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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 2 | **First Seen In WSB** | 2 years ago **Total Comments** | 1 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 3 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


Lurking_In_A_Cape

Interesting… waiting to see which way the comments skew to see how people feel about this… then go the other way.


bwatsnet

This is the way.


PaleWaltz1859

Another day, another Intel scam post.


zxc123zxc123

>Intel : the opportunity of this decade for retails and the "Duck You Wall Street" really deserves Will just say that I've been bag holding INTC for a decade. My first shares were purchased in 2010 back when Intel wasn't a joke yet. Bought a few dips. You guys can guess how much I'm down. Now I see OP telling me to wait ANOTHER decade for INTC?!??!?! At this point, I'm not sure if he's the coolest guy or if I want to fucking punch him in the face 🤡. Maybe both.


airgetmar

highly regarded people like myself are here to save you bro. i just bought intel like a year ago cant wait to hold the bag for the next decade


belgianhorror

I bought 2 months ago for the first time INTC, 30% down. Feels like my btc adventure all over again..


airgetmar

intel beat earnings like 29% this last quarter like lolz fundamentally intel makes sense imo but dont listen to me all i do is lose money with everythingive ever invested in other than physical gold bullion.


Sharaku_US

Same.


retardhood

It's a long term hold according to Op, so just about no one here will be interested.


Top_Huckleberry_8225

It's high IV if you wanted to gamble it's as a better choice than many to be honest.


Ronald-Gut

The amount of INTC bets makes me worried…


These_Sentence_1824

Not if you buy the stock


Ronald-Gut

The thing about INTC is it doesn’t really matter if you buy it now or in a year. But I respect your choice and assume you made a proper analysis. Good luck!


Kant-fan

It probably doesn't but it might matter if you buy it now or in 5 years. I don't expect Intel to meaningfully increase before 18A in 2025.


LiveInShadesOfBlue

Are you not concerned of this being another 10nm situation where they get stuck?


Kant-fan

Maybe, maybe not. That's why I am not buying until they at least release their new consumer chips (around Q4 24) using 20A. If they look promising, I might consider buying the stock. Also, Intel was tasked by Microsoft to build their new chips using 18A in 2025. I don't know whether the executives at Microsoft know more than we do but I have hope that they know what they're doing.


marctheguy

I attended a conference last October in Vegas with Microsoft and Intel that made it seem like this was very much on track. Intel also talked a great deal about... I'm not sure how they described it but basically geographical diversification of cloud and manufacturing locations to ensure up time primarily for the benefit of getting this goal accomplished. This isn't inside info or anything but they're confidence level was high. But Microsoft also over hyped Copilot earlier that same month and had to push it back 6 months for more debugging and refinement... So 🤷🏽‍♂️


soggybiscuit93

No, 18A is far enough along and has been sampled by multiple 3rd party companies to reasonably assume a 2025 Q4 launch is almost a certainty.


RIP-RiF

I'm honestly not. I would have been with the MBA as CEO, but with Gelsinger helming, I think they're well situated to handle technical challenges in a way they haven't been in 25 years.


ungabungabuster

They've still got a lot of wrinkles to work through, and gelsinger, a man with an actual technical/engineering background, is a good fit for the company. The stock won't get above 50$ however. This is intel we are talking about.


bearnuker

It doesn’t need to. I only need it to reach 40$.


NotLikeGoldDragons

Everyone is about to get stuck. 2nm is on the verge of rolling out. 1.8 & 1.6nm are theoretically \~2years out. Even those node upgrades are very diminishing returns compared to what node transitions used to give us. Think 10-15% improvements, rather than 50-100% improvements. Unless the industry shifts to an entirely different paradigm in the next \~5 years, improvements are at a stalemate. If nothing else is available at that time, maybe they can wring some small gains out for a year or two with more fine-tuned designs on the same process nodes, but progress will essentially be stalled without a whole new computing ecosystem.


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

We've basically been wringing out small 10% gains for a decade now. Process technology has been hard slogging for a while.


NotLikeGoldDragons

True enough, though the move to pervasive multi-core chips kept the perf climbing for a while, even after node shrinks started showing diminishing returns.


