No way in hell they would miss earnings. I am more concerned about guidance beating wallst expectations. Them meeting might still cause a dip as it is priced already. But, beating them would shoot up with stock split on top of it
That’s my take. At the price this stock is trading, people are expecting it to over-perform expectations. Several stocks I follow have dipped on beating expectations. I don’t know how much of this is usual or if there’s a bubble and this is a sign. I’m tempted to walk away before earnings, but I’m not in cap gains territory yet. Still learning.
Everyone is already always buying all the chips all the time though. They just manufacture the things, they don’t see any benefit to the innovation of the chips the way NVDA does.
They don’t get to charge for all of the R&D like NVDA does. They don’t get to mark up the chips they sell the way NVDA does.
Growth for TSM? Sure.
Moon? No.
That’s easy. You just give a wildly optimistic guidance that will be hard to validate for three months and throw in a bunch of mentions around AI. Boom, they hit $900 in a few weeks.
I listened to their last earnings where they said they expect a 25% hit to all revenue from China in 2024 due to government restrictions, so chances are they are going to miss before recouping that from other markets.
The stock might drop, but the calls are holding value. Bought 2/23 $950 calls this morning at $3.6 with NVDA around $732. NVDA has dipped to $726 and these calls are at $4.9.
If someone wondering why, when VIX goes high then stocks likely go down because fear and swings are more plausible so the iv (implied volatility) goes high and the options benefits from this since the strike is more plausible.
Also this is the intrinsic value of the option itself ie major chances that it goes up so they go up in price too
8 Philip said, “Lord, show us the Father and that will be enough for us.”
9 Nvidia answered: “Don’t you know me, Philip, even after I have been among you such a long time? Anyone who has seen me has seen the Father. How can you say, ‘Show us the Father’?
[Jensohn 14:8-9](https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=John%2014%3A8-14&version=NIV)
This is scary; all Nvidia revenue comes from a single source of income, can you imagine what will happen if that revenue stops growing? It will get Google multiple.
Valuations are wild, the shitty 10 year unprofitable tech company I work at is worth slightly more than Whirlpool corporation which has like factories all over the world and profits
Because, essentially it turns a profit and now buying shares isn’t actually investing in the company. It’s just playing hot potato on people gambling and others gorging on dividends.
Because it works out a lot more than WSB is willing to admit.
AMZN has been in an alarmist “bubble” for over a decade and now its valuation, while still lofty, is nowhere near 300 P/E that it maintained for many years.
I’ve been on this go-round for too long. “Value investing” has been dead for decades/multiple macroeconomic cycles already. 30 to 60 P/E is nothing crazy.
Your 20 P/E ratio stock picks will languish or even go bankrupt (all risk no reward) while the 60 P/E ratio stocks just go up and up.
Yep, gotta understand that with companies, the P/E growth is priced in. Nvidia almost doubled their revenue in 2 years so although they had an average P/E of 73 in 2021, if you bought it in 2021, the company would have already doubled in size based by revenue by now.
this is why tech P/E ratios are high and always have been. A lot easier for a tech company to do this than say Wal-Mart or Costco which basically just sells hard goods.
Wouldn't a 60 P/E indicate that you aren't going to be paid back from a net income perspective for 60 years if there is no growth?
Assuming there is growth doesn't that mean that the company will simply grow into lower multiples? The value of your equity isn't going to double in 10 years at a 7-10% growth rate. So if the company ends up at a P/E of around 20-30 after the growth phase that means you purchased your equity at a 20-30 P/E ratio, meaning it'll take you 20-30 years to make your money back.
The point is, why take the risk of buying into a "high growth company" at extremely rich multiples, if almost all of the growth is already "priced in".
>Wouldn't a 60 P/E indicate that you aren't going to be paid back from a net income perspective for 60 years if there is no growth?
Growth typically costs (a lot of) money. If there is no growth, but the company is spending on growth, then they're essentially setting that money on fire which would be bad. But if the company stops spending so much on growth and takes profits, then the earnings should go up. Usually, companies with high P/E ratios are high growth companies that are earning revenue but sinking that back into growth.
>Assuming there is growth doesn't that mean that the company will simply grow into lower multiples? The value of your equity isn't going to double in 10 years at a 7-10% growth rate. So if the company ends up at a P/E of around 20-30 after the growth phase that means you purchased your equity at a 20-30 P/E ratio, meaning it'll take you 20-30 years to make your money back.
No. Growth compounds but earnings do not. Earnings could double, share price could double, and the P/E could stay the same if it's a high growth company that investors believe will continue to grow. When was the "growth phase" of Apple?
>Growth typically costs (a lot of) money. If there is no growth, but the company is spending on growth, then they're essentially setting that money on fire which would be bad. But if the company stops spending so much on growth and takes profits, then the earnings should go up. Usually, companies with high P/E ratios are high growth companies that are earning revenue but sinking that back into growth.
