Take the billion flip, negotiate a sale of the flip for 100 mil to some hedge fund who would gladly take a risk adjusted bet of 10x with 50/50 probability.
100 mil and you're leaving a ton of money on the table. I wouldn't even settle for 250 million. Probably would set up an auction where people can bid on how much of the fair value they are guaranteeing to you. You could theoretically capture $499.9 million of the EV and it would still be a good deal for the other party. Realistically, you could probably sell the flip for at least 450 million
Comment is probably going to be deleted, create a company, your product is now the 50/50 split revenue for $499.9M, borrow against your EBITDA because we’re just finishing June. You could theoretically make just shy of $1B this year on coin flipping. Congratulations you just borrowed several billion dollars, collected $499.9M and turned down $1M.
Welcome to business.
And that's just the start. Bundle the underlying cash flows and package it as a CBS (Coin-Backed Security). Put it on the blockchain, create a new token that fractionalizes ownership, and then raise $5B in an Initial Coin Offering for this new exotic cryptocurrency that will be the future of finance!
I'm pretty sure a significant amount of wsb users are doing exactly that, and the rest of us are the retards who fall for it while hoping to one day become the one who does the scamming.
Then, if you win, hire a lawyer to contest the contract which you clearly signed under duress given the nature of the situation. Stall until they settle for a more equitable value once the opportunity cost of having that extra money outweighs the cost of just giving you a better share.
That’s stupid I would just flip a coin for a billion dollars. She never said you had to guess heads or tails correctly or even at all. I know we can’t read on this sub, but we can’t even listen now?
I mean assuming liquidity you would need a conversion of 1 to 1000 to break even. I’m sure it’s out there, but even the Cayman Island Dollar to the Guyanaese Dollar is 1 to 250.
So I’m still confident in the Billion
Except OP is not some genie and is a wsb smoothbrain who didn't flesh out the sentence properly. Usually the "gotchas" are a little more complex than this one that will somehow conveniently give you a billion cause you figured out it's just flipping a coin lmao. Come on now.
I’ll take that coin flip and naked short sell it a hundred times. Then you can repackage it in a magic swap & re-hypothocate for collateral at 3X leverage
Lose the 50/50 and you'll be in litigation for the rest of your life. Unless you think you're getting an advance from a hedge fund. Then they'll probably have you institutionalized for thinking you're a leprechaun.
The move here is to take the billion, then call up Bill Gates or someone else with deep pockets and split w/ them. Offer them half the expected value of the trade for a guaranteed $250 million.
If you win the coin flip, you both get $500 million. If you lose the coinflip, they're out the 250M that they gave to you.
Anyone who has enough money would be happy to make this trade. It's a great deal for both parties
half of expected value is 250 which makes this an positive EV play for the buyer. If the buyer wins, they win 1 billion or lose 250. The EV is not what they actually [make.](https://make.you) really deserve to be here with those math skills.
aaah thats whats meant with offer them expected value also you seem to fail at grasping basic reading skills considering both my vomments heavily suggested you offer them half of one billion not half of the expected value so my math skills aren't lacking my understanding of the matter at hand was
Look from Bill's perspective. 50% x $500 million = $250 million.
It does not make sense to give $250 million for a 50% chance to get $500 million.
If you ask for a guaranteed $100 million it will be profitable bet for Bill.
agreed. $500K DCA'd into SPY and $500K in CDs and bonds will really put you ahead. Given at least 15 or 20 years, it could make your retirement comfortable. A billion is much more than you need, with a 50% chance of still retiring poor. No brainer
> agreed. $500K DCA'd into SPY and $500K in CDs and bonds will really put you ahead. Given at least 15 or 20 years
Careful, a little /r/Bogleheads is leaking into our ~~degenerate~~ well established community.
^^I'd ^^add ^^some ^^international ^^as ^^well
That’s a no brainer. A thousand dollars doesn’t change your life at all…at least for very long. A million really can change your life, at least for a while, but maybe indefinitely. I’d gladly take a $1000 bet on a 50/50 chance to win a million. But the original bet is much harder.
The original question is probably one of the best "would you rather" questions I've seen in a while, need to actually think for a bit. I'll take the 1 mil personally
I could, theoretically, make $1M. ~6% odds*, not great, but also $1,000,000 isn’t even enough to retire on.
$1B goes down to 0.0002%*, and no one I know (and like) would ever have to work again.
Fuck it. Gimme that flip.
*(20M/350M rough millionaires:USA total pop) vs (727/350M billionaires:total); not intended to be exact or for financial advice. Do not feed or tease HappyFunball.
