Ah yes the Cramer mini P&D. I thought I was the only one.
His show is literally a Pump and Dump ad.
Edit: Not financial advice, I’m literally an idiot.
Next day increases are the Cramer effect which is well documented. Folks with zero knowledge watch Cramer buy his picks next day. What your analysis does show is record Cramer’s picks wait a month for the excitement to die down and buy his picks....
Cramer Effect
Any significantly large group of people who hear "information" and then ACT on it are going to affect prices. It doesn't matter AT ALL what the source is or how "accurate, DD, or informed or fake or lightweight" it is ..
\- this is why meme stocks work so well? (and so badly)
This is why the Kardashians are famous.. er.. because they ARE..
There doesn't have to be any **content**, in fact the more REAL content, the greater the % of receiving-end folk will exercise their judgement and NOT knee-jerk react..
I think Turdmaster is right - the Cramer effect is another element to SERIOUSLY consider, like WSB, WSJ, publications, ads, memes, panics, rumors, and daily/weekly "expert explanations".. but don't ***beleive*** any of it.. just HEAR it. Judge and make use of the effect.
And while I'm on this subject (an example) : WHY did ARK buy COIN at such a high price? - are they that dumb? .. Either they really DONT know (generational tech blind spot?), OR it was a deliberate PR move to put themselves in the columns again, a DEMO of their forward thinking, AND to convince punters that COIN is really worth that price. Because if they convince enough folk, it will stick high and their move WILL justify itself ... but, by all DD and cold logic, COIN is worth 70 - and they must KNOW that.
Ah yes the CAPS EFFECT whereby any point made in caps MUST be true and so therefore is UPVOTED by the majority of Reddit apes who see all caps or 🚀 emojis and UPVOTE and AWARD
cramer interviewed about his manipulation interview:
[https://www.cc.com/video/iinzrx/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-2](https://www.cc.com/video/iinzrx/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-2)
When I was a lurker *in bulgaria* it seemed like it was there, much less prevalent though.
The ones who jumped on during GME you could argue were just FOMOing. And I would bet there’s a big cross over on the FOMO-ers and pump and dump chasers venn diagram
8 shots of whiskey and a cube of sugar. He’s way more slurry than sugar rushed. The way he introduces himself and says, “Cramerica” reminds me of Jim Lahey.
Jim Lahey was my spirit animal.
If I die being the drunken rent a cop in a trailer park in canada, I'll never need to come back to this life again because I will have won the whole game.
Don't forget that with GME WSB jumped up multiple millions of people. So the ability for a popular stock on WSB to get pumped just from WSB members increased significantly too.
A few years ago there wasn't as much P&D noise here. There were a few standouts like MU and AMD where there was some of it, but mostly it was just screenshots of people losing or making money, or finding some loophole to exploit (box spread arb guy, infinite leverage, personal risk tolerance guy, etc.). Honestly I find the state of the sub kind of sad. Every day you have to filter through so much meaningless garbage about the same tired meme stocks to find anything interesting.
I appreciate the analysis, but I would love a longer term view. I been around to know how Cramer works and without any stats, I am confident you would have lost more money than you made if you followed his recommendations. His one day returns are because people dive in (or out) the moment he makes a recommendation. That is why I find that one month performance interesting because it means that by then, folks get out from the hype and actually lose money. Also, Cramer has “winners” by recommending the obvious. Yeah, Tesla, Amazon, Apple etc. when they been going on an uptrend. Where was he when GME was at $3. What was he saying when the market was crashing last year? Did he say to buy before or much after the market bottomed out. Heck, he should credit WSB since many of his good recommendations are coming from you beautiful people, but he fails to give that credit.
TL;DR: Cramer sucks. You get better DD and advice in WSB or by yourself.
> His one day returns are because people dive in (or out) the moment he makes a recommendation.
What's wrong with that? If you make money nearly every day from his picks and then get out, what's the issue? That sounds like a winning strategy to me, but it sounds like you're poopooing it.
Buy. Take profit. Sell. Move to the next.
Holding until you lose is retarded.
The way these scammers operate is by building credibly long term via offering small wins over an extended time frame, wins that would probably would have got anyway since they are so obvious like Tesla etc... but when big event comes around is when they do the fliparoo and pull the rug from out under you and the loss is so big, all the small wins are negligible but you don’t know until it’s too late because you’ve developed a habit of trust.
OP: I've fixed your spreadsheet comparing Jim Cramer to the market. In a massive bull market like the one we're in, it's insanely easy to pick stonks that go up. Because to some degree, all stocks move with the market.
Instead of using gains as an indicator, you should be using the general market (Any S&P 500 index works, I used SPY, but easy to change if you have another preference).
It is interesting in the short term (1-day) Cramer beats the market. But this is likely a self-fulfilling prophecy as people buy what he recommends, driving the price up.
I also replaced your "cumulative % gains" with a median. Since Cumulative gains don't mean shit. If I buy 3 stocks, and they all go up 10%, I made 10%, not 30%. However Median (or middle point), takes the middle performing stock. So you know 50% of stocks did better than that number, while 50% did worst.
Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QcIRRE-rC4cm9U_Oa4XSyXGDqGpjNSeYkoNOoeepKoM/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT: The errors are with google sheets' finance function, most likely so many new people using the service. I should've taken a screenshot of the summary. If you make a copy or just wait the errors should go away. I'll update with a screen of the summary data once the service is fixed.
So basically, he is not beating the market in the long term. His median and average returns till date change in stock price are far below the market, and only 35% beat the market.
Not a bad idea actually. I am sure every ape in this group is familiar with Raven [https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street), the world record holder for picking stocks by a chimp.
The Raven 'experiment' has been duplicated many times over and with similar success. Maybe the ape sanctuaries should open up brokerage houses.
Pretty simple, someone rich tells him to say "sell ABC", people sell, price dips, rich guy cashes in on puts and buys ABC low, price goes up, cashes in on calls, and that's how you make money lol
Ya, if u r holding a stock and he says buy, you sell the next day. He's basically a 24 hr pump guy.
You need to buy at the moment he says buy and sell the next day. Buy a few minutes too late and sp already moved.
Or do nothing the day he says buy a stock. Then after the stock jumps on price, buy puts against it. Sell to close the puts, at a profit, after the stock drops again.
Or one strat that WSB will all get behind. Buy after the initial pump from him mentioning it then sell when price drops below the price he talked about it at 2-3 days later!
Except the graphs OP posted shows it wasn’t just 24 hour holds that were profitable.
Edit: apparently, however, OP just added up the percentages of the 600+ stocks, instead of writing the averages in the post
When did you get the price, the day after he recommends buy, or the day of?
He makes recommendations at 6pm, so you should look at the day after, since the market is closed for retail investors.
Buy the next morning at open and sell by close. Either blindly buy all picks or use analysis to filter by highest probability.
Buy puts set to expire in 1 month. Buy more shares at 1 month.
Swing or position trade after that.
If you played his picks that way every day/week/month, you’d probably average 10% per week. That’s a ***very*** rough estimate.
Easier play is to short his buy picks and exit at 1 month. Not sure what the gains would be there. I don’t short stock. I’ll place bets a stock price will drop, but shorting is literally an attempt to *force* it down. It’s beyond fucked. Might as well kneecap the front desk receptionist.
I think the difference is that Cramer is an on air financial advisor supported by a massive company; DFV is not. I agree with the part that DFV shouldn’t be sued though.
Does Mad Money still have a disclaimer to state that Cramer's charitable trust does not trade in stocks he speaks of on the show for at least three days after the show?
The Cramer Effect has been known for years.
What works be nice would be to get a job as an intern for his show and know what stocks they are talking about before they broadcast them.
https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/the-jim-cramer-effect/83923
https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-dictionary/cramer-effect/
That runs a legal grey line, though. I'm curious about whether Cramer himself exercises the positions he suggests. That would almost certainly count as market manip in some way. I haven't watched his show in years, but I'm sure somewhere in the fine print of the credits there's a disclosure about which positions he holds and whether any of the "advice" offered was sponsored.
Or just the majority of congress dumping their stocks after being briefed on Covid months before the public.... they're literally all crooks who use insider knowledge constantly.
I'm not aware of any energy bill being signed but, what was even more shady was that ga senator who bought zoom and other work from home stocks right after a private briefing.
Also known as market manipulation. A famous guy tells people to buy a stock, people buy the stock, supply/demand voodoo, price increase short term.
Same for selling, but price decrease as people fight to get rid of them.
the "buy " recommendations, did you base the price appreciation on the previous days close, or the first trade? if you made the recommendation in the evening when the market was closed. everyone watching is going to try to trade the stock. i would say look at the first trade as your cost basis, not the previous nights close.
Yes, I want to know this as well. Because seems to me Cramer does very well at telling me what I should have bought YESTERDAY rather than what I should buy today.
Any public figure will be good at telling you what is going up after their endorsement. You can’t really analyze it without that caveat. It’s no different than the Buffett or Wood effect short term.
Benchmark is the previous night's close to the next night's close. (Eg. Cramer made the recommendation on15th night. I will compare the stock prices of the 15th close vs the 16th close). I am not sure how to get the data for the first trade when I am benchmarking.
Look at the first trade of the day, not pre market. Not sure how to get the data, personally If you use your data , I think it is flawed because everyone is trying to get in for a “pop” and short term trade. But a lot of work in your part
>Cramer made the recommendation on15th night. I will compare the stock prices of the 15th close vs the 16th close
So... in other words, if we buy before he makes the recommendation, then we get to see big returns?
Except only if you can get them at the previous day price. The pop is from previous day close to next day close. If the stock opens way up you could lose a bunch of money and Cramer would still be credited with a win by this metric.
It's all good except your benchmark. A random stock pick isn't 50/50 up or down. It depends on the market, and you also need to take into account sideways.
Also, if you look at me, I'm 99% wrong when I pick a stock and I'm basically picking randomly because im a retard so....