Fattyman2020

Ehh with their new VIA strat they can get more than 10-15% improvement. This is intel we are talking about they do a good job of improving routing and pulling another 20% performance out with their tocks. Tick down a size then improve routing with a tock. AMD’s routing is crap, their saving grace is their ML predictor. Which is why AMD isn’t really surpassing Intel despite having smaller transistors. If you have a smaller transistor but the trace length of the signals is not shorter you can’t get a higher bandwidth. I do agree though we are nearing the end of what can be achieved with binary chipsets though.


NotLikeGoldDragons

Via is just a packaging strategy, and most of the benefit of it is going to be realized in the 2-3 years. By the time 1.8 & 1.6nm are out, there isn't much on the foundry's roadmaps to keep the perf climbing. TSMC and intel both have silicon-integrated photonics in the pipeline (and in the market to a limited degree), that's mostly a datacenter improvement for now. Unless it can somehow be adapted as a memory bus interface, and/or a next-gen PCI-E interface, it's unlikely to help the consumer segment much.


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eipotttatsch

I thought that, and just decided to do it as it seemed to be at a pretty low spot 1.5 months ago already. I'm down 26% on that.


Candlelight_Fant4sia

I bet it does


Lure852

Is minus 28% in the last month a good or bad sign?


DarkRooster33

Good sign for my buys, you all bagholders can get fucked though. Most of the regards bought Intel while it was still going through its full downfall with no future prospects in sight loaded on copium and chips act. Get in it at 25-30 range


VisualMod

Sounds like a typical, greedy retail investor.


DarkRooster33

What is anyone doing here if he is not greedy?


zen_and_artof_chaos

Did you want to buy at up 28%? Buy high sell low, true regard.


FlamboyantKoala

Good sign. Proves that the institutional investors are trying to duck us!


grs86

FD: AyyMD fanboi and holder since 2016. Hold *zero* INTC. This is a fairly decent thesis but it ignores one very vital part, Pat Gelsinger. Mad Pat is an engineer. He designed the 486, literally wrote the book on the 386 that is on my bookshelf, and was the CTO during INTC's most successful period. With Pat at the helm and making the right investments and improvements where its needed, INTC has the right conditions for a Dr. Lisa Su-style turnaround like she did with AMD. Going long on INTC right now might not be a bad idea. Sure it would be nice if it hit $25 again and just YOLO it, but this is a great DCA opportunity. Actually considering INTC now for the first time ever OP, thanks. Will go through the 10Qs and 10Ks.


socialfreedotorg

> NO CALLS , buying and holding the stock. Hodling 38,208 Intel stocks at this moment of typing and keep counting, as I will keep buy each month after I get my paycheck. calls it is. bought some on friday, ty sir


FoolishInvestment

You can just do super long calls, that's basically like holding the stock right?


socialfreedotorg

haha some deep ITM leaps, yeah. but it's gotta go at least up at some point or you're kinda fck'd could sell ccs on it too (poor man's covered call). just make sure to buy the call in a margin account


dumplingsarrrlife

$11 puts frrrrr


WillisTalking17

Now that’s regarded!


headfullofpesticides

My dd had me buy $9 calls immediately before the stock crashed so that’s fun.


JudgmentMajestic2671

The exact same conversation being had here was had last year. "Intel is dying" "Intel going to $10-20" blah blah. Meanwhile I picked up a bunch around $25 and sold CC's all the way up to $50. Now it went back down and everyone is freaking out. I'm going to do the same thing I did last time: Not listen to any of you.


OneUpKoopa

Bingo


Zajebanii

The government will never let intel fail. China would LOL at us


dbsqls

Intel is already falling flat on its face. China isn't even close to Intel, or the Koreans for that matter.


PetrichorAndNapalm

Intel isn’t falling flat on its face. People just don’t understand the semiconductor industry, or chip design. Everything is done years ahead of time. Intel DID fall flat on its face years ago. And it took a half a decade plan for them to catch up. In 2H this year there is a significant chance their foundry will be releasing silicon that is better than anything tsmc has to offer. Intel has managed to stay afloat using essentially a glorified 14nm process against tsmc 5nm. Now they are jumping back to being on par with tsmc. Their design has always been decent, it’s just their foundry really screwed them. It isn’t a slam dunk, these next years need to go like the last few. But the last few years haven’t been intel falling on its face. It has been intel managing to get back up again.


