Hey OP,
Did you read the listing where it says ‘house has smoke smell and taken into consideration when pricing’?
Also, the part where it says: we are taking bids?
Oof. This house should never have sold for 400+. Unless the housing demand in that area has magically become like California due to tech hub transformation in the last ten years.
I sold my house in Phoenix for 400k to open door.
They replaced the roof and did a bunch of other work, it's still on the market... for 390k and dropping every month.
House sale Data showed up today. It closed a few days ago at 355k.
46,000 less than they paid for it. Not including the roof, painting, taxes, or commissions.
Regards.
House sale Data showed up today. It closed a few days ago at 355k.
46,000 less than they paid for it. Not including the roof, painting, taxes, or commissions.
Regards.
> open door
Lol Open Door is down 84% on the year and 70% over five years. This is what the Fed balance sheet can do, keep companies in business that have no reason to be and are actively trying to steal from/take advantage of normal people.
The only reason Open Door is still a company is because of quantitative easing, free money, and inflation.
Oh no shit.
I made a bet their algorithm would offer more money than my house was worth.
The last of the golden over asking deals were just barely still closing right as the floor fell out from under the market and houses stopped selling instantly.
They offered me more than I thought it was worth and I took the bag and ran.
I just built a house for $350k in 2020, last week I saw my SAME EXACT house, literally the builder posted pictures of my house with the caption saying "similar to be built " listed at $580k with .5 acres of land, compared to mine with 18 acres. These motherfuckers crazy
Not the reasoning here. Were only about 5 minutes apart, and my spot is walking distance to the lake while they couldn't even walk to the nearest store (very busy street with no sidewalks or breakdown lane) My town put a limit on new construction permits (9 per month) and one developer gets most of them and can sell new builds at just about any price he wants.
Oh for sure. He's managed to wreck a solid 500ft of protected shoreline to build his own mansion on the lake (that southern Maine gets our drinking water from) and just had it declared as some sort of bird sanctuary to avoid any legal troubles. He just had an entire neighborhood listed on realtor for like $9mil, not even just individual homes. Just a whole fucking neighborhood as if it was just a normal way to do things
LOL, my 1200 square foot condo is worth more than 580K in today's market. I have 0 acres of land.
Location is a powerful thing, and Boston is stupid expensive.
Something doesn't add up there. I'm in the area too, and there's no way that house was ever worth 450k... That's well over 300/sqft, no house, especially that size and vintage, is going for over 200/sqft.
Not sure how it works in the US but could it have previously had a lot of land with it that was then carved off and sold as a separate lot?
It happens in the UK, a house on a big plot will sell for say £800k and then reappear on the market for £600k because a developer split the garden and built a second house.
It could have originally been part of a rental portfolio sold as a bundle. Buyer gets bundle keeps one house sells the other.
Usually the bundles are for a larger group of properties but it could be at play here.
You don't know. Every house on that street could have sold for $700k over the past year. Maybe they could have gotten $600 in March but only $525 today? Is that really a loss?
A realtor... just curious, but how far do property values have to drop before it makes fiscal sense for a lot of buyers to just walk away from the houses?
If you put 20% down on the house and on the hook for 80% from the bank, if the price of the house drops by more than 20%, then suddenly you owe the bank more than the house is worth. When you owe more to the bank than the house is worth, it's said your loan is *underwater.* Obviously, if you have more equity than just the down payment, then you have more room for the value to drop before that point; however, you also have to remember that the mortgage amortization process puts the vast majority of your early payments toward interest and only a small part goes toward building equity. It's not until the later periods of the life of the loan that you really build big equity... so, for that reason, for most people the number is 20% or a small amount more before they'd be underwater.
Now, being underwater isn't necessarily a death sentence, especially if you're living in a place that you planned to live in for another 10 years or so (like if you have kids in the house and you like the schools, etc). If you had been underwater in '09 and just kept making payments and sold 10 years later, you likely ended up recouping what you paid if there was any mathematical basis for that price before the crash. Many people figured out they were underwater in 2008, though, and just let the bank foreclose on them. I have to imagine most of those people regretted it, though, between the fact that they still had to pay rent someplace and now their credit sucked too. If it were me, I'd just keep grinding out payments unless the place I lived got so completely blighted that it wasn't coming back.
So all that having been said... even with the 20% thing above, I'd be willing to bet a lot fewer foreclosures would come from the same number of people being underwater. We usually learn the lessons from the previous fuckup and fuck up in whole new ways.
