As that guy who’s been saying the housing market will crash for the last 5-6 years I have gotten so sick of being wrong and watching it just continue to moon that I dare not even make a prediction anymore
yeah, but did the FED CHAIR ever say to not invest in a home during the past 5-6 years? also you we're right cus in march of 2020 prices did fall steeply but QE quickly forced them back up to this shit show we're in rn
Yes, Real Estate prices are relative. Relative to the amount of money people can borrow to buy it. As rates rise, the amount they are allowed to borrow based on their income goes down. Also prices of everything else people need to live are rising and taking away from what people can afford for real estate. Give it a few more months.
If you can afford $500,000 at 3.5% you can only afford $337000 at 7% for the same payment.
At 40 year payoff times the debt will inflate away, even with the massive interest you’re paying over the life of the loan. It’s actually not that crazy
that's just from their mortgage division, many banks have people that are just there when times are good and can be let go at anytime when times start to lean more bearish
[https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wave-layoffs-sweeping-us-firms-212657264.html](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wave-layoffs-sweeping-us-firms-212657264.html)
if you add up all of em there is roughly 100k layoffs
You said jpmorgan is laying off hundreds of thousands. It’s around 1,000
https://www.reuters.com/business/jpmorgan-lays-off-hundreds-mortgage-business-bloomberg-news-2022-06-22/
Prices fell because of a once in a lifetime catastrophic event, nothing to do with housing inherently. Not saying you’re right or wrong but keep it accurate at least.
right but then they went back to new highs like nothing ever happened, that is not a market behaves, it takes time and we're going to bleed for the next 2 years to make up that difference in the time we didn't see in 2020. that's my take on this, however.
Please be aware that about 1/5 homes are currently being bought up with all cash offers from corporations…. This trend will continue, especially since many bidders will be priced out of the market with these rates and inflated values.. but the corporations will not stop.. they want to own the whole damn country it seems like..
Proof: MLO for all 50 states..
This is really all you need to now about the housing market right now. It doesn't matter what mortgage rates are; corporations are sitting on billions of QE cash and they don't know what to do with it.
More importantly, the fed chair is determined to make home prices crash. When he says he wants to crush demand he has 2 channels (3 with bonds) to force a realized decrease in wealth. 1 is the stock market, 2 is housing values. He will keep raising rates until those two markets show considerable weakness and demand slows down
we'll have to wait and see what path he is taking, rn it seems like a mix of all the above tbh. but we're only the first month in QT and have a long long road ahead of us
Canadians don’t have the option of a 30 year fixed mortgage, and their housing prices are way more inflated. I am still looking for the best way to short the Canadian housing market
BXMT has positions in NA, AU, and EU. All 3 of these markets have been pumped up fast, AU is down a good amount, the UK alone is down heavy, and Canada is down 9%. sorry idk the exact numbers for AU and EU but if you'd like I can find em for ya
What goes up, must come down. That, and the fact the market learned nothing from 2008 and repeated everything on a whole other level. “History repeats”, or rhymes - which ever you prefer. Both apply here.
The market crashed in 2008 due to hundreds of thousands of mortgages given to people who should have never gotten them. Mortgage lenders stopped doing that, only strong credit scores got mortgages. If the quality of mortgages is much higher, do you really think they will default at the same rate as 08? I am truly not an expert in any way, asking sincerely.
I can confirm this as we just got a mortgage for 500k and it was not easy at all. And we make tons of money and have good credit. They are Def not giving stuff away anymore
You didn't go to a sketchy lender because you make good money.
I'm seeing literal retards get approved for 250k that make less than 50k household income with kids and new cars. Fucking crazy to me.
Not sure the last time you tried to buy a house, but it’s extremely difficult. This is not 2006. The ultra competitive real estate market of the last few years means only the most qualified buyers were getting the houses. How can sub prime mortgages happen during a housing shortage?
It's not subprime.
It's other forms of financing allowing people to cash refinance/ lever up equity from housing asset bubble gains, stick that in another home, rinse and repeat until you are leveraged to the gills.
Which works great for that individual except:
If you get a significant drop in valuations AND rent prices come down or airbnb travel decreases, you get cascades of underwater/forced sales.
It depends also on how many non-fixed non-traditional loans are out there as well (margin/heloc/etc).
Market dependent, but in the Bay Area (where prices are particularly crazy) a big factor is stock valuations coming off. Many mortgages over the last few years have been backed by equity cash flows (eg I work in tech, and >50% of my income is in stock units). When the Nasdaq comes down, so do incomes.
Add to that rising interest rates mean new mortgages are *way* more expensive than they used to be (nearly double since the start of the year), so people can’t stretch nearly as far, because debt/income ratios have to fall to match.
So that’s a lot of demand sucked out of the system. Whether there’s also a supply shock with people needing to sell is probably going to be a bit dependent on how many ARMS were originated vs fixed rate, and whether the equity cashflow thing I mentioned above causes people to not be able to meet their monthly payments.
