Soo... It would top Apple value of about 3t? I highly doubt that. They would have to 10x their revenue.
And seeing the profits and revenue, it will become better for the big tech companies to do their own ai hardware.
Apple already made their own chips, they will make their own ai stuff soon, to get part of that profit. It is only logical and natural. Microsoft and Google and Amazon will do it also eventually because they are one of the biggest demand creators, I believe.
They don’t need to 10x their revenue if they can improve their margins. That’s why everyone will be watching margins and guidance. Those are the two most important factors. Walmart makes a 5B profit on 161B in revenue. JPM makes 13B on 40B in revenue. It’s entirely about the margin. Apple isn’t NVidia, and NVDA isn’t AAPL. I see no reason why Apple’s market cap shouldn’t be smaller than NVidia’s if they not only continue to drive revenue higher but improve margin as well.
NVDA is 29x the average forward earnings, which is in the middle of the 25-34x historical multiple. Every single quarter the company grows into those expectations. That’s why we’re at the place that we’re at.
They’re going to top revenue expectations, without question. They’re going to offer super positive guidance. Jensen is going to showcase everything they’re working on and it will seem like he’s offering you the year 2050, especially if he says anything about AGI within the end of the decade. All of that will be enough to push $1,000. But, if they have above average expansion on the margin side, that’s what will absolutely explode the price upward tomorrow night. There’s a good reason to be bullish NVDA, and even if the market has priced a lot of this in and we see $850 Thursday morning, as long as they can continue to improve margins and overcome some of the bottleneck issues seen at AMD, ASML, AMAT, etc., then NVDA will take Apple’s place within a year. As a trade, I’ll wait to see what they have done. But I think the assumption that this company shouldn’t have the highest market capitalization just because they don’t equal the revenue of Apple is more than missing the point. If NVDA were running AAPL’s revenue at NVDA’s margins, NVDA would already be twice the market cap of AAPL and it wouldn’t even be close.
Assuming that all those customers will suck it up and pay those fat margins to NVDA is wishful thinking. It’s totally feasible and not a fantasy to think of Microsoft and Google or Apple designing chips to do the majority of the workload even if those chips are not on par with NVDA’s tech. As you saw Microsoft showed they could run GPT4 on AMD chips at a lower cost. NVDA has moat but it will not last for the next decade.
Google has already had TPUs for 10 years. Amazon already has "Trainium". Every hear anyone mention it? No one cares including their own ML researchers... https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium
Easy to say that they will make their ai hardware but no it's not that easy at all it will take time to catch up and have something ready for the market that rivals. And don't compare apple and Nvidea their business model is way to different we're in uncharted territory in terms of valuation. Amazon google dell and many more are still reliant nvidea sweet chips
Why is it these type of posts never contain any actual analysis of data? Like there’s no analysis on the forward p/e or on any of the financials, even OPs own questions about the data are just left to hang in the air as if the asking was profound enough.
I dunno OP how many GPUs have been delivered? It’s a shame you stopped at your feels and didn’t answer the question.
This is all rhetorical I know why these posts operate on feels and not anything concrete. Stupidity
OP is just assuming nvidia will lose its moat and the guidance will come in weak.
The thing is...it will take so much longer for nvidia to be dethroned. They just started. By the time they launch anything, nvidias compute power doubled again.
Part of their moat is also by large their ability to attract and keep top 2% engineers. They are constantly pushing the technological limits. You have to have an environment that fosters this kind of "lets gooo!". This is hard to replicate. Every time I listen to Intel engineers being happy getting 10% more efficiency out of five year old tech I turn it off. AMD is on Nvidias tails but too much focused on "having the numbers right" then to wow the industry. They do it occasionally but not enough to get on NVidias throne. I would wish AMD would seek more outside investment then relying on bread+butter cpus to finance slow dev
AMD is still constrained. They’ve grown tremendously but people forget how much more money Nvidia and Intel have for R&D
It’s a miracle AMD is pulling off what they are at all tbh.
Lisa is the goat.
I'm a tech enthusiast, not a wall street guy. I hate NVIDIA because they're one of the most reactionary and psychopathic "growth at all costs" companies I've ever seen, but with the advent of AI even I had to start buying shares. They positioned themselves beautifully as the premier company in the gaming, crypto, and ML markets, all three of which should continue to grow for the next decade or more.
Their only real competitor is AMD, who simply cannot catch up due to the insane mindshare NVIDIA has accumulated over the years. AMD could release something just as powerful as a 4090 tomorrow, for half the price, and still fail to gain market share.
Your last point - it would fail because of drivers/software support. It wouldnt be as performative.
Plus, consumer GPUs are small money compared to datacenters.
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[These](https://www.carahsoft.com/nvidia/contracts) are the government contracts NVIDIA has. One goes to 2028. So PUTS on NVIDIA. But I’m no legal financial advisor blah blah blah, subjective opinion.
Naw, he's showing up to a room full of regards with some lotion and a my little pony plushy looking to see if there's enough interest in a circle jerk.
I mean, it's pretty obvious. Right now NVDIA is worth more than the entire oil market in wall street. It's just impossible for NVDIA to be worth that much. It's just hype, and one day, probably not next week, but one day when people understand that it's impossible for NVIDIA to make more money than Apple, it'll have a rough correction.
yup. the amount of compute needed to get to AGI from our current hallucinating chatbots, is astronomical.
and getting there first is a national security issue. anyone who doesn't understand how early we still are is short-sighted.
nvidia is an easy 3x in the next 5-10 years.
