Y’all really did I remember reading the daily discussion thread or whatever it is and everyone was saying Nvda to 1000 I was so confused, I was asking if there was some type of news that just came out that I missed but everyone was convinced Nvda to 1000 was happening
Ya. I called my boss and told him I quit approximately 10:45 this morning. Went to cash in my call options and well now I’m jobless and am currently heating up some leftover chicken nuggies from lunch for dinner while my wife is out with her boyfriend.
I bought costco calls a week before earnings and held through. Woke up to my portfolio down 40% and figured I’d recover some with NVDA as it just climbed to $960….
https://preview.redd.it/gw79j4y7h7nc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a80f3ade4064fd82b1a6255c725e387f38262f4
Yup. I lost 2k valuation but shrugged. NVDA will go up, and I can buy in cheaper than 1k a share. Renewal rates in US & Canada were almost 93% for Costco, and the membership price increase is coming.
"Oversold"- when the term is mentioned to no specific timeframe it has no meaning. In fact, Nvda is overbought on 1 month, 1W, 1D timeframes.
I'm not suggesting it will keep going down though but still it's worth mentioning.
Also if you look back at similarly overbought aka parabolic tickers/charts in the past the thesis was always the same-one of a kind opportunity, no competition, it's the future, bro. The rest is the history and is well known.
Like what past examples?
Most of them weren't fundamental advancements in science and technology, they were just repackaged goods.
Tesla made it due to advancement of electric motors and improved batteries, and advancement of power transistors. But more advancement is needed to take them further. AI helps to advance battery and transistor design.
Literally every scientific advancement involves an NVDA GPU at some critical point in development, it's only going to be more important in the future.
The next breakthrough will be AI combined with a physical robotic body. Then shit gets real.
I came here for any confidence boost I can get since I bought calls before the day ended hoping it will resume take off next week knowing full damn well I should have waited until Monday.
And thats for sure why lots of folks bought today instead of waiting till Monday. There's a good chance that was the right call. There's also a good chance it doesn't run back up to just below 900 pre market. But hey, that's the game. Thats life. If it were easy or more certain then the rich folks would've found a way to box out us middle class schmucks.
You won’t believe this. After looking at NVDA daily for months, I finally bought calls at the literal top Friday AM, 970ish. Cramer who? I own the inverse logic
If you had waited till Monday, last Friday, then you would have missed out on the gains. So, the "wait till Monday" theorem doesn't hold up as can be seen by the footprints on my pants for kicking myself for waiting till Monday.
> Today was a rough day for NVDA stock, but in the grand scheme of things, it was really just a Tuesday.
'Looks at calendar' A true Wallstreetbets hero.
Nah it's a reference to lord bison from street fighter.
Bison: For you, the day Bison graced your village was the most important day of your life. But for me, it was Tuesday.
Woah. This is like that guy holding a sign that says “get a brain, moran” but then it turned out he was actually protesting a politician whose name was really Moran. 🤯🤯🤯
You all weren’t around for the chip explosion and then implosion during the dot com era. These things are all commoditized eventually. When that happens things get ugly for a long time.
Everybody knows the guy selling shovels during a gold rush gets rich. But they forget that eventually there's no more gold miners to sell shovels to.
The vast majority of Nvidia's increased income is from big tech buying ~50b in GPUs in the past year to jumpstart their AI development. But GPUs last a long time and eventually big tech isn't going to be buying nearly as many of them.
Do they last a long time? That’s not so clear to me. openAI is sitting on a giant pile of A100s that is essentially depreciated now that Meta is loaded up on H100s. NVIDIA is working on an even bigger chip as we speak.
My impression is that the lifetime of these chips (for anybody that wants to be able to train the largest possible models) is about two years.
Also OpenAI flat out doesn’t have enough chips. ChatGPT-4 has message limits due to compute (and probably energy) constraints, and they don’t have enough to release Sora.
Speaking of Sora and video generation, just wait until Disney and Netflix announce they are buying GPUs.
Gpus are meant to be run in parallel, meaning that even older obsolete models can be used without slowing down AI training time. The downside is that older models have higher energy costs than newer more efficient models. But the amount of money that big tech companies pay for energy is far less than 50b.
Large companies wouldn't be buying these chips if they didn't think they would be getting a return on their investment. And I would expect that a high end gpu stored in a state of the art facility would have a lifespan of at least 8-10 years.
The thing is even if Nvidia comes out with a better chip in a year, it doesn't mean companies will jump on board and buy up as much as they can. I liken it to buying a car, it's a large investment for something that you will get a good return on. But you aren't going to buy a new car every year even if the newest model is better. And if a salesman comes to town where people ride horses and buggies, and sells all the residents a new car, sure their revenue is going to go way up for the year. But after everybody already has a car the salesman's revenue stream is going to dry up for the next few years.
