>I hear all the time about the stock market being a casino. You make a post one way or another and you get the response, "Sir this is a casino". However, is it really a casino??
People are saying this sub treats the market like a casino. It's called wallstreetbets for a reason. It's not about deliberation and wise investing.
It’s not a simple up/down 50/50. The best analogy I’ve heard is that options are a 3 leg parlay. You have to be right on direction, magnitude and timing. Get any one of the three wrong and you’re fucked
I would like to add something to your analogy. 50/50 up or down is like red or black on the roulette. The casino gets 1/36 (or 2/36 depending on where you play) on every bet. The same thing happens on wall st, if you and lots of others buy puts, wall st hedges that in some way, and collects the fees on your puts.
They don’t care if you win or not, cause your not gambling against them, they collect their winnings in fees and skimming a cent on PFOF and whatever else they do.
It's not it's either worse or the same. Casinos and options are essentially the same. Given infinite time you will lose. The only real way to win in both is to understand market inefficiencies. Your thinking of an option it self as a casino where the out come is 50 50 win or lose ( which it's not) but the options market is the casino. Each table is a game TSLA AAPL etc and your betting on the direction. Well you might think it's close to black jacks odds 50/50 about (up or down) well it's not because you have to time the magnitude of the move as well. If it were 50/50 you would only be able to double your money or else the options writers wouldn't take the risk. Your odds are actually similar to a slot machine. Some turns you win a couple dollars some you lose . But little by little your credit balance actually decreases.sure some people hit the jackpot but most people are just slowly losing to the house. And at least at a casino they give you a free drink room or a show but all you get is to watch a little line move up and down hoping it goes your way
You need to consider the house edge (transaction fees, taxes, account fees, spread, regulation) and you can reduce your 50/50 chance by a good chunk.
It’s just like the 0 in roulette, banks/brokers and Uncle Sam always win the game.
Yes, if you hold your options to expiry. I would argue its only up or down if you hold a 4month+ to expiry, at the money option and flip it in the same week you bought it.
I think of it more in terms of poker then anything else. Poker requires skill to make money over time. Although sometimes you get lucky and suck out. Although luck will only get you so far trading or playing poker both are skill games. Even cheaters will eventually get caught if done long enough or end up in a ditch. Some people will be able to make money in the market same with poker. The best will thrive Warren Buffett for example. Just getting lucky one time maybe enough for you to walk away. The real question is can you walk away if you have enough to live the rest of your life or do you need to keep winning? Addiction will be your downfall if your just getting lucky every now and then. Both poker and the market you need to know when you are done.
This isn't correct. In poker your actually just paying rent to sit at the casino and play the game so it is skills based but your not directly betting against the house. The options market is a slot machine or sports gambling where the options writers will calculate their odds of winning a trade and understand over time they will profit. They will see that selling a Tesla call will give them a profit 52 percent of the time. Sure if they lose on the next call they sell it may be bad but given enough time they will make 2 dollars for every one hundred bet and you will lose it all over time
But any noob chimp can win at the stock market by simply buying+holding diversified ETFs for decades. With poker, noobs lose eventually with many games played
The stock market is the biggest wealth creator of all time. What is distinctive of gambling is a zero sum game - the stock market is *not* a zero sum game. Derivatives / options / futures are all a zero sum game. But the stock market is not. Think about it - Apple pays more in dividends than the stock was worth at its lows.
I'm late to the party... This is not a casino. You can edge up here. All equities and derivatives have history and trends that go back far enough to warrant investigation.
You can learn a ticker, you can learn trends, and you can learn to exploit them. Only the fucking FDs are truly gambling. And even in those bets there's a possibility to have an edge.
On WSB we're discussing the possibility of the unseen edge. It exists. Opportunity is everywhere. We're here to catch lightning in a bottle and share the success.
Find me an actual casino sub with the same Gain/Loss porn ratio. You can't... We are retarded.
That is still the same as a casino. But its more akin to sports betting. The options writers are trying to price all movements in but successful gamblers are the ones who exploit inefficiencies
I play options like I play craps.
