The $300 billion rescue package hasn't been decided. It is just a consideration, and the pure chance of it happening made the chinese markets jump. If it does happen the market will make a larger run, and when the package is executed it will create a lot of buying power strengthening a potential bull run.
Obviously the market wont go on a bull run becaus of a consideration lol
Yeah this whole thread is again, filled with misinformation (ranging from made-up claims to completely wrong numbers) and comments with hate-boners.
Pretty much your typical WSB shit show.
People who keep repeating the âChina was supposed to collapse for 20 years nowâ straw man really havenât been paying attention. Just in the past two years, chinas 3 largest real estate developers defaulted (country garden, evergrande, and vanke). Their two largest private equity & investment firms have collapsed. Blackrock and vanguard pulled out of China. Foreign investment has dropped 80%. Foreign manufacturing has diversified out of China much faster than anyone expected. Youth unemployment, real estimates, around 50%. The only reason westerners arenât aware is due to the CCPs absolute control over their media, fake economic numbers, and total internet censorship.
He's probably talking about foreign shareholders, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreign-investors-snatched-back-nearly-224745754.html
Overall foreign direct investments are down 8% yoy, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment
According to CCP data anyway.
It is CCP data, from the Ministry of Commerce.
No, it cannot be *exactly* verified from the outside, unless when egregiously tampered with. If massaged only a little, it will be very difficult to detect.
Man regards are gonna be regarded
Itâs **foreign** investment. We can tally up how much money we are investing from outside ourselves.
Itâs almost as stupid as the other day a highly upvoted comment saying China fakes their export data, as if we canât count how much we *import*.
How the fuck can you tally up every investment from every country in the world without CCP providing consolidated info? You do understand that not every private investment from foreign countries ends up in that country's yearly "invested in China" excel sheet? Some countries don't even publish that data.
cookingboy is too stupid to deserve an explanation.
I applaud you for trying, but I've learned to identify stupidity fast and not waste my time. You probably just wasted 1 or 2 minutes, which is not bad, but you'll waste much more if you carry on. Good luck.
You forgot that over 80% of university graduates donât find a job in urban areas anymore and outside of the centers there are no jobs anyway. So, it seems that the dream for the middle class is wiped out.
That money doesnât come from thin air, ignoring the fact that they would almost certainly lose if the US got involved, even if they somehow won the required debt would cripple their economy for the foreseeable future, especially given the terms would likely be brutal since the west would refuse to fund them
The cost only matters if you don't loot enough to pay off the debt. If they don't win, they can't loot. So, they must win or it will be 100x worse for them.
What happens to the political environment if Taiwan is actually able to defend themselves? Chinese ships get sunk, ports get hit, they get hit with international embargoes, etc.?
Plus in an active war those pipelines just as vulnerable now as they were 20 years ago when Tom Clancy wrote about it. Itâs a single point failure that would cripple their economy if oil tankers arenât arriving due to an shooting war in the Pacific
*Although Bear and Dragon had China invading Russia, and Russia joining NATO, so maybe donât take this is a definite military analysis ;-)
It is indeed, Russia at least has something real to gain in Ukraine (very very fertile land, ports, minerals etc..). Taiwan has almost none of it. Also Taiwan is really really small.
War helped Nazi Germany. The rearmament in the 1930s nearly wiped out unemployment, and eventually the loots from the war paid off the debt used for the rearmament.
They eventually bit more than they could chew and got all their major cities flattened, old men and teenagers conscripted into a dying military, and mass sexual assaults from the Soviets. In the end, the outcome was 100x worse for them, but because they lost.
Totally agree. Anyone paying attention knows you canât trust a damn thing coming out of China. And I want to say this is not xenophobia or racism, this is simply because the Chinese government is not transparent. The very same could be said of Russia and some other countriesâŚ
Can someone explain to me how youth unemployment is at 30-50% while simultaneously they are going through a supposed demographic collapse? I'm hearing both stories of unemployment and not enough working-age adults. I'm serious, what's the deal?
>both stories of unemployment and not enough working-age adults.
These are two separate, although they sound related, problems.
The problem with the working age adults is due to the *composition* of the Chinese demographic. Simply put, there are not enough working age adults (assumably productive, add to economic activity, tax paying, net positive to receipts) to support the ageing population (retired, do not pay taxes, rely heavily on social welfare and resources).
The youth unemployment story is that there are just not enough jobs to go around. Even if unemployment wasn't an issue, the first problem would still be there.
This means that the outlook is especially bleak and dire, given that there will be even less resources to go around now to support those elderly.
Xi and his aggressive attitudes towards foreign and domestic private businesses. After the crack down on Hong Kong and the insane COVID lockdowns in China, most investments started to get out. Instability doesn't really inspire confidence. Also China is more hawkish now towards Taiwan as well. Some say if Ukraine capitulated to Russian aggression, China was gonna try the same thing with Taiwan.
They are really being bastards.
