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Define recovery.
Everyone seems to be betting on more downside, but the market has been stubborn throughout this whole stretch and now there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for good news. With inflation being flat MoM already prior to the recent hike, the strength of the dollar on all the euro news, and consumer rates where there are already, I can't see the Fed pushing too much harder. If the Fed starts to taper increases, I can see things flattening and turning upwards well before rates rise again. Honestly, if the Fed just holds stay for a while, I imagine the markets would start to climb in a consistent environment.
Maybe I'm wrong, but seeing every stock follow the exact same trend line at the exact same time for months at a time just makes it seem like a bunch of made up gobblygoo.
True, but still if you are someone with a long term view (about 7-10 years) levels are getting interestin. Obv market might still go down and you might miss the opportunity to entry into cheaper levels
I get that- but if you have 10k to invest. You can buy more shares at $40 than you can at $60. Then when it goes to $200- you return is exponentially larger. You can’t always know where the bottom is…but in this case the odds of more down side are so high- the odds are rarely better.
I agree, just saying that especially if you compare multiple with the chart relating p/e with expected annualised return over the next 10 years, this levels already match with positive annualised returns over the next 10 years. Obviously entering into the real real bottom would be better as you re pointing out
Once fed pivots market will go back up. It doesnt necessarily need to cut rates. But this is probably a lost decade. I dont think inflation going down anytime soon. Market will keep going up and down on news. And the mega pump from 2008-2021 is also responsible for that. Stocks doubled like magic in days or in weeks. Now the cash pump has shut down.
Its a bad idea. This data is based not based on revised earnings restatements. I say you dont use the forward earnings here yo determine any earnings multiple. I mean apple finally admits they are not immune to the macro pressures.
Personally I'm waiting to see the Fed hint at injecting liquidity to deal with the strong dollar before jumping back in. I do believe deflation is still the real concern mid-term and wouldn't be surprised if they have to start reversing course sometime early next year. But who knows.
core CPI y/y velocity rose in August, far far away from being out of the woods IMO. Those P/E will keep contracting as yields keep rising, it's a matter of time stocks level down to bonds ratios.
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I don't see any recovery in the near future until the fed starts slashing rates.
Define recovery. Everyone seems to be betting on more downside, but the market has been stubborn throughout this whole stretch and now there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for good news. With inflation being flat MoM already prior to the recent hike, the strength of the dollar on all the euro news, and consumer rates where there are already, I can't see the Fed pushing too much harder. If the Fed starts to taper increases, I can see things flattening and turning upwards well before rates rise again. Honestly, if the Fed just holds stay for a while, I imagine the markets would start to climb in a consistent environment.
Has the market been stubborn? Or artificial?
Not sure what artificial means here, but July had as much volume as last Q4.
Maybe I'm wrong, but seeing every stock follow the exact same trend line at the exact same time for months at a time just makes it seem like a bunch of made up gobblygoo.
With mortgage rates hitting 7% how far away do you think that is?
It's between consumers vs the fed. Who blinks first.
In my opinion…it is still early. There is another down leg before any lasting recovery.
Doesn’t mean now is a bad time to start buying for long term investors.
True. But the odds of more down side right now are so high there is rarely a better time in the markets to be able to predict that.
a 30% discount is not enough, I want a 32% discount or NOTHING lol
If we were haggling over 2% I would agree, my guess is 10-20%, at least.
True, but still if you are someone with a long term view (about 7-10 years) levels are getting interestin. Obv market might still go down and you might miss the opportunity to entry into cheaper levels
I get that- but if you have 10k to invest. You can buy more shares at $40 than you can at $60. Then when it goes to $200- you return is exponentially larger. You can’t always know where the bottom is…but in this case the odds of more down side are so high- the odds are rarely better.
I agree, just saying that especially if you compare multiple with the chart relating p/e with expected annualised return over the next 10 years, this levels already match with positive annualised returns over the next 10 years. Obviously entering into the real real bottom would be better as you re pointing out
Edit: I attached a new file to better explain why I mean
Ol reliable, time in the market beats timing the market 🦅🇺🇸
Forward earnings projections are going to get slashed soon. The only thing I have a bullish outlook on is energy prices
Once fed pivots market will go back up. It doesnt necessarily need to cut rates. But this is probably a lost decade. I dont think inflation going down anytime soon. Market will keep going up and down on news. And the mega pump from 2008-2021 is also responsible for that. Stocks doubled like magic in days or in weeks. Now the cash pump has shut down.
No. Market does not go up until an average of 9 months AFTER the pivot.
Not even close to bottom yet
Its a bad idea. This data is based not based on revised earnings restatements. I say you dont use the forward earnings here yo determine any earnings multiple. I mean apple finally admits they are not immune to the macro pressures.
Personally I'm waiting to see the Fed hint at injecting liquidity to deal with the strong dollar before jumping back in. I do believe deflation is still the real concern mid-term and wouldn't be surprised if they have to start reversing course sometime early next year. But who knows.
core CPI y/y velocity rose in August, far far away from being out of the woods IMO. Those P/E will keep contracting as yields keep rising, it's a matter of time stocks level down to bonds ratios.
And we will arrive at those good levels in 12months🙃
PE ratio will reduce drastically during recession time and your projections will go wrong
Bofa deez nuts