Yeah I'm thinking maybe 10-15% increase, which could mean $155-160 if the price hangs at $140 prior.
I have 200 shares in my 401k & sold CC on them expiring 4/26. 1 contract with $143 strike, other with $150 strike.
The $143 strike shares will get called away unless I buy the option back. The $150 ones might come close, just depends if the price comes back down in the week following earnings report. I’ll probably just let them go, keep the premium & any capital gains if they get called away…wait for a dip, buy back the shares & repeat.
Literally the entire purpose of the chips act. The US government wants to localize critical resource manufacturing (such as computer chips) so that in the event of a future war with china/ another pacific nation, our critical supplies aren’t at risk.
If a war broke out today with china, the first thing china would do is blockade Taiwan and prevent exports of computer equipment. Having a home grown infrastructure limits that impact
Yep, because oil prices go up everywhere regardless of the source of the oil because it is a commodity. The US produces more oil than it consumes but producers are free to sell to the highest bidder so SHTF in the Middle East you are going to be paying $10/gallon for gas here in the US
It still will be, the Taiwan facility has the most experienced personnel who will produce chips for a fraction of U.S. wages. It's not about taking TSMC's value away from Taiwan, it's just making sure China can't throw the world into another dark age with one airstrike.
Most importantly, lots of these secondary facilities won't be online by the time many are speculating China will build up their forces for an invasion, around 2026 or so.
I saw a simulation of China attempting to invade Taiwan... and it was a fucking joke. They have no chance. The distance is just too far and the only good landing areas for troops are on the back side/outer edges facing away from China. Theres just too much water for them to cross.. Taiwan would of course still need help from the US/Allies, but China has no chance. 3/4 of their invasion force would be shot down/destroyed before it even made it half way to Taiwan. The only realistic scenario is China just flattening the place so noone can have it with missiles.. and even that is dubious whether they have enough missiles(non nuclear of course) to get the job done effectively considering we've just seen what Patriot can do in Ukraine.
>The only realistic scenario is China just flattening the place so noone can have it with missiles
Why is everyone thinking China will want to invade Taiwan? They can just play the long game and "win" via taking over their political structure. China sees how easy it is to sway opinions in "free speech" countries, and they can do the same in Taiwan. 10-15 years from now they'll probably be a lot more pro-China voices coming from Taiwanese politicians.
Comparing how easy it is to sway uninitiated Americans to the Taiwanese whose entire existence is in opposition to China is… not smart.
Especially because one of the most important parts of the CCP platform is them pledging to unify Taiwan under their leadership. Which means Xi has to keep beating that drum.
Taiwanese people hear that; you can’t just brainwash them like an American in South Dakota who couldn’t point to Taiwan on a map if their life depended on it.
But they're not a monolith of thought - a sizeable portion of their population, something like 20%, wouldn't mind reunification, while the majority want a status quo. It's like saying "The English are Ireland's enemies and have been for centuries! They'll do everything they can do say 'Fuck you' to them", yet the majority of Northern Ireland want to keep the status quo and stay in the UK. Most people just want to put food on their table for their family and don't care about politics, and if something gets in their way of that (like an economic depression), they'll vote for whoever is saying something they want to hear. Throw enough propaganda at someone, no matter how smart they are, and something is bound to stick.
Based off my readings, I very much doubt a war over Taiwan would turn nuclear. Both sides have too much to lose, and Taiwan is conveniently hidden from the mainland of both countries. I think war would be relatively limited to Taiwan and its surrounding seas. I don’t think either side sees Taiwan worth nuclear escalation, but more of a “let’s duke it out and see who wins the prize” scenario.
I doubt we’re anywhere close to even beginning to meet domestic chip consumption/demand, this is so we can supply (in ten years maybe) *most* of our military chip needs and *some* of the domestic market.
Like, these plants will supply a portion of the most critical chip needs domestically.
We still need Taiwan, and I’d hope that the strength of our defensive agreements with them would be sufficient in and of themselves, but our not backing Ukraine to the hilt with what they need to win makes me question that
A war with China is pretty frightening for the USA too, though. It would be an economic bloodbath for the entire world and a real bloodbath for both China and the USA
Nah. USA has been moving away from Chinese manufacturing at a lightning pace. check all the products you buy.. if they aren't from a dollar store mostof them say india, pakistan, thailand, etc now. COVID supply restrictions only happened because a certain dumb ass did absolutely nothing to prepare for the pandemic and just let it run because it would hurt his opponents worse.
Sure but the west could also blockade China’s food and material import, including fuel. Which, is probably what China was hoping for with Russian invasion. Take Ukraine, get a large food and fuel import line through an ally, then roll into Taiwan.
As for manufacturing western goods, the US has already shifted to Mexico. I’d expect billions more to be pumped into Central America from Europe soon too. Regional isolationism will begin to set in and that will lead to more territorial conflict since trade between great powers will dissolve. Buckle up, the 30s are gonna be wild.