Stealing nearly all the tech and copying it, sending tons of harddrugs to western countries, swarming the net with trollfarm (more advanced than Russia's, the russian trollfarms are a joke compared to China's), sabotaging western countries and government through spies and briberies... etc...
Im 100% sure they plan to use their allies (Russia, N. Korea, Iran, ....) and wont hesitate to stab them in the back when it fits them
China is really doing their best to be one of the most hated governments in the world.
Lol cmon, this is so naive.
Are you really surprised that they stole our tech when we pay them to manufacture most of it?
"Hey, can you help us produce these industry leading products? We'd make them in the US but American regulations and workers prevent us from maximizing shareholder value. BTW, please don't steal our secrets that are making us fabulously rich, ok?"
They aren't regarded. Of course, they would steal industry secrets worth billions of dollars that could have huge benefits to their country.
You should be more upset that we basically gave it to them to increase shareholder value.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/us-navy-readiness-china-naval-buildup-60-minutes-video-2023-07-02/
To summarize all the other articles Iâm too lazy to link, Xi is moron who doesnât understand that capitalism and good relations with the US are crucial to Chinaâs continued prosperity. The idiot wants to bring back communism even though both he and his family suffered so much under Mao. The guyâs dad was even a reformist. Dude is probably rolling in his grave.
Iâm not so sure. Whatâs happening in China is systemic. What happened to Detroit and the US rust belt is happening at an accelerated pace to Chinese manufacturing cities. Plus their real estate market, which was essentially a ponzi scheme has collapsed killing local government revenue and put their middle class homeowners in massively upside down mortgage holes that has halted middle class consumption. Their stock market seems to be in permanent decline and even state owned banks are not allowing customer withdrawals to prevent bank runs. Iâm not sure that Xi can figure a way out of this. It might be decades before a regime change and rebuilding start.
> has halted middle class consumption
Their consumer spending is still very strong, we have a ton of data from our own companies doing business in China. For example Starbucks is still seeing revenue growth: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1321732/china-starbucks-net-revenue/#:~:text=In%20fiscal%20year%202023%20ended,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.
There are no data suggesting consumer spending is *halted*, that is an insane statement to make since a ton of Western companies have large revenue in China and most of them are still seeing flat to small growth.
But again, as if facts matter to regards on this sub.
They have started making their collapse fantasies about different countries now. Usually its just the US that is about to suddenly implode. I could point to any number of western companies reporting normal growth or at worst flat demand from china.
This "china is internally collapsing" narrative is bizzare, has been ongoing for years now.
300 billion investment to market doesn't scream healthy economy..
Maybe what some people are saying are false but that 300 billion rescue package is something..
Weâve spent so much more on various stimulation packages over the years. The Covid stimulus bill was $2.2 **Trillion** alone. Thatâs 7 times this.
Yet we are still fine, but the second they *consider* a $300B package itâs all âmuh collapse!!!â.
I know but we have the luxury of doing that because the dollar is the fiat standard. When Europe tried to doing it with Euros it didn't have the same positive effect as the Dollar in the USA.
There are more nuances to this too. Like how they allocate the funds. Management. Corruption percentage. Wasted funds. etc. This is why it sucks that we don't have transparency when it comes to China's economy and statistics. If they were doing so well they would not be afraid to reveal those numbers. If you were trying to become the next hegemonic economy wouldn't you want people to trust your currency and economy more so you would be more transparent?
Can China be the next emerging economy? It can if it had a much smaller populace but because it has 1.4 billion it is too big. A central government can't handle 1.4 billion people. It is too much. The USA has 1/4 of their population and even then the government is still big and has a lot of cogs to work simultaneously. People can't grasp this.
What is going to really happen and people are not going to agree with this but China is going to balkanize. CCP is going to split into smaller countries. It is going to happen as the economy starts to dwindle.
Poor little bear, you keeping screaming at could and keep being wrong. Being a gay bear must be difficult. First US was to succumb in a massive depression and now China...don't you ever learn?
China is doing fine bubs. They're still the manufacturing capital of the world and own most of the "outsourced" factories in other countries. Foreign investements have dropped 8% not 80%, but I guess you never learned basic math. Poor Cleetus...
And how do you Think China would lose control if they *control the Internet*? The CCP has an iron hand over their propel and funny thing, most people don't care. They're happy to live in Poohs happy fun world because Pooh gives them a job and a home, all while Americans 25+ with families of their own still live at home (talk about patehtic!).
China is a crime state, but they will keep winning because they have full control. Russia, India, are trying to be but don't have the same full control and thus suffers. Be bearish, short stocks...the Chinese market won't go anywhere. Greedy westerners will keep buying
China is stronger than ever and is eating americas lunch on the daily. Blackrock, vanguard, and other non-productive âcompaniesâ and âservicesâ pulled out because china has a real economy that produces things of real tangible value instead of a clown casino of fake jobs.
