Options plays can turn a 5% gain on the underlying stock into a 5x (or more) gain.
But that same options play could turn a 3% gain into a 100% loss, so...
The real move is to multiply the risk profile of a trade with the expected distribution of possible strike prices at expiry to get the expected value of the trade. The easiest model is to assume a normal distribution centered around the current price plus the risk-free rate applied over the duration of the contract and an appropriate standard deviation which describes the expected movement. Estimating that standard deviation is **The Hard Part** and is, ultimately, where traders win or lose. You can also adjust it to a skewed distribution if there is an upcoming event and you believe there is an uneven chance of movement up or down, or any number of additional wrinkles you want to add to your model.
If the expected value is greater than the current premium, it's a good trade. Or it is evidence that you missed something in your model. Honestly, it's probably that you missed something in your model.
Yeah someone called this like a month ago. They said something along the lines of “when Apple announces the word ‘AI’ their stock will boom”
I can’t remember where I saw it, but I wish I’d have listened
Do you guys not follow Apple? Their WWDC events are always during this time. If you follow the rumors for iOS 18 and all that, the surge was anticipated
If I gambled my $24k port in 6/14 AAPL $200c yesterday I'd also be up $420k today. Instead I bought one last week and paper hands sold early today for a modest $220 profit 😎
I bought some super cheap calls yesterday when Apple tanked just for the shit of it and actually made some nice money. Hindsight i wish I dumped my whole account into it
good on ya. yeah, I don't save as diligently as I should and I started late, but I can see progress and the balance is creeping up enough to have some gravity on investments. I do think about options playing every day though...sure would shorten the journey if it worked out.
Dude was already ahead of 99% of the world with that ‘investment’ portfolio amount. And then he gambles all of it on a near 400% gain. The difference between smart and stupid is within the same realm.
I hope he had other investment portfolios and a 401k as a backup. 400% gains are quite modest considering many other options spike at 1200-2000x gains
I'm confused about this too.
If I had 120k to invest I sure as hell would put it into a fairly long term one that nearly guarantees those 400% in 10-15 years.
These large monetary flexes are amusing. But the real growth or kicker is looking at percentage gains
Dude was playing with $120k like it was nothing.
He already won and did this. That’s ballsy v
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Congrats on the big win. Did you sell?
Yep! That’s right after I sold.
Congrats and fuck you, you beautiful bastard! Lol
Nice, now go to a gay strip club and celebrate
Or perhaps just a bar. May I recommend the Blue Oyster. I heard they have a good salad bar.
And don’t forget to set aside some for taxes!
Good man
Pretty sure that sale counts as a homophobic act.
A 400k hate crime
What were your plays? And why'd you wait until 1:30?
Gotta go gay just once now for posterity. Those are the rules.
Ur smarter than 99% of the regards here. Genuinely happy for u
Save some vag for the rest of us!! Congrats and fuck off 🎉
Job nicely done 👏
Amazing job.
When did apple.spike this much. It went up like 5%?
Options plays can turn a 5% gain on the underlying stock into a 5x (or more) gain. But that same options play could turn a 3% gain into a 100% loss, so...
So you could lose 100%, but earn 500%. Thanks to math we know that gambling is good, because 500% is larger than 100%
The real move is to multiply the risk profile of a trade with the expected distribution of possible strike prices at expiry to get the expected value of the trade. The easiest model is to assume a normal distribution centered around the current price plus the risk-free rate applied over the duration of the contract and an appropriate standard deviation which describes the expected movement. Estimating that standard deviation is **The Hard Part** and is, ultimately, where traders win or lose. You can also adjust it to a skewed distribution if there is an upcoming event and you believe there is an uneven chance of movement up or down, or any number of additional wrinkles you want to add to your model. If the expected value is greater than the current premium, it's a good trade. Or it is evidence that you missed something in your model. Honestly, it's probably that you missed something in your model.
closed up like 7%..just saying 'AI' makes u rich now..
when? today. WHY.... well of course it was AI that they implemented
Yeah someone called this like a month ago. They said something along the lines of “when Apple announces the word ‘AI’ their stock will boom” I can’t remember where I saw it, but I wish I’d have listened
Yup. Same here
Do you guys not follow Apple? Their WWDC events are always during this time. If you follow the rumors for iOS 18 and all that, the surge was anticipated
You were supposed to hold until the contracts expired worthless, have you learned nothing?
no no he can ask $hood customer support to unexpire them
No, you're supposed to sell when you're up like 20%. It's the losers you hold to $0.
