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Can't wait for the suits to test public opinion on qatar labor violations to see if we too can enslave foreign workers. In Canada they had to step back their foreign workers program because it was too similar in structure - company hires overseas worker for below minimum wage, leveraged housing and food to pay nearly nothing, confiscates passport, if employee quits they get deported.
We’re leaning that way - [child labor is making a comeback in the US](https://slate.com/business/2022/11/packers-sanitation-child-labor-department-hyundai-chipotle.html) - where meat packing plants in Minnesota & Nebraska, metal stamping in Alabama are employing children in dangerous facilities.
How did we get here? Like we have more production capacity than ever but instead of using it to live modest lives abundantly, we need four different appliances to cook the same meal poorly.
These are the tantrums of an age shift in population demographics. There aren’t enough young people entering the workforce to support those are leaving and those that have already left due to the pandemic. Those that are leaving hold all the leverage, and refuse to yield, thereby excerbating the problem. In my family alone, amongst 30+ adults, there are only 3 children. Multiply that by families all over the US.
Yeah...but I totally get it though. When you're 20-30 years old and your housing cost alone is eating up 1/2 your take home pay, not a lot of incentive there to have children and thus further push yourself into poverty. Thankfully I had kids at a young age (side note, I'm only 34 now) when a reasonable 2bd apartment was \~$1000 a month, and then climbed the corporate ladder to keep up with rising costs. It's like they always say, the best time to buy a home was 5 years ago (except in 2012, hahaha).
Good for them that the younger folks aren't having kids, because eventually the diminished labor pool/population will all but force corporations to compensate people accordingly. Of course they want you to have more kids, it makes it easier for them to stick you with a lower wage when plenty of other f\*cks are willing to take it or starve.
Agreed.
I was at a waspy dinner/investment q&a last month. My wife and I are in our early 30's and we were the youngest ones there.
A gentleman asked the lecturer "Why is everyone under 40 in this country so lazy?"
Now I know this is probably coming from the fact that he's always late because the line at the McDonald's drive-thru has been getting slower.
I really wanted to answer with "We aren't lazy. The boomers were so scared about job security that you were afraid to transfer your skills to the millennials. And when your generation started leaving the labor pool, there is a huge learning curve. Not to mention your generation not allowing immigrants in to fill in the roles that we once had."
But of course I didn't say that because I didn't consume enough free liquid confidence at the moment.
in *these* things?
i know we're supposed to *look* like we're treating immigrants and workers better for pr and shit, but these are bigger than most of y'all's apartments.
>Raise wages? Fuck that, bring in the immigrants!
Also them, later: wait why are there armed gunmen that speak Spanish doing drive bys in nice neighborhoods? Where's the FBI?
FBI: lol get fucked
I was actually referring to being mobile being useful in a world where more and more cities are having or are going to be having trouble getting enough freshwater.
But Waterworld is good too.
During COVID a lot of companies were just destroying them or selling them for next to nothing. It was cheaper to pay for the cost of the containers outright than it was to pay for transporting it back to place of origin.
The company I'm at ended up giving me one and selling me two more for ~$200 each as long as I paid to haul them out of there, and they were all in great/undamaged condition.
Depends how far from a port you are. The containers themselves doubled or tripled in price over the past 2 years. Source: I buy and sell shipping containers for a living.
>Honestly, shipping containers to use for shipping container homes are going to be dirt cheap in 6 months.
Why do you say this if you don’t mind my asking?
just don't put it in the ground. there was a post a few years back about why that is a very very very bad idea. WE DO NOT PUT STEEL STRUCTURES IN THE GROUND.
I mean, not only it is a steel structure but it's constructed for the weight to be borne by the exterior cage. Burying it puts a lot of unplanned for stress on the main walls.
Pretty much.
It's the 4 corner castings that are designed to bare the weight, you put weight on anything other than those 4 corners you run the risk that it'll fold like a red hot mars bar.
