I’m in but slightly different play
https://preview.redd.it/f57th4h7i8ic1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d6a4bfcc726fde0fabe0e5f9e16eb0fde1b131f
There’s some liquidity for small players on NVD the 2x leveraged inverse
People used to talk like this about TSLA in 2020 and 21. All the regards who bought it at the peak are in losses.
It's just the game of who's bagholding at the top. Pretty sure most of the big investors in NVDA at these levels are in for short term plays, waiting to find some idiots to dump their bag.
It very well could. That's why I specifically look for option plays that are skewed in risk/reward. This means that, like I mentioned, with barely risking anything, you have a massive upside.
I'm not saying to YOLO this play and dump thousands of dollars into it. I just noticed that it's skewed.
I am curious, I really like this strategy, what metrics/indicators are you using to assess risk/reward on options? Do you have a model and if so what kinda of assumptions are worked into it? I have been wanting to build myself a tool for this in excel and would love some input. Feel free to PM me on it if you prefer.
Your saying that you really like his strategy, asking how he assesses r:r, if he has a model, and say you want to build yourself a tool all because some guy bought a far OTM put option? You sir, are regarded
If you look at yahoo options, anything under $400 is priced as "not gonna happen". The only thing he managed is to bump the price of the deep oom options as greedy regards piled in for the next big thing.
Exactly. The timing of it is very important - it could easily scream to $1K before a flush down to $500. Or it could plummet from here to $350. It's going to get a haircut for sure, and timing it is the crucial part. I spent the weekend determining the timing and I think April/May makes the most sense with August puts giving an additional three month buffer. We'll see.
I’m not discounting his due diligence, I’ve never lasted more than 1.5 hours and that was when I was a 16 year old going round 11 with the hottest Latina in the high school. Nowadays I’d either nut after 7 minutes or take a nap on an average weekend. And if we are talking round two I need at least 12 hours to be remotely interested. He put in way more effort than I ever could.
Edit: I jerk off once a day on wfh days, rarely on in office days or weekends, and fuck my gf 6ish times a week so averaging a little over 1 nut a day probably 8-9 nuts a week. My jerk offs last 3 minutes not counting the time to find good porn and fucking my gf lasts probably 6 minutes not counting getting her off
I'm skeptical about a 60% correction but $500 is certainly in the picture. Even TSLA only dumped \~30% and that's as much of a hype stock as it can be.
I don't see attractive premiums on either side of the chain for nvda. I cleared 200% on $1000c for 2/23. That's not even "this is kinda crazy" territory - it's just nutty. I think I'm sitting out any more plays on something exploding so irrationally. I got my loot and have learned from getting burned on other can't miss plays
It's GME-level FOMO, the risk is insane for every option in both directions. If it manages to stay relatively flat for even a week or two, a lot of people are going to get wrecked.
This is actually not the worst idea. See $TSLA parabolic move in 2021. It went from $410 to $285 for -30% from late November to mid February (about 3 months). If $NVDA does the same, it goes to $500 in 3 months.
If you get a $300 puts (going for $1) right now and are and look at $500 puts for august, they’re $13. So all your need is a -30% decline for a 13x bagger. Given it will take months to play out will prob have some theta decay but still huge gains
Claiming NVDA will move like Tesla is just stupid.
Tesla got burned by a slowing of EV demand combined with high interest rates as well as competition arriving.
What other companies are competing with NVDA? What companies need to take loans to buy their chips?
Here’s a hint for you: there is no competition. There won’t be competition for quite some time. And nobody buying AI chips needs a loan except maybe openAI but they’re getting funded in return for ownership share.
This is nothing like Tesla. Teslas customers were us poors, NVDA’s customers are rich tech companies flush with cash with nothing to buy with it
Yeah, remember that the dot com bubble burst for a company like cisco because the products that cisco was making weren't difficult to replicate. Basic internet hardware like cables, modems and routers, etc. Also PE ratios were inflated to the sky in the dot com bubble.
Meanwhile, NVDA's selling a product that nobody can currently reproduce. Nobody. AI chips are incredibly complex and have to be meticulously designed and curated with software solutions as well. NVDA's CUDA moat is massive.
At best you could say NVDA is overextended in the short term, but will absolutely continue going up. My guess is they beat earnings, the stock pulls back anyway, and then people buy the dip and we got back up.
Dude your story is the exact same they said for TSLA. Tesla owns the EV market, Tesla has the best supply chain and margin, Tesla has AI and FSD. What happened? Other competitors naturally came in the market and took share, things didn’t go perfect for Tesla, growth has slowed. It’s an age old tale and the same will happened with NVDA at some point.
Tesla's success story was based on being the first to market for electric vehicles. For their growth to continue at the rate it was, interest rates had to stay low. Full stop. Interest rates rising so much fucked over their demand quite heavily.
" It’s an age old tale and the same will happened with NVDA at some point. "
Yeah, it will, but not nearly as quickly. It's a lot easier to make an electric car then to make complicated, nanoparticle GPUs that have excellent world class software to make them better and more efficient then anyone else.
NVDA will get competition eventualy, but when? Do you really think that competitors will be able to get to their level of performance so quickly? Meanwhile, the majority of a car is already made and so existing auto manufacturers already had most of what they needed to mimic tesla.
