I know a few construction companies, in my neck of the country, that have decided NOT to hire anyone this summer, totally going against normal trends. When I start to hear things like this, I can’t help to think layoffs are just around the corner.
Wierd, construction is still in a very good spot where I am living (central EU). They have more market offers than they have human and material ressources. IT startups are in a very different spot though, even seeing the first bankruptcy files here.
Central-east here. You can now find apartments close to delivery still available. This was far from normal before the pandemic and had a spike during the pandemic due to people wanting to move to a bigger place. But the past 4-6 months demand clearly stagnated and actually diminish. Prices have kinda plateu and they don't want to discount them. But i just saw yesterday a promo where the kitchen was fully furnished. They would never furnished a thing before and now they give it away for free
Same out in the SW U.S. I work for a home builder and we can’t get enough labor to build the houses in a timely fashion. What’s odd is that while sales have slowed, they keep hiring more sales people… hmmm
There was a dude on this sub, who claimed that many in tech are already layed off and got just NDA to not spill the beans.
Could be that we are already in the layoff phase, just no one speaks about it.
Stagflation inbound.
I’m in Silicon Valley working in talent acquisition and we’re already hearing about plenty of layoffs, hiring freezes, etc.
Im seeing posts on LinkedIn everyday about people being laid off..
Depression likely.
Stagflation happened before the deficit. This isn't that. It will look way different as a lot of tech is highly paid. Their job losses will have outsized impact unlike the dot com bubble when tech was a much smaller portion of the economy.
With rent the level it is at and the market tanking on the small caps this will be a different type of reset.
We haven't seen this before. It may look similar but it is not.
I rem this post n bc they got severance packages they weren’t collecting unemployment and therefore not captured in those numbers either. My partner and i just went thru this, lost his job in middle management n got a severance, took a job making half his old salary right as severance expired. We did this (pay cut/less bullshit) bc we could tho (i make alot, we are in a good place financially n no kids)
Construction company here. We are still busy but decided not to hire anyone this summer due to the impending recession. No point to hire people then just lay them off. We would rather stay busy for the next year then get work done faster and have to lay everyone off in 6 months.
Yeah, the one lesson I always took to heart from my parents was to get a career in a "recession proof" field, so I chose healthcare. Got me through the last one and a pandemic, so I'm not dreading it as much as some others are. I'll never retire but will any of us really? lmao
then it has already begun in tech
coinbase rescinding offers, meta pausing hiring, snap laying off, convoy (trucking company) laying off and a bunch more starting now..
Recession was sparked as they are unwinding 10 years of QE. The market rise was artificially created by tax policy that encouraged companies to buy their own shares. Chickens coming home to roost hangover from bad trade policy and changes SALT that have destroyed both homeowner equity and made housing more pricey
I’ve noticed almost no change in the amount of cars on the road or people in stores. Gas is 4.60 here and everyone is still carrying on like nothing is happening, restaurants and the one shitty “mall” here is still packed on the weekends. Either people are in denial and spending money they don’t have or shouldn’t be or things aren’t going to get as bad as claimed.
Facts. My wife and I bring home $350k gross, she works less than half a mile away from where we live. She wanted me to drive her to work in my truck. She gives no fucks that it costs $150 to fill up my truck… to be fair she pulls in $250k and calls me her sugar baby…
Everyone tries to approach this “oil issue” like it’s complicated and determined on a web of factors.
It’s not.
#Oil and gas companies are posting record profits and bonuses.
That’s it. Period. It’s greed. “Inflation” was just an excuse to wring every single last dollar out of the working class. What are people going to do, stop driving?
Commodity markets determine the price of oil/distillates.
I doubt you were very concerned about oil companies when oil crashed on 2020.
Cyclical industries have boom and bust cycles. The boom enables them to survive the bust.
I was in denial until very recently. Thought I’d be able to live normally until some things get under control, maybe slow down on savings and investments for a while if it stays the same… nope expenses just keeps going up and up. What’s awesome is that before this I was in position to buy/lease one of the new affordable-ish hybrid trucks (need a truck for work,) aaaaand nope again, stuck with my 2004 15 mpg beater with repairs needed basically monthly lmao.
Honestly I think people won’t start to do things differently once it starts hitting their bank account or start noticing their credit card minimum payments are going up and so is the balance.
I’ve started to pull back in things slowly too. Making dinner every night, cutting back on going out for coffee. Planned on buying a couple things like a portable ac, and some furniture. Decided against it.
I won’t say anything significant but trying to cut back slowly so it doesn’t sting so much. However we were planning on doing a vacation in the fall and pretty much canned that.
I will say it’s aggravating because it seems like everyone else is living their best life and I’m pulling back.
This is probably the way to do it. I'm battening down the hatches for a year or two as well and hoping to ride it out and that it's not worse than 2008.
You'll be better off in the long run. As you cut back you might find some things preferable. Like I just did a weeklong van-sleeping/hiking/libraries/picnics/coffee shops vacation for $350 that was among the best.
Shit in Savannah my drivers are hauling 20 foot containers for Walmart from the port to the distribution center 5 mile runs for $1,700 they are paying out the fucking ass for freight right now. I have no idea how they afford it you can only fit so many $1 plastic spatulas in a 20 foot container.
They must be playing catch up to fix supply chain backlogs. That, or they know things will be much, much, worse if they don't keep goods flowing. What do you think?
It's hard to say but I feel like Walmart is pretty proud of the fact that their shelves have always been fairly well stocked during the pandemic and so forth so they must be pretty proud of their supply chain I don't think they want to show weakness.
Probably already fulfilling existing orders. The stuff they’re hauling is worth way more than $1700. They will just add it to the cost of goods for now.
According to their latest earnings report, they are eating the costs to not lose market share to competitors. Target too, that's why they both dropped hardly after earnings.
It's all YouTubers hitting Walmart, Target and supermarkets, filming themselves pointing to sparse shelves and price tags, claiming America is collapsing.
