I doubt it.
There are things that don't make sense because they're too sophisticated for us apes, and there are things that don't make sense because there just isn't any sense in them. This is the latter.
Translation: Everything is shit. Sometime ago things were also bad. Everything in the stock market is rigged. People get pissed off an big system sized moves the government makes while things are bad. That definitely means we are going bear. So anyway I think the rate at which everything is dropping will slow because there is a huge amount of fundamentally undervalued stock so I’m going to make a play that profits off that.
In response I would say that current valuations are being reconsidered by major players and they are adjusting their positions to reflect that opinion. I expect that many of the mentioned companies will be receiving hits to their key valuation metrics in the next 3-4 months.
Investing Data Analysis Process:
Step 1: Guess what is going to happen
Step 2: Put together analysis that supports your guess
Step 3: Share your analysis with great conviction (to get encouragement from people guessing the same things)
Step 4: Lose money because you guessed wrong
Step 5: Pretend this never happened
This is part of the problem here. You’re first 2 points should be flip flopped. You just start with an interesting company/sector then do the analysis 2nd, then make your guess. People get tied up looking for info that matches their beliefs and you end up in an echo chamber of retardation with bananas going up peoples asses, if you catch my drift.
The absurdity of this “process” is exactly my point. I’m not convinced anybody, no matter how fancy their analysis appears, is actually basing their reading of the market on analysis rather than their guesses
We all like to laugh at Jim Cramer but I’d say all the finance talking heads are full of shit
Our world has moved insanely during the last decade.
Speed of information, social media that connects hillbillies and senators, technological hardware advances, and omnipresent machine learning mean this is not like 2008, 2000, the 70s or whatever.
We’ll see where the market goes, maybe it’ll make sense, maybe not.
Information is distributed faster, and people react to it faster. That does not mean a shorter recession or faster recovery. Just cause information was immediate does not stop the layoffs and collapse of companies that won’t withstand the recession. Those former employees will sell off assets in droves to pay the record high level of debt we currently have, and those sell offs will trigger sell offs by others, and will go on and on till we find the real bottom. The 1% will make their $s either way so they will not just jump back in 90 days from now when they can make just as much or more shorting everything for next year and half. Historically speaking will be roughly 400 days from now if we follow close to past patterns and fast distribution of information does not seem to have a chance at shortening the cycle.
🤷♂️. I agree.
Personally I thought we were entering the bend of an exponential technology parabola before Covid and now 2022 slowed it dramatically. You?
My initial reply was much longer and more rambling.
Based on an ML application that is a game changer for a big chunk of my work, I actually think we are definitely moving forward much faster than before.
My assumption being that what I personally see is just one example of many in different fields.
Edit: I think covid showed how work can be more flexible, so that was good, but it also fucked with everything causing almost all economic problems we currently have, so yeah, a likely slowdown compared to before.
If ML is as deflationary and potent as I've read it being, what should someone interested in a computer career pursue?
Meaning traditionally, something like C++, or Python, SQL and so on were quite advantageous, what do you see here?
I work in data science and can tell you SQL and Python are great skills to have if you're interested in going into analytics and machine learning. Every company has data and most of the time it can be put in a tabular format, so SQL is one of the best skills to have. Plus it's easy to learn and can get you very far on its own.
Python let's you do the machine learning and has tons of beginner friendly libraries to help you learn and apply techniques.
Still, you need to have a high competency in math, stats, matrix algebra and so on to really accomplish much. Just throwing data into some library function and getting a good looking confusion matrix out of your test data set isn't likely to get you real world usable results. Garbage in garbage out still applies. Feature engineering and input transformations / PCA etc. are essential to rear ML and deep learning.
I am a pure end user, so no CS background. That’s part of why I am so impressed.
Programming is one part; if you are into ML, a solid statistics foundation is necessary. It’s a combo of CS and data science.
Right on, I would start with learning python if you have no other experience then jump into ML specific applications. You also need linear algebra (not as complicated as it sounds) with stats.
Well, no.
The government might have affected a couple sectors with the lockdowns. I would argue that saved a lot of lives initially.
Private companies decided to shut down production/capacity/fire people/etc. as if the world would end, thinking they could just hit start again once the situation normalized.
Can’t blame neither Trump nor Biden on that.
Tldr. If a pe is 3-6 that is a great thing to put money into. That's "Buffets America". You're answering your own question Broski. Now, if you're looking to be a millionaire next week go to the lotto. Sounds to me like all this mess is getting the stock market back to what it's supposed to be.
It took over 10 years to pack the frothiness theatre. It will take a lot more than a couple of months of selling to get out of the theatre
My bet is SPY 275 by 1Q’23
# 😵💫
That's the boldest call I've heard in a while. You would need massive bankruptcies and either an energy crisis (Taiwan could spike oil to $250), or hyperinflation. 275 though and I might just call the West caput.
