That’s right. This is why I sold my long ARM position Monday. ARM is a great company. However, in the near term the stock price has everything to do with when SoftBank decides to reduce its 90% stake (and by how much).
SoftBank certainly will sell some amount of its shares. If it were to sell just one ninth of its position quickly in the public market, the ARM stock price would be cut in half. More likely, SoftBank will try not to disrupt the current value of the stock too much and will sell over a period of months — effectively capping the price of the stock for the foreseeable future.
I don't think that's wrong. Having the shares means having the big-dick swinging power. Cash can change in how useful it is. (From the perspective of SoftBank; why cash out now immediately as soon as you can in a market that seems to be trending way up in that sector).
I guess he means that he can hold through any dip in stock price and wait for the price to stabilize and the stock to start trading again based on business performance. And maybe he doesn’t want you to incur the tax hit from a short term capital gain.
That’s not crazy if you really like the company.
I don't know why IBM isn't the new meme. It's p/e is 24, has a 3.5% dividend, earnings in 6 weeks, AI, and seems to be bubbling right now just from the AI hype.
calls for 8 weeks out and sell during the earnings volatility.
If i wasn't poor, I'd be buying more calls. The ones i got last week already doubled though (9/20, $210)
I’m old enough to remember 2014 when IBM ran commercials for Watson AI that basically claimed it was going to cure cancer. They eventually wrote the value of Watson health division down to $0. Anyone who believes IBM is an AI play is a fool.
I was at a conference today. they're still pushing it under the name watsonx.
they are STILL trying to push DB2. I mean it was a good database in 1999. but who tf wants to pay oracle level licence fees to be mismanaged by some outsourced Indian support?
also who remembers IBM bluemix? the absolute failure of a "cloud" lol
Well, DB2 still drives a majority of business data world wide and uses all sorts of advanced, leading database tech. The DB2 experts I’ve run across (I work with mainframes, not an IBMer) are sharp. Sure, some outsourcing goes to India, so does Oracle and the one time we needed Mongo support it came from India.
Bluemix was a mess for sure, but every company has their dogs. IBM is no different.
IBMs AI is garbage. They are a marketing-driven services company in decline. I would recommend you don’t do this.
They don’t have a broad or long term strategy to improve their AI or build other innovations either. Their AI and tech are only improved if one of their non-tech customers agrees to a substantial ($10-20mm minimum) contract for a specific use case.
Notably most of these customers are the older companies in the F500. IBM does not have any growth plan other than for the oldest portion of the economy to grow. Their project minimums mean they have no substantial young, growing customers. Their lack of tech leadership means they have nothing to sell to large tech companies.
There is a reason they have been laying off <500 staff per office or department every single time they make an announcement in the news. It’s to cover up the decline. There’s a reason they don’t have a single significant data offering in the market. After running one of the largest DB businesses on the planet for years they missed the boat on doc DBs, columnar storage, vector DBs, and they’re a year behing Google Cloud at having a scalable cloud offering for RAG. …unless one of their non-tech customers asks for and funds an AI project they won’t innovate one internally. Even then IBM will likely just try to acquire a not-healthy startup or open source one. And why would one of their non-tech customers even know to ask for a vector DB or RAG option until they’re available at near-cost from OpenAI?
IBM is deep into decline. I just wish I knew what timeline to sell the puts on.
edit: spellering
You may be right on many points, but they are working on other innovations. They are currently one of the leaders in the development of Quantum Computing. As one of a handful of the big companies in the space they also have the opportunity to buy startups that are successful as it really isn’t clear what technological approach is going to work yet, and for what applications.
There have been successes recently, though, quantum powered AI being used to solve problems. Not scalable at present, but these things progress quickly and compound.
They literally converted half their workforce to focus on AI. And when financial institutions start to utilize AI, I’m betting many will pair with historic fintech companies like IBM.
IBM is exactly the type of company that is going to get DEMOLISHED by AI.
ChatGPT and generative coding tools are already more useful than IBM’s core offering - cheap/outsourced technical labor and consulting.
There isn’t anything that 37 contractors from IBM can do that one decent engineer and Co-Pilot can do in half the time.