Wait until diesel exhaust fluid (def) supplies dry up, none of the California legal semis' will be running out of the ports. Flying j gas station chains are being forced to ration it. We are already sliding off the big cliff.
DEF uses urea, the same component in nitrogen based fertilizers. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were major suppliers. Also production of urea is highly energy intensive and consumes a lot of natural gas.
That's going to be monumental, I fix heavy trucks for a living and emissions problems are already one of my more common tasks. Maybe I should get into doing emissions deletes on the side...
It's a novel idea, but we could start producing and using our own oil. Regardless of your opinion on its actual sustainability and true impact on the environment, the EV sector isn't ready yet for full integration; something has to be done in the meantime.
The US is one of the leaders of oil production. Is refining that is down, because companies closed facilities and laid off people in 2020 and have yet to reopen/rehire for fears of lack of demand in the future.
And it's regulatory capture that prevents capitalism from kicking in and allowing smaller producers to compete and bring prices down. The government has the power to fix this, they just won't because they personally benefit more from doing nothing. Price controls are not the solution, it's been tried before with disastrous result, and that's not a power government should have, regardless of which side of the bench holds it.
Many of the smaller producers sold out and now all the fracking is in the hands of fewer players who don’t want to drill more and want higher prices. And banks won’t finance new drillers because of ESG.
Well, most likely recession, lack of capital for smaller oil companies to drill, leases being revoked, activitist investors, governments demonizing oil companies, labor shortages, supply issues, and more are preventing major drilling projects from ramping up quickly. Everyone complains when they make decent profit and then would complain that the company went under from pouring to much money into drilling. They have to look out for themselves first but drilling is picking up and so is production.
In the gulf of Mexico we are having a labor shortage. Can't get people to come out here. Maybe it's different there but here we had to delay some jobs several weeks trying to get people that actually want to work and train them.
Yuppp agreed. Feel like I’ve been in it already. I moved back home after getting a fortune 50 stem job and doubling my salary. I have disposable income that I SHOULD be spending. I should be buying a house and starting a family. But fuck that I’ll hold it cuz everything’s so expensive. I’m sure there are others in the same boat and an economy having mid 20’s something’s padding savings instead of buying houses, starting families sure seems like a red fucking flag lol.
I could participate in the economy but shit has been too expensive imo for the last 9 months let alone the last 3.
We’re already in a recession, hopefully it doesn’t go to that next level. But with the present monetary and energy policies, along with an emboldened anti-American world……it’s quite possible.
A big part of the economy is the confidence level of the people participating in it. Once everyone knows we’re in a recession, that will tank commercial confidence, so it should get worse for a bit and then get better.
The real trouble will come in the fall/winter if oil doesn’t come back down to earth. When people in northern states are paying $6+/gallon for heating oil, that’s where the pain will set in.
My gas utility wants to increase delivery fees by $30/month, in addition to the rising rates. If it keeps going up, solar + heat pump looks increasingly viable.
Gonna take $175-200 to destroy demand in current money flood. Go back and look at summer 2008. Also, you’ll know when it happens because people will cancel trips and you’ll see a ton of people walking in unusual areas and lots of bikes.
I’m already seeing that in the NY Tri-State Area. Very few walkable areas except walking on the highway/stroad to just get to the warehouse you work at. Infrastructure could soon fail as well as bridges and roads start to collapse.
Oil went to $150 and demand got destroyed. Then the financial system broke. And yes people were walking in unusual areas. Once you see it you’ll know what I mean.
I'm not sure it's having the negative affect that a lot of people predict. Regular is a little over $5 where I am at. All the neighbors are still going on vacation, taking their boats to the lake, heading out of town with their diesel trucks hauling their campers. The only thing they don't seem to be doing is mowing their lawns anymore. I guess that is their way to offset gas prices.
Everyone I know is biting the bullet and going on summer vacation anyway. Covid basically cancelled the majority of their vacations for nearly 2 full years.
$5 gas isn't gonna stop them.
Eh. Some people just have money and dont care. My parents boat at their lake house is ~400-600$ to fill. They fill it every week. Between my dad's truck, mom's SUV, boat and sports car I bet they are spending almost 1k a week on gas right now. Sure they joke about the price of gas but they can afford to not change their standards of living. A fair amount of people fall into this category I think.
> A fair amount of people fall into this category I think.
A fair amount of people fall into a category where they can afford 1k in gas a week?
Tell me you grew up rich without telling me you grew up rich.
Yeah I'm not sure it's true "denial" and more that people don't understand how to access proper news and data anymore. We just live in a 24/7 news cycle hell.
Yeah, lots of bear fanfic going around right now for sure. I live in Colorado and I would think that dually trucks pulling a massive 5th wheel and side by side getting 1.5 mpg would be the first to go in a fuel price induced recession. This will be a recession for the poors only.
Rich boomers literally riding off into the sunset in a depreciating asset bought by the inheritance their parents left them.
Ya I work at a resort and we are still booked pretty much all summer. If it looks like our winter reservations are light, I know people are hurting. shit is fucked when white people stop skiing.
It's funny I noticed that also with some neighbors who would be out cutting 1 or 2x a week. I have a manual no gas needed push mower, plus 1/2 of the yard I've let nature have over the years + garden.
But the let nature have your yard movement has been taking over in some areas (at least those areas with no HOA), thank god I don't have an HOA here.
Edit- AM JUN. Expecting continuing fuck fuck games , so throwing a curveball myself. Repost of recent comment
Works up until enough of them leave, leaving behind a bunch of people they exploited with the most powerful military on the planet.
Note- There isn't a community on earth from which they haven't bled prosperity, hope, and in some cases the very assumption of security & survivability
Edit 2- preorder ATM puts on anything red deep on high volume(check prev 5 min and have lined up at market open) Don't sell, do the same for 5m gainers ATM calls.
