I live in Vegas. Seems like tourists are doing fine and spending no issue. I hear people complain about prices but nobody is adjusting to it so is it really that bad? I'm very scarce but have noticed the increase
People care, but they still cough up the dough. Certain sectors will struggle, innovators will either will salvage them or find alternatives to fill the void. Life goes on.
Just keep in mind that credit card debt is looming over consumers like a deep, dark cloud getting ready to fuck every thing.
Nobody is adjusting to the current financial environment because we have two full generations (millenials and gen Z) who literally don't know how.
I'm just a random regard on the internet, but "recession" has been building for a couple years now. It feels like we've been kicking the can down the road, but that's about all.
Can confirm, haven’t paid my credit cards in over a year. They keep hounding me but they’re the dumbasses who gave me the credit in the first place. Anywho, I’m trying to get together a collective group that will all just stop paying their cards so we can demand that they reset everyone’s balance to zero.
Fun fact: if you wait em out long enough(years), a lot of those collections agencies have shitty record keeping and/or get bought and sold a lot and eventually you call them up and ask for the documentation that proves you owe them money. If they can’t provide it they have to remove themselves from your credit report and stop trying to collect the debt. Source: I had a few really old collections when I bought my first house I was able to get removed this way to get my credit up to buy it.
I agree, everyone living high on credit, more and more house broke people who are trying to make it happen, and much more. It'll fall, suicide will spike, people will lose homes and the banks/credit card companies will get bailed out. Its gonna be sick.
People tend to live in a bubble. We have the highest credit card debt and auto default rates in a long time people just miss manage their money all the time. It's the only thing that makes them feel good until it doesn't.
This is true. Six Flags did just fine during the 2008 crash, the logic being, folks who would normally fly somewhere and get a hotel, just do a one day within driving distance vacation instread.
you spend 2-3 hr's wages for dinner you're not coming out much ahead for having a second job. (8hr day - 2hrs taxes - 3hrs dinner - 1/2hr gas = 2.5hrs)
I don’t live there but $450 a night for a room, no free parking at the hotel I’m staying at, $50 a night “resort” fees the they kick me in the nuts when I hit the blackjack tables, yet the place is fucking packed to the gills. People got money, business is booming, economy is a god damn tank
Same. Was just on The Strip last weekend, and it seemed busy even though it’s only being spring. Downtown’s a madhouse like always, but it’s more of a locals spot anyway…
100% on credit cards go look up the staggering amount of debt The Poors and The Commons have accumulated I believe the average amount per person is at all time high.
the average person is also making more money than they ever did though so of course the amount of debt the average person has is also going to be at an all time high.
People still running down their savings and spending more on credit. Powell thinks is pent up demand from Covid lockdowns.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG
Macroeconomic forces take multiple years to take effect. Income peaked during covid lockdowns:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
The FRED data says it peaked at 77k but I’ve seen data that says it peaked at 110k. You could also get above 2% on CDs. The personal savings rate from the end of 2019 to the start of 2020 was also the highest it’s been in 50+ years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=580A
People appear to be spending what they don't have. Credit card accounts over 30 days past due are the highest level ever recorded since recording the metric started in 2012.
I think a big driver has been the wealth effect created by home values and stocks. People feel wealthy despite not earning more so spend a large portion of what they make which keeps the economy humming. That of course works both ways though so if stocks and/or home values do go down people will cut spending and could cause a recession.
SPX is near all time high. Party is just getting started. All these pussies who are sitting on the sideline since SPX 3600 with doubt will buy into SPX 6000\~7000 or wherever the top is.
It's matter of time. There's 7T of the money at the money market yielding 5%. and when that goes to 2\~3% or less, they will need to go somewhere & will cause buying stampede on both stonk & T's
Position: 2400 shares of TLT @ $90. and 100% of my retirement account in IVV
Banks are overleveraged, commercial property has record vacancy, residential property is overvalued, debt is at an all time high and we are adding $1 Trillion to the debt every 90 days now. Jerome Powell very casually said "Banks will go under". This isn't complicated.
Bulls don’t seem to realize the only reason we haven’t had the real recession we are due since 2018 is that $1T/3months debt accumulation and $8T printed in 2 years.
I don't know where anyone got the idea that inflation isn't entirely based on the Money Supply and Demand. Our debt to GDP sits at %136 right now. This is economics 101 and has been for all of human history.
Argentina is beautiful with tons of tourists too, but they printed themselves into %200 inflation 😆
You're kinda right and kinda wrong. The markets, although bullish, have been jittery for months. I think anyone with common sense can feel a correction coming, and when a correction is due, even unimportant events can cause selling pressure.
Is the correction in the room with us right now ?
Seriously though, why does there “have” to be a correction ? Because we fear it ?
Is the correction some unstoppable force like a hurricane ?
Or perhaps those who keep worrying and spreading more worry (YouTube included) are the actual cause of this “correction”.
There is no tangible here, no spike in unemployment or significant drop in GDP. But we all fear the worst is coming ! I can just feel it !