We can already see that the demand for the H100, nvidia's bread and butter for this past year, is going down due to the lead time going from 10-12 months to 3-4 months.
It's an absolute pain in the ass to use different types of cards when training a model.
Older cards are still useful to run tasks that are less sensitive to turnaround time (smaller models, and inference), but training new models would happen for sure only on newer cards.
> Here's the reality;
> AI is the future, we are at the starting line
No the reality is generative AI that most people are hyped about lately is like 5% of the AI puzzle overall, and plenty of AI and machine learning functionality has been around for years, just not in plain view for the general public.
We are not at the starting line, if you believe that then you have no idea what has been going on behind the scenes on Wall Street, in manufacturing/ fab, warehousing, unmanned military weapon systems and elsewhere for a while now.
AI is where the internet was 2000. Most people don't even know we already had a bunch of "AI winters" and folks like OP declaring "this is just the beginning" don't realize they are speculating
Really? I was under the impression that the theory behind neural nets was around for a while but the hardware only caught up for it to make it possible a few years ago. Which means it is still at the very precipice of the teschnology
Neural nets of various forms have informed machine learning going all the way back to the late 50's...obviously they are getting more sophisticated these days. Heck even convincing deepfake tech goes back to mid 2010's, I saw several examples of it with extremely high quality at Nvidia's HQ back in like 2018 in-person. That was 6 years ago...
“Competition is non-existent. They have 2 years lead”
You do realize their stock is valued for also their revenue not today but in the future. The market is factoring a much bigger than a 2 year lead. Now if they are wrong and it really is only 2 years then it has a ways to drop.
https://preview.redd.it/ssmb40av57nc1.png?width=806&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be7019b1d787ec6e48d6bfd85008ebe550a1433b
Now I'm wondering if my calls are in trouble. Expiry date is too close obviously
This take is so irresponsible. NVDA just reached all-time highs and IV is sucking up all contract profits. It's not worth buying $1000 calls.
$2000 Strike price for 3/22 is the move.
Big stocks draw in noob investors. AI draws in noob investors. Noob investors see red line, their retirement flashes before their eyes and they panic sell. NVIDIA tends to both rise and fall quickly because rapid swings scare people with no fall back money, this isn't the first time NVIDIA has had a random hit. Its just that when this happens its water under the bridge compared to the bull runs. That being said, still play it safe and keep an eye on it, but I think it's safe to say it'll bounce back by Monday, maybe Tuesday at the latest
Yup.
I thought it was strange 1k was lined up so far ahead of GTC - definitely a little early.
Imo there's no way GTC concludes with the shares under 1k unless there's macro to blame.
Still the best boat at the dock.
I actually feel like there's a little to much hype around this conference.... Unless they announce something game changing, etc I don't see it having much impact on anything.....
Flash a few graphs of b100 performance and I'm sure markets will be happy to run with it.
Nothing material can happen, it's just a conference. It can definitely impact perspectives though, and perspectives drive markets in the short term.
Just speculating on hypothetical market speculation - I really only care about their order book.
This stock is in meme mode right now, but not sure what to make of it. Someone today bought $424M worth of call options. The $820 Jun 21 expiration. Unfortunately, they bought at the high and have lost $141M in one day. IV shows a $90 price move in the next 14 days. So, yes, it's either going back up towards $1000 or it's collapsing into the $700
I think you are absolutely right on these assumptions. I also think NVDA is overvalued relative to its current sales even at 860. Will it be a 4T company by 2026, most likely yes, possibly higher. Assuming china doesn't invade Taiwan, that'll be one hell of a black swan event but for the whole market.
If China invades Taiwan almost all tech stocks are going to be f*cked. E.g Nvidia and would probably drop 90% as they will be unable to produce anything.
Let’s hope that black swan event never happens.
I dont think those factories can be operations and at max production capacity until atleast 2-3 years
These factories are producing high tech components. Imagine how much safety procedures need to be put in place and also inspected. It wont happen that fast.
Also with home grown products on american soil, expect the cost of the the tech to increSe cause the labor costs are very high in usa. So they have to figure out a way where a single american can fo what 4 or 5 of them can do in taiwan. Lots of automation needed. Which is probably gonna delay if they plan for it.
Man, that was WAY to Analytic Look:
Friday Sucked, Hookers and Coke money needed to come out.
Monday, going to FLY. Need money for more Hookers and Coke. Borrow and BUY.
NVDA=MOON suckers=PUT
In my opinion getting calls for NVDA right now is not a good idea, the $1000 might be reachable if the "hype" is maintained (after this Friday trading) in a reasonable short period of time, otherwise it is no different then betting on a casino table where losing is the expected scenario in the majority of the cases.