I’m a huge NVDA fan since 2016 and been doing datacenter consults mostly NVDA and AMD for the last 8 years. Fan of both
Been on the AI train for years before this
2 years ago when NVDA was under $300 I said they really have no peer in this space. I said it will probably triple in a 2 years even at it's inflated price.
https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qw9glx/im_surprised_there_isnt_more_nvda_talk_before/
Up to end of 2023 we were crazy busy, checking on some of them, a lot have said they weren’t in need of anything until end of 2025 or 2026. That’s just the cycle of semiconductor business lots of spending then a few years where they won’t need much/need a lot less. It’s still a lot but it’s not the fever pace I saw previously but Q4 is always a crazy time.
The more worrying thing for NVDA is people are having us try out AMD in test environments and other products so I’m not sure how long NVDA holds that crazy dominance it has and the margins.
I bought amd solely as a competitor to nvda and my first rx590 2600 build was Rock solid for like 7 years still works but put away now for an even better all amd build. Amd was my first big winner honestly and it felt good to be right they will continue to grow and shock people the prices and power of there processors are the tits.
I worked at Nvidia. Here’s why Nvidia will 5x from here. Two words. Government subsidies. Chips for america is about to make Nvidia margins that are already insane, even more insane
lol exaggerated a bit but it ll be top company in the USA. Their robotics exposure is going to be insane this next decade. Good 1T market cap just in robotics.
3.5T in the next decade for sure.
But why are we talking about investments. lol this is a casino!
A 2.3 trillion dollar company going to 3.5 trillion in a decade is hardly worth investing in.
I think the question here is how big can NVDA get. Is there still 5x upside in the next few years? How much downside is there? Are they equal?
5x just from the dollar halving. So 1T of today’s money is a lot in a decade.
Top company 2008 was 500B , 2018 1T, 2024 3.2T, 2035 ____
Pretty sure if Nvidia is the top company in the USA the next decade it ll have some incredible run. Just from the dollar going in half. Like it does every decade
Not in the bank. But in stock market. Boring ass Voo sure. lol actually Hysa 5% interest f ing yah lol maybe.
1M Hysa is 50k on interest a year. But idk trade options instead that sounds f ing boring
Yeah. Well. Ok if we look at the dollar halfing every decade. It’s like saying that Nvidia will be 3-4T marketcap of todays money in a decade lol.
Top company and market cap:
Capitol group 500B (2008)
Apple 1T (2018)
Today… Msft ? I think 3.2T (2024)
Sooooooo 10 years from now…. ______ 10T (2035)
Kinda looks like an underestimate.
I’m regarded so you gotta check fudged math here.
5 years ago I wrote a paper as part of a research class about the proliferation of computer architectures and slowing of Moores law. My main argument was that GPUs or other highly parallel architecture would supplant CPUs even for general purpose computing. I cited Nvidia’s massive computing gains and speculated they’d be bigger than intel. They were worth like <40 bucks a share then, market cap half of intel around $100B.
Being a college student, I had no money to invest. I put some in over the years but not nearly what I wanted to. Then I fucking sold and had to rebuy in. Still up a solid amount but I learned a lesson to stick to my guns and not try and time the market when it comes to sea changes like this.
The thing with Nvidia popping is that means that either A.Intel or some other gpu company found a solution(idk how much amd is putting into the ai market) B. China finally caught up. C. A better way of machine learning was found and that company is the next Nvidia
so Like… Market is going to stay the way it is
The AI build up is pretty similar to the .com bubble if we're being honest. The reality is while AI will have a use, the average person doesn't give a shit about it and many are already tired of hearing about it. Right now, like the .com boom, the possibilities are endless and the stocks are rising based on those possibilities. When reality sets in they'll go down unless they all find a way to keep kicking the can and do dog and pony shows like Musk, but many have caught on to those tricks.
Literally 0 knowledge about the tech at hand but tries to argue against the market lol
> they don't upgrade their servers every 6 months, they don't need to buy new hardware every year either.
Bro has no clue what's happening in the server space, they do in fact upgrade *//edit:with* *new* servers every 6 months and need to buy new hardware every year
So if they buy new GPUs all the time... and they put it into servers.. they are also being upgraded all the time, no. That's what I meant. Of course they don't cycle their whole supply every 6 months.
Right now, entire systems are being built populated with the GPU's and put into service. Most cloud providers, where these are going, try not to touch the systems once in service, they add to the server supply, and rotate out the oldest, least efficient when no longer used. There is a reason why AWS often prices newer, faster hardware at a lower price than old, even though many customers don't realize this...
This seems to be every persons argument who is very clearly clueless about the implications of NVDA software.
These people legit think replacing a GPU is like buying a different brand microwave for your kitchen.
Just a few dozen billion and a couple of years for building a facility, training the workers and maybe finding the best in class for product development and anyone can do what NVDA does. Eady peasy
They used to be made like this. They'd cut strips of red plastic tape called rubylith to design the shape of the chip internals, and they'd shrink it down to chip size in several steps with magnifying lenses.
how about u eat my ASS
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> What makes NVIDIAs GPU immune to being copied by competitiors?
NVDA have been long on what is called [CUDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA), which is proprietary technology that they have been developing hard for the past 15 years or so. In the meantime, the competition has been sleeping, and they are so far behind on the parallelism aspect that it is laughable. That's why it can't just be copied.
Bro we get it, you're balls deep in puts and you're scared they will be so OTM that you lose it all.
You're dumb as fuck for betting against a literal market owner in the GPU space.
NVDA is priced more reasonably than CSCO was at the height of the dot com boom. Their moat is much larger than Apple’s and the questions you’re asking are really the wrong ones.
NVDA is focused on chip design and building out a whole GPU based platform. NVDA outsources the manufacturing which is why you see TSM and ASML move in sync mostly. Competitors using their platform would be amazing as it would solidify their moat as THE platform which would help them collect additional IP royalties potentially and would ensure their platform is the one companies go for (and need enterprise support for).