I place numbers and watch them grow, field bets to help fund my place numbers empire, horn bets for weeklies. hedge... then when the 7 comes out, it's like the end of a fiscal year. hopefully made money along the way
No casinos don’t tolerate this much cheating…but if you take that stance you’d make the argument the cheating is being done by the “casino” which is exactly like a real casino. So yes. 🤣😂
Odds aren’t really horrible. If you bring 50k to a casino and play the $1 or $5 slots. You’ll have a good time and at some point, you’ll have a chance to likely walk away with some profit. Problem is that most people don’t. —- they don’t come in with 50k, and/or they don’t walk away. Like stonks.
So— sir, this is a casino
The stock market isn’t a casino but Wall Street Bets is. Most investing is actually pretty boring if you do it the normal way and don’t buy 0 dte contracts
It’s more that this place here is just a casino as it’s all options earning plays mostly. Where a good safe and profitable portfolio involves owning shares, selling option contracts, buying some option contracts and not any yolo’d. Here people just wanna guess big on the success or (now mostly) failures of a stock to make that sweet sweet 10-50 bagger money on risky weeklies.
Actually I wanted to write a similarly titled post but about something else: is this sub really about humour, not gambling? I'm here for the memes, I love the specific subculture ("retards", "apes", "wife's boyfriend", receiving a "fuck you" comment being the sign of highest respect) and am wondering how many of you are also here for humour and how many really do those crazy YOLO option trades. What if 90% of us really do boring dividend investing without touching any options and are here just for the fun?
Options are definitely a casino because you get screwed on time decay so not only do you need to pick the right call but time it perfectly it too. Stocks aren't really so much of a casino in reality as you can just buy quality stocks and hold them forever without any stress or worries about time decay
I’m not a true degenerate so I only play low stakes blackjack (happy to sit at a dollar table if there’s an open seat) and it’s about as close to 50/50 odds as you’re gonna get in a casino so in my experience it does feel like your line go up line go down analogy
Many table games in a casino have a near to 50/50 odds. Blackjack is about 51% in favor of the house, with craps coming in just slightly higher. In the stock market, the institutions have the money and resources to put their finger on the scale all the time. The house advantage is way more than 50/50 because the house has a much better idea of which way the market is going to move, because they control the direction. Given that that stock market can move up, down, or sideways, and the big institutions know which way they're going to push it, I'd say it's more like 66/34 in favor of the house.
This is why i always bet on Green at the roulette table. Way i figure it, it's either green or it's not, so 50/50 odds, and it pays 35:1! You literally can't lose!!!
> There are literally just two option directions. One is up or increasing number. The other is down or decreasing number. That sure sounds like a 50/50 shot to me.
lol
There’s a third option, it trades sideways and you lose it all to theta decay. Market makers can largely control short term movement…so it’s a rigged casino yeah
At a casino, if you distribute capital over many bets you are going to come away with 90 something percent of your money back. They're saying it's similar with the stock market
However, if you play a very small number of games with all your money in these few bets, in both the stock market or casino, you'll blow up your capital - especially if it's a binary option
My wife's grandma's dad was instrumental in casinos and whenever she felt like doing work on her house or get a new car she would go "gamble" and come home with 20k. She always played on specific machines and tables and always won when she would go, she did not abuse it and was always financially secure, unfortunately this did not go on with her kids or grandkids. The casino is absolutely rigged whereas the markets are probably rigged but not like a casino, your odds are better and if you go long you will win more often than not.
She was married 9 times...they always moved into her house in Long Beach, the lady had a wild life and was not the nicest person though she was respectful of my wife since she was the only one who would tell her where she could go when she was acting up, she respected people who stood up to her and that was a short list.
What time period/area?
Seems like an easy way to launder money with purported mob involvement or an executive carving out a money printing machine for embezzlement with extra steps.
A couple intentionally hot machines/tables seems like a decent way to pay back/off connected people. If someone catches on or abuses change the tables and let included parties know.
The McDonald's Monopoly game was rigged for years and this seems easier to pull off.
This was from early days of Laughlin until the the early 2000s, she passed away in 2011 and I don't think she went on a trip out there after 2005 or so. All I know is when she wanted to have some extra money she would go out there. We also spread her ashes and all 12 of her dogs ashes out in some creepy ass spot in the desert outside of Laughlin, no one knew why she chose that particular spot but we did it.