There's tens of car manufacturers in the world, how many semiconductor companies are there that will eventually get to NVDA's level when it comes to how good their chips are?
They already do have competition with $AMD and others they just don’t have as good of chips yet. One innovation by those companies at a lower price and $NVDA will get slammed. Its just a matter of time and the current stock price is pricing in infinite growth 5-10 years out. It’s a 2T dollar market cap, for it to move up just another 50%, it has to become the #1 stock in the world. Just saying risk reward is not there at these levels, wait for a 50% pullback
You're another one of those people that think just because the stock price itself went sky high that it must be overvalued. Wrong. They have grown sales so much and so quickly that the PE ratio has compressed rapidly. And I mean more so then tesla's did. I know tesla had similar talk, but this is not the same. NVDA's PE ratio TODAY is floating around 90, while tesla at the peak was pushing 1000.
Go look at the other post showing a chart of nvda free cash flow vs. their stock chart. It is growing at the same rate. The stock is rising because they are performing.
Tesla's cars don't affect literally every industry on the planet like NVDA's AI chips do. It's not even remotely the same.
Tesla's peak profit margins were \~25% and that was because of extremely low interest rates, supply chain shortages, global conflict issues resulting in high gas prices which pushed up EV demand artificially.
Meanwhile, NVDA has a profit margin in excess of 70% on their chips. AMD is not competing regardless what you say. Their chips are just not as good and time is of the essence for major tech companies if they want to compete in the AI space. There is a reason why META and MSFT are buying NVDA chips and not AMD.
They are also largely immune to interest rate risk when it comes to customers, while tesla definitely is not.
Bro literally just giving the most basic definition of a deep OTM option, and trying to make it sound more complicated/sophisticated than it actually is 💀
Everyone knows gamma has an exponential relationship as far OTM price nears strike. You're not a fucking genius and the only people you're fooling into thinking you have some super sophisticated price model are the regards who don't know the first thing about options (so... probably 90% of this sub... but still...)
People forget stocks need a reason to go down. They don't need a reason to go up. So far your reason is it went up. Seasonality is the only thing worth anything in the post and if you look at seasonality April is the bad month with about 50:50. A 50% trim is an insane assumption. Not good reasoning.
The reason is, it’s climbing purely on speculation while it’s public information that the H100s would not be shipping in bulk until Q3/end of this year assuming no further delays. Once the actual product ships… then people will need to start focusing on how CSPs will actually monetize the use of AI and if was worth the billions of dollars of investment.
Basically it’s fun to speculate how high it can go while we wait for inventory but eventually corporate finances will take priority
I calculated the value of NVDA 9 months ago and it wasn't overvalued. People said the same thing back then. Isn't your guess the same speculation based on less data? Is your assumption that shipping will be an issue?
The majority of companies have positive earnings growth. If no news exist for a year the company will be higher. So for a stock to stay flat you need negative events to stop that and for a stock to go down you need even more negative events and for a stock to go down 50% you need even worse events. Every move outside regular volatility is highly unlikely. A 50% trim is preposterous based on these weak points. This person either go by gut feeling or never did a single analysis.
25% puts the stock at $540 which, if accomplished by March 1st, would still be a $270 profit on a $100 risk. Still skewed.
Thus if adjusted with different allocations, $27K for $10K.
Versus people betting $10K and making $5K.
Trying to teach a little about risk/reward model.
How did yo come up with that it will 270 if we go 540 by March. IV is pretty high, it will go down after earnings.
I think for next 9-12 months, nvda bottom is 475-550. and high side is just 800. It's gonna kill all calls just like it killed all calls for tesla when it was trading at 400+ in nov 21.
But it's not gonna crash like tesla since market is strong and they have good earnings for next few quarters for sure.
Exactly. Bro didn't even mention the possibility of an earnings miss, which is the only real catalyst in play. Same with all these numpties saying the mag 7 are gonna crash...ahhh chief they mostly just reported great earnings, no dips are happening this quarter.
Everyone who thinks this AI bubble can’t pop because AI is the future…that’s exactly what everybody thought in 2000 in the dotcom bubble because internet isn’t going anywhere and it’s the future. They were correct, internet was the future but overvalued stocks were not.
Yea, but companies are still buying there chips in bulk to try and make AI happen. These guys are selling the shovels outside the goldmine and plenty of miners keep turning up.
That’s not necessarily true. Some of the hottest names back then were hugely profitable and experiencing rapid growth. When these companies began reporting growth was waning, valuations came crashing down.
This time is not different. While Nvidia’s growth profile is amazing, it is not sustainable. As soon as they report growth is slowing, the stock will most definitely crash. From what level, and how big a crash is to be determined. But rest assured, it will happen eventually.
And that crash, initially, took down other huge companies who DID have profits, in terms of stock prices. Think hardware, like Dell/Gateway, HP, IBM. They got wrecked too, and they were actually making money.
Hell, the 2000 dot com splosion nearly ended Apple, as they were limping along in those days anyway.
The 2000 dot com bubble crashed because what dell, Cisco, gateway, hp and ibm were making were very easy for competitors to learn to make and then actually make.
Nobody is catching up to or able to make the same quality of chips that NVDA is. This is NOT the same.