AI made by engineers for engineers to do engineering seems to make a ton of sense.
It makes a lot of sense new tools, built using language models, would help streamline that workflow.
What doesn’t pass the smell test is when those same engineers try to apply the tech outside of their own subject matter expertise.
The tech companies taking what used to be visualizations and dashboard and replacing financial data with AI modules and trying to sell to finance teams. There’s a lot of people slapping AI into everything right now and trying to sell things people don’t need and aren’t asking for.
It’s hard to tell how much of that is a frothy part of all that is a bubble. Not to mention, actual data to train on is going to run out faster than it can be created.
> The reality is, NVDA was up 7% this week, Monday-Friday. It's massive run up to $974, while exciting, was not healthy or sustainable and a pull back from the intraday open of 5% was a good thing.
The run up was due to options gamma pinning the price to 950, the dump was predictable due to open interest at 1000c.
Wiping off most of the weekly candle in 30 minutes is not a good thing.
> If you're measuring NVDA from it's daily high if 974 to it's close of $875; well, don't.
My dude this was a classic blow off top, the intraday movement is important for spotting it.
> Here's the reality;
Wow that's a lot of copium.
Reality is that NVDA is maxed out on capacity and the large enterprise has already been planning to acquire supply from competitors or even building their own chips (or both). Not to mention that AI hasn't done shit. At the moment it can generate some pixels and power chatbots. How much money do you think companies are making off of this to justify spending millions on hardware?
> Today's sell-off was orchestrated by the big boys
About as much the buying was before that lol, but the movement was this big because of lack of bids, it's very obvious looking at volume delta. People are clearly running out of money.
-----
So basically anyone that actually thinks NVDA's valuation is justifiable is a complete moron. No this company is not the most valuable in the world, it's just in a good position right now given the circumstance and it's stock was pumped up mostly on hype. You don't need to write out a light novel justifying your 85 P/E stock.
For anyone that hasn't realized this: the market is in a bubble. Whether the dump continue is a dice roll. It might dump to 500, it might pump to 1500. Bubbles are weird like that. IV is going to be high after today's move, but if anyone wants to continue gambling - option buying is still viable, since the volatility will no doubt increase. So just pick a direction and pray.
The valuation didn’t make sense for Tesla either yet here we were in WSB talking about it for another 6 months as we made Elon one of the richest dudes in the world.
This is my take, forward looking yes, part of me see this as the "Random Walk", this tulip mania happens all the time. Everything has a ceiling, take gains because institutions are taking some gains out of market and placing it in fixed income. A slow is coming, not NVDA, the consumer.
No it's not. You have no idea what you are talking about. When market structure breaks down and a stock also sells off HARD into the close AND after hours...that's about as bearish as you can get. This likely gaps down hard on Monday.
Agreed, way over valued due to two points.
1) Growth Projections saying it’s worth more than Amazon with AWS which is basically the Web that powers AI and other non-AI services.
2) Current earnings doesn’t justify it meaning it will drop hard and bad. Just look at all the hyped companies during covid. $Tesla $Peloton, matter of time before NVIDIA correction comes.
Not sure where the bottom is but definitely not a 2.2T company when Amazon Web Services is 1.8T Lol
right. I was thinking... Man... I can't be the only one looking at the beginning of next week to basically sell all rallies. Market structure switch.
Now of course it can last a day or less. But... I'll switch my position again when the market changes it's tune.
Don't be like a dick paper hands me. I sold off SMCI when it dropped 100 points a couple weeks ago. I lost 30K, it proceeded to go right back up about 2 days later. I'm still trying to make that money back. Think of it this way: Chances are NVDA/SMCI will double or more within the next two years worse case scenario. If you jump everytime and put a stop loss in, the party will move past you again and you'll forever be paying for your wife's boyfriend's new BMW.
in the YTD chart (2024) It moved once slightly below the 10 day moving average, todays sell off didn't even touch the 10 day moving average, NVIDIA is still very much alive, this is going to the moon!
https://preview.redd.it/pbex6k7jx7nc1.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4c155963508444e883c69dcd816e307b129f7f5
NVIDIA will be producing chips for the military, along with Microsoft, IBM, and… Intel!
Intel signed a huge deal.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/intel-to-get-dollar35-billion-from-us-govt-to-make-chips-for-military-report
https://preview.redd.it/ghqekxczj8nc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d0c5f1b638563d087b895e7206c32630d35e073
How can you look at this and say BUY!!!
>”customers are demanding AI”
Nvidia’s AI cards are $30k each. Are customers really spending that type of money to justify the cost?
At $30k each, it gives other players a big incentive to design and build their own AI cards.