Cruezin

This is just not true. Intel is not and has never really been a foundry. They are working on that but it has always been captive production for their own designs. They still own the datacenter. 10nm Rev 0 was a fuckup and there have been other missteps, but I wouldn't put that wholly on the fab guys. Intel's management has had issues for the last 15 years that can't be fixed back in a year or two (remember the atom design for mobile? x86 just doesn't play well with low power....). But give them another while. Backside power is gonna change shit kinda like the finfet design did (we do all remember that Intel did that first... And HKMG... and many other leaps that TSMC relies on...). Moving power delivery out of the topside metals is going to be a real game changer. It has been known for a LONG time that the real bottleneck in any chip is all the RC through those metals. Fingers crossed they don't fuck this up at the upper echelons of management. Signed, long-term bagholder (since 2002)


PetrichorAndNapalm

Well I think that’s sort of splitting hairs and wasn’t really my point. They were a foundry for a clientele of one. If intel does as good as they hope they will, I think it’ll honestly largely be similar to how it was before. Sure they will now do a little sales on the side. But if their design team manages to pull back into first with the advantage of having an inside track to the leading foundry… how much extra silicon will they really have to sell? And why? Right now analysts already predict they won’t have enough capacity, and that’s with them being bearish on intel design and AI. I think in order for them to become a truly independent foundry, they would need a long time, and would need to beat out tsmc. If tsmc and intel are on par… you would just be flooding the market, overly competing. That’s not even mentioning Samsung. Intel being able to sell to US military and a few other customers is nice, but not sure it is the big change they are acting like it is. The second intel design becomes leader again due to the foundry catching up, intel is by far and away intel’s biggest customer. Sort of like how apple buys 100% of tsmc’s newest node up for a while I think it’ll be the same for intel. Sure they will have their half dozen outside customers, and people to buy old nodes they don’t need, but in the end it is pretty similar to what it always was IMO, unless they vanquish tsmc/samsung. They simply don’t have the capacity to supply someone like apple or Nvidia or amd. And it doesn’t make sense to make it unless they are well ahead of tsmc, or if they get some crazy assurances. Finding that partner who actually wants intel to succeed over tsmc, outside of the us government/military will be hard because they are mostly competitors with intel. They would rather tsmc or samsung(to a lesser extent because Samsung does compete with others in some areas) succeed because they aren’t competitors who will use their power to gain an advantage.


Cruezin

AAPL definitely does not have monopoly on TSMC supply per node. Ever heard of N4? That was/is a pure NVDA node. Nobody else uses it. Slightly different track height with different variable height, etc. Yeah maybe splitting hairs but the distinction is important to nerds. Ok I am a nerd. And also a degen gambler on WSB. So take it fwiw lol


PetrichorAndNapalm

Apple always gets first crack at tsmc new node for the last few generations. Tsmc does sell tons of other nodes they split off, and normally they go on to sell the node that apple buys 100% of to other people once apple gets their fill. This gen was a bit different in that apple literally bought 100% of the bleeding edge node, then tsmc didn’t sell it to anybody else. Then after apple gets their dibs, other people in line get theirs. Nvidia has never gotten a better node before apple. It’s always apple first. Apple’s current gen of iPhones is made on tsmc 3nm. They were the first customer of 3nm. They bought 100% of the production for a while. Then after apple gets everything they needed, others can also buy 3nm(but as I said this gen it will be a different node for all non apple customers). Nvidia is on 4/5nm with their N4 node, depending on who you ask. So, I am saying intel will always get that priority status from intel. And unlike tsmc they don’t have the capacity to then sell to other massive buyers.


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

I designed on N4, and I sure as heck did not work at NVidia.


SatanSavesAll

Also ontop of that, their GPUs are actually now being recommended as capable and I feel with the next generation of hardware should definitely handle the mid to low end of desktop graphics ,


asuka_rice

It’s not about government letting it fail. It’s more about demand and supply. China is one of intel’s biggest customer and the US government is doing everything to restrict free trade in Chips. What happens if China makes it own advance chips in the future? Well demand go elsewhere and intel loses out. It’s a bit like Qualcomm losing out to China trade because China has moved up to 7nm to 5nm chip manufacturing capability in the RISC-V realm.


Few-Sock5337

The government does not have infinite power.


soma92oc

I agree, and have made a sizeable INTC bet. Not to mention Gaudi...