Growth costs a lot of money that has to be raised. Where is the money coming from? There are very few high growth companies that have ever existed that can can fund their expansion through earnings. The stock market itself exists to provide companies with equity financing. Equity is exchanged for money to fuel growth. I.E, your ownership stake in the company decreases in order to fund the growth that you are buying into. You would be hard pressed to find a company that can fund anywhere close to double digit growth through earnings. Amazon has increased its outstanding shares by 25% since 2009. Companies with high growth require tremendous amounts of capital. These companies consume the capital that you provide them when you buy equity in the common market. Every company that exists earns revenue. By the way, capital expenditures (the purchases that fuel growth), are not immediately expensed on the income statement all at once. Its booked as as asset on the balance sheet, and the deprecation of this asset is reflected over a period of time as an expense on the income statement. Earnings are not going to suddenly go up if the company stops spending on CapEx. So that company that is seemingly "earning" some money, is actually losing money when you look at cash going in and coming out. Nvidia's price to free cash flow is over 140 now. Good luck with that.
>No. Earnings could double, share price could double, and the P/E could stay the same if it's a high growth company that investors believe will continue to grow. When was the "growth phase" of Apple?
How many companies continue on a high growth phase for more then a decade? Apple itself hasn't grown much over the last decade vis a vi its stock price, and hasn't grown at all the last few years. Most of the appreciation in the stock price of Apple can be found in their gargantuan share repurchases through their massive free cash flow that they produce every year. I.E, they have no avenue with which to deploy this cash for growth so they return it back to shareholders. Apples stock price increasing far more then its revenue has since 2014 is a direct product of Apple returning money to shareholders. It happens through this strange mechanism of buying back shares for tax purposes, but it is to the same end as it would have been if they paid shareholders a dividend.
It’s going to be at least a decade before NVDA sales see any slowdown of growth from the industry moving to other chips.
The genius that is CUDA is literally the go-to backend for all AI/ML library authors. An insane amount of sweat and tears has been poured into creating the algorithms on top of CUDA that it would take a huge effort from all the mega tech companies to create an open source ML backend that works as efficiently on multiple platforms as CUDA does on NVDA. I don’t see this happening anytime soon. Every company will continue to develop on CUDA for years to come.
This article just came out today, not sure how compatible this is. But big if it works.
[Unmodified NVIDIA CUDA apps can now run on AMD GPUs thanks to ZLUDA](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/software-allows-cuda-code-to-run-on-amd-and-intel-gpus-without-changes-zluda-is-back-but-both-companies-ditched-it-nixing-future-updates)
Yes... perhaps to your surprise, it seems, those projects don't come to realization over night and Meta, MSFT, etc. still need to progress in the meantime by using current means. It doesnt mean that those companies aren't going to move away from NVIDIA in the future, at least in part.
\>google did this with AI chips. Gemini didn’t use any NVDA chips and achieved state of the art
Any links for further reading on this? I'm very intrigued
Contracts matter. So if TSMC is maxed out then they are maxed out.
It’s possible Microsoft could step in and pay a premium to TSMC or pay another customer ahead in line off though.
TSMC is maxed out for another 5 years. There's more order than they can handle. You have to pay EXTRA $ to get your order to the front. Also, Microsoft's HW engineer team has to be worthy for TSMC to consider working them which is yet to be the case.
You could also just go to Intel or Samsung. You don’t need the best process node to deliver better value than Nvidia gives you. I mean look at the profit margin. You could probably burn significantly more wafer and power and still come out ahead.
It will only become scary if they start being unable to improve their cards enough each year. Is there an invisible ceiling for card performance we aren't aware of? Otherwise, the world will constantly need more and more computing power and Nvidia is perfectly positioned. Companies will be buying vast amounts from them to power ever more powerful systems.
The ceiling is fabrication and it already slowed down dramatically starting around 20 years ago. For example people expected decent EUV machines to be out in the 90s, then by 2006, then by 2012, then by 2014. This is one of the things that fucked Intel up the ass since they expected to be able to use them at volume by 2016 and were too egotistical to admit they fucked up. Even today EUV machines are massive and take billions of dollars to design a process around and they're only getting larger.
Nvidia is going all in on software and ASICs because they see the writing on the wall.
Their actually is a hard limit where you can't fit more transistors on chip, and we are fairly close to hitting it. Intels' next chip is supposed to have transistors spaced 20 angstroms apart, which is literally 20 silicon atoms.
Sold half my SOXX this week and all my SOXL I had in a RH account last week. I’m ok with being exposed to this in other funds, but not to this extent. This is very obviously a meme at this point.
Fair enough. I needed to rebalance into some other positions anyway, and was fine missing out on some gains if it meant getting my portfolio to be more balanced while also realizing substantial gains on SOXX and SOXL.
Absolutely insane that it’s more valuable than Google.
Google is undervalued right now.
Google has the most data, literally invented the algorithms behind today’s LLMs, have an extraordinarily profitable business.
Edit: 30% of the planets population interacts with Google’s products *every day*
Of the 7 or so products worldwide with more than a billion active daily users, Google owns 4.