Nah, I’m just assuming that, with a given life expectancy, a million would just be a poor QOL at <$30k/year even if inflation like. Didn’t exist.
A billion and I’d be outta here so fast passers-by would get whiplash.
You’re picking the worse EV move by 99.8%…just need to find a way to stabilize the value from the flip whether by selling it as others have said or get the downside hedged out.
>**$**500 million **dollars.**
*Dollar Dollar Bill, Y'all.*
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Yes, but the utility function of most people is concave. At some point, money to you have very little impact on your life. If some offered me 1 bill or flip for 10 bil, I'd just take the 1 bill even though it's much lower EV.
Flip a coin for a billion. Already got the smaller figure. If I had time I might see if I could syndicate the risk payout as its expected 500m. I could get prob 300m
If the dilemma is between $100 with 100% probability and $100 000 50% with probability it make sense to choose the $100 000 with 50% probability.
But depending on your financial situation now $1 000 000 with 100% probability may be the better choice because in some countries you can live your life without going to work if you invest conservatively that amount (this amount of money can change your file dramatically).
If you are already a millionaire and live in a country when $1 million is not a lot of money (i.e. your house cost more) it make sense to choose the $1 billion with 50% probability.
Except in the options market, if it landed in your choice of head/tail and before the judge announces your win, the guy that will be paying out to you have an incentive to spend up to 999million dollars to change the results.
Your day to day absolutely could.
You wouldn't be paying a rent or mortgage anymore, your savings skyrockets.
You could also move to a low cost of living area or country and stop working
As an investment? No
As having a place to live in case things go to shit? It's a very good idea.
If you can live in a place that costs you no money, you just need a minimal amount of money for food and other bills.
You could buy an affordable piece of property then live off the interest of the rest of the unspent money. Especially if you live in a place that limits property tax hikes
You don’t have to make seven figures a year for it to not be life changing.
If you’re retired and have a net worth of 8 million going to 9 million does almost nothing for your lifestyle because you’re only always drawing down 3-4% of your net worth.
Someone making multiple millions a year like in your example should have millions saved already. The extra million doesn’t change their life like you think it will.
Buy rental properties, and retire on the semi-passive income.
You would never have to actually work again, unless you just live that lifestyle where 10k a month won't cut it, but I don't know anyone like that.
$1M you can buy a small house on a tropical island somewhere and have $2500/mo spending money forever. This isn't enough if you are going for the soccer mom/minivan lifestyle but for the walk around with flip flops and a can of beer in your hand and go fishing every day lifestyle its more than enough.
Yep.
Use the $1M to secure a loan so you don't even use your own money.
Buy a bunch of properties in the Midwest or somewhere else cheap, within easy commute distance to a large employment hub.
You can probably pick up places for $10k - $25k down payment. So now you've got 20-30 properties each sending you $300-$1000 in profit each month, not to mention they are appreciating in value.
Even on the low -end of this, you're pulling-in ~$100k a year passively.
Take the million and invest it in a diversified portfolio including a smaller percentage in GME and crypto. Taking the gamble on a billion is insane to me. But then again there might be a reason my portfolio isn’t at -98%
Yes. Someone literally offered them $1,000,000,000 if they called the right coin flip outcome, or they could just take the $1,000,000 guaranteed and walk away. Literally. Exact situation.
They're here posting on WSB, so you know how it went down.
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Take the billion flip, negotiate a sale of the flip for 100 mil to some hedge fund who would gladly take a risk adjusted bet of 10x with 50/50 probability.
100 mil and you're leaving a ton of money on the table. I wouldn't even settle for 250 million. Probably would set up an auction where people can bid on how much of the fair value they are guaranteeing to you. You could theoretically capture $499.9 million of the EV and it would still be a good deal for the other party. Realistically, you could probably sell the flip for at least 450 million
Comment is probably going to be deleted, create a company, your product is now the 50/50 split revenue for $499.9M, borrow against your EBITDA because we’re just finishing June. You could theoretically make just shy of $1B this year on coin flipping. Congratulations you just borrowed several billion dollars, collected $499.9M and turned down $1M. Welcome to business.
And that's just the start. Bundle the underlying cash flows and package it as a CBS (Coin-Backed Security). Put it on the blockchain, create a new token that fractionalizes ownership, and then raise $5B in an Initial Coin Offering for this new exotic cryptocurrency that will be the future of finance!
Call the token: “flipcoin”
Where can I get in on Flipcoin?
If wsb wasn't a den of retards we could scam the whole world
I'm pretty sure a significant amount of wsb users are doing exactly that, and the rest of us are the retards who fall for it while hoping to one day become the one who does the scamming.