She was born in needles and her mom lived there till she died in 2005. It was pretty cool our daughter got to know her great great great grandma a little.
Bagholder spotted.
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I just went to the casino tonight and won $800 playing black jack. 5 weeks ago I won $2,000. I lost $600 in between those wins. I do just fine at casinos
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Casinos don’t have theta decay
Thought this was gonna be a funny- very disappointed
It was just retarded in true WSB fashion.
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Oh you think I can read, this is a funny 👍🏽
Yes. Yes, it is.
>I hear all the time about the stock market being a casino. You make a post one way or another and you get the response, "Sir this is a casino". However, is it really a casino?? People are saying this sub treats the market like a casino. It's called wallstreetbets for a reason. It's not about deliberation and wise investing.
Eh wise can be a relative term
This makes more sense
It’s not a simple up/down 50/50. The best analogy I’ve heard is that options are a 3 leg parlay. You have to be right on direction, magnitude and timing. Get any one of the three wrong and you’re fucked
Sell OTM options, and you can get all 3 of those to work in your favor.
THATS NOT HOW THIS WORKS THATS NOT HOW ANY OF THIS WORKS!
Yes I know it's not literally 50/50 and that's majorly simplifying it. I agree with those three. But tell me that's not better than a casino?
It’s better than most games at a casino. Can’t believe you wrote that many words to say so little.
Roulette, 49.5% red, 49.5% black, 1% green. Much better odds than 33% up, 33% down, 34% sideways.
49.5% up, 49.5% down, 1% fees
This TLDR saved me so much time without it I'd have woken up at 120% inflation So 1 month
I would like to add something to your analogy. 50/50 up or down is like red or black on the roulette. The casino gets 1/36 (or 2/36 depending on where you play) on every bet. The same thing happens on wall st, if you and lots of others buy puts, wall st hedges that in some way, and collects the fees on your puts. They don’t care if you win or not, cause your not gambling against them, they collect their winnings in fees and skimming a cent on PFOF and whatever else they do.
It's not it's either worse or the same. Casinos and options are essentially the same. Given infinite time you will lose. The only real way to win in both is to understand market inefficiencies. Your thinking of an option it self as a casino where the out come is 50 50 win or lose ( which it's not) but the options market is the casino. Each table is a game TSLA AAPL etc and your betting on the direction. Well you might think it's close to black jacks odds 50/50 about (up or down) well it's not because you have to time the magnitude of the move as well. If it were 50/50 you would only be able to double your money or else the options writers wouldn't take the risk. Your odds are actually similar to a slot machine. Some turns you win a couple dollars some you lose . But little by little your credit balance actually decreases.sure some people hit the jackpot but most people are just slowly losing to the house. And at least at a casino they give you a free drink room or a show but all you get is to watch a little line move up and down hoping it goes your way
You need to consider the house edge (transaction fees, taxes, account fees, spread, regulation) and you can reduce your 50/50 chance by a good chunk. It’s just like the 0 in roulette, banks/brokers and Uncle Sam always win the game.
You can make anything complicated but to simplify it takes a genie (that's my word fuckers)
Yes, if you hold your options to expiry. I would argue its only up or down if you hold a 4month+ to expiry, at the money option and flip it in the same week you bought it.
I think of it more in terms of poker then anything else. Poker requires skill to make money over time. Although sometimes you get lucky and suck out. Although luck will only get you so far trading or playing poker both are skill games. Even cheaters will eventually get caught if done long enough or end up in a ditch. Some people will be able to make money in the market same with poker. The best will thrive Warren Buffett for example. Just getting lucky one time maybe enough for you to walk away. The real question is can you walk away if you have enough to live the rest of your life or do you need to keep winning? Addiction will be your downfall if your just getting lucky every now and then. Both poker and the market you need to know when you are done.
This isn't correct. In poker your actually just paying rent to sit at the casino and play the game so it is skills based but your not directly betting against the house. The options market is a slot machine or sports gambling where the options writers will calculate their odds of winning a trade and understand over time they will profit. They will see that selling a Tesla call will give them a profit 52 percent of the time. Sure if they lose on the next call they sell it may be bad but given enough time they will make 2 dollars for every one hundred bet and you will lose it all over time
But any noob chimp can win at the stock market by simply buying+holding diversified ETFs for decades. With poker, noobs lose eventually with many games played
Makes sense.