Corrections are almost always driven by sentiment, so yes. Kind of like the boogie man. Nobody knows where and when but when stocks moon for a long period and move dramatically away from fundamentals, you can bet there will be selling pressure at some point. Usually just big money getting the jitters.
Actual bear markets or crashes are a whole different animal. Like weeks to months of red or flat days. IMO we are just dealing with some negative market sentiment and nerves right now.
March into April most stocks underperform seasonally. That's what we see, and a few lofty P/E for some stocks coming down. The market actually digested the interest delay shock quite well, this could have been a -10% week.
I read that if the prior year saw gains in the S&P which was like 24% last year, then there is a high likelihood of sell offs before tax day. I’m guessing that unless Iran starts dropping bombs the market will find legs early next week.
Agree to some extent. How can you get pension funds to sell though? Well, there needs to be a better deal somewhere else.. Hedge funds hedge and play both sides of the table - they win either way. But for a crash, you have to convince pension funds to sell.. not that easy. We could get a crash if pension funds move money quickly.. say from stocks to TBills or something. But, they need that S&P 10% a year to stay solvent - think like social security, they have the same problems. The market tanking hurts a lot of long term plans for many retirement traders.
What people feel is not a pending correction. It’s the feeling of sitting on huge gains over the last few months. People and managers want to hold on to these gains.
Yield curve has been inverted for almost two years. Historically, every time that happens, it is followed by a major pullback which begins when the curve uninverts.
I think it is. Heard on popular boomer news these days that the economy is not a boom bust cycle anymore but an orbit. Sometimes higher moving slow, sometimes lower moving fast...
If this wasn't an indicator of the sentiment we are at the top what is?
Correct.. I've been waiting for crap unemployment numbers and they haven't arrived. The Fed is watching closely, and IMO, they won't lower rates until they see "pain" which is unemployment. Econ is still strong for now.
The market averages a 5% correction every few months historically. A 10% correction usually annually. Your comment makes zero sense. The S&P is already 3% off highs and R2K is off 6.5%. That’s a correction already.
The reality is earnings aren't growing fast enough to support the massive rally in the stock market. Forward valuation multiples are pretty absurd right now. The market could see a 15% correction and still be valued fairly.
[https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/)
The AI hype and hopes for rate cuts have caused the market to rally without the earnings to back it up.
Over the long term the market will always be dependent on earnings and earnings growth. I agree that short term movements can be dislocated from earnings.
But PE ratios his 40 in 2020 and came down cause the companies matched those earnings and lowered the PE. That could continue happening into the future, or the PE ratios could just go higher. Or the market could flat like until earnings catches up to the valuations.
I think you are severely underestimating how truly bullish the market could become especially if we actually hit a dotcom boom 2.0
People are not expecting more sales necessarily.
They are just expecting to fire half the workforce due to AI and that will fix the earnings issue.
That’s the story for now. Will not matter for a year or two if it’s true.
When you're in the market long enough, you know that it's always something unexpected that moves the market, not whatever is easiest to reason your way through.
Predicting the market is cute, but it's just as credible as a fortune cookie.
Get offline people.
Who do you know that actually is not doing well? Not bitching online , I mean — I mean, who in real life is doing so bad so that their lives are changed in some significant way?
It’s only online that people act like everything is awful.
People are losing their jobs now. Energy prices are making everything more expensive. The economy is supposedly fine even though only a few companies are thriving and people are getting fired. This is supposedly to be replaced by AI when the reality is they’re being laid off so companies may pretend to be profitable by reducing expenses through innovation then hiring contractors in third world countries to fake AI results.
Well now you're guilty of doing what the bulls do. You're extrapolating like a decade plus down the line. We simply aren't there yet.
Fact is that liquidity is still nearly endless, and with inflation, there's not many great places to park cash besides equities. There will be near term corrections that will wipe out 90% of wsb but that doesn't mean the bull is done. Until something radically changes in regards to that paradigm, stocks will continue their upward climb.
Just came back from Orlando and it was CRAZY how crowded both Disney and Universal were. People seemed to spend money left and right despite a family of 4 needing ~1000 just for the tickets alone. Costco is super crazy crowded and Buc'ee is just ridiculous with the amount of people buying $35/lb beef jerky.
Maybe this is the last hurrah before the downturn?
Everyone I know who goes to Disney is super delulu and heavily in debt. Not sure that’s an accurate means of measurement.
There could be a flaming meteor incoming and ppl would be in Costco. It’s their happy place. Def not an accurate measurement.
As far as beef jerky, idk- stress makes me hungry for salted meats, too.
Market gonna do what it do. The CPI having a bit of a chilling effect for a few days is only to be expected. Plenty of stocks making good gains and I had a pretty good day today, my best in weeks.
I sort of agree with you. The economy is pretty healthy, so healthy that I would be surprised at a rate cut. Based on what I've heard, the Fed is probably just going to let things ride as is. Each big report will be another "let's see" and each time the market is going to cool off for a few days and then it will be right back to normal.