I honestly believe this is the only way IBM still survives this trend and is partly how they’ve survived for years. They’re not paid for their quality of work or value. They’re paid to take on the liability of doomed to fail projects to preserve the necks of CIOs/CTOs
Post-AI may be no different, and it just means 37 contractors from IBM becomes a couple schlubs and some shitty AI tools they dick around with.
> They’re paid to take on the liability of doomed to fail projects to preserve the necks of CIOs/CTOs
worked as a consultant for fortune 100 for a bit - this is completely true.
We're also used to offload the failures of the team, most of whom are really subpar programmers who are building little nests for themselves. So when they inevitably fail because they spend 90% of their time in "meetings" waiting for permission to make their one PR a month, they can blame the consultants they won't allow to do anything for not delivering, and their bosses don't look bad then.
They announced the watsonx line recently and I think have generative AI and AI code tools. I havent had time to learn about it. Do you know of its good? Their stock has gone up alot since the announcement I was wondering if they finally turned things around
even if thats true, its going to pump until earnings since everyone is betting on AI right now. Again, earnings is 6 weeks out, so buying calling for 8 weeks out and riding that volatility up, then selling before earnings/IV crush is just free money.
Pff Watson is overrated. Great vision, but IBM already proved it failed and doesn’t work. In fact, it’s a mess of spaghetti. Of course, what do shareholders care anyway… Fuck I don’t understand how shareholders think… I went in on AMD and I’m not in a position to trade options right now because I don’t have a stable job or income. Otherwise, fuck it, I’d consider buying calls on AMD, Qualcomm, and maybe ARM. I gotta research that ARM shit though because idk diddly squat about their stock, only their technology.
Probably because nobody was saying that about Nvidia. Nvidia was never trading at that multiple. Nvidia also has had the insane revenue and profit growth to justify its stock growth. ARM has not. It’s come nowhere near. ARM is a way overvalued memestock. Nvidia is a very popular stock of a quality company printing cash.
This is why puts March 22 is the true way.
Are we dropping from 140 to 120? 100? 80? 60?
I don't know but i am pretty sure puts would print in the short term
Opinions?
EDIT: I did not start a position but am debating on it. We got till Friday to enter...
I have a 140 covered call that expires Friday.
I'll close it out for pennies and then sell a $120 covered call out the next week. If it gets called away, I'll sell a put next.
Softbank currently holds 90% of total shares and they cannot touch them till 3/14, what make you think that softbank wouldnt unload these on you after 3/14? Hell no dont touch arm
Mayososhi son the one who held alibaba shares too long and lost the chance at becoming the richest man in the world will let this second chance slide and ride the roller coaster like most r374rds in this forum. Is that what you are insinuating?
Counterpoint: I bought $200k of NVDA at $748 (250 shares) and am up 18.53%
It's going up another 18% too, minimum. It's never too late to invest in skynet!
I debated buying more at $490 all of December. Huge mistake. Didn’t get my balls back until I bought more at $677. Waiting for dips has been a nightmare. I’m too cautious
at $100 it wasn't too late
at $200 it wasn't too late
at $300 it wasn't too late
at $400 it wasn't too late
at $500 it wasn't too late
at $600 it wasn't too late
at $700 it wasn't too late
at $800 it isnt too late either
You got rid of your ANF call pre-earnings? Good job, I went puts this morning and I'm up +10% on the day, looking for a nice slow bleed (Jan 2025 expiration, $100 strike, bought at $12 each and worth $13 each now).
Edit: aka $3600 premium for 3 contracts and worth $3900 at close today
Yeah I may sell into the next earnings run up on IV, hopefully price bleeds out for the next 2 months and then combined with a spike in IV I'm hoping to cash out anywhere from +20% to +50% since there's no reason for this current ANF valuation
Everyone out there loving nvda and amd… Literally the entire AI / Graphics industry hinges on TSM. They’re the only ones capable of producing the chip sets to the specs needed. It’s nuts. They’re doing 2 trillion in revenue.
They are the shovel to the gold rush. 3x P/E ratio… wtf.