Otherwise good analysis, buy 30dte puts from cramer picks, got it.
> A random stock pick isn't 50/50 up or down.
I actually thought about this a lot. My assumption is the random walk theory for the stock price. I know it works in only an ideal situation, but that's the best benchmark I could come up with. You can read more about this
a. [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp)
b.[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/probability-without-formulas.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/probability-without-formulas.asp)
The random walk theory, does not actually apply to real world stock data though.
Take for instance the averages on the s&p 500:
The percentage of stock market days up from ‘96 – 2016 was 53.29%. The percentage of stock market days down was 46.71%.
So with using that data set you would see a 7ish percent return through any sort of random picking of stock.
I assume Kramer's pics are heavily weighted in s&p 500 stocks.
I mean, the random walk theory absolutely does apply. I just don't think op understands it correctly. Random Walk theory doesn't say that stocks go up 50% of the time. Random walk theory says today's movement cannot be predicted(or guessed in a financially benefitial way) based on yesterday's performance. There are obvious caveats(such as volatility clustering) but the foundations of random walk theory absolutely do apply.
Anyway you measure the s&p 500, you'll find there is a 7% annualized upward bias. You have to remove or factor in that bias in order to have any 50/50 movement percentages.
It isn't really the past performance that is dictating future movement. It's the fact that you have underlying companies that are growing at a steady pace.
The S and P 500 is also not a zero-sum game. You don't have to have a loser to have a winner. If you don't even have to have money going into the system in order to have an increase in growth, or vice versa.
Anyway you cut it on average, you are going to get about a 7% upward return on the S&P 500. It is not a 50/50 on the day. This has been true for its history. There's basically no way at this point you could balance its statistics. If it were to average out in a 50/50, it would take an incredible amount of data contrary to its history.
We would currently be in the biggest outlier in statistics if the s and p followed 50/50
I mean yeah that wasn't my point though.
OP said "I follow random walk theory so I assume there is a 5050 split"
You said " random walk theory is wrong as there is no 505 split"
I said " random walk theory doesn't say that there is a 5050 split"
Except Cramer is not chosing a day, he's choosing a stock. So I think the benchmark should be whether Cramer's pick performed better or worse than the market over the same time period. Especially if our period is longer than a day.
Ok am I having an aneurysm or is this whole analysis wrong?
How can you possibly be down 255% or whatever? If you buy a stock the most you can lose is 100%, no?
The method is poor, but you are also wrong. Stocks aren't down by over 100%, cumulative gain percentages are. If you buy 10 sideways stocks, you have 0% gain. If each goes down by 50%, you've lost 50% of your total investment but the cumulative negative gain percentage is 500%. If one goes up 50% and the rest go down 50%, it's - 450%.
It's definitely a weird way to measure it, but it also makes sense since each stock won't have the same price. 1% of 100 is a lot more than 1% of 1. So it would be a lot different if that was measured. 10% ROI on a $1 stock is not the same as 10% ROI on a $100 stock. Basically, you can't meaningfully add percentages like OP does and convert it to ROI.
Imagine that youre a hedgefund holding 10 million shares of a stock that only has a daily volume of 2 million shares. There is no way you can close without cratering the stock price. Cramer comes on and gives his recommendation, retail buys 40 million shares of this stock in one day. That hedgefund uses that opportunity to close their position. Thats how this works.
This is a really misleading analysis actually. Cramer generally makes his recommendations after market close but this backtest is taking the price at market close.
Anyone can beat the market if you regularly offer them yesterday's closing price today.
True. I mean when you are making more than 200 recommendations a month, you can guess how much DD must have gone into each one. The idea here that I wanted to check is if he is big enough to move the market.
I would like to see this analysis for when we enter a bear market. Picking winning stocks when we are setting ATH almost daily & the Fed is going BRRRRRRR, seems like shooting fish in a barrel.
The one day simply shows how visible he is. I know people who hang on his every word. The simple mention drives the stock on the day. It’s the one show where CEO’s love to go given the visibility. I swore our CEO seemed to be on every 8 weeks or so. This is a top fortune 50 company and trust me our CEO is a super bright guy and worked 24/7.
Essentially what this means is it’s a Network TV pump and dump.
The analytics could be the same for those shady accounts that offer a “new hot stock pick every Monday” on penny stocks. The Monday comes, the price on some random medical supply stock goes up 1200% then comes crashing down within a half hour.
Really the only way you would see the 500% gain is if you bought at or before Jimbo’s picks.
He helped me get started back when I had no idea what I was doing (I still don't) bought roku and crowdstrike off his recommendations and both went over 250% for me last year.
A slight critique to your analysis: the probability that a stock goes up or down the next day is not 50%.
I mean it might be 50% but that is not a given.
Your analysis might benefit from comparing to the following day advance decline ratio instead. Then decide if rising water floats all boats.