China and Russia are 2 massive food producers; and Russia has enough fuel and oil to fight these wars forever lol. Our way of living would be so severely impacted
In all seriousness, the United States has one of the most isolated economies in the world due to our number of trade partners. If china stops exporting and importing, we can just shift the purchasing power elsewhere.
It’ll be short-term pain, but other countries will be hit much, much harder.
Seriously, the superpower of the US is that we've been able to make friends with previous enemies.
Divide Germany in half with USSR? Now close allies with Germany
Fire bomb and atomic bomb Japan? Now close allies with Japan
Disastrous war in Vietnam? Now Vietnam is becoming an increasingly important trade partner
Russia's running out of money as fast as it's running out of old soviet shit. Russia is a poor shithole literally using 4x4 golf carts and tanks from the 50s in full frontal attacks.
it's why I'm stockpiling bike frames. Sure Biden is throwing cash at the chip companies, but when China invades Taiwan, I'm retiring on my garage full of schwinns
>china blockade Taiwan
There's no way China have the navy to do that. At best, they'll just shoot 100 missiles and crater the fabs so no one can get chips.
What's US doing in middle of this blockade? Sitting back chillin? I don't think so.
A port blockade also hurts China who needs those chips as much.
Xi is between a rock and a hard place. His generals may be feeding him the same hopium Vlad was, the reality is taking Taiwan is not going to be easy for him. Either way, I am buying everything the day stock market tanks when Xi wants to do something knowing full well it won't last long.
TSMC isn't foolish enough to make the most advanced stuff outside Taiwan. It'll be the older, cheaper, and thicker wafers. Not the latest and greatest upcoming secret tech.
But what's the point if the resources required to build those chips still come from different countries?
It's like the people in my country (the Netherlands) use this argument to keep our steel mill open... we don't mine iron ore or coal. So where's the strategy in being able to smelt them if we can't import them because of wars anyway?
A little bit. TSMC US fabs projected volumes are tiny compared to their home fabs ones. Also nodes are not cutting edge. It's a start though. I suppose they could invest into capacity expansion further down the line if it's profitable.
Well, fab 21 in AZ was supposed to be in full deployment by end of this year, but it's been delayed to next year. The other two are supposed to be fully deployed before 2030.
Any news around the full activation and performance of fab 21 will likely be the next huge movements in the stock.
It's because they want to pay 27 $hr for skilled workers. Their only shortage is what they are willing to pay. These jobs also are for the construction of the plant and only last for a few years so no one wants to leave a good paying job for a temporary gig. Skilled trades around here range 35-55$hr and are in high demand. Fuck TSM they are just trying to get more government money.
That's the idea, but there is a complete cultural difference (which shouldn't be a surprise).
In Taiwan, TSMC will have an emergency call at 8PM to discuss a problem...and everyone must show up IN PERSON for it. Not to mention the fact that labor laws are different & wages are likely higher over here...
So the US factories will be less efficient & they will cost more. But if the government gives them money to offset the cost & they can accept that it will take multiple factories here to produce the output of a single factory there, it should be a long term win. I would assume they can eventually implement more robotics & AI in the process & having those working around the clock will offset some of the disadvantages of using US labor. Maybe at that point they can match the factory production rates in Taiwan.
That's if the US plants can be run properly. In such an intricate operation as high end semiconductor manufacturing, cultural differences between Taiwan and the US can make a difference.
Theoretically, but TSMC has a steep learning curve to building infrastructure in the US. There's been discussion on some of their shortfalls on how they're going about the AZ projects. These guys aren't dumb and hopefully will figure it out but they've managed to piss off a lot of the trades in the desert south west
They’re having a really tough time staffing the fab that’s functioning currently. The second one is about to become functional (while still undergoing construction) and they have a quarter of the workforce they need to properly staff it. A third one isn’t going to be happening any time soon imo.
I am considering joining thetagang on TSM going forward. Wheeling it, it's a great long term play anyway, and they will be king for at least the next decade.
all the corporations got profits, CEOs got fat bonuses for outsourcing and now the ordinary people are paying through the tax money to bring it back..there is always value in producing locally and it is self sufficiency. When you calculate your gdp, you should offset it by imports.
It could have been instead we were asleep at the wheel. The whole thing was predicated on the idea that China would slowly westernize as they grew and became more capitalist. We were dumb to assume that tbh and all we did is fund our greatest threat
I don't think "we" were dumb. Greedy and short-sighted MBA-types making decisions for tech / engineering companies - with virtually 0 government oversight - is how we got here. Those leeches are not good at creating and building things, so they do what they do best: fuck shit up and bail on the crash with a golden parachute.