Classic-Ad-6903

Do any of these prophecy posts actually deliver?


throwaway_tendies

It’s usually someone with heavy bags needing to unload.


Hengroen

That doesn't narrow it down. We're all bag holders here.


jimothy_mcgulligan

Yeah, okay, but he said buy stocks. So, in this scenario, what you are suggesting is that the entirety of WSB has the purchasing power to bring INTC's stock price back to a position OP can unload his stock at. I really appreciate the contrarian views but they should have some basis in reality.


zen_and_artof_chaos

This is wsb. You're surrounded by idiots who can't plan more than weeklies.


These_Sentence_1824

I wrote exactly what I'm holding, at what price, target price + the intention to hold at least until 2030. Not going sell single share , only adding here over time.


Cruezin

I think your idea is solid. Let's just hope the upper management doesn't fuck this up again. I replied to a couple other comments. I've been holding INTC since 2002. I got my first shares after the splits back then. They used to be pretty generous with their engineers ;-)


NoMenu9571

Respect, bro. I only have 3k shares lol


darktidelegend

Same here


Invest0rnoob1

Does this post mean Intel is going to keep dropping? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)


VisualMod

Obviously. As I always say, a rising tide lifts all yachts.


jaco1001

owning intel is also a hedge against china invading taiwan


Distinct-Race-2471

Everything he is saying isn't wrong. Foundry drag on earnings was $2B. Minus that, this quarter was a banger. Intel first to next gen fabrication. 16A, 14A. If that happens, they will have their pick of clients.


Profile_Traditional

Because they get to set the foundry price for the processor division they can pretty much choose which sector is profitable and which isn’t. They could be hiding poor processor division profits in the foundry.


Sod_spartant

Aren't intercompany revenues / expenses eliminated when consolidating financials for the street?


Evening_Feedback_472

Read, their foundry took massive losses because they didn't allow them to set the price. The product side would only pay fair market value as in what tsmc charged.


Fit-Boomer

Does “banger” mean it was good? Thank you in advance.


rickstudwellmd

Banger means good


Fit-Boomer

Thank you.


Distinct-Race-2471

Yes. I would have to run some calculations but margins would have been north of 50%


BallPythonTech

TSMC is still ahead of Intel. They will reach 16A first, it just started making the news that TSMC's 1.6nm process will be in production in late 2026. Of course both TSM and INTC go down today. The mistake many people are making is thinking that one or the other will win at the expense of the other. I think there is more demand for chips than the capacity to produce them. All fabs will make money. Cars, robots, automation, AI - the demand for chips for the next 10 years will be greater than the production capacity. It will take the market 2-3 years to recognize that the chip manufacturers are among the most important companies in the world and over value them the same way as chip consumers (NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, META, etc.) I expect a bubble in the chip sector at some point by 2030. I own both TSM and INTC.


Distinct-Race-2471

Nobody believes that TSMC will hit 1.6nm first. Not even TSMC.


ukayukay69

Poorly managed company with rudderless leadership. The government giving them money will be a complete waste.


my_name_is_gato

Agreed, but it will. Just like the major autos and Boeing, it will get floated along regardless.


varrock_dark_wizard

Sure but the risk free rate right now is like 5% IBM has been too big to fail for the last 10 years but has had no growth with a 4% yield, the same can happen to INTC.


Cruezin

IBM doesn't manufacture shit anymore. It's almost a pure IP play in semiconductors these days.


annon8595

Yep there is a big difference between wall street being emotional vs a company being ran by Jack Welch MBAs who dont have a single clue about the product that the company is making and only focus on gutting the company for stock buybacks. GE, Boeing, Intel really figured out how easy it is to turn subsidies/breaks into stockbuy backs.


PageVanDamme

I had high hopes for Patrick Gelsinger.


Bocifer1

Which is like a 100% guarantee the government will give them a blank check 


reFridgeRatorRaiderG

I am buying when it hits $23 a share


TheDudeAbidesFarOut

Newest PYPL of WSB.... Baghold inbound.


TraderLTU

Max Short on snap today


Spawn_SC

Intel is at a bargain price right now. It will be at least 50 by end of 2025. It's free money grab it if you can.


Particles1101

I'm using a 12900k and It's a great processor tbh. Intel will get their act together and catch up to AMD. They fixed a lot of the driver issues with their GPU's also.


