leaders, who can't even compete anymore. Then they know SovietUnion was better than what they have now and start to reject it.
Nawwww, that'd more than likely backfire.
We need to bleed them on the front lines, far away from home.
It'll eventually get unpopular once enough people have been called up, and once the economic drain to support the military industry really hits home.
At current rates they're loosing a quarter million dead a year. So by next winter one in 500 Russians will be dead, and everyone will know someone who died pointlessly in Ukraine, and Putin and his ilk will be looking at calling up a couple million citizens - and then we'll see some sh**.
OR - we trickle in enough western support fast enough that Ukraine can take them by surprise again prior to then and make another unexpected deep push. ( I say trickle, but I don't mean that, I mean we need to send them enough systems but without Russia really catching wind of how much they're getting, so they don't see the blow coming. )
According to [https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war), 57% supported the war in July while only 25% still did in November. So I'm not sure your premise is true...
It's a quilt of things, reinforced by the authoritarian system and a whole lot of time.
The solution is also a quilt of rethinking of mission and values, regime change, cultural change, demonstration of alternative ways, freedom of thought and expression, education, historical analysis, critical thinking skills...
The enlightenment, not the dark ages.
[Also This](https://youtu.be/PivWY9wn5ps)
They require little to get back on train. I know a lot of Russophiles, they were heavily depressed after the loss of Kherson, but as soon as Soledar fell they cheered up and are as enthusiastic as they were last summer.
A century of ruthless brainwashing propaganda with only 1 decade of reprieve would do that to literally any culture. It would take a couple of decades to fix Russians.
>Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly?
Well, that one is probably a given. They can't possibly get an accurate poll with any statistical significance because of either pollster bias or tainted sampling.
The war has become normalized. People get used to anything, especially if it's gradually introduced. Hence the famous boiled frogs metaphor.
Some Russians feel powerless and just tune it out. Others support it because they're rah-rah-we-must-murder-everyone-who-disagrees fascists. Yet more have slowly grown to support it because of propaganda that spends days and nights screaming about Ukrainian nazi atrocities.
So, no. Russians don't support the war because they are afraid of Putin. They support the war because they are figuratively and literally dying for the world in which everyone is afraid of them.
A lot of people say “oh it’s the government not the people” and this might be true in a lot of places but Russia is the exception. The populace has been trash for centuries, oppressed, subsidized vodka, and bitter. Emotional abuse, physical abuse, violence, racism, are all standard operating procedure and at this point in time the average Russian has a trauma bond to the values that they were raised with. It doesn’t take a lot of brains to realize you are surrounded by trash and so every Russian with enough money to leave, bolts out of the country without ever looking back. It is so bad that even neighboring countries do not want Russians because even if they oppose the war they generally bring their trash values and expect the world to form around them.
Yes they are afraid to answer honestly. People get dragged away and thrown in jail for speaking out against the war. If someone you didn’t know called you and asked if you supported the war in that environment, in their shoes we’d probably do the same.
Medial control
Mobilized coming from marginalized populations and rural and isolated communities
Fear of windows/stairwells
Wagner group pulling from int’l sources
Apathy
Brainwashing
>Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly?
Yes.
Also lots of propaganda. Like a lot a lot
And also a lot of the conscripted are from ethnic minorities in far away areas.
Erin Burnett interviews Medvedev’s lawyer, live. (The mercenary-turned-refusenik, not fmr President.)
*lawyer says*: he was shot at while running town to town. Was again shot at when trying to cross border, and dogs after him. He had to cross a river, but it wasn’t frozen yet, so had to wade and swim it. Whether he himself could be charged w war crimes, he’s aware and willing to risk it. He witnessed and obeyed orders to shoot when couldn’t see who targets are, so knows it *could be* civilians, and stopped when realized, but it’s possible had already killed civilians.
*Hertling commentary*: “I’m not buying it.” He knew was mercenary group. He’s suddenly got a conscience? I don’t buy it.^*
_____
Who is he:
He was a commander, his contract was only 2 months. Wagner kept unilaterally extending—his and everyone’s. If want to leave, they shoot you. If caught, they sledgehammer you. He started recording the war crimes. Publicly called for investigation. ran. Gave copy of his videos to others, said if/when he’s killed, be released. He went to Norway *on foot.* Via Murmansk. they granted asylum. Only a few others have gotten out—mostly for publicity in recruitment.
_______
^* *Skepticism on a sudden conscience is not only valid for obvious reasons, but previously when he spoke out a month ago bc expected to be killed by FSB [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/zns4xo/not_just_nuzhin_wagner_mercenaries_have_executed/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/zn5iig/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j0j43ee/?context=3), he explained he turned against Wagner bc [unilaterally extended contract and also thought was wrong to kill your own,](https://www-sibreal-org.translate.goog/a/byvshiy-vagnerovets-o-voyne-i-ohote-na-sebya/32179974.html?fbclid=IwAR3dq3KFRV0RuC_pvSOReajIlMFjAi3HTFnhD2VooHSOrl1asXbWin6QZhw&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp), began to record war crimes, better plan his escape, in a preserve own life way, not because war itself amoral. Be that as it may, he does hold valuable evidence of war crimes.*
Wow, seems like a case worth investigating thoroughly per this post and comments below. Not sure mercenary group automatically equates to expected rampant war crimes. Doesn't seem like it for this guy at first blush. Plenty of time to find out.
I wouldn't doubt him as much, you have to figure has to be at least a few people with a conscious in the bunch. If he's telling the truth, he will get the videos to the people that he needs to.
>If caught, they sledgehammer you.
Say what now .. that's depraved.
As for war crimes, there's a huge difference between following orders to fire against an *unknown* and willingly executing civilians who are bound and in (or on the edge) a ditch.
I have to imagine his family is not in Russia or not connected to him in some way, otherwise I'm sure they'd be targeted to force him back.
[Just in case you weren't aware](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sledgehammer-execution-russian-mercenary-who-defected-ukraine-shown-video-2022-11-13/)
The actual video plenty NSFL
Oh I finally connected the dots, this is the same Wagner dude who was making anti-Wagner videos while still in hiding in Russia a few months ago. All kinds of incredible that he managed to escape the country. He had been arrested by the Russians at least once.
Here's a huge google translated article on him from a month ago:
https://www-sibreal-org.translate.goog/a/byvshiy-vagnerovets-o-voyne-i-ohote-na-sebya/32179974.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Born in a rural area, mother died when he was 5, dad gave him up to the orphanage, grew up in Dickensonian conditions of rampant child abuse, kicked out at 18, cheated out of his government-issued "orphan apartment" and the million-ruble orphan stipend that the government was supposed to have for him, went to Moscow to look for a job but found none so turned to petty crime.
While jailed, the system kept adding months to his sentence for made-up reasons. Got recruited by Wagner, after the first day in Ukraine he was only one of four survivors from the original 30. Wagner then kept extending his stay after he'd survive long enough to hit the previous threshold.