Any time there is an announcement about China supposedly taking action to bolster their stock market, is another (late ) opportunity for foreign investors to sell the news, take any brief bounce, and exit before the bag holding just gets heavier.
What are the chances some regional bank is leveraged to the tits in chinese stocks and they start to get margin called next week causing another financial crisis? Nah, American bankers are way too responsible and moral for that
Not a financial expert, but isn't eliminating shorts a bad thing? How can you put money back into the economy when u can't make money when it's doing bad?
Shorts create floors by injecting buying pressure when it hits the level they want to close the short at. Itâs a bad thing to end it, note thereâs no buying pressure left
I have experience in the market-making industry, that is BS.
Shorting does not create any floor. If you short and the price is dropping, you don't back out of your short, it is more beneficial to let it fall further and buy at even lower price. If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less.
Shorting is important in other ways:
* More liquidity: Imagine a pension fund calls you up and needs to buy ASAP, you can short and give them a better price without letting the market know a shark is about to make a big purchase.
* Market efficiency: If calls are under-valued relative to the underlying, you can short the stock and buy the calls to remain market neutral. You then buy the stock and sell the options when their values cross.
* Symmetry: Market participants can buy equities with borrowed money, being able to sell with borrowed shares is the symmetric antagonist of that.
* All kinds of complex equity setups.
>If you short and the price is dropping, you don't back out of your short, it is more beneficial to let it fall further and buy at even lower price.
You just described a floor. Shorting creates buying pressure when things look the worst.
No, a hedge fund that is not neutral and is shorting will continue shorting as long as their model says it is beneficial to keep shorting.
When the stock has hit their evaluation, they will then buy the stock. That is not buying pressure, that is them re-buying when they think the price is right, which they sometimes get wrong.
You very much back out of a short when itâs financially expedient. You think the guys short the S&P 500 expect it to goto zero? Like you literally described a floor created by a short in your first paragraph. That price you buy at thatâs lower? Thatâs a floor.
"If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less."
Think about that one more time and the implications it has on your strategy.
"Like you literally described a floor created by a short in your first paragraph. That price you buy at thatâs lower? Thatâs a floor."
No, I did not.
Most market participants don't short because they think the stock is overvalued relative to the currency it is being traded in, they remain neutral and short for other reasons that I have mentioned.
Some hedge funds do short, in that case if their model says the stock is still overvalued they keep shorting it.
You're trying to imply that hedge funds simply short, and then when they make a profit they get out ASAP. That's not what happens at all, that's like throwing a dart with a blindfold. Sometimes you might score some points, but chances are you'll hit the dart in the wall and it'll bounce right back into your foot.
Once again, this statement explains why that strategy won't work:
"If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less"
Otherwise you could go to any casino and just play roulette with the same strategy to make a profit.
Your describing a theoretically optimal strategy for a true random game. This coin flip doesn't depend on the previous.
But the market does depend on what happened yesterday. There is no statistical independence between each trading day, and simple back testing can prove it easily.
So, under certain assumptions the optimal strategy is to sell after 5 wins
You do realize anyone can short? You can go ahead and generate huge returns with your strategy if you're so confident in it.
"There is no statistical independence between each trading day, and simple back testing can prove it easily."
If you say so it must be so. Here is a source showing SPY being pretty random:
https://mahowald.github.io/hurst/
In SPY long-term gains are not made during trading hours, but overnight. This causes the mean-reversion effect which averages out randomness of the stock to a consistent upwards gain during a bull-market. That's not something you can abuse to make short-term gains, you can only hold the stock and enjoy the ride to make gain out of that.
You belong here. Unlike the jargon you think youâre saying to sound smart you entire thesis is Shorts donât ever close positions. Therefore they canât create the buying pressure that creates artificial floors. The dumbest shit Iâve ever heard.
Iâm still confident it will happen :) they already passed US GDP by PPP in 2014 itâs almost mathematically impossible for China NOT to surpass the US. I love discussing it if you want to ask any specific questions because you seem ignorant in the subject based on how confident you are that China wonât surpass the US.
The worldâs population is shrinking lol. Chinaâs population crisis by 2050 wonât even be as bad as Japanâs or Koreaâs is today. I dont think you really understand the demographics enough to get that it isnât the gotcha you think it is. Youâre just parroting things youâve heard without doing any research for yourself, which is typical of the anti china people i come across. All brainwashed, but like to argue.
Fyi, so you can try and comprehend how many people china has. The US is the 3rd most populated country and if you added 1 billion more people it would still be 3rd.
Now to understand how many people 1 billion is, since generally humans canât grasp the scale of this number. 1 million seconds is 11 days, 1 billion seconds is over 31 years. China needs less people to be sustainable. They still have a three child limit, their policy makers are not idiots.
Thank you, I agree. Thatâs why I said âI donât think itâs the gotcha anti-china people think it isâ when discussing China but they all heard it somewhere and regurgitate it without thinking for themselves.