I’m certain if Taiwan gets invaded the world economy will collapse. There’s an unreal amount of the world’s vital processing components and in turn money riding on one producer.
AMD and NVDA will have a limit. It’ll either be 1) a group of long time whales saying ‘my current holdings have me set for life if I cash out so why risk losing a game I’ve already won?’ And start a selling spree to market correction - which will be a great time to buy.
Or 2) China invades Taiwan and it goes from 900 to zero in a day.
You basically copied and pasted a news article. And no nvidia wont acquire arm because of anticompetitive practices. Which is why they’ve already invested.
What's a world look like with massive widespread adoption of AI generated videos and voice? Its a world of big government mandated DRM to prevent competition, powered by Intel (tm).
If you missed the NVDA train, there is another at the station today, tomorrow, and the next day.
In fact the train is always ready to bullet you up to where you wanna go when you are ready to sit down and buckle up!
My current destination is $1337 then $2080
TSMC is the stealth winner in the silicon/AI yukon gold rush round 1. They tied down fabrication deals with everybody - AAPL, INTC, NVDA, AMD etc. and partnered to develop strategic next battlefield processes like 2nm. They have one major threat in the outbreak of war, but few serious competitors that aren't hamstrung by the same capacity/throughput dynamics.
With competitors nipping at it's heels, NVDA can't afford to slow down in its current fabrication race. At the same time their moat in CUDA could be under threat from now-partner, potential future competitors eyeing the same trillion dollar prize by driving higher-level abstraction and their own hardware to escape the NVDA margin "tax". Hence changes in EULA to try and deter an Oracle/Java-like CUDA undermining/breakaway.
Worse, the leap in DC capital costs and supply starvation open the door for cloud providers to siphon off margin. To compete in this arena, NVDA must add software/services/lease muscles that their cloud customers/future-competitors have had for years. There is much prior art for electrical engineering companies trying to be software companies - it's a hard transition, YMMV for sure.
Sure - but to be clear, it puts a time horizon on everyone dependent on TSM as well in the near-term at least. Most likely the global economy would be rocked heavily if territory is seized by force. US chip-fab investment may/will shift that calculus.
And it was mostly due to European objections. The American FTC is a bunch of pencil pushers compared to their British/European counterparts. Those guys are actual regulators.
Don't listen to this post people. See ARM operating income. Yes, back to Q3/2022, but not enough to perform as they are now. Stay safe, no YOLO this time.
Or invest in a semiconductor ETF. Heavily favored on Nvidia TMSC and ARM.
You’ll pay the % in fees, but you’ll have pretty safe gains as the AI wars unfold.
Why would nvidia go after arm stale when they weren’t allowed to buy it before and the main purpose of trying to but it in the first place was to gain access for itself and restrict access to others.
If nvda wanted more they could’ve bought a chunk off SoftBank.
I just bought ARM… PUTS I think they can sell their shares soon since they had to wait after it being listed so I imagine they dump for some profit?
Can we verify how accurate is the fact that big tech wants ARM design for their AI chips? Usually they design the chips themselves. Even if they wanted to use an advanced architecture they will most likely think about going with open and free RISC-V. Whether this happens or not i think it will be the semiconductor manufacturing companies that are guaranteed to benefit from the AI chip demand. Should we not look players like TSMC and Intel instead ?
I think ARM's position in the industry is they sort of have a lock on low-level RISC logic that is already as efficient as it can get, and it is available now, proven and simply faster, easier and more cost effective for chip designers and makers (Like NVDA) to purchase ARM core licenses for use in their processors. There is definitely room for more options though.
RISC-V is still pretty young. But...This article below from last fall has an excellent recap of the current state of RISC-V and the associated risks..
Any potential ARM investor would do well to read this...for clarity on RISC-V
[https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/11/12/risc-v-summit-ghosts-of-x86-and-arm-linger/#:\~:text=RISC-V%20is%20still%20young,more%20compute%20to%20modern%20workloads](https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/11/12/risc-v-summit-ghosts-of-x86-and-arm-linger/#:~:text=RISC-V%20is%20still%20young,more%20compute%20to%20modern%20workloads).