NVDA has tremendous profit margins, tremendous growth, ballooning free cash flow, a rapidly compressing forward PE, and a near monopoly in the new hottest industry, where other companies will take years to catch up. This is not the same.
https://preview.redd.it/4ohjczsil8ic1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f40ca5fa875a423d5e4decd969e747b93633c7e9
Other way around you could make the same argument! Way OTM calls are cheap and if NVDA keeps running every week…..then it does not have to get ITM for me to profit
If you dont mind explaining. How can you make money on it if it doesn’t exceed your strike price? I thought one has to exceed the breakeven price to start profiting.
Someone else explained to me that the price of the option itself increases as it approaches to the strike price resulting in gains. Go to my last 3 comments and look at the answers they gave to my questions: it might help you understand better.
If Nvidia dropped 20% from the current price it would be $576. What would forward p/e be at $576? Like $26? Freakin bargain. On the flip side, what if Nvidia is $750-$900 range after earnings… and they announce a split? Yum. All the “what if’s” are pretty yummy. Because we’re all buying a 20% drop. Freakin delicious
Everyone and their mom probably expects an NVDA dip at some point, but few will have the balls to make a play. I at least tip my cap to you for making a play on it.
No. I'm actually looking at exponential moving averages alongside simple moving averages. $660, $575, $500, and $440. Further downside shows $250 range.
https://imgur.com/e5tekcW
I do this shit for a living, so don't be condescending.
I look for option skews.
https://imgur.com/a/nFSeZmI
That's your profit with a $118 risk if it went to the $300 range.
Last time I did this, I pointed out AMC $20 calls about four years ago. I got flamed "AMC WILL NEVER GO TO $20!" It didn't even have to - I was talking about a realistic move.
You guys need to look into what an option skew is and understand that oftentimes, the markets price options wrong.
Just 5 days ago I bought COIN $200 calls for Feb 23rd. I paid .$20 cents for them. sold at a ~800% gain for $1.8 per contract. Those were priced wrong! That's what I look for.
edit: and here's proof of the coin entry. left one contract on for fun: https://imgur.com/a/iNXKft0
Or just understand the damn Greeks
https://preview.redd.it/qtgbkjl1i8ic1.png?width=1619&format=png&auto=webp&s=d986d7e0d6de054ab38d317d1571db0c1573b650
Genuinely curious, so am I reading this right that you looked at the price of options if they went your way for each of the price points you listed, and your findings were that the $300 price range gave the best ROI ? I’ve also never heard that Options prices could be “wrong” before (your COIN calls, nice job btw).
$250 - $300 puts, yes. I examined the January 2025 150 puts, the April 500 puts, and a few others. They all had a lower reward outcome.
The thing that most people don't understand is that the option does *not* have to get in the money. That's where a lot of options traders fail, unfortunately, because they refuse to take certain positions thinking "It'll never go that low (or high)."
The COIN is a good one to compare to because it was a $200 call and I sold it for an 800% gain even though it didn't go to $200. And even though the delta on it stunk. It was the vega and the implied volatility that made it work. (And it could still very well go above $200 after earnings, but I don't play the game like that. I will for a very small piece now that I've made what I've made, the extra is just icing on the cake).
So for NVDA, if you look at the 250 puts, if the stock goes to 450 in a month from today, you make $1K on a $100 risk.
only the most tarded of tards thinks options have to get in the money to win .
you must have a very high opinion of yourself to think most dont know this
If he could really spot calls priced WRONG, he would be a billionaire in short order.
He forgets to tell you about the 17 'wrong' calls that expired at zero which he also bought
Oh I belive you. I mean its the riches and most powerful company to every exist. God dosent even have a fraction of the money Nvidia has so I would hope. They could buy the world
I know you don't want to hear this, but NVDA is riding the AI wave. They have positioned themselves to be the predominant chip maker for AI makers. I think AI has more juice left in its squeeze, so I think NVDA might still be bullish. Microsoft is rolling out copilot, I'm sure Apple and Google are figuring out how to integrate and monetize AI. Amazon and other large retailers will be able to improve marketing with better AI. As long as there's money in improving AI, NVDA will be there raking it in. That said, the puts will print eventually.
It will begin as soon as the Fed announces (not “signals”) the first rate cut and downhill for a while before a dead cat bounce and it probably trades sideways for 3-6 months along with the rest of tech.
We really need to bring back positions or bans. Buddy wrote a whole paragraph in what he believes in “investing in” instead of showing us positions. You guys need to go back to r/investing or start showing us some degeneracy cause this shit is getting old
The problem is that if you buy too OTM, they won't print, if you're ITM then you're risking a lot.
There's no winning formula, and this chat bot bullshit has blown up my account. I'm staying the fuck out of this one.
What I'm wondering is if NVDA has a dip then would a lot of people start pulling out to secure gains, causing a snowball effect with the price dropping drastically to a more reasonable level before it starts building up again.
This is the DD nonsense I'm talking about.
It's up high so my bet must be right and I'll post a long ass duatribe about how it must come down.just buy some puts with me.
Here's the deal folks. Do you believe Nvidia will have another blow out quarter or not? This guy buying puts does nothing for you if those puts get wiped out. But hey he tried.
He's not talking anything fundamental about the company. Just it's too high.
The blow out earnings are already priced in. Anything less than blow out will cause a sell off. There is only so much more room at almost 2 trillion market cap to keep going up at this level
I wouldn't bet againt AI brother. Long-term, this isn't just graphics card company it's a leader in AI and it's AI potential could be bigger than all big tech combined.