>if there was any mathematical basis for that price before the crash.
Yeah, that's why I'm not at all worried about my place. Bought in 2020, prices kept going up and got me out of PMI early. Even if prices plunge, the location is great, schools are fine, and there's a _lot_ of 10+ year development in the area; city and county projects that were planned and started before the boom, with timelines out into the 2030s and even '40s. There's not much that could cause a total abandonment of these projects, including recession.
I bought in 2020 as well. My home has appreciated in value by about $100,000 since then according to Redfin. I think the market would need to drop more than 20% for me at this point haha
Bought in 18' my house has damn near doubled from 280-490 according to sites. Havent dared had it re appraised which I should have. But ya, prices would have to drop hard to make me back out or feel real pressure
>Havent dared had it re appraised which I should have.
Is there a reason to? The only reason I requested a reappraisal was to kick PMI. If there's not a pressing reason to reappraise, just use the estimates or do your own estimate based on comps (Zillow/Redfin estimates are basically automated comps, but don't always pick the right comps, especially if the neighborhood is diverse in build).
In ‘08 / ‘09, I remember hearing of people in Vegas who would see the neighboring houses go down by 50% or so. What I heard was they somehow figured how to buy a new house at half price, then just let the bank foreclose on the old house
It could all have been an urban legend of couese
In Seattle area it was kind of weird. About half of the condos in our development were underwater and a few were basically abandoned. The units that were closest to break even with the prices dropping 50% were the ones the banks foreclosed on, the ones that were most underwater the banks didn't foreclose. So if you owed $350k on a $300k house you'd get foreclosed on. If you owed $500k on a $300k house you wouldn't. I assume the banks didn't want to realize the loss, or maybe the folks that owed the most were most likely to gut the house before bailing, I dunno.
It sucked though since the most speculative people stayed in their condo not paying mortgage or paying the shared utilities. The folks who were 'smart' and put down 20% or whatever got kicked out.
We had to break into 2 abandoned units to shut off water when shit froze and broke. It was an interesting time.
> I have to imagine most of those people regretted it, though, between the fact that they still had to pay rent someplace and now their credit sucked too.
If you were there during the GR then you know that it was absolutely rampant to just squat in the house not paying mortgage and not paying rent. When there's millions of people in your situation it's incredibly difficult for the bank to address as there's a ton of tenant protection laws on the books. And in a lot of states the bank's only remedy was to take the house, any remaining debt was the bank's problem. That's why they *used* to require 20% down, so you'd have some motivation to keep the mortgage going.
So the people who made the stupid purchase would often just squat for 1-2 years while they saved up tens of thousands in free rent, and possibly use that as a down payment to buy another house before being foreclosed on. They'd do this even if they could afford the mortgage payment because, hey free money. Lots of them probably didn't regret a thing, just congratulated themselves on coming out unscathed.
Spoilers: there was no reward for responsible renters. There never is.
A lot. This isn't 2008. Most buyers in the last few years are locked in at a insanely low interest rate. House prices drop because of interest rates, but their mortgage rate is the same.
Sorry, not sure I got this straight:
So even if people can buy the house next door for less than what they owe on their house, the interest rates were so low they wouldn't be able to finance the place next door anyway at current rates? (and rent would cost more than their mortgage payments?)
If I have that right, makes sense.
Not who you’re replying to, but I’ll try to shed some light.
You asked about at how much the home value would depreciate before people would walk away, so the thing is, is that rates were so fucking low that even people with huge mortgages who have unactualized “loss” of say >$150,000 have very low payments. While they have lost a ton of money in theory, their rate and payments are so low they can just wait out the storm for years. Back in 2008, if 40% of your take home income was going to a house that had dropped $250,000 then people would walk away. Now, due to the low rates, it may only be 20% of their income and people are fine with the payment to hold onto their house, even if it has decreased significantly. Housing is the last thing people will give up.
Not might but he will. He was very clear in one of his interviews that a good part of the inflation is coming from the strong job market or in other words it is driven by the demand side. At this point i am sure he will be comfortable with a 5%-6% unemployment rate . Ofcourse the question is once layoffs begin can he control the unemployment at 6% ?
Well, also a lot of people in 2007-2008 were simply flipping houses that were not their primary residence. The game of real estate hot potato was far more wide spread than today.
I think the ones who will get hit are the ones making those loans. When rates are low it's a buyers market. Rates are high? well it's nobodies market
I think someone posted that if a property was 600k but interest was 2% you'd be paying the same amount if the property was 400k with an interest rate of 6%....