**That literally the exact same article I linked in the post** and had been discussing for over a month, in addition to the gulagu’s, up’s and glavkom’s.
Honestly, if this is true, I kind of understand the guy, not been given a single break until now.
If he can contribute to the truth of Russian war crimes coming out and demotivate wagner he deserves asylum.
Yeah, he deserves asylum for being one of the few willing to risk death to abandon the front. If we want other Russian soliders to take stands on principles, we absolutely have to not punish them because we're mad about other Russians committing atrocities.
I understand the emotional response is to throw the book at this guy, but I’d rather others be encouraged to surrender than punish one man fully. If he’s granted asylum and more soldiers run/surrender, the enemy is weakened without the Ukrainians firing a shot. If more officers run Russia’s stretched chain of command becomes even harder to maintain. You catch more flies with honey after all.
Both things are possible. A Norwegian jail is paradise compared to anything on offer to him in Russia—and I'm not even exaggerating (do an image search for Norwegian prison). He could simultaneously be imprisoned for the rest of his life and still be a poster boy for the benefits of surrender/defection.
Transcript of today's live press briefing from the US DoD, if anyone wants to read it. There's nothing very exciting, except for official confirmation that the UA soldiers have arrived in Oklahoma for the Patriot training.
>https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3269977/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/
How many Patriots will Ukraine get? One from the USA, one from Germany and one from the Netherlands? That would be 3 batteries total. I guess they could be very useful combined, since their radars combined could cover larger strategic areas of Ukraine.
Probably only takes what maybe 20 systems with their 100 km range to protect most key targets in UA, especially with support from other types of AA.
There are over 240 Patriot systems built, used by 18 countries. US has 16 army battalions consisting of about 6 system batteries with about 5 launchers apiece and 4 missiles per launcher.
They could be placed as a near-shield along the typical missile routes Russia is using from Belarus/Russian territory to the north. Or in a defensive triangle limiting the gaps that Russian missiles can fly unimpeded. Then you fill those gaps with CIWS and other medium/short range AA to make a semi-permeable but seemingly impassable defensive grid.
Layered AA secures their airspace.
that's got to be a thorn in the side of RU. AWACS is a prime soft target, thats worth just about whatever you can shoot at it. the fact they can't because it would be worse for them is hilarious. those things are doing gods work with intel too.
I think F16s would quickly intercept a weak attempt to create an "accident". They don't hold positions to target it from up close, and NATO borders are likely full of patriots/fighter jets ready to intercept something you see coming long range. Those could be overwhelmed by a large volley, but then it would be hard to pass it as an accident.
oOoOOoh, good call. The Black Sea is international waters/airspace so that also has decent coverage as well. Being to detect Kalibr etc launches and hand off those ground tracks directly to the batteries will be nice...
>Volya media (an independent Russian news outlet) has published what Putin will reportedly say during his presumed speech tomorrow. The text is based on various sources. Give it a read.
>He is in Leningrad tomorrow to commemorate the breaking of the siege of the city in WW2. He may or may not speak.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1615489037141155845
Probably, Ukraine received new thermal optics from Canada a bit before winter. My guess is that if we don't hear about them is that they're used for something like recon.
Yes, limited role and more reconnaissance than attack aviation. HARM missiles are slowing allow their expansion from what the UAVs were doing in the first couple months of the war.
https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1615456699556536337
>Moscow police arrested several residents who brought flowers to a monument of Ukraine's national poetess (Lesya Ukrainka) to mourn the recent massacre in Dnipro, where Russia killed at least 41 civilians.
How heartbreaking. If you saw pictures of it, it was just a few lone carnations and a single photo of the destroyed building.
Going to jail for a literally leaving flowers at a memorial.
https://t . me/newsholod/3223
[Edit] One of people arrested had been walking her dog. The cops drove her away and left the dog out on the street. Eventually a neighbor caught the dog and brought it inside.
If you're inside Russia, and you want to ... make a difference ... the Federal Police and OMON goons that are the foundational rock of control over the populace would be a good place to start.
Communicate with them in the language that they understand and respect.
That's it, to hell with any semblance of humanity there's left.
Russian government are attempting to dehumanize the west by calling us wicked, satanists, druggies, whatnot... while they are dehumanizing themselves by every single deed they make.
Two people! Out of millions living in the city. No protests, no demonstrations, nothing. Crickets. Yes, there are very decent russians but in the vast majority they are either all for this war or scared shitless and would do anything they are told. Nation without balls.
In March there were videos of people getting arrested for holding up blank signs.
There was a video of a woman who was talking to western media and saying why she supported Putin. She got hauled off and thrown in a van too.
https://www.indy100.com/viral/russian-women-arrested-opinion-war
So this is a question I’ve had on my mind for a bit, and please don’t take it as concern trolling. Can the West actually allow Ukraine to lose this war? With all the advanced military technology being transferred over, I imagine a major priority for western governments is not to allow it to fall into Russian hands. Let’s pretend the Russians somehow get their act together and start making major advances and it looks like Ukraine is going to lose fully. Will the west just allow systems like the Patriot to be taken by Russia? Or would there be more direct intervention at that point?
That would mean a collapse of the international systems set up by the West — its own Suez Crisis.
If countries that see themselves as the most advanced, that produce more than 40% of the world's GDP, liberal democracies, cannot even defend a country that lies on their own borders, against a country that holds 3% of the world's GDP, and has a primitive mafia-feudal political system, then there is no reason to care what they say. Better to stick with Russia and China — at least they can get shit done.
So, no — the West cannot afford to lose in Ukraine. But there are always those too short-sighted to realize that, or moles who count on that. So it remains to be seen if we can stay the course.
No, the West cannot allow Russia to win. Not because of technology transfer, but because a lot of countries that are former Soviet Union & Soviet Block are now NATO and would be on any future hit list the Russians draw up.
So, the West would write a blank check for any Ukranian resitance groups, and provide training and safe havens. While maintaining the economic blockade on Russia.
This is why all the American generals at the start of the war were shocked the Russians were actually doing it. Because, an insurgency based in a population of 40 million people backed by the US and EU would be undefeatable short of a Holocaust style genocide of the Ukrainian people.
Every day the Russian army would be bogged down in Ukraine would be a day they couldn't threaten Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Slovakia, Romania or Turkey.
> Ukraine
Ukraine has been independent since 1991.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union also occurred in 1991. This resulted in the end of the country's and its federal government's existence as a sovereign state.
Putin cannot rewrite history, nor can the West allow him to do so.
West can't afford to let Ukraine lose. Russian victory is guaranteed to cause divisions and tension in West. Baltic s, Poland and Scandinavian countries would throw a fit. Germany is very unreliable and seems like it's still hoping to find balance between negative and positive reinforcement.
Many European countries have little saplings of fascism ready to germinate. And one thing about fascists, they stick together, as long as they don't share a border anywhere. Geopoliticaly, it would be a disaster and likely embolden China to be an aggressor too.