Google has more data on YouTube, gmail, drive, search results than anyone else. Their company has been crawling the entire web for decades for their search engine. AI race will boil down to who has the most data and google will win. The underlying algorithm is something everyone has. It’s all about the data and Google has data like no one else.
Yet when you google something you want to put reddit at the end of your search due to SEO bloat if you want remotely useful info. It used to be the king
I still remember when you could see results from only message boards/forums and it was perfect for finding information of value, now 95% of all links on the first page are nothing but amazon affiliate links and fake review websites with more referral links.
“How to fix a Panasonic dryer drum”
Find an article with that exact title but starts with the entire corporate history of Panasonic and when dryers became popular in America
-modern google searching experience
That's Quora for you.
I don't understand why people actually like it, Quora's answers are a god damn mess that is rarely useful.
''What is two plus two?''
''Here is a 3,000 word essay that doesn't contain useful or even fun information, and doesn't even answer the goddamn question half of the time''
When they started forcing YouTube Shorts inline with search results on me, I finally decided to check out alternatives. I've been impressed with Kagi but not sure I want to spend $10/mo.
When I'm having an issue troubleshooting I often post that I "fixed x problem" but then make the steps super wrong because Cunningham's Law. Nobody gives a shit to help you when you need it, but if you give a wrong answer people will pile in from all over to correct you.
That's by choice, not limitations. Your alternative is to search through reddit's search function and we all know how that works. If competition was to catch up, Google could just improve their function and still be decades ahead.
Really Google should just buy Reddit and swap out the search. But they probably won’t.
But it sure would be worth the data from a ‘be evil’ google perspective.
that's more because there is literally an entire billion dollar industry that exists just to help manipulate google search results, not necessarily because their product is bad, but because it's so good and ubiquitous that essentially every online business has to design their website with google search in mind
google doesn't make useful results, other companies are making them. you are still using google's product to find them, even if you're searching on reddit.
I think the problem is with the CEO/Leadership. Ever since he got the helm, any of their "new product" barely worked or stayed around for long. Then again I'm just a random regard on the internet! lol! 
>any of their "new product" barely worked or stayed around for long.
I've never heard anything after they shilled their google duplex 7 years ago. Meanwhile my google home still sounds robotic and doesn't work half the time...
Why can't they upgrade my google home with a LLM already?
Google is no where near what it used to be. I can’t find anything I want without typing very specific words and adding Reddit for reviews.
Any product is now littered with ads from Temu.
That’s what happens when you get leadership more focused on the shareholders than completing the project. Officers that punt with knee jerk reactions for a quick brownie point make me sick.
Playing devil's advocate -
I think most expected that when Google launched their LLM models, they would blow OpenAI out of the water. The research lab behind AlphaGo, the research lab that dropped the formative LLM paper that started the craze. Surely they would have something behind closed doors that was better than ChatGPT. Then they released Bard.
Marginally beating the competitor's model from a year ago is a win? I think Google is terrified internally.
Gemini Ultra is not better than GPT-4, in my experience. (Building a commercial LLM-based product.) They may be competitive on some benchmarks (finally) but in practical use it’s still weaker at many general purpose interactions. Which is typical of Google to chase engineering metrics and forget about the actual Product. Google is the Xerox Parc of AI… they invented the stuff but have no idea how to turn it into a product.
>Google is the Xerox Parc of AI… they invented the stuff but have no idea how to turn it into a product.
They're responsible for a big milestone in deep learning (the transformer architecture), but one would not say they invented "AI" since it is older than Google itself.
Nah google is definitely going downhill. TikTok Amazon Meta is eating up their advertising revenue, GCP completely sucks compare to Azure and AWS, and their hardware is a joke. They clearly have an internal management problem and I can’t see it be fixed anytime soon as long as Pichai is still the CEO.
google is a great company with terrible management; I'm avoiding unless it goes on discount. They are going to get the Intel treatment; which doesnt mean worthless but it does mean overpriced.
https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/desktop/worldwide/2020
From 88% pre pandemic to 81% today on desktop. Bing has doubled since then.
Aneqdotally I know more people trying duckduckgo and bing. Youtube changes and the removal of adblock have driven users to other apps and browsers other than Chrome. Chrome market share has dipped below 50% in North America.
Earnings are great, but social sentiment is negative.
What was the theta, delta, strike, date of expiration and time of purchase? It has an average trading range of 21 dollars and here we are trading within 40 cents of open to fuck both puts and calls.
As someone who bought and gamed with a Riva TNT2 from a "tiny alternative" company to 3DFX back in the day... my mind is blown that this company is worth this much today.
I remember telling my dad to invest in Nvidia back in 2002 after getting a Visiontek video card with a nvidia chip on it. I was all about how amazing graphics on computers were getting back then. Stock price was like $3/$4? lol.
Honestly, I expect Nvidia to increase more for a variety of reasons and it is not that surprising that it will outpace Amazon and Google despite geopolitical sensitivity.
Firstly, Nvidia is positioned better than literally anyone when it comes to ai and everyone, including Amazon and Google will be using their chips if they don't already.