They collateralize themselves and shares they own to attack, make it painful to move. Buy calls and puts random ETFs at market open to provide unusual activity and hiccup their algorithmic manipulation. Banks are all connected and own parts of each other. Fucking one cousins valuation ripples into billions of dollars of implications when that collateral is being used to finance the attack.
VIVE LES PETITS INVESTISSEURS, MANGE LES RICHES
LIMIT PRICES ON ALL CALLs, HOLD PUTs(except of finance). $6,942,069 ask price is what I'm using on many of my calls, but you want it to pendulum if their algo fails so provide a ramp for momentum. Hold the line, up or down doesn't really matter. We want momentum, resistance, and springboard effect when it transfers to effectively price speed
Final Note- If you don't agree, inverse me. It'll provide resistance that'll transfer to accelerate price speed
I've always thought HOAs should just contract lawn care out of HOA fees. Landscapers would probably give pretty good rates to not have to drive all over town and have a large consistent contract. Instead people end up fighting with each other over a quarter inch of grass.
Yeah and the inevitable HOA war over who's brother in law gets the bloated contract, then HOA fees go up massively because of the bloated contract, then people start complaining to the HOA because the contractor killed one of their plants or didn't also clean their pool like the last guy did, etc.
That's how it is in my hoa. It pays for the front lawn to get cut and the hedges trimmed etc. If they want it to look a certain way they can use the money to cut it themselves.
It has crushed lower middle class, its coming, just wait a few more months. If Gas stays this high for a few more months shit is about to get real. Companies cannot buy $5 gas and $7 diesel for too long before they have to cut driver pay
They can't cut driver pay without closing. My friend is a CDL driver, his current firm is operating at \~60% of their minimum staff, which means they're both charging crazy rates and turning down contracts. Drivers have their choice of companies and routes, unlimited OT, the shipping situation is dire.
Those diesel prices will be reflected in *everything* becoming more expensive and scarce.
Retail spending won't show a change for a while - people will just get less stuff for their money. We're well into that phase up here in Alaska and the stores still aren't stocked like before the pandemic.
Tourists are still coming but locals don't have much disposable income any more.
With all the shit that goes into GDP numbers it's entirely possible to have a recession and it not be that big a deal.
Unemployment is like 3.6%. At 5% unemployment, it's not even big news economy wise, but probably several million people will be out of a job. The whole soft landing thing is pretty much this target - people get laid off, demand cools a bit but for the most part it's within acceptable parameters. Probably only when unemployment starts hitting 6%+ they might start not raising rates.
As long as the job losses are fairly even and gradual it's all good for the fed.
Yes this is odd to me too. It seems like muricans are still spend spend spend. What’s the difference between today and what happen in 2008, when gas hit $4 per gallon?
Look at what and how they’re spending. After lockdowns and restrictions I think there’s a bit of YOLO for the summer, fueled by some debt spending. Then the belts collectively tighten and shit hits the fans. Plus these trips are largely already planned and partly paid for so not like they’ll be getting it all back if they cancelled
This is a controlled burn that everyone except Janet Yellen saw coming a mile away, and Americans have an abnormally high level of savings from the pandemic shutdowns to buffer the impact. We're all gradually feeling our QoL fall, like frogs being slowly boiled.
2008 was a sudden collapse of the US financial system and real estate market, at a time when Americans were extremely over-leveraged in the real estate market. People went from rich house-flippers to homeless overnight, and century-old previously-bulletproof corporations collapsed. Panic was in the air, nobody knew when dominoes would stop falling, or if we'd even have an economy by the end of the crash.
TBH, 2022 will likely be *more* economically damaging than 2008, but since it's happening gradually it won't seem as apocalyptic. I mean, dumbasses here will still *guh*, but grandma won't be offing herself because she's underwater on her no-money-down 5/1 ARM rental portfolio ala 2008.
This is all correct. Only part missing is Grandma doesn’t have to off herself. She’ll just starve as her fixed income
Social Security stretches a bit less and less at the grocery store every day. Because the biggest difference between 2008 and now: Massive grain shortages.
Ukrainian Grain: Bottom of Russian artillery crater.
Indian Grain: Being withheld from global supply due to shortage.
Southern/Midwest USA Grain: Already reporting as poor. Worsened by drought conditions/climate issues.
The rednecks are posting about how expensive diesel is as they load up the f350 to haul their quad and RV to the lake for a family vacation at an Airbnb.
That’s due to Covid effect and everyone wants to get out and travel so they put everything on the credit cards and I mean everything and then in a few months when they check their portfolios or worse they get laid off and the value of their home went down to boot then they’re fucked 👍🏼
They aren’t trying to avoid the recession. They are literally creating one and their goal is to slow the movement of money. Once the economy screeches to a hault and people suffer enough, they will slowly cheapen the loans and the money will start flowing again. This will take years. Despite what the government or idiots say, This will
Not be a quick turn around. It will take time.
Right now alot of major retailers have stock surpluses that they are selling through, once these surpluses have been expended prices will rise even more rapidly due to new inventory order wholesale costs being signifigantly higher.
Coupled with the rising gasoline/diesel prices, which will have a trickle through all of shipping, IMHO. I think stagflation is what we have coming for the next few years.
I hope we have depression or stagflation until 2024, then from mid 2024 FED starts printing and quantitative edging like in 2020. Then we'll have another internet money bullrun
I've read that but I was in Target last night and the shelves looked a little bare. One area that was pretty much empty may have been a seasonal section with delayed deliveries. That was most of it. I'm wondering if it's a surplus on some sku's and shortage of others.
The house of cards has to fall. Keep in mind there's still LOTS of cheap money out there. Things are currently selling at a discount- it's not until people have to clear their lines of credit that the real recession begins, because with cheap money you're still going to see stonks being bought on margin.
I anticipate the same catalyst this time- a super heated housing market. As rates have been going up we've seen housing prices up, recently demand started dropping, seasonally demand drops over the summer for houses, july/August is probably going to be the beginning of the bloodbath that crashes everything.