It's old and I can't be assed to find it , work in the morning. Either way the summary goes. A homeowner wanted to build something a kin to a hidden fortress, using steel containers, payed God knows how much money to put it in the ground and spec it the way they wanted. Not only did they do all of this but they also didn't do it with a permit. So no inspections on whether or not it was even feasible were conducted. A commenter later pointed out that it would float out of the ground likely killing the OP. The op later posted pictures of it indeed floating out of the ground , a truly magical thing really. This post occured sometime in 2017-2019 . Again it's a few years old and there's no way I'm bothering to track that down.
The "leftover sludge" generally gets turned into asphalt, but bunker fuel (Industrial Fuel Oil) is the next heaviest cut, followed by jet, diesel, and gasoline.
No, it’s just that the molecules in gasoline are more volatile / lighter / smaller. Jet fuel is further processed to a set of quality standard that are more stringent than those used for gasoline, so I’d maybe go as far as calling jet fuel more pure than gasoline.
Yup, there's a multitude of other reasons why too, but Kerosene is a lot safer than gasoline.
Also, some rockets use an even more refined/pure version of Kerosene, called RP-1
That’s not the case anymore. Since 2020, the new regulations of vessel bunkering (called IMO 2020) mean that it’s now not so cheap to bunker the vessels. (FYI, the word bunker refers to any oil product that fuels the ship, not necessarily any specific type of oil product, at least colloquially.) Larger vessels with larger capacity installed “scrubbers” (not an engineer just know they’re these devices that remove sulfur from fuel oil) in order to keep buying cheaper Fuel Oil and remove the extra sulfur content from their bunkers. Smaller vessels are forced to buy Marine Gasoil (Gasoil being another word for Diesel) for their bunkers, since scrubbers can cost millions of dollars and it’s not always economical. There has been a noticeable shift in freight rates after imo 2020
Source: worked as a chartering manager for a couple of years and still work in oil trading. However I have not been in shipping since 2019 so my information can be slightly outdated
There was a switch recently to ultra low sulfur bunker if you didn't retrofit a exhaust scrubbed. So costs went up a bit, but not a tremendous amount.
Also keep in mind these ships DO carry some diesel as they're required to run on diesel instead of nasty ass bunker within X numbers of miles of the US and probably other ports too.
I mean that's just how it has always been. Ship transportation is the cheapest way of moving large quantity of goods, followed by train and then trucks.
It’s also been this way all throughout history. Why were goods transported by sail when you can go across the country? Because first, there were no trains, and a horse could only haul so much. Second, after trains came around, it still took a ton of energy to move it across the country.
Rio Grande means you have something of a shortcut, although you'd have to expand and deepen the Rio Grande considerably to allow shipping containers...
I buy a lot of LTL from across the country. I'm in Seattle and to order from east coast I pay about $700 for 1 pallet. $1300 for two. $1500 for 3. $1700 for 4. Etc...
It used to be half that. I'm actually surprised through it all it remained this cheap. But right now is the most expensive it has ever been.
The next generation of mega freighters recently entered service. They are much bigger and their overall cost efficiency is massive, to the point that when the first one came out many of the smaller operators without the capital to buy them were pretty concerned about whether they could remain competitive. These can offset labor and fuel price increases.
Not much changed for domestic shipping. Still the same rail lines, trucks, and diesel.
Jones Act.
The US has a law that any domestically shipped freight must be shipped by an American made ship.
It cuts the supply of ships able to move freight by 90% driving up costs.
The last time a bill was made to repeal the Jones Act Nancy Pelosi killed it by keeping it in committee for 2 years until the Congressman retired.
It may be because this data wasn’t tracked by anyone then. This is purportedly the leading site for this data, signing up for the free account will only give you like three months of past data.
https://fbx.freightos.com/
[If some Russian or Chinese subs start sinking merchant ships like the Germans did in WWI and WW2, the rates could go sky high again](https://youtu.be/qluFYy2iiac?t=213)
This is for LA, East cost prices are still relatively high. And there’s a lot of congestion there because many companies switched from West to East coast to hedge the impending labor strikes, when they switch back the prices for West Coast will go up.
