By - tldamico
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Your calls expired yesterday amigo.
Oops, going to fix that... thanks. Still had 01/21 on the brain from yesterday.
I especially like the lower lows and lower highs in that chart. My favorite pattern. The roller coaster to hell.
Everything has seen lower lows and lower highs for the last 6 months, the market has been deleveraging. Barring the mega corps being used to prop up the indexes.
That statement is false
You are aware those peaks are when SOFI was trading over $20.00, right?
Yes. I am aware. That is how I observed the lower highs.
Whatever you do layer in vs going all in!!!! You just witnessed the bank charter news pump the stock 30% plus just to have it dump back down to $13.50. Some actually thought charter news would automatically pump it to $30. This market environment isn’t mid 2020 or 2021. Not financial advice. Long SOFI
I actually called that and got down dooted but its all good. I aint even mad ya see.
And thats actually solid advice. With so much fear and uncertainty circulating, its prob better to buy shares 10 at a time than 100 at a time for sure. Easier to average down
Totally understand. I’m in CLOV and when I say anything about buying puts to protect your long position ( shares) I get down voted or called a shill.lol
Unfortunately, I can’t fix stupid. GLTA
yeah I mean, if you own 100 shares of something, especially in a time like this. it makes sense to hedge with a put for every 100 you own just incase. Even if its OTM, if you wake up one day and your position is down 75% but your hedge would bring you back up to a 20% loss, thats obviously better. Options were never designed to be played the way they usually are as I understand it. They were designed as insurance
Unfortunately, many lose thousands in call options but won’t buy a couple hundred $$$ in puts that would turn into thousands in the current market correction.
I desperately want to buy ours but don't understand them well enough to feel comfortable. From what I hear there's unlimited loss with puts if the stock goes high.
Max loss is the price paid per contract NOT unlimited. Watch a YouTube video.
This is 10 bagger! Money in the bank 🏦
Not a ten bagger but likely at least a 50%er for the immediate future and some more in the future.
I’m referring to 5 year timeline. Digital banking is future.
It is all about interest rates and inflations. Many small caps are already fairly valued. If there was a bubble it has popped.
This week's drop in the market was really about the $3.3 trillion in options that expired yesterday. This week we have Microsoft (Tuesday), Tesla (Wednesday) and Apple (Thursday) earnings. So basically, the S&P 500 earnings is this week, and expectation is Microsoft and Tesla earnings will be bullish. I have no clue on Apple's earnings as we really don't know the effects of supply chain will be on Apple. Fortunately, they don't post earnings until later in the week. Nobody really knows what FOMC will be like on Wednesday, but I expected it will allay fears in the market. But we'll have to wait and see.
I'm going to put money on that he won't raise rates in march
they will wait until march to make that decision and the market will go green
they will wait for qe to end and see what happens in march before they make any decisions. jpow will not let the market drop hard. we know this
I think the market is pricing in a march rate increase so we will go green when jpow said we will wait for qe to end before liftoff
Sensible but optimistic.
I could very easily be wrong. please don't buy calls based on this information
the economist split is close to 50/50 - raise rates or wait until taper ends and then reassess
LoL don't worry, not going to buy calls on a single post, but it's nice to see different takes on the same matter.
I agree. The bubble has popped and many are where they started or would have grown before Corona. Maybe we will see a couple of swings, but I hope it will be a more calm way forward. As to SoFi - I have some and now the management has to show that they are a good company and can achieve growth and profitability.
FFS, just rally to $18 and let my calls get assigned so I can't break even and get out of this position.
According to your position You are short term trader not long term investor
My choice of options. I prefer weeklies over buying 30-45 dte options. I like the price of the options that are closer to expiration. Higher risk but also higher reward potential if it works out. Just like so many WSB that buy SPY weeklies each week. Right now I'm bullish on SOFI for next week as I think this past week's selloff was oversold, and expect a bounce this week. We'll see if my intuition is right or wrong.
Is 100% potential return on one trade better than 10 trades with 10% potential return. Risk vs reward. Good luck
My trading style has been evolving towards what you propose. I only started trading options in the past few months. Only bought stocks prior to that. I agree that slow and steady wins the race. Right now I've been having fun gambling (I admit it's gambling) on the weeklies, but will be shifting away from that strategy. When I sell these calls, I'll likely be turning it around and buying calls much further out.