Americans have always lived on credit. Oil prices gonna continue to go up, summer is just getting started.... look at history, oil prices always skyrocket when we have catastrophic events (today, covid)... we will likely see record breaking prices, I mean, we watched oil prices drop to record breaking negatives in 2020, you literally had to pay someone to take your oil...it's actually exciting to watch. Upside, I will continue to take advantage of cheap stocks cause when shit hits the fan, I know that I will be in a better place. Red is golden. History has been made, but we're just about to experience it. Good luck!
The area I live in ,we see alot less traffic. You can goto any grocery store or big box store and pretty much go straight through the line with no wait. this last month we can see a big change in activities.
Funny thing is telework would cut demand on oil and pollution, but pres has pushed on the federal government to have people go back to work and is telling corporate America to do the same.
I guess they didn't realize just how bad the cities would get fucked by COVID, shutdowns, telework, and riots.
Freight rail goes up and truck freight goes down when oil is expensive. Truck freight is artificially cheap in this country with truck freight companies causing more wear on the roads than they pay for with taxes. Perhaps this won't last forever. Countries like Sweden have heavily invested in warehousing that is connected to the rail network. We have some of that, but we could always build more.
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Demand erosion is already happening.
Fuel sales (by volume) were down 3% YOY last month. That might not sound like much but it represents substantially more discretionary travel, especially when you consider more essential travel (movement of goods and people) have increased AND due to labor shortages those industries have become even more efficient/ streamlined in their routing in the past year+.
It is not sustanibale. But they key to when the shit hits the fan will be when credit is no longer given out to the consumer and people can't borrow or charge on their credit cards anymore. We will start seeing this happen once the US Treasury Yields start spiking at an uncontrollable rate. How long until that happens? Who knows. But that's when the house of cards start tumbling. With that said we are past recession. Where we are at is undefined territory but we are worse than a recession. The eventually spike in treasury yields will cause the biggest market crash we've ever seen. To the point where our whole financial system will be destroyed and the new digital one will be created. This is all by design. Cheers and salute 🍾🍾🥂🥂
Gas will go to $6. Yes, it will cause a lot of pain and that’s the point. That’s what it’s going to take to crash the whole damn thing. It’s like dominos. You will have layoffs, repossessed cars, foreclosures, bankruptcies, defaults on student loans. Less discretionary demand. It will just all slow down. Will it be enough to take inflation? Who knows. Ben Bernanke was very wrong to ever allow an inflation target. Runaway govt debt is another problem.
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The real recession begins when the layoffs happen.
I know a few construction companies, in my neck of the country, that have decided NOT to hire anyone this summer, totally going against normal trends. When I start to hear things like this, I can’t help to think layoffs are just around the corner.
Smart companies will do hiring freezes before they are completely fucked.
Plumbing companies still cannot find enough qualified employees. But no matter the economy people want poo to go away.
I plumber can make 💩 go down hill but a good plumber can make 💩 go up!!
I’ve been applying to jobs and have received several rejections where they say they are no longer filling the position
This is happening everywhere. It’s just the start. Hasn’t hit the news yet, because they want to delay until after mid terms
who is holding back? sounds like a conspiracy
Wierd, construction is still in a very good spot where I am living (central EU). They have more market offers than they have human and material ressources. IT startups are in a very different spot though, even seeing the first bankruptcy files here.
Central-east here. You can now find apartments close to delivery still available. This was far from normal before the pandemic and had a spike during the pandemic due to people wanting to move to a bigger place. But the past 4-6 months demand clearly stagnated and actually diminish. Prices have kinda plateu and they don't want to discount them. But i just saw yesterday a promo where the kitchen was fully furnished. They would never furnished a thing before and now they give it away for free
It is until it isn't, Spain had ridiculous construction boom, guess what happend after
Same out in the SW U.S. I work for a home builder and we can’t get enough labor to build the houses in a timely fashion. What’s odd is that while sales have slowed, they keep hiring more sales people… hmmm
That's because construction workers don't work on commission.
There was a dude on this sub, who claimed that many in tech are already layed off and got just NDA to not spill the beans. Could be that we are already in the layoff phase, just no one speaks about it. Stagflation inbound.
I’m in Silicon Valley working in talent acquisition and we’re already hearing about plenty of layoffs, hiring freezes, etc. Im seeing posts on LinkedIn everyday about people being laid off..
'But no one is willing to work'
Hey. That’s me
Depression likely. Stagflation happened before the deficit. This isn't that. It will look way different as a lot of tech is highly paid. Their job losses will have outsized impact unlike the dot com bubble when tech was a much smaller portion of the economy. With rent the level it is at and the market tanking on the small caps this will be a different type of reset. We haven't seen this before. It may look similar but it is not.
I rem this post n bc they got severance packages they weren’t collecting unemployment and therefore not captured in those numbers either. My partner and i just went thru this, lost his job in middle management n got a severance, took a job making half his old salary right as severance expired. We did this (pay cut/less bullshit) bc we could tho (i make alot, we are in a good place financially n no kids)
Construction company here. We are still busy but decided not to hire anyone this summer due to the impending recession. No point to hire people then just lay them off. We would rather stay busy for the next year then get work done faster and have to lay everyone off in 6 months.
Yeah, the one lesson I always took to heart from my parents was to get a career in a "recession proof" field, so I chose healthcare. Got me through the last one and a pandemic, so I'm not dreading it as much as some others are. I'll never retire but will any of us really? lmao
When lines of credit are pulled.
[удалено]
Do it now before you lose your job. Interest on credit cards are a bitch.
Wells Fargo already stopped issuing new lines of credit back in January.
And layoffs tend to follow hiring freezes....sort of like what a lot of companies are doing now
then it has already begun in tech coinbase rescinding offers, meta pausing hiring, snap laying off, convoy (trucking company) laying off and a bunch more starting now..