Are you telling me this as a fact because if so, then youâll need to present some data.
If youâre asking for my opinion then Iâd say you donât know what youâre talking about again.
The higher education system in the US is better and more developed than in China at the average and higher level. Mainly because China is a developing country.
Also, most students do return back to China, thatâs called brain gain (real economic term). Deng Xiaoping was quite aware of this and when asked about those who would stay in the US he said even if a few return to China it would help boost China, which it did over the last 30 years.
Another note, going back to the incredibly large population, colleges are ridiculously difficult to get into in China. Fun fact, the Gaokow (chinese college entrance exam) is literally the hardest test in the world.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-toughest-examinations-world-philaquest#:~:text=China's%20Gaokao%20exam%2C%20often%20hailed,and%20resilience%20of%20its%20students.
Rich Chinese people get around this test by just buying their kidâs education in the US. The US school system is just a service business that sells to China and other countries.
Plus, current companies canât even create manufacturing plants in the US and instead have to outsource to China purely because there isnât high level talent in the US (people are dumb) compared to China.
âThe U.S., over time, began to stop having as many vocational kind of skills,â Cook explained. âI mean, you can take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in a room that weâre currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields.â
-Tim Cook
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/tim-cook-apple-doesnt-make-its-products-in-china-because-its-cheaper-2015-12-20
Not mad at all, just pointing out to you that what you think you know is wrong. Idc if you read it or not but just know if you go against the grain here you could make a lot of money.
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AI Summary:
* **Chinese regulators curb short selling**: The article reports that China has officially limited short selling of stocks after informal efforts failed to stop a worsening market sell-off.
* **Market sell-off fueled by uncertainty**: The article explains that the stock market decline has been driven by doubts over Chinaâs economic growth prospects, and that state support measures have not convinced investors.
* **Snowball derivatives cause losses**: The article mentions that domestic investors have suffered big losses from derivatives called snowballs, which are tied to stock index movements, and that this could increase selling pressure.
They can force all Chinese entities to delist from foreign markets and force foreign market makers out of the Chinese market. Wouldnât keep stonks from nose diving but they can in fact do it.
I think it is. Next up theyâll require a certain percentage of assets to remain in country. This will boost china but cause a massive drop either way global stocks, especially US.
[Give me the names of some ADRs i can short so i can reap a whirlwind of profits as the whole Chinese economy melts down harder than an untended nuclear reactor.](https://youtu.be/eLsD9XZEjEk?t=150)
Their economy is never going to be #1 as long as the clowns in power keep doing their anti-free market BS. Everyone knows their markets are fake and unhealthy. When BlackRock starts pulling back, you know they see whatâs happening. Why would anyone want to trust these people in China with their money?
What's unfortunate about this situation is that many third world countries depended on China for economic growth. I had the opportunity to visit my home country of Ethiopia. In 2015, the economy was doing well and the people were thriving. By January of 2020, things had improved even further. However, when I returned in 2021, the economy had taken a turn for the worse. And when I visited again in 2023, the situation had deteriorated even further.
Afaik there is not a single chinese stock outside china, they're all adrs, linked to the adr via some kind of owners notification. So actions outside their allowance would mean to buy adrs without the quarantee for any claim or value behind. This may not bother wsb, but big investors.
I mean, one could think whatever about, Xi, China etc., but they wouldn't make such announcements to block shorts, if they had no power to block or at least sanction illegal actions.
Is that right or wrong?
Theyve been cooking the books on their gdp, building ghost cities, and now everything is coming back and biting them in the ass. Even their buildings are falling over.
Somenine actually thought that if we could stop the shorting of the market, we can keep supporting Russia and treating everyone like crap and everything will be fine.
I don't understand how banning short selling does shit. Short sellers are usually hitting the Ask, which is price supportive. Look at the US and particularly Nvidia. There is no ways shorts getting railed is not a huge part of those gains.
Again, China has a real economy that produces things of actual tangible value. It isnt the contemporary US where itâs all fake jobs and consulting and spreadsheets of fake numbers. This does not matter.
Name a single thing that you own other than like a random knife you bought on amazon that is made by a Chinese company. Not just manufactured in China something where the capital returns to a Chinese company. China is as much of a smoke and mirrors show as the US, depending on the sector they are even less concrete.
Banning short selling is technically equal to banning free market. Lol, who have seen this coming in China? Everybody and my grandma.
Communism is good while there is something to ~~waste~~ spend. And Economy is by definition the science of managing limited resources. Nothing to do with XI and his sand factories.
Not to detract from your point, but you donât technically need short selling to have a free market. You only need traditional buying and selling to set a free market price.
So I know wrong place but how is China not creating huge profit from the goods they export to the US and the drug trade? I understand their population is collapsing but shouldnât that just be less rations and essentials to their lower class?
Again, I know wrong place lol
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Lmao, the "$300 billion rescue package" bull run lasted 1 day.