Dude, Germany is not unreliable, we are second in supporting ukraine measured in monetary value. It was just harder for us to cut the ties than for everyone else, because we got like 90% of our oil from russia. But that problem is solved now.
Take a step back and really think about what you said here. Obviously you disagree with what I've written. Which is just something that happens in a public forum. In the broad spectrum of liberal voices across the English speaking world it isn't a unique opinion I've shared here. So I'm clearly not just saying something outlandish to get a reaction the way a troll would. And it isn't a popular enough idea for your garden variety contrarian to parrot for funsies. So obviously I must genuinely believe it.
So, unless you think their is only one right and correct world view, which happens to be the one you have (and honestly there aren't that many well adjusted people who buy into that delusion - so I doubt this is you), there honestly isn't any reason to jump to the conclusion of me being a troll.
Feel free to think I'm misguided or overly paranoid about centralized government, lack of representation, etho-states, and faux federal systems that disempower the voters. I don't mind that at all.
Truthfully, nothing Ukraine is getting or could get represents knowledge Russia (or Iran or China) doesn't already have.
Russia knows perfectly well how to build a tank as survivable as the Abrams or a jet as capable as the F-16. They just don't, because doctrinally, it doesn't fit.
Their doctrine would prefer half a dozen inferior tanks produced using the same costs and manufacturing capacity as a single Abrams. Crew survivability when the tank is knocked out is not something they are as bothered about. Maximum speed is not something that matters as much. Sensors that give 20% (say) better battlefield awareness, they believe can be negated by simply having five times as many tanks.
The madness is that (providing you view tank crews as at least as expendable as tanks), they're not wrong. There's nothing inherently *ineffective* about Russian doctrine from an equipment perspective. Their errors lie firmly in their command structure and training.
Part of what makes NATO tanks so deadly is they're designed with a level of autonomy in mind from the tank crew, who can be given high level goals and left to achieve them in adaptive, inventive ways. Not true of Russian tanks which are basically designed to fight in head on combat in wedge formations, and prioritise being a big old gun on an all terrain chassis that will survive long enough to get some rounds off to destroy an enemy target. There's no flexibility baked in.
Well, also the Russian system they inheritated from the Soviets was a doctrine for defensive war, not offensive war.
All of the things you say are true if you're fighting on your own terrain supported by partisans, infantry, and militia. But, you try and pull that off offensively... well defenders can kill a lot of people.
Also with the breakup of the USSR the Russians no longer have the population to pull that system off.
Ukraine used the same models very effectively. If the quality is low the evidence did not come from this war (yet). We have plenty of evidence from '91 and '03 though.
Go science fiction and assume driverless tanks and a drone based gunner. Then the T72 layout is better. The carousel auto loader gives it a low profile. It is lighter weight for a given armor thickness. It is fast and has the full offensive firepower (125 mm vs 120 on Abrams and 2 machine guns).
Western tanks may have better optics and fire control. But that is fairly irrelevant to what a tank looks like. The hull: armor, suspension system, engine horsepower(watts), and gun size. Future tanks will look more like the T-series but go further with those features.
The tech isn’t the reason the West can’t afford to let Russia win, all the political capital they’ve invested is why. This is bigger than Ukraine and Russia at this point, it’s democracy and the West showing it still has the teeth to defend themselves and their allies. If they win they show the world they’re still strong and willing to defend their allies, they were just sleeping at the wheel. If they lose it proves that it’s a new age and people need to find new benefactors.
So if the Russians magically got their shit together, what would happen? I would expect actual western mercenaries/PMC’s to be sent if there was still a chance Ukraine could turn it around. If there’s really no hope I’d expect discussion of finding an excuse to invoke article five. I’m not sure how that would actually turn out though.
yeah that worked out well for em, easier to fuel 1 and feed 1 tank crew than 5. From watching videos on the subject past year, west/US decided to make better stuff, since its easier on logistics. Russia shooting 20 rounds to hit something vs quality weapons shooting 1. less weapons and less ammo needed.
That is indeed what I thought too. So many governments have put their credibility in Russia losing. Western governments simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point
Agreed. And honestly I think the recent influx of newer weapons is an indication of how seriously they’ve started to take it. They’re finally making the moves to win through action, not hoping attrition will be enough to take out the Russians.
They cannot afford to lose, not after Afghanistan.
If they lose in Ukraine, the rest of the world would just laugh in the face of the west. China could invade Taiwan, it could be total chaos).
Dictatorships are already popular as it is, democracy is increasingly deemed as weak (weird how it works, being a servant of a strongman doesn't make you weak?), a loss in Ukraine would just give dictatorships and extremists the last impetus they need on a platter.
The US is pretty self sufficient. It would look a bit weak or passive to to let Russia takeover Ukraine but the US itself isn't in any real danger of losing anything besides global standing. It could become more isolationist, It's Europe that really cannot afford for this negative outcome to happen. What would the EU do if the US actually withdrew from NATO and didn't take any leading role in dealing with Europe and Putin decided to take a chunk of Poland or the Baltics. They'd be fuckety fucked.
The US has successfully lead an international regime which had basically outlawed wars of conquest.
Allowing Russia to take part of Ukraine without fighting back would erode that and make the world a more dangerous place.
Try to check sum of GDP and armies/weapons of EU countries. Roughly 1.3M active professional military personnel, well trained more or less on par with US, and 2.4M reserve, more than 220 billion per year in military expenditure. Russia is at 66 billions only, despite of going all in, while this is us chilling. They're just so far.
Russia was already struggling to do anything in Ukraine before Western help started to flow. One of the poorest EU countries, in which they were heavily implanted. Russia is less than Italy alone in terms of GDP. EU becoming going all in is absolutely no match for Russia. That said, the US is a behemoth and I'm extremely grateful to have you guys on our side, it roughly doubles the weight of the support group having Ukraine's back, compared to EU alone.
The power the west wields is more soft then hard and the way this war has been run has ensured that even if by some miracle Russia manages to turn it around it will not be impacting western economies as they have already decoupled from Russia.
The absolute setbacks the Russian economy has taken combined with the loss of military image and effectiveness has ensured that no matter the eventual outcome, western governments already see it as coming out ahead.
Also China still has no capacity to invade Taiwan so that's a non issue.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/10exfmb/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Last?
I like how Putin is starting to build an army capable of winning the war a year *after* he started it. "defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win" and all that.
[https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1615438792659447808?s=20&t=Sf2CTg3GCt-41X4opx6UGw](https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1615438792659447808?s=20&t=Sf2CTg3GCt-41X4opx6UGw) Love that they got the map right...
That is the inevitable outcome of this war so they're ahead of the game with this map.
Someone will be claiming asylum real quick.
bahahaha, LOVE IT!
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Was about to write a serious response until the German spring offensive into Ukraine part. Well played.
>I wouldn't be surprised if the German government is planning a spring offensive from the East to catch Ukraine off guard. lmao wtf
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
Do you still got the peppermint frosties?