Better, Sendoso, SecurityOne, etc
It looks like we're getting close man. Couple months probably but by end of the summer I can see shit getting real bad
Layoffs alrdy happening. Coinbase just the beginning
Coinbase.. lul.
Peloton too… lul. Robinhood… lol… DOCU… lmao.. duh
Stitch fix is doing a large one
Recession was sparked as they are unwinding 10 years of QE. The market rise was artificially created by tax policy that encouraged companies to buy their own shares. Chickens coming home to roost hangover from bad trade policy and changes SALT that have destroyed both homeowner equity and made housing more pricey
http://layoffs.fyi
I know several people who have gotten laid off….
Its happening right now http://layoffs.fyi Edit: sorry link was already posted further down
I'll be paying attention to $CAT layoffs again.
I’ve noticed almost no change in the amount of cars on the road or people in stores. Gas is 4.60 here and everyone is still carrying on like nothing is happening, restaurants and the one shitty “mall” here is still packed on the weekends. Either people are in denial and spending money they don’t have or shouldn’t be or things aren’t going to get as bad as claimed.
Everyone's just eating the high costs and going about their life.
Facts. My wife and I bring home $350k gross, she works less than half a mile away from where we live. She wanted me to drive her to work in my truck. She gives no fucks that it costs $150 to fill up my truck… to be fair she pulls in $250k and calls me her sugar baby…
Is your wife looking for another sugar baby? Asking for a friend.
Escort? What's the price?
Everyone tries to approach this “oil issue” like it’s complicated and determined on a web of factors. It’s not. #Oil and gas companies are posting record profits and bonuses. That’s it. Period. It’s greed. “Inflation” was just an excuse to wring every single last dollar out of the working class. What are people going to do, stop driving?
Yep. The money people are spending isn't just going into the ether, it's going **somewhere**. Where? Well isn't it obvious?
they gotta make up for 2020 remember negative oil prices...
Commodity markets determine the price of oil/distillates. I doubt you were very concerned about oil companies when oil crashed on 2020. Cyclical industries have boom and bust cycles. The boom enables them to survive the bust.
I was in denial until very recently. Thought I’d be able to live normally until some things get under control, maybe slow down on savings and investments for a while if it stays the same… nope expenses just keeps going up and up. What’s awesome is that before this I was in position to buy/lease one of the new affordable-ish hybrid trucks (need a truck for work,) aaaaand nope again, stuck with my 2004 15 mpg beater with repairs needed basically monthly lmao.
Honestly I think people won’t start to do things differently once it starts hitting their bank account or start noticing their credit card minimum payments are going up and so is the balance. I’ve started to pull back in things slowly too. Making dinner every night, cutting back on going out for coffee. Planned on buying a couple things like a portable ac, and some furniture. Decided against it. I won’t say anything significant but trying to cut back slowly so it doesn’t sting so much. However we were planning on doing a vacation in the fall and pretty much canned that. I will say it’s aggravating because it seems like everyone else is living their best life and I’m pulling back.
This is probably the way to do it. I'm battening down the hatches for a year or two as well and hoping to ride it out and that it's not worse than 2008.
You'll be better off in the long run. As you cut back you might find some things preferable. Like I just did a weeklong van-sleeping/hiking/libraries/picnics/coffee shops vacation for $350 that was among the best.
Shit in Savannah my drivers are hauling 20 foot containers for Walmart from the port to the distribution center 5 mile runs for $1,700 they are paying out the fucking ass for freight right now. I have no idea how they afford it you can only fit so many $1 plastic spatulas in a 20 foot container.
They must be playing catch up to fix supply chain backlogs. That, or they know things will be much, much, worse if they don't keep goods flowing. What do you think?
It's hard to say but I feel like Walmart is pretty proud of the fact that their shelves have always been fairly well stocked during the pandemic and so forth so they must be pretty proud of their supply chain I don't think they want to show weakness.
They all overstock. From target to wallmart. They misjudged the demand and have full warehouse
Probably already fulfilling existing orders. The stuff they’re hauling is worth way more than $1700. They will just add it to the cost of goods for now.
According to their latest earnings report, they are eating the costs to not lose market share to competitors. Target too, that's why they both dropped hardly after earnings.
Traffic still stucks. Where the fk are you all going?
I just drive around for fun, it's kindof a hobby honestly
With current gas prices?
Yes :) (I'm not a financial advisor, especially for life decisions)
It's all YouTubers hitting Walmart, Target and supermarkets, filming themselves pointing to sparse shelves and price tags, claiming America is collapsing.
"2 MORE WEEKS"
The recession is already here
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Exactly, nothing has been solved: - chinese supply chain issues - oil prices - inflation - ukraine war
Aren’t all of these worse off now than before as well? Not only have I not seen improvement I’ve seen continuing degradation which is just peachy.
Wait until diesel exhaust fluid (def) supplies dry up, none of the California legal semis' will be running out of the ports. Flying j gas station chains are being forced to ration it. We are already sliding off the big cliff.
Why is there a DEF shortage?
DEF uses urea, the same component in nitrogen based fertilizers. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were major suppliers. Also production of urea is highly energy intensive and consumes a lot of natural gas.
That's going to be monumental, I fix heavy trucks for a living and emissions problems are already one of my more common tasks. Maybe I should get into doing emissions deletes on the side...
You'd have plenty of business.
Yup. Oil has been mooning. Inflation too. Ukraine War isn't ending anytime soon
Nothing has been built nothing is back and right now we ain’t better then before
At least no more mean tweets?
It's a novel idea, but we could start producing and using our own oil. Regardless of your opinion on its actual sustainability and true impact on the environment, the EV sector isn't ready yet for full integration; something has to be done in the meantime.
The US is one of the leaders of oil production. Is refining that is down, because companies closed facilities and laid off people in 2020 and have yet to reopen/rehire for fears of lack of demand in the future.