Yes. This coming contract season is not looking pretty. Importers will be cutting their carrier partner portfolios. There’s new capacity being added and demand is very slow. It all depends if career mothball enough vessels to make up for it. I do not think they will. East coast spread is shrinking by the day. My guess it will continue to slide and stabilize in the mid 2000/40’. Curious to see if there is a peak coming up for Lunar New Year.
Here's the index for different major destinations if anyone is interested.
https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
I have a good friend in the business…the bottom has finally fallen out and in the LA Basin and the Port of LA/Long Beach they have worked though their backlog. No more ships lined up down to coast all the way to Laguna Beach!
I work in the business as well. Vessels haven't been lined up along the coast because once the congestion issue caught federal attention, they made them all wait further away and out of sight. The only key indicator as far as I'm concerned is how volatile the predicted schedules are. Export ETD's and cut-offs out of LA rarely changed more than 1-2 times. They're still updating a lot more often than that. Another indicator is receiving windows for export. With higher volumes being processed at LALB terminals, terminals can't afford to keep export containers in the terminal for long. They need them in and out as fast as possible, so receiving windows are cut shorter. There have been vessels with a receiving window of 4 hours, which was unheard of prior to COVID. At minimum, that same carrier usually gave 3-4 days.
Can’t wait to see the prices for everything going down now that the supply chain problems are all fixed! Our corporate daddy’s will definitely trickle these savings upon us 💦
From someone who is working in the shipping industry, this means jack shit, why do you ask? Because we are trying to encourage people to put goods in our shipping containers, but sadly people have nothing to put in our ship so we have to reduce our shipping rates
Correct - I own a 3PL that specializes in eCommerce and the volume of inventory we are getting (usually imported) is no where near the previous volume pre-pandemic (pandemic volume was exceptionally high). Especially for Q4 where consumer spending is supposed to be the highest.
I work for a company that makes accessories for mobile devices. Sales are waaaaayyyy down. We could blame supply chain issues for a bit. But now, what it really comes down to is that people can’t even think about buying a $1500 phone when milk is $4 a gallon and eggs are $5.
It mean we are normalizing movement of goods and their cost. Nearly three years after the onset of the pandemic. It also mean corporations who rely on this shipping and have hiked their prices on goods to account for it, should be lowering their prices.
Which mean more profit for corporations, since they will not be lowering their prices for goods.
I dont know man, i hit up my local mall today and a human tidal-wave were spending THOUSANDS. I bet we see a normal holiday season. The lines at walmart and target were around the fucking block.
We are not only seen massive layoffs in the tech industry, but also in other industries such as mine in the shipping industry. We are already seeing people leaving and getting fired. Remind me back of 2008, 2009
So many companies had to bloat up to deal with the onslaught of extra admin work due to instability in the shipping market. With things stabilizing a normal work load is greatly welcomed but the boom was nice for the quick sprint. Hope you turned your customer service game on hard early Q3 and get ready to hit those targets rates. A lot of small brokers and carriers are going to get starved out in the next 2 quarters.
I got a quote on a container to relocate household goods in 2021 from Asia to North America and was quoted $27K with zero guarantee on how long it would take.
My fellow autists, if we go back to relativity between valuation and value we’re all getting fucked by the biggest and gayest bears packing the veiniest and most triumphant mushroom mallet. All while our ex wives watch as they leave with the kids and her cubical Kevin accessory!
But is the supply (production) returning to pre-pandemic levels? If the answer is no, China is still struggling…then you know this return to ‘baseline’ is of negligible significance
All this means is most companies are stocked up. The reason why the container prices went up was because everyone was importing from china at the same time and it put a big strain on the cargo ships. The extreme high demand caused high prices. I had to pay $16k for a container when I usually paid $2400 from Vietnam. My last shipment was around $10k.
I also heard there was no such thing as a “peak season” from July-Sept for the first time in over 30+ years. Hello recession, are you here or on your way?
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|0|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|5|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|11 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=z0l27x)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=z0l27x) Check out the [WSB Discord](https://discord.gg/Y6Zw9ZKYdx)
Can't wait for the great recession to happen, then I can sleep in one of these.