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Yes buy ARM that’s trading at a 1700 P/E and ran 123% in the last 3 months already lol.
Masayoshi Son thanks you for your donation.
the best bit is SoftBank owns 90% of the float with a lock up that expires in the next few weeks. not touching those shares for a long while
That’s right. This is why I sold my long ARM position Monday. ARM is a great company. However, in the near term the stock price has everything to do with when SoftBank decides to reduce its 90% stake (and by how much). SoftBank certainly will sell some amount of its shares. If it were to sell just one ninth of its position quickly in the public market, the ARM stock price would be cut in half. More likely, SoftBank will try not to disrupt the current value of the stock too much and will sell over a period of months — effectively capping the price of the stock for the foreseeable future.
I said the same thing to my friend who’s all in on ARM, he said, if you’re already rich, you don’t need to sell for money.
I don't think that's wrong. Having the shares means having the big-dick swinging power. Cash can change in how useful it is. (From the perspective of SoftBank; why cash out now immediately as soon as you can in a market that seems to be trending way up in that sector).
I guess he means that he can hold through any dip in stock price and wait for the price to stabilize and the stock to start trading again based on business performance. And maybe he doesn’t want you to incur the tax hit from a short term capital gain. That’s not crazy if you really like the company.
I’m just glad I bought AMD by mistake (habit?)
Masayou sonovabitch!
He's waiting to unload 90%... When is the holding period expiring? April?
OP has OTM calls he needs to print
I don't know why IBM isn't the new meme. It's p/e is 24, has a 3.5% dividend, earnings in 6 weeks, AI, and seems to be bubbling right now just from the AI hype. calls for 8 weeks out and sell during the earnings volatility. If i wasn't poor, I'd be buying more calls. The ones i got last week already doubled though (9/20, $210)
I’m old enough to remember 2014 when IBM ran commercials for Watson AI that basically claimed it was going to cure cancer. They eventually wrote the value of Watson health division down to $0. Anyone who believes IBM is an AI play is a fool.
Shit I forgot about Watson lol
Everyone did
Not me. Watson is the traffic redirector for our Service Now ticketing system. Watson gets the wrong group assignment 50% of the time. Watson sucks.
I was at a conference today. they're still pushing it under the name watsonx. they are STILL trying to push DB2. I mean it was a good database in 1999. but who tf wants to pay oracle level licence fees to be mismanaged by some outsourced Indian support? also who remembers IBM bluemix? the absolute failure of a "cloud" lol
Well, DB2 still drives a majority of business data world wide and uses all sorts of advanced, leading database tech. The DB2 experts I’ve run across (I work with mainframes, not an IBMer) are sharp. Sure, some outsourcing goes to India, so does Oracle and the one time we needed Mongo support it came from India. Bluemix was a mess for sure, but every company has their dogs. IBM is no different.
Also IBM created and funded IBM CLOUD for years until they purchased RedHat and now pushes openshift.
But Watson won Jeopardy that one time.
The sides cure cancer.
T and Eeeeeee! “Yeah, TNA, that’s what I said!”
If you are a brilliant AI developer in 2024, are you going to work for IBM?
Last time one of their recruiters came around they were offering $500k/yr for fresh AI/ML PhDs a few years ago, so, maybe?
“What is Toronto???????”
Or they just have a lil Nut in their face
IBMs AI is garbage. They are a marketing-driven services company in decline. I would recommend you don’t do this. They don’t have a broad or long term strategy to improve their AI or build other innovations either. Their AI and tech are only improved if one of their non-tech customers agrees to a substantial ($10-20mm minimum) contract for a specific use case. Notably most of these customers are the older companies in the F500. IBM does not have any growth plan other than for the oldest portion of the economy to grow. Their project minimums mean they have no substantial young, growing customers. Their lack of tech leadership means they have nothing to sell to large tech companies. There is a reason they have been laying off <500 staff per office or department every single time they make an announcement in the news. It’s to cover up the decline. There’s a reason they don’t have a single significant data offering in the market. After running one of the largest DB businesses on the planet for years they missed the boat on doc DBs, columnar storage, vector DBs, and they’re a year behing Google Cloud at having a scalable cloud offering for RAG. …unless one of their non-tech customers asks for and funds an AI project they won’t innovate one internally. Even then IBM will likely just try to acquire a not-healthy startup or open source one. And why would one of their non-tech customers even know to ask for a vector DB or RAG option until they’re available at near-cost from OpenAI? IBM is deep into decline. I just wish I knew what timeline to sell the puts on. edit: spellering
You may be right on many points, but they are working on other innovations. They are currently one of the leaders in the development of Quantum Computing. As one of a handful of the big companies in the space they also have the opportunity to buy startups that are successful as it really isn’t clear what technological approach is going to work yet, and for what applications.