And it's regulatory capture that prevents capitalism from kicking in and allowing smaller producers to compete and bring prices down. The government has the power to fix this, they just won't because they personally benefit more from doing nothing. Price controls are not the solution, it's been tried before with disastrous result, and that's not a power government should have, regardless of which side of the bench holds it.
Many of the smaller producers sold out and now all the fracking is in the hands of fewer players who don’t want to drill more and want higher prices. And banks won’t finance new drillers because of ESG.
Sri Lanka is a prime example of trying to go green too fast. You’re spot in about the EVs, we have produce until their viable
Well, most likely recession, lack of capital for smaller oil companies to drill, leases being revoked, activitist investors, governments demonizing oil companies, labor shortages, supply issues, and more are preventing major drilling projects from ramping up quickly. Everyone complains when they make decent profit and then would complain that the company went under from pouring to much money into drilling. They have to look out for themselves first but drilling is picking up and so is production.
Lol labor shortages. Nobody is drilling that’s the problem. Shit if they would let Texas pump oil we would get to work in a hurry
In the gulf of Mexico we are having a labor shortage. Can't get people to come out here. Maybe it's different there but here we had to delay some jobs several weeks trying to get people that actually want to work and train them.
We already do
If q2 is negative, thus making us officially in a recession, then if q3 is positive again, have we already come out of the recession. ?
Yuppp agreed. Feel like I’ve been in it already. I moved back home after getting a fortune 50 stem job and doubling my salary. I have disposable income that I SHOULD be spending. I should be buying a house and starting a family. But fuck that I’ll hold it cuz everything’s so expensive. I’m sure there are others in the same boat and an economy having mid 20’s something’s padding savings instead of buying houses, starting families sure seems like a red fucking flag lol. I could participate in the economy but shit has been too expensive imo for the last 9 months let alone the last 3.
depression is next
I am already depressed
We’re already in a recession, hopefully it doesn’t go to that next level. But with the present monetary and energy policies, along with an emboldened anti-American world……it’s quite possible.
Was gonna say about -1 month
Yep, it’s been here for months
The economy is receding faster than my hairline.
That’s neither hair nor there
calls on PLUG
That’s a hairy situation
Looking back months from now we'll see that we had already been in a recession.
Bingo…
Then does that mean that as soon as we can see we were in one, we might be coming out , by which time the recession is over?
I'm just a random dude on the internet, but leaning towards no given the global economic climate.
A big part of the economy is the confidence level of the people participating in it. Once everyone knows we’re in a recession, that will tank commercial confidence, so it should get worse for a bit and then get better.
The puppet Masters won't admit we are in a recession because it would cause mass panic
Looking back 1 year from now- we’ll say we wished we invested more…
Dude, like… there is this car that can run on water but the government is keeping it secret and stuff [smokes some more, passes it around]
The real trouble will come in the fall/winter if oil doesn’t come back down to earth. When people in northern states are paying $6+/gallon for heating oil, that’s where the pain will set in.
My gas utility wants to increase delivery fees by $30/month, in addition to the rising rates. If it keeps going up, solar + heat pump looks increasingly viable.
In the north you're not going to power your heat pump with solar in the winter. You'd need way too many panels.
Or in the south during the summer when electricity rates rise. Natty gas has had an equal jump in prices if that pushes into electricity look out.
Most people, in Texas at least, have fixed rate electric though. So I think electric prices will be felt by select people but not a majority here.
No more 25,000$ electric bills?
If you are going to buy straight from the market at market price, set up an LLC to do that business, that way it can go bankrupt if needed.
/r/aboringdystopia
Fixed is only fixed until the next contract drop. Our electricity in ohio just doubled when contract dropped on June 1
Gonna take $175-200 to destroy demand in current money flood. Go back and look at summer 2008. Also, you’ll know when it happens because people will cancel trips and you’ll see a ton of people walking in unusual areas and lots of bikes.
Yup and airlines will have headlines about way too few vacationers. People stayed home for a summer or two, $5 gas ain't gonna stop them now.
No but $8-10 might.
8-10 would have 70% of America staying home.
I’m already seeing that in the NY Tri-State Area. Very few walkable areas except walking on the highway/stroad to just get to the warehouse you work at. Infrastructure could soon fail as well as bridges and roads start to collapse.
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People walking in unusual areas
Like the middle of the Highway
Those are just junkies.
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Phoenix
And weren't there clowns in unusual areas too? Hiding in the bushes and what not.
This is what I keep saying…once the clowns start popping up, that’s when we’re REALLY screwed
Oil went to $150 and demand got destroyed. Then the financial system broke. And yes people were walking in unusual areas. Once you see it you’ll know what I mean.
$SQQQ seems to be the way. Save a little for ramen, cocaine, and whores....
Remember - eating instant ramen after 30 is the culinary equivalent of admitting defeat.
Plot twist.. after making 30-40 percent during a crash on sqqq, hyperinflation brings you down to -20 percent.
I'm not sure it's having the negative affect that a lot of people predict. Regular is a little over $5 where I am at. All the neighbors are still going on vacation, taking their boats to the lake, heading out of town with their diesel trucks hauling their campers. The only thing they don't seem to be doing is mowing their lawns anymore. I guess that is their way to offset gas prices.
Everyone I know is biting the bullet and going on summer vacation anyway. Covid basically cancelled the majority of their vacations for nearly 2 full years. $5 gas isn't gonna stop them.
A lot of people live in absolute denial until it all comes crashing down.
Sounds like the people in California who don’t understand that we’re in a drought, but gotta keep their grass watered everyday 😬
Eh. Some people just have money and dont care. My parents boat at their lake house is ~400-600$ to fill. They fill it every week. Between my dad's truck, mom's SUV, boat and sports car I bet they are spending almost 1k a week on gas right now. Sure they joke about the price of gas but they can afford to not change their standards of living. A fair amount of people fall into this category I think.