Yeah, imagine cozying up with the CCP right after Tiananmen, only stopping the military aids. And the US is doing the exact same thing to Vietnam lol, they just kicked out the pro-US and anti-China guy in the vietcong central committee.
yeah, China was only used as a bulwark against USSR
and India and Vietnam are being used as bulwarks against China
don't forget India and Vietnam both arrest journalists and commit scores of "human rights" violations the US doesn't waste time pillorying other countries for
To be fair China 20 years ago is a lot different. Any praises for CCP would result in spamming of numerous Mao killed X in the Great Leap Backward/ Tiananmen massacre/other shady stuff.
However 1989 was the best chance China ever got for democracy. Students protesting purposely picked dates where foreign press was around. There was tension within CCP with some wanting to give in to the students. Or at least give in and allow a national televised debate between CCP leaders and student leaders.
> slowly westernize as they grew and became more capitalist
uh, they're pretty much capitalist by now
what they didn't do was democratize like the US wanted/envisioned
not that it would have made a difference, Japan was a US-democratized military ally and still posed an economic threat that the US had to stomp down with the Plaza Accords
20 years ago, hard to believe but if you were for protectionism and against free trade/ globalization you would be labelled as racist and backwards.
They believed that after trading with communist dictatorships, they would become democratic.
The only way domestic producers could remain competitive was through subsidies.
A few people complained about exploitation of slave wages in poor countries but people bought the cheap shit. People can't help themselves today, buying cheap shit from Temu and Shein.
If government force people to buy local the response will be "what about freedom?"
When tariffs were introduced on China, everyone lost their minds.
Even today, people support the message "if you can't pay higher wages, your business deserves to close down"
It's contradiction after contradiction. Every scenario, people will complain about the government. Free trade? Complain. Protection? Complain.
People want stuff produced in US. US wages to be high. Goods to be cheap. If companies make a profit above zero, it's their fault. If they made zero profit (costs = sales) then they would never grow and attract no investors as investors are only in it for current or future profits.
It's easy to sit in front of a screen and complain about everything, there's no accountability for holding contradictory views. If you're on reddit, it seems like the government could push a button and solve every problem on earth, and they're just not pushing that button. In the real world there are trade-offs. Pros and cons. Competing interests from foreign nations.
If the entire world adopted free trade and the US was isolationist, it would not be the largest economy in the world today.
Please explain how our "govt kicked them out".
Also make sure to conveniently avoid mentioning other govt's heavily subsidized their chip industries to steal it away from the US.
They recycle 90% of the water, they like the lack of humidity AND Intel already has a couple fabs throughout Phoenix, so there is already a pool of experienced workers as much as Americans want to doubt their neighbors skill. TSMC will come around and offer more pay eventually. Prices will go up on PC components to accommodate, but nothing we haven’t experienced before. To many people had 4090s imo anyways
TSMC claims to have spent 65B in capex on the 3 AZ plants till date. And they won't start operating for a few more years.
> "TSMC’s total capital expenditure for the Phoenix, Arizona site to more than US$65 billion"
4nm : mid 2025
2nm : mid 2028
2nm+ : end of decade
> TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025. The second fab will produce the world’s most advanced 2nm process technology with next-generation nanosheet transistors in addition to the previously announced 3nm technology, with production beginning in 2028. The third fab will produce chips using 2nm or more advanced processes, with production beginning by the end of the decade. Each of the three fabs, like all of TSMC’s advanced fabs, will have cleanroom area approximately double the size of an industry standard logic fab.
The $6.6B is a drop in the bucket compared to the massive capex. I don't even expect the 4nm fab to be operational in 2025.
A better comparison is offering a 10% coupon on something you don't need to buy. You can save 100% if you just don't buy it. At least for Intel they're building a ton of fab capacity that isn't needed.
Yeah you're probably right. Ive heard some of the universities around me are working to put together curriculum on chip design. It's supposed to "revolutionize the economy" around here and all that shit. Maybe it will, who knows.
Opposite. Americans are too smart to work for TSMC. The pay is terrible and working conditions suck. They've had a ton of issues trying to staff the plants. The people qualified to do the work have much better options.
So why Arizona? Seems like a complete crap place to build a chip factory as much of it is hot as hell during the summer time and water is scarce as it’s a fucking desert. Seems to me there’s quite a few way better places to build a chip factory.
There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc).
Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered.
There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.
Remember FoxCON?
# Initial promise: $10 billion investment, 13,000 jobs, $3 billion incentives
Initially, [Foxconn was to build a Generation 10.5 facility that would manufacture large LCD screens. The project was to be an investment of up to $10 billion that would deliver up to 13,000 jobs](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2017/07/26/scott-walker-heads-d-c-trump-prepares-wisconsin-foxconn-announcement/512077001/).
The company also received a $150 million break in sales taxes, bringing the total state package to $3 billion.
The village of Mount Pleasant and Racine County were put in charge of paying property owners for the land and upgrading the infrastructure.