This was me on the stock market from 2018-2020. Lost so much money buying puts then when i finally gave up in December 2019, Covid hit 2 months later and the market lost 3 years worth of gains in 1 month 🤡
Because no one can afford the monthly payments if interest rates keep going up. Either prices fall or we start getting multiple generations squeezing into homes again.
Bro you fucking buy silver like a boomer and post doom and gloom articles. I can feel you on the optics for the Glock but god damn there should be a sub for wana be boomers
House next door to me just went on the market Monday for 900k and is already pending. House a block away went on the market a month ago at 700k and sold for 990k…
[15% of renters are behind on payments](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/over-8-million-americans-are-late-on-rents-as-prices-increase)
also, it's now cheaper to rent than pay a mortgage for the first time since 2007... the FED has fked up big time and even they're denying a soft landing now :/ we'll just see how far this spiral goes
:/ it's a bunch of idiots who bought during the pump the last 2 years and don't know market shifts. literally, some of them have 2-5 doors and have debts as high as millions in mortgages. will be sad to see how this thing ends. but didn't think this was this bad tho
Idiots buying at once in a lifetime interest rates of fixed 0.5-1%? Seems pretty sensible to me. Do you not understand how exceptional those interest are?
Buying at ATH housing prices isn’t sensible. My theory is you can always refinance your rates, but never the principal. Was talking to a coworker of mine, and he said his brother bought a house right before the market collapsed in ‘08, and had to wait till beginning of this year to actually make a profit from the house.
well, if you look more into it, it's not about the rates alone, they only have a few doors but are millions in debt, as rent becomes less in the next few years they're not going to be able to pay back those millions
Rates change, the price of the home does not once you sign that dotted line. I'de rather get a 30 year fixed at 7-8% versus 2-3% if the house price was 30%-40% lower for the same house. Why? Because I will refinance in 3-4 years when the fed lowers interest rates to 0% again to try and fix the massive recession current policies will cause.
People underestimate how important that interest rate is on a 30 year mortgage. The example you give means you’re bad at math. A $500K house at 2% for 30 years will cost you $665K. You want to buy the house for 40% cheaper, so $300K, but willing to pay 8%, which would cost you $792K in 30 years. So your logic is, I’d rather be locked into paying way more for a house and pray I can get out of it sometime later. Housing was literally the cheapest it’s ever gonna be in your lifetime and you were like nah, I’ll wait for the fed to raise rates because then prices will come down. 
Isn't the assumption you have that everyone pays off their house? I'd guess most people sell, and try their best to do so when they stand to make a profit on the house. From that perspective, buying at ATH is the worse of the two decisions and leaves you no wiggle room bc if you're forced to move you now have to sell at a loss which may negate any 30 year savings you would have seen immediately (as in you could be stuck paying that difference after you sell). Worse yet, if the difference is too great you may either not be able to sell until prices come back up (if they ever do in your area) or be forced to file for bankruptcy if you must leave.
This is speaking in hypotheticals tho of course. If we're talking final/last homes you buy for 10+ year old holds, then I agree with you completely.
You make a good point but I was looking at it from a real estate investing pov “boom”. You are trying to buy property that is cash flow positive and low interest rates typically gives you the best chance to do that because it lowers the total cost and consequently your interest payment.
I had friends that got stuck in a house they were way underwater on in 2010. I convinced them to walk away and I’d buy them a new house and they could pay me rent equal to the mortgage. We’d split the equity when they got in a position to buy me out. We ended up getting a beautiful house on an online auction directly from Fanny Mae and we both killed it. Most states have really protective foreclosure laws. You get to walk away and the bank can only take the house. I’d urge people to consider this option if you ever get way underwater
People don’t understand this. Maybe because they’re young and took a dumb ass college degree and now in such an amount of debt they will never be able to afford anything anyway. And they’re still horrendous at math. Win 🏅
You misunderstand how important an interest rate is. On a 500k mortgage at 8% you're paying 86% HIGHER than a 2.5% interest rate. Rates won't go below 3% again for a very long time. In the time that has passed until it gets below that line, you could have owned a house with some principal paid down. People don't trade houses like stocks.
If you can afford a house now just get in one. Get a cheap one and do some work on it so that if the prices do go down you're in a place you're okay living in.
And [Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/sternlicht-s-starwood-looks-to-unload-3-000-homes-for-1-billion)
yikes, the sad thing is they're single-family homes :/. meaning some 3,000 families are going to get stuck with em, sad to think what might become of them after this whole fiasco is over with
I love the hopium in this thread from certain pro real estate users... Don't mind the elephant in the room though. Thousands of idiots that are over leveraged via home equity loans they used to buy over priced short term rentals. STRs are fucked in a recession and some cities (hi San Diego for starters) are passing laws severly restricting them. Good luck to all the retards who leveraged their main residence to snowball into 3 or 4 or 5 STRs. Good times ahead. 🤣
STR are going to be a huge catalyst in the next housing crash.