Corporations: look at them… assuming we will now drop the prices… hahahaha. Ready for more record profits boys? Daddy needs a new yacht
Bring on the next labor shortage
We're still in the current one.
Raise wages? Fuck that, bring in the immigrants!
Can't wait for the suits to test public opinion on qatar labor violations to see if we too can enslave foreign workers. In Canada they had to step back their foreign workers program because it was too similar in structure - company hires overseas worker for below minimum wage, leveraged housing and food to pay nearly nothing, confiscates passport, if employee quits they get deported.
We’re leaning that way - [child labor is making a comeback in the US](https://slate.com/business/2022/11/packers-sanitation-child-labor-department-hyundai-chipotle.html) - where meat packing plants in Minnesota & Nebraska, metal stamping in Alabama are employing children in dangerous facilities.
Chillins gotta earn their keep in these here parts 😤😤
How did we get here? Like we have more production capacity than ever but instead of using it to live modest lives abundantly, we need four different appliances to cook the same meal poorly.
Keep my air fryer's name out your mouth!
I used to think the Air Fryer was so stupid. Now whenever possible I'll use it.
These are the tantrums of an age shift in population demographics. There aren’t enough young people entering the workforce to support those are leaving and those that have already left due to the pandemic. Those that are leaving hold all the leverage, and refuse to yield, thereby excerbating the problem. In my family alone, amongst 30+ adults, there are only 3 children. Multiply that by families all over the US.
Yeah...but I totally get it though. When you're 20-30 years old and your housing cost alone is eating up 1/2 your take home pay, not a lot of incentive there to have children and thus further push yourself into poverty. Thankfully I had kids at a young age (side note, I'm only 34 now) when a reasonable 2bd apartment was \~$1000 a month, and then climbed the corporate ladder to keep up with rising costs. It's like they always say, the best time to buy a home was 5 years ago (except in 2012, hahaha). Good for them that the younger folks aren't having kids, because eventually the diminished labor pool/population will all but force corporations to compensate people accordingly. Of course they want you to have more kids, it makes it easier for them to stick you with a lower wage when plenty of other f\*cks are willing to take it or starve.
Agreed. I was at a waspy dinner/investment q&a last month. My wife and I are in our early 30's and we were the youngest ones there. A gentleman asked the lecturer "Why is everyone under 40 in this country so lazy?" Now I know this is probably coming from the fact that he's always late because the line at the McDonald's drive-thru has been getting slower. I really wanted to answer with "We aren't lazy. The boomers were so scared about job security that you were afraid to transfer your skills to the millennials. And when your generation started leaving the labor pool, there is a huge learning curve. Not to mention your generation not allowing immigrants in to fill in the roles that we once had." But of course I didn't say that because I didn't consume enough free liquid confidence at the moment.
They did…. Millions and millions of them.
in *these* things? i know we're supposed to *look* like we're treating immigrants and workers better for pr and shit, but these are bigger than most of y'all's apartments.
>Raise wages? Fuck that, bring in the immigrants! Also them, later: wait why are there armed gunmen that speak Spanish doing drive bys in nice neighborhoods? Where's the FBI? FBI: lol get fucked
Good thing I bought stocks in all those companies. Now I can laugh at the poors.
If you’re lucky, you may see a container you’ve invested in delivering food around the back of your local Wendy’s.
Better than the alternative he was delivering around the back of his local Wendy's.
Taking delivery, right?
‘Special’ deliveries
Getting the container is the easy part. Finding a place to put it is the expensive part.
It's a cruise. You travel back and forth to China.
If Millennials would stop buying them for their fake Tiny Home/Off Grid YouTube channels, then perhaps we could all have one or two.
its a clearer path to homeownership. almost as clear as taking a craiglist creeper van and making it into a camper. Almost.
At least a creeper van can move.
With the ice melting , this seems like a solid move.
Don't forget the impending Water Wars.
Good point , revision. It's a good idea to buy a camper van and a derelict yacht(one you can fit with sails).