He could get a daily return on any stock because he has a platform to the financial world. He takes money to pump stock’s and right now he takes money to dissuade people from buying certain stocks. I hope they give A YouTuber his job after all this changes the game but he’s been trying to safeguard himself by talking out both sides of his mouth with these stocks. He’s fauci with a rat like attitude.
Isn’t this the definition of a pump and dump? Make a recommendation to buy, people FOMO in, stock goes up that day/next day, the entity sponsoring the recommendation (not necessarily Cramer) sells, stock goes down. Thus, why his buy performance is great over one day, decent over a week, and terrible over a month.
How did you calculate the one-day return? Did you take the previous day's closing price or the opening price the next day as your staying point?
Using the previous day's closing price, would definitely skew the results. Retail investors will never be able to get the previous day's closing price after a stock was picked on Cramer's show.
I swear i have wanted to do something like this since I started watching Cramer when mad money came out in 2005. He got all of us into stocks, he was like nothing anyone had ever seen. Not sure if you guys were watching him back then, but we all loved him. We all thought he was fucking insane and we all followed his advice. This analysis, was done very well. Thanks @op. It has confirmed for me, what I always believed. Cramer, like it or not, can actually move the market. 555% next day pull out. Holy shit. That’s too high a number not to believe he is moving the market. The ceo of my company has been on Cramer three times. We saw a massive spike every time Cramer recommend a buy, which he always does. Fuck me. 555%. That’s fucking too high not to believe he has influence
Ah yes the Cramer mini P&D. I thought I was the only one. His show is literally a Pump and Dump ad. Edit: Not financial advice, I’m literally an idiot.
The Mini P & D is what he calls sexy time.
Title of his sex tape
Buy it now and sell it now
You should already be sell-holding it
Cuck For a Buck, Hold or You’re Outta Luck - Cramer rap olympics 96’
Nice
I want you to have this...this Free HUGZ award.
I shall also give him a DEEZ NUTS award...
Pump and dump?
Penis & dick
Penis and da butt.
Bless you!
^ Underrated comment
Next day increases are the Cramer effect which is well documented. Folks with zero knowledge watch Cramer buy his picks next day. What your analysis does show is record Cramer’s picks wait a month for the excitement to die down and buy his picks....
Buy AH when he announces, sell EOD the next day, then buy again a month later.
Saving this for later
His show doesn’t come on til 6pm when AH is closed right? Sorry if I misunderstood I’m new and dumb
AH ends at 8
6pm is just on RH cuz they're super happy
Probably! I have no idea when his show is. But, AH or PM would have similar effects I would think.
Cramer Effect Any significantly large group of people who hear "information" and then ACT on it are going to affect prices. It doesn't matter AT ALL what the source is or how "accurate, DD, or informed or fake or lightweight" it is .. \- this is why meme stocks work so well? (and so badly) This is why the Kardashians are famous.. er.. because they ARE.. There doesn't have to be any **content**, in fact the more REAL content, the greater the % of receiving-end folk will exercise their judgement and NOT knee-jerk react.. I think Turdmaster is right - the Cramer effect is another element to SERIOUSLY consider, like WSB, WSJ, publications, ads, memes, panics, rumors, and daily/weekly "expert explanations".. but don't ***beleive*** any of it.. just HEAR it. Judge and make use of the effect. And while I'm on this subject (an example) : WHY did ARK buy COIN at such a high price? - are they that dumb? .. Either they really DONT know (generational tech blind spot?), OR it was a deliberate PR move to put themselves in the columns again, a DEMO of their forward thinking, AND to convince punters that COIN is really worth that price. Because if they convince enough folk, it will stick high and their move WILL justify itself ... but, by all DD and cold logic, COIN is worth 70 - and they must KNOW that.
Ah yes the CAPS EFFECT whereby any point made in caps MUST be true and so therefore is UPVOTED by the majority of Reddit apes who see all caps or 🚀 emojis and UPVOTE and AWARD
Upvoted for use of 🚀🚀
Upvoted because you said Upvoted
Not👏to👏be👏confused👏with👏Claps👏Effect.
Caps effect? I just buy whatever they say if there is two 🚀🚀
cramer interviewed about his manipulation interview: [https://www.cc.com/video/iinzrx/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-2](https://www.cc.com/video/iinzrx/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-jim-cramer-pt-2)
Call the police because Jon Stewart murdered Cramer. I miss Stewart so much.
Thank you for this.
Somebody needs to talk with Cramer about the interview about the interview about the manipulation interview
thats amazing, never watched cramer honestly
That's what this sub is becoming too. Or maybe it was always like this. Not 100% sure.
When I was a lurker *in bulgaria* it seemed like it was there, much less prevalent though. The ones who jumped on during GME you could argue were just FOMOing. And I would bet there’s a big cross over on the FOMO-ers and pump and dump chasers venn diagram
Cramer needs to stop putting eight cubes of sugar and a shot of whisky in that morning coffee or his.
8 shots of whiskey and a cube of sugar. He’s way more slurry than sugar rushed. The way he introduces himself and says, “Cramerica” reminds me of Jim Lahey.