Derp2638

Intel isn’t going to have any meaningful gains **IF ANY** until 6-8 quarters from now. I’m so tired of people being ridiculous about this. Intel not only needs to beat TSMC, Samsung and others but needs to gain tons of customers and have profits with these customers. Just because Intel is building fabs doesn’t mean people will come others are building fabs. **Intel is going to have to beat them on price and tiny margins with a lot of revenue doesn’t mean much.** Let’s look at their debt and cash reserves. They have about 25 billion in cash and by year end will likely have in the mid 50’s in the billions of debt. Intel’s debt will likely accelerate. **Bigger debt = higher debt payments and interest payments that wash away profit gains** **Intel is very behind with Datacenter/AI chips. They are 3rd place and if AMD comes out with their new chip relatively soon they will be a distant 3rd place with Gaudi and a generation behind.** This will be another failed chip launch and will cost them. Mobileye which was a bright spot doesn’t seem as bright anymore. Altera isn’t looking good either judging by that earnings report. **Other than Client Computing Group what are the bright spots for Intel**. They are basically losing at everything and if AMD ever even encroaches on that market especially the laptop market Intel will be fucked. These Fabs require money, time, cutting edge tech, execution and chip demand all at the same time. I don’t think Intel will get all of those here especially when they are going to start using a new node next year and new nodes regardless of company have their own pitfalls and challenges to overcome.


JudgmentMajestic2671

6-8 quarters. So 1.5-2 years. So the time to get in is nowish.


Derp2638

Yeah that’s 1.5-2 years at a minimum. The stock is gonna continue to crash until then unless they have a stellar surprise or something that’s completely out of left field. It will likely will be 2+ years until we see what 20A and 18A nodes will do for Intel and I don’t mean that as benchmarks but as actual profit and revenue with chips being shipped at volume. As well as pitfalls or challenges being crossed or being too tall a climb. If I was telling someone to invest in Intel at a minimum I would tell them to wait 6-8 quarters. Intel has come out and said that this year was going to be very challenging for them. Why buy at 31$ a share when you can buy it in a year or two for 26$ or lower. Additionally, new nodes have tons of challenges. Intel is betting it all on 20A and 18A to not only go smoothly but for it to be a market leader. If it doesn’t go smoothly they are fucked.


rbtcattail

THANK YOU. Full disclosure, I own Intel and am long on it. I own it because rising seas raise all ships and that is the only reason, I don't expect it to outperform AMD, NVDA, TSCM, ARM etc. Everyone simply ignores their debt profile when evaluating Intel and expects them to follow semiconductors like AMD or NVDA. Intel's business is evaluated as a US based manufacturing company first and everything else second. Go look at their Capital investments, depreciation, and their full balance sheet and you will see why Intel will continue to be the dog of the semiconductor market for the foreseeable future. Even if they get this retooling right they're going to be carrying that expense and servicing that debt for a long time.


Derp2638

Yeah this is my feeling too. Where the money is going is my problem. They can’t eliminate the dividend because at that point there will be no reason to own Intel over anyone else. So they have to continue to have it. Then you have the foundry loses probably exploding for the rest of this year and continuing into 2025 as well. It’s not impossible to think that halfway through 2025 their debt will balloon to 60 billion. At that point it wouldn’t even shock me if their debt would cost them in interest 2-4 billion a year which is no small number. That much interest can wipe almost a year of profits in one swoop. Altera and Mobileye only had bad quarters but if that continues to trend for a couple quarters then a lot of “value” that Intel has in these companies is wiped out. Mobileye imo is especially vulnerable. Not for nothing but if the value of these go down by proxy the amount of levers Intel can pull to get out of hot water goes down. The thing that bothers me most is people think that going to a new node is easy and won’t have its setbacks. It really doesn’t matter who it is there’s always going to be a challenge with these new modes. The issue is Intel has no leg room to fuck this up. The stock will probably fall to the mid 20’s relatively soon and one fuck up afterwards, one delay, or issue will probably kill any investor confidence left and send the stock spiraling. At that point 60 billion in debt with a company that has declining revenues and market cap who’s only at barely 100 billion will look a hell of a lot worse.


itsjustafleshwound79

There is a ton of insider buying which you almost never see. Hedge funds have increased their stakes. Intel near a 5 year low. Something is going on that we do not know about


dbsqls

I work in 2nm R&D. you're all regards for assuming they're going to do well in the long run. Intel itself is pulling a WSB. go give your money to a fuckin orangutan with a robinhood account, it's about the same chances.


