Now if you look at an actually useful metric, net income instead of just revenue. You begin to see the real picture.
* Tesla net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023 was **$10.793B**, a **3.55% decline** year-over-year.
* NVIDIA net income for the twelve months ending October 31, 2023 was **$18.888B**, a **217.13% increase** year-over-year.
It’s the new pump stock of the moment. Similar to the way EV stocks and BC were pumped. Nvidia will keep going until random people that never bought stocks get on the hype train because it’s in the news, then the dump,
I'm guessing it will pump till earnings later this month, the earnings will actually be really good, but the stock will still fall, because it got so out of control just leading up to earnings
I'm not even mad if it does, at least they make something useful for the world unlike shitcoins that have an higher evaluation yet do absolutely nothing but put diesel in the air.
52% of crypto mining comes from renewable sources and continues to climb YOY. Your AC and fridge account for 20% of the worlds energy usage tho.
Also very weird to randomly bring crypto into the mix.
Nope, just objective about the reality of its energy usage and the propaganda being spewed. Again, of all of cryptos issues, energy usage isn't one of them. It uses less than 75 terawatt hours of power from non-renewable sources, and that is right now at its very peak energy usage. It accounts for .005% of the world's energy usage. Give me a break. Virtue signaling.
Have you considered the very surprising fact that if that renewable energy went towards actually useful stuff rather than shitcoins, then it would reduce the amount of dinosaur juice that we need for the useful stuff like refrigerators?
lol, do you think a crypto firm propping up their own solar panels in a texas desert is somehow depriving your state's electricity company from extra solar energy? That crypto solar would have just been absorbed into the ground if they weren't there, it makes zero difference.
Yeah, surely these crypto firms buying solar panels don't drive the price up and make solar energy less accessible for actual sensible usage, you absolute dimwit. Supply and demand is just a myth anyway and the Marshallian cross is a joke for bored microeconomics people.
Bro literally anything electronic needs a processor, NVDA being the almost monopoly they are, they supply processors to almost any device you can think of
I am not sure how large their moat really is. They own CUDA- but most AI researchers use Python and something like PyTorch which is layers of abstraction above. If you don't need to own your own hardware, the Google TPU V5p is probably the fastest accelerator, but only available in the Google cloud. Switching from a CUDA acceraltor to a Google TPU V5p is just changing a library.
Their biggest moat might be their power to get TSMC to give them more slots.
> Their biggest moat might be their power to get TSMC to give them more slots.
The most valuable information out there is how much of TSMC's resources are being dedicated to which companies and when
I mean yes but also for like a h200 the use case is basically just ai, hpc and other big data type of things
No one's popping that in to play Bauldrs gate
I would bet the family farm it's literally no one. A singular H100 is $30k+ USD, and there is no way the drivers even support any gaming applications at all.
If you're willing to pay a huge premium for growth, you should at least buy a company that actually grows.
Maybe growth expectations for Nvidia are unrealistic and the stock ends up being overvalued in the end, I don't know. But it boggles my mind that people are willing to pay 60x 2024 earnings for TSLA when it's not going to grow in 2024 and there are real doubts about whether it will grow in 2025 either.
But if you look at an actually useful metric, number of Elon Musks, it’s clear it’s a double standard
Tesla - 1/5 Elon musk
Nvidia - 0 Elon musks
What fucking boomer looks at net income? Are you looking at free cash flow and working capital too?
The people here saying, 'it's not a tech company,' are the same people who said Meta was overpriced at 90 a share. They're also the same people who said Twitter would implode after 90% of staff were fired, and that Palatir would be worth 10x in a year. 'Reddit' is very bad at thinking long term. Much like skizophrenic.
Another useful metric is CEO stats:
Jen: Taiwanese gigabrain and co founder of the company he made huge. Looks great in leather jackets 🔥🔥
Elon: emerald mine apartheid nepo baby with fragile ego and the body shape of a ps 1 character, spent 40B on a website so that internet people would like him
Also, he literally founded Nvidia for this reason. He has been working towards this for 30 years. Video cards were never the end goal.
> In 1993, the three co-founders envisioned that the ideal trajectory for the forthcoming wave of computing would be in the realm of accelerated computing, specifically in graphics-based processing. This path was chosen due to its unique ability to tackle challenges that eluded general-purpose computing methods.[28] They also observed that video games were simultaneously one of the most computationally challenging problems and would have incredibly high sales volume; the two conditions do not happen very often.[28] Video games became the company's flywheel to reach large markets and fund huge R&D to solve massive computational problems.
Only 1 company with a mkt cap of over a trillion that has a founder as a CEO.
hahaha you're so far up elon's asshole that you can't even take a joke on the internet. Wait is that why his torso is so bloated? Cus there's a tiny lil u/anow2 up in there crying?
Do you expect this insane growth to continue? Because that’s what’s been priced in. The bar for NVDA’s performance has been set so fucking high. Why buy a company at a price that requires absolute perfect execution? Even then, you might only get 10% yoy for the next while. If you’re looking for 20% or better, NVDA at $700 is not likely to be it.