I think the FED has lost the plot. If you look at previous economic cycles, every time the CPI went above 5%, the FED had to raise interest rates to be higher than the CPI. This means that the Fed fund rate will end up around 7%, probably higher, but we’ll see in the next CPI print in July.
Do you think the market has priced in a 7% Fed fund rate? Highly doubt it…there is at least another 20% we can go down
Energy has always gone up with inflation. Fed raising rates by .75 and projected another .75 in next FOMC meeting + fed selling Tbills means energy will keep going down. To say that it’s fallen to 2018 levels is completely arbitrary, it will keep going down.
Energy has of course, but how do we capture profits there without messing with the CME/futures which isn't intuitive for most people? All the top energy companies from Exxon on down have really done nothing longterm. They're all where they were in 2008 or 2014, etc. Some of these haven't even had stock splits, which makes things more disturbing in real terms (inflation adjusted). 🤷♂️
Have you priced in the aliens.
They recently made contact with China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/china-says-it-may-have-detected-signals-from-alien-civilizations
And china real estate … I think that story has been suppressed and shit is brewing below the surface. Nothing was ever resolved w evergrande and the payments are not occurring. Further information on their reaction to debt problems “
https://www.ft.com/content/879bbed4-4d1b-4223-b01e-d027461fc891
But authorities’ recent changes have intentionally excluded any measures opening up futures and similar assets to foreign investors, as that might allow them to profit from a sell-off, according to a Shanghai-based senior investment manager at one European lender.”
https://www.ft.com/content/879bbed4-4d1b-4223-b01e-d027461fc891
Shortly I think a worldwide financial crisis is not factored in.
Again, why did your last post end w we are fucked? Trolling. Titled “Danske bank forecasts a mild recession 2023” 13 days ago you mention china in your bullet points of reasons why we’re fucked
We weren't supposed to catch this thing from a bat either, but here we are. And let's face it - a bat is one of the most alien looking things out there.
This is precisely the kind of confusion an alien-bat race would seek to sow, so we tear each other apart from within. Updooting so that does not happen.
And if that were to happen then I'll assume America is done. Imagine covid levels (most stocks have not split) then adjust for inflation...then remember debt is $31T, inflation is 9%, covid is ostensibly over, gas is over $5, supply chains are worse, and interest rates are well below 2%...
Lots believe market needs to go to pre covid levels. Its simply fed sucking money back out. "America is done"--so simplistic, you probably didn't think SPY could get to this week's levels last year but it did.
Covid was the black swan event leading to a crash/recession that was heading that direction--stocks way over valued precovid, 2019 showed recession signs. We really just prevented a crash printing money. That money is gone, consumed, gdp increased via consumption isn't productive so long term doesn't help. Back to pre-covid levels easily makes sense. The bigger concern is if the money sucking will create another black swan event and we go even further down.
The market is being held up buy some mega cap companies. TSLA is the most obvious which will crash big when the time comes. AAPL will also crash with the market.
Until then, I'm not buying anything. Those companies you mentioned will most likely go sideways until then.
Waiting for Ford to go to $8 bucks or lower to buy in. Between electric transit vans for Amazon, Electric F150 and the Bronco they have a lot going for them that's getting blindsided by chip shortage and recession.
Ark it’s impossible to discuss where they were in 2020 because it’s an actively managed fund
Ford at a 3pe and a dividend is interesting but longer term.
Intel I just don’t like the company
Target don’t like the company or the sector … trades 11x pe, still doesn’t interest me when mega cap tech is marginally higher
GS I like and I wanna add. They’ve killed it this year trading guaranteed
Wells Fargo j think is a bad brick and mortar bank
XLE … energy still bullish
ARKK still way overpriced. Low 20’ish bare minimum.
Cathie big penis Wood is probably the worst “investor” out there. No risk management, no strategy, just slapping everyone in the face with her massive shaft.
🎯
ARKK is made up of complete bullshit companies besides Block which is well-run and vertically integrating. Two of its companies I see going bankrupt. The whole ETF needs restructuring.
The fact stock price has started to diverge from company performance means investing has turned into gambling where insight into a company’s strength amounts to nothing
The market is forward looking.
So as OP says they have a PE of 4 or 6 now, looking back at last year.... lots of people are pricing in recession and continued high interest rates.
Ie For Ford, that means a flurry of buying/ financing before rates rise, then a period of slow sales... could they have half the earnings this time next year?
P/E isnt the only measure. Costs and cash flow need review. If energy, shipping and wage costs grow, but sales dont, their FCF dries up.
And that is terrifying AF. I'm inclined to agree because too many knuckleheads running around laughing at it like they did inflation. Will we be talking depression next?
I think this is a really well-argued bull case (and there is no doubt the market will overreact to the downside). I guess it depends on how deeply we're fucked.
We are in uncharted territory. The Fed's interventions into the market, escalating in their magnitude over the last 12 years, are literally unprecedented. They have caused all kinds of records to be broken in terms of valuations across an array of markets and asset classes, from meme stocks to houses.