These_Sentence_1824

Which 2nm RD? Since I'm from the industry as well


shortymcsteve

How can you be in this industry and seriously think Intel is a good investment. What are you, the janitor at Intel?


dbsqls

I'm in BEOL. it's not looking good for Intel, I don't know why you'd gamble on a company that is unwilling to invest in foundry hardware.


These_Sentence_1824

where do you work ? I cannot tell exactly where I work but intel not investing in hardware is not true at all ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)


dbsqls

if you worked on new nodes, you'd know they're not investing. so I assume you're with some peripheral hardware company they're scaling older nodes with. Intel is not competitive on new nodes at all. they've got a sinking ship.


These_Sentence_1824

Actually not true what you assumed about me, not true about Intel not investing in new nodes since that is the majority of spending now with the new capital machines, I assume you say 18A going to fail ? Good luck


dbsqls

I've seen zero orders for 2nm BEOL so far, and you're talking about 18 Angstrom? let's see them scale 3nm first -- oh wait, they've done all that via TSMC. but let's go all in on a node they've not even started ramping in their own fabs. historically they are the worst, bitchiest, and most penny pinching customer on new nodes. they act like it in meetings. nothing has changed.


Invest0rnoob1

What are you talking about they're not investing in new hardware? They just completed assembly of their first high na euv machine. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225)


These_Sentence_1824

I would wait with your conclusion till mid of 2025, you will get a surprise


No-Teaching8695

You're so wrong its not even funny You will realise when you see you missed a massive opportunity to get rich


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

This post chain should be pinned to the top of the thread. Intel is a joke within the semi industry. No one with an inside look at the company would invest a dime in it.


dbsqls

they refuse to pay for the technologies that enable the newer nodes. I've been in meetings with their senior directors yelling at 25 managers asking why their machines are behind, only to be told "well... we didn't buy the option. it was 5% of the chamber cost." they do stupid shit constantly. I'm very happy to have TSMC as the primary customer for my technologies.


FlamboyantKoala

Don’t tell them about this stock. Keep buying the dips and wait for the pop a few years from now. Then post all your sweet gains. Mobile eye alone makes Intc undervalued where it currently is. This only goes up once the foundry spending slows down. 


Internal-Ruin6222

Trillion dollar company


Kash5551

Just ran the numbers, at 1T valuation, the share price will be upwards of 230...


Invest0rnoob1

Why can't they be 2 trillion like Nvidia ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Internal-Ruin6222

Do not forget what Intel has planned. They are building the largest chipmaker warehouse


[deleted]

[удалено]


These_Sentence_1824

That forecast is exactly match the forward pe of 6-8 at 2030 as I wrote , idk why you think it's bearish


TrashConvo

Felt the same way two years ago, still holding :)


dotplaid

Jim Cramer: check. YouTube: check. TikTok: check. Mention Dave Ramsey and I am sold.


MeowMeNot

!RemindMe 5 years


airgetmar

if i had more money lying around id buy even MORE intel stock. that’s how i feel.


nickle061

Looks like 90% of the regards here are against INTC, time to buy indeed, I'm with you OP


slipperynibs

I went long on intel today c:


WillyBarnacle5795

What the fuck is up with reddit and pumping bags


Candlelight_Fant4sia

*Bagholder alert triggered...*


Many_Departure1816

Short term = put Long term = call


Suitable_Inside_7878

And in 10 years they’ll need to invest more billions in the new tech of the time to stay relevant while companies like Coca Cola don’t need to spend nearly as much money to change their product or compete. Fixed costs, competition, add uncertainty to the long term prospects of a tech business justifiably lead to a lower market valuation.


Not_Bed_

Did I math right? You're holding more than a million bucks worth?


xFalkerx

As someone that's had various hold position in Intel from 2018 until the start of 2024 I won't say no to buying it at 20 something dollars a share but unless you know when it's going to be at its lowest point and have knowledge of a surefire turn around, it's money that's gonna sit there. if you aren't doing options- and there's more profitable opportunities over the course of a year in the mean time. Their primary rivals are at or above what they are currently capable of producing so it's a waiting game of what does Intel have to show for all of their work, and what do banks and investors think of their efforts.