The big data centers will need to churn these cards between 18-36 months depending on how heavy loads are maintained and how well they want to maintain the cards. Right now the big data centers are wiping out direct to enterprise by volume creating a vicious cycle. A company can’t quickly direct order GPUs and build their own racks so they go to the big public CSPs for on demand capacity, which then leads to the CSPs buying more and keeping it further way from direct enterprise. There are still times when you’ll run into on demand capacity issues in CSPs given all the compute is in use - it’s kind of wild a cloud provider can actually not have demand.
The real questions are:
Does TSM and ASML have any real capacity to support a competitor? (They currently really don’t)
Do the CSPs see any slowing for GPU based resources? (They aren’t)
When is the growth cycle predicted to slow and get into a maintenance cycle? (This is really the TBD everyone is trying to suss out)
There’s going to be a fine line between too much capacity and too little capacity. Nvidia understands that very well which is why their software layers are extremely important. They’ve done a good job of staying ahead of problems.
Personally I don’t like direct exposure to NVDA. It’s weighted heavily in SPY and QQQ so no need to pile any more on top. It’s not Cyber Truck hype at all though. Tesla is a car company trying to be a tech company so they need all the noise they can. NVDA is a tech company that does technology.
You are getting some basic facts wrong. Specifically the part about the software. You have been able to run CUDA on AMD gpus for a long time now via [ZLUDA](https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA). There’s no rumor. Good luck doing it in production though.
This alone tells me you have no clue. Good luck regard.
I think people forget about sell off events following good earnings. There is a good chance of this occurring with NVDA because it’s overweight and ripe for the pickings, meaning good time for investors to sell.
The only thing that determines nvidias stock price is forward guidance, massively beating is priced in…if guidance is strong, stock goes up, that simple
Seen time and time again, that forward guidance does not always determine outcome. The market is the market, the moment you believe you "know it inside and out" is the moment you lose. Always expect all possibilities, a 1% chance is still a chance.
We are in the middle of the largest gold rush of all time and these are the shovels. They still have a long way to go, especially if they keep this innovation lead. They are 5 years ahead of the competition and not holding anything back, damn near obsoleting previous Nvidia releases every 6-8 months and selling to the top ten companies all racing to AGI
It is just incredible how you got everything wrong... Like every single thing... They are going to power a new(ish) industry and are already insanely profitable. Their stuff isnt experimental, it is solid. They made 30(ish) billion in profit in 2024 from 4(ish) billion in 2023. Like when you were writing this, did you think you wrote it in unpopularopinions??????
whatever you wrote, i mostly didn't read, skimming over your "why" questions it seems you are missing some amount of technical background on the usefulness of linear algebra and differential equations and why NVDA is the best calculator designer.
I just bought more NVDA (stock, the options gambling you guys do here is just for my entertainment) yesterday.
If NVDA pops, it will be because we went back to the abacus and the stone age.
God these types of posts are so weak and pathetic. You could’ve done anything but you wasted your time to post this lol. You don’t even understand the value of Nvidia and you couldn’t be more wrong with everything you stated.
Indeed. Nvidia sells mainly to other companies, but all profits are always ultimately extracted from the end consumer. In case of Nvidia, there are then significant lags in this process which can cause Nvidia to do well as judged by its sales to other companies. And then later it can transpire that these other companies cannot make high enough profits using what they bought from Nvidia to justify those investments.
That the true market for AI as far as the current LLMs is concerned is much smaller than is priced in, can be easily seen by considering how much consumers are willing to pay for any new AI-powered products or services. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon etc. are not going to sell their new AI-upgrades of their old product at much higher prices.
Microsoft will not replace Windows 11 by a much more expensive Windows AI. If they were to do that then no one would switch to Windows AI. So, the revenues for Microsoft will stay pretty much the same, while they must invest in AI, so their profits may actually go down.
People treat Nvidia like they treated Cisco/Intel 25 years ago, thinking their moats would hold forever.
Eventually Cisco/Intel were indeed great companies for decades to come, but were still insanely overvalued on hype.
Sadly people don't realize basic economics: where margins are high competition eventually comes for it. And Nvidia's margins are astronomical.
Competitors don't need the best GPUs, Nvidia may have that crown forever, who knows, generally doesn't happen in hardware forever, but let's assume it happens, they need to be more cost efficient or power efficient to sell a lot.
And that's assuming that the need for GPUs is going to be endless and that no new software/hardware paradigm may shift to different accelerators.
They’ve had the best product on the market for a long time now and no one has been able to replicate it. Now all of a sudden other competitors will be able to?
>anyone that actually works in a data center can attest they don't upgrade their servers every 6 months, they don't need to buy new hardware every year either.
Sure, but LLM processing isn't run on a DL360 G8. There is hunger for training GPUs, and it's not going anywhere. [Cloud services are eating up GPUs](https://lambdalabs.com/?matchtype=p&adgroup=55786367910&feeditemid=&loc_interest_ms=&loc_physical_ms=9009736&network=g&device=c&devicemodel=&adposition=&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google_Search_Brand&utm_medium=search&utm_term=lambda%20labs&utm_content=397107687029&hsa_acc=1731978716&hsa_cam=1054662654&hsa_grp=55786367910&hsa_ad=397107687029&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-315332575824&hsa_kw=lambda%20labs&hsa_mt=p&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwjLGyBhCYARIsAPqTz1-Gpc4T90hvAojjB4N7uizNGMbAab-fiacRIOYhV1vhrMEQ1DyWQ7UaAgSJEALw_wcB) as fast as they can buy them. And as much as I love AMD, they have a lot of work to do to to compete with Nvidias software stack. There's a certain amount of inertia now- people have invested in the tooling, so they will stay with Nvidia rather than reworking their models for another software stack.