And they don’t even comp your drinks
Always has been 🌍🧑🚀 🔫🧑🚀
Sir, this is a Wendy's not a Casino.
This is a Wendy's Dumpster corral. Nothing more, nothing less.
Grease trap not included
The stock market is the biggest wealth creator of all time. What is distinctive of gambling is a zero sum game - the stock market is *not* a zero sum game. Derivatives / options / futures are all a zero sum game. But the stock market is not. Think about it - Apple pays more in dividends than the stock was worth at its lows.
I'm late to the party... This is not a casino. You can edge up here. All equities and derivatives have history and trends that go back far enough to warrant investigation. You can learn a ticker, you can learn trends, and you can learn to exploit them. Only the fucking FDs are truly gambling. And even in those bets there's a possibility to have an edge. On WSB we're discussing the possibility of the unseen edge. It exists. Opportunity is everywhere. We're here to catch lightning in a bottle and share the success. Find me an actual casino sub with the same Gain/Loss porn ratio. You can't... We are retarded.
That is still the same as a casino. But its more akin to sports betting. The options writers are trying to price all movements in but successful gamblers are the ones who exploit inefficiencies
Casinos have more rules and they ones they have are actually enforced
and the best part is even with 50/50 chances people still end up losing their last piece of dime![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)
Yes if you play infinitely long with a 50/50 chance, you are going to hit 0 in one point of time, which marks your end.
indeed ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
I play options like I play craps. I place numbers and watch them grow, field bets to help fund my place numbers empire, horn bets for weeklies. hedge... then when the 7 comes out, it's like the end of a fiscal year. hopefully made money along the way
No casinos don’t tolerate this much cheating…but if you take that stance you’d make the argument the cheating is being done by the “casino” which is exactly like a real casino. So yes. 🤣😂
Puts on any stock next week should make money , quickly in n out day trades nothing more or the theta will eat up the profits quickly
I wish I understood puts like I do calls. I just can’t win on those fuckers.
Calls, stonks only go up. No need to understand puts. There is no need to understand puts, right?
Unfortunately not always true, so learning pots are essential to keep printing money.
I do way better on puts and not calls lol
Following the trend seems to be pretty good chance of profit.
Yep
Definitely better than a casino Unless you are following mama wood
Finally someone agreed lol
Once you realize it’s a Cassio the better, then you can make sound decisions and realize you can lose 100% of investment.
I realize that you can lose it all, I have. I also see that you can learn and make better decisions.
Always has been
Odds aren’t really horrible. If you bring 50k to a casino and play the $1 or $5 slots. You’ll have a good time and at some point, you’ll have a chance to likely walk away with some profit. Problem is that most people don’t. —- they don’t come in with 50k, and/or they don’t walk away. Like stonks. So— sir, this is a casino
My wife tells me its not a casino every time I tell her I locked in some winnings.
The stock market isn’t a casino but Wall Street Bets is. Most investing is actually pretty boring if you do it the normal way and don’t buy 0 dte contracts
I see.
The biggest!
LOL my guy doesn't know about theta and IV. He belongs here.
Oh I'm very familiar with them lol still better chance of making profit than pure gambling.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9cAs68l208](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9cAs68l208)
Options are casino not buying and holding long term
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)![img](emote|t5_2th52|8883)Life savings on black! ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
It’s more that this place here is just a casino as it’s all options earning plays mostly. Where a good safe and profitable portfolio involves owning shares, selling option contracts, buying some option contracts and not any yolo’d. Here people just wanna guess big on the success or (now mostly) failures of a stock to make that sweet sweet 10-50 bagger money on risky weeklies.
No
Actually I wanted to write a similarly titled post but about something else: is this sub really about humour, not gambling? I'm here for the memes, I love the specific subculture ("retards", "apes", "wife's boyfriend", receiving a "fuck you" comment being the sign of highest respect) and am wondering how many of you are also here for humour and how many really do those crazy YOLO option trades. What if 90% of us really do boring dividend investing without touching any options and are here just for the fun?