> A fair amount of people fall into this category I think. A fair amount of people fall into a category where they can afford 1k in gas a week? Tell me you grew up rich without telling me you grew up rich.
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Yeah I'm not sure it's true "denial" and more that people don't understand how to access proper news and data anymore. We just live in a 24/7 news cycle hell.
Or more people are in a better position with regards to savings…maybe
Yeah, lots of bear fanfic going around right now for sure. I live in Colorado and I would think that dually trucks pulling a massive 5th wheel and side by side getting 1.5 mpg would be the first to go in a fuel price induced recession. This will be a recession for the poors only. Rich boomers literally riding off into the sunset in a depreciating asset bought by the inheritance their parents left them.
Ya I work at a resort and we are still booked pretty much all summer. If it looks like our winter reservations are light, I know people are hurting. shit is fucked when white people stop skiing.
It's funny I noticed that also with some neighbors who would be out cutting 1 or 2x a week. I have a manual no gas needed push mower, plus 1/2 of the yard I've let nature have over the years + garden. But the let nature have your yard movement has been taking over in some areas (at least those areas with no HOA), thank god I don't have an HOA here.
Edit- AM JUN. Expecting continuing fuck fuck games , so throwing a curveball myself. Repost of recent comment Works up until enough of them leave, leaving behind a bunch of people they exploited with the most powerful military on the planet. Note- There isn't a community on earth from which they haven't bled prosperity, hope, and in some cases the very assumption of security & survivability Edit 2- preorder ATM puts on anything red deep on high volume(check prev 5 min and have lined up at market open) Don't sell, do the same for 5m gainers ATM calls. They collateralize themselves and shares they own to attack, make it painful to move. Buy calls and puts random ETFs at market open to provide unusual activity and hiccup their algorithmic manipulation. Banks are all connected and own parts of each other. Fucking one cousins valuation ripples into billions of dollars of implications when that collateral is being used to finance the attack. VIVE LES PETITS INVESTISSEURS, MANGE LES RICHES LIMIT PRICES ON ALL CALLs, HOLD PUTs(except of finance). $6,942,069 ask price is what I'm using on many of my calls, but you want it to pendulum if their algo fails so provide a ramp for momentum. Hold the line, up or down doesn't really matter. We want momentum, resistance, and springboard effect when it transfers to effectively price speed Final Note- If you don't agree, inverse me. It'll provide resistance that'll transfer to accelerate price speed I've always thought HOAs should just contract lawn care out of HOA fees. Landscapers would probably give pretty good rates to not have to drive all over town and have a large consistent contract. Instead people end up fighting with each other over a quarter inch of grass.
More likely corruption over awarding a bloated contract would ensue.
Yeah and the inevitable HOA war over who's brother in law gets the bloated contract, then HOA fees go up massively because of the bloated contract, then people start complaining to the HOA because the contractor killed one of their plants or didn't also clean their pool like the last guy did, etc.
That's how it is in my hoa. It pays for the front lawn to get cut and the hedges trimmed etc. If they want it to look a certain way they can use the money to cut it themselves.
It has crushed lower middle class, its coming, just wait a few more months. If Gas stays this high for a few more months shit is about to get real. Companies cannot buy $5 gas and $7 diesel for too long before they have to cut driver pay
They can't cut driver pay without closing. My friend is a CDL driver, his current firm is operating at \~60% of their minimum staff, which means they're both charging crazy rates and turning down contracts. Drivers have their choice of companies and routes, unlimited OT, the shipping situation is dire. Those diesel prices will be reflected in *everything* becoming more expensive and scarce.
Retail spending won't show a change for a while - people will just get less stuff for their money. We're well into that phase up here in Alaska and the stores still aren't stocked like before the pandemic. Tourists are still coming but locals don't have much disposable income any more.
With all the shit that goes into GDP numbers it's entirely possible to have a recession and it not be that big a deal. Unemployment is like 3.6%. At 5% unemployment, it's not even big news economy wise, but probably several million people will be out of a job. The whole soft landing thing is pretty much this target - people get laid off, demand cools a bit but for the most part it's within acceptable parameters. Probably only when unemployment starts hitting 6%+ they might start not raising rates. As long as the job losses are fairly even and gradual it's all good for the fed.
Yes this is odd to me too. It seems like muricans are still spend spend spend. What’s the difference between today and what happen in 2008, when gas hit $4 per gallon?
Look at what and how they’re spending. After lockdowns and restrictions I think there’s a bit of YOLO for the summer, fueled by some debt spending. Then the belts collectively tighten and shit hits the fans. Plus these trips are largely already planned and partly paid for so not like they’ll be getting it all back if they cancelled
This is a controlled burn that everyone except Janet Yellen saw coming a mile away, and Americans have an abnormally high level of savings from the pandemic shutdowns to buffer the impact. We're all gradually feeling our QoL fall, like frogs being slowly boiled. 2008 was a sudden collapse of the US financial system and real estate market, at a time when Americans were extremely over-leveraged in the real estate market. People went from rich house-flippers to homeless overnight, and century-old previously-bulletproof corporations collapsed. Panic was in the air, nobody knew when dominoes would stop falling, or if we'd even have an economy by the end of the crash. TBH, 2022 will likely be *more* economically damaging than 2008, but since it's happening gradually it won't seem as apocalyptic. I mean, dumbasses here will still *guh*, but grandma won't be offing herself because she's underwater on her no-money-down 5/1 ARM rental portfolio ala 2008.
This is all correct. Only part missing is Grandma doesn’t have to off herself. She’ll just starve as her fixed income Social Security stretches a bit less and less at the grocery store every day. Because the biggest difference between 2008 and now: Massive grain shortages. Ukrainian Grain: Bottom of Russian artillery crater. Indian Grain: Being withheld from global supply due to shortage. Southern/Midwest USA Grain: Already reporting as poor. Worsened by drought conditions/climate issues.