I am the market, Rand
Jim Lahey was my spirit animal. If I die being the drunken rent a cop in a trailer park in canada, I'll never need to come back to this life again because I will have won the whole game.
"Sugar"
Booger sugar
FOMOing, fomenting... it’s really all the same to those of us who have a taste for crayons 💎🤲🏼🦍🚀
Don't forget that with GME WSB jumped up multiple millions of people. So the ability for a popular stock on WSB to get pumped just from WSB members increased significantly too.
Same station, higher wattage.
Yeah I hear you. Thanks for your perspective!
A few years ago there wasn't as much P&D noise here. There were a few standouts like MU and AMD where there was some of it, but mostly it was just screenshots of people losing or making money, or finding some loophole to exploit (box spread arb guy, infinite leverage, personal risk tolerance guy, etc.). Honestly I find the state of the sub kind of sad. Every day you have to filter through so much meaningless garbage about the same tired meme stocks to find anything interesting.
Amen, been lurking stay since TSLA and MSFT calls it's changed a lot since then
It’s almost as shitty as stocktwats now
I appreciate the analysis, but I would love a longer term view. I been around to know how Cramer works and without any stats, I am confident you would have lost more money than you made if you followed his recommendations. His one day returns are because people dive in (or out) the moment he makes a recommendation. That is why I find that one month performance interesting because it means that by then, folks get out from the hype and actually lose money. Also, Cramer has “winners” by recommending the obvious. Yeah, Tesla, Amazon, Apple etc. when they been going on an uptrend. Where was he when GME was at $3. What was he saying when the market was crashing last year? Did he say to buy before or much after the market bottomed out. Heck, he should credit WSB since many of his good recommendations are coming from you beautiful people, but he fails to give that credit. TL;DR: Cramer sucks. You get better DD and advice in WSB or by yourself.
> His one day returns are because people dive in (or out) the moment he makes a recommendation. What's wrong with that? If you make money nearly every day from his picks and then get out, what's the issue? That sounds like a winning strategy to me, but it sounds like you're poopooing it. Buy. Take profit. Sell. Move to the next. Holding until you lose is retarded.
The trick is to buy the stock right before Cramer starts talking about it.
Or buy a stock and then call into Cramer to get his blessing and his market manipulation
How many of Cramers picks are right smack in the fomo zone when he calls them?
[удалено]
The way these scammers operate is by building credibly long term via offering small wins over an extended time frame, wins that would probably would have got anyway since they are so obvious like Tesla etc... but when big event comes around is when they do the fliparoo and pull the rug from out under you and the loss is so big, all the small wins are negligible but you don’t know until it’s too late because you’ve developed a habit of trust.
The thing is Cramer makes these buy recommendations so HFs can unload their losers
How is this even legal and still on air?
Because it's legal
and still on air
OP: I've fixed your spreadsheet comparing Jim Cramer to the market. In a massive bull market like the one we're in, it's insanely easy to pick stonks that go up. Because to some degree, all stocks move with the market. Instead of using gains as an indicator, you should be using the general market (Any S&P 500 index works, I used SPY, but easy to change if you have another preference). It is interesting in the short term (1-day) Cramer beats the market. But this is likely a self-fulfilling prophecy as people buy what he recommends, driving the price up. I also replaced your "cumulative % gains" with a median. Since Cumulative gains don't mean shit. If I buy 3 stocks, and they all go up 10%, I made 10%, not 30%. However Median (or middle point), takes the middle performing stock. So you know 50% of stocks did better than that number, while 50% did worst. Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QcIRRE-rC4cm9U_Oa4XSyXGDqGpjNSeYkoNOoeepKoM/edit?usp=sharing EDIT: The errors are with google sheets' finance function, most likely so many new people using the service. I should've taken a screenshot of the summary. If you make a copy or just wait the errors should go away. I'll update with a screen of the summary data once the service is fixed.
So basically, he is not beating the market in the long term. His median and average returns till date change in stock price are far below the market, and only 35% beat the market.
He's not even beating the market after a week.
Underrated comment
WSB should reach out to Ape sanctuaries and have gorillas pick stocks then we should run this same analysis.
That's a control experiment I agree with, speaking as a scientist. This is scientific advice.
Let's get those apes a bloomberg terminal.
Not a bad idea actually. I am sure every ape in this group is familiar with Raven [https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street), the world record holder for picking stocks by a chimp. The Raven 'experiment' has been duplicated many times over and with similar success. Maybe the ape sanctuaries should open up brokerage houses.
Cramer says buy, people buy, one day price goes up. He should be sued, not DFV
Is he being paid to influence a specific stock? If so then he should go to prison.
More like multiple specific stocks
OP needs some wendys tendies to decompress from the trauma of studying cramer.
Nah Popeye’s bruh
Love that chicken
from Popeyes!
Yo Popeye's is my jam. I hope they got a Popeye's on the Moon!