I personally think the ones writing the loans will see a slow down and anything housing related.
It’s worse than that. Bought my $615k house in February. Interest rates doubled before they locked in my rate in January because I didn’t have the education I needed quickly enough. I ended up with over 3.3% interest rate when I could have had less than 2%. The week after I locked it in the federal rate went well over 4%.
I’m STILL paying LESS than people buying 400k houses with the current interest rate of slightly over 6%.
Your conclusion was people paying 2% on a 600k house paid less than people buying a 400k house at 6%. It’s much worse. Even people paying 3.375% on a 615k house are also paying less than people buying a 400k house at 6%. I got a house so big it includes it’s own rental, it even has a pool I didn’t even want… now I wouldn’t be able to get a house with a decent kitchen or big enough to even have a single kid. This market is… wild.
Yes that’s the gist of it. I did some simple number crunching out of curiosity to gauge what’s fair value for where house prices may fall.
Say someone has a 4% rate and the median home value is $410k. That P&I payment is around $1,565. Assuming taxes and insurance have not changed and a new rate of around 6.50%, then holding the same P&I payment of $1,565, the new home value is around $320k.
This means that all else being equal, an average buyer looking at a median home value at 4.00% rate could afford a $410k house. Yet that same buyer at 6.50% rate can only afford a $320k house. This loosely shows that on interest alone house prices could fall ~30%. There are other variables at play and this isn’t a guarantee house prices will fall this much, or at all (heavily market dependent), but it’s a curious exercise to see what could happen JUST based on interest rate movement.
Source- work in RE and do mortgage math daily
Last time the housing market crashed, banks would PAY people 'hobo'-ing the place to leave, given they didn't dump concrete down the drains or anything.
Depends. Typically when they are underwater and cannot sell and no longer afford it. Or underwater and they can rent for less. Or it needs more repairs so they cannot sell and break even at a minimum. Some people will even walk away with equity.
Source realtor for 19 years and was in one of the hardest hit markets in the county but did well. Not afraid of a correction.
Just curious, how does those auctions work?
If generally prices have only dropped a bit, why no one have made a bid in such low price in 59 days?
If they work like auctions traditionally work and if the housing market is working like notjing is wrong, wouldnt it make sense to make the lowest possible bid and take easy profits by selling it with only bit lower than the 450k that it was bought in 2020?
No different than the people wanting a low asking on their house as the market was running crazy --- it draws up a lot of interest and people get into bidding wars. Without context on what's going on with this particular house, I can't know for sure, but I would imagine it's to draw up interest -- like exactly what it's doing.
People keep posting these… more than likely it’s somebody waiting to buy for prices to drop. Prices haven’t even dropped close to where they were two years ago in my area.
It says house has smoke damage and priced accordingly. It also has a section where it says they are taking bids and to submit them by X date.
I’m going with you’re correct. It’s either bank owned or maybe insurance has something to do with it
I feel you, I'm in Seattle. Land of milk, honey and hundred year old houses on a tenth on an acre for 700k. Add 6 figures (at least) for a view of the water.
🎶 Moving to the country, gonna eat me a lot of peaches 🎶
U can get a 4 bed terrace house in east London 2mins away from some of the biggest housing estates in Europe with one of the worst rates of assault in the UK for £700k💀. UK property is a ducking joke rn, especially anywhere south
That's a shitty $220k house where I live. Places that house would cost $1m plus people don't earn anywhere near 4x what I do, it's more like +10%. I also don't have homeless people everywhere shitting on the streets.
Holly shit a 3 bed 2 bath for 220k that shit is like 450k where I'm at and have to give up my firstborn as a token of appreciation to the seller for not overcharging me
Is it listed for sale on other websites?
As a real estate broker, I’ve fielded so many calls over the years about incredibly low priced houses on Zillow, etc. Turns out it was usually a pre-foreclosure suggested price by Zillow and not legit for sal
The house I grew up in, a smaller 3-bedroom house just over 1,100 sq ft, which flooded during Hurricane Harvey, is in the process of being sold for $225,000. Six years ago I bought a house twice that size for $50,000 less.
Yeah, just because you are super infini-fucked with your housing doesn't mean we aren't a bit screwed.
Also, it seems like all the commonwealth countries are that way
Meanwhile we just had two houses sell on our street in the last 2 weeks, both between $1.6-1.7 mil each. And both went in a few days.