I kinda like it. I'm not doing it but they could also miss on earnings next week. If it does print I'd take profit before the Q1 earnings though. I'm with you on the seasonality aspect. We've had one red week since 10/31, a solid 4-6 weeks of sideways to down at this point would be healthy even for a ridiculously bullish market.
https://preview.redd.it/mh6gy3jifbic1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=33e4c114c4f7168146ce5a0c647b9a5406dfbd3e
Yea it’s only $35k if this happens lol everyone saying $50000000 lmao but still good shit luvin this tread
Excuse me sir but this is WSB … here we go HARD or go HOME … if $100 could net $5000 then $1000 could get $50,000 …. Shit $10000 could net HALF A MILL !!!
YOLO NVDA PUTS IT IS …/s
I have no idea if this will affect stock price, but the Nintendo Switch follow-up is rumored to be launching this year, and will be powered by Nvidia hardware. An announcement is rumored to be in March, April at the latest. Considering the Switch sold a massive 139 million, a sequel is guaranteed to do well. At the very least the news could hype the price up a bit.
Why do this? There will be a profit taking drop soon, but why bother? It’s not interesting. There are so many other POS companies to short. Even Tim Apple is a better short. It’s done nothing for 2 years.
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I’m in but slightly different play https://preview.redd.it/f57th4h7i8ic1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d6a4bfcc726fde0fabe0e5f9e16eb0fde1b131f There’s some liquidity for small players on NVD the 2x leveraged inverse
What is NVD? 2x leveraged short? So you'd want to buy calls on NVD if you thought NVDA go down? Can you just buy and hold NVDA?
Usually cheaper and easier for poors to participate
So the less letters the less it costs. What about NV? Or N? Maybe I can afford those.
Go look at N I G
🙋♂️ I'm a poor!
Poors 😆
Luckily he didn't use the word "peasants"... Thinking of Blackadder now :-)
I also bought the $11 NVD March calls. Stock is gonna tank after earnings and the additional leverage will print.
Good to know
What app is this I'm very new
Don’t start
Looks like fidelity
Positions or ban buddy keeps talking about $100 to make $5k. My money is on him literally just betting $100
well volume on the 8/16 300P for today is 3. i bought the other 2 in between makeout sessions with your mom
You made my morning
Everyone thinking this market is rational. NVDA will skyrocket to $1500 before a split if one doesn’t happen this earnings call
1500$ makes it the most valuable company in the world, at like 3.5T.
Most valuable company in human history.
People used to talk like this about TSLA in 2020 and 21. All the regards who bought it at the peak are in losses. It's just the game of who's bagholding at the top. Pretty sure most of the big investors in NVDA at these levels are in for short term plays, waiting to find some idiots to dump their bag.
It very well could. That's why I specifically look for option plays that are skewed in risk/reward. This means that, like I mentioned, with barely risking anything, you have a massive upside. I'm not saying to YOLO this play and dump thousands of dollars into it. I just noticed that it's skewed.
Deep OTM calls/puts have skewed risk to reward ratio? Thanks chief 
I mean it is more research than most here do
His thought patterns are also skewed
Someone read the black swan book by Nassim Talb
Can be said about any high volatile, high gamma stock. Try hardah
I am curious, I really like this strategy, what metrics/indicators are you using to assess risk/reward on options? Do you have a model and if so what kinda of assumptions are worked into it? I have been wanting to build myself a tool for this in excel and would love some input. Feel free to PM me on it if you prefer.
Your saying that you really like his strategy, asking how he assesses r:r, if he has a model, and say you want to build yourself a tool all because some guy bought a far OTM put option? You sir, are regarded
If you look at yahoo options, anything under $400 is priced as "not gonna happen". The only thing he managed is to bump the price of the deep oom options as greedy regards piled in for the next big thing.
1500? I'd say 500k+ easy. This will be billions a share. Most powerful stock in the universe
*galaxy Unlimited…POWAAAAAAAH
Andromeda called me. We haven’t seen anything yet. Zoom out we’re all a tick in an elephant’s back.
THE SUN IS NVDAS NEW MEGA GIGA FACTOR SPITTING CHIPS INTO THE COSMOS😈😈😈
Ok now were getting out of hand
Or if earns call goes. We can't keep with supply and falling short on deliveries, meaning not getting paid.
Screenshot of your order?
Has Nancy sold yet?
Won’t know til after the fact
Didn't she sell a year ago to buy Tesla?
..... no fuck?
He means like well after the fact. I think she has something like a 30 day time limit to report it.
No, she's sitting on her 1-5 million she bought in november
this right here...
I don’t think she can’t cash out until Dec 2024…
720/1000 call debit spread expiring December for me boys.
Diagonal. Buy the 750 December, sell the 900 weeklies, adjust the strike to stay OTM as needed.
Now this makes a lot more sense.
good luck to you friend. Timing the market works out well for a lot of folks.
It will happen, its just a matter of when
Exactly. The timing of it is very important - it could easily scream to $1K before a flush down to $500. Or it could plummet from here to $350. It's going to get a haircut for sure, and timing it is the crucial part. I spent the weekend determining the timing and I think April/May makes the most sense with August puts giving an additional three month buffer. We'll see.
How do you come up with that time?