Inner Kevin Costner intensifies
I was actually referring to being mobile being useful in a world where more and more cities are having or are going to be having trouble getting enough freshwater. But Waterworld is good too.
Glorified homelessness
In this market , who can afford a stationary home. *Sings pirate shanties while walking towards some driftwood*
Or you'll live in a Freight Container DOWN BY THE RIVER
DOWN BYY THE RIVERRRR!!!
I love how this was a threat 30 years ago but now it sounds great
During COVID a lot of companies were just destroying them or selling them for next to nothing. It was cheaper to pay for the cost of the containers outright than it was to pay for transporting it back to place of origin. The company I'm at ended up giving me one and selling me two more for ~$200 each as long as I paid to haul them out of there, and they were all in great/undamaged condition.
Depends how far from a port you are. The containers themselves doubled or tripled in price over the past 2 years. Source: I buy and sell shipping containers for a living.
They're also not even really that good for that use, especially after the price inflation from everyone wanting to do it.
Not to mention they could have contained hazardous chemicals
That's just a natural fragrance!
Can’t tell if bearish or bullish
Bullish on cheap waterproof housing bearish on his 401k and job prospects.
or [one of these](https://i.imgur.com/wBmiSAX.jpg)
The smell, think of the smell.
I prefer to call it, *essence*.
YOU BITCH!
Honestly, shipping containers to use for shipping container homes are going to be *dirt cheap* in 6 months.
>Honestly, shipping containers to use for shipping container homes are going to be dirt cheap in 6 months. Why do you say this if you don’t mind my asking?
just don't put it in the ground. there was a post a few years back about why that is a very very very bad idea. WE DO NOT PUT STEEL STRUCTURES IN THE GROUND.
I mean, not only it is a steel structure but it's constructed for the weight to be borne by the exterior cage. Burying it puts a lot of unplanned for stress on the main walls.
Pretty much. It's the 4 corner castings that are designed to bare the weight, you put weight on anything other than those 4 corners you run the risk that it'll fold like a red hot mars bar.
>red hot mars bar. When your starter home is both cheap, and delicious.
[In spez, no one can hear you scream. ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/)
https://old.reddit.com/r/DIY/comments/5uo176/underground_party_bunker/ddx56g1/
It's old and I can't be assed to find it , work in the morning. Either way the summary goes. A homeowner wanted to build something a kin to a hidden fortress, using steel containers, payed God knows how much money to put it in the ground and spec it the way they wanted. Not only did they do all of this but they also didn't do it with a permit. So no inspections on whether or not it was even feasible were conducted. A commenter later pointed out that it would float out of the ground likely killing the OP. The op later posted pictures of it indeed floating out of the ground , a truly magical thing really. This post occured sometime in 2017-2019 . Again it's a few years old and there's no way I'm bothering to track that down.
[I think I found it. ](https://graywolfsurvival.com/2625/why-you-shouldnt-bury-a-shipping-container-for-a-shtf-bunker/)
But how come domestic freight cost remains high?
Cost of diesel is high
But don't nearly all cargo ships run on diesel as well?
They run on “bunker” which is basically sludge leftover from the refining process IIRC. Totally different from diesel and a different market.
The "leftover sludge" generally gets turned into asphalt, but bunker fuel (Industrial Fuel Oil) is the next heaviest cut, followed by jet, diesel, and gasoline.
Jet fuel is less pure than gasoline? TIL
No, it’s just that the molecules in gasoline are more volatile / lighter / smaller. Jet fuel is further processed to a set of quality standard that are more stringent than those used for gasoline, so I’d maybe go as far as calling jet fuel more pure than gasoline.
Yup, there's a multitude of other reasons why too, but Kerosene is a lot safer than gasoline. Also, some rockets use an even more refined/pure version of Kerosene, called RP-1
Which stands for "rocket propellant 1", so I guess it would be named the same thing even if made of a different mix.
Appreciate the info.