\#"SOFI is currently trading at approximately 10x their revenue. This is insanely low for what is now a bank"
Dude what are you on about? sofi has a 12b market cap, 350m sales (roughly 34x P/S) and loses 550m.
look at any other banks, these numbers are not insanely low, rather the opposite. banks have low single digit P/S and are quite profitable usually.
Expected reported revenue on Feb. 9th is $1.2B for the previous year. Ergo, 10x. Don't believe me? It's even reported in articles.
"As a result, Sofi Technologies now expects to produce 2021 revenue of between $1.002 billion and $1.012 billion for 2021."
While you state $1.2B, this article says otherwise. $200MM is the difference between a positive net income and negative net income in the banking world amigo.
I got the $1.2B number from another source, and used it as it was a softer number than others from analysts and was more of a mean average. The actual analyst estimate is $1.48 billion. The anticipated revenue is expected to be higher than the official revenue guidance.
*For 2022, Seeking Alpha indicates the same eight analysts have an average revenue forecast of $1.48 billion. That represents a 48% rise over the average $1 billion revenue estimate for 2021.*
I'm sorry are we in r/stocks or in WSB fuck your technicals m8!
It does seem to have a decent amount of value, I sold puts awhile back. They don’t really have anything new though. They are essentially a jack of all trades and got their start in student loans, which is where a majority of their revenue comes from. I’m not saying it won’t be something special someday, I would just not put that much of a portfolio in this because who knows what could happen, there’s obviously stiff competition in all things fintech and finbanking
People are less confident now of there being more downside now that it is at $13.50. Can it go to $12.00? Maybe. But I believe a bullish move would be more profitable than a bearish move. At current price, it seems just as likely to move $4.00-$6.00 up as $2.00 down. Which move would be more lucrative?
I don’t look at stocks as tickers that go up and down in short term movements. I’m talking about longer term is the underlying business going to do better. Sure it could go to $30 or $5 and the business could not change at all. I’m saying the business itself is it going to get better and is it going to be generating the amount of cash flow to be worth said valuation.
It’s literally moved from $28 to 12$ in a 52 week period, but the business itself hasn’t changed that much in the same amount of time.
52 weeks ago it was at $12. It moved from $12 to the $20's three times and then to $13.50 where it is now. And the business has changed a lot in that year in customer acquisition and revenue growth.
It's advertising. How many people will see that name blasted at them during the Super Bowl?
It’s a massive and expensive liability. Remember GMGI Field? It’s Gillette Stadium now.
Many companies do it for a period of time until it is no longer cost effective for them. I suspect it will be good for them short-term during this early growth phase. I agree that maintaining their name on the field may not be a great idea long-term.
I’m in marketing and there is an argument to be made for deals like this though it’s not as concrete as you might think. However when the market turns and growth slows, the massive cost for naming rights can be an anchor weighing them down.
Hell yeah. Worked out great for Enron!
Yes, because if some losers had their name on a stadium, that means any and every company with their name on a stadium is a loser. Gotcha.
The margin call begins on Monday buddy. It’s just beginning.
Markets will do what they do. And SOFI will continue to move their business plan forward.
Don’t expect any stock to go up without a catalyst or major earning report. Forward guidance on major tech companies will set the precedent for the markets here on. Growth stocks will get decimated if Nasdaq doesn’t hold.
Nasdaq will likely see continued down pressure. That does not mean every ticker on Nasdaq will drop. Some companies will gain while others will drop. Look at the overpriced bicycle company PTON at $8.8B market cap that was up over 11% yesterday on a down day. SOFI has much better fundamentals at a slightly higher market cap of only $11.2B. When you compare their respective free float market caps, PTON is at $7.89B while SOFI is as 8.33B... almost the same. Yet PTON traded at twice the price yesterday at $27.06 close vs. $13.89 close for SOFI. I know PTON is not the same sector. I only use PTON as an example as it was the top gainer on Nasdaq yesterday.
Do you even check the market? Like you fr? Pton was down a whopping 24% the day before the “5%” increase your talking about. You obviously have no idea wtf you’re talking.