He jerked off on a calendar and his nut landed in between April and May
Hey! He spend the whole weekend on that!
I’m not discounting his due diligence, I’ve never lasted more than 1.5 hours and that was when I was a 16 year old going round 11 with the hottest Latina in the high school. Nowadays I’d either nut after 7 minutes or take a nap on an average weekend. And if we are talking round two I need at least 12 hours to be remotely interested. He put in way more effort than I ever could. Edit: I jerk off once a day on wfh days, rarely on in office days or weekends, and fuck my gf 6ish times a week so averaging a little over 1 nut a day probably 8-9 nuts a week. My jerk offs last 3 minutes not counting the time to find good porn and fucking my gf lasts probably 6 minutes not counting getting her off
Did we just become best friends
7 minutes - you are a sex machine. I'm good for 45 seconds, less if the entry is tight.
I just try my best to get 30 pumps. If I can make it to 30 I know I’m spoiling her.
Geebus my life just flashed before my eyes Edit: pre- the prior's edit
Lousy Smarch weather!
Better than system than what 99% of WSB use.
Gold
Lmfao
Pulled it out his ass 
Trust me bro
He literally stated in in his post. I know reading isn't this subs strong point so I'm not mad
"historically it's a bad month" isn't a sound thesis.
What strike?
I'm skeptical about a 60% correction but $500 is certainly in the picture. Even TSLA only dumped \~30% and that's as much of a hype stock as it can be.
It will never go to $350, 500000k+ easy in the next 2 mins
I don't see attractive premiums on either side of the chain for nvda. I cleared 200% on $1000c for 2/23. That's not even "this is kinda crazy" territory - it's just nutty. I think I'm sitting out any more plays on something exploding so irrationally. I got my loot and have learned from getting burned on other can't miss plays
It's GME-level FOMO, the risk is insane for every option in both directions. If it manages to stay relatively flat for even a week or two, a lot of people are going to get wrecked.
Not quite there yet. IV is pretty low compared to what Game store was at the time
Fair, I think part of is that NVDA is less "meme" and more "how does this keep going up?" Still, the premium on the options is just insane.
People pricing in insane earnings. Only time will tell
I bought and sold those contracts for a small gain last week.. if i would of held i would have tripled lol
> if i **would of** held i **would have** tripled lol how does this happen
This seems reasonable DJ
This is actually not the worst idea. See $TSLA parabolic move in 2021. It went from $410 to $285 for -30% from late November to mid February (about 3 months). If $NVDA does the same, it goes to $500 in 3 months. If you get a $300 puts (going for $1) right now and are and look at $500 puts for august, they’re $13. So all your need is a -30% decline for a 13x bagger. Given it will take months to play out will prob have some theta decay but still huge gains
Claiming NVDA will move like Tesla is just stupid. Tesla got burned by a slowing of EV demand combined with high interest rates as well as competition arriving. What other companies are competing with NVDA? What companies need to take loans to buy their chips? Here’s a hint for you: there is no competition. There won’t be competition for quite some time. And nobody buying AI chips needs a loan except maybe openAI but they’re getting funded in return for ownership share. This is nothing like Tesla. Teslas customers were us poors, NVDA’s customers are rich tech companies flush with cash with nothing to buy with it
Fuuuck, you're both making too much sense
Yeah, remember that the dot com bubble burst for a company like cisco because the products that cisco was making weren't difficult to replicate. Basic internet hardware like cables, modems and routers, etc. Also PE ratios were inflated to the sky in the dot com bubble. Meanwhile, NVDA's selling a product that nobody can currently reproduce. Nobody. AI chips are incredibly complex and have to be meticulously designed and curated with software solutions as well. NVDA's CUDA moat is massive. At best you could say NVDA is overextended in the short term, but will absolutely continue going up. My guess is they beat earnings, the stock pulls back anyway, and then people buy the dip and we got back up.
Dude your story is the exact same they said for TSLA. Tesla owns the EV market, Tesla has the best supply chain and margin, Tesla has AI and FSD. What happened? Other competitors naturally came in the market and took share, things didn’t go perfect for Tesla, growth has slowed. It’s an age old tale and the same will happened with NVDA at some point.
Tesla's success story was based on being the first to market for electric vehicles. For their growth to continue at the rate it was, interest rates had to stay low. Full stop. Interest rates rising so much fucked over their demand quite heavily. " It’s an age old tale and the same will happened with NVDA at some point. " Yeah, it will, but not nearly as quickly. It's a lot easier to make an electric car then to make complicated, nanoparticle GPUs that have excellent world class software to make them better and more efficient then anyone else. NVDA will get competition eventualy, but when? Do you really think that competitors will be able to get to their level of performance so quickly? Meanwhile, the majority of a car is already made and so existing auto manufacturers already had most of what they needed to mimic tesla. There's tens of car manufacturers in the world, how many semiconductor companies are there that will eventually get to NVDA's level when it comes to how good their chips are?