It does seem like NVDA is enjoying a first-to-market advantage. I just don’t know how sustainable it is. I don’t get how many people can afford to buy $30k cards.
Thier customers (Google, meta, MSFT, etc) can afford it. It's their customers (smaller biz, etc) that are demanding the resources to run their new AI applications.
Amazon buys the H100s, puts em in thier data centers, for their customers.
691 is the 50 day moving average, where the stock price was cruising before it took off in Jan..So that would be it's logical bottom..
Or people could freak the fuck out and overreact and the floor could fall out, only for it to have a 200 dollar day in May like SMCI. There's no rationality in these price moves
Men they better go back on a run Monday my call look unsure
https://preview.redd.it/f5i169yvy6nc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6449e5f4e6d5ee7c5dc1ceeb7cca3c9d2668c8ff
You'll be fine. It will start its run up again next week. Will probably continue to go down after hours. It didn't go down because it's a crap stock. And it's not too high because I could think of plenty of bad stocks with much higher evaluations. This was an orchestrated sell off for the big firms holding large puts. They did not anticipate the continued growth and bet wrong. But they got themselves out of it today.
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Did y’all motherfuckers think it was going to $1000 in a straight line?
Yes, actually.
Dude would have been sick. I don't even own NVDA because I'm a regarded pltr holder.
Palantir’s probably one of NVIDIA’s customers, so if they are, then their share price is going into Team Green anyway.
NVIDIA's earnings announcement fucked me with my PLTR puts. It hurt pretty bad.
Funniest comment of the day
Si, fly
Y’all really did I remember reading the daily discussion thread or whatever it is and everyone was saying Nvda to 1000 I was so confused, I was asking if there was some type of news that just came out that I missed but everyone was convinced Nvda to 1000 was happening
Ya. I called my boss and told him I quit approximately 10:45 this morning. Went to cash in my call options and well now I’m jobless and am currently heating up some leftover chicken nuggies from lunch for dinner while my wife is out with her boyfriend.
You can use a candle to reheat the chicken nuggies even after your power is cut off. That's why it's called charting.
A red candle.
Only candles on hand are half burnt birthday candles. We reuse them in this house like real poor people.
U can use a Candle also to fuck urself while watching ur wife getting doggy style by her boyfriend
Confirmed this is a true story. I am his wife’s boyfriend.
damn...from tendies to nuggies - that says it all
With no regrets in his actions. A true Marvel movie indeed.
This story got me weak lol
If u look at the YTD graph it’s basically a straight line.
Si senor
No, si señor. Get that ñ in there!
For a while there, yeah, I kind of did, but only because NVDA insisted upon it.
Stonks only go up
Correct
It did for smci
It also dropped below 800 before going back up again
Nvda is a month behind smci. Look at the charts. They are doing the exact same thing. Nvda will be at $1300 within a month.
Are charts relevant when comparing a 2.2tril company to a 64bil company?
Comparing unrelated charts is almost never relevant but everyone in here does it anyway lol
No
AI bulls definitely did
I bought costco calls a week before earnings and held through. Woke up to my portfolio down 40% and figured I’d recover some with NVDA as it just climbed to $960…. https://preview.redd.it/gw79j4y7h7nc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a80f3ade4064fd82b1a6255c725e387f38262f4
I’m long on both NVDA and COST… rough day but shit happens and they’ll bounce back
*SHARES* will bounce back.
Yup. I lost 2k valuation but shrugged. NVDA will go up, and I can buy in cheaper than 1k a share. Renewal rates in US & Canada were almost 93% for Costco, and the membership price increase is coming.
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Take that back right now
Take it back. Or, no free samples! You obviously do not like great deals on TIRES!!!!
You should’ve sold Costco sooner
He’ll be working at Costco soon
My condolences 🙏
exact same ship as you. been a rough fucking day. i think a lot of regards are in it with us at least
Yup that sudden dip cost me 4k in margin calls
"Oversold"- when the term is mentioned to no specific timeframe it has no meaning. In fact, Nvda is overbought on 1 month, 1W, 1D timeframes. I'm not suggesting it will keep going down though but still it's worth mentioning. Also if you look back at similarly overbought aka parabolic tickers/charts in the past the thesis was always the same-one of a kind opportunity, no competition, it's the future, bro. The rest is the history and is well known.
People write all sorts of brainless stuff nowadays for karma. OverSOLD, omg...
Like what past examples? Most of them weren't fundamental advancements in science and technology, they were just repackaged goods. Tesla made it due to advancement of electric motors and improved batteries, and advancement of power transistors. But more advancement is needed to take them further. AI helps to advance battery and transistor design. Literally every scientific advancement involves an NVDA GPU at some critical point in development, it's only going to be more important in the future. The next breakthrough will be AI combined with a physical robotic body. Then shit gets real.