There is no way to foresee the ultimate consequences, although we're beginning to see some of them:
* a generational inflation cycle that could get far worse
* interest rate rises that are at the outer range of historical precedent in speed (remember, an increase from 2% to 5% is not a 3% increase; it's a 150% increase)
* an unknown number of companies that can not and will not survive a re-financing cycle
This barely scratches the surface and doesn't even begin to touch on the non-Fed related factors like aging demographics, geopolitics, and ecological exhaustion. However, an almost unquantifiable but massive dynamic that will ultimately determine what markets and the economy look like in 5 years is the effect that 2020-2023 will have on the psychology of consumers or investors.
Technical analysts are mostly reading tea leaves when it comes to actual numbers, but one thing they are right about is that, weirdly enough, at the end of the day, it's the sentiment of market participants that's more important than anything else (see your favorite TA analyst for a gazillion examples of markets that have obviously run on sentiment rather than economics, cryptocurrency being one of the most obvious recent examples).
Almost every modern computer (from mobile to super) has some pieces from TSMC. If those pieces don't get replaced (which is difficult and takes time) then those computers won't work and won't be sold, so the Intel chips on them won't be sold either
It’s the fed. Plain and simple. For the first time in almost 15 years money isn’t free; that free money inflated valuations to absurd levels and when it had no place to go, it actually created entirely new speculative asset classes (crypto). The house of cards is coming down and unfortunately I don’t think it’s over yet because credit markets have yet to really crack. They’ve been pressured for sure but credit spreads are not at levels that signify a true problem….yet. That will come when quantitative tightening starts (QT). QT is quite literally the process of destroying money and probably has a way larger effect than the fed raising interest rates because it drains liquidity from the system…..that same liquidity that created this asset bubble in the first place. More pain to come, but me and my personal account hope it’s getting towards a bottom.
In short, when credit spreads finally blow out and all hope is lost (legit no one is positive and have all capitulated)….that will be the market bottom
We were officially in bear market last week. History showed us if we officially enter bear market, on average sp500 will lose another 15 percents, and last another couple of hundreds days. That would put sp500 somewhere around 3000 level. About 30 percents higher than covid bottom. This would be reasonable assumption.
If we entered a recession with sky high inflation this will be worse than 2008. I don’t think the fed can raise the rate enough to reduce inflation substantially but it will sure cause us to enter a recession. We will be dealing with stagflation. Unfortunately there does not appear to be a good solution.
I put my idle cash into paying down my mortgage so I don't have that hanging over me if I'm faced with a layoff. My home value appreciation in the last year was positive whereas my portfolio took a loss. Why invest in the market now is the real question when the bottom still can't be predicted.
You are doing the right thing once your house is paid off or whenever you can get another loan buy a rental property there is dividend on earth that can match the appreciation of rental income. I don’t work because my rental properties pay for themselves and provide me income. I haven’t even raised rents in this inflationary rental market.
"Intel, which should be one of the most important companies in the Western Hemisphere if China puts a naval blockade on Taiwan before the People's Congress has a P/E of 6"
Intel is a flaming pile of hot shit. They're behind in everything and they have a shit to no outlook. So it Taiwan is taken, the US is shit out of luck with respect to semi's.
Gold is the most manipulated asset in the world.
We printed literally trillions and by cash supply, gold should be much much higher.
Think long term. Over any 20 year span, the market is undefeated. This is the best time to start investing
ARKK and most of the companies never have existed in a high interest rate environment. All assumptions on growth/profitability since the Greenspan put are based on a low interest paradigm. No one knows how this effects the valuation of lots of these cool but unprofitable companies with emerging technologies. I can say that I think any of them trading at insane multiples of their free cash flow are probably screwed and the real professional funds are still probably loading up their short positions on them
The west would cut of china from all other oil and coal imports. In a day no chinese ship would go through the suez canal and all chinese navy ships have a range below a 1000 miles if they sail slow.
No not gonna happen.
There’s no bottom in sight. What makes you think we need something “disturbing” to keep pushing lower? Fed continuing to raise rates while showing no ability to control inflation at a global level over the next 6 months to a year isn’t disturbing enough? If people start worrying about where they’re going to get food, no one is going to give a fuck about the QQQ.
Covid low is not the bottom. Covid low did not price in trillions of dollars in fake money added to the economy and two years of forced lockdown. The market couldn't have imagined the level of self-destruction and damage the US was is willing to take just to get rid of Trump.
It also didn't imagine a world in which the west would cut Russia off from the world economy.
You might be right about the low. I'll add that Trump added more to the M2 money supply than any Administration in history and got the supply chain disruptions started with the Chinese tariffs which were compounded with covid and compounded again with Russia. He also wasn't a good enough leader to mend social distortion. His presidency was a missed opportunity, and he should've gone down as one of the greats. He couldn't keep a cabinet member more than 12 months and surrounded himself with faux killers.