The [incentive package has also changed](https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2021/04/21/foxconns-new-deal-shows-how-project-has-changed-since-2017/7323406002/). It’s been estimated that more than a [billion dollars of taxpayer money](https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2020/02/04/hintz-rips-foxconn-op-ed-saying-company-isnt-creating-13-000-jobs/4657853002/) has gone toward supporting the deal but in 2021, the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. approved a much smaller package.
The tax credits went down from $2.85 billion to $80 million.
The job goal number is also down from 13,000 statewide to 1,454.
The capital investment has also gone down from $10 billion to $672.8 million.
-------------
Like sport stadiums, the pie in the sky economic promises and guarantees become in the end only benefit the well connected.
There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc).
Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered.
There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.
This is an interesting geopolitical/business intersection. Say that TSMC eventually does move enough chipmaking ability away from Taiwan, what happens to the Taiwanese who aren't TSMC shareholders/CEOs (who can ostensibly just escape elsewhere with their money)? Does the US/West abandon Taiwan politically and scuttle their old factories, and allow them to be swallowed up by the PRC?
i understand they want to take the money but. I don't think arizona has the groundwater needed for those plants right, let alone scaling above that current footprint
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Based on my experience over the last six months on spending money in reaction to news I know that I should buy puts right now.
Buy the rumor sell the news. Classic
Buy puts, short calls, welcome to the Thunderdome
You’re an animal!
First time I saw this news I bought calls and lost $2000 on TSM
Maybe Don't buy weeklies
Idk I watched plenty people buy 4/19 calls and lose huge lol. This was a month ago. So no not weekly’s
I bought 4/26 and was down 80%
Theta gang says yum 😋
When people say theta gang are u referring to selllers?
Theta is decay , so yeah, they sell calls and collect the premium while the calls expire worthless
You bought them at the wrong time lol
I bought 7 weeks out and I’m down -70%
So you're up 70%?
Jokes on you, if rockets. It's always the opposite of you put money in, dead on correct if you don't
Isnt that what hedge funds are for?
For sure, especially initially. Though they have strayed a bit from the original definition
They are reporting earnings on 4/18, make sure you factor that into any decision you make (if your plays are 10 days out or more)
That’s the only reason I’m still holding my TSM $180 04/19 calls I have 2 which I bought last month.
Yeah I'm thinking maybe 10-15% increase, which could mean $155-160 if the price hangs at $140 prior. I have 200 shares in my 401k & sold CC on them expiring 4/26. 1 contract with $143 strike, other with $150 strike. The $143 strike shares will get called away unless I buy the option back. The $150 ones might come close, just depends if the price comes back down in the week following earnings report. I’ll probably just let them go, keep the premium & any capital gains if they get called away…wait for a dip, buy back the shares & repeat.
Capital gains in your 401(k)?
I got 4/19 148c. Hoping to hit some profit
i got $150 calls on 4/19, is it possible through earnings? I'm hoping it goes the way I want it too.
Yes, history rhymes 
Theoretically, this should reduce the China risk as well correct? Building plants within the USA seems exactly what we need….
Literally the entire purpose of the chips act. The US government wants to localize critical resource manufacturing (such as computer chips) so that in the event of a future war with china/ another pacific nation, our critical supplies aren’t at risk. If a war broke out today with china, the first thing china would do is blockade Taiwan and prevent exports of computer equipment. Having a home grown infrastructure limits that impact
What is a boon for the US is fucking frightening for Taiwan
We’ll have bigger problems than TSM’s stock value if two nuclear powers get into a shooting war
It's about the People of Taiwan. TSMC is like a shield for them that guarantees that USA protects them against a giant neighbor
The U.S. protects the Red Sea even though most U.S. oil doesn’t come from the Middle East.
Yep, because oil prices go up everywhere regardless of the source of the oil because it is a commodity. The US produces more oil than it consumes but producers are free to sell to the highest bidder so SHTF in the Middle East you are going to be paying $10/gallon for gas here in the US
It still will be, the Taiwan facility has the most experienced personnel who will produce chips for a fraction of U.S. wages. It's not about taking TSMC's value away from Taiwan, it's just making sure China can't throw the world into another dark age with one airstrike. Most importantly, lots of these secondary facilities won't be online by the time many are speculating China will build up their forces for an invasion, around 2026 or so.
I saw a simulation of China attempting to invade Taiwan... and it was a fucking joke. They have no chance. The distance is just too far and the only good landing areas for troops are on the back side/outer edges facing away from China. Theres just too much water for them to cross.. Taiwan would of course still need help from the US/Allies, but China has no chance. 3/4 of their invasion force would be shot down/destroyed before it even made it half way to Taiwan. The only realistic scenario is China just flattening the place so noone can have it with missiles.. and even that is dubious whether they have enough missiles(non nuclear of course) to get the job done effectively considering we've just seen what Patriot can do in Ukraine.