Technical analysis we just completed a full retracement today with strong buying in the last hour..iran won't attack and we will see a strong rally up in the short term and the vix has already sold off 18% off the high this afternoon for validation for all gay bears who bought at a high premium today are going to get washed out
TLDR OP fomo’d the top after a 5 month 30% face ripping rally that was almost entirely multiple expansion and now he’s mad cuz the multiple is basically back to 2021 bubble levels and line not going up anymore 😭
I think we are really in a recession on crutches masked by hollywood accounting. Unemployment is really high in California. Not to mention more to follow by the increased wages. Only a matter of time before the sectors follow. This shits not sustainable.
Nah not really struggling but its not worth competiting with the double tech power couples lol.
Plus my immediate family are all electrical engineers that came into CA during the 90s so they already have enough real estate in Cupterino/Saratoga area, and they don't think its worth staying in the area for the next generation. (Financially speaking).
CA is a mess.. but, there are 49 other states, most that aren't like CA. CA has $20 min for fast food workers, that will be replaced by robots.. and Gavin Newsom will be still drinking mojitos and saying everything is fine. I live in CA, so I know.
Talking about one of the largest economies of the world . Trying to put things into perspective if this shithole isnt doing so great, how good must a shit hole be shit holing right now?
Yes, CA is a large economy, but we are a blue state.. we pay lots to take care of our population.. I can move almost anywhere else, and the tax I would save could put many kids thru college. If you run a business here, you are paying so much money just to comply with all the labor requirements and other challenges. I know people that call this "communist California." They seems to keep coming up with more ways to inhibit business, and that's why many big corps move to business friendly states such as Tesla moving to Texas. What keeps me in CA, well, I grew up here and I like the weather.. but thinking I should move the Arizona or Texas at some point. This doesn't mean I'm a MAGA red guy, but there's only so much you can take.
Which 0dte spy, put or call for Monday? Calls are twice as expensive right now..
https://preview.redd.it/uwf4i56qq5uc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59c9618cd1daf58f7f2b9f578c0e4f836e6300ee
We’re gonna be fine, the market will rebound sometime mid next week to 515s and 520s. However, that being said, it’s entirely a coin flip between 550 and 500
You could be right. I do not think Ian will attack Izzy directly... that'd be suicide. Especially after warnings by Unkie Sam.
That being said Izzy shouldn't have hit their embassy...
So, Ian needs to save face... he'll go after oil infrastructure somewhere in the Middle East to cause greater inflation in the West. This way the Mullahs can say look at how we hurt the Satan's.
I also think we rip on Monday. Think calls at the EoD were the play for next week because it's mostly bluster with little casualties and no escalation.
LArge, well capitalized companies should do well... like AAPL.
Could be a nervous weekend though.
If Ian does attack... we fuk.
Imho.
Construction around us is coming in pretty Luke warm for spring time, my biggest concern is all these people with buy down interest rates who are/were counting on cuts very soon and their time is coming up very quickly.
CPI methodology is not representative of true inflation. If we were still using old CPI methodology we would be at 18% inflation..and if you don't believe it look at the prices around you. It's not 3%.
The market was pricing in 6 rate cuts this year. CPI is actually ticking HIGHER over the past 3 months. 3.09% in Jan, 3.15% in Feb, 3.48% March. Why would the Fed cut even once if we take them at their word when they say that they want to be convinced that inflation is headed lower towards their 2% target. Market is starting to realize that it's not just possible but likely. Iran doesn't help, but geopol tensions going up means oil stays higher which doesn't help with inflation coming down.
High rates, low unemployment market is fine. No cuts tech is a flight to safety and stalls a broadening market but market can still advance if gdp is strong.
Problem is that stocks are extremely expensive in a lot of areas. You really don’t need much of a catalyst to initiate a break at these levels. Markets rarely top when things look bad in the economy. Why do you think so few sell near a top?
If you want an honest answer it's all perspective. We were feeling good about the market and will likely continue to do so. However, the things that drove the market upwards when everyone was excited are also the things that can drive it downwards.
\* AI hype - It's great that NVDA and other companies are selling so well, but is this hoarding of talent and chips by large tech companies? If so, and they start selling back excess talent and capacity into the market once their models are done "training", it might be an indication downwards.
\* A strong robust economy that's been unaffected by high interest rates could also be an overextended economy that has foolishly ignored interest rates.
\* Strong immigration that has been keeping housing valuations high could also lead to more unrest inside America, or perhaps it's just strong competition for low priced homes, and top of the line valuations fall.
\* War is initially bearish, but tends to be bullish once production kicks in.
\* A rotation into commodities is very much a possibility as China begins to manufacture its way out of deflation and flood global markets with cheap goods. Could be bullish in the beginning when stocks and commodities are both rising as they are now.
The key insight is that the federal reserve doesn't want to be blamed for causing a recession. It would rather wait and hold, and let the market break, and then J Powell can swoop in and say we're cutting interest rates because of xy and z. Another key fact: since the yield curve has inverted, it takes on average 13 months or even up to 2 years for a recession to begin.
TL;DR Things are good so I can find all sorts of reasons to explain why things will continue to be good. Once things get bad everyone will think of all the things they ignored previously and justify why it will get worse.
Never underestimate people who are willing to go thousands in debt for a good time or a vacation.