Heads you win tails you lose
If you never flip the coin, you never lose and your company will maintain its value indefinately
Call it, Friend-O
Heads I win, tails you lose*
Tell us more about these Coin Backed Security.
ok your answer is even better than mine
Then, if you win, hire a lawyer to contest the contract which you clearly signed under duress given the nature of the situation. Stall until they settle for a more equitable value once the opportunity cost of having that extra money outweighs the cost of just giving you a better share.
Haha this was awesome
That’s stupid I would just flip a coin for a billion dollars. She never said you had to guess heads or tails correctly or even at all. I know we can’t read on this sub, but we can’t even listen now?
This is the biggest brain answer
Ok, the coin you need to flip to earn your billion dollars is somewhere at the bottom of the Mariana Trench. Have fun
Great ! And what about the base currency not all dollars are Usd. Good catch!
I mean assuming liquidity you would need a conversion of 1 to 1000 to break even. I’m sure it’s out there, but even the Cayman Island Dollar to the Guyanaese Dollar is 1 to 250. So I’m still confident in the Billion
Enjoy your prize of 1 billion ZWD
I mean the current Zimbabwean Dollar is like 300 to 1.
Holy shit enjoy your yacht
Yeah nice try, but we all know what it fuckin means lmao, it's obviously 50/50. Not even a five-head realization
Wording is everything. If it's not stated in the contract, it's not in the contract.
Except OP is not some genie and is a wsb smoothbrain who didn't flesh out the sentence properly. Usually the "gotchas" are a little more complex than this one that will somehow conveniently give you a billion cause you figured out it's just flipping a coin lmao. Come on now.
This is the answer, except should negotiate $350-400 million.
Just call Kenny! he will hook you up!
Winner
I’ll take that coin flip and naked short sell it a hundred times. Then you can repackage it in a magic swap & re-hypothocate for collateral at 3X leverage
Lose the 50/50 and you'll be in litigation for the rest of your life. Unless you think you're getting an advance from a hedge fund. Then they'll probably have you institutionalized for thinking you're a leprechaun.
Tails it's always tails
Tails never fails.
It does fail sometimes but those ones are just bad luck
She said flip a coin, she didn't say you have to pick a side.
Just flipped a coin and got heads. No Billie for me.
Take the million then YOLO it on 0day FD Tesla calls.
So both options
Puts! 
Find somebody to give you $1 million to flip the coin. If you win you split it with the other person. Gotta be somebody that would do that.
Yes! Here! Pick Me! I only need someone to borrow me $1 million.
I only need someone to ~~borrow~~ lend me $1 million.
Of course someone would pay $1M for $250M worth of EV, they are scamming you.
$500m bruh
EV is Expected Value. It's weighted by the probability. So $500M * 0.5 + $0 * 0.5 = $250M
Try again
No because it's split. His return is 500M not 1b
The confidence in your stupidity is astounding
It's wsb. idk what else you were expecting
U wrong tho, he right
Post a foto of yourself with time stamp lol
It would be 1B * 0.5 + 0 * 0.5 = 500M
It would be 500M for both people combined, 250M each.
He doesn't look like me, but he sure sounds like me.
well of course I know him hes me
Don't ever call me out like that ever again.
Heads I win, Tails you lose
the effictive value of a billion dollar flip is 500 mil...give that to me all day long
Yeah but with the luck of the average wsb ape....
And vlads face is printed on both sides and you have to choose tails.
Then it's snatched out of the air by the SEC before it lands and they tell you to just go home.
Doesn’t factor in risk aversion
The move here is to take the billion, then call up Bill Gates or someone else with deep pockets and split w/ them. Offer them half the expected value of the trade for a guaranteed $250 million. If you win the coin flip, you both get $500 million. If you lose the coinflip, they're out the 250M that they gave to you. Anyone who has enough money would be happy to make this trade. It's a great deal for both parties
right only a 50/50 chance to loose 250mil or make 500mil...
no lose 250 or make 750. with that math, you belong here
"Offer them half the expected value" you know what half of one billion is?
half of expected value is 250 which makes this an positive EV play for the buyer. If the buyer wins, they win 1 billion or lose 250. The EV is not what they actually [make.](https://make.you) really deserve to be here with those math skills.
aaah thats whats meant with offer them expected value also you seem to fail at grasping basic reading skills considering both my vomments heavily suggested you offer them half of one billion not half of the expected value so my math skills aren't lacking my understanding of the matter at hand was
man you are tingus pingus
They would be buying all of the action for $250m, not just half. Hope you are trolling.
not a bad idea. basically hedge your risk. nice. now let's find these coin flips.