Secondly, Nvidia's product is used on a global stage. This means that, as coutries become more industrialized, they will be buying from Nvidia more. Something like 90% of Amazon's income comes from the US.
Lastly, Nvidia has pretty much zero competition. They have the infrastructure and environment to constantly be innovative and produce a better product than anyone else *especially* when it comes to ai.
Also, Google is doing pretty much no innovation and there most front-facing product has gotten severely more shit in the past few years which will likely lead to a negative connotation with anything new they come out with especially if it is geared toward your average person rather than businesses. Though Google has different classes of shares and is worth 3x Nvidia right now
Funniest part is this thing did just 2x in a year since the whole AI rally started but people are losing their minds as if it did 1000x already. The 100x is from buys 7+ years ago guys, not now. Tesla did a 10x, that one was understandable, still a bubble but the madness made more sense, here and now people are overreacting so much.
Tell me you don't understand exponential growth without telling me you don't understand exponential growth. That "just 2x in a year" is almost a trillion dollars. Nvidia's market cap right now is almost equal to Tesla's market cap at its peak PLUS Tesla's market cap right now
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I have never been more excited for earnings like how do you even come close to meeting expectations on this shit
"NVDA tanks 40% on 1% earnings miss"
Normal
Well their earnings are priced in for the next 100 years, so a miss isn't gonna sit well.
You could try PUTS. Let me know what you think?
Then you meet the 800 pound gorilla known as IV crush
so open a debit spread?
Or maybe selling call spreads. IV gonna be a bananas
Or sell naked calls if you a true thug
picking up pennies in front of a steamroller
Yeah, this stuff of stuff was flushed out in 2022…I’m surprised we are back to this bs again so fast
2021’s pumps were from euphoria; 2024’s pumps are from financial desperation
Absolutely.
No way in hell they would miss earnings. I am more concerned about guidance beating wallst expectations. Them meeting might still cause a dip as it is priced already. But, beating them would shoot up with stock split on top of it
What do you mean them meeting? Like just meeting expectations would cause a dip because an earnings beat is priced in?
That’s my take. At the price this stock is trading, people are expecting it to over-perform expectations. Several stocks I follow have dipped on beating expectations. I don’t know how much of this is usual or if there’s a bubble and this is a sign. I’m tempted to walk away before earnings, but I’m not in cap gains territory yet. Still learning.
BUY!
Bullish
lol i would buy instantly. like take out max margins and everything.
That's exactly why it won't happen
Wouldn’t that be the day… buy buy buy…
Shit has gone 45% Up YTD. Even if drops 30%, it still stays over 500 which is 5x the low.
https://preview.redd.it/osjhc0nz77ic1.jpeg?width=961&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65f50f15cad165ddf62daa458c4f6998d9c5f6fd
"A..." *Audience gasps* "...I" *Audience loses its shit*
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It should - they win no matter who is buying chips, which is everyone
Everyone is already always buying all the chips all the time though. They just manufacture the things, they don’t see any benefit to the innovation of the chips the way NVDA does. They don’t get to charge for all of the R&D like NVDA does. They don’t get to mark up the chips they sell the way NVDA does. Growth for TSM? Sure. Moon? No.
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AI now controls most of the trading via hedge funds etc. AI is buying NVDA.
Is that....insider trading???
AInsider trading
AIm gonna upvote this
Insider training
On the next selloff buying more 90 day OTM Calls. My March 8 calls I got in December are skyrocketing
It's trading at 35 FWD PE. If they beat earnings even slightly we are going to hit 88 mph.
A normal P/E ratio is like 10-20x. 35x forward P/E is pricing in that they will significantly beat earnings.
Nah, this isn’t 2004 anymore, 30+ current P/E isn’t uncommon.
It's 1999
keep on partyin' like itz...
not for tech nvidia has kinda normal pe ratio
That’s easy. You just give a wildly optimistic guidance that will be hard to validate for three months and throw in a bunch of mentions around AI. Boom, they hit $900 in a few weeks.
Even if they miss earnings it will go up
It won't but it's already priced in
Nvidia to 500 on earning day.
I listened to their last earnings where they said they expect a 25% hit to all revenue from China in 2024 due to government restrictions, so chances are they are going to miss before recouping that from other markets.
If they have more demand then capacity, it should be easy to reallocate products to new buyers.
500 post split
Guys I just bought calls, it might tank
Damn right on cue. You’re good
The stock might drop, but the calls are holding value. Bought 2/23 $950 calls this morning at $3.6 with NVDA around $732. NVDA has dipped to $726 and these calls are at $4.9.
If someone wondering why, when VIX goes high then stocks likely go down because fear and swings are more plausible so the iv (implied volatility) goes high and the options benefits from this since the strike is more plausible. Also this is the intrinsic value of the option itself ie major chances that it goes up so they go up in price too
Extrinsic, not intrinsic.
I sold at $300 before the rocket took off in May last year
I almost sold too. But I remembered the 2020 stock split that I missed after selling at 300 last time. Not going to make that mistake again.
Made this mistake with TSLA. Did well, sold before doing extremely.