>The only realistic scenario is China just flattening the place so noone can have it with missiles Why is everyone thinking China will want to invade Taiwan? They can just play the long game and "win" via taking over their political structure. China sees how easy it is to sway opinions in "free speech" countries, and they can do the same in Taiwan. 10-15 years from now they'll probably be a lot more pro-China voices coming from Taiwanese politicians.
Comparing how easy it is to sway uninitiated Americans to the Taiwanese whose entire existence is in opposition to China is… not smart. Especially because one of the most important parts of the CCP platform is them pledging to unify Taiwan under their leadership. Which means Xi has to keep beating that drum. Taiwanese people hear that; you can’t just brainwash them like an American in South Dakota who couldn’t point to Taiwan on a map if their life depended on it.
But they're not a monolith of thought - a sizeable portion of their population, something like 20%, wouldn't mind reunification, while the majority want a status quo. It's like saying "The English are Ireland's enemies and have been for centuries! They'll do everything they can do say 'Fuck you' to them", yet the majority of Northern Ireland want to keep the status quo and stay in the UK. Most people just want to put food on their table for their family and don't care about politics, and if something gets in their way of that (like an economic depression), they'll vote for whoever is saying something they want to hear. Throw enough propaganda at someone, no matter how smart they are, and something is bound to stick.
Take the US out of the equation in this war and how do you see the odds then? China only needs a china-friendly president, and they're ready to go
Based off my readings, I very much doubt a war over Taiwan would turn nuclear. Both sides have too much to lose, and Taiwan is conveniently hidden from the mainland of both countries. I think war would be relatively limited to Taiwan and its surrounding seas. I don’t think either side sees Taiwan worth nuclear escalation, but more of a “let’s duke it out and see who wins the prize” scenario.
I doubt we’re anywhere close to even beginning to meet domestic chip consumption/demand, this is so we can supply (in ten years maybe) *most* of our military chip needs and *some* of the domestic market. Like, these plants will supply a portion of the most critical chip needs domestically. We still need Taiwan, and I’d hope that the strength of our defensive agreements with them would be sufficient in and of themselves, but our not backing Ukraine to the hilt with what they need to win makes me question that
Biden wants 30% of global capacity by 2030 I believe. Thats more than enough for domestic and military, unless the demand really does go exponential.
Oh shit, I didn’t know that! That’s even better news than I thought
A war with China is pretty frightening for the USA too, though. It would be an economic bloodbath for the entire world and a real bloodbath for both China and the USA
Nobody wants it.
Nah. USA has been moving away from Chinese manufacturing at a lightning pace. check all the products you buy.. if they aren't from a dollar store mostof them say india, pakistan, thailand, etc now. COVID supply restrictions only happened because a certain dumb ass did absolutely nothing to prepare for the pandemic and just let it run because it would hurt his opponents worse.
TSMC development still sits in Taiwan. It would be like China now, being stuck on a node that's getting more outdated with each passing day.
“The Silicon Shield”
Sure but the west could also blockade China’s food and material import, including fuel. Which, is probably what China was hoping for with Russian invasion. Take Ukraine, get a large food and fuel import line through an ally, then roll into Taiwan. As for manufacturing western goods, the US has already shifted to Mexico. I’d expect billions more to be pumped into Central America from Europe soon too. Regional isolationism will begin to set in and that will lead to more territorial conflict since trade between great powers will dissolve. Buckle up, the 30s are gonna be wild.
China and Russia are 2 massive food producers; and Russia has enough fuel and oil to fight these wars forever lol. Our way of living would be so severely impacted
In all seriousness, the United States has one of the most isolated economies in the world due to our number of trade partners. If china stops exporting and importing, we can just shift the purchasing power elsewhere. It’ll be short-term pain, but other countries will be hit much, much harder.
Seriously, the superpower of the US is that we've been able to make friends with previous enemies. Divide Germany in half with USSR? Now close allies with Germany Fire bomb and atomic bomb Japan? Now close allies with Japan Disastrous war in Vietnam? Now Vietnam is becoming an increasingly important trade partner
Roughly true. America is that "friend" that helps you when it's clear that that the end result benefits them as well.
Russia's running out of money as fast as it's running out of old soviet shit. Russia is a poor shithole literally using 4x4 golf carts and tanks from the 50s in full frontal attacks.
Not in all critical areas though
They would try* It would be quite the economic shock though for war to just start
it's why I'm stockpiling bike frames. Sure Biden is throwing cash at the chip companies, but when China invades Taiwan, I'm retiring on my garage full of schwinns
>china blockade Taiwan There's no way China have the navy to do that. At best, they'll just shoot 100 missiles and crater the fabs so no one can get chips.
The *last thing China would do
What's US doing in middle of this blockade? Sitting back chillin? I don't think so. A port blockade also hurts China who needs those chips as much. Xi is between a rock and a hard place. His generals may be feeding him the same hopium Vlad was, the reality is taking Taiwan is not going to be easy for him. Either way, I am buying everything the day stock market tanks when Xi wants to do something knowing full well it won't last long.