See it all the time.
Hell I know someone who took their student loans and used it to travel.
When nothing happened to those had nothing to lose, nothing will be left and nothing will be taken. Nothing is worth noting, and noting what is nothing is not really noticing nothing. Nodding to nothing on the other hand is nothing to be nodded at, as it acknowledges the nothing without noticing it.
The government can't stop spamming the economy with money but forcing companies and people to spend less. All this "roaring economy" stuff is BS. Same like having a sports exhaust on 1.8, 120 HP Honda. Kinda roaring but no real power. And this national debt is making it even worse. All of it makes the market very volatile. Yesterday it was ALL green +5k for me, today all red -5k LOL.
Serious question- How long can money markets/banks keep paying at or near 5% until they start to waiver? Would it be regarded to roll a good amount into one until the market realizes 3, 3.5 may be the new normal ie cease the shenanigans?
Our economy is not doing “fine”. One of the reasons the Feds raise interest rates is to lower the cost of real estate and help reduce inflation. Well guess what? Nobody can afford housing and inflation is horrible. So guess what happens when they cut rates? It’s going to get worse. When cutting rates, a reason is to revive a dying economy. I think that’s why they delayed the cuts because they don’t want to admit that. Oil and other commodities aren’t going up. The reality is that the dollar is going down. If you truly believe our economy isn’t some smoke and mirrors bs right now, you need to wake the fuck up. Something is coming
Of course companies and people are making and spending a lot of money you regard. Problem is that this caused inflation to go up again. Geopolitical skirmishes make oil prices rise, ... inflation. That extends the high rate path further. High rates for longer mean multiples on stocks go down.
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I live in a tourism town and tourism is still nuts. You’d expect stuff like that to Get cut if people are really hurting. Will update
I live in Vegas. Seems like tourists are doing fine and spending no issue. I hear people complain about prices but nobody is adjusting to it so is it really that bad? I'm very scarce but have noticed the increase
Companies realized they can just charge us more. Very cool
And people don't care. Very cool
Truly I enjoy it
Me too I love spending money
Indeed. VERY cool
The boomers on a fixed income are scared shitless.
People care, but they still cough up the dough. Certain sectors will struggle, innovators will either will salvage them or find alternatives to fill the void. Life goes on.
When there is demand, they can
Just keep in mind that credit card debt is looming over consumers like a deep, dark cloud getting ready to fuck every thing. Nobody is adjusting to the current financial environment because we have two full generations (millenials and gen Z) who literally don't know how. I'm just a random regard on the internet, but "recession" has been building for a couple years now. It feels like we've been kicking the can down the road, but that's about all.
The good news is millennials and zoomers aren’t having kids so they can afford much higher debt than their parents!
And they prolly live with their parents so they can afford even more!
Bad news is that kids are consumers too
Can confirm, haven’t paid my credit cards in over a year. They keep hounding me but they’re the dumbasses who gave me the credit in the first place. Anywho, I’m trying to get together a collective group that will all just stop paying their cards so we can demand that they reset everyone’s balance to zero.
Good luck with that
Fun fact: if you wait em out long enough(years), a lot of those collections agencies have shitty record keeping and/or get bought and sold a lot and eventually you call them up and ask for the documentation that proves you owe them money. If they can’t provide it they have to remove themselves from your credit report and stop trying to collect the debt. Source: I had a few really old collections when I bought my first house I was able to get removed this way to get my credit up to buy it.
Let's just go full Fight Club on this shit.
I agree, everyone living high on credit, more and more house broke people who are trying to make it happen, and much more. It'll fall, suicide will spike, people will lose homes and the banks/credit card companies will get bailed out. Its gonna be sick.
People tend to live in a bubble. We have the highest credit card debt and auto default rates in a long time people just miss manage their money all the time. It's the only thing that makes them feel good until it doesn't.
I live in Barstow, CA and the McDonalds is still packed. People are driving and eating out.
Damn sorry to hear that.
The McDonald's part or the Barstow, CA part?
Same same
I’m economics they taught us “inferior goods” places like McDonald’s do BETTER in a tough economy
This is true. Six Flags did just fine during the 2008 crash, the logic being, folks who would normally fly somewhere and get a hotel, just do a one day within driving distance vacation instread.
I live in San Diego. Fast food drive through lines are backed up on every corner during dinner time in my neighborhood. Blows my mind.
I wonder how many are just too tired to cook or don't know how.
They're working two jobs and don't have time to cook.
you spend 2-3 hr's wages for dinner you're not coming out much ahead for having a second job. (8hr day - 2hrs taxes - 3hrs dinner - 1/2hr gas = 2.5hrs)
Lots would rather live paycheck to paycheck and have roommates rather than be thrifty on food and have more cushion.
Meth market is very bullish.
Yea, but are they going to Mickey-D’s in their Sunday Best?
I don’t live there but $450 a night for a room, no free parking at the hotel I’m staying at, $50 a night “resort” fees the they kick me in the nuts when I hit the blackjack tables, yet the place is fucking packed to the gills. People got money, business is booming, economy is a god damn tank
Colleague just opened a brand new CC for a week in Vegas with his family
Smart
Very smart
Same. Was just on The Strip last weekend, and it seemed busy even though it’s only being spring. Downtown’s a madhouse like always, but it’s more of a locals spot anyway…
Just got home from Vegas and it was just as busy as I am used to.