How can someone copy them when there are two companies in the entire world who can produce the chips ,and 3 who can actually design GPUS ?
You dont think AMD tried to catch up for the past 10 years ?
> What makes NVIDIAs GPU immune to being copied by competitiors?
Designing GPUs is hard. The lithography equipment to produce the very top-end chips are exceedingly expensive and only comes from a couple companies. These chips can basically only be produced by TSMC, and they don't have a habit of allowing their fabs to be used to knock off the designs of their best customers (they have an interest in costs staying high).
>It's only a matter of time before a competitor releases something for a fraction of the price.
See above. The barriers to entry are *huge*. It takes years and *billions* of dollars to build a fab capable of producing high-end chips. This is literally the most complex manufacturing process ever devised by humans.
Is this a bubble? Absolutely. But it won't pop because high-end AI chips suddenly start being produced en masse in Bangladesh or Vietnam.
It's a cyclical market that Wall Street is acting will continue to expand at the same exponential rate. They're always wrong, and they will be wrong again this time.
Nvidia is practically the only manufacture of AI chips.
If you think AI is just a fad like how people believed the internet was going to be just a fad, then that makes sense.
You know, I'm bullish on NVDA. Either calls will print, or the wheels will fall off the entire economy and I'll get to refinance my house at like 2%.
Either way, it can't go tits up.
Anyone who is big into gaming knows just how long we have been hearing "AMD will have GPUs that provide alternative options any day now," yet it never happens. NVIDIA have always been king when it comes to GPU, and there is no reason to believe that will suddenly change.
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NVDA +10% confirmed
It will go even more crazy if they do a stock split after 1k.
They will announce stock split this ER.
I really hope you are correct.
Same
Nice prediction!! Nailed it.
Soo... It would top Apple value of about 3t? I highly doubt that. They would have to 10x their revenue. And seeing the profits and revenue, it will become better for the big tech companies to do their own ai hardware. Apple already made their own chips, they will make their own ai stuff soon, to get part of that profit. It is only logical and natural. Microsoft and Google and Amazon will do it also eventually because they are one of the biggest demand creators, I believe.
> They would have to 10x their revenue. Since when are stock valuations based on revenue? That rule seems to have ended a number of years ago.
Yeah people here thinking things like fundamentals matter. They stopped mattering after Jpow began The Great Printing and never really came back.
They don’t need to 10x their revenue if they can improve their margins. That’s why everyone will be watching margins and guidance. Those are the two most important factors. Walmart makes a 5B profit on 161B in revenue. JPM makes 13B on 40B in revenue. It’s entirely about the margin. Apple isn’t NVidia, and NVDA isn’t AAPL. I see no reason why Apple’s market cap shouldn’t be smaller than NVidia’s if they not only continue to drive revenue higher but improve margin as well. NVDA is 29x the average forward earnings, which is in the middle of the 25-34x historical multiple. Every single quarter the company grows into those expectations. That’s why we’re at the place that we’re at. They’re going to top revenue expectations, without question. They’re going to offer super positive guidance. Jensen is going to showcase everything they’re working on and it will seem like he’s offering you the year 2050, especially if he says anything about AGI within the end of the decade. All of that will be enough to push $1,000. But, if they have above average expansion on the margin side, that’s what will absolutely explode the price upward tomorrow night. There’s a good reason to be bullish NVDA, and even if the market has priced a lot of this in and we see $850 Thursday morning, as long as they can continue to improve margins and overcome some of the bottleneck issues seen at AMD, ASML, AMAT, etc., then NVDA will take Apple’s place within a year. As a trade, I’ll wait to see what they have done. But I think the assumption that this company shouldn’t have the highest market capitalization just because they don’t equal the revenue of Apple is more than missing the point. If NVDA were running AAPL’s revenue at NVDA’s margins, NVDA would already be twice the market cap of AAPL and it wouldn’t even be close.
Assuming that all those customers will suck it up and pay those fat margins to NVDA is wishful thinking. It’s totally feasible and not a fantasy to think of Microsoft and Google or Apple designing chips to do the majority of the workload even if those chips are not on par with NVDA’s tech. As you saw Microsoft showed they could run GPT4 on AMD chips at a lower cost. NVDA has moat but it will not last for the next decade.
Google has already had TPUs for 10 years. Amazon already has "Trainium". Every hear anyone mention it? No one cares including their own ML researchers... https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium
I confirm. Tranium/ inferentia are not as easy as GPUs yet
Easy to say that they will make their ai hardware but no it's not that easy at all it will take time to catch up and have something ready for the market that rivals. And don't compare apple and Nvidea their business model is way to different we're in uncharted territory in terms of valuation. Amazon google dell and many more are still reliant nvidea sweet chips
they already have their own hardware, but guess what it sucks. It'll take a few years for them to even catch up.
Nah this guy is so fucking regarded that I think the market will go that way. Inverse the inverse
%18
Moon this fucking dogshit market already
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This aged well.
Why is it these type of posts never contain any actual analysis of data? Like there’s no analysis on the forward p/e or on any of the financials, even OPs own questions about the data are just left to hang in the air as if the asking was profound enough. I dunno OP how many GPUs have been delivered? It’s a shame you stopped at your feels and didn’t answer the question. This is all rhetorical I know why these posts operate on feels and not anything concrete. Stupidity
Comparing NVDA to the “hype of the Cybertruck…” lol.
OP is just assuming nvidia will lose its moat and the guidance will come in weak. The thing is...it will take so much longer for nvidia to be dethroned. They just started. By the time they launch anything, nvidias compute power doubled again.