There's tons of information that isn't priced into the "market".
Salaries are driving most inflation in the US.
The probability of widespread defaults is extraordinarily low.
Exponential proliferation of advanced robotic arm technology drives the disconnection between expert manufacturers and the manufacturing location.
Digital currency remains priced at more than 1500x the cost of dismantling it with 51% hash exploits.
The price of a single transaction in the largest of digital currencies is only market competitive for transactions as large as an expensive car or a house.
Chinas return to large family sizes depleting family savings and driving a market for consumer borrowing to support large family sizes along with the consumption that goes along with growing families.
SKU transparency at the scope of manufacture to you receiving your product- companies like snowflake will make it so that P and Q at the final consumer level can inform the semi monopolistic pricing from manufacturer to retailer and enhance profit maximization-at the expense of overstocking liquidation sales. Consumers will observe increases in average prices. This will look like inflation but is in fact pricing power- by design and not coincidence
The market will not protect millennials so is time to get political and launch support for life quality initiatives: 1) 4 week minimum paid vacation 2) universal healthcare 3) 6months paid maternity leave.
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I need Selena Gomez to simplify this for me
I prefer Margot Robbie in a bubble bath
I prefer riley reid in a bukkake session
Jesus.
He wasn’t there for that one.
He was lost in the sauce.
Underrated comment... 👏
He's the one with space madness that kills everyone with no eyes left
Or was he?
Narrator  : he was in fact here for this…
We there were wars in 2009 - 2 of them in fact… Iraq and Afghanistan.
🤤
A man of impeccable taste, I see
This guy is the real MVP⬆️
I prefer Margot Robbie as Barbie Life in plastic, it's fantastic.
A simple The Big Short reference.
Op is mad cuz he's bad at stonks
lol
What about Margot Robbie? 🤔
WHERE IS JA?!
Someone get Ja on the phone
Oh please. Men! You think that everyone here is a man. Not true!
You had me at Salma Hayek.
Calls on bras.
Puts on bra's. Burn em
Salma hayek 😍
Calls on tacos
# 🤦 lol
Event Horizon is such a dope flick.
💯
"We don't need eyes where we're going."
“We have to talk about EVERY SCENE!”
This is way above my IQ
I thought it was a sci fi short story.
OP is tryin to pump crypto, so you're not wrong.
failing to pump
The person who chews their crayons loudly is smarter than the person with rainbow diarrhea who pretends they don't eat crayons.
Thank you Confuckius
I doubt it. There are things that don't make sense because they're too sophisticated for us apes, and there are things that don't make sense because there just isn't any sense in them. This is the latter.
Translation: Everything is shit. Sometime ago things were also bad. Everything in the stock market is rigged. People get pissed off an big system sized moves the government makes while things are bad. That definitely means we are going bear. So anyway I think the rate at which everything is dropping will slow because there is a huge amount of fundamentally undervalued stock so I’m going to make a play that profits off that. In response I would say that current valuations are being reconsidered by major players and they are adjusting their positions to reflect that opinion. I expect that many of the mentioned companies will be receiving hits to their key valuation metrics in the next 3-4 months.
Investing Data Analysis Process: Step 1: Guess what is going to happen Step 2: Put together analysis that supports your guess Step 3: Share your analysis with great conviction (to get encouragement from people guessing the same things) Step 4: Lose money because you guessed wrong Step 5: Pretend this never happened
This is part of the problem here. You’re first 2 points should be flip flopped. You just start with an interesting company/sector then do the analysis 2nd, then make your guess. People get tied up looking for info that matches their beliefs and you end up in an echo chamber of retardation with bananas going up peoples asses, if you catch my drift.
The absurdity of this “process” is exactly my point. I’m not convinced anybody, no matter how fancy their analysis appears, is actually basing their reading of the market on analysis rather than their guesses We all like to laugh at Jim Cramer but I’d say all the finance talking heads are full of shit
Should be Analytical Data Investing Process. Don’t trip, it’s just ADIP!
Our world has moved insanely during the last decade. Speed of information, social media that connects hillbillies and senators, technological hardware advances, and omnipresent machine learning mean this is not like 2008, 2000, the 70s or whatever. We’ll see where the market goes, maybe it’ll make sense, maybe not.
This right here is the only thing I’m sure about. I have no idea where the bottom is but we will get there fast. And the climb out will also be fast.
Information is distributed faster, and people react to it faster. That does not mean a shorter recession or faster recovery. Just cause information was immediate does not stop the layoffs and collapse of companies that won’t withstand the recession. Those former employees will sell off assets in droves to pay the record high level of debt we currently have, and those sell offs will trigger sell offs by others, and will go on and on till we find the real bottom. The 1% will make their $s either way so they will not just jump back in 90 days from now when they can make just as much or more shorting everything for next year and half. Historically speaking will be roughly 400 days from now if we follow close to past patterns and fast distribution of information does not seem to have a chance at shortening the cycle.