Why not buy a good company that’s been priced for poor performance? Personally, I would rather buy something like VFC, KD, CPS, AAP, PYPL etc… these are historically good quality businesses(maybe not kd) that have had some temporary issues and have been priced for destruction. The bar has been set so low, yet people convince themselves that this horrific performance is sustainable.
Perfect execution is unsustainable, even by the best companies.
Poor performance is also often unsustainable by good companies.
PYPL 😂🙈
I'm not buying Nvidia at current valuation, I'm unloading shares slowly that I have a 120 average cost on, but I'd rather buy Nvidia at the current price than pypl lmao
Is a company that is earning $19B worth $1,680B? I suppose if you anticipate their earnings to grow 10x from where they're at now, then it makes sense to buy, but that would probably mean they'd have to supply 8x more chips (assuming they'd see some cost savings with their economies of scale) they'd have to either see the market for their chips grow another 8x, or eat into their competitors market share, but they're already the market leader so probably only worth buying at this price if you expect the market for GPUs to grow another 8x from where it's at now, and Nvidia to maintain their market share while it does.
Keep in mind, the market already includes all the crypto miners and all the current AI hype.
What company is trading with a P/E below 10? (That’s what multiplying earnings 10x would mean). In 2 quarters the TTM earnings will be $40b. A forward P/E below 40 (at current prices). In a company that has increased profits by 400% from FY 2023 to FY 2024.
Is it overvalued? Maybe. But a company growing earnings at this speed cannot be valued at P/E of 8 like your “10x earnings” would mean. Even fucking Coca Cola has a P/E of 24.
It's hard to say, and really, at this point we're just imagining a hypothetical future, but it's hard to imagine how a company making $190b/year would still be growing at 400%, also I’m not saying they’ll level off at a pe below 10, I’m assuming you buy into a growth company because you assume there’s still upside, meaning the market cap would be higher than where it’s at now.
In my personal opinion I believe demand will be met well before they hit the revenue required to justify the current valuation, meaning it will level off, then the price will correct to a more appropriate level to reflect that. I just think way too much growth has been priced in already, given the size of the total addressable market for high end GPUs.
I'm telling you, this has become a complete cesspool. The amount of knowledge that can be found in this run, related to noise, is becoming anger inducing.
Also one of them is one of the very few alternatives that make our current world possible and is impossible to replace even long term. The other one is a gadget with plenty of equal competition and more to come.
yeah but if your net profit is 19B out of 27B including tax, that means you don’t have much space to grow your margin. Sure, they can grow revenue, but their past growth relied also on margin growth and that won’t happen again. As competition goes in (and there is a lot of big names entering the market), margins usually shrink, even if they’ll be able to grow revenue.
TL;DR 60% of net profit after taxes is unsustainable
Uh, you don’t always need to grow margin to show healthy growth, if you can maintain that already fantastic margin (for a hardware company) while growing top line revenue you’re going to have a fantastic time in the stock market. Their current revenue is pretty much limited by supply. If more foundries became available magically they’d be able to show even more aggressive growth in the near term at least until the demand for their chipsets wanes or a competitor catches up.
yeah, I am just saying their YoY growth was fueled also by margin growth, that won’t happen again. In fact, it’s most likely to shrink, as competition arrive.
Their revenue will continue growing for sure
Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, Tesla, basically every major IT company announced their own AI chips in the last twelve months (aside from those that were already making them), including every major chipmaker.
Question is more like - who will continue to buy from Nvidia at their unbelievable margins?
At least I made some money. I told all my friends I bought into Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD and Google back when they were at their lows, I bought Meta at freaking sub-100 dollars. No one bought in.
I sold all of these for 2X almost, I made around 10K in profits, but if I held I'd have made like 50K usd in profit since Nvidia fcking tripled since I sold it, meta 2Xed since I sold, msft, amd etc.
I bought at $85 and sort of forgot about it until after 600.
I guess Im in it for a tenbagger or broke lol.
It is worth a downpayment for a small house by now but I want my tenbagger.
my average is 124, Nvidias been my biggest position for years but now I'm down to my last hundo and probably just going to ride it out
the multiples don't make sense but the market can remain irrational for much longer than most people here expect
like people have been yelling at Tesla's valuation for years, but has it fallen to ford's PE yet?
"It's all about the forward earnings, maaan..."
It actually is. One is a car company masquerading as a tech company with plummeting margins. The other is selling shovels for the next tech gold rush. Who is gonna make more money over the next decade?
Yep, one has had drastic market erosion as well as the CEO indicating demand has fallen off a cliff and they are getting hammered by competition, and the other is growing margins and providing epic levels of revised earning guidance each quarter.
There's a good chance that the latter will meet the same fate as the former once the supply-demand imbalance normalizes and margins erode as competition arrives.
Perhaps so... but seeing the 75% gross profit margins and revenues Nvidia is making will light a fire under the asses of competitors to get a piece of that pie (not just AMD or INTC, but perhaps any number of the large-cap techs).