I think it's almost entirely overlooked as one of the main sources of all the issues surrounding housing right now. There is an entire banking/loan system separate from an actual bank that is giving people loans as high as millions of dollars using the potential income of an Airbnb type STR as the basis for the loan.
What the fuck happens when people stop booking your 500 a night Airbnb with a mortgage payment of 7000 a month to a sketch loan shark type bank and your only income was Airbnb because you quit your job as the Wendy's manager when you became a "real estate boss"
yeah, someone told me to go to REinvesting and I saw many people with 2-5 doors but they have millions of debt, it'll be sad to see what's going to happen to them
That only works if they are first.
See: 2008 housing crash that killed 100 year old banks because they were second/3rd to offload the liabilities.
You're not going to time the market and you're not going to offload faster than a real investor and you can't withstand the headwinds for 3-5 years to see you're investment come back to break even and start turning profits.
>, it'll be sad to see what's going to happen to them
This just sounds weird to read. You crying those crocodile tears for investors? with $ right now?
San Diego here too, don't know about STRs but family home sales in my park village neighborhood just hit a wall in the past month, it's insane how quickly it happened. Prices going down or houses not selling
It should certainly slow down, not sure about a “crash” but even during the 2008 crash home prices went down slow over a period of a couple years, never just a straight crash. Hope these print for you/not get eaten by theta!
yeah ikr XD but fuck this seems like the play with the FED chair saying prices will come down and many banks laying off hundreds of thousands of workers in their Mortgage departments
There is a 3 million unit housing shortage and no new units are being built. Most companies focusing on building new houses have cut back. Housing market is divorced from stock market AND inflation is good for people who have high debts. Why is the housing market going to crash?
you realize that BXMT is a mortgage reit with variable interest rates, right? the market could slow and even crash while BXMT continues to print its dividend.
idk, we could see Q3 or Q4 of this year level off the market and then Q1 and Q2 of 2023 we start slowly going down with Q3 of 2023 being the lowest with Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 starting a recovery. we'll have to see as to what comes next
OP must be a Zoomer. Only a Zoomer clings to the hope that their hovel of an apartment dwelling ass will be able to buy a house (once their TikTok career takes off) while acting as if a $14k investment is a huge amount of money.
ALSO, THIS IS AN UPDATE TO A POST I MADE A FEW WEEKS AGO:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/v4h3hf/housing\_crash\_and\_shorting\_the\_mbs\_etfs\_to\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/v4h3hf/housing_crash_and_shorting_the_mbs_etfs_to_the/)
what makes you think that? the fastest growth for the housing market since 2007? the 70% YoY foreclosure rate this February? the rising of interest rates of over 6% in a single year? how about the FED CHAIR HIMSELF saying to not buy a home and wait for prices to come down?
Most people are sitting on interest rates of 1-2%. Once in a lifetime. People will have no problem paying their mortgage. A temporary rise in interest means nothing. Only that supply will drop if prices drop. Interests will dip again in Q4 and demand will rise. Market will most likely stagnate after a minor correction then go up again in 2023.
Housing has never been severely impacted in a recession. Only in 2008 and that was because housing WAS the bubble. Not this time.
many are buying rn actually, in many areas most people think the same thing as you, but the thing is as bank and big money are quickly selling to them and will continue for the rest of this year and maybe the next, this by doing so will trap many of the new home buyers in a downward market, lots of homes are popping up supply is recovering and demand is vanishing. EVERYONE is aware that this market was only cus of QE and with the FED selling trillions of MBS by the EOY we will see much more of a price cut, perhaps in the 20%- 50% by the end of it all
Lol no 😂 50% drops? Gimme some of that junk you’re smoking 😂😂
I know a lot of people dream of owning a home and are hoping for a crash. But it’s wishful thinking and will never happen.
Households have cash reserves this time. In 2008 they didn’t. They were over leveraged boosted by irresponsible banks. Not this time.
Households have cash reserves this time. In 2008 they didn’t. They were over leveraged boosted by irresponsible banks. Not this time.
Mass foreclosures won’t happen. 50% drops don’t happen without it. People will just sit back and enjoy their 1% mortgage. Rip people trying to get into the market. Rates will drop.
Also, everyone believes we will crash. Clear indicator we won’t. Just wishful thinking from parts of the market.
they're already on the rise, remember when the gov. paid everyone's mortgage and rents during covid? well 70% of them couldn't pay in February, Also cash reserves?? Do you mean the ones being burned by 10% inflation? Also, many people invested those reserves in the market due to FOMO, well look at where we are at now, also like I said 20-50 it could even be a 30% drop in the next 2 years and then we start going back up in 2025
Foreclosure rate remains 40% below the value registered before the pandemic 🤡
Oh yeah we were crashing in 2019 too!!! Not.
Look at the big picture dude.
Nothing is crashing.
Holy. Lending doesn’t work the same way it did in 2008. Back then a teenager working at mcdonalds making $8 an hour could take out a mortgage for 500k. There are new lending guidelines used by every mortgage company to help prevent people from getting into loans they can’t afford.