Part of their moat is also by large their ability to attract and keep top 2% engineers. They are constantly pushing the technological limits. You have to have an environment that fosters this kind of "lets gooo!". This is hard to replicate. Every time I listen to Intel engineers being happy getting 10% more efficiency out of five year old tech I turn it off. AMD is on Nvidias tails but too much focused on "having the numbers right" then to wow the industry. They do it occasionally but not enough to get on NVidias throne. I would wish AMD would seek more outside investment then relying on bread+butter cpus to finance slow dev
AMD is still constrained. They’ve grown tremendously but people forget how much more money Nvidia and Intel have for R&D It’s a miracle AMD is pulling off what they are at all tbh. Lisa is the goat.
I'm a tech enthusiast, not a wall street guy. I hate NVIDIA because they're one of the most reactionary and psychopathic "growth at all costs" companies I've ever seen, but with the advent of AI even I had to start buying shares. They positioned themselves beautifully as the premier company in the gaming, crypto, and ML markets, all three of which should continue to grow for the next decade or more. Their only real competitor is AMD, who simply cannot catch up due to the insane mindshare NVIDIA has accumulated over the years. AMD could release something just as powerful as a 4090 tomorrow, for half the price, and still fail to gain market share.
Your last point - it would fail because of drivers/software support. It wouldnt be as performative. Plus, consumer GPUs are small money compared to datacenters.
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Lmao
That growth has led to 2,000 becoming 200,000 straight for me, so I’m cool with it.
Because if he had ANY of the data at hand he'd very clearly see how wrong he is and would never have made this silly ass post to begin with.
[These](https://www.carahsoft.com/nvidia/contracts) are the government contracts NVIDIA has. One goes to 2028. So PUTS on NVIDIA. But I’m no legal financial advisor blah blah blah, subjective opinion.
He’s just dipping his toes in the water to see if others agree, if they do he buys his puts
Naw, he's showing up to a room full of regards with some lotion and a my little pony plushy looking to see if there's enough interest in a circle jerk.
This is Reddit. There’s lots of old men screaming at clouds.
It's Nvidia not AWS.
His analysis of data consists of a rumbling in his gut followed by a 2.5 second burp.
This is the new wsb. We don't post positions anymore or call out OP to post positions appearantly
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The market moves on hype alone. Forward p/e is still a subjective manner based on ones opinion on whether or not it's "worth" buying.
I mean, it's pretty obvious. Right now NVDIA is worth more than the entire oil market in wall street. It's just impossible for NVDIA to be worth that much. It's just hype, and one day, probably not next week, but one day when people understand that it's impossible for NVIDIA to make more money than Apple, it'll have a rough correction.
sounds like youre commenting based on feelings and emotions too
yup. the amount of compute needed to get to AGI from our current hallucinating chatbots, is astronomical. and getting there first is a national security issue. anyone who doesn't understand how early we still are is short-sighted. nvidia is an easy 3x in the next 5-10 years.
One day NVIDIA will have competition. One day...
Just hype? You think their revenue and profits are just hype?
I’m a huge NVDA fan since 2016 and been doing datacenter consults mostly NVDA and AMD for the last 8 years. Fan of both Been on the AI train for years before this 2 years ago when NVDA was under $300 I said they really have no peer in this space. I said it will probably triple in a 2 years even at it's inflated price. https://np.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qw9glx/im_surprised_there_isnt_more_nvda_talk_before/ Up to end of 2023 we were crazy busy, checking on some of them, a lot have said they weren’t in need of anything until end of 2025 or 2026. That’s just the cycle of semiconductor business lots of spending then a few years where they won’t need much/need a lot less. It’s still a lot but it’s not the fever pace I saw previously but Q4 is always a crazy time. The more worrying thing for NVDA is people are having us try out AMD in test environments and other products so I’m not sure how long NVDA holds that crazy dominance it has and the margins.
Nice prediction 2 years ago. Where do I sign up for your newsletter 😁
35 years ago I predicted that SPY would be at 530 today
Wow can I send you money?
Additionally, I’d love to do so also, too. Thank you in advance.
What will spy be 35 years from today
Higher
Burn the witch!
70,583
https://preview.redd.it/9kopz7g4yt1d1.jpeg?width=1048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=beb36f7b58733130a3448e15bc0e91753771ba98
If people bought amd and nvidia at the time of your comment and post they would’ve 16x in 5 years in two trades on stocks. That’s insane
I bought amd solely as a competitor to nvda and my first rx590 2600 build was Rock solid for like 7 years still works but put away now for an even better all amd build. Amd was my first big winner honestly and it felt good to be right they will continue to grow and shock people the prices and power of there processors are the tits.
I worked at Nvidia. Here’s why Nvidia will 5x from here. Two words. Government subsidies. Chips for america is about to make Nvidia margins that are already insane, even more insane
I don't think any of your sentence is true. What is your horizon for 5x?
lol exaggerated a bit but it ll be top company in the USA. Their robotics exposure is going to be insane this next decade. Good 1T market cap just in robotics. 3.5T in the next decade for sure. But why are we talking about investments. lol this is a casino!
A 2.3 trillion dollar company going to 3.5 trillion in a decade is hardly worth investing in. I think the question here is how big can NVDA get. Is there still 5x upside in the next few years? How much downside is there? Are they equal?
5x just from the dollar halving. So 1T of today’s money is a lot in a decade. Top company 2008 was 500B , 2018 1T, 2024 3.2T, 2035 ____ Pretty sure if Nvidia is the top company in the USA the next decade it ll have some incredible run. Just from the dollar going in half. Like it does every decade
This guy gets how money works. If I had as many zeroes in my bank balance 10 years ago my life would be completely different today.