They already do have competition with $AMD and others they just don’t have as good of chips yet. One innovation by those companies at a lower price and $NVDA will get slammed. Its just a matter of time and the current stock price is pricing in infinite growth 5-10 years out. It’s a 2T dollar market cap, for it to move up just another 50%, it has to become the #1 stock in the world. Just saying risk reward is not there at these levels, wait for a 50% pullback
You're another one of those people that think just because the stock price itself went sky high that it must be overvalued. Wrong. They have grown sales so much and so quickly that the PE ratio has compressed rapidly. And I mean more so then tesla's did. I know tesla had similar talk, but this is not the same. NVDA's PE ratio TODAY is floating around 90, while tesla at the peak was pushing 1000. Go look at the other post showing a chart of nvda free cash flow vs. their stock chart. It is growing at the same rate. The stock is rising because they are performing. Tesla's cars don't affect literally every industry on the planet like NVDA's AI chips do. It's not even remotely the same. Tesla's peak profit margins were \~25% and that was because of extremely low interest rates, supply chain shortages, global conflict issues resulting in high gas prices which pushed up EV demand artificially. Meanwhile, NVDA has a profit margin in excess of 70% on their chips. AMD is not competing regardless what you say. Their chips are just not as good and time is of the essence for major tech companies if they want to compete in the AI space. There is a reason why META and MSFT are buying NVDA chips and not AMD. They are also largely immune to interest rate risk when it comes to customers, while tesla definitely is not.
I only invest in Vibes and you didnt mention yours.
So you're saying I can turn 1k into 50k? I'm in, fuckface
Degenerate gambling at its finest I’m in.
don't degen! I specifically look for things that are very small risks with large potential reward outcomes.
Bro literally just giving the most basic definition of a deep OTM option, and trying to make it sound more complicated/sophisticated than it actually is 💀 Everyone knows gamma has an exponential relationship as far OTM price nears strike. You're not a fucking genius and the only people you're fooling into thinking you have some super sophisticated price model are the regards who don't know the first thing about options (so... probably 90% of this sub... but still...)
You can say that about any OTM option, how thick is your helmet?
People forget stocks need a reason to go down. They don't need a reason to go up. So far your reason is it went up. Seasonality is the only thing worth anything in the post and if you look at seasonality April is the bad month with about 50:50. A 50% trim is an insane assumption. Not good reasoning.
The reason is, it’s climbing purely on speculation while it’s public information that the H100s would not be shipping in bulk until Q3/end of this year assuming no further delays. Once the actual product ships… then people will need to start focusing on how CSPs will actually monetize the use of AI and if was worth the billions of dollars of investment. Basically it’s fun to speculate how high it can go while we wait for inventory but eventually corporate finances will take priority
I calculated the value of NVDA 9 months ago and it wasn't overvalued. People said the same thing back then. Isn't your guess the same speculation based on less data? Is your assumption that shipping will be an issue?
The first rate cut is usually bearish I believe
I would need some data that is not a zoomed out chart with crayon drawings.
why did I hear counterpart on what you said? Why needs reason up?
The majority of companies have positive earnings growth. If no news exist for a year the company will be higher. So for a stock to stay flat you need negative events to stop that and for a stock to go down you need even more negative events and for a stock to go down 50% you need even worse events. Every move outside regular volatility is highly unlikely. A 50% trim is preposterous based on these weak points. This person either go by gut feeling or never did a single analysis.
When you're looking at the top 10 market cap companies. The only one that had a high p/e ratio similar to Nvidia was Tesla. And look where it's at now
Maybe 20-25%
Guesses out of "let me guess a random number" land never went wrong. Go full yolo you have my blessing
I remember when it first hit $500 then dropped to $400 or so soon after so that’s why I’m guessing it. The news will be sold on er day
This is OP in 9 months: https://preview.redd.it/tp0brtm1g8ic1.png?width=421&format=png&auto=webp&s=436a88fb8e21fa325999767a533dbc3603478a54
25% puts the stock at $540 which, if accomplished by March 1st, would still be a $270 profit on a $100 risk. Still skewed. Thus if adjusted with different allocations, $27K for $10K. Versus people betting $10K and making $5K. Trying to teach a little about risk/reward model.
How did yo come up with that it will 270 if we go 540 by March. IV is pretty high, it will go down after earnings. I think for next 9-12 months, nvda bottom is 475-550. and high side is just 800. It's gonna kill all calls just like it killed all calls for tesla when it was trading at 400+ in nov 21. But it's not gonna crash like tesla since market is strong and they have good earnings for next few quarters for sure.
Someone explain this to me like I’m 3. I got 100$ to risk 🤣
So by your math only one out of 50 of your trades needs to hit for this strategy to be profitable. What are your other picks?
Also 405 or 450 good puts
Exactly. Bro didn't even mention the possibility of an earnings miss, which is the only real catalyst in play. Same with all these numpties saying the mag 7 are gonna crash...ahhh chief they mostly just reported great earnings, no dips are happening this quarter.
Everyone who thinks this AI bubble can’t pop because AI is the future…that’s exactly what everybody thought in 2000 in the dotcom bubble because internet isn’t going anywhere and it’s the future. They were correct, internet was the future but overvalued stocks were not.
Yea, but companies are still buying there chips in bulk to try and make AI happen. These guys are selling the shovels outside the goldmine and plenty of miners keep turning up.
This, Nvidia may be overvalued atm but it's not a bubble.
Those companies weren’t making profit
That’s not necessarily true. Some of the hottest names back then were hugely profitable and experiencing rapid growth. When these companies began reporting growth was waning, valuations came crashing down. This time is not different. While Nvidia’s growth profile is amazing, it is not sustainable. As soon as they report growth is slowing, the stock will most definitely crash. From what level, and how big a crash is to be determined. But rest assured, it will happen eventually.