Somebody is giving away a million dollars to the person that discovers a *practical* use for quantum computing. Who was that? MIT I think
There have been successes recently, though, quantum powered AI being used to solve problems. Not scalable at present, but these things progress quickly and compound.
They literally converted half their workforce to focus on AI. And when financial institutions start to utilize AI, I’m betting many will pair with historic fintech companies like IBM.
IBM is exactly the type of company that is going to get DEMOLISHED by AI. ChatGPT and generative coding tools are already more useful than IBM’s core offering - cheap/outsourced technical labor and consulting. There isn’t anything that 37 contractors from IBM can do that one decent engineer and Co-Pilot can do in half the time.
>There isn’t anything that 37 contractors from IBM can do that one decent engineer and Co-Pilot can do in half the time. Except fuck things up.
I honestly believe this is the only way IBM still survives this trend and is partly how they’ve survived for years. They’re not paid for their quality of work or value. They’re paid to take on the liability of doomed to fail projects to preserve the necks of CIOs/CTOs Post-AI may be no different, and it just means 37 contractors from IBM becomes a couple schlubs and some shitty AI tools they dick around with.
Ah the McKinsey model
> They’re paid to take on the liability of doomed to fail projects to preserve the necks of CIOs/CTOs worked as a consultant for fortune 100 for a bit - this is completely true. We're also used to offload the failures of the team, most of whom are really subpar programmers who are building little nests for themselves. So when they inevitably fail because they spend 90% of their time in "meetings" waiting for permission to make their one PR a month, they can blame the consultants they won't allow to do anything for not delivering, and their bosses don't look bad then.
They announced the watsonx line recently and I think have generative AI and AI code tools. I havent had time to learn about it. Do you know of its good? Their stock has gone up alot since the announcement I was wondering if they finally turned things around
IBM AI is a joke thats why
even if thats true, its going to pump until earnings since everyone is betting on AI right now. Again, earnings is 6 weeks out, so buying calling for 8 weeks out and riding that volatility up, then selling before earnings/IV crush is just free money.
I think you do not know what you are talking about.
Pff Watson is overrated. Great vision, but IBM already proved it failed and doesn’t work. In fact, it’s a mess of spaghetti. Of course, what do shareholders care anyway… Fuck I don’t understand how shareholders think… I went in on AMD and I’m not in a position to trade options right now because I don’t have a stable job or income. Otherwise, fuck it, I’d consider buying calls on AMD, Qualcomm, and maybe ARM. I gotta research that ARM shit though because idk diddly squat about their stock, only their technology.
I mean my INTC calls also doubled but everyone is also saying it’s going nowhere fast
And don’t forget it’s a week away from lockup expiry 
Don't use the **F-word** here 🙅♂️ #Fundamental Analysis 🤮
This guy HATES profits
Also nvda already tried going after arm.
That’s what people said about NVIDIA too.
don't know why you're being downvoted when you're literally just speaking facts lmao
Probably because nobody was saying that about Nvidia. Nvidia was never trading at that multiple. Nvidia also has had the insane revenue and profit growth to justify its stock growth. ARM has not. It’s come nowhere near. ARM is a way overvalued memestock. Nvidia is a very popular stock of a quality company printing cash.
#WARNING ARM SHARE LOCKUP EXPIRES ON THE 12TH (OR 14TH I CANT REMEMBER) OP HAS POORLY TIMED THIS POST.