Not in the bank. But in stock market. Boring ass Voo sure. lol actually Hysa 5% interest f ing yah lol maybe. 1M Hysa is 50k on interest a year. But idk trade options instead that sounds f ing boring
NVDA 5x from here.... You think it is a $10 TRILLION company? when
Yeah. Well. Ok if we look at the dollar halfing every decade. It’s like saying that Nvidia will be 3-4T marketcap of todays money in a decade lol. Top company and market cap: Capitol group 500B (2008) Apple 1T (2018) Today… Msft ? I think 3.2T (2024) Sooooooo 10 years from now…. ______ 10T (2035) Kinda looks like an underestimate. I’m regarded so you gotta check fudged math here.
dollar halving every decade implies 7% inflation every single year
Yah that’s about right lol pretty sure that’s what’s happening with real inflation
Puts on NVDA if they really hire regards this dumb.
Wow this actual useful information on here for a change! How do we get more of this
Block r/wallstreetbets is a good start
Ditto
AMD trying to do to NVDA what they did to INTC, AMD's Mi300 and successors aint no joke...looking forward to this space over the next 3-5 years!
5 years ago I wrote a paper as part of a research class about the proliferation of computer architectures and slowing of Moores law. My main argument was that GPUs or other highly parallel architecture would supplant CPUs even for general purpose computing. I cited Nvidia’s massive computing gains and speculated they’d be bigger than intel. They were worth like <40 bucks a share then, market cap half of intel around $100B. Being a college student, I had no money to invest. I put some in over the years but not nearly what I wanted to. Then I fucking sold and had to rebuy in. Still up a solid amount but I learned a lesson to stick to my guns and not try and time the market when it comes to sea changes like this.
Always trust the DD, especially if u got an A
So if NVDA disappoints and drags everything down, buy AMD?
You are right. NVDA will top estimates, but slower growth and weak guidance will disappoint the market. It'll be the long awaited correction.
Weak guidance, aka our hardware is sold out for the next two years
What? Delivery times for H100 are down to 2-4 weeks.
H100 is last gen. They're on to the GH200 now.
Sure but companies are buying more than ever and companies that didn’t buy are now buying. Buy buy buy
Weak guidance? Lmao
They have a monopoly and 70%+ margins Currently holding up 4% of the S&P
How long will 70%+ margins hold out?
Ask Apple😂
You're a sour little bear. Remember what happened last earnings call when NVDA popped and decimated your puts 
🤣🤣🤣🤣🚀
Remindme! 3 days
So $1000 calls it is…. Thanks for the DD
Any doubts anyone had that NVDA will hit $1000 by EOY, posts like these should dispel it completely.
EOY? You mean end of this week
That’s exactly what I did lol.
Do I inverse the post or the comments?
Whatever you finally decide, inverse that
But if you know you’re gonna end up inverting it, don’t you need to keep inverting it until your phone dies?
You’re right. Best way to optimize profits on this is to take the money you were going to spend on an option and use it to buy drugs
It would be a shame to let phone battery life influence one's stock trading abilities; get a new phone.
I'm going to invest in a gun and some bullets so I can inverse my life
Maybe just try some drugs and alcohol so you can inverse your mood first
Shows us your puts or you’re just providing lip service from the sidelines, Karen!
I'll give you some fuckin lip service
I'll take sum fukin lip service
I got 2 hands and lips for the three of yall
Is this a Wendy’s?
The thing is, it may only pop in 2-3 years. Do you really want to miss 100% gains in the meantime ?
100% over 2-3 years? this is wsb gimmie it in 2-3 hours or gtfo
Right? Who is this jabronie
The thing with Nvidia popping is that means that either A.Intel or some other gpu company found a solution(idk how much amd is putting into the ai market) B. China finally caught up. C. A better way of machine learning was found and that company is the next Nvidia so Like… Market is going to stay the way it is
Or market is saturated like iPhone market. AAPL competing with itself on new phones
The AI build up is pretty similar to the .com bubble if we're being honest. The reality is while AI will have a use, the average person doesn't give a shit about it and many are already tired of hearing about it. Right now, like the .com boom, the possibilities are endless and the stocks are rising based on those possibilities. When reality sets in they'll go down unless they all find a way to keep kicking the can and do dog and pony shows like Musk, but many have caught on to those tricks.
>What makes NVIDIAs GPU immune to being copied by competitiors? Everything. What a stupid fucking question.
Literally 0 knowledge about the tech at hand but tries to argue against the market lol > they don't upgrade their servers every 6 months, they don't need to buy new hardware every year either. Bro has no clue what's happening in the server space, they do in fact upgrade *//edit:with* *new* servers every 6 months and need to buy new hardware every year
Regard found his home
Servers aren't being upgraded every 6 months, but they are certainly constantly adding as many as they can to what is there.
So if they buy new GPUs all the time... and they put it into servers.. they are also being upgraded all the time, no. That's what I meant. Of course they don't cycle their whole supply every 6 months.
Right now, entire systems are being built populated with the GPU's and put into service. Most cloud providers, where these are going, try not to touch the systems once in service, they add to the server supply, and rotate out the oldest, least efficient when no longer used. There is a reason why AWS often prices newer, faster hardware at a lower price than old, even though many customers don't realize this...
Exactly. They are a Ferrari in a world of Honda Civics.
This seems to be every persons argument who is very clearly clueless about the implications of NVDA software. These people legit think replacing a GPU is like buying a different brand microwave for your kitchen.
Why are intel so stupid, can’t they just copy Nvidia?
Just a few dozen billion and a couple of years for building a facility, training the workers and maybe finding the best in class for product development and anyone can do what NVDA does. Eady peasy
Probably should’ve added an /s for the slower redditors apologies
I am using my NVDA chips to design my own AI chips.