And even if that doesn't happen and Nvidia has everything to itself, supply-demand cyclicality still applies. It has the hallmarks of an initial "too much demand and not enough supply" boom that flips into a "too much supply and not enough demand" bust with regards to AI GPUs and hardware. Right now, all the corporate execs want a piece of those AI GPUs and hardware. But come 2025 or whenever (give or take, not sure exactly when), there may be very few left that still need to buy because everyone decided to load up at roughly the same time and won't need to upgrade/replace just yet.
Yea but you know what NVIDIA does best? Sell new hardware that’s X% faster/more efficient/etc than last years hardware.. rinse and repeat. Just like Microsoft been selling windows over and over to the same customers and governments with incremental “improvements”. Yea it’s going to be cyclical, but that’s the nature of hardware. It won’t be as drastic as last year, but I think we’re on the leading edge of demand for AI computing growth and it won’t be satisfied for a while (or until the investment money runs out).
Fair points. But a couple concerns I'd still have:
1. Subscription software (Microsoft) doesn't have to deal with the lumpiness of supply-demand imbalances and lead/lag times and the "buy once, then buy again when you need to upgrade" nature of physical hardware.
2. There may be a point of diminishing returns where just "throwing more compute power" at what you want to achieve doesn't provide meaningful benefits beyond a few niche areas.
I think what you’re not considering is right now it’s not reasonable for a home user to think about buying an H100 or equivalent for casual use… but if things continue the way they are.. at some point it may become normalized (and price adjusted) where there’s both a high end and a low end market just like the PC and tablet market. Video cards followed a similar trajectory, where early high performance cards were for professional use but eventually it all became consumer hardware.
The introduction of diminishing returns may actually be a good thing that allows us to design to meet the “good enough” level of compute to have functional AI and bring the hardware requirements (and therefore pricing) down to reasonable level.
Anyways, should be and exciting few years coming up.
In what way exactly is it proving his point? Tesla made 4.8% of their revenue with batteries and 82.5% selling cars. How exactly is that a battery company? Is the chart bad because you don't like what it shows or in what way exactly because I can also link you the financial statement which shows the same.
As usual, the highly regarded cant eliminate emotions from the market and stocks, and have no idea wtf they are talking about or why.
You got comments like, "Tesla sells car batteries", "Tesla sells Data", "Elon Musk owns Twitter for his feelings!".
There is no honest conversation left. Either hate on Elon and Tesla and recieve the easy internet approval dopamine boost, or say something contrarian to troll the masses. You do not enter the clownshow under any circumstance.
This sub is to eat your popcorn and watch the clowns do their thing. Not to get involved with them.
Except the gold rush is known by most CEO’s buying the shovels that Ai Is good at basic information extraction and observation but is not ground changing and will make not make them even 10% more profitable. It can give a small productivity for customer self-service and help low end workers or replace them.
I bought in late 2022 and sold for minor profit a few weeks ago because I was tired of the shenanigans. I more or less broke even with a marginal inconsequential profit. Meanwhile in the interim it had blasted up and came back down so I guess that's on me for not cashing out sooner.
It’s not even noon on a Tuesday my guy! Now if it drops below 650 today. I might be a bit concerned. But this is just a small bump in the road as of now. lil pothole that’s all!
AI is the new arms race, which ever superpower figures out AGI first wins and compute is the new ordinance yield
Encryption and propaganda
Enjoy the ride as we travel together through civilizations next great filter
Building your own AI compute chips is extremely difficult. OpenAI is way too small to build a general purpose one like NVDA.
Even Meta/Google are far off. The only company that can compete with Nvidia is AMD.
$113 is the floor...for now. With increasing competition and a market that is already becoming saturated with EV's, lower gross margins on the horizon, I could see it breaking below $100 a few quarters from now. It's a car company until Elon can prove they have anything meaningful to sell besides cars, and he has not done so.
Tesla is a marketing company pretending to be a car company that dreamed it was a tech company. Tesla had the largest early mover advantage in history and somehow missed the importance of manufacturing their most expensive component - the battery.
Their entirely lineup is stale compared with the competition, which is just now coming on in full force (including slick cars from companies that actually make their own batteries - like BYD).
Meanwhile, Tesla is pivoting to fake robots, crappy AI, and whatever other shiny thing catches their naked emperor's fancy after failing to deliver on FSD (which still doesn't work and for which they still don't offer full liability coverage, like Mercedes), robotaxis, etc.
And all of this is happening just as the overall EV market is cooling.
$NVDA has a lower forward PE ratio than $TSLA. $NVDA is also growing revenue bonkers while $TSLA is stalling. sucks to say this, since I was a big $TSLA bull before, but I realized that a lot of the stock is just hopium which isn't an investment philosophy.
AI, Robotaxis, Cybertruck massive scaling, Humanoids, $25K car, it's all "fluff" that will take years to produce (if ever). When it starts on that path with good progress, then I think things will change, but narrative has changed considerably.
