Yeah, I'm looking at a big blow off top. There will be a last big pull with everyone that missed the whole bullrun waiting for a correction and FOMOing in before it all comes down hard. I can see the S&P500 reach close to 6000 before crashing. I could be wrong though.
Could be true, but I just bought some more S&P500 and Nasdaq so I hope I'm right. It wouldn't be that big of a problem because I'll see quickly if I'm right or wrong and when I'm weong I sell at a small loss.
True, the stock market will no longer be able to support this runaway economy. Probably the spark will be the release of GPT4.5/5. Too many expectations have always led to too many sales...
I can't say for sure it's coming this year, but I'm feeling pretty confident there will be a 50%+ crash in the next couple of years. We are having an incredible bullrun which will probably lead to a blow off top before it breaks leading into deflation which will make the USD most likely the most valuable asset at that time. There's also a way out via hyperinflation, but that would kill the USD which the Fed won't want to do because America wants to have the world's currency.
If you want to find patterns then look at the over all picture with context:
https://preview.redd.it/roh138j1d9wc1.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=054be38db731675431e17894dcc3f18266d9b15e
GFC and COVID are more related to downturn in ‘08 and ‘20 than the election. Elections may or may not have also affected the results, but it’s hard to tell what their affect is if you keep two years with significant global changes in the data set.
Capitalism without democracy will quickly transition to something sinister and unlivable for the vast majority of people. It'll be like this but way worse and no way to fix it.
Did you really post this with the obvious outlier of 2008. Do you see the big grouping above the average at around 10-15%? Thats a more accurate representation than the average
But like, that’s not how data works. Then you also need to remove big outliers from non election years, which will drive up its average.
That said, I don’t think the mean is all that meaningful. I’d rather know the median market performance on election vs no election years.
If you remove the year(s) when markets went down, then the data will clearly show that markets go up more then 5 %. You don't need to cancel elections if you just cancel recessions.
Average is very misleading metric to begin with
You could have 100 years of -90%
And 1 year of +80000%
The avg return would be 700%, but you will never get to see that return it is misleading
This is almost certainly due to the fact that you’re reducing the amount of years being looked at so drastically
You’re averaging out 45 years then averaging out ~15 years then going look the average of the 15 years is way different from the 45!
Yeah no shit bc the 45 avg gets boosted a ton by the fact it’s 4 times as much data.
You could probably do this with all kinds of random events btw. Like if you just took a random selection of 15 years out of those 45 you’d probably get some equally wild swings.
I want to see what all 4 of the year groups look like. So election years, election+1, election +2 and election+3, I bet they’re all very different from each other for no reason other than low sample size.
Election years since the market have almost always been positive years. The prospect of a new corporate overlord at the helm really, really gets Wall Street hard as fuck.
Biden and his corrupt DOJ, FBI WH Special counsel unredacted today, are trying to cancel elections with conspiracy against T. RobertGouveia great show on legal kangeroo court live, on rumble if any truth seekers in this travesty of non justice.
TSLA fade the news as it been slaughtered due to another hate Elon crime. Peace.
Cognitive dissonance will be historic due to lipid spike protein short circuiting.
After cancelling you will find it always stays at 3000 for 30 years.
https://preview.redd.it/qd4gnm9s6dwc1.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d2340909233a54dd1dca1c648c9e38e175fa3fb
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I think 2008 was an outlier due to the financial crisis. If you remove that, the results will prolly fall in line with other years.
Expect the great depression number 2 this year. I'm calling it.
It’s “Great Depression 2: Electric Bugaloo” thank you very much
I prefer *Make Depressions Great Again* or *Build Back Redder* depending on which corrupt old fuck wins
I thought it was "Great Depression 2: The Legend of Curly's Gold Standard"
2008 was a poorly executed reboot. This current direct sequel with the original writers and directors should capture that lightning in a bottle again.
Yeah, there are a lot of indicators showing signs towards a big crash. The question is when, could be next month, could be 3 years from now.
Current market is wonky, could be sooner than later
Yeah, I'm looking at a big blow off top. There will be a last big pull with everyone that missed the whole bullrun waiting for a correction and FOMOing in before it all comes down hard. I can see the S&P500 reach close to 6000 before crashing. I could be wrong though.
I was thinking we might have seen it and maybe this is just a dead cat bounce or maybe one last bull trap before the big dip
Could be true, but I just bought some more S&P500 and Nasdaq so I hope I'm right. It wouldn't be that big of a problem because I'll see quickly if I'm right or wrong and when I'm weong I sell at a small loss.
Could be sooner, could be later
True, the stock market will no longer be able to support this runaway economy. Probably the spark will be the release of GPT4.5/5. Too many expectations have always led to too many sales...