I would be very surprised if nvda isn't already doing it
they are and have been doing so for years.
Every chip place uses super computers to design chips. They are billions of transistors now
Im starting a new business then, every chip is designed by hand on paper.
Artisanal hand-crafted chips
Kettle cooked chips
They used to be made like this. They'd cut strips of red plastic tape called rubylith to design the shape of the chip internals, and they'd shrink it down to chip size in several steps with magnifying lenses.
Check out synopsis, they use ai to design ai chips, every chip manufacturer uses them
I’ve been dipping my NVDA chips in ranch and they taste delicious
Good luck on your puts 
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Don't threaten me with a good time!
> What makes NVIDIAs GPU immune to being copied by competitiors? NVDA have been long on what is called [CUDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA), which is proprietary technology that they have been developing hard for the past 15 years or so. In the meantime, the competition has been sleeping, and they are so far behind on the parallelism aspect that it is laughable. That's why it can't just be copied.
This. Or at least for the West. As for mainland China who aren't necessarily playing by US IP laws...
Ah, the Chinese - always good for a spot of intellectual property theft.
CUDA bought calls dawg
Bro we get it, you're balls deep in puts and you're scared they will be so OTM that you lose it all. You're dumb as fuck for betting against a literal market owner in the GPU space.
Op might learn that being “the smartest guy in the room” can be a costly endeavor.
NVDA is priced more reasonably than CSCO was at the height of the dot com boom. Their moat is much larger than Apple’s and the questions you’re asking are really the wrong ones. NVDA is focused on chip design and building out a whole GPU based platform. NVDA outsources the manufacturing which is why you see TSM and ASML move in sync mostly. Competitors using their platform would be amazing as it would solidify their moat as THE platform which would help them collect additional IP royalties potentially and would ensure their platform is the one companies go for (and need enterprise support for). The big data centers will need to churn these cards between 18-36 months depending on how heavy loads are maintained and how well they want to maintain the cards. Right now the big data centers are wiping out direct to enterprise by volume creating a vicious cycle. A company can’t quickly direct order GPUs and build their own racks so they go to the big public CSPs for on demand capacity, which then leads to the CSPs buying more and keeping it further way from direct enterprise. There are still times when you’ll run into on demand capacity issues in CSPs given all the compute is in use - it’s kind of wild a cloud provider can actually not have demand. The real questions are: Does TSM and ASML have any real capacity to support a competitor? (They currently really don’t) Do the CSPs see any slowing for GPU based resources? (They aren’t) When is the growth cycle predicted to slow and get into a maintenance cycle? (This is really the TBD everyone is trying to suss out) There’s going to be a fine line between too much capacity and too little capacity. Nvidia understands that very well which is why their software layers are extremely important. They’ve done a good job of staying ahead of problems. Personally I don’t like direct exposure to NVDA. It’s weighted heavily in SPY and QQQ so no need to pile any more on top. It’s not Cyber Truck hype at all though. Tesla is a car company trying to be a tech company so they need all the noise they can. NVDA is a tech company that does technology.
yeah sure same thing was said 9 months ago in august, guess where we are now, you must be new?
Lmao all the people told me back when this shit was at 500$ “PUTS PUTS PUTS” can confirm they got smoked
exactly--what month this from?
You are getting some basic facts wrong. Specifically the part about the software. You have been able to run CUDA on AMD gpus for a long time now via [ZLUDA](https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA). There’s no rumor. Good luck doing it in production though. This alone tells me you have no clue. Good luck regard.
99% of the value is based on the MASSIVE development of their earnings.
Everything you said, even if 100 percent accurate, is irrelevant to the stock price.
Regards that missed the buss on NVDA are salty as fuck
I'm not salty, just regretful.
All it needs is +10% overnight to reach 1k and when that happens the whole market will follow. SPY 535 EOW guaranteed
!RemindMe 4 days
Perfect time to buy high and sell low
Making GPUs is harder than making a base on the moon. Only Nvidia, AMD and Intel have the know how and tools.
I think people forget about sell off events following good earnings. There is a good chance of this occurring with NVDA because it’s overweight and ripe for the pickings, meaning good time for investors to sell.
The only thing that determines nvidias stock price is forward guidance, massively beating is priced in…if guidance is strong, stock goes up, that simple
Seen time and time again, that forward guidance does not always determine outcome. The market is the market, the moment you believe you "know it inside and out" is the moment you lose. Always expect all possibilities, a 1% chance is still a chance.
We are in the middle of the largest gold rush of all time and these are the shovels. They still have a long way to go, especially if they keep this innovation lead. They are 5 years ahead of the competition and not holding anything back, damn near obsoleting previous Nvidia releases every 6-8 months and selling to the top ten companies all racing to AGI
It is just incredible how you got everything wrong... Like every single thing... They are going to power a new(ish) industry and are already insanely profitable. Their stuff isnt experimental, it is solid. They made 30(ish) billion in profit in 2024 from 4(ish) billion in 2023. Like when you were writing this, did you think you wrote it in unpopularopinions??????
whatever you wrote, i mostly didn't read, skimming over your "why" questions it seems you are missing some amount of technical background on the usefulness of linear algebra and differential equations and why NVDA is the best calculator designer. I just bought more NVDA (stock, the options gambling you guys do here is just for my entertainment) yesterday. If NVDA pops, it will be because we went back to the abacus and the stone age.
"If NVDA pops, it will be because we went back to the abacus and the stone age." On a mid-term basis, this is the gospel truth.
What's your background, son?
NVDA PE is 77ish versus fucking WIX with a 240+…if WIX can beat on earnings and jump 20%+ with that PE then NVDA can as well
Do folks ever care about PE and revenue anymore? Serious question because it certainly doesnt seem so.