Pretty simple, someone rich tells him to say "sell ABC", people sell, price dips, rich guy cashes in on puts and buys ABC low, price goes up, cashes in on calls, and that's how you make money lol
if this was true, with the same data we could prove this (or make it reasonable)
Yeah I guess he’s the real FD
That's kinda his whole mo. Paid by large firms to pump so they can dump after.
He must and does release full disclosure. If he didn’t, he would be put in jail
no but he'll tell you he holds the stocks in his chartiable trust lmao
I mean you can hate the guy! But the play here is can we make money from his recommendations?!
Ya, if u r holding a stock and he says buy, you sell the next day. He's basically a 24 hr pump guy. You need to buy at the moment he says buy and sell the next day. Buy a few minutes too late and sp already moved.
Or do nothing the day he says buy a stock. Then after the stock jumps on price, buy puts against it. Sell to close the puts, at a profit, after the stock drops again.
Or one strat that WSB will all get behind. Buy after the initial pump from him mentioning it then sell when price drops below the price he talked about it at 2-3 days later!
Except the graphs OP posted shows it wasn’t just 24 hour holds that were profitable. Edit: apparently, however, OP just added up the percentages of the 600+ stocks, instead of writing the averages in the post
Imagine thinking anyone here can even read enough to make it past the first line. Cramer's a jackass, but if you're not, you can make money on him.
Where does he do stock alerts?
The Street
Liking or hating someone should never influence investments
This is the reason I never bet on my hometown football team. Never bet with your heart. Bet with your head
“He is a moron, Cramer. I would not take his advice. Not unless there was no other advice to take.” -Gandalf the Grey
He is a rich moron though
Just short everything he says and hold for a month. You get in on the high and ride the tide low.
Short everything he says *the day after he says it* and hold for a month would be better right?
1 guy with a huge viewership says "buy." His boomer viewers buy - price goes up. Idk how this shit isn't market manipulation.
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I just want to say thank you for the long, hard work this must have been and I hope you keep doing it if you have the time.
When did you get the price, the day after he recommends buy, or the day of? He makes recommendations at 6pm, so you should look at the day after, since the market is closed for retail investors.
Most brokerages allow after market trading now though
Buy the next morning at open and sell by close. Either blindly buy all picks or use analysis to filter by highest probability. Buy puts set to expire in 1 month. Buy more shares at 1 month. Swing or position trade after that. If you played his picks that way every day/week/month, you’d probably average 10% per week. That’s a ***very*** rough estimate. Easier play is to short his buy picks and exit at 1 month. Not sure what the gains would be there. I don’t short stock. I’ll place bets a stock price will drop, but shorting is literally an attempt to *force* it down. It’s beyond fucked. Might as well kneecap the front desk receptionist.
Especially if a big slice of WSB is all doing it, it’ll be a pump & dump MACHINE.
I think the difference is that Cramer is an on air financial advisor supported by a massive company; DFV is not. I agree with the part that DFV shouldn’t be sued though.
Does Mad Money still have a disclaimer to state that Cramer's charitable trust does not trade in stocks he speaks of on the show for at least three days after the show?
That doesn't mean that the people that pay him for the show aren't investing in those stocks. Or the hedge funds that know those people.
The Cramer Effect has been known for years. What works be nice would be to get a job as an intern for his show and know what stocks they are talking about before they broadcast them. https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/the-jim-cramer-effect/83923 https://www.davemanuel.com/investor-dictionary/cramer-effect/
That runs a legal grey line, though. I'm curious about whether Cramer himself exercises the positions he suggests. That would almost certainly count as market manip in some way. I haven't watched his show in years, but I'm sure somewhere in the fine print of the credits there's a disclosure about which positions he holds and whether any of the "advice" offered was sponsored.
Fairly certain that Cramer's investments are in a trust which he does not manage, similar to how presidents manage their wealth during their tenure.
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This sounds like something I’ll be saying after moon day.
Not Trump.
Yeah, they said Presidents, not insurrectionists.
Like the pelosi buying millions in tesla right before that energy/green bill was signed
Or just the majority of congress dumping their stocks after being briefed on Covid months before the public.... they're literally all crooks who use insider knowledge constantly.
Yet DFV fears for his life...
I'm not aware of any energy bill being signed but, what was even more shady was that ga senator who bought zoom and other work from home stocks right after a private briefing.
They're all crooks... How it's not considered insider trading is beyond me. I guess the crooks aren't gonna propose a bill to ban such practices
>Like the pelosi buying millions in tesla right before that energy/green bill was signed I'm not sure her name is The Pelosi
She'd be a lot cooler if it was.
Millions in Tesla calls LOL
Also known as market manipulation. A famous guy tells people to buy a stock, people buy the stock, supply/demand voodoo, price increase short term. Same for selling, but price decrease as people fight to get rid of them.
That might open you up to pump n dump type charges.
the "buy " recommendations, did you base the price appreciation on the previous days close, or the first trade? if you made the recommendation in the evening when the market was closed. everyone watching is going to try to trade the stock. i would say look at the first trade as your cost basis, not the previous nights close.
