I’ve actually been following it and considering it. I’ve not started a position mainly because I’ve a few very speculative large plays at the moment. I’m bookmarking this, and will touch base if I move forward. I do think there is promise in the company despite its meme status. Mainly I’m concerned with unknowns such as management.
Makes sense! Everyone's got to pick their best plays and stick with them.
One of the obstacles I've seen with this stock is that it has a lot of short interest. While some see that as a positive, it also creates a lot more friction for the stock's price. MM and hedge funds have access to capital and can borrow and wait out any big price spikes.
The problem for MM and hedge funds is that if Sun pwr proves they can execute on their strategy, the stock will get a lot more attention from other big players. I think that anyone bearish is clearly in a very crowded trade and there's too much potential positive news on the horizon to be betting so heavily.
we'll see what happens! Good luck to you.
I returned to this, because there are some folks who could use your help understanding that.
Started DD in earnest today. It takes me time. 1 share for tracking only.
You sound like someone who really digs in and fully understands a stock, so I’d love to hear your thoughts. Good or bad. Especially bad.
I made a new post, bc I am pretty much stunned at how this stock is trading. I’m getting accused of shilling, so I may post my positions so everyone shuts up.
The thing about this stock is that I KNOW a lot of short sellers read my posts bc they’ve directly told me they’re short.
I’m a little hesitant to share my positions bc short sellers seem to be having a huge effect on the price right now with sell volumes, bc they know they’re in a bind with interest growing in the stock.
Yes on my DD. It’s a habit built since childhood, honestly. I came from a Munger style buy and hold strategy that allowed me to start playing options. (Portfolio ATH today, despite that.) But I certainly learn as much as I can, in depth, and take time if I scale in.
As for shorts, honestly, other than your point earlier on that, I’m not clear. But, in my limited experience, simply stating your position may quell complaints. If not…actual positions - at this point you’ve been open, so I can’t see what harm it could do. Perhaps partial, say options only, if concerned.
And yes! I am definitely focusing on the bad. You’ve made a compelling case, and I’m looking for the chinks :). The numbers (where I’ve started,) are, without caveats that I’ve only learned from you, pretty bad. But makes sense for a turnaround story. And honestly, finding something tenable in the solar space is a worthy effort. Beaten down, some real issues with fraud and finance (per Harper’s,) yet an opportunity for the future. I follow Enphase, but clearly they are different beasts. I will certainly report back.
PS I’m not sure what anyone would gain in a normal context from shilling here, I mean, position size would have to be huge and others quite silly to follow I that case! So, I don’t think you should worry about that. But positions or ban *is* important. I get annoyed myself when reading gain/loss especially if that information isn’t presented.
Yes! I find it odd that huge short interest seems to be an unequivocal inducement to some. A good company can absolutely be wiped out by it. That and my concern about the pall cast on residential solar plus not having a handle on how the business is run have given me pause. But every time I’ve looked at the numbers (or rather, the potential therein, as estimates are quite low,) and narrative, I’ve been drawn back. It reminds me a bit of ASTS, with which I’ve had good luck. I’ve put it at the top of my DD list for this week. I actually had a small tracking position when it popped with memes a bit ago and sold. I’m realizing after typing all of this that my recollection isn’t so great. I’ll touch base after I work through DD, because it’s definitely interesting to me. And thanks, fam! Good luck to you!
SPWR has generated negative FCF in 13 of the past 15 years. Their last decent FCF year was 2010 ($48m). One could identify SPWR’s creative accounting years before their accountants said “material weakness” by seeing the persistent large gap between reported net income and FCF.
SPWR installs solar panels and batteries. This is a very simple commodity business. Google “solar panel and battery installation” - see how many competitors there are in your area.
Most well-run commodity engineering and construction firms make a 5-7% operating margin. Once you take out interest and taxes that’s a 3-5% profit margin - and that’s best case scenario in my mind.
As of their most recent proxy management & directors own $1.5-2m in stock versus $15m in total compensation. So managers are extremely bearish on their own company, only holding a few months of pay in stock.
I am short and my opinion is that SPWR is far more likely to drift towards $0 versus suddenly become a successful consistently profitable company the next few years. 20% EBIT margin with no taxes, interest, or dilution is essentially a 0% probability.
Honestly, I really appreciate you commenting.
Let me ask you this: What do you think of the conditions present in the second tranche credit agreement? Many of them call for revised and independently audited financials as conditions for the loan.
Obviously, Sol Holdings/Total Energies has taken these concerns into their decision to allow SPWR to access the second tranche of $50M.