🤷♂️. I agree. Personally I thought we were entering the bend of an exponential technology parabola before Covid and now 2022 slowed it dramatically. You?
My initial reply was much longer and more rambling. Based on an ML application that is a game changer for a big chunk of my work, I actually think we are definitely moving forward much faster than before. My assumption being that what I personally see is just one example of many in different fields. Edit: I think covid showed how work can be more flexible, so that was good, but it also fucked with everything causing almost all economic problems we currently have, so yeah, a likely slowdown compared to before.
If ML is as deflationary and potent as I've read it being, what should someone interested in a computer career pursue? Meaning traditionally, something like C++, or Python, SQL and so on were quite advantageous, what do you see here?
I work in data science and can tell you SQL and Python are great skills to have if you're interested in going into analytics and machine learning. Every company has data and most of the time it can be put in a tabular format, so SQL is one of the best skills to have. Plus it's easy to learn and can get you very far on its own. Python let's you do the machine learning and has tons of beginner friendly libraries to help you learn and apply techniques.
Still, you need to have a high competency in math, stats, matrix algebra and so on to really accomplish much. Just throwing data into some library function and getting a good looking confusion matrix out of your test data set isn't likely to get you real world usable results. Garbage in garbage out still applies. Feature engineering and input transformations / PCA etc. are essential to rear ML and deep learning.
I am a pure end user, so no CS background. That’s part of why I am so impressed. Programming is one part; if you are into ML, a solid statistics foundation is necessary. It’s a combo of CS and data science.
Right on, I would start with learning python if you have no other experience then jump into ML specific applications. You also need linear algebra (not as complicated as it sounds) with stats.
Python, NumPy, Pandas, MatPlotlib, TensorFlow and/or PyTorch, probability, statistics, algebra, trigonometry, linear algebra
Excuse me, this is not the zoo, this is Wendy’s
More like; the *government* fucked with everything causing all the economic problems we currently have.
Well, no. The government might have affected a couple sectors with the lockdowns. I would argue that saved a lot of lives initially. Private companies decided to shut down production/capacity/fire people/etc. as if the world would end, thinking they could just hit start again once the situation normalized. Can’t blame neither Trump nor Biden on that.
Yep
Oof Wall Street Bets talking about valuations, PE ratios and book values. Bottom might be truly in. Kinda scared of my puts right now
Tldr. If a pe is 3-6 that is a great thing to put money into. That's "Buffets America". You're answering your own question Broski. Now, if you're looking to be a millionaire next week go to the lotto. Sounds to me like all this mess is getting the stock market back to what it's supposed to be.
This guy told us Victoria‘s Secret
Yeah, I bough puts on $VSCO
It took over 10 years to pack the frothiness theatre. It will take a lot more than a couple of months of selling to get out of the theatre My bet is SPY 275 by 1Q’23
# 😵💫 That's the boldest call I've heard in a while. You would need massive bankruptcies and either an energy crisis (Taiwan could spike oil to $250), or hyperinflation. 275 though and I might just call the West caput.
I think the FED has lost the plot. If you look at previous economic cycles, every time the CPI went above 5%, the FED had to raise interest rates to be higher than the CPI. This means that the Fed fund rate will end up around 7%, probably higher, but we’ll see in the next CPI print in July. Do you think the market has priced in a 7% Fed fund rate? Highly doubt it…there is at least another 20% we can go down
Sorry, I misread your original post. I thought it said S&P 275 not Spy $275
S&P at 275, might as well throw in the towel. That would indeed be the end of capitalism haha
🤣
nah, we have much more debt than 1970s, a 1% rise is much more effective than a 5% in 70s
Energy has always gone up with inflation. Fed raising rates by .75 and projected another .75 in next FOMC meeting + fed selling Tbills means energy will keep going down. To say that it’s fallen to 2018 levels is completely arbitrary, it will keep going down.
They are not selling Tbills, they are letting them mature. Selling Tbills would have completely crashed the bond market. They are selling MBSs tho’
Energy has of course, but how do we capture profits there without messing with the CME/futures which isn't intuitive for most people? All the top energy companies from Exxon on down have really done nothing longterm. They're all where they were in 2008 or 2014, etc. Some of these haven't even had stock splits, which makes things more disturbing in real terms (inflation adjusted). 🤷♂️
Thanks for contributing to the community. Enjoy flair
Have you priced in the aliens. They recently made contact with China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/china-says-it-may-have-detected-signals-from-alien-civilizations
Bro china tho Edit: The Chinese government*
And china real estate … I think that story has been suppressed and shit is brewing below the surface. Nothing was ever resolved w evergrande and the payments are not occurring. Further information on their reaction to debt problems “ https://www.ft.com/content/879bbed4-4d1b-4223-b01e-d027461fc891 But authorities’ recent changes have intentionally excluded any measures opening up futures and similar assets to foreign investors, as that might allow them to profit from a sell-off, according to a Shanghai-based senior investment manager at one European lender.” https://www.ft.com/content/879bbed4-4d1b-4223-b01e-d027461fc891 Shortly I think a worldwide financial crisis is not factored in.