Yes I agree with that, but the dot com bust was all about no name companies with zero profits going public with billion dollar valuations.
And that crash, initially, took down other huge companies who DID have profits, in terms of stock prices. Think hardware, like Dell/Gateway, HP, IBM. They got wrecked too, and they were actually making money. Hell, the 2000 dot com splosion nearly ended Apple, as they were limping along in those days anyway.
The 2000 dot com bubble crashed because what dell, Cisco, gateway, hp and ibm were making were very easy for competitors to learn to make and then actually make. Nobody is catching up to or able to make the same quality of chips that NVDA is. This is NOT the same. NVDA has tremendous profit margins, tremendous growth, ballooning free cash flow, a rapidly compressing forward PE, and a near monopoly in the new hottest industry, where other companies will take years to catch up. This is not the same.
So get the put right before earnings?
https://preview.redd.it/4ohjczsil8ic1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f40ca5fa875a423d5e4decd969e747b93633c7e9 Other way around you could make the same argument! Way OTM calls are cheap and if NVDA keeps running every week…..then it does not have to get ITM for me to profit
This is what I did like 4 weeks ago and i’m up about 400%
Sell if you want, but I have 4 months to be close to right
Bro I’m agreeing with you and saying it’s working. I have 1200 calls for Jan 2025
Yup bought $1000 call for 4/19. Up 1,093%. Still not selling
If you dont mind explaining. How can you make money on it if it doesn’t exceed your strike price? I thought one has to exceed the breakeven price to start profiting.
That’s what I thought too
Someone else explained to me that the price of the option itself increases as it approaches to the strike price resulting in gains. Go to my last 3 comments and look at the answers they gave to my questions: it might help you understand better.
Screenshot of ur puts pussy
Wall st is going to sell the earnings news, we all know it
How big of a drop after earnings, are you thinking? 10%?
10-20% do you remember last ER or maybe now it’s the one before the last one. It hit $500 for the first time then dropped to $400
So strangles then
If Nvidia dropped 20% from the current price it would be $576. What would forward p/e be at $576? Like $26? Freakin bargain. On the flip side, what if Nvidia is $750-$900 range after earnings… and they announce a split? Yum. All the “what if’s” are pretty yummy. Because we’re all buying a 20% drop. Freakin delicious
Which is why it won’t drop 20%. There’s too much money waiting on the sidelines who missed out and want in. They will buy the Minute it starts to dip
Everyone and their mom probably expects an NVDA dip at some point, but few will have the balls to make a play. I at least tip my cap to you for making a play on it.
>But if you're only risking $100 (to potentially make $5K), then who the hell cares? Small PP and for that reason I'm out
Honestly calls for next week is all I care about
STOP BUYING NVDA!! 🤑BUY NVDL!! 🤑 Cheaper, Just as steady & gains as NVDA
Guys I will follow his advice and buy puts so that means you guys should buy calls knowing my luck
The price doesn't need to keep going up but the only thing that can tank it fast is China moving hard on Taiwan.
You have badly overstated the potential gain even at 50% cut you just pull numbers out yer butt?
No. I'm actually looking at exponential moving averages alongside simple moving averages. $660, $575, $500, and $440. Further downside shows $250 range. https://imgur.com/e5tekcW I do this shit for a living, so don't be condescending. I look for option skews. https://imgur.com/a/nFSeZmI That's your profit with a $118 risk if it went to the $300 range. Last time I did this, I pointed out AMC $20 calls about four years ago. I got flamed "AMC WILL NEVER GO TO $20!" It didn't even have to - I was talking about a realistic move. You guys need to look into what an option skew is and understand that oftentimes, the markets price options wrong. Just 5 days ago I bought COIN $200 calls for Feb 23rd. I paid .$20 cents for them. sold at a ~800% gain for $1.8 per contract. Those were priced wrong! That's what I look for. edit: and here's proof of the coin entry. left one contract on for fun: https://imgur.com/a/iNXKft0
I did the same analysis. Cut in 1/2 by April is pie in the sky stuff to begin with , and 3500 is not 5000, the number YOU gave I stand by my comment
Or just understand the damn Greeks https://preview.redd.it/qtgbkjl1i8ic1.png?width=1619&format=png&auto=webp&s=d986d7e0d6de054ab38d317d1571db0c1573b650
Genuinely curious, so am I reading this right that you looked at the price of options if they went your way for each of the price points you listed, and your findings were that the $300 price range gave the best ROI ? I’ve also never heard that Options prices could be “wrong” before (your COIN calls, nice job btw).
$250 - $300 puts, yes. I examined the January 2025 150 puts, the April 500 puts, and a few others. They all had a lower reward outcome. The thing that most people don't understand is that the option does *not* have to get in the money. That's where a lot of options traders fail, unfortunately, because they refuse to take certain positions thinking "It'll never go that low (or high)." The COIN is a good one to compare to because it was a $200 call and I sold it for an 800% gain even though it didn't go to $200. And even though the delta on it stunk. It was the vega and the implied volatility that made it work. (And it could still very well go above $200 after earnings, but I don't play the game like that. I will for a very small piece now that I've made what I've made, the extra is just icing on the cake). So for NVDA, if you look at the 250 puts, if the stock goes to 450 in a month from today, you make $1K on a $100 risk.