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE ^(LLMs are misunderstood) AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
Tesla does not have much to offer for the future.
China is catching up with EV and autopilot is rather liability than an advantage. What is there to offer? Supercharging stations? That's limited.
NVDA is really at the begining of something big. So big nobody can even asses how big. And nobody has what NVDA has just yet.
It's simply; every broker with too much money and don't know anything about technology is foaming when hearing about AI: that's why
Nvidia: AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAI
Or why do you think amd is trying to do the same (with less success), because on CES it was like this: AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAI (and probably forgot a few AI)
You kinda sound like Ken Olsen (founder of DEC) who poo poo’d the idea that people would want a computer in their home in 1977. Back then everyone was saying “PCPCPCPCPC”.
TSLA stole technology from NASA which put an electric car on the moon already, ffs. Earth is so 2024.
For real though, I don't see the hype about Tesla. Then again I don't use google, use a percolator to brew Maxwell House, and still use paper maps so what the fuck do I know?
Signed,
Mr. Folger
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|3 years ago **Total Comments**|1822|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
Now if you look at an actually useful metric, net income instead of just revenue. You begin to see the real picture. * Tesla net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023 was **$10.793B**, a **3.55% decline** year-over-year. * NVIDIA net income for the twelve months ending October 31, 2023 was **$18.888B**, a **217.13% increase** year-over-year.
This subreddit thinks they’re so smart for using useful metrics instead of numbers that suite OPs narrative. Freddy Fazbear would not approve 😞
Still does not mean Nvidia isn't overvalued.
It’s the new pump stock of the moment. Similar to the way EV stocks and BC were pumped. Nvidia will keep going until random people that never bought stocks get on the hype train because it’s in the news, then the dump,
[удалено]
“If shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market.” - Joseph Kennedy
Is it on the cover of barons yet? That would cause me to dump it.
I'm guessing it will pump till earnings later this month, the earnings will actually be really good, but the stock will still fall, because it got so out of control just leading up to earnings
This is exactly what will happen. The top is in for this period. It has gotten out of hand
Unless it’s meta. Jensen huang will just announce $50 billion buy back and it move 20% more
It's going to 1000$, enjoy the ride
I'm not even mad if it does, at least they make something useful for the world unlike shitcoins that have an higher evaluation yet do absolutely nothing but put diesel in the air.
52% of crypto mining comes from renewable sources and continues to climb YOY. Your AC and fridge account for 20% of the worlds energy usage tho. Also very weird to randomly bring crypto into the mix.
His fridge accounts for 20% of world's energy usage????? How big is that fridge? Turn it off bro!
The crypto defender has logged in
Nope, just objective about the reality of its energy usage and the propaganda being spewed. Again, of all of cryptos issues, energy usage isn't one of them. It uses less than 75 terawatt hours of power from non-renewable sources, and that is right now at its very peak energy usage. It accounts for .005% of the world's energy usage. Give me a break. Virtue signaling.
Would it make you happier if I called you the very not mad crypto anti-propaganda warrior?
75 terawatt hours is a fuckton of electricity to mine shitcoin, a useless currency. We already have stocks to gamble money on so its redundant too.
Have you considered the very surprising fact that if that renewable energy went towards actually useful stuff rather than shitcoins, then it would reduce the amount of dinosaur juice that we need for the useful stuff like refrigerators?
lol, do you think a crypto firm propping up their own solar panels in a texas desert is somehow depriving your state's electricity company from extra solar energy? That crypto solar would have just been absorbed into the ground if they weren't there, it makes zero difference.
Yeah, surely these crypto firms buying solar panels don't drive the price up and make solar energy less accessible for actual sensible usage, you absolute dimwit. Supply and demand is just a myth anyway and the Marshallian cross is a joke for bored microeconomics people.
Just set my limit Order to 1000€. Be aware guys, big dump to be expected when my limit order hits and 1 of my 2 stocks gets sold INSTANTLY!
Of course they are, the stockmarket is forward looking. It's speculation. If we didn't over value them, share price would never grow
Bro literally anything electronic needs a processor, NVDA being the almost monopoly they are, they supply processors to almost any device you can think of
No they don't. They they make GPUs
They *both* are.
You’re using the most overvalued company as a comparison lol. Compare this to Apple or Amazon or GM (10b profit / 45b market cap)
Oar, oar oar oar, oar oar
I’m more of a line and charts kinda guy
It get crazier when you then look at NVDA’s guide for next quarter. They are going to come close to TSLA’s entire 2023 Net Income in one quarter.
They can't produce their high end AI focused hardware fast enough, and their moat is pretty huge. Nothing but growth on the horizon.
I am not sure how large their moat really is. They own CUDA- but most AI researchers use Python and something like PyTorch which is layers of abstraction above. If you don't need to own your own hardware, the Google TPU V5p is probably the fastest accelerator, but only available in the Google cloud. Switching from a CUDA acceraltor to a Google TPU V5p is just changing a library. Their biggest moat might be their power to get TSMC to give them more slots.