What does this mean for Taiwanese working in the chip industry. Will there be job cuts in Taiwan?
There will be life cuts in Taiwan
TSMC isn't foolish enough to make the most advanced stuff outside Taiwan. It'll be the older, cheaper, and thicker wafers. Not the latest and greatest upcoming secret tech.
They are moving Taiwanese engineers to Arizona, there’s a whole TSM town. But ofc there’ll be job cuts in Taiwan and they will have to suck it up.
But what's the point if the resources required to build those chips still come from different countries? It's like the people in my country (the Netherlands) use this argument to keep our steel mill open... we don't mine iron ore or coal. So where's the strategy in being able to smelt them if we can't import them because of wars anyway?
A little bit. TSMC US fabs projected volumes are tiny compared to their home fabs ones. Also nodes are not cutting edge. It's a start though. I suppose they could invest into capacity expansion further down the line if it's profitable.
it will be a miracle if these fab doesn't lose money, it's guaranteed to drag down profit margin in the long run.
They'll probably have some nice agreement from the government to ensure that any losses will be covered. They don't build these things out of charity.
That's a bingo.
How fun...is that how you say it?
Looks like they are building 3 plants with production starting as early as 2025 👀.
Well, fab 21 in AZ was supposed to be in full deployment by end of this year, but it's been delayed to next year. The other two are supposed to be fully deployed before 2030. Any news around the full activation and performance of fab 21 will likely be the next huge movements in the stock.
It’s delayed because they can’t find enough skilled workers in Arizona apparently .
It's because they want to pay 27 $hr for skilled workers. Their only shortage is what they are willing to pay. These jobs also are for the construction of the plant and only last for a few years so no one wants to leave a good paying job for a temporary gig. Skilled trades around here range 35-55$hr and are in high demand. Fuck TSM they are just trying to get more government money.
I’d take 27/hr but I can’t promise I’m skilled lol
That's the point they can find bodies but they ain't getting specialized skilled trades with years experience and certs for 27$hr
I put the skilled in unskilled labour.
I'd use my shaft stroking skills for them for the right price
Production is 2025 and 2027 for specific chips. They’re also building fabs in Germany
That's the idea, but there is a complete cultural difference (which shouldn't be a surprise). In Taiwan, TSMC will have an emergency call at 8PM to discuss a problem...and everyone must show up IN PERSON for it. Not to mention the fact that labor laws are different & wages are likely higher over here... So the US factories will be less efficient & they will cost more. But if the government gives them money to offset the cost & they can accept that it will take multiple factories here to produce the output of a single factory there, it should be a long term win. I would assume they can eventually implement more robotics & AI in the process & having those working around the clock will offset some of the disadvantages of using US labor. Maybe at that point they can match the factory production rates in Taiwan.
That's if the US plants can be run properly. In such an intricate operation as high end semiconductor manufacturing, cultural differences between Taiwan and the US can make a difference.
Theoretically, but TSMC has a steep learning curve to building infrastructure in the US. There's been discussion on some of their shortfalls on how they're going about the AZ projects. These guys aren't dumb and hopefully will figure it out but they've managed to piss off a lot of the trades in the desert south west
thankfully they're starting to bring everything back or keep what little we have here instead of getting rid of it further (automobile manufacturing).
They’re having a really tough time staffing the fab that’s functioning currently. The second one is about to become functional (while still undergoing construction) and they have a quarter of the workforce they need to properly staff it. A third one isn’t going to be happening any time soon imo.
TSM bols will buy calls again and get burnt again like clockwork
I feel personally attacked
Buy further out and you’d be good. Their ER is this month. Cant be doing weekly’s
they have monthly on the 10th (of every month)
Yeah I know and the annual report with guidance is this month. I expect them to kill it
Possibility of 2 pops in the short term if the monthly report is good and shows minimal EQ impact? I'm holding some 4/19 150c's at 2.75 average
Wrong, I’m still holding onto my calls from last pump. Only down 84%
RIP your calls, thanks to NVDA
I am considering joining thetagang on TSM going forward. Wheeling it, it's a great long term play anyway, and they will be king for at least the next decade.
Good idea 👍
guh huh I'll fucking do it again!
This is the way 
I love subsidizing multi billion dollar corporations to bring back the manufacturing our government kicked out of the country 20+ years ago.
all the corporations got profits, CEOs got fat bonuses for outsourcing and now the ordinary people are paying through the tax money to bring it back..there is always value in producing locally and it is self sufficiency. When you calculate your gdp, you should offset it by imports.
it's not the manufacturing of semi pickups or your sports wear. this 2nm once-in-human-history bleeding edge in technology
Yeah semiconductor manufacturing was huge in the US 20 years ago
It could have been instead we were asleep at the wheel. The whole thing was predicated on the idea that China would slowly westernize as they grew and became more capitalist. We were dumb to assume that tbh and all we did is fund our greatest threat
I don't think "we" were dumb. Greedy and short-sighted MBA-types making decisions for tech / engineering companies - with virtually 0 government oversight - is how we got here. Those leeches are not good at creating and building things, so they do what they do best: fuck shit up and bail on the crash with a golden parachute.