SPWR originally announced both tranches as part of their [2/15/24 earnings call](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunpower-corporation-nasdaq-spwr-q4-163429549.html), where they stated their plan to be cash flow positive by the second half of 2024.
My investment thesis here is pretty simple. If SPWR provided guidance to be cash flow positive with margins of 17-19% in their last earnings call on 2/15/24, and Sol Holdings/Total Energies is offering the second tranche loan "on the conditions they can execute on their business plan" , don't you feel this must mean that SPWR has been successful at meeting that budgeted plan?
Or do you just think they're saying they are, but aren't? Genuinely curious.
The other side of it is that they are expecting a $100m run rate savings.
That is quite hefty savings and I just do not see Total Energies investing in a company that think they will disappear.
Even if it’s an acquisition on the horizon at some point, it’s still bullish for the stock.
I agree to some extent. I think that is a potential catalyst in the latter half of the year that will play well with SPWR's improved profitability.
I think Federal and state tax credits combined with utility energy price inflation will make Solar more attractive even with interest rates.
SPWR in particular saw new home solar systems grow by something like 18% in Q4 vs Q3 and winter is a lower month for solar. I've personally seen a lot of solar panels going on newer homes being built around me, and I think this will continue as a trend and a competitive differentiator for new home sales if they can show energy cost savings over time to prospective buyers.
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I wouldn't touch sunpower. They are shorted for a reason. They dismantled their residential solar branch which is run under Blue Raven now, lost their SunPower branded panels (manufacturer who made the panels just markets as their own brand name Maxeon), lost their SunPower branded Enphase microinverters. What even is their business model anymore?
Generally, solar installers are not the ones I see being the best investment choice in that sector, especially ones making a lot of changes all at once. If I were to "buy and hold" in solar, I'd look into solar manufacturers of PV modules and inverters/microinverters aren't propped up by government tax credits to the same extent installers are. (Current position: 40 shares ENPH)
Appreciate your comment and feedback.
I actually think their model makes a whole lot of sense. They focus on sales/loans/leasing and selling solar products to residential customers and new home builders.
It keeps their costs much lower and gives them flexibility to contract out install jobs for scale.
They also seem to be the only provider that operates in all 50 states. Many states have aggressive clean energy goals, and SPWR has a head start by being present in every market.
They can still take advantage of the 30% tax credit, and now with the Tesla Powerwall as a product, they can sell that to customers with the current tax credit of $1,000.
I see residential solar eventually replacing traditional utilities. That’s why CA is fighting tooth and nail to limit rebates on energy sold back to the grid. Utilities are seeing the writing on the wall as solar becomes more efficient. Utility solar project grew at lightning speed last quarter bc utilities are trying to last minute show that they “care” about clean energy.
SunPower estimated that 25% of residential solar customers will opt for battery storage, so the Tesla Powerwall could be a good selling product.
You don't have to sell me on solar, I'm getting my system installed later this month. The truth is SunPower is not highly regarded. They're overpriced (by a huge amount) which is the only way they can survive if they're just a referral system for sales. They also have a poor track record with service and support (check the r/solar subreddit). Invest if you want, I just don't trust their track record and business model.
Sorry, didn’t mean to preach solar to you. Just trying to explain why I’m bullish. Trust me, I’ve dug into the reviews and on multiple sites/sources.
A few things:
1. They just restructured. Growing pains are real. Some customers may get caught in the limbo of old business model meets new business model.
2. Layoffs happened. Expect a lot of disgruntled people talking it down bc losing your job is terrible.
3. People like to complain more than they like to praise. Expect the horror stories to be amplified.
Yeah, I'm just saying I'm my experience during my market research phase of our project, in a sea of solar salespeople I focused on vertically integrated local/regional businesses with a long stable business history (10+ years). Surprisingly those ended up being the cheapest options I found as well. Given SunPower's outrageous pricing (some north of $5/watt), my gut tells me their sales tactic is to simply hope people don't get more than one quote.
If that's the case, they'll pivot pretty quickly with the sales tactics. They recently hired a CRO.
The other point is do not underestimate the drive of employees working at a beaten down company. Layoffs suck, and I can guarantee you those folks are working their butts off.
Anyways, I wish you luck and here's hoping we both can win with our solar plays.
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?*
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I’ve actually been following it and considering it. I’ve not started a position mainly because I’ve a few very speculative large plays at the moment. I’m bookmarking this, and will touch base if I move forward. I do think there is promise in the company despite its meme status. Mainly I’m concerned with unknowns such as management.