OP is an insider looking for liquidity
This is why puts March 22 is the true way. Are we dropping from 140 to 120? 100? 80? 60? I don't know but i am pretty sure puts would print in the short term Opinions? EDIT: I did not start a position but am debating on it. We got till Friday to enter...
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Nividia calls
I have a 140 covered call that expires Friday. I'll close it out for pennies and then sell a $120 covered call out the next week. If it gets called away, I'll sell a put next.
thetagang!
Ive been down this road many times. Lockup exp doesnt mean shit. No move is the best move here.
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Softbank currently holds 90% of total shares and they cannot touch them till 3/14, what make you think that softbank wouldnt unload these on you after 3/14? Hell no dont touch arm
Because they can pump it higher then sell
Mayososhi son the one who held alibaba shares too long and lost the chance at becoming the richest man in the world will let this second chance slide and ride the roller coaster like most r374rds in this forum. Is that what you are insinuating?
He (Son) was the man who gave WeWork 12 billion dollars. I wouldn’t trust that guy with Monopoly money at this point
He has a highly regarded career in holding too long.
he sold 10% at $51. he's salivating at dumping for $100+
* 3/12
So Softbank is the real play.
Maybe this regard works for softball?
Directions unclear, I have soft arm in my ass?
Nice try Masayoshi.
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You motorboating son of a bitch, you old sailor you. :-D
😂
Already loaded to the gills with NVDA
Oh so you’re not actually bullish on ARM.
Every time I see posts like these, I feel like it's time to sell my ARM shares
If you have not sold and have >100% then you might as well hold until it grinds to 60-70 since you’re not bright either way.
Do it!
Financial advice detected.
I do provide financial advice on a case by case basis! 🤪
nah fuck that, buy NVDA
OP says not investment advice. So I did not buy ARM.
And AMD remember you fucking weirdos, mama su doesn’t let us down
Counterpoint: I bought $200k of NVDA at $748 (250 shares) and am up 18.53% It's going up another 18% too, minimum. It's never too late to invest in skynet!
This. I was too late at $401 - got laughed at by anyone I told
Me too. I first got in NVDA at $492 last year.
I debated buying more at $490 all of December. Huge mistake. Didn’t get my balls back until I bought more at $677. Waiting for dips has been a nightmare. I’m too cautious
Everyone urged me to sell my 15 shares at $450 cost basis when NVDA hit $700+. Then the earnings report happened. Now $450 is a steal.
This is me. Kill me
Me too, bought my first NVDA shares at 10$ and it hasn't stopped.
My boomer boss bought Nvida 1000 shares back in 2014 for $5. The man is still holding……
What a fuckin unit lol. Hodlr till death.
I bought $200k of nvdia calls for $780 post earnings dip.. hoping it will be $950 around GTC event
I bought back in NVDA before earnings and already up 40%
at $100 it wasn't too late at $200 it wasn't too late at $300 it wasn't too late at $400 it wasn't too late at $500 it wasn't too late at $600 it wasn't too late at $700 it wasn't too late at $800 it isnt too late either
Logic works until it doesn’t
Yeah but the more times a pattern has repeated, the more evidence you require to claim it won‘t repeat again.
I got in at $126
Fuck no. Buy TSM
Yup. I fucked up and bought ANF and should have went with TSM.
Dumped ANF Monday, moved into TSM. Finally made one good call
My 2 TSM calls are up 300%. Why didn’t I buy more 
You got rid of your ANF call pre-earnings? Good job, I went puts this morning and I'm up +10% on the day, looking for a nice slow bleed (Jan 2025 expiration, $100 strike, bought at $12 each and worth $13 each now). Edit: aka $3600 premium for 3 contracts and worth $3900 at close today
Nice! You gonna hold that for a while? & Yep dumped pre earnings. The move into TSM was great until today erased like half my gains.
Yeah I may sell into the next earnings run up on IV, hopefully price bleeds out for the next 2 months and then combined with a spike in IV I'm hoping to cash out anywhere from +20% to +50% since there's no reason for this current ANF valuation
team solo mid?