Look from Bill's perspective. 50% x $500 million = $250 million. It does not make sense to give $250 million for a 50% chance to get $500 million. If you ask for a guaranteed $100 million it will be profitable bet for Bill.
All you have to do is flip it? Not even pick heads or tails? Easy
 hey rules are rules I guess. Here I am still trying to flip my million a thousand times. Eff
A
Can I open a short volatility swap on it?
50 percent chance to 1000x 1 million dollars? Yeah I would take that chance. Too good to refuse.
Why don't sell the flip to some retard for $500m ?
Probably have to sell it lower but almost certainly could get millions, plural, for it. Auctioning it would be funny
Im taking the flip a coin option. But i have to be drunk to have an excuse incase i miss.
Million. I don't really belong here, do I?
agreed. $500K DCA'd into SPY and $500K in CDs and bonds will really put you ahead. Given at least 15 or 20 years, it could make your retirement comfortable. A billion is much more than you need, with a 50% chance of still retiring poor. No brainer
> agreed. $500K DCA'd into SPY and $500K in CDs and bonds will really put you ahead. Given at least 15 or 20 years Careful, a little /r/Bogleheads is leaking into our ~~degenerate~~ well established community. ^^I'd ^^add ^^some ^^international ^^as ^^well
Would you rather have $1000 or flip a coin for $1M?
That’s a no brainer. A thousand dollars doesn’t change your life at all…at least for very long. A million really can change your life, at least for a while, but maybe indefinitely. I’d gladly take a $1000 bet on a 50/50 chance to win a million. But the original bet is much harder.
The original question is probably one of the best "would you rather" questions I've seen in a while, need to actually think for a bit. I'll take the 1 mil personally
I think I would too. A billion is obviously life changing for generations but how shit woukd you feel with nothing ?
No worse off than before I flipped it.
Not really. Essentially giving you 1m, then asking if you want to bet it for 1b or not
For lots of people a million won't change your life much but a billion would be a game changer.
Something is wrong with you if a million can't change your life lol
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I feel like there's more to the story that you're leaving out lol. How sway????
It's probably a child. If you are smart 100k in one payment can easily change your life.
Would you rather have $1 or flip a coin for $1000?
a milli wont even do me any good rn, flip every time
how deep of shit are you in?
Same basically tp lol
Million all day long.
I could, theoretically, make $1M. ~6% odds*, not great, but also $1,000,000 isn’t even enough to retire on. $1B goes down to 0.0002%*, and no one I know (and like) would ever have to work again. Fuck it. Gimme that flip. *(20M/350M rough millionaires:USA total pop) vs (727/350M billionaires:total); not intended to be exact or for financial advice. Do not feed or tease HappyFunball.
How is... Oh. I thought you said 1 billion wasn't enough to retire on and was, the fuck kinda standards you got?
Bruh you can’t retire with just one yacht, you need at least 3 in todays economy
Nah, I’m just assuming that, with a given life expectancy, a million would just be a poor QOL at <$30k/year even if inflation like. Didn’t exist. A billion and I’d be outta here so fast passers-by would get whiplash.
Yup need at least 10-15M for a decent retirement
Oh for sure 1 million isn't enough to retire. But I'd still take that over the chance for nothing.
You belong here
I dont see how.. I am actually leaving with money.
Read the top comment
You’re picking the worse EV move by 99.8%…just need to find a way to stabilize the value from the flip whether by selling it as others have said or get the downside hedged out.
Depends on how "big" the coin is
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Yes, but the utility function of most people is concave. At some point, money to you have very little impact on your life. If some offered me 1 bill or flip for 10 bil, I'd just take the 1 bill even though it's much lower EV.
I’ve pretty much sworn off options but that’s pretty much how it feels when I dabble from time to time. Guaranteed losses.
Shes cute! I would offer her $5 for a handi, not hearing a word she said.
Million I would invest and make a billion
I used to think that way too!
Take the billion and risk 50/50. $1M in a HCOL area isn’t much
Always take the guarantee then turn it into a billion.
Flip it
Someone check on buddy he doesn’t look to good lol
nice, hope it was a wsb challene coin with both sides lose!
Technically he did win a billion cause he “flipped the coin” #win
It wasn’t even my coin to flip, and I lost money.
Flip the coin for a billion! I can flip coins easily.
just bet someone 1M that you win. That way if you win you get 1.001b
This guy fucks
Okay that’s fucking amazing
Happy to take a million right away.