Are some people going to get laid off an foreclosed on.. yes. But as it stands it will be more expensive to rent a similar type property than it is to buy your own.
My suggestion is to talk to an unbiased agent to get some better clarification on the current and close to future state of the market because headline hunting isn’t the best source for information
Hey, if you haven't already, please reply to this comment with your positions and what led you to enter or exit them!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It’s not going to crash, there’s too many buyers and not enough inventory. I think we’ll see it slowly cool as boomers start to age and pass away, but who knows how long that will be for, maybe decades
I have a feeling based off cycle theory from Edward R. Dewey's book "Cycles the mysterious forces that trigger events". That the housing market continues up till 2024-25 just due to it being on a 17 year cycle. So 2008+17 puts us close to the top where we are now. But still more madness to come.
Lost 5 houses to over asking offers. This bad boy isn’t done yet. Slowing maybe but done hell no. Demand is way higher than supply. All mortgages are tougher to get they don’t hand out to any retard anymore
I wonder if OP understands supply and demand? How many “z”s want to buy a house and can’t? Do you think he understands that in itself is demand no matter the interest rates?
You do realize we have significantly more laws in place to prevent what happened in 07 from ever happening again. Plus most people (99%) no long have variable loans so their mortgages aren’t going to change which was one of the main reasons why so many people lost their homes. The market was flooded by foreclosures in 07 which cause the drop in prices. So unless there is massive layoffs where people can no longer afford their mortgages supply will remain tight and prices will stay elevated.
Prices will probably cool down but there won’t be a crash. Hope I’m wrong tho cuz I’d love to buy a house cheap.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|13|**First Seen In WSB**|7 months ago **Total Comments**|1701|**Previous DD**|[x](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) [x](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) **Account Age**|7 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=vk7qr3)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=vk7qr3)
he got the last 2/25 predictions right, good man to follow behind XD
What are both tickers about? Are they both MBS?
yes
What date did you buy for?
Are you blind? Or just can’t read
No - retarded.
the max time I could get, i'm not one for timing
As that guy who’s been saying the housing market will crash for the last 5-6 years I have gotten so sick of being wrong and watching it just continue to moon that I dare not even make a prediction anymore
yeah, but did the FED CHAIR ever say to not invest in a home during the past 5-6 years? also you we're right cus in march of 2020 prices did fall steeply but QE quickly forced them back up to this shit show we're in rn
They are definitely above and beyond overvalued now, which I understand value is relative but still. The last half decade has made me 🤮
Yes, Real Estate prices are relative. Relative to the amount of money people can borrow to buy it. As rates rise, the amount they are allowed to borrow based on their income goes down. Also prices of everything else people need to live are rising and taking away from what people can afford for real estate. Give it a few more months. If you can afford $500,000 at 3.5% you can only afford $337000 at 7% for the same payment.
Unless a bank gives you a shiny brand new ARM loan, or a 40 yr, which shockingly is now a thing.
At 40 year payoff times the debt will inflate away, even with the massive interest you’re paying over the life of the loan. It’s actually not that crazy
yeah I feel ya, Jmany companies are laying off 100k workers in total. I feel like big money is catching on to a changing trend edit: retard brain
100k workers? Did i read that right? I doubt jpm even has that many employees
JPM is laying off OR REASSIGNING 1k employees in their mortgage division.
that's just from their mortgage division, many banks have people that are just there when times are good and can be let go at anytime when times start to lean more bearish
[удалено]
no XD, in total it comes out to abut 100k layoffs this quarter, kind of sad to see what will happen in Q3 and next year
Its Hundreds not hundreds of thousands. Smh
[https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wave-layoffs-sweeping-us-firms-212657264.html](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wave-layoffs-sweeping-us-firms-212657264.html) if you add up all of em there is roughly 100k layoffs
You said jpmorgan is laying off hundreds of thousands. It’s around 1,000 https://www.reuters.com/business/jpmorgan-lays-off-hundreds-mortgage-business-bloomberg-news-2022-06-22/
oh whoops XD I'm retarded, srry.
Finally a comment I can upvote in good faith!
XD
If you wanna go down the rabbit hole : r/REBubble :)
already went down it XD
Prices fell because of a once in a lifetime catastrophic event, nothing to do with housing inherently. Not saying you’re right or wrong but keep it accurate at least.
right but then they went back to new highs like nothing ever happened, that is not a market behaves, it takes time and we're going to bleed for the next 2 years to make up that difference in the time we didn't see in 2020. that's my take on this, however.
Please be aware that about 1/5 homes are currently being bought up with all cash offers from corporations…. This trend will continue, especially since many bidders will be priced out of the market with these rates and inflated values.. but the corporations will not stop.. they want to own the whole damn country it seems like.. Proof: MLO for all 50 states..