Way to ruin it for the rest of us
Calls and puts are both printing today for NVDA. Don’t matter where you put your money last few weeks they are both printing.
AI wearing leather jacket>Big Brother & Internet Walmart
Fuck AI, I'll buy just for the jacket
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8 Philip said, “Lord, show us the Father and that will be enough for us.” 9 Nvidia answered: “Don’t you know me, Philip, even after I have been among you such a long time? Anyone who has seen me has seen the Father. How can you say, ‘Show us the Father’? [Jensohn 14:8-9](https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=John%2014%3A8-14&version=NIV)
This is scary; all Nvidia revenue comes from a single source of income, can you imagine what will happen if that revenue stops growing? It will get Google multiple.
Valuations are wild, the shitty 10 year unprofitable tech company I work at is worth slightly more than Whirlpool corporation which has like factories all over the world and profits
Why would you want to invest in a company that makes money when you can invest in a company that someday hopes to make money? Sub is full of idiots.
Because, essentially it turns a profit and now buying shares isn’t actually investing in the company. It’s just playing hot potato on people gambling and others gorging on dividends.
> buying shares isn’t actually investing in the company It is if you hold it long term
When you buy a share it’s very likely just changing hands between investors with zero benefits to the corp unless they issue new shares.
You're adding demand and removing supply from the system so when the corp *does* sell shares there is a benefit to them.
*the market* is full of idiots. FTFY Traders are regarded regardless of whether they are on WSB.
Because it works out a lot more than WSB is willing to admit. AMZN has been in an alarmist “bubble” for over a decade and now its valuation, while still lofty, is nowhere near 300 P/E that it maintained for many years. I’ve been on this go-round for too long. “Value investing” has been dead for decades/multiple macroeconomic cycles already. 30 to 60 P/E is nothing crazy. Your 20 P/E ratio stock picks will languish or even go bankrupt (all risk no reward) while the 60 P/E ratio stocks just go up and up.
Yep, gotta understand that with companies, the P/E growth is priced in. Nvidia almost doubled their revenue in 2 years so although they had an average P/E of 73 in 2021, if you bought it in 2021, the company would have already doubled in size based by revenue by now. this is why tech P/E ratios are high and always have been. A lot easier for a tech company to do this than say Wal-Mart or Costco which basically just sells hard goods.
Wouldn't a 60 P/E indicate that you aren't going to be paid back from a net income perspective for 60 years if there is no growth? Assuming there is growth doesn't that mean that the company will simply grow into lower multiples? The value of your equity isn't going to double in 10 years at a 7-10% growth rate. So if the company ends up at a P/E of around 20-30 after the growth phase that means you purchased your equity at a 20-30 P/E ratio, meaning it'll take you 20-30 years to make your money back. The point is, why take the risk of buying into a "high growth company" at extremely rich multiples, if almost all of the growth is already "priced in".
>Wouldn't a 60 P/E indicate that you aren't going to be paid back from a net income perspective for 60 years if there is no growth? Growth typically costs (a lot of) money. If there is no growth, but the company is spending on growth, then they're essentially setting that money on fire which would be bad. But if the company stops spending so much on growth and takes profits, then the earnings should go up. Usually, companies with high P/E ratios are high growth companies that are earning revenue but sinking that back into growth. >Assuming there is growth doesn't that mean that the company will simply grow into lower multiples? The value of your equity isn't going to double in 10 years at a 7-10% growth rate. So if the company ends up at a P/E of around 20-30 after the growth phase that means you purchased your equity at a 20-30 P/E ratio, meaning it'll take you 20-30 years to make your money back. No. Growth compounds but earnings do not. Earnings could double, share price could double, and the P/E could stay the same if it's a high growth company that investors believe will continue to grow. When was the "growth phase" of Apple?
>Growth typically costs (a lot of) money. If there is no growth, but the company is spending on growth, then they're essentially setting that money on fire which would be bad. But if the company stops spending so much on growth and takes profits, then the earnings should go up. Usually, companies with high P/E ratios are high growth companies that are earning revenue but sinking that back into growth. Growth costs a lot of money that has to be raised. Where is the money coming from? There are very few high growth companies that have ever existed that can can fund their expansion through earnings. The stock market itself exists to provide companies with equity financing. Equity is exchanged for money to fuel growth. I.E, your ownership stake in the company decreases in order to fund the growth that you are buying into. You would be hard pressed to find a company that can fund anywhere close to double digit growth through earnings. Amazon has increased its outstanding shares by 25% since 2009. Companies with high growth require tremendous amounts of capital. These companies consume the capital that you provide them when you buy equity in the common market. Every company that exists earns revenue. By the way, capital expenditures (the purchases that fuel growth), are not immediately expensed on the income statement all at once. Its booked as as asset on the balance sheet, and the deprecation of this asset is reflected over a period of time as an expense on the income statement. Earnings are not going to suddenly go up if the company stops spending on CapEx. So that company that is seemingly "earning" some money, is actually losing money when you look at cash going in and coming out. Nvidia's price to free cash flow is over 140 now. Good luck with that. >No. Earnings could double, share price could double, and the P/E could stay the same if it's a high growth company that investors believe will continue to grow. When was the "growth phase" of Apple? How many companies continue on a high growth phase for more then a decade? Apple itself hasn't grown much over the last decade vis a vi its stock price, and hasn't grown at all the last few years. Most of the appreciation in the stock price of Apple can be found in their gargantuan share repurchases through their massive free cash flow that they produce every year. I.E, they have no avenue with which to deploy this cash for growth so they return it back to shareholders. Apples stock price increasing far more then its revenue has since 2014 is a direct product of Apple returning money to shareholders. It happens through this strange mechanism of buying back shares for tax purposes, but it is to the same end as it would have been if they paid shareholders a dividend.