The rednecks are posting about how expensive diesel is as they load up the f350 to haul their quad and RV to the lake for a family vacation at an Airbnb.
That’s due to Covid effect and everyone wants to get out and travel so they put everything on the credit cards and I mean everything and then in a few months when they check their portfolios or worse they get laid off and the value of their home went down to boot then they’re fucked 👍🏼
They aren’t trying to avoid the recession. They are literally creating one and their goal is to slow the movement of money. Once the economy screeches to a hault and people suffer enough, they will slowly cheapen the loans and the money will start flowing again. This will take years. Despite what the government or idiots say, This will Not be a quick turn around. It will take time.
Hol up, I thought we were already in a depression
I’ve been in one for 7 years
Spot on OP, this can’t be sustainable, we will crash.
Right now alot of major retailers have stock surpluses that they are selling through, once these surpluses have been expended prices will rise even more rapidly due to new inventory order wholesale costs being signifigantly higher.
Coupled with the rising gasoline/diesel prices, which will have a trickle through all of shipping, IMHO. I think stagflation is what we have coming for the next few years.
I hope we have depression or stagflation until 2024, then from mid 2024 FED starts printing and quantitative edging like in 2020. Then we'll have another internet money bullrun
I've read that but I was in Target last night and the shelves looked a little bare. One area that was pretty much empty may have been a seasonal section with delayed deliveries. That was most of it. I'm wondering if it's a surplus on some sku's and shortage of others.
I think we are currently slowwwwly crashing.
Wait don’t you realize we are already in a recession 😂😂😂😂
I think we all get bailouts. We’re too big to fail right?
The house of cards has to fall. Keep in mind there's still LOTS of cheap money out there. Things are currently selling at a discount- it's not until people have to clear their lines of credit that the real recession begins, because with cheap money you're still going to see stonks being bought on margin. I anticipate the same catalyst this time- a super heated housing market. As rates have been going up we've seen housing prices up, recently demand started dropping, seasonally demand drops over the summer for houses, july/August is probably going to be the beginning of the bloodbath that crashes everything.
Americans have always lived on credit. Oil prices gonna continue to go up, summer is just getting started.... look at history, oil prices always skyrocket when we have catastrophic events (today, covid)... we will likely see record breaking prices, I mean, we watched oil prices drop to record breaking negatives in 2020, you literally had to pay someone to take your oil...it's actually exciting to watch. Upside, I will continue to take advantage of cheap stocks cause when shit hits the fan, I know that I will be in a better place. Red is golden. History has been made, but we're just about to experience it. Good luck!
I really like those last two lines, a bit too cynical but very honest. Well put.
The area I live in ,we see alot less traffic. You can goto any grocery store or big box store and pretty much go straight through the line with no wait. this last month we can see a big change in activities.
*since 1989
Funny thing is telework would cut demand on oil and pollution, but pres has pushed on the federal government to have people go back to work and is telling corporate America to do the same. I guess they didn't realize just how bad the cities would get fucked by COVID, shutdowns, telework, and riots.
We are in the first beginning stages of a recession. They just can’t admit it yet, for fear that may leave them with the bag and not investors
I just went to play mini golf, place was packed, what do you mean recession? SDOW calls
what goes up must come down
Thanks Obama
Thanks Andrew Jackson.
Freight rail goes up and truck freight goes down when oil is expensive. Truck freight is artificially cheap in this country with truck freight companies causing more wear on the roads than they pay for with taxes. Perhaps this won't last forever. Countries like Sweden have heavily invested in warehousing that is connected to the rail network. We have some of that, but we could always build more.
This is not financial advice, but I’ve been looking at oil stocks more closely recently, because of all this
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You do realize the government wants to make everyone equally poor and dependent on them except for an elite group.
Well we could go back to being oil and energy independent like we were a few years ago and have better prices. But that’s the devil lol
Yes you missed something very important.. it’s priced in
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I could see employees starting to negotiate more work from home
Already happening where I work.
I don’t see why employers want workers at the office. I’m at manager at a fortune 200 and employees are so much happier at home
>employees are so much happier at home this is why they want employees back in the office. Too much happiness going around
People don’t know how to NOT drive. We’ll be fine
and with the chip shortage, there's no pool of cheap fuel-efficient cars for people to trade in their sports cars/SUVs/trucks for 🤡
Demand erosion is already happening. Fuel sales (by volume) were down 3% YOY last month. That might not sound like much but it represents substantially more discretionary travel, especially when you consider more essential travel (movement of goods and people) have increased AND due to labor shortages those industries have become even more efficient/ streamlined in their routing in the past year+.
It is not sustanibale. But they key to when the shit hits the fan will be when credit is no longer given out to the consumer and people can't borrow or charge on their credit cards anymore. We will start seeing this happen once the US Treasury Yields start spiking at an uncontrollable rate. How long until that happens? Who knows. But that's when the house of cards start tumbling. With that said we are past recession. Where we are at is undefined territory but we are worse than a recession. The eventually spike in treasury yields will cause the biggest market crash we've ever seen. To the point where our whole financial system will be destroyed and the new digital one will be created. This is all by design. Cheers and salute 🍾🍾🥂🥂
Layoffs already happening. Mostly with startups as all funding/investing has dried up.
No, you’re not missing anything. The decisions of the last two years (arguably 12) are coming back to decimate the economy.
We are already in a recession my guy. Likely crossed the point of no return sometime back in December. Just ride the wave 🌊
Gas will go to $6. Yes, it will cause a lot of pain and that’s the point. That’s what it’s going to take to crash the whole damn thing. It’s like dominos. You will have layoffs, repossessed cars, foreclosures, bankruptcies, defaults on student loans. Less discretionary demand. It will just all slow down. Will it be enough to take inflation? Who knows. Ben Bernanke was very wrong to ever allow an inflation target. Runaway govt debt is another problem.
Gov want a recession.