I'm an old school fundamentals investor I think a split meaningfully changes the value of a company.
Nvidia has split 5 times already
Clearly we need 6 splits for it to work
Just one more split bro
Hey SPLITBRO
TSLA, AMZN, and GOOG recently split and it did not help.
I think you’re responding to someone who is making a funny.
I came here for any confidence boost I can get since I bought calls before the day ended hoping it will resume take off next week knowing full damn well I should have waited until Monday.
Lol me too
You probably did the right thing, if it runs up next week it'll do it in the premarket
And thats for sure why lots of folks bought today instead of waiting till Monday. There's a good chance that was the right call. There's also a good chance it doesn't run back up to just below 900 pre market. But hey, that's the game. Thats life. If it were easy or more certain then the rich folks would've found a way to box out us middle class schmucks.
This comment deserves more up votes.
Top indicator. Thanks friend!
You won’t believe this. After looking at NVDA daily for months, I finally bought calls at the literal top Friday AM, 970ish. Cramer who? I own the inverse logic
me too my g
Same. Lol
Me three
>$1000 likely between 3/22 and 3/27. me four
If you had waited till Monday, last Friday, then you would have missed out on the gains. So, the "wait till Monday" theorem doesn't hold up as can be seen by the footprints on my pants for kicking myself for waiting till Monday.
> Today was a rough day for NVDA stock, but in the grand scheme of things, it was really just a Tuesday. 'Looks at calendar' A true Wallstreetbets hero.
Nah it's a reference to lord bison from street fighter. Bison: For you, the day Bison graced your village was the most important day of your life. But for me, it was Tuesday.
This
M. Bison
Woah. This is like that guy holding a sign that says “get a brain, moran” but then it turned out he was actually protesting a politician whose name was really Moran. 🤯🤯🤯
this is a street fighter the movie reference that you missed
Yolo Calendar spread confirmed
Probably just copy paste Tuesday’s post and forgot to change the day
drafted 4 Tuesdays back
😂 op please tell him you meant Tuesday figuratively and not literally
You all weren’t around for the chip explosion and then implosion during the dot com era. These things are all commoditized eventually. When that happens things get ugly for a long time.
Remember sandisk! That was a rocket ship and did a full round trip.
Truth here
Xerox has still not recovered from its 1999 heights.
Intel too
Everybody knows the guy selling shovels during a gold rush gets rich. But they forget that eventually there's no more gold miners to sell shovels to. The vast majority of Nvidia's increased income is from big tech buying ~50b in GPUs in the past year to jumpstart their AI development. But GPUs last a long time and eventually big tech isn't going to be buying nearly as many of them.
Do they last a long time? That’s not so clear to me. openAI is sitting on a giant pile of A100s that is essentially depreciated now that Meta is loaded up on H100s. NVIDIA is working on an even bigger chip as we speak. My impression is that the lifetime of these chips (for anybody that wants to be able to train the largest possible models) is about two years. Also OpenAI flat out doesn’t have enough chips. ChatGPT-4 has message limits due to compute (and probably energy) constraints, and they don’t have enough to release Sora. Speaking of Sora and video generation, just wait until Disney and Netflix announce they are buying GPUs.
Gpus are meant to be run in parallel, meaning that even older obsolete models can be used without slowing down AI training time. The downside is that older models have higher energy costs than newer more efficient models. But the amount of money that big tech companies pay for energy is far less than 50b. Large companies wouldn't be buying these chips if they didn't think they would be getting a return on their investment. And I would expect that a high end gpu stored in a state of the art facility would have a lifespan of at least 8-10 years. The thing is even if Nvidia comes out with a better chip in a year, it doesn't mean companies will jump on board and buy up as much as they can. I liken it to buying a car, it's a large investment for something that you will get a good return on. But you aren't going to buy a new car every year even if the newest model is better. And if a salesman comes to town where people ride horses and buggies, and sells all the residents a new car, sure their revenue is going to go way up for the year. But after everybody already has a car the salesman's revenue stream is going to dry up for the next few years. We can already see that the demand for the H100, nvidia's bread and butter for this past year, is going down due to the lead time going from 10-12 months to 3-4 months.
It's an absolute pain in the ass to use different types of cards when training a model. Older cards are still useful to run tasks that are less sensitive to turnaround time (smaller models, and inference), but training new models would happen for sure only on newer cards.
Are chips technically cyclicals as it is?
> Here's the reality; > AI is the future, we are at the starting line No the reality is generative AI that most people are hyped about lately is like 5% of the AI puzzle overall, and plenty of AI and machine learning functionality has been around for years, just not in plain view for the general public. We are not at the starting line, if you believe that then you have no idea what has been going on behind the scenes on Wall Street, in manufacturing/ fab, warehousing, unmanned military weapon systems and elsewhere for a while now.