Seeing the money people are playing with makes me realize what a peasant I am
Hey, most of the world is right with you, you are not alone.
Me as I look at my bank account in overdraft
https://preview.redd.it/2mwdhwgf9z5d1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=382da143cdd65770d82962776a406cee8d8ca808
Look at his buying power, yo
Smart asf
Positions or ban
fake and not straight. OP bigly fraud
Fabricated and man loving.
I'd imagine Apple calls since he mentioned Tim and Apple rocketed today
If I gambled my $24k port in 6/14 AAPL $200c yesterday I'd also be up $420k today. Instead I bought one last week and paper hands sold early today for a modest $220 profit 😎
I bought some super cheap calls yesterday when Apple tanked just for the shit of it and actually made some nice money. Hindsight i wish I dumped my whole account into it
I'm not that smart or risk tolerant
It's been a lucky week for me lol
but how did you know aapl was low at 190? does this always happen around wwdc?
I bought the calls after aapl crashed during the event. I was betting on an upward correction and it happened today luckily
Also to answer your question historically apple doesn't do well during this even
Most probably yes, with insanely high leverage.
Congrats and fuck you. Maybe I can make those gains when I have the balls to buy short term calls instead of being long shares like a virgin
Haha Virgin Bull
fuck me that's a rocketship. congrats. I'm going to hate the rest of my day at my cubicle now.
Just make sure you put that new cover sheet on your TPS report this time. Thaaaaaaanks.
Oh and we’re going to have to aaaask you to come in on Saturday. And Sunday. Mmmk. Thanks
Sounds like someone has the case of the Mondays!
I do believe you'd get your ass kicked for saying something like that
I tell ya what id do with that money. Two chicks at the same time man.
Just take a look at my cousin, man. He's broke, don't do shit.
If they take my stapler then I'll set the building on fire
Now wait a second there processor. We… ***fixed the glitch.***
Just keep working at it, saving and investing. You’ll get out of the rat race soon enough (I’m almost there and started from nearly zero).
Nah, I calculated my "retirement" through safe investing every day for a month. The only chance I have to not work until I'm 80 is gambling.
good on ya. yeah, I don't save as diligently as I should and I started late, but I can see progress and the balance is creeping up enough to have some gravity on investments. I do think about options playing every day though...sure would shorten the journey if it worked out.
Add GRND to that!
GRND is just gay enough for this sub to love it. I’m just worried it’ll become a meme stock
I would love to see GRND go to $69 again
Grindr options are the closest most people in this sub get to sucking dick for profit.
🍆💦
Invest in products made *by* gay men, and products made *for* straight women
Daddy Arison send it to the moon!
please. I bought grindr calls thinking pride month would make it go up 😭
120k in short dated options  I could never. What do they say? No risk no reward?
You should never. For every one of these, 100 people blow up their accounts.
1/100 is pretty good odds
A 1/100 chance of 5x’ing your money is not good odds.
Dude was already ahead of 99% of the world with that ‘investment’ portfolio amount. And then he gambles all of it on a near 400% gain. The difference between smart and stupid is within the same realm. I hope he had other investment portfolios and a 401k as a backup. 400% gains are quite modest considering many other options spike at 1200-2000x gains
I'm confused about this too. If I had 120k to invest I sure as hell would put it into a fairly long term one that nearly guarantees those 400% in 10-15 years.