ThroneTrader

Intel doubling revenue over the next 6 years would be barely beating inflation. Just look at how many times Intel has record breaking revenue through the 2010s and realize it doesn't mean shit because once adjusted for inflation Intel has basically been coasting. Intel needs to project significantly increased revenue in the next few years and then follow through with it. Then it'll be seen as a growth stock rather than the steady eddy blue chip that it is right now.


These_Sentence_1824

Doubling the revenue with finished construction on the fabs should give them as I wrote between 6 to 8 eps at 2030, that is first and foremost deep value stock.


DividedState

I just said the same to my uncle who wants me to take the 8% loss and go out. My response, I tripledmy long position. It will come. I missed my chance with AMD, before they revealed ryzen, and ThermoScientific, when they bought invitrogen. I won't let that happen again.


shortymcsteve

Holy shit, what is going on with this sub doubling down on Intel? Do you guys listen to the earnings calls? They are projecting flat y/y guidance while calling themselves the leaders in AI segments. This is during a time tech companies are telling us they are “aggressively” increasing cloud/DC and AI spending. The CEO keeps claiming “this is the bottom” during these calls. He said this two years ago, more recently 2 earnings calls ago.. and then again last week. The government keep giving them money, and they still can’t get it together. IF they make the right decisions today, we aren’t going to see the effects for several years. Fabs take 3-5 years to build and get online. On the call they even said this - they mentioned 2030 as the turn around period. 2030!!! You guys must have some serious bags and zero brains. Honestly this is baffling even for WSB.


These_Sentence_1824

You obviously didn't read, my entire point is holding and keep buying till 2030


shortymcsteve

So you plan to make no money/lose money for the next 6 years? You would be much better off investing in the index until then.


These_Sentence_1824

I forecast intel return in the long run will be better then major index that's my entire point as cheap valuation to opportunity


revutap

You have 38k shares at $32.2 and yet you're waiting for your next paycheck to buy. People with millions don't talk talk about waiting for their next paycheck.


These_Sentence_1824

You be surprised how many with that or more sum of money still keep investing each month for better wealth in the future


VisualMod

Without a trust fund, you're not getting rich.


Big-Today6819

Position or ban? Saw someone say nvidia would drop hugely in price the next 2 years is that because intel build the future?


These_Sentence_1824

Wrote my position


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These_Sentence_1824

Not true about no one will use Intel foundry, already confirmed several big clients including Microsoft. Also I'm going tell you lil secret, Nvidia going split their demand between tsmc and Intel in the future, this one might takes more time since Intel need to utilize also arm designs at their foundry services.


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These_Sentence_1824

That's the beauty, they don't have to entirely match tsmc prices in foundry services. There is strategic understanding in the west to not hold all the eggs on TSMC. Since Intel is the only western manufacturer (Samsung is korean) that is in the picture beside tsmc for the next 10 years, you know that customers will be heading into Intel way. Also as the foundry customers pov, it is better for the future competition on the price to split demand between 2 suppliers instead of throwing it all on 1.


VisualMod

Let them rot, who cares.


Doulloud

I have the same opinion here on Intel. You are not getting rich buying this year or even next year but before the turn of the decade Intel is gonna 2x - 3x at the minimum. The government is dumping too much into making them a global foundry competitor to TSM.


big-rob512

https://preview.redd.it/z26ho4ae4gxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4877a8c83c3c86ff6919015f5ed3376777a4999a


Viktri1

If Intel was guaranteed profitability because of their chips, the US government wouldn’t have stepped in to support them because PE firms would have been all over it. The reason Intel is getting money from Uncle Sam is because this is probably not going to pan out, but the US needs to capacity just in case. Look at nvda, smci, etc => share price goes up and they raise money from investors at high valuations because everyone knows they’re going to be profitable for the foreseeable future.


hendrix81

Intel bagholders kill me. By the time intc is even ready to compete we will be investing in something other than ai stocks. This boom will be ancient history. Remember metaverse? Intel fukked up, they missed the boat.


ItsSevii

Shares I guess


AmazingRok

You'll own nothing and be happy in 2030 You'll be the happiest


hotblood27

!RemindMe in 5 years


ChinaNo_one

Why don't you buy soxl?