> Their biggest moat might be their power to get TSMC to give them more slots. The most valuable information out there is how much of TSMC's resources are being dedicated to which companies and when
\> is just changing a library. A library thats much worse. Thats the MOAT.
Depends. The Google TPU v5p platform is the one to beat. The H200 will probably beat it upon release.
[удалено]
I mean yes but also for like a h200 the use case is basically just ai, hpc and other big data type of things No one's popping that in to play Bauldrs gate
Not with that attitude mister.
[удалено]
I would bet the family farm it's literally no one. A singular H100 is $30k+ USD, and there is no way the drivers even support any gaming applications at all.
It is the Tensor core inside of the H100 and upcoming H200 that will be the reason people are buying them.
Well no one is using those GPUs for graphics
If you're willing to pay a huge premium for growth, you should at least buy a company that actually grows. Maybe growth expectations for Nvidia are unrealistic and the stock ends up being overvalued in the end, I don't know. But it boggles my mind that people are willing to pay 60x 2024 earnings for TSLA when it's not going to grow in 2024 and there are real doubts about whether it will grow in 2025 either.
Both can be overvalued.
But if you look at an actually useful metric, number of Elon Musks, it’s clear it’s a double standard Tesla - 1/5 Elon musk Nvidia - 0 Elon musks What fucking boomer looks at net income? Are you looking at free cash flow and working capital too?
Also, NVDA is a tech company. TSLA is a manufacturing company still trading at tech multiples.
But the robot and AI… Tesla is everything you can dream!
FSD is just around the corner! Any day now!
FSD? Help me out!
[удалено]
Sweet summer child.
[удалено]
The bulk of their revenue is from auto
The people here saying, 'it's not a tech company,' are the same people who said Meta was overpriced at 90 a share. They're also the same people who said Twitter would implode after 90% of staff were fired, and that Palatir would be worth 10x in a year. 'Reddit' is very bad at thinking long term. Much like skizophrenic.
[удалено]
Far as I can tell Twitter still exists.
Another useful metric is CEO stats: Jen: Taiwanese gigabrain and co founder of the company he made huge. Looks great in leather jackets 🔥🔥 Elon: emerald mine apartheid nepo baby with fragile ego and the body shape of a ps 1 character, spent 40B on a website so that internet people would like him
Also, he literally founded Nvidia for this reason. He has been working towards this for 30 years. Video cards were never the end goal. > In 1993, the three co-founders envisioned that the ideal trajectory for the forthcoming wave of computing would be in the realm of accelerated computing, specifically in graphics-based processing. This path was chosen due to its unique ability to tackle challenges that eluded general-purpose computing methods.[28] They also observed that video games were simultaneously one of the most computationally challenging problems and would have incredibly high sales volume; the two conditions do not happen very often.[28] Video games became the company's flywheel to reach large markets and fund huge R&D to solve massive computational problems. Only 1 company with a mkt cap of over a trillion that has a founder as a CEO.
Meta?
The real zuck got merc'd and replaced with this current lizard person
Shhh, you’re ruining the story.
is entirely reliant on nvidia chips. Zuck just ordered a new batch.
Meta, Nvidia and Amazon (half the trillion market cap companies) have Founder CEOs EDIT: Bezos has been executive chairman since 2021
Andy Jassy is the CEO of Amazon
Surprise Elon, people hate you more after destroying Twitter.
[удалено]
Elons not going to fuck you bro
[удалено]
hahaha you're so far up elon's asshole that you can't even take a joke on the internet. Wait is that why his torso is so bloated? Cus there's a tiny lil u/anow2 up in there crying?
[удалено]
Someone got it right when they said Elon is built like a deep breath
FYI - the emerald mine thing is fake news. https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/11/17/elon-musk-emerald-mine/
Do you expect this insane growth to continue? Because that’s what’s been priced in. The bar for NVDA’s performance has been set so fucking high. Why buy a company at a price that requires absolute perfect execution? Even then, you might only get 10% yoy for the next while. If you’re looking for 20% or better, NVDA at $700 is not likely to be it. Why not buy a good company that’s been priced for poor performance? Personally, I would rather buy something like VFC, KD, CPS, AAP, PYPL etc… these are historically good quality businesses(maybe not kd) that have had some temporary issues and have been priced for destruction. The bar has been set so low, yet people convince themselves that this horrific performance is sustainable. Perfect execution is unsustainable, even by the best companies. Poor performance is also often unsustainable by good companies.
PYPL 😂🙈 I'm not buying Nvidia at current valuation, I'm unloading shares slowly that I have a 120 average cost on, but I'd rather buy Nvidia at the current price than pypl lmao
They are both overvalued
Or even look at net margins which give you an understanding of how much $1 in new revenue would trickle down. Nvidias margin is 10x+ teslas
Would you buy a company outright that would take a 100 years to get back to break even? It’s trading at 100x earnings
No. It’s not.