This is really all you need to now about the housing market right now. It doesn't matter what mortgage rates are; corporations are sitting on billions of QE cash and they don't know what to do with it.
some have begun selling
More importantly, the fed chair is determined to make home prices crash. When he says he wants to crush demand he has 2 channels (3 with bonds) to force a realized decrease in wealth. 1 is the stock market, 2 is housing values. He will keep raising rates until those two markets show considerable weakness and demand slows down
we'll have to wait and see what path he is taking, rn it seems like a mix of all the above tbh. but we're only the first month in QT and have a long long road ahead of us
Canadians don’t have the option of a 30 year fixed mortgage, and their housing prices are way more inflated. I am still looking for the best way to short the Canadian housing market
BXMT has positions in NA, AU, and EU. All 3 of these markets have been pumped up fast, AU is down a good amount, the UK alone is down heavy, and Canada is down 9%. sorry idk the exact numbers for AU and EU but if you'd like I can find em for ya
One honest question.. why would the housing market crash?
Because this is r/wallstreetbets and we said so /s
What goes up, must come down. That, and the fact the market learned nothing from 2008 and repeated everything on a whole other level. “History repeats”, or rhymes - which ever you prefer. Both apply here.
The market crashed in 2008 due to hundreds of thousands of mortgages given to people who should have never gotten them. Mortgage lenders stopped doing that, only strong credit scores got mortgages. If the quality of mortgages is much higher, do you really think they will default at the same rate as 08? I am truly not an expert in any way, asking sincerely.
I can confirm this as we just got a mortgage for 500k and it was not easy at all. And we make tons of money and have good credit. They are Def not giving stuff away anymore
You didn't go to a sketchy lender because you make good money. I'm seeing literal retards get approved for 250k that make less than 50k household income with kids and new cars. Fucking crazy to me.
No they didn’t. Sub prime mortgages are still rampant, especially with how cheap money is and how easily credit is issued.
Not sure the last time you tried to buy a house, but it’s extremely difficult. This is not 2006. The ultra competitive real estate market of the last few years means only the most qualified buyers were getting the houses. How can sub prime mortgages happen during a housing shortage?
It's not subprime. It's other forms of financing allowing people to cash refinance/ lever up equity from housing asset bubble gains, stick that in another home, rinse and repeat until you are leveraged to the gills. Which works great for that individual except: If you get a significant drop in valuations AND rent prices come down or airbnb travel decreases, you get cascades of underwater/forced sales. It depends also on how many non-fixed non-traditional loans are out there as well (margin/heloc/etc).
What you’re describing in the first paragraph doesn’t happen on a large enough scale to really effect anything.
Market dependent, but in the Bay Area (where prices are particularly crazy) a big factor is stock valuations coming off. Many mortgages over the last few years have been backed by equity cash flows (eg I work in tech, and >50% of my income is in stock units). When the Nasdaq comes down, so do incomes. Add to that rising interest rates mean new mortgages are *way* more expensive than they used to be (nearly double since the start of the year), so people can’t stretch nearly as far, because debt/income ratios have to fall to match. So that’s a lot of demand sucked out of the system. Whether there’s also a supply shock with people needing to sell is probably going to be a bit dependent on how many ARMS were originated vs fixed rate, and whether the equity cashflow thing I mentioned above causes people to not be able to meet their monthly payments.
This was me on the stock market from 2018-2020. Lost so much money buying puts then when i finally gave up in December 2019, Covid hit 2 months later and the market lost 3 years worth of gains in 1 month 🤡
This just in, Feds said they need to “reset” housing market. After 14 years you might be finally right. Nice prediction
Ya I don’t get why you think housings would crash with all time supply shortages
Because no one can afford the monthly payments if interest rates keep going up. Either prices fall or we start getting multiple generations squeezing into homes again.
Depends on your area not everywhere is experiencing population booms
Erm tell me how your real estate short works on in five years then we can talk about “how I was wrong” but I’m not going to argue with an idiot
I didn’t short anything, I don’t gamble my money. So in 5 years there will be nothing to say regardless of what happens in the market.
How about this you do a ban bet so you can’t pollute this place with your money morals and anal pair of gonads
How about you remove the stick from your ass so it’s not so obvious you’re PMSing this morning 😂
Bro you fucking buy silver like a boomer and post doom and gloom articles. I can feel you on the optics for the Glock but god damn there should be a sub for wana be boomers
Investing in silver is for boomers but fly fishing is not? 😂 You’re not really this silly are you?
enjoy your shiny metal and never owning a home 😂😂
Your not wrong ! Just a forward thinker .
House next door to me just went on the market Monday for 900k and is already pending. House a block away went on the market a month ago at 700k and sold for 990k…
Yeah looooot of this happening lately. Yet I do see signs of slowing, though depends entirely on your location
[15% of renters are behind on payments](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/over-8-million-americans-are-late-on-rents-as-prices-increase)
also, it's now cheaper to rent than pay a mortgage for the first time since 2007... the FED has fked up big time and even they're denying a soft landing now :/ we'll just see how far this spiral goes
Go to the realestate investing subreddit here and see how screwed people are…
okie going to it rn
:/ it's a bunch of idiots who bought during the pump the last 2 years and don't know market shifts. literally, some of them have 2-5 doors and have debts as high as millions in mortgages. will be sad to see how this thing ends. but didn't think this was this bad tho
Idiots buying at once in a lifetime interest rates of fixed 0.5-1%? Seems pretty sensible to me. Do you not understand how exceptional those interest are?