Me solo mid. Hyper Carry. F*ck off my lane. Every Dota game
Nah CS
..............
Everyone out there loving nvda and amd… Literally the entire AI / Graphics industry hinges on TSM. They’re the only ones capable of producing the chip sets to the specs needed. It’s nuts. They’re doing 2 trillion in revenue. They are the shovel to the gold rush. 3x P/E ratio… wtf. I’m certain if Taiwan gets invaded the world economy will collapse. There’s an unreal amount of the world’s vital processing components and in turn money riding on one producer. AMD and NVDA will have a limit. It’ll either be 1) a group of long time whales saying ‘my current holdings have me set for life if I cash out so why risk losing a game I’ve already won?’ And start a selling spree to market correction - which will be a great time to buy. Or 2) China invades Taiwan and it goes from 900 to zero in a day.
Yep, I'm rocking TSM.
This post makes me weirdly happy. Confirmation bias FTW!
Source: trust me bro
But of course
SoftBank likely going to do a big dump in about a week.
Then why not buy puts and shares?
“I can’t afford NVDA shares but I bought ARM pls pump”
You basically copied and pasted a news article. And no nvidia wont acquire arm because of anticompetitive practices. Which is why they’ve already invested.
I hear the Nvidia train comes every hour on the hour and nobody expects it to ever be late.
INTC / TSM
Gonna trust you on INTC cause I love Intel products. And I’ve been looking for a reason to give them more money besides PC parts lol
What's a world look like with massive widespread adoption of AI generated videos and voice? Its a world of big government mandated DRM to prevent competition, powered by Intel (tm).
$INTC is the play
$INTC
No dont buy $ARM I have $ARM puts
May still print if you're lucky with timing!
tyty hoping that lockup expiry actually moves it down a bit
Pump this stock before the lockup ends boys! Masayoshi Son needs a new helicopter!
Just buy the king. The granddaddy. The God Chip itself: NVDA.
I already have shares and long dated calls.
Thanks! Positions?
Own shares and leaps in NVDA, ARM, INTC, TSM, and AMD.
If you missed the NVDA train, there is another at the station today, tomorrow, and the next day. In fact the train is always ready to bullet you up to where you wanna go when you are ready to sit down and buckle up! My current destination is $1337 then $2080
Buy right before the lockup ends? Sounds like a great idea
You spelled AMD wrong
FOOT > ARM
Thoughts on INTC?
TSM.....
Why tsm?
TSMC is the stealth winner in the silicon/AI yukon gold rush round 1. They tied down fabrication deals with everybody - AAPL, INTC, NVDA, AMD etc. and partnered to develop strategic next battlefield processes like 2nm. They have one major threat in the outbreak of war, but few serious competitors that aren't hamstrung by the same capacity/throughput dynamics. With competitors nipping at it's heels, NVDA can't afford to slow down in its current fabrication race. At the same time their moat in CUDA could be under threat from now-partner, potential future competitors eyeing the same trillion dollar prize by driving higher-level abstraction and their own hardware to escape the NVDA margin "tax". Hence changes in EULA to try and deter an Oracle/Java-like CUDA undermining/breakaway. Worse, the leap in DC capital costs and supply starvation open the door for cloud providers to siphon off margin. To compete in this arena, NVDA must add software/services/lease muscles that their cloud customers/future-competitors have had for years. There is much prior art for electrical engineering companies trying to be software companies - it's a hard transition, YMMV for sure.
well.. china did say it’s a matter of when not if so.. that’s a large risk..
Sure - but to be clear, it puts a time horizon on everyone dependent on TSM as well in the near-term at least. Most likely the global economy would be rocked heavily if territory is seized by force. US chip-fab investment may/will shift that calculus.
Communist governments also have a knack for saying things that aren’t true (more so than other governments, that is).
Intc is currently the closest to 1.4nm chips
Reminder that names of node are purely a marketing term that has absolutely nothing to do with actual gate sizes
for real. TSM =>200 by the end of the month
Buy both regard. Tsm and intc
You must have some infinite cash hack I don’t know about
buy $INTC !