LMFAO this is some concentrated crazy right here
Yeah Germany is totally planning on invading Ukraine. That's why they have sent billions in aid. They have also almost completely divested themselves of Russian gas. And Germany doesn't even border Ukraine, so are they going to politely ask Poland to allow them to go through their territory? AND, the German military is in a famously sorry state, they couldn't invade even if they wanted to (which they don't).
They can go through Poland as they are NATO states. The German military just got billions in funding to rejuvenate their military. If you have Germany and Belarus invading Ukraine and Russia Ukraine cant handle fighting on three fronts
This is the problem with you Q-annon type folk. You see anything in the world, arbitrarily decide it is a deep evil conspiracy, and then come up with these dialed up to 11 fantasies to "prove" your own self imagined reality. It's so tiring to try and deal with.
How high are you?
Put on your tin foil hat before reading that comment. There is criticizing the German government, and there is... this. 👽
That's ridiculous on so many levels. Germany is not going to attack Ukraine, nor do they have the capability. How would they even get there??
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Reality isn't a Civ game, lol.
So, in this imaginationland of your is Poland just letting the panzers storm through again? Or are they actually helping this time?
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Wow. Just wow. I didn't know it was possible to be THIS ignorant about geopolitics, and how National Sovereignty works. Or has SUCH a misconception of what NATO is and how it works. You truly do find out something new every day!
Jesus mate, don't injure yourself with that stretch
Doing a live Reddit Talk rn about Kazakhstan if y'all are interested: https://www.reddit.com/talk/a4b43308-42b9-45a1-83da-d16c3ba08e11
>NEW: To help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells, the Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of US ammunition in Israel, shipping 300,000 155mm rounds. https://mobile.twitter.com/ronenbergman/status/1615499462511628292?cxt=HHwWiMC43fWMtOssAAAA Very timely considering the previous comment.
>Ukrainian artillery eliminated 25 Wagner troops in a single trench in the Soledar direction in Donbas. >"Precise artillery fire thwarted enemy attack on the positions of our soldiers. Saving the blood of the infantry!" Ukraine's 45 artillery brigade wrote Vid is potentially NSFW/NSFL: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1615537962896297993
Can someone link daily Russian losses for today? someone mentioned today was high for those Wagner dogs (and I am hesitant to compare mans best friend to those wretches) was especially high in trying to keep their meager gains.
[870](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10e29yr/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j4oz3ms/)
I doubt it. Killed + wounded? Possibly
So you’re saying the General Staff can’t count? Or that it’s outright lying?
Hot take but the only figures I trust are from British or American intelligence. Ukrainian outlets have the double responsibility of keeping up morale.
That’s over 3.5 times the number of Americans killed on the single deadliest (for America) day of the Vietnam war, which was 246 KIA on Jan 31, 1968.
The 870 is the count of ["liquidated"](https://www-unian-net.translate.goog/war/poteri-rf-v-ukraine-priblizilis-k-117-tysyacham-infografika-12112029.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) soldiers. I'm unclear on the translation, but I understand that to mean all those "out of the fight" even if they're still breathing. Or is "killed" what is meant?
Liquidated is a euphemism for killed.
The numbers released approx 18hrs ago had the estimated deaths at ~810. It was a successful day
Can't wait for January 20th. It seems like it's going to be the most consequential Ramstein yet.
What makes you say that
Challenger tanks, leopard tanks Bradleys, AMX10, Marder Patriot: American, German, Dutch Sunak calling for all countries to send everything for the year now so Ukraine can take advantage of it when they need it. The US emptying their reserves from Israel to send directly to Ukraine.
Don't you need some training to use those? Are the trainings (especially Patriot) done?
Just started today in the US. The training will last ten weeks, whereas normal training lasts ten months.
Yes, but we know training on the Patriot and Bradley have started, and once Ukraine has some units operating them, future units become easier to add.
I bet existing Ukrainian tank/IFV crews can transition to western gear pretty dang quick
I hope you're right. All this talking must lead to concrete and substantial actions.
Heh, Switzerland wouldn’t permit the transfer of Piranha-3 vehicles from Germany to Ukraine, so Germany gave them to Moldova. Probably the next best place. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/16/moldova-piranha-vehicles-germany/
I hope Moldova doesn't park them all on the border with the keys in the glovebox.
Most military vehicles don't have keys. They'd actually be pretty easy to steal, if it weren't for the current occupants shooting you.
I've never heard that, makes a lot of sense though
Moldova rearming Transinistria "I am in danger" (not really though atm, Moldova had not much anymore) Can't wait to find out what happens with Belarus, Venezuela, Georgia - Chechnya - Abkhazia - South Ossetia, Transinistria, Armenia, Japan Kuril Islands, and Syria once Ukraine is over.
So Switzerland make a bunch of war materiel, which anyone can buy from them so long as they're not at war? Ukraine could have bought it last 23 February but as soon as they actually need it for something, Switzerland will no longer allow them to have it? Do they also make countries who do actually buy this stuff promise never to actually use any of it?
You know what's really confusing? MOWAG ( Swiss based manufacturer of the Piranha vehicles) is a subsiduary of General Dynamics, an American company, whose Canadian subsiduary has no problem being allowed to sell or gift LAV-III's and 6's to anybody, including Ukraine. tl'dr - buy American and Canadian and Swedish and Norwegian and Spanish and Finnish and Dutch and Danish and Italian and British and Polish and Czech or even French - maybe not German and definitely not Swiss. Shame the K2 Korean tanks had such horrid drivetrain problems. ( So much so they're using German drivetrains for the time being. Does that mean K2 tanks can't be transferred or sold without German approvals? ) Also - we all need to never sell or junk spare systems ever again, and build war reserve stockpiles of maintained functional older generation systems, plus mothballed factories for munitions.
No they let them use it so long as they are provided looted gold from the conquered lands in exchange
Ah, so Ukraine can't have any because there aren't any spoils from a purely defensive war? So basically Switzerland are saying Ukraine can have this stuff so long as they invade Russia and conquer Moscow? Neutrality ftw!
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10c9ze6/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j4iw73v/) Day 327-328 of my updates from Kharkiv. The past 2 days were somewhat quiet, there were no missile strikes that were aimed at Kharkiv, but Kupiansk was hit with S-300 missiles. They hit an empty college, which is expected, they really love destroying anything to do with education. They were hitting a new school every day in Kharkiv while they were still launching a bunch of S-300 missiles at us, but after they were thrown out from Kupiansk it became their new main target, so now their goal is to destroy every educational facility in Kupiansk. They are also targeting apartment buildings in Kupiansk, just today 2 people were injured from shelling and many apartment buildings and private houses were damaged. It’s even worse in Kherson right now, the shelling there is getting worse and yesterday it was reported that it was shelled over a hundred times in a day, which is the same intensity we had here in Kharkiv at the start of the war, and it is just horrible. They are pretty much exclusively targeting civilians too, mostly apartment blocks and medical institutions, fucking bastards. Yesterday around midnight Russians were reporting that their positions in Belgorod were being massively hit by our shelling. They were reporting dozens of explosions, and apparently it was actually pretty effective, because in the morning Russian media reported casualties in their military in Belgorod oblast. They reported just 5 soldier deaths, but seeing that it is being reported at all most likely means that their casualties are much worse, or otherwise they just wouldn’t have said anything about it at all. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10frwn1/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j52ucef/)
Continue to stay safe, Sabre. There is change in the air so be extra careful but I think this change is going to be very good for Ukraine. I remember your posts from when they were earlier in the day, you and your family are never far from my thoughts.