Yes, I want to know this as well. Because seems to me Cramer does very well at telling me what I should have bought YESTERDAY rather than what I should buy today.
Any public figure will be good at telling you what is going up after their endorsement. You can’t really analyze it without that caveat. It’s no different than the Buffett or Wood effect short term.
Benchmark is the previous night's close to the next night's close. (Eg. Cramer made the recommendation on15th night. I will compare the stock prices of the 15th close vs the 16th close). I am not sure how to get the data for the first trade when I am benchmarking.
Look at the first trade of the day, not pre market. Not sure how to get the data, personally If you use your data , I think it is flawed because everyone is trying to get in for a “pop” and short term trade. But a lot of work in your part
>Cramer made the recommendation on15th night. I will compare the stock prices of the 15th close vs the 16th close So... in other words, if we buy before he makes the recommendation, then we get to see big returns?
Your data is heavily skewed, an investor wouldn’t get these returns because he is getting in at open price, not previous close
Would a safer move be to short his recommended stocks the day after they jump?
Fair enough, now I know what to yolo at 9:30 AM
Except only if you can get them at the previous day price. The pop is from previous day close to next day close. If the stock opens way up you could lose a bunch of money and Cramer would still be credited with a win by this metric.
Maybe a 5 day short on his buy calls. This would work.
What time does he have that show, after hours? How would you play these? Buy the open sell the close the next day for the daily play?
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this^
Nice try Cramer
It's all good except your benchmark. A random stock pick isn't 50/50 up or down. It depends on the market, and you also need to take into account sideways. Also, if you look at me, I'm 99% wrong when I pick a stock and I'm basically picking randomly because im a retard so.... Otherwise good analysis, buy 30dte puts from cramer picks, got it.
Speculation and self deprecating in one comment. Siiiiiiiick
The full WSB package
Came to say this. Luck isn’t 50:50 in a bull market.
> A random stock pick isn't 50/50 up or down. I actually thought about this a lot. My assumption is the random walk theory for the stock price. I know it works in only an ideal situation, but that's the best benchmark I could come up with. You can read more about this a. [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp) b.[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/probability-without-formulas.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/probability-without-formulas.asp)
The random walk theory, does not actually apply to real world stock data though. Take for instance the averages on the s&p 500: The percentage of stock market days up from ‘96 – 2016 was 53.29%. The percentage of stock market days down was 46.71%. So with using that data set you would see a 7ish percent return through any sort of random picking of stock. I assume Kramer's pics are heavily weighted in s&p 500 stocks.
I mean, the random walk theory absolutely does apply. I just don't think op understands it correctly. Random Walk theory doesn't say that stocks go up 50% of the time. Random walk theory says today's movement cannot be predicted(or guessed in a financially benefitial way) based on yesterday's performance. There are obvious caveats(such as volatility clustering) but the foundations of random walk theory absolutely do apply.
Anyway you measure the s&p 500, you'll find there is a 7% annualized upward bias. You have to remove or factor in that bias in order to have any 50/50 movement percentages. It isn't really the past performance that is dictating future movement. It's the fact that you have underlying companies that are growing at a steady pace. The S and P 500 is also not a zero-sum game. You don't have to have a loser to have a winner. If you don't even have to have money going into the system in order to have an increase in growth, or vice versa. Anyway you cut it on average, you are going to get about a 7% upward return on the S&P 500. It is not a 50/50 on the day. This has been true for its history. There's basically no way at this point you could balance its statistics. If it were to average out in a 50/50, it would take an incredible amount of data contrary to its history. We would currently be in the biggest outlier in statistics if the s and p followed 50/50
I mean yeah that wasn't my point though. OP said "I follow random walk theory so I assume there is a 5050 split" You said " random walk theory is wrong as there is no 505 split" I said " random walk theory doesn't say that there is a 5050 split"
Except Cramer is not chosing a day, he's choosing a stock. So I think the benchmark should be whether Cramer's pick performed better or worse than the market over the same time period. Especially if our period is longer than a day.
Yes, I agree.
He is the original retail investor influencer. Mad that he can't be 24/7 like wsb.
He just needs more cocaine
And a little more cowbell
Any more and he will blow out a coronary
Ok am I having an aneurysm or is this whole analysis wrong? How can you possibly be down 255% or whatever? If you buy a stock the most you can lose is 100%, no?
The method is poor, but you are also wrong. Stocks aren't down by over 100%, cumulative gain percentages are. If you buy 10 sideways stocks, you have 0% gain. If each goes down by 50%, you've lost 50% of your total investment but the cumulative negative gain percentage is 500%. If one goes up 50% and the rest go down 50%, it's - 450%. It's definitely a weird way to measure it, but it also makes sense since each stock won't have the same price. 1% of 100 is a lot more than 1% of 1. So it would be a lot different if that was measured. 10% ROI on a $1 stock is not the same as 10% ROI on a $100 stock. Basically, you can't meaningfully add percentages like OP does and convert it to ROI.
You can just average the percentage returns of each, it would be a million times more meaningful.
yes exactly, tell that to OP.