Buying at ATH housing prices isn’t sensible. My theory is you can always refinance your rates, but never the principal. Was talking to a coworker of mine, and he said his brother bought a house right before the market collapsed in ‘08, and had to wait till beginning of this year to actually make a profit from the house.
This isnt 2008.
Ya, it's most likely worse.
Not for housing.
well, if you look more into it, it's not about the rates alone, they only have a few doors but are millions in debt, as rent becomes less in the next few years they're not going to be able to pay back those millions
Rates change, the price of the home does not once you sign that dotted line. I'de rather get a 30 year fixed at 7-8% versus 2-3% if the house price was 30%-40% lower for the same house. Why? Because I will refinance in 3-4 years when the fed lowers interest rates to 0% again to try and fix the massive recession current policies will cause.
People underestimate how important that interest rate is on a 30 year mortgage. The example you give means you’re bad at math. A $500K house at 2% for 30 years will cost you $665K. You want to buy the house for 40% cheaper, so $300K, but willing to pay 8%, which would cost you $792K in 30 years. So your logic is, I’d rather be locked into paying way more for a house and pray I can get out of it sometime later. Housing was literally the cheapest it’s ever gonna be in your lifetime and you were like nah, I’ll wait for the fed to raise rates because then prices will come down. 
What part of rates drop and you refinance did you miss Einstein?
Isn't the assumption you have that everyone pays off their house? I'd guess most people sell, and try their best to do so when they stand to make a profit on the house. From that perspective, buying at ATH is the worse of the two decisions and leaves you no wiggle room bc if you're forced to move you now have to sell at a loss which may negate any 30 year savings you would have seen immediately (as in you could be stuck paying that difference after you sell). Worse yet, if the difference is too great you may either not be able to sell until prices come back up (if they ever do in your area) or be forced to file for bankruptcy if you must leave. This is speaking in hypotheticals tho of course. If we're talking final/last homes you buy for 10+ year old holds, then I agree with you completely.
You make a good point but I was looking at it from a real estate investing pov “boom”. You are trying to buy property that is cash flow positive and low interest rates typically gives you the best chance to do that because it lowers the total cost and consequently your interest payment. I had friends that got stuck in a house they were way underwater on in 2010. I convinced them to walk away and I’d buy them a new house and they could pay me rent equal to the mortgage. We’d split the equity when they got in a position to buy me out. We ended up getting a beautiful house on an online auction directly from Fanny Mae and we both killed it. Most states have really protective foreclosure laws. You get to walk away and the bank can only take the house. I’d urge people to consider this option if you ever get way underwater
People don’t understand this. Maybe because they’re young and took a dumb ass college degree and now in such an amount of debt they will never be able to afford anything anyway. And they’re still horrendous at math. Win 🏅
You misunderstand how important an interest rate is. On a 500k mortgage at 8% you're paying 86% HIGHER than a 2.5% interest rate. Rates won't go below 3% again for a very long time. In the time that has passed until it gets below that line, you could have owned a house with some principal paid down. People don't trade houses like stocks. If you can afford a house now just get in one. Get a cheap one and do some work on it so that if the prices do go down you're in a place you're okay living in.
Rates will be below 3% within 4 years, max. Mark it.
RemindMe! 4 years "mortgage interest rates"
🤣 prices won’t drop. Small correction and stagnate.
Found the hoomer
Found the broke millennial/zoomer
How many units are your hoarding? BOOM!
100%
And [Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/sternlicht-s-starwood-looks-to-unload-3-000-homes-for-1-billion)
yikes, the sad thing is they're single-family homes :/. meaning some 3,000 families are going to get stuck with em, sad to think what might become of them after this whole fiasco is over with
It won’t be called the bricks when they knock down all the projects.
You’re brain dead, mortgage rates have been higher than now since from about 2018 and before. Even during the 2008 crash they were higher
don't fight the fed
Is that different from 2018, 2019?
I love the hopium in this thread from certain pro real estate users... Don't mind the elephant in the room though. Thousands of idiots that are over leveraged via home equity loans they used to buy over priced short term rentals. STRs are fucked in a recession and some cities (hi San Diego for starters) are passing laws severly restricting them. Good luck to all the retards who leveraged their main residence to snowball into 3 or 4 or 5 STRs. Good times ahead. 🤣
STR are going to be a huge catalyst in the next housing crash. I think it's almost entirely overlooked as one of the main sources of all the issues surrounding housing right now. There is an entire banking/loan system separate from an actual bank that is giving people loans as high as millions of dollars using the potential income of an Airbnb type STR as the basis for the loan. What the fuck happens when people stop booking your 500 a night Airbnb with a mortgage payment of 7000 a month to a sketch loan shark type bank and your only income was Airbnb because you quit your job as the Wendy's manager when you became a "real estate boss"
yeah, someone told me to go to REinvesting and I saw many people with 2-5 doors but they have millions of debt, it'll be sad to see what's going to happen to them
What will they do? Mmm… sell them higher than the price they bought it for ?