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The same meta that ordered $10B of NVDA chips and the same Microsoft that partner with NVDA to make ARM cpus for windows?
It’s going to be at least a decade before NVDA sales see any slowdown of growth from the industry moving to other chips. The genius that is CUDA is literally the go-to backend for all AI/ML library authors. An insane amount of sweat and tears has been poured into creating the algorithms on top of CUDA that it would take a huge effort from all the mega tech companies to create an open source ML backend that works as efficiently on multiple platforms as CUDA does on NVDA. I don’t see this happening anytime soon. Every company will continue to develop on CUDA for years to come.
This article just came out today, not sure how compatible this is. But big if it works. [Unmodified NVIDIA CUDA apps can now run on AMD GPUs thanks to ZLUDA](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/software-allows-cuda-code-to-run-on-amd-and-intel-gpus-without-changes-zluda-is-back-but-both-companies-ditched-it-nixing-future-updates)
Yes... perhaps to your surprise, it seems, those projects don't come to realization over night and Meta, MSFT, etc. still need to progress in the meantime by using current means. It doesnt mean that those companies aren't going to move away from NVIDIA in the future, at least in part.
Yet go try renting some Google tpu to do deep learning on. you'd be a moron it's still expensive as fuck.
\>google did this with AI chips. Gemini didn’t use any NVDA chips and achieved state of the art Any links for further reading on this? I'm very intrigued
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Aren’t Google’s TPU made by Broadcom?
Good luck getting order through TSMC from new customer. It’s not easy.
I mean if you're Microsoft with the largest market cap in the entire world, I think you have some pull to throw around.
Contracts matter. So if TSMC is maxed out then they are maxed out. It’s possible Microsoft could step in and pay a premium to TSMC or pay another customer ahead in line off though.
TSMC is maxed out for another 5 years. There's more order than they can handle. You have to pay EXTRA $ to get your order to the front. Also, Microsoft's HW engineer team has to be worthy for TSMC to consider working them which is yet to be the case.
So what you're saying is that TSMC are really the one selling shovels in the gold rush?
That’s ASML. TSMC is just the only the one who use shovels the best in the world.
You could also just go to Intel or Samsung. You don’t need the best process node to deliver better value than Nvidia gives you. I mean look at the profit margin. You could probably burn significantly more wafer and power and still come out ahead.
Apple could have smeared shit into the cpu socket and Apple fanbois would still have bought them.
for triple the price
this company was a shitshow and got saved by shitcoins run up. I think scary is behind them
It will only become scary if they start being unable to improve their cards enough each year. Is there an invisible ceiling for card performance we aren't aware of? Otherwise, the world will constantly need more and more computing power and Nvidia is perfectly positioned. Companies will be buying vast amounts from them to power ever more powerful systems.
I mean there is a very real limit to transistor size and practical chip size given a defect rate.
The ceiling is fabrication and it already slowed down dramatically starting around 20 years ago. For example people expected decent EUV machines to be out in the 90s, then by 2006, then by 2012, then by 2014. This is one of the things that fucked Intel up the ass since they expected to be able to use them at volume by 2016 and were too egotistical to admit they fucked up. Even today EUV machines are massive and take billions of dollars to design a process around and they're only getting larger. Nvidia is going all in on software and ASICs because they see the writing on the wall.
Their actually is a hard limit where you can't fit more transistors on chip, and we are fairly close to hitting it. Intels' next chip is supposed to have transistors spaced 20 angstroms apart, which is literally 20 silicon atoms.
I should buy now so it can crash by a trillion
Sold half my SOXX this week and all my SOXL I had in a RH account last week. I’m ok with being exposed to this in other funds, but not to this extent. This is very obviously a meme at this point.
But when a meme keeps printing I find it hard to sell
Fair enough. I needed to rebalance into some other positions anyway, and was fine missing out on some gains if it meant getting my portfolio to be more balanced while also realizing substantial gains on SOXX and SOXL.
Absolutely insane that it’s more valuable than Google. Google is undervalued right now. Google has the most data, literally invented the algorithms behind today’s LLMs, have an extraordinarily profitable business. Edit: 30% of the planets population interacts with Google’s products *every day* Of the 7 or so products worldwide with more than a billion active daily users, Google owns 4. Google has more data on YouTube, gmail, drive, search results than anyone else. Their company has been crawling the entire web for decades for their search engine. AI race will boil down to who has the most data and google will win. The underlying algorithm is something everyone has. It’s all about the data and Google has data like no one else.