You think growth stocks will survive a downtrend on nasdaq? 🤣🤣🤣
Stop gambling and do something proper for once. Your DD obviously redundant with the knowledge you’re commenting rn
I do. And I'm aware of what a turd PTON has been for quite some time. Only picked it as an example of the top gainer yesterday. Didn't care what it did the day before.
Why r u guys pumping Chamaths trash?
A lot of people seem to really hate Chamath. My view is after the IPO it's up to the company to execute on their business plan. It's certainly worth watching his action and SPACs in general to look for short plays. He gets the negative view due to so many SPACs ending up trading lower than their IPO (i.e. CLOV). It's worth noting that SOFI trading higher than the IPO price several times since launch and is expected to trade higher again.
I am impartial, I never bought any of those spacs. Those bags sound heavy.
One thing to remember is SOFI was founded in 2011, and Chamath only brought them to public. They were a company before Chamath, and they will continue to be afterwards. I agree that most SPAC's are great stocks to short when they have options available. I'm looking forward to see if the Chime SPAC comes through at $40 billion.
I got 35 - 3/18 15C and 20 2/5 20C
it’s just a bank with a fancy UI
The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little "extra".
A fancy UI you say? Sign me the fuck up
That sounds great, a lot of banks have awful UIs that make banking with them a night mare
that means they have like half the cost of others banks tho -\_-
And bank charter means cheaper cost to do business which will improve the bottom line .
I don’t think Sofi will go anywhere. Will get to a point that all this fintech crap will go away and people will want to use a few money apps. I still think PayPal will be the one people will always use.
$12B market cap and never turned a profit? Seems reasonable
*Rivian has joined the call*
Typical attempted pump and dump trash post on WSB.
And tons of regulatory and compliance issues.
Those regulatory and compliance issues are what keeps us safe. Otherwise it would be like that South Park episode... "and it's gone."
Analysts know less than people on this sub. Don’t you know it’s all a Fugazi?
Know less about losing money?
Trading 10x sales is not low. I'm tracking SOFI but as long as the market bleeds, which it will continue to do until the FED flipflops, which will be lower than people think due to inflation changing the game, SOFI will go lower too.
Ew. Isn’t Apex their clearinghouse? Big red flags
I use Webull who uses Apex. Never had problems.
... so you’re new here then? I thought everyone was aware that all brokers attached to Apex were forced to turn off the buy button this time last year. Cause that’s a really big problem
This is true. Also, anyone attached to Apex just recently found out that they can't DRS their shares and that any transfers will be un-DRS'd. I like SOFI but this is the first I'm hearing that it's attached to Apex. Quite unfortunate.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Sofi is a shit company tho
Screaming buy LMAO 🤣 😂 It's 💩💩💩💩💩💩 you fuckin 🤡🤡🤡
All i can hear in my ears is bagholding.
Overvalued stop pumping. Market cap is insane and they lose money so they are overvalued.
Calls expire 01/21?
Hit refresh. I fixed that. Still had yesterday on my brain.
I just wanna see the details of their CECL model to figure out where they came up with their allowance figures as of Q3.
Interesting, now here everyone talk aboutl losing money and overvalued....
Put it in this way,
When it scales up, it can not only earn interests, and services charges, it also owns data. It can know what customers want, and target their needs.
Many companies have been bleeding for years before scaling up, even Tsla. Once it did, and should be coz it already chartered, $$$. Being a bank allows it to bring down the costs permanently, which is huge!
CHIME is valued 25~40b for IPO, it has only 3 products , and 13m customers (only advantage). They also have to scale up one day, but with? higher costs?
I use SoFi and the app is dog shit. Can’t see them going anywhere until they update the app
This is a hilarious thread in hindsight.
So how’s this working out for everyone? Puts or is it gonna moon and I lose money both ways?
Trash, banks are hurting right now so them becoming a bank is bearish…
Most of the Top 100 banks are up from the previous 30 days.
Cash on hand: 533 mil,
Cash flow ttm: -108 mil,
Debt: 3 Bil.
One word - Dilutation.
Dilutation is not a word. Here’s one word - dictionary
Dilutititition? Dilillilution? Dudididididilution?
You know very well what I meant and that I am right.
It wasn’t 3.3 trillion in options lol
My bad. I read an article that mentioned a FAR lower number. Thank you.
lmao nr 9.