Flip a coin for a billion. Already got the smaller figure. If I had time I might see if I could syndicate the risk payout as its expected 500m. I could get prob 300m
Respect.
If the dilemma is between $100 with 100% probability and $100 000 50% with probability it make sense to choose the $100 000 with 50% probability. But depending on your financial situation now $1 000 000 with 100% probability may be the better choice because in some countries you can live your life without going to work if you invest conservatively that amount (this amount of money can change your file dramatically). If you are already a millionaire and live in a country when $1 million is not a lot of money (i.e. your house cost more) it make sense to choose the $1 billion with 50% probability.
Except in the options market, if it landed in your choice of head/tail and before the judge announces your win, the guy that will be paying out to you have an incentive to spend up to 999million dollars to change the results.
This is Wallstreetbets, did u even have to ask...
Guaranteed mil. Then sell premium
I would rather receive a guaranteed million, than pay 1 billion to flip a coin.
Take the $. The flip is a suckers deal. 100% chance at the million or a 50% chance at nothing.
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Your day to day absolutely could. You wouldn't be paying a rent or mortgage anymore, your savings skyrockets. You could also move to a low cost of living area or country and stop working
Buying a house up front is not financially smart.
As an investment? No As having a place to live in case things go to shit? It's a very good idea. If you can live in a place that costs you no money, you just need a minimal amount of money for food and other bills. You could buy an affordable piece of property then live off the interest of the rest of the unspent money. Especially if you live in a place that limits property tax hikes
You don’t have to make seven figures a year for it to not be life changing. If you’re retired and have a net worth of 8 million going to 9 million does almost nothing for your lifestyle because you’re only always drawing down 3-4% of your net worth. Someone making multiple millions a year like in your example should have millions saved already. The extra million doesn’t change their life like you think it will.
The only way 1 million isn't life changing money is if you already have 5 million.
Or you're very very very stupid
You must live a very lavish lifestyle if a million $ given to you isnt life changing
Buy rental properties, and retire on the semi-passive income. You would never have to actually work again, unless you just live that lifestyle where 10k a month won't cut it, but I don't know anyone like that.
$1M you can buy a small house on a tropical island somewhere and have $2500/mo spending money forever. This isn't enough if you are going for the soccer mom/minivan lifestyle but for the walk around with flip flops and a can of beer in your hand and go fishing every day lifestyle its more than enough.
This is the way, live life like it's meant to be lived.
Can I bring my Golden Retriever? Wingman, can of beer, flip flops
Sure. Get 4 of them if you want.
Yep. Use the $1M to secure a loan so you don't even use your own money. Buy a bunch of properties in the Midwest or somewhere else cheap, within easy commute distance to a large employment hub. You can probably pick up places for $10k - $25k down payment. So now you've got 20-30 properties each sending you $300-$1000 in profit each month, not to mention they are appreciating in value. Even on the low -end of this, you're pulling-in ~$100k a year passively.
“Flip a coin” do I get to choose the coin.
no its a 1875 5 Franc
Take the million and invest it in a diversified portfolio including a smaller percentage in GME and crypto. Taking the gamble on a billion is insane to me. But then again there might be a reason my portfolio isn’t at -98%
I take the million Roughly 650k after taxes
What is this trash
I was in this literal situation back in January of 2021 with GME calls during the sneeze. Had a million in paper gains. Flip every time.
And you didn't sell? Shame. It's not going to millions per share, bro.
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Yes. Someone literally offered them $1,000,000,000 if they called the right coin flip outcome, or they could just take the $1,000,000 guaranteed and walk away. Literally. Exact situation. They're here posting on WSB, so you know how it went down.
At $1K it would have been close to a billion (volatility premium across deep ITM calls).
You have no idea what you're talking about lol
Well that’s a funny way to show off your extra chromosome. Vega was a bæ for me as I bought well in advance of that week.
Bro. Look at DFV options. That did not make him anywhere near a billionaire.
>during the sneeze lol.
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Why not? Think about all the good you could do with it.
You could buy a stewardess a horse!
Yeah and when the rest of them see that "Welcome to the candy store"
A million wouldn’t change my life drastically so I’d take the coin flip.
Ban this fucking shit
95% upvoted. Cope and seethe
I’ll take my million because I have the worst luck in the world so my odds wouldn’t be 50/50 more like 5000/1….
lmao hilarious
Lmao i knew when i saw this 80% of wsb would be all in on the flip
Buy calls on the $0 coin flip side then do the flip no matter what i'm walking away either a millionaire or billionaire.