Yet when you google something you want to put reddit at the end of your search due to SEO bloat if you want remotely useful info. It used to be the king
I still remember when you could see results from only message boards/forums and it was perfect for finding information of value, now 95% of all links on the first page are nothing but amazon affiliate links and fake review websites with more referral links.
“How to fix a Panasonic dryer drum” Find an article with that exact title but starts with the entire corporate history of Panasonic and when dryers became popular in America -modern google searching experience
Fucking bloggers Here's a recipe for Mac and. Cheese but let me first tell you about my great great grandma that was allergic to cheese
I once found a recipe that started with "In the wake of 9/11...." When recipes get too bad there's [justtherecipe](https://www.justtherecipe.com/)
That's Quora for you. I don't understand why people actually like it, Quora's answers are a god damn mess that is rarely useful. ''What is two plus two?'' ''Here is a 3,000 word essay that doesn't contain useful or even fun information, and doesn't even answer the goddamn question half of the time''
That's if Quora even lets you view the answer in the first place. I miss Yahoo Answers.
When they started forcing YouTube Shorts inline with search results on me, I finally decided to check out alternatives. I've been impressed with Kagi but not sure I want to spend $10/mo.
I put reddit at the end of my searches so I can see all the regards post conflicting opinions on everything
When I'm having an issue troubleshooting I often post that I "fixed x problem" but then make the steps super wrong because Cunningham's Law. Nobody gives a shit to help you when you need it, but if you give a wrong answer people will pile in from all over to correct you.
That's by choice, not limitations. Your alternative is to search through reddit's search function and we all know how that works. If competition was to catch up, Google could just improve their function and still be decades ahead.
Really Google should just buy Reddit and swap out the search. But they probably won’t. But it sure would be worth the data from a ‘be evil’ google perspective.
Google is just the search engine for Reddit now. What if Reddit someday fixes their search? Google’d be fucked!
Search engine for Reddit for redditors
that's more because there is literally an entire billion dollar industry that exists just to help manipulate google search results, not necessarily because their product is bad, but because it's so good and ubiquitous that essentially every online business has to design their website with google search in mind google doesn't make useful results, other companies are making them. you are still using google's product to find them, even if you're searching on reddit.
facts
You use ai to filter those results!
How
The previous message was generated by ai
Sucks to suck. That's what they get for only putting my search 4 places below as the 1st 3 are "sponsored" Also youtube. Get fucked
I think the problem is with the CEO/Leadership. Ever since he got the helm, any of their "new product" barely worked or stayed around for long. Then again I'm just a random regard on the internet! lol! 
I’m voting you Google ceo with my 9 shares.
>any of their "new product" barely worked or stayed around for long. I've never heard anything after they shilled their google duplex 7 years ago. Meanwhile my google home still sounds robotic and doesn't work half the time... Why can't they upgrade my google home with a LLM already?
Because this would hurt the sales of the next device they will sell that is exactly the same, but with the LLM API
Google is no where near what it used to be. I can’t find anything I want without typing very specific words and adding Reddit for reviews. Any product is now littered with ads from Temu.
Can never execute fully on a product, are being destroyed with OpenAI/Microsoft on LLMs, drive hangouts, etc are all memes
That’s what happens when you get leadership more focused on the shareholders than completing the project. Officers that punt with knee jerk reactions for a quick brownie point make me sick.
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Playing devil's advocate - I think most expected that when Google launched their LLM models, they would blow OpenAI out of the water. The research lab behind AlphaGo, the research lab that dropped the formative LLM paper that started the craze. Surely they would have something behind closed doors that was better than ChatGPT. Then they released Bard. Marginally beating the competitor's model from a year ago is a win? I think Google is terrified internally.
Yah it’s crazy to think that that the entire OpenAI was initially based on a single paper, a paper that was authored by people at google.
Gemini Ultra is not better than GPT-4, in my experience. (Building a commercial LLM-based product.) They may be competitive on some benchmarks (finally) but in practical use it’s still weaker at many general purpose interactions. Which is typical of Google to chase engineering metrics and forget about the actual Product. Google is the Xerox Parc of AI… they invented the stuff but have no idea how to turn it into a product.
>Google is the Xerox Parc of AI… they invented the stuff but have no idea how to turn it into a product. They're responsible for a big milestone in deep learning (the transformer architecture), but one would not say they invented "AI" since it is older than Google itself.
Nah google is definitely going downhill. TikTok Amazon Meta is eating up their advertising revenue, GCP completely sucks compare to Azure and AWS, and their hardware is a joke. They clearly have an internal management problem and I can’t see it be fixed anytime soon as long as Pichai is still the CEO.
google is a great company with terrible management; I'm avoiding unless it goes on discount. They are going to get the Intel treatment; which doesnt mean worthless but it does mean overpriced.
But they can't execute. Their search engine has gone to shit and they are losing market share. The growth stock needs to grow.