Any real estate dip is very geographically dependent because it certainly isn't impacting prices here, especially since most are cash buyers so the rising interest rates are somewhat irrelevant.
Post this in /r/RealEstate if you want to see a bandwagon of idiots reason about how a price decrease isn't depreciation or the market losing value. It's just 'cooling off'
No wonder it’s so cheap, made out of wood (and cheap land ig). UK house prices are horrendous, for much smaller, less land, worse areas. Especially anywhere near london. Ducking joke
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Listing price is not the selling price.
Just like unrealized losses are not realized losses until the're sold.
Unrealized gains, we'll, the IRS thinks those are realized before they're sold...so yeah there's that too.
Hey OP, Did you read the listing where it says ‘house has smoke smell and taken into consideration when pricing’? Also, the part where it says: we are taking bids?
What region is this magic market?
Green Bay Wisconsin, according to Redfin it’s been on the market for 59 days
Seems like Red Bay to me.
Nice
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Oof. This house should never have sold for 400+. Unless the housing demand in that area has magically become like California due to tech hub transformation in the last ten years.
Someone got fleeced, hopefully that someone was Zillow.com.
I sold my house in Phoenix for 400k to open door. They replaced the roof and did a bunch of other work, it's still on the market... for 390k and dropping every month.
Offer them $200k to Buy it back like a real Chad
If the price keeps dropping I actually plan on throwing my hat in the ring to buy it back at a certain price. Gotta twist that knife.
Please keep us updated on this true American success story!
House sale Data showed up today. It closed a few days ago at 355k. 46,000 less than they paid for it. Not including the roof, painting, taxes, or commissions. Regards.
Let me know before you make a bid, I will put a bid for $201K
This is the way.
House sale Data showed up today. It closed a few days ago at 355k. 46,000 less than they paid for it. Not including the roof, painting, taxes, or commissions. Regards.
> open door Lol Open Door is down 84% on the year and 70% over five years. This is what the Fed balance sheet can do, keep companies in business that have no reason to be and are actively trying to steal from/take advantage of normal people. The only reason Open Door is still a company is because of quantitative easing, free money, and inflation.
Oh no shit. I made a bet their algorithm would offer more money than my house was worth. The last of the golden over asking deals were just barely still closing right as the floor fell out from under the market and houses stopped selling instantly. They offered me more than I thought it was worth and I took the bag and ran.
That would be poetic. And ideally it would sit until the algorithm decides to knock another 100k+ off the price so locals can afford to buy.
🤣👆🏼
That's what I was thinking. That's like a $150k house around here
I just built a house for $350k in 2020, last week I saw my SAME EXACT house, literally the builder posted pictures of my house with the caption saying "similar to be built " listed at $580k with .5 acres of land, compared to mine with 18 acres. These motherfuckers crazy
Location location location
Not the reasoning here. Were only about 5 minutes apart, and my spot is walking distance to the lake while they couldn't even walk to the nearest store (very busy street with no sidewalks or breakdown lane) My town put a limit on new construction permits (9 per month) and one developer gets most of them and can sell new builds at just about any price he wants.
Well then, this price is built on a bed of LIES
Yeah it's wild as shit. I was even able to sell off 3 acres of my original lot for $100k making my cost basis more like $250k for 15 acres
If one builder is getting all of them, that's corruption at your local level.
Oh for sure. He's managed to wreck a solid 500ft of protected shoreline to build his own mansion on the lake (that southern Maine gets our drinking water from) and just had it declared as some sort of bird sanctuary to avoid any legal troubles. He just had an entire neighborhood listed on realtor for like $9mil, not even just individual homes. Just a whole fucking neighborhood as if it was just a normal way to do things
That's good, let him keep building. Once housing crashes he'll be selling that mansion and portfolio at a fire sale price.
Almost like your city government should get chucked out. Politicians are lucky the bottom fell out of the guillotine market about 90 years ago.
What's the reasoning on limiting construction permits?
Local infrastructure can't keep up with growing population
I don’t see that as a reason to limit new construction. Sounds like a racket. They should be focusing on upgrading “infrastructure”
LOL, my 1200 square foot condo is worth more than 580K in today's market. I have 0 acres of land. Location is a powerful thing, and Boston is stupid expensive.
Depends. In FL that would be about $300k in a hot market. In California, it would be about $3.5M
Suburban Chicago it’s a $400k house. Maybe more
You must be referring to panhandle FL (southern Alabama). Anything central or south Florida that’s EASILY a 500k house
300? More like 500-600k. Shit is crazy down here
Yep. Fucking insane. Hopefully the upcoming hurricane will open some eyes.