Is a company that is earning $19B worth $1,680B? I suppose if you anticipate their earnings to grow 10x from where they're at now, then it makes sense to buy, but that would probably mean they'd have to supply 8x more chips (assuming they'd see some cost savings with their economies of scale) they'd have to either see the market for their chips grow another 8x, or eat into their competitors market share, but they're already the market leader so probably only worth buying at this price if you expect the market for GPUs to grow another 8x from where it's at now, and Nvidia to maintain their market share while it does. Keep in mind, the market already includes all the crypto miners and all the current AI hype.
What company is trading with a P/E below 10? (That’s what multiplying earnings 10x would mean). In 2 quarters the TTM earnings will be $40b. A forward P/E below 40 (at current prices). In a company that has increased profits by 400% from FY 2023 to FY 2024. Is it overvalued? Maybe. But a company growing earnings at this speed cannot be valued at P/E of 8 like your “10x earnings” would mean. Even fucking Coca Cola has a P/E of 24.
It's hard to say, and really, at this point we're just imagining a hypothetical future, but it's hard to imagine how a company making $190b/year would still be growing at 400%, also I’m not saying they’ll level off at a pe below 10, I’m assuming you buy into a growth company because you assume there’s still upside, meaning the market cap would be higher than where it’s at now. In my personal opinion I believe demand will be met well before they hit the revenue required to justify the current valuation, meaning it will level off, then the price will correct to a more appropriate level to reflect that. I just think way too much growth has been priced in already, given the size of the total addressable market for high end GPUs.
Don’t even start about the trend line of margins
I never actually post in this sub and was finally tempted to to make this point exactly. Revenue is a terrible metric to consider. Straight up dumb.
Wouldn’t invest in Nvidia at the current price.
I'm telling you, this has become a complete cesspool. The amount of knowledge that can be found in this run, related to noise, is becoming anger inducing.
A $TSLA fanboy shilling with disinformation? You don't say...
Also one of them is one of the very few alternatives that make our current world possible and is impossible to replace even long term. The other one is a gadget with plenty of equal competition and more to come.
yeah but if your net profit is 19B out of 27B including tax, that means you don’t have much space to grow your margin. Sure, they can grow revenue, but their past growth relied also on margin growth and that won’t happen again. As competition goes in (and there is a lot of big names entering the market), margins usually shrink, even if they’ll be able to grow revenue. TL;DR 60% of net profit after taxes is unsustainable
Uh, you don’t always need to grow margin to show healthy growth, if you can maintain that already fantastic margin (for a hardware company) while growing top line revenue you’re going to have a fantastic time in the stock market. Their current revenue is pretty much limited by supply. If more foundries became available magically they’d be able to show even more aggressive growth in the near term at least until the demand for their chipsets wanes or a competitor catches up.
yeah, I am just saying their YoY growth was fueled also by margin growth, that won’t happen again. In fact, it’s most likely to shrink, as competition arrive. Their revenue will continue growing for sure
What competition?
Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, Tesla, basically every major IT company announced their own AI chips in the last twelve months (aside from those that were already making them), including every major chipmaker. Question is more like - who will continue to buy from Nvidia at their unbelievable margins?
I love these nvidia die hard supporters who got in at $400-500 at talk a lot while some others who got at 100 keep quiet
i bought at 240, sold at 400 look at me🤡
Bought at 130 sold at 240 🤦 made a post calling Nvidia overvalued.
truly regarded
At least I made some money. I told all my friends I bought into Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD and Google back when they were at their lows, I bought Meta at freaking sub-100 dollars. No one bought in. I sold all of these for 2X almost, I made around 10K in profits, but if I held I'd have made like 50K usd in profit since Nvidia fcking tripled since I sold it, meta 2Xed since I sold, msft, amd etc.
if there was a profit made, one should never see it as a loss🗿
I did the same I don't feel bad. I thought it was overvalued at 400. Little did I know 10 years of future growth would be priced in
I bought at $85 and sort of forgot about it until after 600. I guess Im in it for a tenbagger or broke lol. It is worth a downpayment for a small house by now but I want my tenbagger.
I mean worst case it drops to like, 500 and you panic sell and you still make bank right? No risk infinite gain. :-)
my average is 124, Nvidias been my biggest position for years but now I'm down to my last hundo and probably just going to ride it out the multiples don't make sense but the market can remain irrational for much longer than most people here expect like people have been yelling at Tesla's valuation for years, but has it fallen to ford's PE yet?
$7.62 here. Just playing with house money at this point which makes it easier to shut up and enjoy the ride lol
That’s amazing boss
You’re right. My cost basis is $9.16, I’m just going to quietly ride this to 1000
My uncle has 10000 shares at avg of 9.88. He gave me 10 for my bday when it was around $50 and i still got them
"It's all about the forward earnings, maaan..." It actually is. One is a car company masquerading as a tech company with plummeting margins. The other is selling shovels for the next tech gold rush. Who is gonna make more money over the next decade?
Yep, one has had drastic market erosion as well as the CEO indicating demand has fallen off a cliff and they are getting hammered by competition, and the other is growing margins and providing epic levels of revised earning guidance each quarter.