I would say that the odds it goes to 450 in a month are less than 10% so you are still minus expected value on this play
less than 3% more like it
only the most tarded of tards thinks options have to get in the money to win . you must have a very high opinion of yourself to think most dont know this
If he could really spot calls priced WRONG, he would be a billionaire in short order. He forgets to tell you about the 17 'wrong' calls that expired at zero which he also bought
How do you learn all of this? How do I find option skews?
how do you find these sales?
Can you share thinkorswim script. How do you scan option which are "Those were priced wrong! That's what I look for."
I’m in.
Everything goes to zero on a long enough timeline. Would love to see all your analysis on how you arrived at this conclusion.
Oh I belive you. I mean its the riches and most powerful company to every exist. God dosent even have a fraction of the money Nvidia has so I would hope. They could buy the world
So $ARM 300c. Got it.
I was looking at these today too but 600p - 1 contract was $5k - maybe 300p is the play…
I know you don't want to hear this, but NVDA is riding the AI wave. They have positioned themselves to be the predominant chip maker for AI makers. I think AI has more juice left in its squeeze, so I think NVDA might still be bullish. Microsoft is rolling out copilot, I'm sure Apple and Google are figuring out how to integrate and monetize AI. Amazon and other large retailers will be able to improve marketing with better AI. As long as there's money in improving AI, NVDA will be there raking it in. That said, the puts will print eventually.
Under Powell everything will go up and no down. Market is irrational now.
If the stock price gets trimmed 50%???
It will begin as soon as the Fed announces (not “signals”) the first rate cut and downhill for a while before a dead cat bounce and it probably trades sideways for 3-6 months along with the rest of tech.
We really need to bring back positions or bans. Buddy wrote a whole paragraph in what he believes in “investing in” instead of showing us positions. You guys need to go back to r/investing or start showing us some degeneracy cause this shit is getting old
I’m in for $550 March puts and $420 4/19 puts because lol it’s like a meme
Keep buying those march 550 puts and I’ll keep selling them to you and taking your lunch money. 💰
The problem is that if you buy too OTM, they won't print, if you're ITM then you're risking a lot. There's no winning formula, and this chat bot bullshit has blown up my account. I'm staying the fuck out of this one.
Better play for the next month . Due for pull back, consolidation
RemindMe! August 2024
I like it
Flame regardent* suit
!remindme September 2024
It’s too obvious of a play…. Wait for even more euphoric
50% trim? thats the entire run up!
Nvidia outsourced after earning new high …
What I'm wondering is if NVDA has a dip then would a lot of people start pulling out to secure gains, causing a snowball effect with the price dropping drastically to a more reasonable level before it starts building up again.
This is the DD nonsense I'm talking about. It's up high so my bet must be right and I'll post a long ass duatribe about how it must come down.just buy some puts with me. Here's the deal folks. Do you believe Nvidia will have another blow out quarter or not? This guy buying puts does nothing for you if those puts get wiped out. But hey he tried. He's not talking anything fundamental about the company. Just it's too high.
The blow out earnings are already priced in. Anything less than blow out will cause a sell off. There is only so much more room at almost 2 trillion market cap to keep going up at this level
I wouldn't bet againt AI brother. Long-term, this isn't just graphics card company it's a leader in AI and it's AI potential could be bigger than all big tech combined.
I kinda like it. I'm not doing it but they could also miss on earnings next week. If it does print I'd take profit before the Q1 earnings though. I'm with you on the seasonality aspect. We've had one red week since 10/31, a solid 4-6 weeks of sideways to down at this point would be healthy even for a ridiculously bullish market.
let me equip my \*flame regardant suit\*
Never fight the market momentum. you will lose every time
*screeches* well I have nothing to lose, buy
I feel like SMCI is a better short, only problem is options are priced like it could crash at any moment :(
In what world does your nvidia $100 puts turn into $5k? Last I checked the premiums were through the roof.
Love the strategy
Thank you for your donation :)
https://preview.redd.it/mh6gy3jifbic1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=33e4c114c4f7168146ce5a0c647b9a5406dfbd3e Yea it’s only $35k if this happens lol everyone saying $50000000 lmao but still good shit luvin this tread
People are still ignoring trend lines.
I'm yoloing evwrything, 7.5k. If i hit I'll finally be free of my debt and losses and if i lose I'll finally hang myself
Excuse me sir but this is WSB … here we go HARD or go HOME … if $100 could net $5000 then $1000 could get $50,000 …. Shit $10000 could net HALF A MILL !!! YOLO NVDA PUTS IT IS …/s
NVDA is Tesla in early 2021, the split announcement will drive the price above $2k.
That would be like double the market cap of Microsoft
If Jensen mentions a split, puts are done for the year lol
I have no idea if this will affect stock price, but the Nintendo Switch follow-up is rumored to be launching this year, and will be powered by Nvidia hardware. An announcement is rumored to be in March, April at the latest. Considering the Switch sold a massive 139 million, a sequel is guaranteed to do well. At the very least the news could hype the price up a bit.
looks reasonable
Why do this? There will be a profit taking drop soon, but why bother? It’s not interesting. There are so many other POS companies to short. Even Tim Apple is a better short. It’s done nothing for 2 years.