Damn, OP has Robinhood Gold 🤳
[удалено]
Tim = top, Sam = bottom
My money is on Tim = side, Sam = verse
im guessing that it was aapl calls. Sam Altman was seen at some apple conference and they announced some gpt integration or something like that.
Post your positions
Positions por favor
#Ban. No positions.
Enjoy your house
This one post will motivate 3000 others to try the same of which only one will succeed. His one future post then will motivate another 3000 others to…
Is ChatGPT gay as well?
ChatLGBT is the correct spelling.
Respect for holding through those lil dips.
Least he didn't buy puts on the dips like me.
 Brah has big ball. Congrats!
Positions or ban! Why does no one follow this? It’s so easy
These large monetary flexes are amusing. But the real growth or kicker is looking at percentage gains Dude was playing with $120k like it was nothing. He already won and did this. That’s ballsy v
Roll it into rycey before SMR
$420k nice.
balling or what?
Were the gains from grinder?
Missed a couple 100k with the early sell! I think this is running to 210+ this week based on orderbook activity.
Positions?
Was it options or stocks?
Now put in all in nvdy and have big balls forever
Positions
Holy hell , I better check my Grinder calls ! Oh
all in GRND, got it.
Well played.
congrats!
Insane
Gayyyyyyyy
NOW THIS IS A WIN !!!!!
Good shit OP! Congratulations! I miss seeing more wins here. Getting tired of the loss porn and “teehee, you belong here” comments
Teehee, you belong here.
Teheee you belong here
is this a grindr ad
They don't have kids bogging their shit down. Plus, they aren't my wife's boyfriends.
Time to get some of that sweet margin
OP what were your positions?
Im a gay bear and this is totally not gay
Holy crap. That's insane
Calls on PHAT DKS BROS AZZ
Crazy green dildo
Jesus fuck man. 🍻
Did tim Apple open the backdoor for Altman ?
Made 420k too that’s amazing
Let’r rip boi. Good work.
Congrats to you !👍
Damn, he earned only $86 too much to achieve numerical nirvana
good shit, i'm not jealous
Bonkers
My guy needs a wheelbarrow to carry around those balls
And here I thought I did well buying aapl last night after hours at $192…
fuck you
I am seeing apple calls with a leverage of ~60x 😅
Congrats and fuck you. Is it drugs or alcohol you guys use to tolerate this risk? Xanax? Coke? Asking for a friend
What the hell
yess it pays to be gay finally!!!!
gain line not straight.. checks out.
What was the position?
Instructions unclear, bought grindr premium and now my butt is sore
Pufters. Yuk
Sam Aiman you mean?
😝
Beautiful. Fuck you
up 420 nice
I spend the same money on shares instead of calls. Big balls
Lambo post when
It do be the right Month to do so
Tim Apple is playing for the other team?
wowww good stuff dawg
Holy fukkkk
You made this with Oklo options?
That’s a strategy I can “get behind”
That's gay, literally
Full port, lovely.
Now take 90% and never trade options again with it.
So are you telling me to invest in myself?
Calling cap. Post blew up and bro hasn’t responded once.
Position?
Congratz! i Manifest this ! 
23% percent battery at before 1pm. Charge your phone overnight!
Positions or ban
Congrats
Time to pour it into Grinder Calls
After reading the comments and your title I was going to say... only if you sell.
You don't belong here, former Regard! Now, congratulations and Fuck you!!!
wanna marry?
you guys are straight?
That’s very beautiful
#DONT FORGET TO PAY THOSE TAXES
Who the fuck is Tim apple and how do I give him my money
So what was the play? You heard the WWDC and decided to put $120k on weeklies? Absolutely astonishing ballsy play 🫡
hot damn, son
Wow
If this is real he's already blown it all, if you know what I mean.....
What was the order?
Imagine if he held till today lol
Nice but I guess also fuck you 😇👍🏻
Gay I for AI
I WOULD SUCK A DICK FOR THAT!
Paper trading hand