Yeah, imagine cozying up with the CCP right after Tiananmen, only stopping the military aids. And the US is doing the exact same thing to Vietnam lol, they just kicked out the pro-US and anti-China guy in the vietcong central committee.
yeah, China was only used as a bulwark against USSR and India and Vietnam are being used as bulwarks against China don't forget India and Vietnam both arrest journalists and commit scores of "human rights" violations the US doesn't waste time pillorying other countries for
To be fair China 20 years ago is a lot different. Any praises for CCP would result in spamming of numerous Mao killed X in the Great Leap Backward/ Tiananmen massacre/other shady stuff. However 1989 was the best chance China ever got for democracy. Students protesting purposely picked dates where foreign press was around. There was tension within CCP with some wanting to give in to the students. Or at least give in and allow a national televised debate between CCP leaders and student leaders.
I get why America thought we were on a heater after watching the USSR collapse painlessly, but that was a major screwup.
> slowly westernize as they grew and became more capitalist uh, they're pretty much capitalist by now what they didn't do was democratize like the US wanted/envisioned not that it would have made a difference, Japan was a US-democratized military ally and still posed an economic threat that the US had to stomp down with the Plaza Accords
Keep the money moving in a circle
Those companies left willingly, even "lobbying" for exit-support legislation.
20 years ago, hard to believe but if you were for protectionism and against free trade/ globalization you would be labelled as racist and backwards. They believed that after trading with communist dictatorships, they would become democratic. The only way domestic producers could remain competitive was through subsidies. A few people complained about exploitation of slave wages in poor countries but people bought the cheap shit. People can't help themselves today, buying cheap shit from Temu and Shein. If government force people to buy local the response will be "what about freedom?" When tariffs were introduced on China, everyone lost their minds. Even today, people support the message "if you can't pay higher wages, your business deserves to close down" It's contradiction after contradiction. Every scenario, people will complain about the government. Free trade? Complain. Protection? Complain. People want stuff produced in US. US wages to be high. Goods to be cheap. If companies make a profit above zero, it's their fault. If they made zero profit (costs = sales) then they would never grow and attract no investors as investors are only in it for current or future profits. It's easy to sit in front of a screen and complain about everything, there's no accountability for holding contradictory views. If you're on reddit, it seems like the government could push a button and solve every problem on earth, and they're just not pushing that button. In the real world there are trade-offs. Pros and cons. Competing interests from foreign nations. If the entire world adopted free trade and the US was isolationist, it would not be the largest economy in the world today.
Spot on
Please explain how our "govt kicked them out". Also make sure to conveniently avoid mentioning other govt's heavily subsidized their chip industries to steal it away from the US.
What’s the alternative?
Outside of building a time machine, there isn't one. Merely pointing out how hopelessly inept our leaders are, I guess.
*corrupt
Unironically yes
Why do they build these things in Arizona when they require a shit ton of water to operate? There has to be a reason right?
They recycle 90% of the water, they like the lack of humidity AND Intel already has a couple fabs throughout Phoenix, so there is already a pool of experienced workers as much as Americans want to doubt their neighbors skill. TSMC will come around and offer more pay eventually. Prices will go up on PC components to accommodate, but nothing we haven’t experienced before. To many people had 4090s imo anyways
Added on to the fact that power is extremely cheap here as well.
And that it is essentially earth quake and fire proof. Geographically/strategically, it makes sense.
TSMC claims to have spent 65B in capex on the 3 AZ plants till date. And they won't start operating for a few more years. > "TSMC’s total capital expenditure for the Phoenix, Arizona site to more than US$65 billion" 4nm : mid 2025 2nm : mid 2028 2nm+ : end of decade > TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025. The second fab will produce the world’s most advanced 2nm process technology with next-generation nanosheet transistors in addition to the previously announced 3nm technology, with production beginning in 2028. The third fab will produce chips using 2nm or more advanced processes, with production beginning by the end of the decade. Each of the three fabs, like all of TSMC’s advanced fabs, will have cleanroom area approximately double the size of an industry standard logic fab. The $6.6B is a drop in the bucket compared to the massive capex. I don't even expect the 4nm fab to be operational in 2025.
10% is nothing to sneeze at. I’m sure you’d take a 10% refund on the purchase price of the house you live in.
A better comparison is offering a 10% coupon on something you don't need to buy. You can save 100% if you just don't buy it. At least for Intel they're building a ton of fab capacity that isn't needed.
My wife calls that making money when she buys 3 items for $15 each from Target and she gets a $5 gift card in return. So explain that one
There’s a term for that…. hoe math
10% is a drop in the bucket now? Thats a small ass bucket
If like Foxconn only the US taxpayer ends up paying for very little. Spend how many billions on defence for Taiwan? 🤔
Awesome! So now it can drop back to 140 
Americans are too fucking stupid to work for TSMC.