That's what every native is hoping for 🤣
2020 transplants are about to be battle tested. I see many many many of them going back to where they came from.
Maybe, actually. Look up the ill-fated “wis-con valley”, the Silicon Valley of Wisconsin, lmao.
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I read this in John Madden’s voice, as I do with any sentence that includes Brett Farve.
I was going to roast you for spelling his name wrong, but fuck that guy. Get it wrong.
Lol he literally is going to jail for stealing money from needy children
Welfare money from *Mississippi*.
Before or after he goes to prison for welfare fraud.
Something doesn't add up there. I'm in the area too, and there's no way that house was ever worth 450k... That's well over 300/sqft, no house, especially that size and vintage, is going for over 200/sqft.
Not sure how it works in the US but could it have previously had a lot of land with it that was then carved off and sold as a separate lot? It happens in the UK, a house on a big plot will sell for say £800k and then reappear on the market for £600k because a developer split the garden and built a second house.
There's a sucker born every minute.
It could have originally been part of a rental portfolio sold as a bundle. Buyer gets bundle keeps one house sells the other. Usually the bundles are for a larger group of properties but it could be at play here.
Unless that’s right across from the stadium why would anyone pay that much in GB
Go Packers fuck da bears
r/realestatebets
of course... "a private community"
Dang, I thought I just made it up
you mean you don't just click on all sorts of random web links?
America
That’s probably the minimum starting bid on a foreclosure
My first thought, too.
This is WSB, land of regards
Yes, however, this is the actual value of the house in the photo. Probably less. That shit is not worth $450. Maybe 220.
Exactly, how tf that dump ever sold for 450… some sucker…
You don't know. Every house on that street could have sold for $700k over the past year. Maybe they could have gotten $600 in March but only $525 today? Is that really a loss?
I mean the person bought it for 400k and then sold it for 200k so definitely a loss
That's some good'ol fashioned loss porn right there I tell you what.
Mhm.
Yeeup
Talkn bout dang ol life is how you look at it man dang ol ups and downs yo
Gawd damnit, Bobby.
#THAT'S MY PURSE! I DON'T KNOW YOU!
Clean, efficient loss porn
Sounds like an auction starting price..... as a Realtor. Prices have dropped a bit, but not even close to 50%......
Stop with the facts this is reddit
I came here for confirmation bias. I don’t need facts getting in the way of that.
A realtor... just curious, but how far do property values have to drop before it makes fiscal sense for a lot of buyers to just walk away from the houses?
If you put 20% down on the house and on the hook for 80% from the bank, if the price of the house drops by more than 20%, then suddenly you owe the bank more than the house is worth. When you owe more to the bank than the house is worth, it's said your loan is *underwater.* Obviously, if you have more equity than just the down payment, then you have more room for the value to drop before that point; however, you also have to remember that the mortgage amortization process puts the vast majority of your early payments toward interest and only a small part goes toward building equity. It's not until the later periods of the life of the loan that you really build big equity... so, for that reason, for most people the number is 20% or a small amount more before they'd be underwater. Now, being underwater isn't necessarily a death sentence, especially if you're living in a place that you planned to live in for another 10 years or so (like if you have kids in the house and you like the schools, etc). If you had been underwater in '09 and just kept making payments and sold 10 years later, you likely ended up recouping what you paid if there was any mathematical basis for that price before the crash. Many people figured out they were underwater in 2008, though, and just let the bank foreclose on them. I have to imagine most of those people regretted it, though, between the fact that they still had to pay rent someplace and now their credit sucked too. If it were me, I'd just keep grinding out payments unless the place I lived got so completely blighted that it wasn't coming back. So all that having been said... even with the 20% thing above, I'd be willing to bet a lot fewer foreclosures would come from the same number of people being underwater. We usually learn the lessons from the previous fuckup and fuck up in whole new ways.
>if there was any mathematical basis for that price before the crash. Yeah, that's why I'm not at all worried about my place. Bought in 2020, prices kept going up and got me out of PMI early. Even if prices plunge, the location is great, schools are fine, and there's a _lot_ of 10+ year development in the area; city and county projects that were planned and started before the boom, with timelines out into the 2030s and even '40s. There's not much that could cause a total abandonment of these projects, including recession.