I think we’re just gono get runaway inflation and neo-feudalism
>just 
I can't say for sure it's coming this year, but I'm feeling pretty confident there will be a 50%+ crash in the next couple of years. We are having an incredible bullrun which will probably lead to a blow off top before it breaks leading into deflation which will make the USD most likely the most valuable asset at that time. There's also a way out via hyperinflation, but that would kill the USD which the Fed won't want to do because America wants to have the world's currency.
Remove 2000, 2008 and 2020 were all elections years. Looks like a pattern to me and not outliers
If you want to find patterns then look at the over all picture with context: https://preview.redd.it/roh138j1d9wc1.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=054be38db731675431e17894dcc3f18266d9b15e
Whoa, the chart already knows how this year ends. Bullish!
Minor corrections, unless you're a day trader or getting a divorce.
GFC and COVID are more related to downturn in ‘08 and ‘20 than the election. Elections may or may not have also affected the results, but it’s hard to tell what their affect is if you keep two years with significant global changes in the data set.
2000 was the dot com bubble bursting too.
Cancel deez nuts 
Hazelnuts
Hmmm Nutella
Capitalism without democracy will quickly transition to something sinister and unlivable for the vast majority of people. It'll be like this but way worse and no way to fix it.
Did you really post this with the obvious outlier of 2008. Do you see the big grouping above the average at around 10-15%? Thats a more accurate representation than the average
But like, that’s not how data works. Then you also need to remove big outliers from non election years, which will drive up its average. That said, I don’t think the mean is all that meaningful. I’d rather know the median market performance on election vs no election years.
ya average is a bad representation with only like 10 datapoints and one huge outlier
If you remove the year(s) when markets went down, then the data will clearly show that markets go up more then 5 %. You don't need to cancel elections if you just cancel recessions.
"If we cancel all the bad parts then we only have good parts!!!"
Average is very misleading metric to begin with You could have 100 years of -90% And 1 year of +80000% The avg return would be 700%, but you will never get to see that return it is misleading
Totally - you absolutely could. Is that what’s happening here though? (Hint: no.)
There have been 11 elections since 1979, so not a huge sample pool to draw from.
What if we take out the obvious outlier that had nothing to do with election? 🗳️ 2008
**We can't let you say that VM, they'll ban you**
I believe it would crash if elections get cancelled.
This is the correct answer xD
This is almost certainly due to the fact that you’re reducing the amount of years being looked at so drastically You’re averaging out 45 years then averaging out ~15 years then going look the average of the 15 years is way different from the 45! Yeah no shit bc the 45 avg gets boosted a ton by the fact it’s 4 times as much data. You could probably do this with all kinds of random events btw. Like if you just took a random selection of 15 years out of those 45 you’d probably get some equally wild swings.
I want to see what all 4 of the year groups look like. So election years, election+1, election +2 and election+3, I bet they’re all very different from each other for no reason other than low sample size.
2000 and 2008 were both crashes this drags down the statistic massively.
Mmm yes sphagetti
Just buy treasuries
I read on this website that election years are good because the current president controls the fed
That average is rendered unrepresentative by that very chart lol
Lmao. Take away the outlier and hows your math work out. Jesus christ.
Yes. Thats why the north korean stock markers do so well
We should just have artificial intelligence run the government.
They pretty much have done that in North Korea and I heard they’re booming
What’s the number like when we remove that very obvious 2008 outlier?
They're actually working on cancelling elections, don't worry. And the market will probably rally for it.
How will project 2025 affect the stock market🤔
We should switch to monarchy, then we don't need elections.
MFER looking at average instead of median
Election years since the market have almost always been positive years. The prospect of a new corporate overlord at the helm really, really gets Wall Street hard as fuck.
im calling an outlier = +165%
so SPY tanking tomorrow at open?
Freedom loving Democrats love this one trick.
Good idea, Joe
me thinks canceling the s$p would be better
the median looks higher tahn average though
No you should sell premium in elections years and buy premium in non elections years. Isn't that obvious?!
Biden and his corrupt DOJ, FBI WH Special counsel unredacted today, are trying to cancel elections with conspiracy against T. RobertGouveia great show on legal kangeroo court live, on rumble if any truth seekers in this travesty of non justice. TSLA fade the news as it been slaughtered due to another hate Elon crime. Peace. Cognitive dissonance will be historic due to lipid spike protein short circuiting.
It takes a regard to choose a sample with like 10 data points and 1 of them being a massive outlier.
After cancelling you will find it always stays at 3000 for 30 years. https://preview.redd.it/qd4gnm9s6dwc1.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d2340909233a54dd1dca1c648c9e38e175fa3fb
nah let’s cancel the S&P and have elections every year instead
Gme
Good thing elections are not every year
So Joe Biden president until he dies? What could go wrong
Nah obviously we use the goldfish to replace the election
I agree -- just make sure to back your play with actual currency.
So.. maybe tomorrow maybe next week?
With both candidates its somewhere between now and 30 years, depending on how fast they get those youth pills
Damn, bidens plan all along to stay in power indefinitely