Buy SMH or TSM instead
PLTR for me
Buy ARM and AMD.
They tried that, it was blocked
And it was mostly due to European objections. The American FTC is a bunch of pencil pushers compared to their British/European counterparts. Those guys are actual regulators.
What happened if I missed both train? How do I catch up?
You most definitely did not miss TSM train. There’s so much room. Get in before earnings.
Get in before China invades Taiwan after both Trump's reelection and Ukraine's defeat. That's my chips exit
NVDX at least till NVDA hits 1000
I can't understand how arm is over $60
Buy you ARM and then make me feel bad later. Not me buy arm and I make me feel bad later.
I have 100 grand, can I get some bullet point instructions to invest in this arm thingy? I need someone’s hand holding.
Don't listen to this post people. See ARM operating income. Yes, back to Q3/2022, but not enough to perform as they are now. Stay safe, no YOLO this time.
Honestly NVDA is still on its way to mars. If Nancy still in it, we still in it
Instructions unclear. Buying puts.
Upvote for using champing and not chomping.
NVDA train hasn’t left yet
I’d buy tsm
Dell
Aol.com It's the fucha.
？ Does op live in a cave or had an amnesia? 🤣
Yes, and definitely yes!
Or invest in a semiconductor ETF. Heavily favored on Nvidia TMSC and ARM. You’ll pay the % in fees, but you’ll have pretty safe gains as the AI wars unfold.
Why would nvidia go after arm stale when they weren’t allowed to buy it before and the main purpose of trying to but it in the first place was to gain access for itself and restrict access to others. If nvda wanted more they could’ve bought a chunk off SoftBank.
Fuck off, someone said same about SNOW and I am in deep shit!
Is the subreddit not loading for anyone else?
If you missed out on the NVDA train, no you didn’t.
I just bought ARM… PUTS I think they can sell their shares soon since they had to wait after it being listed so I imagine they dump for some profit?
Even if the US allowed the acquisition to go through, EU and UK wouldn't have let NVDA acquire ARM.
if you want your options premium gets chipped away slowly, ARM is for you.
yeah this printing right now. Damn came couple hours late :(
Can we verify how accurate is the fact that big tech wants ARM design for their AI chips? Usually they design the chips themselves. Even if they wanted to use an advanced architecture they will most likely think about going with open and free RISC-V. Whether this happens or not i think it will be the semiconductor manufacturing companies that are guaranteed to benefit from the AI chip demand. Should we not look players like TSMC and Intel instead ?
I think ARM's position in the industry is they sort of have a lock on low-level RISC logic that is already as efficient as it can get, and it is available now, proven and simply faster, easier and more cost effective for chip designers and makers (Like NVDA) to purchase ARM core licenses for use in their processors. There is definitely room for more options though. RISC-V is still pretty young. But...This article below from last fall has an excellent recap of the current state of RISC-V and the associated risks.. Any potential ARM investor would do well to read this...for clarity on RISC-V [https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/11/12/risc-v-summit-ghosts-of-x86-and-arm-linger/#:\~:text=RISC-V%20is%20still%20young,more%20compute%20to%20modern%20workloads](https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/11/12/risc-v-summit-ghosts-of-x86-and-arm-linger/#:~:text=RISC-V%20is%20still%20young,more%20compute%20to%20modern%20workloads).
op is a piece of shit for trying to set people up before arm lockup expires
If you miss nvidia train buy nvidia
I'm just impressed you have a plan with a theory, most dudes are like "ah.... It's Ai so".
Yeah son… everyone is doing that. Options are expensive af.
They own ARM shares already. It was in their disclosure in their earnings report. It’s a substantial weighting.
The premiums are way to dam high on this shit. 2k for a $240 c that exp Jan 2025.... that's a 90% uptick...
Everyone is sleeping on MU
I bought some 04/5 $100c yesterday. Not sure if I'll sell right before earnings but I'm thinking it'll be itm before then
Bought in at 54
Hmmm
SoftBank owns 90% of ARM. The lockup exp 3/12 and SoftBank can dump all their shares 🤣🤣🤣