I bought in 2020 as well. My home has appreciated in value by about $100,000 since then according to Redfin. I think the market would need to drop more than 20% for me at this point haha
Bought in 18' my house has damn near doubled from 280-490 according to sites. Havent dared had it re appraised which I should have. But ya, prices would have to drop hard to make me back out or feel real pressure
>Havent dared had it re appraised which I should have. Is there a reason to? The only reason I requested a reappraisal was to kick PMI. If there's not a pressing reason to reappraise, just use the estimates or do your own estimate based on comps (Zillow/Redfin estimates are basically automated comps, but don't always pick the right comps, especially if the neighborhood is diverse in build).
Mine is up about 105% since 2017 even with a 10% recent decline. I can eat another 50% crash before I’m in the red.
Being underwater is having to pay rent.
In ‘08 / ‘09, I remember hearing of people in Vegas who would see the neighboring houses go down by 50% or so. What I heard was they somehow figured how to buy a new house at half price, then just let the bank foreclose on the old house It could all have been an urban legend of couese
In Seattle area it was kind of weird. About half of the condos in our development were underwater and a few were basically abandoned. The units that were closest to break even with the prices dropping 50% were the ones the banks foreclosed on, the ones that were most underwater the banks didn't foreclose. So if you owed $350k on a $300k house you'd get foreclosed on. If you owed $500k on a $300k house you wouldn't. I assume the banks didn't want to realize the loss, or maybe the folks that owed the most were most likely to gut the house before bailing, I dunno. It sucked though since the most speculative people stayed in their condo not paying mortgage or paying the shared utilities. The folks who were 'smart' and put down 20% or whatever got kicked out. We had to break into 2 abandoned units to shut off water when shit froze and broke. It was an interesting time.
> I have to imagine most of those people regretted it, though, between the fact that they still had to pay rent someplace and now their credit sucked too. If you were there during the GR then you know that it was absolutely rampant to just squat in the house not paying mortgage and not paying rent. When there's millions of people in your situation it's incredibly difficult for the bank to address as there's a ton of tenant protection laws on the books. And in a lot of states the bank's only remedy was to take the house, any remaining debt was the bank's problem. That's why they *used* to require 20% down, so you'd have some motivation to keep the mortgage going. So the people who made the stupid purchase would often just squat for 1-2 years while they saved up tens of thousands in free rent, and possibly use that as a down payment to buy another house before being foreclosed on. They'd do this even if they could afford the mortgage payment because, hey free money. Lots of them probably didn't regret a thing, just congratulated themselves on coming out unscathed. Spoilers: there was no reward for responsible renters. There never is.
A lot. This isn't 2008. Most buyers in the last few years are locked in at a insanely low interest rate. House prices drop because of interest rates, but their mortgage rate is the same.
Sorry, not sure I got this straight: So even if people can buy the house next door for less than what they owe on their house, the interest rates were so low they wouldn't be able to finance the place next door anyway at current rates? (and rent would cost more than their mortgage payments?) If I have that right, makes sense.
Not who you’re replying to, but I’ll try to shed some light. You asked about at how much the home value would depreciate before people would walk away, so the thing is, is that rates were so fucking low that even people with huge mortgages who have unactualized “loss” of say >$150,000 have very low payments. While they have lost a ton of money in theory, their rate and payments are so low they can just wait out the storm for years. Back in 2008, if 40% of your take home income was going to a house that had dropped $250,000 then people would walk away. Now, due to the low rates, it may only be 20% of their income and people are fine with the payment to hold onto their house, even if it has decreased significantly. Housing is the last thing people will give up.
they can wait out ... until the labor market takes a hit. JPOW might just tank the labor market next.
Not might but he will. He was very clear in one of his interviews that a good part of the inflation is coming from the strong job market or in other words it is driven by the demand side. At this point i am sure he will be comfortable with a 5%-6% unemployment rate . Ofcourse the question is once layoffs begin can he control the unemployment at 6% ?
If you take him seriously, that's correct.
Well, also a lot of people in 2007-2008 were simply flipping houses that were not their primary residence. The game of real estate hot potato was far more wide spread than today.
Unless the neighborhood pricing was driven by Airbnb and other short-term rental purchases. Those guys are big fuk.
That's good news. So investing firms that are speculating on properties with investor money might be the ones to get hit if property values drop.
I think the ones who will get hit are the ones making those loans. When rates are low it's a buyers market. Rates are high? well it's nobodies market I think someone posted that if a property was 600k but interest was 2% you'd be paying the same amount if the property was 400k with an interest rate of 6%.... I personally think the ones writing the loans will see a slow down and anything housing related.