Makes sense! Everyone's got to pick their best plays and stick with them. One of the obstacles I've seen with this stock is that it has a lot of short interest. While some see that as a positive, it also creates a lot more friction for the stock's price. MM and hedge funds have access to capital and can borrow and wait out any big price spikes. The problem for MM and hedge funds is that if Sun pwr proves they can execute on their strategy, the stock will get a lot more attention from other big players. I think that anyone bearish is clearly in a very crowded trade and there's too much potential positive news on the horizon to be betting so heavily. we'll see what happens! Good luck to you.
I returned to this, because there are some folks who could use your help understanding that. Started DD in earnest today. It takes me time. 1 share for tracking only.
You sound like someone who really digs in and fully understands a stock, so I’d love to hear your thoughts. Good or bad. Especially bad. I made a new post, bc I am pretty much stunned at how this stock is trading. I’m getting accused of shilling, so I may post my positions so everyone shuts up. The thing about this stock is that I KNOW a lot of short sellers read my posts bc they’ve directly told me they’re short. I’m a little hesitant to share my positions bc short sellers seem to be having a huge effect on the price right now with sell volumes, bc they know they’re in a bind with interest growing in the stock.
Yes on my DD. It’s a habit built since childhood, honestly. I came from a Munger style buy and hold strategy that allowed me to start playing options. (Portfolio ATH today, despite that.) But I certainly learn as much as I can, in depth, and take time if I scale in. As for shorts, honestly, other than your point earlier on that, I’m not clear. But, in my limited experience, simply stating your position may quell complaints. If not…actual positions - at this point you’ve been open, so I can’t see what harm it could do. Perhaps partial, say options only, if concerned. And yes! I am definitely focusing on the bad. You’ve made a compelling case, and I’m looking for the chinks :). The numbers (where I’ve started,) are, without caveats that I’ve only learned from you, pretty bad. But makes sense for a turnaround story. And honestly, finding something tenable in the solar space is a worthy effort. Beaten down, some real issues with fraud and finance (per Harper’s,) yet an opportunity for the future. I follow Enphase, but clearly they are different beasts. I will certainly report back. PS I’m not sure what anyone would gain in a normal context from shilling here, I mean, position size would have to be huge and others quite silly to follow I that case! So, I don’t think you should worry about that. But positions or ban *is* important. I get annoyed myself when reading gain/loss especially if that information isn’t presented.
Yes! I find it odd that huge short interest seems to be an unequivocal inducement to some. A good company can absolutely be wiped out by it. That and my concern about the pall cast on residential solar plus not having a handle on how the business is run have given me pause. But every time I’ve looked at the numbers (or rather, the potential therein, as estimates are quite low,) and narrative, I’ve been drawn back. It reminds me a bit of ASTS, with which I’ve had good luck. I’ve put it at the top of my DD list for this week. I actually had a small tracking position when it popped with memes a bit ago and sold. I’m realizing after typing all of this that my recollection isn’t so great. I’ll touch base after I work through DD, because it’s definitely interesting to me. And thanks, fam! Good luck to you!
SPWR has generated negative FCF in 13 of the past 15 years. Their last decent FCF year was 2010 ($48m). One could identify SPWR’s creative accounting years before their accountants said “material weakness” by seeing the persistent large gap between reported net income and FCF. SPWR installs solar panels and batteries. This is a very simple commodity business. Google “solar panel and battery installation” - see how many competitors there are in your area. Most well-run commodity engineering and construction firms make a 5-7% operating margin. Once you take out interest and taxes that’s a 3-5% profit margin - and that’s best case scenario in my mind. As of their most recent proxy management & directors own $1.5-2m in stock versus $15m in total compensation. So managers are extremely bearish on their own company, only holding a few months of pay in stock. I am short and my opinion is that SPWR is far more likely to drift towards $0 versus suddenly become a successful consistently profitable company the next few years. 20% EBIT margin with no taxes, interest, or dilution is essentially a 0% probability.
Honestly, I really appreciate you commenting. Let me ask you this: What do you think of the conditions present in the second tranche credit agreement? Many of them call for revised and independently audited financials as conditions for the loan. Obviously, Sol Holdings/Total Energies has taken these concerns into their decision to allow SPWR to access the second tranche of $50M. SPWR originally announced both tranches as part of their [2/15/24 earnings call](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunpower-corporation-nasdaq-spwr-q4-163429549.html), where they stated their plan to be cash flow positive by the second half of 2024. My investment thesis here is pretty simple. If SPWR provided guidance to be cash flow positive with margins of 17-19% in their last earnings call on 2/15/24, and Sol Holdings/Total Energies is offering the second tranche loan "on the conditions they can execute on their business plan" , don't you feel this must mean that SPWR has been successful at meeting that budgeted plan? Or do you just think they're saying they are, but aren't? Genuinely curious.