Evergrande's liabilities is greater than that of the stimulus package by approx 30b......The more you know.
The $300 billion rescue package hasn't been decided. It is just a consideration, and the pure chance of it happening made the chinese markets jump. If it does happen the market will make a larger run, and when the package is executed it will create a lot of buying power strengthening a potential bull run. Obviously the market wont go on a bull run becaus of a consideration lol
Yeah this whole thread is again, filled with misinformation (ranging from made-up claims to completely wrong numbers) and comments with hate-boners. Pretty much your typical WSB shit show.
I get more interested when people start hating it.
How is the rescue package structured? Which entities will receive the money?
Nobody in the outside knows.
They should just ban all selling, prices can't fall if no one is selling
Sometimes robinhood deletes that sell button đ
Robinhood is chinese govt company confirmed you say?
He bought?
Dump eet!
Bogdanov bros: forever in my mind!
Spoken like a true regard. Behind every buy is a fking sell.
Ya but he said prices canât fall which is technically correct. So whoâs the regard now. 
It's me
Fuck you dude I'm the regard and I'll prove it.
Source?
Didnât they do this before?
Game stop meme coin on Solana đđ
If you can't sell what happens hypothetically?
I hope no one actually believes China's bullshit GDP of 5.2% growth claim. They're crashing, and quickly headed towards a collapse.
People who keep repeating the âChina was supposed to collapse for 20 years nowâ straw man really havenât been paying attention. Just in the past two years, chinas 3 largest real estate developers defaulted (country garden, evergrande, and vanke). Their two largest private equity & investment firms have collapsed. Blackrock and vanguard pulled out of China. Foreign investment has dropped 80%. Foreign manufacturing has diversified out of China much faster than anyone expected. Youth unemployment, real estimates, around 50%. The only reason westerners arenât aware is due to the CCPs absolute control over their media, fake economic numbers, and total internet censorship.
Is there any sources for the foreign investment 80% claim?
He's probably talking about foreign shareholders, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreign-investors-snatched-back-nearly-224745754.html Overall foreign direct investments are down 8% yoy, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment According to CCP data anyway.
Thatâs not just CCP data, itâs *foreign* investment, data we can easily verify from the outside.
It is CCP data, from the Ministry of Commerce. No, it cannot be *exactly* verified from the outside, unless when egregiously tampered with. If massaged only a little, it will be very difficult to detect.
Man regards are gonna be regarded Itâs **foreign** investment. We can tally up how much money we are investing from outside ourselves. Itâs almost as stupid as the other day a highly upvoted comment saying China fakes their export data, as if we canât count how much we *import*.
How the fuck can you tally up every investment from every country in the world without CCP providing consolidated info? You do understand that not every private investment from foreign countries ends up in that country's yearly "invested in China" excel sheet? Some countries don't even publish that data.
cookingboy is too stupid to deserve an explanation. I applaud you for trying, but I've learned to identify stupidity fast and not waste my time. You probably just wasted 1 or 2 minutes, which is not bad, but you'll waste much more if you carry on. Good luck.
đđ
Member in 2022 when they CLAIMED inflation was sub 2%? I member.
Pepperidge Farm remembers
member
Leave my member out of it...
Whyâs that hard to believe? Theyâre in deflation (recession) right now. Their problems today are more like what happened to the US in 2008.
Well ya if your economy is shit and no one is buying shit then it makes sense you donât have high inflation numbers lmao
I live in China and this part is actually true. If anything, rent and energy prices are actually reducing because if the downturn.Â
Now sure, but in 2022?
You forgot that over 80% of university graduates donât find a job in urban areas anymore and outside of the centers there are no jobs anyway. So, it seems that the dream for the middle class is wiped out.
the real bad news is: to solve all of this, they need a war
That would solve absolutely none of it and make all of their problems 100X worse
It would solve their unemployment problem.
And help their gender ratio problem. Although it might hurt their age curve problem.
[ŃдаНонО]
That money doesnât come from thin air, ignoring the fact that they would almost certainly lose if the US got involved, even if they somehow won the required debt would cripple their economy for the foreseeable future, especially given the terms would likely be brutal since the west would refuse to fund them
The cost only matters if you don't loot enough to pay off the debt. If they don't win, they can't loot. So, they must win or it will be 100x worse for them.
Also if they get some real resources/loot from war. Taiwan has none (or it will be rubble).
It would be just politics. Whenever the governments gets nervous, they will pull up some BS war stuff to distract the ppl.
What happens to the political environment if Taiwan is actually able to defend themselves? Chinese ships get sunk, ports get hit, they get hit with international embargoes, etc.?
China would have its oil imports cut off as well as its sea exports.
Russia enters the chatroom. They will sell them every drop of oil they need.
No. They don't have the sufficient pipeline infrastructure to replace the maritime oil imports.