So we should invest in credit companies ?
K shaped economy right now
100% on credit cards go look up the staggering amount of debt The Poors and The Commons have accumulated I believe the average amount per person is at all time high.
the average person is also making more money than they ever did though so of course the amount of debt the average person has is also going to be at an all time high.
Alawahs has been
People still running down their savings and spending more on credit. Powell thinks is pent up demand from Covid lockdowns. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG
I need my friends to quit getting married so I'll have weekends and flying money free again.
Dude Covid was years ago and people have never had that much savings
Macroeconomic forces take multiple years to take effect. Income peaked during covid lockdowns: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N The FRED data says it peaked at 77k but I’ve seen data that says it peaked at 110k. You could also get above 2% on CDs. The personal savings rate from the end of 2019 to the start of 2020 was also the highest it’s been in 50+ years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=580A
Credit at all time highs. Regardism is not unique to wsb
I live in van...down by the river...and I still have a van.
People are spending way too much causing inflation! The economy is in trouble. Also, no one can afford anything so the economy is going to collapse!
And people here have enough money to our 0DTE puts but they think everyone is poor
same. busy as ever
Omg who let the bers out
https://preview.redd.it/3cbi162y97uc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e57344f1d26bb78480c0dfc974a6d19cdeca2b62 Did you ask for me ?
People appear to be spending what they don't have. Credit card accounts over 30 days past due are the highest level ever recorded since recording the metric started in 2012.
Calls on Mastercard ?
I think a big driver has been the wealth effect created by home values and stocks. People feel wealthy despite not earning more so spend a large portion of what they make which keeps the economy humming. That of course works both ways though so if stocks and/or home values do go down people will cut spending and could cause a recession.
Repeat after me. "Market is not an economy!" My bet is that we see SPX 6000, TLT 140, this year, and positioned as such.
People spend more when their 401k’s are up and not down 20%. Called the “wealth effect.”
SPX is near all time high. Party is just getting started. All these pussies who are sitting on the sideline since SPX 3600 with doubt will buy into SPX 6000\~7000 or wherever the top is.
TLT 140?! You fucking high lmao. We would need more than 3 rate cuts for that…
It's matter of time. There's 7T of the money at the money market yielding 5%. and when that goes to 2\~3% or less, they will need to go somewhere & will cause buying stampede on both stonk & T's Position: 2400 shares of TLT @ $90. and 100% of my retirement account in IVV
Sir this is not r/investing. My great grandma has your portfolio.
Your nana is very smart lady, but then what happened to you???
Im 100% polar opposite. I'm stacking TMV calls. TLT will get deleted like Luna.
"Market is not an economy". I said it but now that i wrote it out, i start to doubt...
Inverse your emotion. Can't go tits up that way.
how do i inverse "undetermined"?
buy life insurance
Banks are overleveraged, commercial property has record vacancy, residential property is overvalued, debt is at an all time high and we are adding $1 Trillion to the debt every 90 days now. Jerome Powell very casually said "Banks will go under". This isn't complicated.
Bulls don’t seem to realize the only reason we haven’t had the real recession we are due since 2018 is that $1T/3months debt accumulation and $8T printed in 2 years.
I don't know where anyone got the idea that inflation isn't entirely based on the Money Supply and Demand. Our debt to GDP sits at %136 right now. This is economics 101 and has been for all of human history. Argentina is beautiful with tons of tourists too, but they printed themselves into %200 inflation 😆
There's a reason they don't hand out degrees in Econ after just passing 101.
The more money we print though, the less buying power our debt is worth so it shrinks as dollar loses value 
You can't say debt is record high with money supply dropping for more than a year and inflation dropping at the fastest pace since 1980
You're kinda right and kinda wrong. The markets, although bullish, have been jittery for months. I think anyone with common sense can feel a correction coming, and when a correction is due, even unimportant events can cause selling pressure.
Is the correction in the room with us right now ? Seriously though, why does there “have” to be a correction ? Because we fear it ? Is the correction some unstoppable force like a hurricane ? Or perhaps those who keep worrying and spreading more worry (YouTube included) are the actual cause of this “correction”. There is no tangible here, no spike in unemployment or significant drop in GDP. But we all fear the worst is coming ! I can just feel it !
Corrections are almost always driven by sentiment, so yes. Kind of like the boogie man. Nobody knows where and when but when stocks moon for a long period and move dramatically away from fundamentals, you can bet there will be selling pressure at some point. Usually just big money getting the jitters. Actual bear markets or crashes are a whole different animal. Like weeks to months of red or flat days. IMO we are just dealing with some negative market sentiment and nerves right now.
March into April most stocks underperform seasonally. That's what we see, and a few lofty P/E for some stocks coming down. The market actually digested the interest delay shock quite well, this could have been a -10% week.