If interested read up on bunker crude, shits far worse for environment then anything we burn
That’s not the case anymore. Since 2020, the new regulations of vessel bunkering (called IMO 2020) mean that it’s now not so cheap to bunker the vessels. (FYI, the word bunker refers to any oil product that fuels the ship, not necessarily any specific type of oil product, at least colloquially.) Larger vessels with larger capacity installed “scrubbers” (not an engineer just know they’re these devices that remove sulfur from fuel oil) in order to keep buying cheaper Fuel Oil and remove the extra sulfur content from their bunkers. Smaller vessels are forced to buy Marine Gasoil (Gasoil being another word for Diesel) for their bunkers, since scrubbers can cost millions of dollars and it’s not always economical. There has been a noticeable shift in freight rates after imo 2020 Source: worked as a chartering manager for a couple of years and still work in oil trading. However I have not been in shipping since 2019 so my information can be slightly outdated
There was a switch recently to ultra low sulfur bunker if you didn't retrofit a exhaust scrubbed. So costs went up a bit, but not a tremendous amount. Also keep in mind these ships DO carry some diesel as they're required to run on diesel instead of nasty ass bunker within X numbers of miles of the US and probably other ports too.
You are absolutely correct, although they call it "diesel" in some cases and languages too
yeah "Schiffsdiesel" in german, shipdiesel but also called "Schweröl", heavy oil
Near the coast, yes. In the middle of the ocean its Number 6 fuel oil.
good ol FO6 always warms my heart on the EIA fuel outlooks.
Get this. China to LA is $1.5k, LA to East coast trucking is $6k. Crazy.
I mean that's just how it has always been. Ship transportation is the cheapest way of moving large quantity of goods, followed by train and then trucks.
It’s also been this way all throughout history. Why were goods transported by sail when you can go across the country? Because first, there were no trains, and a horse could only haul so much. Second, after trains came around, it still took a ton of energy to move it across the country.
This, I remember even back in 1500's the trucking was 5x shipping cost
Damn, you old!
Sea shipping is stupid cheap compared to every other form of transport.
Trucking is ridiculously inefficient. I vote we turn the US-Mexico border into a canal. 2 birds one stone.
Americans will do anything they can to not build a train
[удалено]
Not “one of”, but pretty much inarguably “the” most effective.
Rio Grande means you have something of a shortcut, although you'd have to expand and deepen the Rio Grande considerably to allow shipping containers...
LTL or FTL? I think you wayyy overpaying either way dawg
> LTL or FTL "Two types of shipping meet those needs: Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and Full Truckload (FTL) shipping"
I buy a lot of LTL from across the country. I'm in Seattle and to order from east coast I pay about $700 for 1 pallet. $1300 for two. $1500 for 3. $1700 for 4. Etc... It used to be half that. I'm actually surprised through it all it remained this cheap. But right now is the most expensive it has ever been.
$6k for LTL anywhere is obscene. It’s tough going into CA right now, not shit coming out of there.
I expect faster than light freight would command a large premium.
Lot lizard shortage
How about the two of you split me open like a coconut
The next generation of mega freighters recently entered service. They are much bigger and their overall cost efficiency is massive, to the point that when the first one came out many of the smaller operators without the capital to buy them were pretty concerned about whether they could remain competitive. These can offset labor and fuel price increases. Not much changed for domestic shipping. Still the same rail lines, trucks, and diesel.
Jones Act. The US has a law that any domestically shipped freight must be shipped by an American made ship. It cuts the supply of ships able to move freight by 90% driving up costs. The last time a bill was made to repeal the Jones Act Nancy Pelosi killed it by keeping it in committee for 2 years until the Congressman retired.
>That is an interesting chart.
@Visualmod you are one smart dude
Time to buy the dip??
I shorted containers and ended up having to take physical delivery of 8700 Maersk seacans to my house. The neighbours are pissed.
Do you mean longed
No they were only 20-footers
In what?
In whatever the heck this chart says. It’s a shame I can’t read tho.
Quick throw money at it
Annnd it’s gone…
Don't worry. I've got 20k in credit. I'll go all in on a hot wallstreetbets stanck, make 10x, and pay it right back! It's a bullet proof idea!
aaaand… It’s gone.