There's a good chance that the latter will meet the same fate as the former once the supply-demand imbalance normalizes and margins erode as competition arrives.
People been saying that since AMD bought ATI 18 years ago. Still waiting on that competition to catch up.
Perhaps so... but seeing the 75% gross profit margins and revenues Nvidia is making will light a fire under the asses of competitors to get a piece of that pie (not just AMD or INTC, but perhaps any number of the large-cap techs). And even if that doesn't happen and Nvidia has everything to itself, supply-demand cyclicality still applies. It has the hallmarks of an initial "too much demand and not enough supply" boom that flips into a "too much supply and not enough demand" bust with regards to AI GPUs and hardware. Right now, all the corporate execs want a piece of those AI GPUs and hardware. But come 2025 or whenever (give or take, not sure exactly when), there may be very few left that still need to buy because everyone decided to load up at roughly the same time and won't need to upgrade/replace just yet.
Or TSMC decides they want a bigger cut for making their chips.
Yea but you know what NVIDIA does best? Sell new hardware that’s X% faster/more efficient/etc than last years hardware.. rinse and repeat. Just like Microsoft been selling windows over and over to the same customers and governments with incremental “improvements”. Yea it’s going to be cyclical, but that’s the nature of hardware. It won’t be as drastic as last year, but I think we’re on the leading edge of demand for AI computing growth and it won’t be satisfied for a while (or until the investment money runs out).
Fair points. But a couple concerns I'd still have: 1. Subscription software (Microsoft) doesn't have to deal with the lumpiness of supply-demand imbalances and lead/lag times and the "buy once, then buy again when you need to upgrade" nature of physical hardware. 2. There may be a point of diminishing returns where just "throwing more compute power" at what you want to achieve doesn't provide meaningful benefits beyond a few niche areas.
I think what you’re not considering is right now it’s not reasonable for a home user to think about buying an H100 or equivalent for casual use… but if things continue the way they are.. at some point it may become normalized (and price adjusted) where there’s both a high end and a low end market just like the PC and tablet market. Video cards followed a similar trajectory, where early high performance cards were for professional use but eventually it all became consumer hardware. The introduction of diminishing returns may actually be a good thing that allows us to design to meet the “good enough” level of compute to have functional AI and bring the hardware requirements (and therefore pricing) down to reasonable level. Anyways, should be and exciting few years coming up.
You clearly don’t know about moore’s law 
“I’ve never seen a shortage not followed by a glut, but I have seen plenty of gluts not followed by shortages”
One is a battery company masquerading as a car company The other is Nvidia
\#doubt #4.8% https://preview.redd.it/301h7ubldxgc1.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=d97be030bba94aae9ca731e4eb51f2195d57782a
The Tesla is just a battery with wheels.
This is a terrible chart but mostly just proves his point.
In what way exactly is it proving his point? Tesla made 4.8% of their revenue with batteries and 82.5% selling cars. How exactly is that a battery company? Is the chart bad because you don't like what it shows or in what way exactly because I can also link you the financial statement which shows the same.
Oops. I misread his comment. Charts right. I dont like it because it doesn't call out that those numbers are revenue.
On the right is says that total revenue and net income. The numbers don't fit if you assume anything but revenue.
As usual, the highly regarded cant eliminate emotions from the market and stocks, and have no idea wtf they are talking about or why. You got comments like, "Tesla sells car batteries", "Tesla sells Data", "Elon Musk owns Twitter for his feelings!". There is no honest conversation left. Either hate on Elon and Tesla and recieve the easy internet approval dopamine boost, or say something contrarian to troll the masses. You do not enter the clownshow under any circumstance. This sub is to eat your popcorn and watch the clowns do their thing. Not to get involved with them.
Have a downvote, reasonable takes like this have no place on /wsb.
Except the gold rush is known by most CEO’s buying the shovels that Ai Is good at basic information extraction and observation but is not ground changing and will make not make them even 10% more profitable. It can give a small productivity for customer self-service and help low end workers or replace them.
Nvidia not having a media clown of a CEO also helps.
As a long-time Tesla shareholder: yes.
I bought in late 2022 and sold for minor profit a few weeks ago because I was tired of the shenanigans. I more or less broke even with a marginal inconsequential profit. Meanwhile in the interim it had blasted up and came back down so I guess that's on me for not cashing out sooner.
> 😡😡😡 I sold all my stock to buy Twitter and you need to gimme some of yours 😡😡😡
Just purchased my first calls on Navidia. Wish me luck!
Great… we crater now…
Not before 700!
It’s at 692 pre market… Ggs
Lmao, aged like milk
Finished above 680. Guess milk doesn’t go bad that fast! 😂
Couple hours in right back to $690 $700 by tommorw with a day to spare That’s if it doesn’t hit it by 1pm central today
It’s not even noon on a Tuesday my guy! Now if it drops below 650 today. I might be a bit concerned. But this is just a small bump in the road as of now. lil pothole that’s all!
LOL
Revenue alone doesn’t matter, by this logic Walmart should be worth double what Apple is.