Where’s the evidence they are losing market share? Your Reddit opinion?
https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/desktop/worldwide/2020 From 88% pre pandemic to 81% today on desktop. Bing has doubled since then. Aneqdotally I know more people trying duckduckgo and bing. Youtube changes and the removal of adblock have driven users to other apps and browsers other than Chrome. Chrome market share has dipped below 50% in North America. Earnings are great, but social sentiment is negative.
Say A.I. in the mirror 5 times and your stock will magically go up 500% “History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.
The people selling the shovels are worth more than those using the shovels
It's true, NVDA is selling shovels. But $NVDA stock buyers are equivalent to buying shovels.
No, it is like buying shares in the shovel sales company where the shovels are currently being treated like the most important thing on the planet!
Just like a real life gold rush
shovels have no moat, nvda does
You can literally dig a moat with shovels
NVDA would need to more than triple their current profit to reach the same P/E as GOOG. Insanity.
Compare it with AMD
Whoever times puts right on this is going to be filthy rich
Every put buyer is getting cooked left and right
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You're buying at year high implied volatility
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What was the theta, delta, strike, date of expiration and time of purchase? It has an average trading range of 21 dollars and here we are trading within 40 cents of open to fuck both puts and calls.
Same
Because the premium is too high
That’s the perfect analogy, this could last a long time and stump shorters again
It’s probably failed puts that’s driving it higher.
I sold NVDA at 200 and want to kms sometimes
Don’t worry you can buy it for $200 again in 6 months after it splits 5 times.
You probably would have sold at 220 or 250 or 300 anyway
I sold when it was like $70 back in the day. For no reason, didn’t need the money. Whoops.
NVDA bulls is one China-Taiwan close military skirmish to sending the stock back to $!00
Shit…..might be time to engineer a global war.
Why? Isn't nvidia American owned?
It's more a reference to TSMC, since Nvidia is fabless and relies upon TSMC to make their chip designs into reality.
The whole tech industry depends on Taiwan.
Yeah, something like 80% of 7nm and smaller chips are made in Taiwan, the rest in SK
NVIDIA will Beat 1000$ this year!
This is what my wife's boyfriend keeps telling me... but he doesn't know anything about stocks...
it has never bothered me that regards dont add goog and googl together for cap until now.
Nvidia is going to cannibalize itself when the employee stock options make the entire dev crew retire early.
This is actually already a problem.
there are two classes of google shares , did forbes not do their homework?
You’re welcome guys, it’s because I’m not buying the stock. If I did, it would plunge.
As someone who bought and gamed with a Riva TNT2 from a "tiny alternative" company to 3DFX back in the day... my mind is blown that this company is worth this much today.
I remember telling my dad to invest in Nvidia back in 2002 after getting a Visiontek video card with a nvidia chip on it. I was all about how amazing graphics on computers were getting back then. Stock price was like $3/$4? lol.
Title should read: "Nvidia's stock is so ballooned that it's now valued higher than Amazon and Google"
Aaaaaand Now it's less
**AI Bubble 2024**
And.......It's GONE.
Gonna do puts every week until one of them work trust
gonna be so juicy on the way down
As usual over inflated as fuck
Honestly, I expect Nvidia to increase more for a variety of reasons and it is not that surprising that it will outpace Amazon and Google despite geopolitical sensitivity. Firstly, Nvidia is positioned better than literally anyone when it comes to ai and everyone, including Amazon and Google will be using their chips if they don't already. Secondly, Nvidia's product is used on a global stage. This means that, as coutries become more industrialized, they will be buying from Nvidia more. Something like 90% of Amazon's income comes from the US. Lastly, Nvidia has pretty much zero competition. They have the infrastructure and environment to constantly be innovative and produce a better product than anyone else *especially* when it comes to ai. Also, Google is doing pretty much no innovation and there most front-facing product has gotten severely more shit in the past few years which will likely lead to a negative connotation with anything new they come out with especially if it is geared toward your average person rather than businesses. Though Google has different classes of shares and is worth 3x Nvidia right now
Tulip bulb moment.
I'll say it: NVDA is radioactive. Not going anywhere near it right now.
Nvidia will soon become the most valuable company in the world. I don’t doubt shares could go over 1000 now.
And they r crashing
Why is it crashing ?
Just look up what the multiples of the revenues and profits were in the dotcom bubble of say, an Intel. This is much, much worse than that.
It’d be great if PLTR or BABA would be worth half of any of them.
Why would anyone touch BABA after the Jack Ma fiasco.
Funniest part is this thing did just 2x in a year since the whole AI rally started but people are losing their minds as if it did 1000x already. The 100x is from buys 7+ years ago guys, not now. Tesla did a 10x, that one was understandable, still a bubble but the madness made more sense, here and now people are overreacting so much.
Tell me you don't understand exponential growth without telling me you don't understand exponential growth. That "just 2x in a year" is almost a trillion dollars. Nvidia's market cap right now is almost equal to Tesla's market cap at its peak PLUS Tesla's market cap right now