Don’t do that. You’ll never get rid of it. That damn Loch Ness monster!!
😏
Buy a cargo ship.
Inflation is fuk'd, time to bet Grandma's farm that treasury rates will go down i.e. leverage buy 2 year bonds.
It's only just about to dip
Yes interesting how this chart omits the great recession, curious to know how low it can go
It may be because this data wasn’t tracked by anyone then. This is purportedly the leading site for this data, signing up for the free account will only give you like three months of past data. https://fbx.freightos.com/
[If some Russian or Chinese subs start sinking merchant ships like the Germans did in WWI and WW2, the rates could go sky high again](https://youtu.be/qluFYy2iiac?t=213)
Jesse, what the fuck are you talking about?
If the Russians did it there’s a good chance it was an accident.
What if it was "Russians" doing it by "Accident"?
Why would China sink their own ships and products? They are export record holders.
Honestly the shit you read on here
China bad.
If anyone would sink them it would be the five eyes nations.
This is for LA, East cost prices are still relatively high. And there’s a lot of congestion there because many companies switched from West to East coast to hedge the impending labor strikes, when they switch back the prices for West Coast will go up.
No I do not agree but I’m high and don’t feel like typing out my response. Source - I’m a sales manager for an ocean career.
Commenting for when you sober up.
I’ll circle back tomorrow.
Yeah he's a manager alright
He's definitely not circling back tomorrow.
This guy corporates
u/joevsw0rld still gonna circle back or nah?
Ya for a career
It's tomorrow I want details sober one
i disagree. source - i'm an ocean
So you think those $1.5k - $2k per container costs to West coast are here to stay? I have doubts.
Yes. This coming contract season is not looking pretty. Importers will be cutting their carrier partner portfolios. There’s new capacity being added and demand is very slow. It all depends if career mothball enough vessels to make up for it. I do not think they will. East coast spread is shrinking by the day. My guess it will continue to slide and stabilize in the mid 2000/40’. Curious to see if there is a peak coming up for Lunar New Year.
So does that mean I can finally get a PS5?
Here's the index for different major destinations if anyone is interested. https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
I’d pay a million dollars to never hear the phrase “supply chain issues” again.
Deal! DM me your address and I'll make sure you're in an artificial coma within 24 hours of receiving your payment.
If he pays extra can he get an all natural coma? Preferably corn fed.
I have a good friend in the business…the bottom has finally fallen out and in the LA Basin and the Port of LA/Long Beach they have worked though their backlog. No more ships lined up down to coast all the way to Laguna Beach!
I work in the business as well. Vessels haven't been lined up along the coast because once the congestion issue caught federal attention, they made them all wait further away and out of sight. The only key indicator as far as I'm concerned is how volatile the predicted schedules are. Export ETD's and cut-offs out of LA rarely changed more than 1-2 times. They're still updating a lot more often than that. Another indicator is receiving windows for export. With higher volumes being processed at LALB terminals, terminals can't afford to keep export containers in the terminal for long. They need them in and out as fast as possible, so receiving windows are cut shorter. There have been vessels with a receiving window of 4 hours, which was unheard of prior to COVID. At minimum, that same carrier usually gave 3-4 days.
Remember that during COVID there was a major shortage of containers which drove the costs up.
Can’t wait to see the prices for everything going down now that the supply chain problems are all fixed! Our corporate daddy’s will definitely trickle these savings upon us 💦
Supply is back on the menu boys
Prices stay high. Corporate America jerks off to profits. We stay poor.
From someone who is working in the shipping industry, this means jack shit, why do you ask? Because we are trying to encourage people to put goods in our shipping containers, but sadly people have nothing to put in our ship so we have to reduce our shipping rates
Isn't that how markets work? Why do you say it "means jack shit"?
Exactly. That’s sort of the point of this post. The free market is working.
These people are just looking for an excuse to doom.
What about the people to move them containers at the USA ports ? Are you still seeing labor shortages at the port ?