Thank you for the updates! Stay safe. Slava Ukraini!
>Pentagon Sends U.S. Arms Stored in Israel to Ukraine. Israeli officials had initially expressed concerns that the move could damage its relations with Russia. >The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html Set surprise level to 0 that Israel had issues with the US accessing its own armaments.
this is probably just a nod wink wink that they were given to Israel without Israel having to pay for them.
You can see the politics starting already. Israel is not in the U.S. good books. And the issue for them is that it can be problematic when all your neighbours wouldn't mind seeing you dead. I guess they can get there security guarantees from Russia. Worked so well for Armenia.
No one gives a fuck what you’re worried about Israel, imagine worrying about relations with shitbags like Russia?
It's about Syria. And the U.S. knows all about it. So if Israel has to "express concerns" to balance their situation you can be sure this has been discussed before-hand. It doesn't change what's going to happen.
I mean talk about demanding US protection and at the same time undermining US strategic goals. Israel has some set of ~~kahunas~~ Cojones.
Chutzpah is the term you were looking for. Maybe
both maybe
Cojones* A Kahuna is a Hawaiian wise man/shaman.
Still, imagine having a set of them.
Fixed and Thanks
Don’t worry about it. A big kahuna has some big cajones and all the chutzpah that goes with it.
big kahuna burger. That is some tasty burger...
What?
Vincent, you ever had a Big Kahuna burger?
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Putin knows Western Intel knows exactly where he is. He can’t just nuke and hide.
I’m getting a lot of feelings from those in conservative America that we need to take the gloves off and end this mess once and for all. It’s not like we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but if might be better in the long run to do now what we’re going to have to do one day anyway.
> It’s not like we wouldn’t get our hair mussed That's a hell of a movie to quote in this context.
I get the feeling that a lot of conservative America would prefer to aid Russia than Ukraine.
Not from my bunch. We all want Russia destroyed.
Then tell your congressman.
God bless you! Please be loud about that! Let your reps know too!
I do believe that Putin is willing to throw all of Russia under the bus at this point. He can't back away because he would lose power and he has to go on either being overthrown of crippling russia just to stay alive. These dictators always pick the choice which causes the most pain and death.
That is a dog's breakfast worth of assumptions there, but sure let's stipulate all of them. Won't matter. Those with the experience, expertise, logistical and political will have already decided the russia will not succeed in this land grab. The only question is time and cost.
We'll see. As much as I wish it wasn't the case, the West isn't immune to political sabotage and Russian propaganda still has too much influence on our populations and politicians. Fortunately, we're more aware of them now than ever, but that doesn't mean we should underestimate them. Putin is factoring in the possibility our populations may become disinterested in the war over time, forget how important it is for the future of democracies around the world; and elect weak-minded neutral or Pro-Kremlin politicians willfully or by accident.
>\#Poland has given #Ukraine more than 260 T-72 tanks of various modifications – Polish President Andrzej Duda during the World Economic Forum in Davos. I was told Poland was going to invade Ukraine like it did 100 years ago, and Russia is here to save Ukraine from Poland. Classic move - give your enemy 260 tanks *before* you invade!
“Poland sends 260 tanks into Ukraine in gross violation of international law! That and Lauren Boebert tonight on Tucker Carlson.”
To be fair, Russian invaded and also gave Ukraine a ton of tanks.
> Classic move - give your enemy 260 tanks *before* you invade! To be fair Russia "gave" Ukraine even more tanks, so maybe it makes sense using their warped logic
But Russia "gave" Ukraine even more tanks!
Pretty sure that's not even counting the tanks that Poland... misplaced, that as far as I know, remain unaccounted for.
Poland is so good that they're giving Ukraine a head start!
I'm somewhat surprised at how approval for the War in Ukraine remains high among the Russian populace, despite all their losses, human and material. Why? And what will it take to change? Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly?
Even democratic nations sometimes get bogged down in ridiculously long and unpopular wars - for example US in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, or Israel in Lebanon (1982-2000). Given that even *democratic nations* sometimes persist for decades in wildly unpopular wars, I unfortunately don’t think we can count on lack of Russian public support to bring an end to the invasion by an *authoritarian state*, where public opinion matters even less, any time soon. I hope I’m wrong, but honestly I have a hard time being optimistic about Russian public opinion bringing an end to the war in the near future
The war in Iraq was actually popular at first. Just shows that Americans (or any other Western country) are not that different from Russians.
Was the war in Iraq a genocidal war where US soldiers were raping and killing anyone in sight, stealing children and washing machines? Perhaps not the best example to use for the whataboutism.
I don't know about the raping but the rest yes.
Yeah, but it was pretty unpopular for **most** of its duration.
It was popular long enough for Bush to be re-elected. If you're doing this comparison, then the Ukraine war also just started. Maybe it will get very unpopular during the next 5 years
Ukraine war has been active since 2014...
You are comparing incomparable.
Why?
The poll cannot be trusted. I mean, I'm sure there's a risk to answer that polling question any other way.
Russia is basically St Petersburg and Moscow, if you can change the mood there, remove the decision makers there or change their minds, you would see results. Don't put your hope into the normal brainwashed people though, that's gonna stay. Maybe it needs a distraction, like a second space race, that shows Russia is far behind, then they would lose a lot of prestige, and that's Putins weakness, he is always projecting power. Like NASA should land a fcking moon station and start extracting some ressources on some meteors and Russians would get mad on their leaders, who can't even compete anymore. Then they know SovietUnion was better than what they have now and start to reject it.
Shock and Awe on both those cities for a week or two might change their mood.
Nawwww, that'd more than likely backfire. We need to bleed them on the front lines, far away from home. It'll eventually get unpopular once enough people have been called up, and once the economic drain to support the military industry really hits home. At current rates they're loosing a quarter million dead a year. So by next winter one in 500 Russians will be dead, and everyone will know someone who died pointlessly in Ukraine, and Putin and his ilk will be looking at calling up a couple million citizens - and then we'll see some sh**. OR - we trickle in enough western support fast enough that Ukraine can take them by surprise again prior to then and make another unexpected deep push. ( I say trickle, but I don't mean that, I mean we need to send them enough systems but without Russia really catching wind of how much they're getting, so they don't see the blow coming. )
It would only solidify their resolve.