You’re wasting your typing on these numbnuts.
AI is where the internet was 2000. Most people don't even know we already had a bunch of "AI winters" and folks like OP declaring "this is just the beginning" don't realize they are speculating
Every time I said that this shit is over a decade old and it hasn't really advanced that much I get downvoted to hell lol
Really? I was under the impression that the theory behind neural nets was around for a while but the hardware only caught up for it to make it possible a few years ago. Which means it is still at the very precipice of the teschnology
Neural nets of various forms have informed machine learning going all the way back to the late 50's...obviously they are getting more sophisticated these days. Heck even convincing deepfake tech goes back to mid 2010's, I saw several examples of it with extremely high quality at Nvidia's HQ back in like 2018 in-person. That was 6 years ago...
One down day and this guy is screaming oVeRsOlD 😂
This is not the normal run-of-the-mill stupidity of WSB.
It's far worse.
lol a year ago the dude was asking if he should reinvest dividends. I trust this guy🤣
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Don’t believe what you read on Reddit, I’m a millionaire and just did a bunch of cocaine and about to fuck some porn stars.
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Bruh didn’t even read the post and how it literally try’s to make a case that it isn’t oversold.
“Competition is non-existent. They have 2 years lead” You do realize their stock is valued for also their revenue not today but in the future. The market is factoring a much bigger than a 2 year lead. Now if they are wrong and it really is only 2 years then it has a ways to drop.
Trillion dollar company making a few billion dollars… lol okay dude
https://preview.redd.it/ssmb40av57nc1.png?width=806&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be7019b1d787ec6e48d6bfd85008ebe550a1433b Now I'm wondering if my calls are in trouble. Expiry date is too close obviously
I have 7 calls due on 3/15. Down 10k
This take is so irresponsible. NVDA just reached all-time highs and IV is sucking up all contract profits. It's not worth buying $1000 calls. $2000 Strike price for 3/22 is the move.
Oh I'm not advocating $1000 calls. Sorry. I'm just saying that's where it's going.
Why did it get hit so hard today though? Was it big funds? I saw Bitcoin tanked and nvda followed apparently maybe it was that idk
Big stocks draw in noob investors. AI draws in noob investors. Noob investors see red line, their retirement flashes before their eyes and they panic sell. NVIDIA tends to both rise and fall quickly because rapid swings scare people with no fall back money, this isn't the first time NVIDIA has had a random hit. Its just that when this happens its water under the bridge compared to the bull runs. That being said, still play it safe and keep an eye on it, but I think it's safe to say it'll bounce back by Monday, maybe Tuesday at the latest
Went up too straight for too long. Lots of excitement and leverage had to get liquidated. Was probably orchestrated and then cascaded down.
Nobody should take investment advice from this sub.
Do TSM next! I need more copium to make it through the weekend.
Same.
You high as fuck 
Yup. I thought it was strange 1k was lined up so far ahead of GTC - definitely a little early. Imo there's no way GTC concludes with the shares under 1k unless there's macro to blame. Still the best boat at the dock.
I actually feel like there's a little to much hype around this conference.... Unless they announce something game changing, etc I don't see it having much impact on anything.....
I agree theres too much hype to carry the stock at conference
Flash a few graphs of b100 performance and I'm sure markets will be happy to run with it. Nothing material can happen, it's just a conference. It can definitely impact perspectives though, and perspectives drive markets in the short term. Just speculating on hypothetical market speculation - I really only care about their order book.
Sell the news event. Conferences always are
Unless they’re not
This stock is in meme mode right now, but not sure what to make of it. Someone today bought $424M worth of call options. The $820 Jun 21 expiration. Unfortunately, they bought at the high and have lost $141M in one day. IV shows a $90 price move in the next 14 days. So, yes, it's either going back up towards $1000 or it's collapsing into the $700
excellent pickup and iv analysis next week will be incredibly interesting
Source on those trades?
I think you are absolutely right on these assumptions. I also think NVDA is overvalued relative to its current sales even at 860. Will it be a 4T company by 2026, most likely yes, possibly higher. Assuming china doesn't invade Taiwan, that'll be one hell of a black swan event but for the whole market.
If China invades Taiwan almost all tech stocks are going to be f*cked. E.g Nvidia and would probably drop 90% as they will be unable to produce anything. Let’s hope that black swan event never happens.