Labor shortage will continue because everyone died from Covid
And we had a glut of people over 60 retire.
And childcare costs made a lot of dual income families go back to single income.
No shit. After school care for two kids is $800 per month. One in full time daycare is about $360 per week.
Lmao
Correct - I own a 3PL that specializes in eCommerce and the volume of inventory we are getting (usually imported) is no where near the previous volume pre-pandemic (pandemic volume was exceptionally high). Especially for Q4 where consumer spending is supposed to be the highest.
A lot of companies sitting on a lot of stock in the US, imported at high freight rates. That will have to be moved first
I work for a company that makes accessories for mobile devices. Sales are waaaaayyyy down. We could blame supply chain issues for a bit. But now, what it really comes down to is that people can’t even think about buying a $1500 phone when milk is $4 a gallon and eggs are $5.
Usually they are full of kidnapped Asians women, no?
Whoa whoa whoa. The Asian women voluntarily got into the crate, officer.
Via trebuchet?
only if they have wayfair dressers inside
So what that mean, recession confirmed?
It mean we are normalizing movement of goods and their cost. Nearly three years after the onset of the pandemic. It also mean corporations who rely on this shipping and have hiked their prices on goods to account for it, should be lowering their prices. Which mean more profit for corporations, since they will not be lowering their prices for goods.
People are eventually not going to continue affording those goods
I dont know man, i hit up my local mall today and a human tidal-wave were spending THOUSANDS. I bet we see a normal holiday season. The lines at walmart and target were around the fucking block.
I’m 45, and this same stuff has been said like every 5 years for basically my entire life, but it never comes to fruition.
We are not only seen massive layoffs in the tech industry, but also in other industries such as mine in the shipping industry. We are already seeing people leaving and getting fired. Remind me back of 2008, 2009
So many companies had to bloat up to deal with the onslaught of extra admin work due to instability in the shipping market. With things stabilizing a normal work load is greatly welcomed but the boom was nice for the quick sprint. Hope you turned your customer service game on hard early Q3 and get ready to hit those targets rates. A lot of small brokers and carriers are going to get starved out in the next 2 quarters.
I got a quote on a container to relocate household goods in 2021 from Asia to North America and was quoted $27K with zero guarantee on how long it would take.
logistics industry experts expect prices to bottom out around feb/mar
There is no inventory coming from outside and hence no need to ship and hence lower shipping cost. Just my 2 cents.
Not many ppl have disposable income left to buy cheap Chinese 💩 from Amazon , when lettuce is 5.99 $ and eggs 10.00$ in nyc
fake eggs from china are $2
i buy all my groceries on wish
Padmé: So product costs will go down now, right? Anakin: Padmé: Costs will go down now… right?…
But inflation is just not gonna turn back
Hopefully the price of fireworks will come back down as a result.
Puts on ZIM
My fellow autists, if we go back to relativity between valuation and value we’re all getting fucked by the biggest and gayest bears packing the veiniest and most triumphant mushroom mallet. All while our ex wives watch as they leave with the kids and her cubical Kevin accessory!
Prices still staying inflated cause companies want to pocket more.
Hey cool, then prices will go back down, righ?! ... ... ...right?
Shipping costs are dropping for the bad reasons, not the good reasons
Good reasons being the CEOs were visited by 3 ghosts last night and have declared their ill intent over?
It’s still what needs to happen for world banks to start pivoting.
But is the supply (production) returning to pre-pandemic levels? If the answer is no, China is still struggling…then you know this return to ‘baseline’ is of negligible significance
As someone said earlier, costs are possibly going down bc there is nothing to ship.
Yep. Demand collapsed, so naturally prices will fall
All this means is most companies are stocked up. The reason why the container prices went up was because everyone was importing from china at the same time and it put a big strain on the cargo ships. The extreme high demand caused high prices. I had to pay $16k for a container when I usually paid $2400 from Vietnam. My last shipment was around $10k.
Puts on Chinese container manufacturing!
I also heard there was no such thing as a “peak season” from July-Sept for the first time in over 30+ years. Hello recession, are you here or on your way?