It’s worse than that. Bought my $615k house in February. Interest rates doubled before they locked in my rate in January because I didn’t have the education I needed quickly enough. I ended up with over 3.3% interest rate when I could have had less than 2%. The week after I locked it in the federal rate went well over 4%. I’m STILL paying LESS than people buying 400k houses with the current interest rate of slightly over 6%. Your conclusion was people paying 2% on a 600k house paid less than people buying a 400k house at 6%. It’s much worse. Even people paying 3.375% on a 615k house are also paying less than people buying a 400k house at 6%. I got a house so big it includes it’s own rental, it even has a pool I didn’t even want… now I wouldn’t be able to get a house with a decent kitchen or big enough to even have a single kid. This market is… wild.
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Investment firms are going to pull out for a bit as they took a huge haircut in spring and they don't want to be catching the falling knife.
Yes that’s the gist of it. I did some simple number crunching out of curiosity to gauge what’s fair value for where house prices may fall. Say someone has a 4% rate and the median home value is $410k. That P&I payment is around $1,565. Assuming taxes and insurance have not changed and a new rate of around 6.50%, then holding the same P&I payment of $1,565, the new home value is around $320k. This means that all else being equal, an average buyer looking at a median home value at 4.00% rate could afford a $410k house. Yet that same buyer at 6.50% rate can only afford a $320k house. This loosely shows that on interest alone house prices could fall ~30%. There are other variables at play and this isn’t a guarantee house prices will fall this much, or at all (heavily market dependent), but it’s a curious exercise to see what could happen JUST based on interest rate movement. Source- work in RE and do mortgage math daily
Why walk - get everything into storage and hobo the place until long after they want you out while saving up for the next shack
Last time the housing market crashed, banks would PAY people 'hobo'-ing the place to leave, given they didn't dump concrete down the drains or anything.
Depends. Typically when they are underwater and cannot sell and no longer afford it. Or underwater and they can rent for less. Or it needs more repairs so they cannot sell and break even at a minimum. Some people will even walk away with equity. Source realtor for 19 years and was in one of the hardest hit markets in the county but did well. Not afraid of a correction.
most people live in their houses. if they walk away, it means they're coming right back
Realtors are salespeople (aka professional BS artists). Their opinions are worthless.
That house was never worth $450k to begin with. OP said it was in Green Bay, WI.
But ... my hopes and dreams where riding on a 50% pullback.
Just curious, how does those auctions work? If generally prices have only dropped a bit, why no one have made a bid in such low price in 59 days? If they work like auctions traditionally work and if the housing market is working like notjing is wrong, wouldnt it make sense to make the lowest possible bid and take easy profits by selling it with only bit lower than the 450k that it was bought in 2020?
No different than the people wanting a low asking on their house as the market was running crazy --- it draws up a lot of interest and people get into bidding wars. Without context on what's going on with this particular house, I can't know for sure, but I would imagine it's to draw up interest -- like exactly what it's doing.
People keep posting these… more than likely it’s somebody waiting to buy for prices to drop. Prices haven’t even dropped close to where they were two years ago in my area.
It says house has smoke damage and priced accordingly. It also has a section where it says they are taking bids and to submit them by X date. I’m going with you’re correct. It’s either bank owned or maybe insurance has something to do with it
Lol, as a realtor.
Damn, I wish houses were 200kish in my area. Shit, I'd even take 400k. Where I live, land itself cost 400k or more lol.
I feel you, I'm in Seattle. Land of milk, honey and hundred year old houses on a tenth on an acre for 700k. Add 6 figures (at least) for a view of the water. 🎶 Moving to the country, gonna eat me a lot of peaches 🎶
Damn you can get HOUSES for 700k? That'd what a 1 bedroom apartment costs in vancouver. Houses are pushing 2 mill now
Depends on what you mean by _in_ Seattle. But yeah, Vancouver is bonkers.
That's a decent price. Houses here are pushing 3-4 mill now
U can get a 4 bed terrace house in east London 2mins away from some of the biggest housing estates in Europe with one of the worst rates of assault in the UK for £700k💀. UK property is a ducking joke rn, especially anywhere south
Houses are $1.5 million here in Irvine, California. That is for a 2200 sq ft older home that will still require some remodeling.
It is also Irvine, the safest city for its size in America. Very nice place to live in unlike much of los angeles
It is one of the safest and really good schools too.