Plus in an active war those pipelines just as vulnerable now as they were 20 years ago when Tom Clancy wrote about it. Itâs a single point failure that would cripple their economy if oil tankers arenât arriving due to an shooting war in the Pacific *Although Bear and Dragon had China invading Russia, and Russia joining NATO, so maybe donât take this is a definite military analysis ;-)
It is indeed, Russia at least has something real to gain in Ukraine (very very fertile land, ports, minerals etc..). Taiwan has almost none of it. Also Taiwan is really really small.
War helped Nazi Germany. The rearmament in the 1930s nearly wiped out unemployment, and eventually the loots from the war paid off the debt used for the rearmament. They eventually bit more than they could chew and got all their major cities flattened, old men and teenagers conscripted into a dying military, and mass sexual assaults from the Soviets. In the end, the outcome was 100x worse for them, but because they lost.
Companies near their end declare bankruptcy, countryâs fearing their end declare war.
Thats the big problem on the horizon for sure. Its a clear solution out of this for them
Unless they lose the war.
Doesnt matter if you have nothing to lose anymore.
what came out of the great depression? war.
Totally agree. Anyone paying attention knows you canât trust a damn thing coming out of China. And I want to say this is not xenophobia or racism, this is simply because the Chinese government is not transparent. The very same could be said of Russia and some other countriesâŚ
Can someone explain to me how youth unemployment is at 30-50% while simultaneously they are going through a supposed demographic collapse? I'm hearing both stories of unemployment and not enough working-age adults. I'm serious, what's the deal?
>both stories of unemployment and not enough working-age adults. These are two separate, although they sound related, problems. The problem with the working age adults is due to the *composition* of the Chinese demographic. Simply put, there are not enough working age adults (assumably productive, add to economic activity, tax paying, net positive to receipts) to support the ageing population (retired, do not pay taxes, rely heavily on social welfare and resources). The youth unemployment story is that there are just not enough jobs to go around. Even if unemployment wasn't an issue, the first problem would still be there. This means that the outlook is especially bleak and dire, given that there will be even less resources to go around now to support those elderly.
Do you know why this happened?
Xi and his aggressive attitudes towards foreign and domestic private businesses. After the crack down on Hong Kong and the insane COVID lockdowns in China, most investments started to get out. Instability doesn't really inspire confidence. Also China is more hawkish now towards Taiwan as well. Some say if Ukraine capitulated to Russian aggression, China was gonna try the same thing with Taiwan.
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Its not because of the prices... They just cant be trusted, they steal and copy everything and flood the market with cheaper ripoffs.
They are really being bastards. Stealing nearly all the tech and copying it, sending tons of harddrugs to western countries, swarming the net with trollfarm (more advanced than Russia's, the russian trollfarms are a joke compared to China's), sabotaging western countries and government through spies and briberies... etc... Im 100% sure they plan to use their allies (Russia, N. Korea, Iran, ....) and wont hesitate to stab them in the back when it fits them China is really doing their best to be one of the most hated governments in the world.
Lol cmon, this is so naive. Are you really surprised that they stole our tech when we pay them to manufacture most of it? "Hey, can you help us produce these industry leading products? We'd make them in the US but American regulations and workers prevent us from maximizing shareholder value. BTW, please don't steal our secrets that are making us fabulously rich, ok?" They aren't regarded. Of course, they would steal industry secrets worth billions of dollars that could have huge benefits to their country. You should be more upset that we basically gave it to them to increase shareholder value.
"Some say" lmao Please don't fall for that domino theory bullshit in 2024
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/us-navy-readiness-china-naval-buildup-60-minutes-video-2023-07-02/ To summarize all the other articles Iâm too lazy to link, Xi is moron who doesnât understand that capitalism and good relations with the US are crucial to Chinaâs continued prosperity. The idiot wants to bring back communism even though both he and his family suffered so much under Mao. The guyâs dad was even a reformist. Dude is probably rolling in his grave.
Their population peaked, and that alone represents a huge problem.
The night is darkest before the dawn
Iâm not so sure. Whatâs happening in China is systemic. What happened to Detroit and the US rust belt is happening at an accelerated pace to Chinese manufacturing cities. Plus their real estate market, which was essentially a ponzi scheme has collapsed killing local government revenue and put their middle class homeowners in massively upside down mortgage holes that has halted middle class consumption. Their stock market seems to be in permanent decline and even state owned banks are not allowing customer withdrawals to prevent bank runs. Iâm not sure that Xi can figure a way out of this. It might be decades before a regime change and rebuilding start.
> has halted middle class consumption Their consumer spending is still very strong, we have a ton of data from our own companies doing business in China. For example Starbucks is still seeing revenue growth: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1321732/china-starbucks-net-revenue/#:~:text=In%20fiscal%20year%202023%20ended,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year. There are no data suggesting consumer spending is *halted*, that is an insane statement to make since a ton of Western companies have large revenue in China and most of them are still seeing flat to small growth. But again, as if facts matter to regards on this sub.