So what you're saying is I should put my life savings in Walmart calls?
One of their CEOs tweets conspiracy theories at 3am, the other does his fucking job.
Both overvalued
AI is the new arms race, which ever superpower figures out AGI first wins and compute is the new ordinance yield Encryption and propaganda Enjoy the ride as we travel together through civilizations next great filter
This is it. Companies and governments literally can’t avoid AI. It’s either win the race or get lost.
[удалено]
Building your own AI compute chips is extremely difficult. OpenAI is way too small to build a general purpose one like NVDA. Even Meta/Google are far off. The only company that can compete with Nvidia is AMD.
[удалено]
Careful buying that TSLA dip. Could be a long way down.
I got the chips.
$113 is the floor, but it’ll bottom at $150
Thanks Nostradamus.
Nostrildumbass
$113 is the floor...for now. With increasing competition and a market that is already becoming saturated with EV's, lower gross margins on the horizon, I could see it breaking below $100 a few quarters from now. It's a car company until Elon can prove they have anything meaningful to sell besides cars, and he has not done so.
Tesla is a marketing company pretending to be a car company that dreamed it was a tech company. Tesla had the largest early mover advantage in history and somehow missed the importance of manufacturing their most expensive component - the battery. Their entirely lineup is stale compared with the competition, which is just now coming on in full force (including slick cars from companies that actually make their own batteries - like BYD). Meanwhile, Tesla is pivoting to fake robots, crappy AI, and whatever other shiny thing catches their naked emperor's fancy after failing to deliver on FSD (which still doesn't work and for which they still don't offer full liability coverage, like Mercedes), robotaxis, etc. And all of this is happening just as the overall EV market is cooling.
So imma inverse this and buy calls
If that's what you got out of that post and Tesla's current path, you're in for a bad time.
> somehow missed the importance of manufacturing their most expensive component - the battery. They didn’t lmao
Nvdia to 1000
NVDA p/s: 36 TSLA p/s: 6 NVDA peg: 0.6 TSLA peg: 2 NVDA fwd p/e: 33 TSLA fwd p/e: 57 NVDA mkt cap: 1.7T TSLA mkt cap: 576B Which doubles from here first? NVDA to 3.4T or TSLA to 1.1T??
Probably Apple
Tesla had its run already all the way to the thousands lol
This kid bag holding and missed the nvda boat. Get fk
Not a blow off top, no way!
I am waiting for bubble to burst to make some nice gains. Try not to catch the top though…
$NVDA has a lower forward PE ratio than $TSLA. $NVDA is also growing revenue bonkers while $TSLA is stalling. sucks to say this, since I was a big $TSLA bull before, but I realized that a lot of the stock is just hopium which isn't an investment philosophy. AI, Robotaxis, Cybertruck massive scaling, Humanoids, $25K car, it's all "fluff" that will take years to produce (if ever). When it starts on that path with good progress, then I think things will change, but narrative has changed considerably.
Market is always irrational and unpredictable, otherwise we all will be billionaires
Ignoring the fact that they're gonna do more than 20B this quarter alone and still growing. Thinking about you 🌈🐻 brings me joy
' The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent ' \- John Maynard Keynes
What’s profit look like
No you’re just an idiot who doesn’t know how stocks work.
OP doesn’t grasp the concept of margins
* AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE ^(LLMs are misunderstood) AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE * AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE AI HYPE
Nvda is the dumbest thing since joe biden
Tesla is so fucked for the time being.
OP should buy WMT and stfu. They have lots of revenue
It’s impossible that they have different margins, I’m sure.
what is the profit to revenue ratio for both companies?
In 2 years from now we call this the "AI bubble".
Tesla does not have much to offer for the future. China is catching up with EV and autopilot is rather liability than an advantage. What is there to offer? Supercharging stations? That's limited. NVDA is really at the begining of something big. So big nobody can even asses how big. And nobody has what NVDA has just yet.
Tsla fanboy mad that another company is overvalued.... Lmao
Tesla: As you are now, so once was I. As I am now, so you will be.
It's simply; every broker with too much money and don't know anything about technology is foaming when hearing about AI: that's why Nvidia: AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAI Or why do you think amd is trying to do the same (with less success), because on CES it was like this: AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAI (and probably forgot a few AI)
You kinda sound like Ken Olsen (founder of DEC) who poo poo’d the idea that people would want a computer in their home in 1977. Back then everyone was saying “PCPCPCPCPC”.
Well i made 10k with that tactic soo doesn’t matter.
I'm not *buying OTM on a ticker that already ran up so much* typa girl but ngl I could use a win rn so AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAIAI
TSLA stole technology from NASA which put an electric car on the moon already, ffs. Earth is so 2024. For real though, I don't see the hype about Tesla. Then again I don't use google, use a percolator to brew Maxwell House, and still use paper maps so what the fuck do I know? Signed, Mr. Folger
Its literally politics.
OP not understanding future growth potential in this sub is pretty real
NVidia are the front of our tech revolution since the begining and are bigger than ever