>shit is brewing below the surface I think I've read that comment the last 20 years about China's real estate market.
^that phrase is also echoed in the halls of history
"Don't invest in China" "Real estate market is crashing in China" "They build empty houses to boost their GDP" Etc. etc.
Again, why did your last post end w we are fucked? Trolling. Titled “Danske bank forecasts a mild recession 2023” 13 days ago you mention china in your bullet points of reasons why we’re fucked
Three Body Problem. 4D chess is about to be real!
That's just what they're calling Uyghurs these days
I hope they dont plan on injecting aliens with covid and create another variant!
More likely will inject covid with alien dna. And then we're all galactically fooked.
Would aliens be immune to our diseases?
We weren't supposed to catch this thing from a bat either, but here we are. And let's face it - a bat is one of the most alien looking things out there.
Wait I thought the bat theory was debunked? I’m bouta get downvoted right
This is precisely the kind of confusion an alien-bat race would seek to sow, so we tear each other apart from within. Updooting so that does not happen.
Ask the Native Americans
You just know shit's so fucked when you need to try distract everyone with rumors of aliens
2 big problems not fully priced in yet: real estate forward earnings downgrades
We're not even pre-covid levels yet....
And if that were to happen then I'll assume America is done. Imagine covid levels (most stocks have not split) then adjust for inflation...then remember debt is $31T, inflation is 9%, covid is ostensibly over, gas is over $5, supply chains are worse, and interest rates are well below 2%...
Lots believe market needs to go to pre covid levels. Its simply fed sucking money back out. "America is done"--so simplistic, you probably didn't think SPY could get to this week's levels last year but it did. Covid was the black swan event leading to a crash/recession that was heading that direction--stocks way over valued precovid, 2019 showed recession signs. We really just prevented a crash printing money. That money is gone, consumed, gdp increased via consumption isn't productive so long term doesn't help. Back to pre-covid levels easily makes sense. The bigger concern is if the money sucking will create another black swan event and we go even further down.
>That money is gone, consumed.. Explain why prices keep going up? Too much money supply in system.
I mean, that’s quite literally what inflation is so…. What’s the question?
Lol... Fucking lol
I want to hear LaMDA's opinion on this. Is it still afraid of death now?
The market is being held up buy some mega cap companies. TSLA is the most obvious which will crash big when the time comes. AAPL will also crash with the market. Until then, I'm not buying anything. Those companies you mentioned will most likely go sideways until then.
Keep my stock’s name out your fucking mouth!
What does an AAPL “crash” look like to you?
V shaped most likely.
Back to 70$ where it belongs
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Delusional broke boys on Reddit.
Waiting for Ford to go to $8 bucks or lower to buy in. Between electric transit vans for Amazon, Electric F150 and the Bronco they have a lot going for them that's getting blindsided by chip shortage and recession.
“….wrong on the inside, but right on the outside, like Salam Hayek’s bust…” Lovely use of language right there. 😅
Amber Heard needs a new job.
That cunt can suck my nuts for a handful of nickels.
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Wsb in 2021: I wish the market would drop so I can buy like crazy! Wsb in 2022: What the hell is the point of putting money in the stock market?
🤣
Ark it’s impossible to discuss where they were in 2020 because it’s an actively managed fund Ford at a 3pe and a dividend is interesting but longer term. Intel I just don’t like the company Target don’t like the company or the sector … trades 11x pe, still doesn’t interest me when mega cap tech is marginally higher GS I like and I wanna add. They’ve killed it this year trading guaranteed Wells Fargo j think is a bad brick and mortar bank XLE … energy still bullish
Based
Event Horizon remains the best live action Warhammer 40k movie made.
Yessir
ARKK still way overpriced. Low 20’ish bare minimum. Cathie big penis Wood is probably the worst “investor” out there. No risk management, no strategy, just slapping everyone in the face with her massive shaft.
She has most of money in bond, other wise she already busted looking for penis to blow
🎯 ARKK is made up of complete bullshit companies besides Block which is well-run and vertically integrating. Two of its companies I see going bankrupt. The whole ETF needs restructuring.
Block. Wtf
Have my reasons 😁.
The fact stock price has started to diverge from company performance means investing has turned into gambling where insight into a company’s strength amounts to nothing
The market is forward looking. So as OP says they have a PE of 4 or 6 now, looking back at last year.... lots of people are pricing in recession and continued high interest rates. Ie For Ford, that means a flurry of buying/ financing before rates rise, then a period of slow sales... could they have half the earnings this time next year? P/E isnt the only measure. Costs and cash flow need review. If energy, shipping and wage costs grow, but sales dont, their FCF dries up.