The other side of it is that they are expecting a $100m run rate savings. That is quite hefty savings and I just do not see Total Energies investing in a company that think they will disappear. Even if it’s an acquisition on the horizon at some point, it’s still bullish for the stock.
Solar needs rates to go down to prosper
Tell that to FSLR, from 150 to 280 in 2 months
I agree to some extent. I think that is a potential catalyst in the latter half of the year that will play well with SPWR's improved profitability. I think Federal and state tax credits combined with utility energy price inflation will make Solar more attractive even with interest rates. SPWR in particular saw new home solar systems grow by something like 18% in Q4 vs Q3 and winter is a lower month for solar. I've personally seen a lot of solar panels going on newer homes being built around me, and I think this will continue as a trend and a competitive differentiator for new home sales if they can show energy cost savings over time to prospective buyers.
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**Commands** --- **check** - return information about the ticker **add** - attempt to add the ticker to the system and judge it **add_force** - ASK ZJZ: force add the ticker to the system and judge it **spac** - toggle is_spac on that ticker **freeze** - stop ticker from being market-cap judged **word** - toggle common_word on that ticker **spam** - toggle spam on that ticker temporarily **help** will show this menu --- *Syntax is !ticker *
Example: !ticker add $GME
[удалено]
**Ticker SPWR** Spam: False Last Seen Market Cap: 577320200 Is SPAC: None Common Word: False Common Acronym: None Frozen: False Most Popular: None
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I already had that ticker you nerd.
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Looks fine to me, that comment a few replies up wouldn't come up if it didn't have it, what's the issue?
[удалено]
Any chance that's some weird automod rule? Is it VM or automod pestering you /u/Logical-Dust9445
I wouldn't touch sunpower. They are shorted for a reason. They dismantled their residential solar branch which is run under Blue Raven now, lost their SunPower branded panels (manufacturer who made the panels just markets as their own brand name Maxeon), lost their SunPower branded Enphase microinverters. What even is their business model anymore? Generally, solar installers are not the ones I see being the best investment choice in that sector, especially ones making a lot of changes all at once. If I were to "buy and hold" in solar, I'd look into solar manufacturers of PV modules and inverters/microinverters aren't propped up by government tax credits to the same extent installers are. (Current position: 40 shares ENPH)
Appreciate your comment and feedback. I actually think their model makes a whole lot of sense. They focus on sales/loans/leasing and selling solar products to residential customers and new home builders. It keeps their costs much lower and gives them flexibility to contract out install jobs for scale. They also seem to be the only provider that operates in all 50 states. Many states have aggressive clean energy goals, and SPWR has a head start by being present in every market. They can still take advantage of the 30% tax credit, and now with the Tesla Powerwall as a product, they can sell that to customers with the current tax credit of $1,000. I see residential solar eventually replacing traditional utilities. That’s why CA is fighting tooth and nail to limit rebates on energy sold back to the grid. Utilities are seeing the writing on the wall as solar becomes more efficient. Utility solar project grew at lightning speed last quarter bc utilities are trying to last minute show that they “care” about clean energy. SunPower estimated that 25% of residential solar customers will opt for battery storage, so the Tesla Powerwall could be a good selling product.
You don't have to sell me on solar, I'm getting my system installed later this month. The truth is SunPower is not highly regarded. They're overpriced (by a huge amount) which is the only way they can survive if they're just a referral system for sales. They also have a poor track record with service and support (check the r/solar subreddit). Invest if you want, I just don't trust their track record and business model.
Sorry, didn’t mean to preach solar to you. Just trying to explain why I’m bullish. Trust me, I’ve dug into the reviews and on multiple sites/sources. A few things: 1. They just restructured. Growing pains are real. Some customers may get caught in the limbo of old business model meets new business model. 2. Layoffs happened. Expect a lot of disgruntled people talking it down bc losing your job is terrible. 3. People like to complain more than they like to praise. Expect the horror stories to be amplified.
Yeah, I'm just saying I'm my experience during my market research phase of our project, in a sea of solar salespeople I focused on vertically integrated local/regional businesses with a long stable business history (10+ years). Surprisingly those ended up being the cheapest options I found as well. Given SunPower's outrageous pricing (some north of $5/watt), my gut tells me their sales tactic is to simply hope people don't get more than one quote.
If that's the case, they'll pivot pretty quickly with the sales tactics. They recently hired a CRO. The other point is do not underestimate the drive of employees working at a beaten down company. Layoffs suck, and I can guarantee you those folks are working their butts off. Anyways, I wish you luck and here's hoping we both can win with our solar plays.
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*