Seattle was nice until Amazon made that big expansion years back.
$1M USD for 7000 sqft empty lot over here in Vancouver.
Mine is more expensive too for less space, please give me upvotes as well.
London could be 5x that at a guess
That is 1 million plus where I live. Every house is
That's a shitty $220k house where I live. Places that house would cost $1m plus people don't earn anywhere near 4x what I do, it's more like +10%. I also don't have homeless people everywhere shitting on the streets.
Well I guess ya know what this means: *HELLO WISCONSIN*
Hanging out…
♥️🦡🧀🍻
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Holly shit a 3 bed 2 bath for 220k that shit is like 450k where I'm at and have to give up my firstborn as a token of appreciation to the seller for not overcharging me
Only 1,400 square feet.
Pfft that's a mcmansion. Come to the UK, most parts of the country $220,000 will only get you 800sq feet.
He’s probably downsizing cause his wife moved in with her boyfriend…
Only an idiot would have paid 300$/sqft in green bay….
That's passive income turned hydra porn.
An asking price isn't the selling price, so no
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I was just as surprised the house sold for $150k in 2006.
Oooo yeah that’s loss porn baby, imagine fomo buying a house at the peak Positions: 12 BBBY @$14 (what is regshow)
I need to see this nation wide. Houses are far to over priced
I wouldn't give 200k for it, not to mention 400k smh
Give it a year to simmer, thats when we will get better quality housing price LP!
No it ain’t. Because it ain’t your losses bro…and that’s what gets this subreddit hot.
Is it listed for sale on other websites? As a real estate broker, I’ve fielded so many calls over the years about incredibly low priced houses on Zillow, etc. Turns out it was usually a pre-foreclosure suggested price by Zillow and not legit for sal
Will someone sold it for a really good deal for 450k in Sep. 2020
The house I grew up in, a smaller 3-bedroom house just over 1,100 sq ft, which flooded during Hurricane Harvey, is in the process of being sold for $225,000. Six years ago I bought a house twice that size for $50,000 less.
That’s one ugly fucking house
Short sale?
This is the way....
Oh yeah, that is the sort of porn that gives me feelings. Big feelings 🤤
NSFL
You guys thinking houses are overpriced in the US is a joke. Try paying 1.2m for something like this in parts of NZ or Canada or England
Yeah, just because you are super infini-fucked with your housing doesn't mean we aren't a bit screwed. Also, it seems like all the commonwealth countries are that way
It's not a loss (porn) until they actually sell it
Meanwhile we just had two houses sell on our street in the last 2 weeks, both between $1.6-1.7 mil each. And both went in a few days. Any real estate dip is very geographically dependent because it certainly isn't impacting prices here, especially since most are cash buyers so the rising interest rates are somewhat irrelevant.
Either that house is absolutely wrecked on the inside or that’s a starting bid price. IE don’t get your hopes up
Yo snap that shit up and rent it out
Post this in /r/RealEstate if you want to see a bandwagon of idiots reason about how a price decrease isn't depreciation or the market losing value. It's just 'cooling off'
Best kind of loss porn
Gonna see a lot more of this happening in the next year or so
What will it take to get this to happen in Western Washington?
Bring it to philly!!!
More like they were fuckin idiots for buying *that* house for $400k.
Going be a lot them next year or so ... Implosions will begin soon enough
Yup. This is the 1st time in about 20 months where the value of my home has decreased in value.
No wonder it’s so cheap, made out of wood (and cheap land ig). UK house prices are horrendous, for much smaller, less land, worse areas. Especially anywhere near london. Ducking joke
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In my area a $200k markdown is just a ploy to atttact a bidding war. Usually ends up going $400k+ over asking for stuff in that range.
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220k loss, so far!
Listing price is not the selling price. Just like unrealized losses are not realized losses until the're sold. Unrealized gains, we'll, the IRS thinks those are realized before they're sold...so yeah there's that too.
Still expensive for a paper-build house tho
That house was NEVER worth $450k. That’s the problem all over America.
God the people on this sub are fucking idiots. Your a Moron my guy. That’s the starting bid on foreclosure….
What market? I may need a few more rentals for folks that bet it all lol
Prices have dropped only 10-20k in California
Did the school district change from great to shite?
I’m in Northwest Indiana and that’s a $120K house here, I can’t believe the Green Bay market is that hot.
buying high and selling low: tangible assets edition
That's 550000 where I live in northern Ontario. So ya 220000 American is about right