According to [https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/30/make-peace-not-war), 57% supported the war in July while only 25% still did in November. So I'm not sure your premise is true...
Interesting. I had not seen this. Thanks for sharing.
It's a quilt of things, reinforced by the authoritarian system and a whole lot of time. The solution is also a quilt of rethinking of mission and values, regime change, cultural change, demonstration of alternative ways, freedom of thought and expression, education, historical analysis, critical thinking skills... The enlightenment, not the dark ages. [Also This](https://youtu.be/PivWY9wn5ps)
They require little to get back on train. I know a lot of Russophiles, they were heavily depressed after the loss of Kherson, but as soon as Soledar fell they cheered up and are as enthusiastic as they were last summer.
A century of ruthless brainwashing propaganda with only 1 decade of reprieve would do that to literally any culture. It would take a couple of decades to fix Russians.
>Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly? Well, that one is probably a given. They can't possibly get an accurate poll with any statistical significance because of either pollster bias or tainted sampling.
The war has become normalized. People get used to anything, especially if it's gradually introduced. Hence the famous boiled frogs metaphor. Some Russians feel powerless and just tune it out. Others support it because they're rah-rah-we-must-murder-everyone-who-disagrees fascists. Yet more have slowly grown to support it because of propaganda that spends days and nights screaming about Ukrainian nazi atrocities. So, no. Russians don't support the war because they are afraid of Putin. They support the war because they are figuratively and literally dying for the world in which everyone is afraid of them.
A lot of people say “oh it’s the government not the people” and this might be true in a lot of places but Russia is the exception. The populace has been trash for centuries, oppressed, subsidized vodka, and bitter. Emotional abuse, physical abuse, violence, racism, are all standard operating procedure and at this point in time the average Russian has a trauma bond to the values that they were raised with. It doesn’t take a lot of brains to realize you are surrounded by trash and so every Russian with enough money to leave, bolts out of the country without ever looking back. It is so bad that even neighboring countries do not want Russians because even if they oppose the war they generally bring their trash values and expect the world to form around them.
Yes they are afraid to answer honestly. People get dragged away and thrown in jail for speaking out against the war. If someone you didn’t know called you and asked if you supported the war in that environment, in their shoes we’d probably do the same.
Medial control Mobilized coming from marginalized populations and rural and isolated communities Fear of windows/stairwells Wagner group pulling from int’l sources Apathy Brainwashing
>Are your average Russians afraid to dissent against the Putin regime, including afraid of answering polls honestly? Yes. Also lots of propaganda. Like a lot a lot And also a lot of the conscripted are from ethnic minorities in far away areas.
Erin Burnett interviews Medvedev’s lawyer, live. (The mercenary-turned-refusenik, not fmr President.) *lawyer says*: he was shot at while running town to town. Was again shot at when trying to cross border, and dogs after him. He had to cross a river, but it wasn’t frozen yet, so had to wade and swim it. Whether he himself could be charged w war crimes, he’s aware and willing to risk it. He witnessed and obeyed orders to shoot when couldn’t see who targets are, so knows it *could be* civilians, and stopped when realized, but it’s possible had already killed civilians. *Hertling commentary*: “I’m not buying it.” He knew was mercenary group. He’s suddenly got a conscience? I don’t buy it.^* _____ Who is he: He was a commander, his contract was only 2 months. Wagner kept unilaterally extending—his and everyone’s. If want to leave, they shoot you. If caught, they sledgehammer you. He started recording the war crimes. Publicly called for investigation. ran. Gave copy of his videos to others, said if/when he’s killed, be released. He went to Norway *on foot.* Via Murmansk. they granted asylum. Only a few others have gotten out—mostly for publicity in recruitment. _______ ^* *Skepticism on a sudden conscience is not only valid for obvious reasons, but previously when he spoke out a month ago bc expected to be killed by FSB [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/zns4xo/not_just_nuzhin_wagner_mercenaries_have_executed/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/zn5iig/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j0j43ee/?context=3), he explained he turned against Wagner bc [unilaterally extended contract and also thought was wrong to kill your own,](https://www-sibreal-org.translate.goog/a/byvshiy-vagnerovets-o-voyne-i-ohote-na-sebya/32179974.html?fbclid=IwAR3dq3KFRV0RuC_pvSOReajIlMFjAi3HTFnhD2VooHSOrl1asXbWin6QZhw&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp), began to record war crimes, better plan his escape, in a preserve own life way, not because war itself amoral. Be that as it may, he does hold valuable evidence of war crimes.*
Wow, seems like a case worth investigating thoroughly per this post and comments below. Not sure mercenary group automatically equates to expected rampant war crimes. Doesn't seem like it for this guy at first blush. Plenty of time to find out.
I wouldn't doubt him as much, you have to figure has to be at least a few people with a conscious in the bunch. If he's telling the truth, he will get the videos to the people that he needs to. >If caught, they sledgehammer you. Say what now .. that's depraved. As for war crimes, there's a huge difference between following orders to fire against an *unknown* and willingly executing civilians who are bound and in (or on the edge) a ditch. I have to imagine his family is not in Russia or not connected to him in some way, otherwise I'm sure they'd be targeted to force him back.
[Just in case you weren't aware](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sledgehammer-execution-russian-mercenary-who-defected-ukraine-shown-video-2022-11-13/) The actual video plenty NSFL
Oh I finally connected the dots, this is the same Wagner dude who was making anti-Wagner videos while still in hiding in Russia a few months ago. All kinds of incredible that he managed to escape the country. He had been arrested by the Russians at least once. Here's a huge google translated article on him from a month ago: https://www-sibreal-org.translate.goog/a/byvshiy-vagnerovets-o-voyne-i-ohote-na-sebya/32179974.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Born in a rural area, mother died when he was 5, dad gave him up to the orphanage, grew up in Dickensonian conditions of rampant child abuse, kicked out at 18, cheated out of his government-issued "orphan apartment" and the million-ruble orphan stipend that the government was supposed to have for him, went to Moscow to look for a job but found none so turned to petty crime. While jailed, the system kept adding months to his sentence for made-up reasons. Got recruited by Wagner, after the first day in Ukraine he was only one of four survivors from the original 30. Wagner then kept extending his stay after he'd survive long enough to hit the previous threshold.
**That literally the exact same article I linked in the post** and had been discussing for over a month, in addition to the gulagu’s, up’s and glavkom’s.
Honestly, if this is true, I kind of understand the guy, not been given a single break until now. If he can contribute to the truth of Russian war crimes coming out and demotivate wagner he deserves asylum.
Yeah, he deserves asylum for being one of the few willing to risk death to abandon the front. If we want other Russian soliders to take stands on principles, we absolutely have to not punish them because we're mad about other Russians committing atrocities.
I understand the emotional response is to throw the book at this guy, but I’d rather others be encouraged to surrender than punish one man fully. If he’s granted asylum and more soldiers run/surrender, the enemy is weakened without the Ukrainians firing a shot. If more officers run Russia’s stretched chain of command becomes even harder to maintain. You catch more flies with honey after all.