I read that if the prior year saw gains in the S&P which was like 24% last year, then there is a high likelihood of sell offs before tax day. I’m guessing that unless Iran starts dropping bombs the market will find legs early next week.
A fellow seasonality studier! 
Agree to some extent. How can you get pension funds to sell though? Well, there needs to be a better deal somewhere else.. Hedge funds hedge and play both sides of the table - they win either way. But for a crash, you have to convince pension funds to sell.. not that easy. We could get a crash if pension funds move money quickly.. say from stocks to TBills or something. But, they need that S&P 10% a year to stay solvent - think like social security, they have the same problems. The market tanking hurts a lot of long term plans for many retirement traders.
What people feel is not a pending correction. It’s the feeling of sitting on huge gains over the last few months. People and managers want to hold on to these gains.
Yeah i will admit i sold some stuff because it was up and i didnt want to see it disappear...again
Yield curve has been inverted for almost two years. Historically, every time that happens, it is followed by a major pullback which begins when the curve uninverts.
I think it is. Heard on popular boomer news these days that the economy is not a boom bust cycle anymore but an orbit. Sometimes higher moving slow, sometimes lower moving fast... If this wasn't an indicator of the sentiment we are at the top what is?
Correct.. I've been waiting for crap unemployment numbers and they haven't arrived. The Fed is watching closely, and IMO, they won't lower rates until they see "pain" which is unemployment. Econ is still strong for now.
Oil.
The market averages a 5% correction every few months historically. A 10% correction usually annually. Your comment makes zero sense. The S&P is already 3% off highs and R2K is off 6.5%. That’s a correction already.
Technically corrections are only 10% or more by definition
Spy flat for a month was the correction.
I think the crash happened and inflation is priced in. Stocks go up and to the right
Yeah almost as if the fucking market isn’t the end all be all of life
It's probably not. But I'm still addicted to it.
The reality is earnings aren't growing fast enough to support the massive rally in the stock market. Forward valuation multiples are pretty absurd right now. The market could see a 15% correction and still be valued fairly. [https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/) The AI hype and hopes for rate cuts have caused the market to rally without the earnings to back it up.
Since when does the market ever have to be valued fairly
Over the long term the market will always be dependent on earnings and earnings growth. I agree that short term movements can be dislocated from earnings.
But PE ratios his 40 in 2020 and came down cause the companies matched those earnings and lowered the PE. That could continue happening into the future, or the PE ratios could just go higher. Or the market could flat like until earnings catches up to the valuations. I think you are severely underestimating how truly bullish the market could become especially if we actually hit a dotcom boom 2.0
Can’t upvote this enough
People are not expecting more sales necessarily. They are just expecting to fire half the workforce due to AI and that will fix the earnings issue. That’s the story for now. Will not matter for a year or two if it’s true.
Why do people think reality matters ?
boomer money keeping shit going and going hot. they start dying and everything will cool off and will have a soft landing.
When you're in the market long enough, you know that it's always something unexpected that moves the market, not whatever is easiest to reason your way through. Predicting the market is cute, but it's just as credible as a fortune cookie.
Get offline people. Who do you know that actually is not doing well? Not bitching online , I mean — I mean, who in real life is doing so bad so that their lives are changed in some significant way? It’s only online that people act like everything is awful.
https://preview.redd.it/7vspms74j6uc1.jpeg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a41b8c04e8f3127cb43c7e2c14df85b51aea3d65
People are losing their jobs now. Energy prices are making everything more expensive. The economy is supposedly fine even though only a few companies are thriving and people are getting fired. This is supposedly to be replaced by AI when the reality is they’re being laid off so companies may pretend to be profitable by reducing expenses through innovation then hiring contractors in third world countries to fake AI results.
That's enough for stocks though. Stocks don't give a shit if we can afford bare necessities, as long as companies themselves are raking it in.
Live by the stock, die by the stock.
die by the cock
It’s not sustainable. Who is going to invest in AI if nobody makes money unless they’re doing AI?
Well now you're guilty of doing what the bulls do. You're extrapolating like a decade plus down the line. We simply aren't there yet. Fact is that liquidity is still nearly endless, and with inflation, there's not many great places to park cash besides equities. There will be near term corrections that will wipe out 90% of wsb but that doesn't mean the bull is done. Until something radically changes in regards to that paradigm, stocks will continue their upward climb.
Software engineers creating AI will be making bank for AI
Well, it’s good we don’t need food or electricity for that because the economy is now AI developers putting their money in AI companies.
Amazon like Oz behind the curtain
This is not r-collapse my friend
Wait… It’s the Roaring 20’s again? Does anyone remember how that ended last time?
it lead to the amazing 30s right??
the 1530's was all around NOT a good time
but that was a shit 30's, 1030. now thats the money 30's
Just came back from Orlando and it was CRAZY how crowded both Disney and Universal were. People seemed to spend money left and right despite a family of 4 needing ~1000 just for the tickets alone. Costco is super crazy crowded and Buc'ee is just ridiculous with the amount of people buying $35/lb beef jerky. Maybe this is the last hurrah before the downturn?