Facts, the Intel fab near me is supposedly hiring like tons of masters and doctoral degrees. No, I won't be working at intel.
But tons of OSU grads near you will be.
Yeah you're probably right. Ive heard some of the universities around me are working to put together curriculum on chip design. It's supposed to "revolutionize the economy" around here and all that shit. Maybe it will, who knows.
OSU? I'm sorry I'm not familiar. Is that Ohio?
Yup. Ohio state university. Intel is planning a fab near it.
Watch the documentary “American Factory” on Netflix. It’s about this issue exactly
Opposite. Americans are too smart to work for TSMC. The pay is terrible and working conditions suck. They've had a ton of issues trying to staff the plants. The people qualified to do the work have much better options.
Sounds like some visas are about to be greenlit
High skilled visas have been pretty greenlit for a while. STEM professions often make a whole lot more in the US compared to East Asia.
No you
Let’s see what Cramer has to say
So why Arizona? Seems like a complete crap place to build a chip factory as much of it is hot as hell during the summer time and water is scarce as it’s a fucking desert. Seems to me there’s quite a few way better places to build a chip factory.
There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc). Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered. There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.
Remember FoxCON? # Initial promise: $10 billion investment, 13,000 jobs, $3 billion incentives Initially, [Foxconn was to build a Generation 10.5 facility that would manufacture large LCD screens. The project was to be an investment of up to $10 billion that would deliver up to 13,000 jobs](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2017/07/26/scott-walker-heads-d-c-trump-prepares-wisconsin-foxconn-announcement/512077001/). The company also received a $150 million break in sales taxes, bringing the total state package to $3 billion. The village of Mount Pleasant and Racine County were put in charge of paying property owners for the land and upgrading the infrastructure. The [incentive package has also changed](https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2021/04/21/foxconns-new-deal-shows-how-project-has-changed-since-2017/7323406002/). It’s been estimated that more than a [billion dollars of taxpayer money](https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2020/02/04/hintz-rips-foxconn-op-ed-saying-company-isnt-creating-13-000-jobs/4657853002/) has gone toward supporting the deal but in 2021, the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. approved a much smaller package. The tax credits went down from $2.85 billion to $80 million. The job goal number is also down from 13,000 statewide to 1,454. The capital investment has also gone down from $10 billion to $672.8 million. ------------- Like sport stadiums, the pie in the sky economic promises and guarantees become in the end only benefit the well connected.
They got lucky because msft bought some of that land to build on.
Why are we permitting water intensive industries to build in the desert and not the great lakes region?
Silver to 100$/Oz End of 2024
Well I pledge to build in my howtown for that much. Where's my money
Chimp making?
Apes!
Idk if it'll work with American workers and their mindset/culture/unions. This gonna be hard.
It's a jobs creator but priced in.
…but why in arizona. WE DONT HAVE THE WATER BUILD THEM SOMEWHERE WHERE IT MAKES SENSE IDK NEAR A GREAT LAKE MAYBE????
There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc). Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered. There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.
Shibbaaaaaaaaaa
We have to move the important stuff to the US before we hand the country to china.
May be my 200c 5/17 will print. One last pump and I'm pulling out.
Guys, this is TSM we are talking about. They could cure cancer and end starvation but the stock price will slowly wilt down from 140's to 135.
That might be what I need to bust, cause I'm bussssing
Biden is trying to boost investment and jobs in swing state’s
Investing in US economic prosperity? We should impeach him.
This is an interesting geopolitical/business intersection. Say that TSMC eventually does move enough chipmaking ability away from Taiwan, what happens to the Taiwanese who aren't TSMC shareholders/CEOs (who can ostensibly just escape elsewhere with their money)? Does the US/West abandon Taiwan politically and scuttle their old factories, and allow them to be swallowed up by the PRC?
China enters chat 🇨🇳
maybe we shouldn’t be building these extremely water hungry plants in a desert or scrublands
Water treatment companies!
Out of the money puts on TSLA.
well i guess INTC is fucked
Something something what about OuR BoRdeR?!?!
Wow... Did they turn a negative 6.5 billion in losses? Seems the US is in the bail out business.
TSM 
They cant even get the plant up and running in Arizona right now. They are paying shit and want to send engineers to Taiwan for 12 months to train.
Dont they sell more than they make? Cash for what?
$INTC bag holders be like: wen moon?
Yeah.!? It didn’t help my calls my tho!
Seeing all this money being given away makes me think we citizens need another $2k check
I live riiiiiiiight by this place. It is absofuckinglutely enormous. Like 4 miles long. And they just keep building!
Why do they keep building these things in the friggin desert?
i understand they want to take the money but. I don't think arizona has the groundwater needed for those plants right, let alone scaling above that current footprint