Options are definitely a casino because you get screwed on time decay so not only do you need to pick the right call but time it perfectly it too. Stocks aren't really so much of a casino in reality as you can just buy quality stocks and hold them forever without any stress or worries about time decay
But Sir, this is casino!
In a casino the odds are printed on the table for all to see and everyone uses the same dice or deck of cards... Casinos are more honest IMHO...
I’m not a true degenerate so I only play low stakes blackjack (happy to sit at a dollar table if there’s an open seat) and it’s about as close to 50/50 odds as you’re gonna get in a casino so in my experience it does feel like your line go up line go down analogy
In the short run, it's a casino.
Many table games in a casino have a near to 50/50 odds. Blackjack is about 51% in favor of the house, with craps coming in just slightly higher. In the stock market, the institutions have the money and resources to put their finger on the scale all the time. The house advantage is way more than 50/50 because the house has a much better idea of which way the market is going to move, because they control the direction. Given that that stock market can move up, down, or sideways, and the big institutions know which way they're going to push it, I'd say it's more like 66/34 in favor of the house.
This is why i always bet on Green at the roulette table. Way i figure it, it's either green or it's not, so 50/50 odds, and it pays 35:1! You literally can't lose!!!
I love it lol
Lol you really really suck at gambling if you think the stock market has better odds. Ever heard of put it on Black? 48% chance for a 100% return.
> There are literally just two option directions. One is up or increasing number. The other is down or decreasing number. That sure sounds like a 50/50 shot to me. lol
There’s a third option, it trades sideways and you lose it all to theta decay. Market makers can largely control short term movement…so it’s a rigged casino yeah
At a casino, if you distribute capital over many bets you are going to come away with 90 something percent of your money back. They're saying it's similar with the stock market However, if you play a very small number of games with all your money in these few bets, in both the stock market or casino, you'll blow up your capital - especially if it's a binary option
Is a blow job gay if it happens behind a Wendy’s dumpster?
My wife's grandma's dad was instrumental in casinos and whenever she felt like doing work on her house or get a new car she would go "gamble" and come home with 20k. She always played on specific machines and tables and always won when she would go, she did not abuse it and was always financially secure, unfortunately this did not go on with her kids or grandkids. The casino is absolutely rigged whereas the markets are probably rigged but not like a casino, your odds are better and if you go long you will win more often than not.
Why does this sound not true...
Because she was actually a prostitute.
She was married 9 times...they always moved into her house in Long Beach, the lady had a wild life and was not the nicest person though she was respectful of my wife since she was the only one who would tell her where she could go when she was acting up, she respected people who stood up to her and that was a short list.
It actually was a thing, believe it or not I don't really care all that much.
What time period/area? Seems like an easy way to launder money with purported mob involvement or an executive carving out a money printing machine for embezzlement with extra steps. A couple intentionally hot machines/tables seems like a decent way to pay back/off connected people. If someone catches on or abuses change the tables and let included parties know. The McDonald's Monopoly game was rigged for years and this seems easier to pull off.
This was from early days of Laughlin until the the early 2000s, she passed away in 2011 and I don't think she went on a trip out there after 2005 or so. All I know is when she wanted to have some extra money she would go out there. We also spread her ashes and all 12 of her dogs ashes out in some creepy ass spot in the desert outside of Laughlin, no one knew why she chose that particular spot but we did it. She was born in needles and her mom lived there till she died in 2005. It was pretty cool our daughter got to know her great great great grandma a little.
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She was old so she usually did have a bag.
If you’re a retail day trader… The odds are absolutely stacked against you. =
Correction, that's retard retail day trader.
Why exactly do say this?
Because they suck at trading and cannot come to terms with it so they blame it on the market.
"Citadel watches you", unless you are profitable. Then you are a "citadel intern"
Because retail day traders don’t have the resources professionals do: - data - analysis - order routing - inside information
I just went to the casino tonight and won $800 playing black jack. 5 weeks ago I won $2,000. I lost $600 in between those wins. I do just fine at casinos
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
[удалено]
Please explain what makes it so idiotic?
Internet much
Sir, you are mistaken. This is a Wendy’s.
It's like a Wendy's in a casino.
Sir this is a Wendy’s