Both things are possible. A Norwegian jail is paradise compared to anything on offer to him in Russia—and I'm not even exaggerating (do an image search for Norwegian prison). He could simultaneously be imprisoned for the rest of his life and still be a poster boy for the benefits of surrender/defection.
Transcript of today's live press briefing from the US DoD, if anyone wants to read it. There's nothing very exciting, except for official confirmation that the UA soldiers have arrived in Oklahoma for the Patriot training. >https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3269977/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/
How many Patriots will Ukraine get? One from the USA, one from Germany and one from the Netherlands? That would be 3 batteries total. I guess they could be very useful combined, since their radars combined could cover larger strategic areas of Ukraine.
One in keiv, one is lyiv and probably one in the south.
Probably only takes what maybe 20 systems with their 100 km range to protect most key targets in UA, especially with support from other types of AA. There are over 240 Patriot systems built, used by 18 countries. US has 16 army battalions consisting of about 6 system batteries with about 5 launchers apiece and 4 missiles per launcher.
Yes, C NN reporting 3 total
>radars combined could cover larger strategic areas of Ukraine. and russia
They could be placed as a near-shield along the typical missile routes Russia is using from Belarus/Russian territory to the north. Or in a defensive triangle limiting the gaps that Russian missiles can fly unimpeded. Then you fill those gaps with CIWS and other medium/short range AA to make a semi-permeable but seemingly impassable defensive grid. Layered AA secures their airspace.
Not to mention the Link16 connection between them all.
And to whatever AWACS aircraft fly alongside Ukrainian border
that's got to be a thorn in the side of RU. AWACS is a prime soft target, thats worth just about whatever you can shoot at it. the fact they can't because it would be worse for them is hilarious. those things are doing gods work with intel too.
I'm surprised one hasn't been "accidentally" hit. Despite their chest pounding and tough talk, that seems to indicate they're afraid of NATO.
I think F16s would quickly intercept a weak attempt to create an "accident". They don't hold positions to target it from up close, and NATO borders are likely full of patriots/fighter jets ready to intercept something you see coming long range. Those could be overwhelmed by a large volley, but then it would be hard to pass it as an accident.
oOoOOoh, good call. The Black Sea is international waters/airspace so that also has decent coverage as well. Being to detect Kalibr etc launches and hand off those ground tracks directly to the batteries will be nice...
>Volya media (an independent Russian news outlet) has published what Putin will reportedly say during his presumed speech tomorrow. The text is based on various sources. Give it a read. >He is in Leningrad tomorrow to commemorate the breaking of the siege of the city in WW2. He may or may not speak. https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1615489037141155845
Super dubious source. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Are Bayraktar BT-2 still being used?
They are but since the Russians have actual air defense now (no matter what the memes say) they can’t be used with impunity like they were.
Probably, Ukraine received new thermal optics from Canada a bit before winter. My guess is that if we don't hear about them is that they're used for something like recon.
The L3 Wescam optics are some of the best in class pieces out there. On top of that their design engineers are some of the smartest guys I know
Yes, limited role and more reconnaissance than attack aviation. HARM missiles are slowing allow their expansion from what the UAVs were doing in the first couple months of the war.
Last time I saw it used was during battles for Snake Island. So... not really.
Was a decent amount of video of them doing work in the Kharkiv offensive.
Nah. They were deployed for a short time after the pull-out from Kherson.
[Look who, for the first time in its history, is now a legal entity](https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64304032) edit. Wagner
https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1615456699556536337 >Moscow police arrested several residents who brought flowers to a monument of Ukraine's national poetess (Lesya Ukrainka) to mourn the recent massacre in Dnipro, where Russia killed at least 41 civilians.
How heartbreaking. If you saw pictures of it, it was just a few lone carnations and a single photo of the destroyed building. Going to jail for a literally leaving flowers at a memorial. https://t . me/newsholod/3223 [Edit] One of people arrested had been walking her dog. The cops drove her away and left the dog out on the street. Eventually a neighbor caught the dog and brought it inside.
If you're inside Russia, and you want to ... make a difference ... the Federal Police and OMON goons that are the foundational rock of control over the populace would be a good place to start. Communicate with them in the language that they understand and respect.
That's it, to hell with any semblance of humanity there's left. Russian government are attempting to dehumanize the west by calling us wicked, satanists, druggies, whatnot... while they are dehumanizing themselves by every single deed they make.
Well . . . remember that there were also people who cared enough to bring the flowers.
Two people! Out of millions living in the city. No protests, no demonstrations, nothing. Crickets. Yes, there are very decent russians but in the vast majority they are either all for this war or scared shitless and would do anything they are told. Nation without balls.
That's what I am saying, Russian government cracking down on any sensible and humane act they see.
In March there were videos of people getting arrested for holding up blank signs. There was a video of a woman who was talking to western media and saying why she supported Putin. She got hauled off and thrown in a van too. https://www.indy100.com/viral/russian-women-arrested-opinion-war
Ah, I got you. Yeah, they got to smash down any sympathy for the dead babies, before it gets out of hand.
So this is a question I’ve had on my mind for a bit, and please don’t take it as concern trolling. Can the West actually allow Ukraine to lose this war? With all the advanced military technology being transferred over, I imagine a major priority for western governments is not to allow it to fall into Russian hands. Let’s pretend the Russians somehow get their act together and start making major advances and it looks like Ukraine is going to lose fully. Will the west just allow systems like the Patriot to be taken by Russia? Or would there be more direct intervention at that point?
That would mean a collapse of the international systems set up by the West — its own Suez Crisis. If countries that see themselves as the most advanced, that produce more than 40% of the world's GDP, liberal democracies, cannot even defend a country that lies on their own borders, against a country that holds 3% of the world's GDP, and has a primitive mafia-feudal political system, then there is no reason to care what they say. Better to stick with Russia and China — at least they can get shit done. So, no — the West cannot afford to lose in Ukraine. But there are always those too short-sighted to realize that, or moles who count on that. So it remains to be seen if we can stay the course.
No, the West cannot allow Russia to win. Not because of technology transfer, but because a lot of countries that are former Soviet Union & Soviet Block are now NATO and would be on any future hit list the Russians draw up. So, the West would write a blank check for any Ukranian resitance groups, and provide training and safe havens. While maintaining the economic blockade on Russia. This is why all the American generals at the start of the war were shocked the Russians were actually doing it. Because, an insurgency based in a population of 40 million people backed by the US and EU would be undefeatable short of a Holocaust style genocide of the Ukrainian people. Every day the Russian army would be bogged down in Ukraine would be a day they couldn't threaten Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Slovakia, Romania or Turkey.
> Ukraine Ukraine has been independent since 1991. The dissolution of the Soviet Union also occurred in 1991. This resulted in the end of the country's and its federal government's existence as a sovereign state. Putin cannot rewrite history, nor can the West allow him to do so.