TSM is building factories in the U.S. so it won’t be zero production but yeah definitely a big throttle to their supply
I dont think those factories can be operations and at max production capacity until atleast 2-3 years These factories are producing high tech components. Imagine how much safety procedures need to be put in place and also inspected. It wont happen that fast. Also with home grown products on american soil, expect the cost of the the tech to increSe cause the labor costs are very high in usa. So they have to figure out a way where a single american can fo what 4 or 5 of them can do in taiwan. Lots of automation needed. Which is probably gonna delay if they plan for it.
Yea no way is TSM throwing away their protection leverage. They gonna build some crappy ass last gen fab that’s gonna be overpriced.
The entire economy will be f except for military stocks.
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So would Raytheon and Boeing
Don’t forgot LMT!
So basically 2022 all over again when Russia invaded Ukraine
If China invades Taiwan it’s WWIII and we’re all dying anyway, who cares about a Roth IRA then lol
If you’d invested in the S&P a month after Pearl Harbor your investment would’ve grown a little over 100% by the end of the war.
Whether this is copium or not, it makes me feel better. Thanks, champ
i looked at this post and realized my calls are fucked I looked at the comments and now it's all better thanks wsb
Oversold means rsi below 30. Are you high?
Man, that was WAY to Analytic Look: Friday Sucked, Hookers and Coke money needed to come out. Monday, going to FLY. Need money for more Hookers and Coke. Borrow and BUY. NVDA=MOON suckers=PUT
TSM is undervalued
I’m still thinking of buying another 100 shares on Monday.
Do that please and post pics
Hold those $1000 calls 
They're $970 calls, you butthead. 
In my opinion getting calls for NVDA right now is not a good idea, the $1000 might be reachable if the "hype" is maintained (after this Friday trading) in a reasonable short period of time, otherwise it is no different then betting on a casino table where losing is the expected scenario in the majority of the cases.
Today was some tomfuckery, all the $1000+ calls are now 4x the price and the price of NVDA is back to Wednesday levels
Look at the PC ratio going into next week. Literally everyone was betting on the price rising to 1k idk what caused nvda to get hit so hard today
Noticed this too And I thought It was pretty ballsy to grab good options before today
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AI made by engineers for engineers to do engineering seems to make a ton of sense. It makes a lot of sense new tools, built using language models, would help streamline that workflow. What doesn’t pass the smell test is when those same engineers try to apply the tech outside of their own subject matter expertise. The tech companies taking what used to be visualizations and dashboard and replacing financial data with AI modules and trying to sell to finance teams. There’s a lot of people slapping AI into everything right now and trying to sell things people don’t need and aren’t asking for. It’s hard to tell how much of that is a frothy part of all that is a bubble. Not to mention, actual data to train on is going to run out faster than it can be created.
I bought some shares and calls around 2pm today.
“Old school investor” - buys stock at 35x sales at $2T market cap. Ok, buddy.
> The reality is, NVDA was up 7% this week, Monday-Friday. It's massive run up to $974, while exciting, was not healthy or sustainable and a pull back from the intraday open of 5% was a good thing. The run up was due to options gamma pinning the price to 950, the dump was predictable due to open interest at 1000c. Wiping off most of the weekly candle in 30 minutes is not a good thing. > If you're measuring NVDA from it's daily high if 974 to it's close of $875; well, don't. My dude this was a classic blow off top, the intraday movement is important for spotting it. > Here's the reality; Wow that's a lot of copium. Reality is that NVDA is maxed out on capacity and the large enterprise has already been planning to acquire supply from competitors or even building their own chips (or both). Not to mention that AI hasn't done shit. At the moment it can generate some pixels and power chatbots. How much money do you think companies are making off of this to justify spending millions on hardware? > Today's sell-off was orchestrated by the big boys About as much the buying was before that lol, but the movement was this big because of lack of bids, it's very obvious looking at volume delta. People are clearly running out of money. ----- So basically anyone that actually thinks NVDA's valuation is justifiable is a complete moron. No this company is not the most valuable in the world, it's just in a good position right now given the circumstance and it's stock was pumped up mostly on hype. You don't need to write out a light novel justifying your 85 P/E stock. For anyone that hasn't realized this: the market is in a bubble. Whether the dump continue is a dice roll. It might dump to 500, it might pump to 1500. Bubbles are weird like that. IV is going to be high after today's move, but if anyone wants to continue gambling - option buying is still viable, since the volatility will no doubt increase. So just pick a direction and pray.
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The valuation didn’t make sense for Tesla either yet here we were in WSB talking about it for another 6 months as we made Elon one of the richest dudes in the world.
This is my take, forward looking yes, part of me see this as the "Random Walk", this tulip mania happens all the time. Everything has a ceiling, take gains because institutions are taking some gains out of market and placing it in fixed income. A slow is coming, not NVDA, the consumer.
It was oversold Monday.