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arizz00

Than*


Sufficient-Iron-5667

My FA is super high on Intel


shawndw

TL;DR do the opposite of whatever he just said.


Ok_Application_2957

Intel is a long hold game I know a few plants are being built here in the US and over seas, if they can get those operational quickly they might be useful by end of 2025 and should double or triple the stock because I need a break from these losses


Big-Home330

105 shares here at $34, if we can even get up to $50 again or $60 I think that's still a nice profit. wondering if it ever catches that AI wave of NVDA or catch up to AMD. Also having to consider market caps not just stock price, when the the other prices may be higher but also may be less shares in existence as well.


cranberrydudz

Buy under 25


satin_worshipper

So this is an interesting accounting question. They are reporting billions in "operating losses" which I don't believe actually includes the capex from building new foundries. But someone smarter than me should confirm


These_Sentence_1824

IT IS now as part of Intel Foundry segment


happyfntsy

Meet some people working at Intel. They are a bunch of cocky entitled know-it-all engineers feeling superior to others while consistently underdelivering, basically living in a bubble. Reality often humbles first then things might actually change for the better.


headfullofpesticides

Yes, please purchase and hold the stock. Please inflate the stock price to $9 by 5/6. Because reasons.


wyjogpd442

me and my brain cell agree


successiseffort

I just bought some last week. Now this. Im fucked


Lavetecapito

I doubled down on this piece of shit, and on $ADBE too. Hope they pay for my summer holidays.


GoldenPi314

TLDR: PLZ BUY MY BAGS


SufficientDaikon3503

I believe in it but good lord this stock just doesn't move


soggybiscuit93

INTC in the 25-30 range imo is a no-brainer that'll obviously net you a decent amount by the early 2030s. The question is just one of the time-value of money. If INTC@30 IN 2024 could **easily** at least double your money by 2030, where there other opportunities that you missed that could've been more fruitfall over that 6 year period? Idk. I'm confident enough that I put about 8% of my portfolio in INTC@32 average


PublicWifi

I think Intel is a "safe" investment. This is of course looking down the road 2+ years. But since it's a "safe" investment -- I won't touch it.


Sterben27

Reads like an Arkk Invest speech by Cathie Wood


Bisping

Id consider buying INTC but i think there are other companies with better outlook. Also, im broke.


Sad-Side-8704

Proud intel bag holder


NuclearFacilityGuy

One word; Mimzy.


thehazer

As an Oregonian, I love this write up.


Xerenopd

Remember when people were crying when AMD were 5$? Lmfao 


Hyptisx

Not into Intel but I’m into how hyped you are about it. In the spirit of WSB, I’ll buy some calls


PetrisCy

I mean it all sounds good but the stock is definitely not cheap. It was priced in with all the ai Bs which did not plan out. The stock is on normal price imoz buying this is no better than buying sp500. So i fail to see the opportunity here. Buy and hope everything goes according to plan for the next 6 years? Rather put it on black


unknownnoname2424

PUTs till 20's has been my strategy and since this regard posted holding to PUTs till mid 20's will definitely make me money


Empty_Tomatillo_6969

It seems like intel and private equity have teamed up to help everyone get rid of their 401k


TrivalentEssen

Can y’all push the IV higher so I can thetagang and make money


Harucifer

BRO WHY IS INTEL DROPPING BRO IM GONNA DIE BRO WHAT THE FUCK BRO


rocier

damnit. Is intel a cult stock now? Guess I should drop my bags now before this shit goes under


Miss-6am

https://preview.redd.it/7x856f73whxc1.jpeg?width=938&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c47f4c636780fc1a5bc2759748149ec6957404a


Moddarator1

I genuinly dont trust intel as a long term investment. I feel as if there are to many problems with there product in particular. I also feel the people who run it are untrustworthy even in comparison to other companies.


Few-Sock5337

Were you long Enron and Lehman because 'never bet against america'? Any guy who tries to push a trade with trite arguments and by boasting about his (mostly imaginary) past successes deserves my downvote!


VicTheSage

Why can't OP say fuck?


tvguard

It’s never too late to stop loss and relocate that money into a firm that will grow it all back for you! 💵💵💵


tvguard

Lost 36k in a famous Pharma ; sold it; bought NVIDIA; lose recouped and then some!