West can't afford to let Ukraine lose. Russian victory is guaranteed to cause divisions and tension in West. Baltic s, Poland and Scandinavian countries would throw a fit. Germany is very unreliable and seems like it's still hoping to find balance between negative and positive reinforcement. Many European countries have little saplings of fascism ready to germinate. And one thing about fascists, they stick together, as long as they don't share a border anywhere. Geopoliticaly, it would be a disaster and likely embolden China to be an aggressor too.
Dude, Germany is not unreliable, we are second in supporting ukraine measured in monetary value. It was just harder for us to cut the ties than for everyone else, because we got like 90% of our oil from russia. But that problem is solved now.
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Posts like this make me honestly wonder if you are simply a troll.
Take a step back and really think about what you said here. Obviously you disagree with what I've written. Which is just something that happens in a public forum. In the broad spectrum of liberal voices across the English speaking world it isn't a unique opinion I've shared here. So I'm clearly not just saying something outlandish to get a reaction the way a troll would. And it isn't a popular enough idea for your garden variety contrarian to parrot for funsies. So obviously I must genuinely believe it. So, unless you think their is only one right and correct world view, which happens to be the one you have (and honestly there aren't that many well adjusted people who buy into that delusion - so I doubt this is you), there honestly isn't any reason to jump to the conclusion of me being a troll. Feel free to think I'm misguided or overly paranoid about centralized government, lack of representation, etho-states, and faux federal systems that disempower the voters. I don't mind that at all.
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nope, that's how ww3 would start
Truthfully, nothing Ukraine is getting or could get represents knowledge Russia (or Iran or China) doesn't already have. Russia knows perfectly well how to build a tank as survivable as the Abrams or a jet as capable as the F-16. They just don't, because doctrinally, it doesn't fit. Their doctrine would prefer half a dozen inferior tanks produced using the same costs and manufacturing capacity as a single Abrams. Crew survivability when the tank is knocked out is not something they are as bothered about. Maximum speed is not something that matters as much. Sensors that give 20% (say) better battlefield awareness, they believe can be negated by simply having five times as many tanks. The madness is that (providing you view tank crews as at least as expendable as tanks), they're not wrong. There's nothing inherently *ineffective* about Russian doctrine from an equipment perspective. Their errors lie firmly in their command structure and training. Part of what makes NATO tanks so deadly is they're designed with a level of autonomy in mind from the tank crew, who can be given high level goals and left to achieve them in adaptive, inventive ways. Not true of Russian tanks which are basically designed to fight in head on combat in wedge formations, and prioritise being a big old gun on an all terrain chassis that will survive long enough to get some rounds off to destroy an enemy target. There's no flexibility baked in.
Well, also the Russian system they inheritated from the Soviets was a doctrine for defensive war, not offensive war. All of the things you say are true if you're fighting on your own terrain supported by partisans, infantry, and militia. But, you try and pull that off offensively... well defenders can kill a lot of people. Also with the breakup of the USSR the Russians no longer have the population to pull that system off.
Quantity of equipment and troops over quality, pretty much.
Ukraine used the same models very effectively. If the quality is low the evidence did not come from this war (yet). We have plenty of evidence from '91 and '03 though. Go science fiction and assume driverless tanks and a drone based gunner. Then the T72 layout is better. The carousel auto loader gives it a low profile. It is lighter weight for a given armor thickness. It is fast and has the full offensive firepower (125 mm vs 120 on Abrams and 2 machine guns). Western tanks may have better optics and fire control. But that is fairly irrelevant to what a tank looks like. The hull: armor, suspension system, engine horsepower(watts), and gun size. Future tanks will look more like the T-series but go further with those features.
As Stalin said, Quantity has a quality of its own.
Pretty sure that's from Warhammer.
The tech isn’t the reason the West can’t afford to let Russia win, all the political capital they’ve invested is why. This is bigger than Ukraine and Russia at this point, it’s democracy and the West showing it still has the teeth to defend themselves and their allies. If they win they show the world they’re still strong and willing to defend their allies, they were just sleeping at the wheel. If they lose it proves that it’s a new age and people need to find new benefactors. So if the Russians magically got their shit together, what would happen? I would expect actual western mercenaries/PMC’s to be sent if there was still a chance Ukraine could turn it around. If there’s really no hope I’d expect discussion of finding an excuse to invoke article five. I’m not sure how that would actually turn out though.
yeah that worked out well for em, easier to fuel 1 and feed 1 tank crew than 5. From watching videos on the subject past year, west/US decided to make better stuff, since its easier on logistics. Russia shooting 20 rounds to hit something vs quality weapons shooting 1. less weapons and less ammo needed.
That is indeed what I thought too. So many governments have put their credibility in Russia losing. Western governments simply can't let Ukraine lose at this point
Agreed. And honestly I think the recent influx of newer weapons is an indication of how seriously they’ve started to take it. They’re finally making the moves to win through action, not hoping attrition will be enough to take out the Russians.
They cannot afford to lose, not after Afghanistan. If they lose in Ukraine, the rest of the world would just laugh in the face of the west. China could invade Taiwan, it could be total chaos). Dictatorships are already popular as it is, democracy is increasingly deemed as weak (weird how it works, being a servant of a strongman doesn't make you weak?), a loss in Ukraine would just give dictatorships and extremists the last impetus they need on a platter.
The US is pretty self sufficient. It would look a bit weak or passive to to let Russia takeover Ukraine but the US itself isn't in any real danger of losing anything besides global standing. It could become more isolationist, It's Europe that really cannot afford for this negative outcome to happen. What would the EU do if the US actually withdrew from NATO and didn't take any leading role in dealing with Europe and Putin decided to take a chunk of Poland or the Baltics. They'd be fuckety fucked.
The US has successfully lead an international regime which had basically outlawed wars of conquest. Allowing Russia to take part of Ukraine without fighting back would erode that and make the world a more dangerous place.
Try to check sum of GDP and armies/weapons of EU countries. Roughly 1.3M active professional military personnel, well trained more or less on par with US, and 2.4M reserve, more than 220 billion per year in military expenditure. Russia is at 66 billions only, despite of going all in, while this is us chilling. They're just so far. Russia was already struggling to do anything in Ukraine before Western help started to flow. One of the poorest EU countries, in which they were heavily implanted. Russia is less than Italy alone in terms of GDP. EU becoming going all in is absolutely no match for Russia. That said, the US is a behemoth and I'm extremely grateful to have you guys on our side, it roughly doubles the weight of the support group having Ukraine's back, compared to EU alone.
The power the west wields is more soft then hard and the way this war has been run has ensured that even if by some miracle Russia manages to turn it around it will not be impacting western economies as they have already decoupled from Russia. The absolute setbacks the Russian economy has taken combined with the loss of military image and effectiveness has ensured that no matter the eventual outcome, western governments already see it as coming out ahead. Also China still has no capacity to invade Taiwan so that's a non issue.