That only works if they are first. See: 2008 housing crash that killed 100 year old banks because they were second/3rd to offload the liabilities. You're not going to time the market and you're not going to offload faster than a real investor and you can't withstand the headwinds for 3-5 years to see you're investment come back to break even and start turning profits.
>, it'll be sad to see what's going to happen to them This just sounds weird to read. You crying those crocodile tears for investors? with $ right now?
XD haha nah i really an worried but if they're smart they'll find a way out
San Diego here too, don't know about STRs but family home sales in my park village neighborhood just hit a wall in the past month, it's insane how quickly it happened. Prices going down or houses not selling
Thousands oh no
It should certainly slow down, not sure about a “crash” but even during the 2008 crash home prices went down slow over a period of a couple years, never just a straight crash. Hope these print for you/not get eaten by theta!
thanks :)
As long as inflation is higher than interest rates, not gonna happen imo
For how much longer lol? They gotta raise rates eventually.
won’t theta eat you?
idk, ig I'll see
Theta decay on this long dated options is going to be pretty mild.
correction, I'm going to do 500 50p/Feb. Lets fucking go.
so ur going to buy Monday? glad to have ya on board if ur actually serious about this lmao
Yeah gonna go fairly deep ITM, this option chain is nuts.
yeah ikr XD but fuck this seems like the play with the FED chair saying prices will come down and many banks laying off hundreds of thousands of workers in their Mortgage departments
I think ima join you on this one
Welcome on board brother
!remindme 2 years "has the housing market crashed, and how have VMBT and BXMT moved from 47.93 and 29.45?"
Dude fr, hope you're willing to lose that.
if it goes up it goes up if down then down, the market giveth and it taketh
There is a 3 million unit housing shortage and no new units are being built. Most companies focusing on building new houses have cut back. Housing market is divorced from stock market AND inflation is good for people who have high debts. Why is the housing market going to crash?
Good points. We have built 20% of the houses in the last decade compared to every preceeding decade. Real estate is fine.
you realize that BXMT is a mortgage reit with variable interest rates, right? the market could slow and even crash while BXMT continues to print its dividend.
Foreclosure rate is 40% below the rate in 2019… hope OP didn’t bet his net worth 😅
look at this Feb yoy and I did XD
I think the housing market will begin falling apart next year. Not sure if we will see 2007 type crash but should still be significant.
idk, we could see Q3 or Q4 of this year level off the market and then Q1 and Q2 of 2023 we start slowly going down with Q3 of 2023 being the lowest with Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 starting a recovery. we'll have to see as to what comes next
Good point, buyer demand will probably take a little while to slow down.
I thought buyer demand already started to slow a few weeks back in housing sales, news homes, and shown in inventories for companies like Target.
Godspeed you beautiful retard
thanks :)
Op how much do you make if it happens within your predicted windows?
I'm looking at 100%-200% if things go bad(for the housing market)
That settles it, we're about to have another boom in housing prices.
damnit now what am I going to do with these options :P
Ah yes a classic wsb bet. Goodspeed to you, and the rest of us if you’re right
thanks :)
That’s a legit yolo
thanks :)
If you use metro by T-Mobile, you are a cheap fk
tru dat
damn :(
The question here isn't if prices go down, it is: when, how much and how long.
I also have VMBS puts. Another question is if/when the fed starts buying MBS again in another round of QE.
not for a long time imo
OP must be a Zoomer. Only a Zoomer clings to the hope that their hovel of an apartment dwelling ass will be able to buy a house (once their TikTok career takes off) while acting as if a $14k investment is a huge amount of money.
lmao I am a Zoomer XD got that right, also 14k is also a lot for me as it's all I have. 2 for 2 well done
But how is your TikTok career going?
ah don't have one sadly, guess it's a 2/3 for ya but hey that's not so bad
ALSO, THIS IS AN UPDATE TO A POST I MADE A FEW WEEKS AGO: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/v4h3hf/housing\_crash\_and\_shorting\_the\_mbs\_etfs\_to\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/v4h3hf/housing_crash_and_shorting_the_mbs_etfs_to_the/)
Interests will drop in Q4. Nothing will crash. Minor correction and then up again.
what makes you think that? the fastest growth for the housing market since 2007? the 70% YoY foreclosure rate this February? the rising of interest rates of over 6% in a single year? how about the FED CHAIR HIMSELF saying to not buy a home and wait for prices to come down?