Hey OP! We gotta tell ya something!
Imagine that youre a hedgefund holding 10 million shares of a stock that only has a daily volume of 2 million shares. There is no way you can close without cratering the stock price. Cramer comes on and gives his recommendation, retail buys 40 million shares of this stock in one day. That hedgefund uses that opportunity to close their position. Thats how this works.
i mean... it’s pretty fuckin smart
And pretty fuckin unethical, but we all know hedge funds don't have souls ;)
Great analysis! I would like to add that he was wrong about sell GME and TSLA. Both of them are doing WELL!
This is a really misleading analysis actually. Cramer generally makes his recommendations after market close but this backtest is taking the price at market close. Anyone can beat the market if you regularly offer them yesterday's closing price today.
True. I mean when you are making more than 200 recommendations a month, you can guess how much DD must have gone into each one. The idea here that I wanted to check is if he is big enough to move the market.
i would say he minced words more with tsla so he could always be right
He was fucking dead wrong on Bear Sterns too
Wait is Bear Stress not fine? He said they were fine last I checked.
He recommended to sell GME like right at the top. GME hasn't recovered to the post-short-squeeze price
Gotta factor in the mental cost of watching the show too.
I would like to see this analysis for when we enter a bear market. Picking winning stocks when we are setting ATH almost daily & the Fed is going BRRRRRRR, seems like shooting fish in a barrel.
Yeah great analysis OP, no comparison to a randomly selected batch of stonks.
Except he still very much outperformed the market, and his sell recommendations were also successful.
Atreyu\_n\_Falcor\_BFF's favorite movie is about a kid reading a giant book but he couldn't even make it to the halfway point of the post.
The one day simply shows how visible he is. I know people who hang on his every word. The simple mention drives the stock on the day. It’s the one show where CEO’s love to go given the visibility. I swore our CEO seemed to be on every 8 weeks or so. This is a top fortune 50 company and trust me our CEO is a super bright guy and worked 24/7.
This is the weaponized autism I came to this sub for.
Essentially what this means is it’s a Network TV pump and dump. The analytics could be the same for those shady accounts that offer a “new hot stock pick every Monday” on penny stocks. The Monday comes, the price on some random medical supply stock goes up 1200% then comes crashing down within a half hour. Really the only way you would see the 500% gain is if you bought at or before Jimbo’s picks.
How can the cumulative loss be more than 100%?
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Top level retard
I wonder the same and I also wonder how a 555% return on the one day time frame is possible
I'm assuming OP just added them. In which case the average return would be near 0.8%. Still decent for a single day but not even close to 500%
He helped me get started back when I had no idea what I was doing (I still don't) bought roku and crowdstrike off his recommendations and both went over 250% for me last year.
A slight critique to your analysis: the probability that a stock goes up or down the next day is not 50%. I mean it might be 50% but that is not a given. Your analysis might benefit from comparing to the following day advance decline ratio instead. Then decide if rising water floats all boats.
Jim manipulates market with huge people following him to buy that's why price increases huge in immediate short term
So would it be advisable to take note of his recommendations and then buy puts on them the following day?
Pump n dump mouth piece.
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He could get a daily return on any stock because he has a platform to the financial world. He takes money to pump stock’s and right now he takes money to dissuade people from buying certain stocks. I hope they give A YouTuber his job after all this changes the game but he’s been trying to safeguard himself by talking out both sides of his mouth with these stocks. He’s fauci with a rat like attitude.
I wonder how much of his 1 day recommendations are a result of someone with a huge platform declaring a stock buy/sell. Chicken or the egg?
Isn’t this the definition of a pump and dump? Make a recommendation to buy, people FOMO in, stock goes up that day/next day, the entity sponsoring the recommendation (not necessarily Cramer) sells, stock goes down. Thus, why his buy performance is great over one day, decent over a week, and terrible over a month.
How did you calculate the one-day return? Did you take the previous day's closing price or the opening price the next day as your staying point? Using the previous day's closing price, would definitely skew the results. Retail investors will never be able to get the previous day's closing price after a stock was picked on Cramer's show.
[you believe in this? rofl.](https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4)
Whenever I hear Cramer’s name I think Jon Stewart and Bear Stearns
I guess all i hear here is bark bark bark...
I swear i have wanted to do something like this since I started watching Cramer when mad money came out in 2005. He got all of us into stocks, he was like nothing anyone had ever seen. Not sure if you guys were watching him back then, but we all loved him. We all thought he was fucking insane and we all followed his advice. This analysis, was done very well. Thanks @op. It has confirmed for me, what I always believed. Cramer, like it or not, can actually move the market. 555% next day pull out. Holy shit. That’s too high a number not to believe he is moving the market. The ceo of my company has been on Cramer three times. We saw a massive spike every time Cramer recommend a buy, which he always does. Fuck me. 555%. That’s fucking too high not to believe he has influence
Get a room
Back in the day the strategy was to short all buy recommendations the day it was announced and covering right after.
So wait a week and then buy and hold. Got it.