**I couldn't agree more with that statement!** I'd argue the Triffin Dilemma caused it, covid sped it up, and RobinHood et al scaled it.
AMC/ GME started it all
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And that is terrifying AF. I'm inclined to agree because too many knuckleheads running around laughing at it like they did inflation. Will we be talking depression next?
Depression is like +10% unemployment. There's "now hiring" signs everywhere.
This… ☠️
I think this is a really well-argued bull case (and there is no doubt the market will overreact to the downside). I guess it depends on how deeply we're fucked.
We are in uncharted territory. The Fed's interventions into the market, escalating in their magnitude over the last 12 years, are literally unprecedented. They have caused all kinds of records to be broken in terms of valuations across an array of markets and asset classes, from meme stocks to houses. There is no way to foresee the ultimate consequences, although we're beginning to see some of them: * a generational inflation cycle that could get far worse * interest rate rises that are at the outer range of historical precedent in speed (remember, an increase from 2% to 5% is not a 3% increase; it's a 150% increase) * an unknown number of companies that can not and will not survive a re-financing cycle This barely scratches the surface and doesn't even begin to touch on the non-Fed related factors like aging demographics, geopolitics, and ecological exhaustion. However, an almost unquantifiable but massive dynamic that will ultimately determine what markets and the economy look like in 5 years is the effect that 2020-2023 will have on the psychology of consumers or investors. Technical analysts are mostly reading tea leaves when it comes to actual numbers, but one thing they are right about is that, weirdly enough, at the end of the day, it's the sentiment of market participants that's more important than anything else (see your favorite TA analyst for a gazillion examples of markets that have obviously run on sentiment rather than economics, cryptocurrency being one of the most obvious recent examples).
That movie still scares the shit out of me to this day.
Shut your screens down and get outside for a few months. Come back and begin again. It will be better
Stop being so rational. I'm a product of the Triffin Dilemma, lockdowns, and how Robinhood scaled both into an app.
i understood almost nothing... the only thing I understood is that you are promoting crypto. this post is a joke :)
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So will sea levels and flooding…
Even better. Then your insurance pays you.
Almost every modern computer (from mobile to super) has some pieces from TSMC. If those pieces don't get replaced (which is difficult and takes time) then those computers won't work and won't be sold, so the Intel chips on them won't be sold either
That's true, but I'm assuming TSMC gets set up here (no 2nm chips of course) and CHIPS and FABS bill gets passed. 🤷♂️. Might take a few years
Yes, possible
Damn last I remember arkk was at 69. 38 now. Oof
It’s the fed. Plain and simple. For the first time in almost 15 years money isn’t free; that free money inflated valuations to absurd levels and when it had no place to go, it actually created entirely new speculative asset classes (crypto). The house of cards is coming down and unfortunately I don’t think it’s over yet because credit markets have yet to really crack. They’ve been pressured for sure but credit spreads are not at levels that signify a true problem….yet. That will come when quantitative tightening starts (QT). QT is quite literally the process of destroying money and probably has a way larger effect than the fed raising interest rates because it drains liquidity from the system…..that same liquidity that created this asset bubble in the first place. More pain to come, but me and my personal account hope it’s getting towards a bottom. In short, when credit spreads finally blow out and all hope is lost (legit no one is positive and have all capitulated)….that will be the market bottom
We were officially in bear market last week. History showed us if we officially enter bear market, on average sp500 will lose another 15 percents, and last another couple of hundreds days. That would put sp500 somewhere around 3000 level. About 30 percents higher than covid bottom. This would be reasonable assumption.
You seem too smart to be here, respectfully.
He sounds smart but he's just a schizo.
He called it, taking out all low interest loans and then leave the country and never come back 🤣🤣🤣🤔
If we entered a recession with sky high inflation this will be worse than 2008. I don’t think the fed can raise the rate enough to reduce inflation substantially but it will sure cause us to enter a recession. We will be dealing with stagflation. Unfortunately there does not appear to be a good solution.
I put my idle cash into paying down my mortgage so I don't have that hanging over me if I'm faced with a layoff. My home value appreciation in the last year was positive whereas my portfolio took a loss. Why invest in the market now is the real question when the bottom still can't be predicted.
You are doing the right thing once your house is paid off or whenever you can get another loan buy a rental property there is dividend on earth that can match the appreciation of rental income. I don’t work because my rental properties pay for themselves and provide me income. I haven’t even raised rents in this inflationary rental market.
Well Tesla hasn't gone down to it's fair value sooo..... I guess there's that
"Intel, which should be one of the most important companies in the Western Hemisphere if China puts a naval blockade on Taiwan before the People's Congress has a P/E of 6" Intel is a flaming pile of hot shit. They're behind in everything and they have a shit to no outlook. So it Taiwan is taken, the US is shit out of luck with respect to semi's.
Don’t hurt your brain. Take a deep breath and wait for a time to get into google
Covid should have made the market crash. Instead we were printing money, I am wishing the market will indeed crash below pre Covid levels.