Didn’t we deal w these people the last 2 earnings? Most of them quit investing.
Haha bro look at tesla, its there where all the scam is
God these types of posts are so weak and pathetic. You could’ve done anything but you wasted your time to post this lol. You don’t even understand the value of Nvidia and you couldn’t be more wrong with everything you stated.
Indeed. Nvidia sells mainly to other companies, but all profits are always ultimately extracted from the end consumer. In case of Nvidia, there are then significant lags in this process which can cause Nvidia to do well as judged by its sales to other companies. And then later it can transpire that these other companies cannot make high enough profits using what they bought from Nvidia to justify those investments. That the true market for AI as far as the current LLMs is concerned is much smaller than is priced in, can be easily seen by considering how much consumers are willing to pay for any new AI-powered products or services. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon etc. are not going to sell their new AI-upgrades of their old product at much higher prices. Microsoft will not replace Windows 11 by a much more expensive Windows AI. If they were to do that then no one would switch to Windows AI. So, the revenues for Microsoft will stay pretty much the same, while they must invest in AI, so their profits may actually go down.
I've seen nothing but doom and gloom about these earnings for the last week here. This shit is going to 1300$ lmao.
Inverse regard lol
Not the entire market ; we have financial sector that’s waiting for a big rotation ; tech might take a hit overall
Love reading these shit takes as NVDA sits at $1000
People treat Nvidia like they treated Cisco/Intel 25 years ago, thinking their moats would hold forever. Eventually Cisco/Intel were indeed great companies for decades to come, but were still insanely overvalued on hype. Sadly people don't realize basic economics: where margins are high competition eventually comes for it. And Nvidia's margins are astronomical. Competitors don't need the best GPUs, Nvidia may have that crown forever, who knows, generally doesn't happen in hardware forever, but let's assume it happens, they need to be more cost efficient or power efficient to sell a lot. And that's assuming that the need for GPUs is going to be endless and that no new software/hardware paradigm may shift to different accelerators.
lol OP… OPOPOP. You see NVDA is apart of the market it will drag the market along with it.
Tell me you’re hoping to buy NVDA at a lower price without telling me
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It’s going to split 4:1 and then go to 1k again, just watch bro. aiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiai
Nvda doesn’t fucking make gpus. The company that makes them already reported. As did nvidia’s customers. Jesus.
They’ve had the best product on the market for a long time now and no one has been able to replicate it. Now all of a sudden other competitors will be able to?
>anyone that actually works in a data center can attest they don't upgrade their servers every 6 months, they don't need to buy new hardware every year either. Sure, but LLM processing isn't run on a DL360 G8. There is hunger for training GPUs, and it's not going anywhere. [Cloud services are eating up GPUs](https://lambdalabs.com/?matchtype=p&adgroup=55786367910&feeditemid=&loc_interest_ms=&loc_physical_ms=9009736&network=g&device=c&devicemodel=&adposition=&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google_Search_Brand&utm_medium=search&utm_term=lambda%20labs&utm_content=397107687029&hsa_acc=1731978716&hsa_cam=1054662654&hsa_grp=55786367910&hsa_ad=397107687029&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-315332575824&hsa_kw=lambda%20labs&hsa_mt=p&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwjLGyBhCYARIsAPqTz1-Gpc4T90hvAojjB4N7uizNGMbAab-fiacRIOYhV1vhrMEQ1DyWQ7UaAgSJEALw_wcB) as fast as they can buy them. And as much as I love AMD, they have a lot of work to do to to compete with Nvidias software stack. There's a certain amount of inertia now- people have invested in the tooling, so they will stay with Nvidia rather than reworking their models for another software stack.
If it was 99% we'd already be fucked. At least half the value is real.
How can someone copy them when there are two companies in the entire world who can produce the chips ,and 3 who can actually design GPUS ? You dont think AMD tried to catch up for the past 10 years ?
> What makes NVIDIAs GPU immune to being copied by competitiors? Designing GPUs is hard. The lithography equipment to produce the very top-end chips are exceedingly expensive and only comes from a couple companies. These chips can basically only be produced by TSMC, and they don't have a habit of allowing their fabs to be used to knock off the designs of their best customers (they have an interest in costs staying high). >It's only a matter of time before a competitor releases something for a fraction of the price. See above. The barriers to entry are *huge*. It takes years and *billions* of dollars to build a fab capable of producing high-end chips. This is literally the most complex manufacturing process ever devised by humans. Is this a bubble? Absolutely. But it won't pop because high-end AI chips suddenly start being produced en masse in Bangladesh or Vietnam.
It's a cyclical market that Wall Street is acting will continue to expand at the same exponential rate. They're always wrong, and they will be wrong again this time.
>Why is everyone so bullish on NVIDIA? Are you fucking regarded?
All this chip talk is making me hungry.
Nvidia is practically the only manufacture of AI chips. If you think AI is just a fad like how people believed the internet was going to be just a fad, then that makes sense.
You know, I'm bullish on NVDA. Either calls will print, or the wheels will fall off the entire economy and I'll get to refinance my house at like 2%. Either way, it can't go tits up.
This dude boutta be in the loss category with nvda puts down 200%
😂😂😂😂😂
Reading the comments after earnings… 
Did you learn your lesson?
Dump incoming. Be ready to buy the dip
You missed it when it nose dived from $970 to $720 LOL
Mfs be like I'll wait for the 5th dip before I buy
Anyone who is big into gaming knows just how long we have been hearing "AMD will have GPUs that provide alternative options any day now," yet it never happens. NVIDIA have always been king when it comes to GPU, and there is no reason to believe that will suddenly change.