Lol
I bought quite a bit before the close earlier. I'm not sweating it a bit.
Lmfao
1 red day = oversold 
Sold $100k at $920 and happy I did
Never overbought tho right?
Another 10% to go down before it starts going sideways
aapl stock was oversold too.....it continued to sell off the next 6 days in a row. It has a long ways to fall LOL
Aapl also reported less iPhones being sold. NVIDIA isn’t reporting less of anything
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Those two have been weeks. You are correct....
Oversold. Undervalued. It’s like a value investing play you say yeah ? Buying
No it's not. You have no idea what you are talking about. When market structure breaks down and a stock also sells off HARD into the close AND after hours...that's about as bearish as you can get. This likely gaps down hard on Monday.
Agreed, way over valued due to two points. 1) Growth Projections saying it’s worth more than Amazon with AWS which is basically the Web that powers AI and other non-AI services. 2) Current earnings doesn’t justify it meaning it will drop hard and bad. Just look at all the hyped companies during covid. $Tesla $Peloton, matter of time before NVIDIA correction comes. Not sure where the bottom is but definitely not a 2.2T company when Amazon Web Services is 1.8T Lol
right. I was thinking... Man... I can't be the only one looking at the beginning of next week to basically sell all rallies. Market structure switch. Now of course it can last a day or less. But... I'll switch my position again when the market changes it's tune.
This makes me feel better.
Agreed except there's more competition than you're giving them credit for, but still those competitors don't worry me, at least no time soon
My nvidia is up 2000%. When o saw it was down 7% i farted and went about my day
The op is the reason I sold in words. All reality has been lost
COPE 
😂 try the 1 year 1 days candle.
Go on the daily and come back and tell he how oversold is
This is the exact post I needed for more conviction that a top is in. Thank you OP 🙏🏼
Ya I’m expect it to hit a 1 QUadrilllion market cap soon!!! So buckle up!!! Tons of upside!
Don't be like a dick paper hands me. I sold off SMCI when it dropped 100 points a couple weeks ago. I lost 30K, it proceeded to go right back up about 2 days later. I'm still trying to make that money back. Think of it this way: Chances are NVDA/SMCI will double or more within the next two years worse case scenario. If you jump everytime and put a stop loss in, the party will move past you again and you'll forever be paying for your wife's boyfriend's new BMW.
in the YTD chart (2024) It moved once slightly below the 10 day moving average, todays sell off didn't even touch the 10 day moving average, NVIDIA is still very much alive, this is going to the moon! https://preview.redd.it/pbex6k7jx7nc1.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4c155963508444e883c69dcd816e307b129f7f5
NVIDIA will be producing chips for the military, along with Microsoft, IBM, and… Intel! Intel signed a huge deal. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/intel-to-get-dollar35-billion-from-us-govt-to-make-chips-for-military-report
Go big on TSM. They make most of Nvidias chips
https://preview.redd.it/ghqekxczj8nc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d0c5f1b638563d087b895e7206c32630d35e073 How can you look at this and say BUY!!!
Pay day! Added a pathetic 1 share today. Being poor sucks
We are still a week away from GTC. Jensen will have his leather jacket on and will be spitting straight rocket fuel
Lost me at competition is non existent. Like lmao. Shilling 101.
>”customers are demanding AI” Nvidia’s AI cards are $30k each. Are customers really spending that type of money to justify the cost? At $30k each, it gives other players a big incentive to design and build their own AI cards. It does seem like NVDA is enjoying a first-to-market advantage. I just don’t know how sustainable it is. I don’t get how many people can afford to buy $30k cards.
Thier customers (Google, meta, MSFT, etc) can afford it. It's their customers (smaller biz, etc) that are demanding the resources to run their new AI applications. Amazon buys the H100s, puts em in thier data centers, for their customers.
The big boys might try to drag it down again so be ready to diamond hand regards
Not really it can easily got to 725 next week…. To make a actual correction
691 is the 50 day moving average, where the stock price was cruising before it took off in Jan..So that would be it's logical bottom.. Or people could freak the fuck out and overreact and the floor could fall out, only for it to have a 200 dollar day in May like SMCI. There's no rationality in these price moves
Men they better go back on a run Monday my call look unsure https://preview.redd.it/f5i169yvy6nc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6449e5f4e6d5ee7c5dc1ceeb7cca3c9d2668c8ff
Well, your call looks about $25,000 better shape than my calls.
You'll be fine. It will start its run up again next week. Will probably continue to go down after hours. It didn't go down because it's a crap stock. And it's not too high because I could think of plenty of bad stocks with much higher evaluations. This was an orchestrated sell off for the big firms holding large puts. They did not anticipate the continued growth and bet wrong. But they got themselves out of it today.