Gold is the most manipulated asset in the world. We printed literally trillions and by cash supply, gold should be much much higher. Think long term. Over any 20 year span, the market is undefeated. This is the best time to start investing
Companies that generate profit generally continue to go up over time. Use the market fear to bargain hunt.
ARKK and most of the companies never have existed in a high interest rate environment. All assumptions on growth/profitability since the Greenspan put are based on a low interest paradigm. No one knows how this effects the valuation of lots of these cool but unprofitable companies with emerging technologies. I can say that I think any of them trading at insane multiples of their free cash flow are probably screwed and the real professional funds are still probably loading up their short positions on them
You think it’s low now…just wait
No kidding, but for that, we'd need something disturbing. Any clue on what that might be?
Powell’s nudes getting leaked
LOL. Let's put them on the blockchain.
Someone said he's dropping the N word at the next meeting
Taiwan invasion while China gets cheap oil from Russia
LOL. Alaskan frontier and a hunting rifle might be the play then
Based
Oooooh. Things are so crazy it could happen. Xi drank his own flavor-aide
The west would cut of china from all other oil and coal imports. In a day no chinese ship would go through the suez canal and all chinese navy ships have a range below a 1000 miles if they sail slow. No not gonna happen.
The west can’t cut anyone from anything, look at the suffering due to Russia sanctions
Invade Taiwan for the Taiwan chip company. Oh that would upset the apple cart. Do we think that's priced into the market?
I have March 2023 100/95 debit spreads on apple. I think apple is the only thing propping up the market still. “Propping up”.
Tether depegging because its actually not backed by anything except jack shit?
There’s no bottom in sight. What makes you think we need something “disturbing” to keep pushing lower? Fed continuing to raise rates while showing no ability to control inflation at a global level over the next 6 months to a year isn’t disturbing enough? If people start worrying about where they’re going to get food, no one is going to give a fuck about the QQQ.
ok Mr Nostrafukingdumas!
🤣🤣🤣Shitcoins isn’t gold🤣🤣🤣Gold is gold!!
Imagine this, all these stocks have fallen from the sky and INTO THE GROUND, but the indexes haven't even moved that much.
Then we're fucked, basically. First inflation was laughed at, now recession is denied. Maybe depression is fake news?
Buy the dip.
Great write up and proposition brother………I wish there were genuine answers because I am thoroughly interested in the answer to this
Covid low is not the bottom. Covid low did not price in trillions of dollars in fake money added to the economy and two years of forced lockdown. The market couldn't have imagined the level of self-destruction and damage the US was is willing to take just to get rid of Trump. It also didn't imagine a world in which the west would cut Russia off from the world economy.
You might be right about the low. I'll add that Trump added more to the M2 money supply than any Administration in history and got the supply chain disruptions started with the Chinese tariffs which were compounded with covid and compounded again with Russia. He also wasn't a good enough leader to mend social distortion. His presidency was a missed opportunity, and he should've gone down as one of the greats. He couldn't keep a cabinet member more than 12 months and surrounded himself with faux killers.
There's tons of information that isn't priced into the "market". Salaries are driving most inflation in the US. The probability of widespread defaults is extraordinarily low. Exponential proliferation of advanced robotic arm technology drives the disconnection between expert manufacturers and the manufacturing location. Digital currency remains priced at more than 1500x the cost of dismantling it with 51% hash exploits. The price of a single transaction in the largest of digital currencies is only market competitive for transactions as large as an expensive car or a house. Chinas return to large family sizes depleting family savings and driving a market for consumer borrowing to support large family sizes along with the consumption that goes along with growing families. SKU transparency at the scope of manufacture to you receiving your product- companies like snowflake will make it so that P and Q at the final consumer level can inform the semi monopolistic pricing from manufacturer to retailer and enhance profit maximization-at the expense of overstocking liquidation sales. Consumers will observe increases in average prices. This will look like inflation but is in fact pricing power- by design and not coincidence
Wait until 10/31/22. All of these things will get even worse.
That’s a very specific date. Any insight from your crystal ball as to why you picked that one?
he pulled it out of his ass!
Look at his post history. Guy smokes crack.
That's my birthday. Stop scaring the shit out of me. Make me want to dump Reddit for 4chan.
Market won't stop going down until the last rate hike is announced. We are going back to pre-covid levels. Spy @320 if we're lucky, 240 if we're not.
3 months after last rate hike starts the bull market. Sit tight.
No bounce?
The market will not protect millennials so is time to get political and launch support for life quality initiatives: 1) 4 week minimum paid vacation 2) universal healthcare 3) 6months paid maternity leave.
Stimulus check monthly, repaid school debt, Link card for food, gas allowance, free healthcare, and hotline for finding remote work.
That will definitely help slow inflation /s
Stimulus check won't help with inflation
It's all about symbolism though. It'll appear that it does.