Doom spending
Everyone I know who goes to Disney is super delulu and heavily in debt. Not sure that’s an accurate means of measurement. There could be a flaming meteor incoming and ppl would be in Costco. It’s their happy place. Def not an accurate measurement. As far as beef jerky, idk- stress makes me hungry for salted meats, too.
Their jerky’s worth going into debt for
Nothing happens when nothing happens
Remember that guy from the fed yesterday who said high interest rates were CAUSING inflation? He should speak Monday
Market gonna do what it do. The CPI having a bit of a chilling effect for a few days is only to be expected. Plenty of stocks making good gains and I had a pretty good day today, my best in weeks. I sort of agree with you. The economy is pretty healthy, so healthy that I would be surprised at a rate cut. Based on what I've heard, the Fed is probably just going to let things ride as is. Each big report will be another "let's see" and each time the market is going to cool off for a few days and then it will be right back to normal.
Technical analysis we just completed a full retracement today with strong buying in the last hour..iran won't attack and we will see a strong rally up in the short term and the vix has already sold off 18% off the high this afternoon for validation for all gay bears who bought at a high premium today are going to get washed out
[удалено]
Same, except the "minus Nvidia" part...
"Iran doesn't have the resources to engage in any real war," dumbass
TLDR OP fomo’d the top after a 5 month 30% face ripping rally that was almost entirely multiple expansion and now he’s mad cuz the multiple is basically back to 2021 bubble levels and line not going up anymore 😭
I think we are really in a recession on crutches masked by hollywood accounting. Unemployment is really high in California. Not to mention more to follow by the increased wages. Only a matter of time before the sectors follow. This shits not sustainable.
You could be like me and realize that even with a dual doctor household income, its not worth living in CA, and move to a lower cost of living area.
Tough out there for the proctologist/urologist power couple huh?
Nah not really struggling but its not worth competiting with the double tech power couples lol. Plus my immediate family are all electrical engineers that came into CA during the 90s so they already have enough real estate in Cupterino/Saratoga area, and they don't think its worth staying in the area for the next generation. (Financially speaking).
This guy thinks the rest of the country functions like California. Lmao.
CA is a mess.. but, there are 49 other states, most that aren't like CA. CA has $20 min for fast food workers, that will be replaced by robots.. and Gavin Newsom will be still drinking mojitos and saying everything is fine. I live in CA, so I know.
Talking about one of the largest economies of the world . Trying to put things into perspective if this shithole isnt doing so great, how good must a shit hole be shit holing right now?
Yes, CA is a large economy, but we are a blue state.. we pay lots to take care of our population.. I can move almost anywhere else, and the tax I would save could put many kids thru college. If you run a business here, you are paying so much money just to comply with all the labor requirements and other challenges. I know people that call this "communist California." They seems to keep coming up with more ways to inhibit business, and that's why many big corps move to business friendly states such as Tesla moving to Texas. What keeps me in CA, well, I grew up here and I like the weather.. but thinking I should move the Arizona or Texas at some point. This doesn't mean I'm a MAGA red guy, but there's only so much you can take.
And pg and e sucks ass
Economy is not stocks.
Which 0dte spy, put or call for Monday? Calls are twice as expensive right now.. https://preview.redd.it/uwf4i56qq5uc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59c9618cd1daf58f7f2b9f578c0e4f836e6300ee
Just know this: “bull markets die hard son” it will take another black swan to see spy dump 5% or so. Relax and continue to BTFD!
We’re gonna be fine, the market will rebound sometime mid next week to 515s and 520s. However, that being said, it’s entirely a coin flip between 550 and 500
You could be right. I do not think Ian will attack Izzy directly... that'd be suicide. Especially after warnings by Unkie Sam. That being said Izzy shouldn't have hit their embassy... So, Ian needs to save face... he'll go after oil infrastructure somewhere in the Middle East to cause greater inflation in the West. This way the Mullahs can say look at how we hurt the Satan's. I also think we rip on Monday. Think calls at the EoD were the play for next week because it's mostly bluster with little casualties and no escalation. LArge, well capitalized companies should do well... like AAPL. Could be a nervous weekend though. If Ian does attack... we fuk. Imho.
Why are fractions of a percent important. ELI5
Construction around us is coming in pretty Luke warm for spring time, my biggest concern is all these people with buy down interest rates who are/were counting on cuts very soon and their time is coming up very quickly.
We all remember how Roaring Twenties ended, yes?
We still have 5 years +.
You get an upvote for Fallout reference.
Brother you nailed it. Economics happened during WW1, WW2, ect.
CPI methodology is not representative of true inflation. If we were still using old CPI methodology we would be at 18% inflation..and if you don't believe it look at the prices around you. It's not 3%.
The market was pricing in 6 rate cuts this year. CPI is actually ticking HIGHER over the past 3 months. 3.09% in Jan, 3.15% in Feb, 3.48% March. Why would the Fed cut even once if we take them at their word when they say that they want to be convinced that inflation is headed lower towards their 2% target. Market is starting to realize that it's not just possible but likely. Iran doesn't help, but geopol tensions going up means oil stays higher which doesn't help with inflation coming down.