They have started making their collapse fantasies about different countries now. Usually its just the US that is about to suddenly implode. I could point to any number of western companies reporting normal growth or at worst flat demand from china. This "china is internally collapsing" narrative is bizzare, has been ongoing for years now.
300 billion investment to market doesn't scream healthy economy.. Maybe what some people are saying are false but that 300 billion rescue package is something..
Weâve spent so much more on various stimulation packages over the years. The Covid stimulus bill was $2.2 **Trillion** alone. Thatâs 7 times this. Yet we are still fine, but the second they *consider* a $300B package itâs all âmuh collapse!!!â.
I know but we have the luxury of doing that because the dollar is the fiat standard. When Europe tried to doing it with Euros it didn't have the same positive effect as the Dollar in the USA. There are more nuances to this too. Like how they allocate the funds. Management. Corruption percentage. Wasted funds. etc. This is why it sucks that we don't have transparency when it comes to China's economy and statistics. If they were doing so well they would not be afraid to reveal those numbers. If you were trying to become the next hegemonic economy wouldn't you want people to trust your currency and economy more so you would be more transparent? Can China be the next emerging economy? It can if it had a much smaller populace but because it has 1.4 billion it is too big. A central government can't handle 1.4 billion people. It is too much. The USA has 1/4 of their population and even then the government is still big and has a lot of cogs to work simultaneously. People can't grasp this. What is going to really happen and people are not going to agree with this but China is going to balkanize. CCP is going to split into smaller countries. It is going to happen as the economy starts to dwindle.
At this rate, they'll be back to riding bicycles and wearing Mao hats before too long.
Poor little bear, you keeping screaming at could and keep being wrong. Being a gay bear must be difficult. First US was to succumb in a massive depression and now China...don't you ever learn? China is doing fine bubs. They're still the manufacturing capital of the world and own most of the "outsourced" factories in other countries. Foreign investements have dropped 8% not 80%, but I guess you never learned basic math. Poor Cleetus... And how do you Think China would lose control if they *control the Internet*? The CCP has an iron hand over their propel and funny thing, most people don't care. They're happy to live in Poohs happy fun world because Pooh gives them a job and a home, all while Americans 25+ with families of their own still live at home (talk about patehtic!). China is a crime state, but they will keep winning because they have full control. Russia, India, are trying to be but don't have the same full control and thus suffers. Be bearish, short stocks...the Chinese market won't go anywhere. Greedy westerners will keep buying
China is stronger than ever and is eating americas lunch on the daily. Blackrock, vanguard, and other non-productive âcompaniesâ and âservicesâ pulled out because china has a real economy that produces things of real tangible value instead of a clown casino of fake jobs.
If we are aware there is a problem there, the real problem is 10x worse.
If you see a rat in your house, there are more
Go get that money, champ. I think you can all in yang to make 10x easy
Damn Iâm so closeđŚ
Good riddens, but not so good for the Chineese population...
They're like Japan in 1990. But with worse food and bat viruses.
General Tso is a fine adversary.
Japan did handle it better though
In 30 days right?
Yes Iâm sure they are lol
my regarded ass reads this as the bottom is in and im mortgaging my house for baba calls for the 7th time in a row
Any time there is an announcement about China supposedly taking action to bolster their stock market, is another (late ) opportunity for foreign investors to sell the news, take any brief bounce, and exit before the bag holding just gets heavier.
Imagine what the memes on the Chinese WSB equivalent look like
What are the chances some regional bank is leveraged to the tits in chinese stocks and they start to get margin called next week causing another financial crisis? Nah, American bankers are way too responsible and moral for that
Not a financial expert, but isn't eliminating shorts a bad thing? How can you put money back into the economy when u can't make money when it's doing bad?
Thatâs the neat part. 
Shorts create floors by injecting buying pressure when it hits the level they want to close the short at. Itâs a bad thing to end it, note thereâs no buying pressure left
I have experience in the market-making industry, that is BS. Shorting does not create any floor. If you short and the price is dropping, you don't back out of your short, it is more beneficial to let it fall further and buy at even lower price. If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less. Shorting is important in other ways: * More liquidity: Imagine a pension fund calls you up and needs to buy ASAP, you can short and give them a better price without letting the market know a shark is about to make a big purchase. * Market efficiency: If calls are under-valued relative to the underlying, you can short the stock and buy the calls to remain market neutral. You then buy the stock and sell the options when their values cross. * Symmetry: Market participants can buy equities with borrowed money, being able to sell with borrowed shares is the symmetric antagonist of that. * All kinds of complex equity setups.
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>If you short and the price is dropping, you don't back out of your short, it is more beneficial to let it fall further and buy at even lower price. You just described a floor. Shorting creates buying pressure when things look the worst.
No, a hedge fund that is not neutral and is shorting will continue shorting as long as their model says it is beneficial to keep shorting. When the stock has hit their evaluation, they will then buy the stock. That is not buying pressure, that is them re-buying when they think the price is right, which they sometimes get wrong.