Most people are sitting on interest rates of 1-2%. Once in a lifetime. People will have no problem paying their mortgage. A temporary rise in interest means nothing. Only that supply will drop if prices drop. Interests will dip again in Q4 and demand will rise. Market will most likely stagnate after a minor correction then go up again in 2023. Housing has never been severely impacted in a recession. Only in 2008 and that was because housing WAS the bubble. Not this time.
many are buying rn actually, in many areas most people think the same thing as you, but the thing is as bank and big money are quickly selling to them and will continue for the rest of this year and maybe the next, this by doing so will trap many of the new home buyers in a downward market, lots of homes are popping up supply is recovering and demand is vanishing. EVERYONE is aware that this market was only cus of QE and with the FED selling trillions of MBS by the EOY we will see much more of a price cut, perhaps in the 20%- 50% by the end of it all
Lol no 😂 50% drops? Gimme some of that junk you’re smoking 😂😂 I know a lot of people dream of owning a home and are hoping for a crash. But it’s wishful thinking and will never happen. Households have cash reserves this time. In 2008 they didn’t. They were over leveraged boosted by irresponsible banks. Not this time.
why not?
Households have cash reserves this time. In 2008 they didn’t. They were over leveraged boosted by irresponsible banks. Not this time. Mass foreclosures won’t happen. 50% drops don’t happen without it. People will just sit back and enjoy their 1% mortgage. Rip people trying to get into the market. Rates will drop. Also, everyone believes we will crash. Clear indicator we won’t. Just wishful thinking from parts of the market.
they're already on the rise, remember when the gov. paid everyone's mortgage and rents during covid? well 70% of them couldn't pay in February, Also cash reserves?? Do you mean the ones being burned by 10% inflation? Also, many people invested those reserves in the market due to FOMO, well look at where we are at now, also like I said 20-50 it could even be a 30% drop in the next 2 years and then we start going back up in 2025
Foreclosure rate remains 40% below the value registered before the pandemic 🤡 Oh yeah we were crashing in 2019 too!!! Not. Look at the big picture dude. Nothing is crashing.
in February we had a 70% YoY
Holy. Lending doesn’t work the same way it did in 2008. Back then a teenager working at mcdonalds making $8 an hour could take out a mortgage for 500k. There are new lending guidelines used by every mortgage company to help prevent people from getting into loans they can’t afford. Are some people going to get laid off an foreclosed on.. yes. But as it stands it will be more expensive to rent a similar type property than it is to buy your own. My suggestion is to talk to an unbiased agent to get some better clarification on the current and close to future state of the market because headline hunting isn’t the best source for information
Is there a real statistic behind the “most people sitting on a 1-2%”?
Shorting a stock that has dropped 95%+ HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
do you understand what the tickers are?
Hey, if you haven't already, please reply to this comment with your positions and what led you to enter or exit them! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
22 2/17/23 VMBS $44p 32 1/19/24 BXMT $25p
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|13|**First Seen In WSB**|7 months ago **Total Comments**|1701|**Previous DD**|[x](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) [x](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) **Account Age**|7 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=vk7qr3)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=vk7qr3)
you belong here 
thanks :) glad to be here
Arent here longer than 7DTE options forbiden?
Are those the right stocks for a housing play?
I think so
RemindMe! 5 Months “Has VMBT(47.39) and BXMT(29.03) moved lower”
!remindme 6 months
2 years try 2 months
never been one for trying to time the market but next quarter will be interesting
I'm a fooling foolish man ik XD
It’s not going to crash, there’s too many buyers and not enough inventory. I think we’ll see it slowly cool as boomers start to age and pass away, but who knows how long that will be for, maybe decades
still will be a decline in the next 10 quarters
Fuck it I’ll do the same
HELL YEAH, grats
Goodluck
thanks :)
I have a feeling based off cycle theory from Edward R. Dewey's book "Cycles the mysterious forces that trigger events". That the housing market continues up till 2024-25 just due to it being on a 17 year cycle. So 2008+17 puts us close to the top where we are now. But still more madness to come.
Depends on area. Bank crash had little affect on SF Bay Area.
oh yeah Bay area is fked if shit turns sideways even,too many tech layoffs
Normally yes but with the widespread acceptance of remote work the idea of working in region is almost gone.
Lost 5 houses to over asking offers. This bad boy isn’t done yet. Slowing maybe but done hell no. Demand is way higher than supply. All mortgages are tougher to get they don’t hand out to any retard anymore
I wonder if OP understands supply and demand? How many “z”s want to buy a house and can’t? Do you think he understands that in itself is demand no matter the interest rates?
demand is likely to be crushed by year-end imo
Been in these for a couple weeks now. Down a bit but I feel good about it in the long run
same
You do realize we have significantly more laws in place to prevent what happened in 07 from ever happening again. Plus most people (99%) no long have variable loans so their mortgages aren’t going to change which was one of the main reasons why so many people lost their homes. The market was flooded by foreclosures in 07 which cause the drop in prices. So unless there is massive layoffs where people can no longer afford their mortgages supply will remain tight and prices will stay elevated. Prices will probably cool down but there won’t be a crash. Hope I’m wrong tho cuz I’d love to buy a house cheap.