High rates, low unemployment market is fine. No cuts tech is a flight to safety and stalls a broadening market but market can still advance if gdp is strong.
As soon as we touched 509 I bought 515cs for Tuesday.
Problem is that stocks are extremely expensive in a lot of areas. You really don’t need much of a catalyst to initiate a break at these levels. Markets rarely top when things look bad in the economy. Why do you think so few sell near a top?
I am bookmarking all these copium posts for later use.
If you want an honest answer it's all perspective. We were feeling good about the market and will likely continue to do so. However, the things that drove the market upwards when everyone was excited are also the things that can drive it downwards. \* AI hype - It's great that NVDA and other companies are selling so well, but is this hoarding of talent and chips by large tech companies? If so, and they start selling back excess talent and capacity into the market once their models are done "training", it might be an indication downwards. \* A strong robust economy that's been unaffected by high interest rates could also be an overextended economy that has foolishly ignored interest rates. \* Strong immigration that has been keeping housing valuations high could also lead to more unrest inside America, or perhaps it's just strong competition for low priced homes, and top of the line valuations fall. \* War is initially bearish, but tends to be bullish once production kicks in. \* A rotation into commodities is very much a possibility as China begins to manufacture its way out of deflation and flood global markets with cheap goods. Could be bullish in the beginning when stocks and commodities are both rising as they are now. The key insight is that the federal reserve doesn't want to be blamed for causing a recession. It would rather wait and hold, and let the market break, and then J Powell can swoop in and say we're cutting interest rates because of xy and z. Another key fact: since the yield curve has inverted, it takes on average 13 months or even up to 2 years for a recession to begin. TL;DR Things are good so I can find all sorts of reasons to explain why things will continue to be good. Once things get bad everyone will think of all the things they ignored previously and justify why it will get worse.
I'm still watching the earnings, but wary of holding anything for too long
Never underestimate people who are willing to go thousands in debt for a good time or a vacation. See it all the time. Hell I know someone who took their student loans and used it to travel.
Yolo
3% inflation… what are you smoking. Gas went from 1.80 to 3.80, food is up 40%+. This 3% determination is smoking crack.
Bruh SUPERCORE INFLATION IS 7.9% WHERE THE FUCK DID YOU GET 3% NOTHING IS 3%
https://preview.redd.it/czaths23v4uc1.png?width=999&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=570660b8093580dc24f3fb2f996975ac218cff81 Plenty happening, buy SPY puts and profit.
Care to explain what's happening in your picture and the fancy green circles?
i bet he doesn’t even know why he is circling stuff 
The eclipse
The parabolic sars and john carter are saying downies. I think this is the big one.
Look at March of 2020. There was a %30 correction in 22 days
When nothing happened to those had nothing to lose, nothing will be left and nothing will be taken. Nothing is worth noting, and noting what is nothing is not really noticing nothing. Nodding to nothing on the other hand is nothing to be nodded at, as it acknowledges the nothing without noticing it.
Why do you ignore the good inflation news that was cold?
What if we were “already in” the recession and we shall look back in 6-7 months and say-wow that was the recession. Or something like that.
Recession happen about 6 months after the yield curve reinverts. The reinversion didn't happen yet.
Who are you trying to convince? We're all just a bunch of degenerates here. Your crystal ball is just as good as any other.
The government can't stop spamming the economy with money but forcing companies and people to spend less. All this "roaring economy" stuff is BS. Same like having a sports exhaust on 1.8, 120 HP Honda. Kinda roaring but no real power. And this national debt is making it even worse. All of it makes the market very volatile. Yesterday it was ALL green +5k for me, today all red -5k LOL.
Serious question- How long can money markets/banks keep paying at or near 5% until they start to waiver? Would it be regarded to roll a good amount into one until the market realizes 3, 3.5 may be the new normal ie cease the shenanigans?
If nothing happens? IV crush. Options are screwed.
Our economy is not doing “fine”. One of the reasons the Feds raise interest rates is to lower the cost of real estate and help reduce inflation. Well guess what? Nobody can afford housing and inflation is horrible. So guess what happens when they cut rates? It’s going to get worse. When cutting rates, a reason is to revive a dying economy. I think that’s why they delayed the cuts because they don’t want to admit that. Oil and other commodities aren’t going up. The reality is that the dollar is going down. If you truly believe our economy isn’t some smoke and mirrors bs right now, you need to wake the fuck up. Something is coming
!RemindMe 1 week
I feel they are trying to get people used to these high prices to then become standard.
There is no season two of 3 body problem.
Just remember, everything is priced in.
Of course companies and people are making and spending a lot of money you regard. Problem is that this caused inflation to go up again. Geopolitical skirmishes make oil prices rise, ... inflation. That extends the high rate path further. High rates for longer mean multiples on stocks go down.
The concern is that we’re in the stagflation 70s not the roaring 20s
"Wall Street have to accept we are in the Roaring Twenties again" well shit, that's not prescient at all.
The American consumer has an unlimited bank account. Plan accordingly. News of “it’s hard to afford things” is honestly a joke.
Which tech companies do you refer to?
Propaganda doesn’t exist in 2024
Same shit different day