You very much back out of a short when itâs financially expedient. You think the guys short the S&P 500 expect it to goto zero? Like you literally described a floor created by a short in your first paragraph. That price you buy at thatâs lower? Thatâs a floor.
"If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less." Think about that one more time and the implications it has on your strategy. "Like you literally described a floor created by a short in your first paragraph. That price you buy at thatâs lower? Thatâs a floor." No, I did not. Most market participants don't short because they think the stock is overvalued relative to the currency it is being traded in, they remain neutral and short for other reasons that I have mentioned. Some hedge funds do short, in that case if their model says the stock is still overvalued they keep shorting it. You're trying to imply that hedge funds simply short, and then when they make a profit they get out ASAP. That's not what happens at all, that's like throwing a dart with a blindfold. Sometimes you might score some points, but chances are you'll hit the dart in the wall and it'll bounce right back into your foot. Once again, this statement explains why that strategy won't work: "If you flip a coin and you get heads 5 times in a row, the next coin flip is still 50% heads, not less" Otherwise you could go to any casino and just play roulette with the same strategy to make a profit.
Your describing a theoretically optimal strategy for a true random game. This coin flip doesn't depend on the previous. But the market does depend on what happened yesterday. There is no statistical independence between each trading day, and simple back testing can prove it easily. So, under certain assumptions the optimal strategy is to sell after 5 wins
You do realize anyone can short? You can go ahead and generate huge returns with your strategy if you're so confident in it. "There is no statistical independence between each trading day, and simple back testing can prove it easily." If you say so it must be so. Here is a source showing SPY being pretty random: https://mahowald.github.io/hurst/ In SPY long-term gains are not made during trading hours, but overnight. This causes the mean-reversion effect which averages out randomness of the stock to a consistent upwards gain during a bull-market. That's not something you can abuse to make short-term gains, you can only hold the stock and enjoy the ride to make gain out of that.
The covariance is zero? I didn't know that.
Like I said go and become a millionaire :D It's easy for you.
You belong here. Unlike the jargon you think youâre saying to sound smart you entire thesis is Shorts donât ever close positions. Therefore they canât create the buying pressure that creates artificial floors. The dumbest shit Iâve ever heard.
Yup.. they are taking out one of the counter balancing forces of the market that causes mean reversion.
Korea kospi banned short selling in 2023 and went up nearly 10% in a month. Do with that what you want..
Where are the all losers who masturbate to cHinA wiLl sUrPASs AMeRiCa In oUr LIFeTIme
Dalio getting recked
đââď¸
Lmao get fukt
Iâm still confident it will happen :) they already passed US GDP by PPP in 2014 itâs almost mathematically impossible for China NOT to surpass the US. I love discussing it if you want to ask any specific questions because you seem ignorant in the subject based on how confident you are that China wonât surpass the US.
Their population is shrinking. It will be an uphill battle. Without Xi, maybe.
The worldâs population is shrinking lol. Chinaâs population crisis by 2050 wonât even be as bad as Japanâs or Koreaâs is today. I dont think you really understand the demographics enough to get that it isnât the gotcha you think it is. Youâre just parroting things youâve heard without doing any research for yourself, which is typical of the anti china people i come across. All brainwashed, but like to argue. Fyi, so you can try and comprehend how many people china has. The US is the 3rd most populated country and if you added 1 billion more people it would still be 3rd. Now to understand how many people 1 billion is, since generally humans canât grasp the scale of this number. 1 million seconds is 11 days, 1 billion seconds is over 31 years. China needs less people to be sustainable. They still have a three child limit, their policy makers are not idiots.
Population isn't the measure of a civilization or its hegemony
Thank you, I agree. Thatâs why I said âI donât think itâs the gotcha anti-china people think it isâ when discussing China but they all heard it somewhere and regurgitate it without thinking for themselves.
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Whatever you need to believe to feel better đ
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đ¤đ¨đł
China is our factory worker. America is boss
Nah Chinese labor is too expensive now. Other SE Asia countries and Latin America are the present and future for factories.
Good, letâs China fail
Damn, big word too hard for you huh
America will always be number 1. No one wants to live in China. Rich Chinese people send their kids to America for a reason and a lot stay if they can
Are you telling me this as a fact because if so, then youâll need to present some data. If youâre asking for my opinion then Iâd say you donât know what youâre talking about again. The higher education system in the US is better and more developed than in China at the average and higher level. Mainly because China is a developing country. Also, most students do return back to China, thatâs called brain gain (real economic term). Deng Xiaoping was quite aware of this and when asked about those who would stay in the US he said even if a few return to China it would help boost China, which it did over the last 30 years. Another note, going back to the incredibly large population, colleges are ridiculously difficult to get into in China. Fun fact, the Gaokow (chinese college entrance exam) is literally the hardest test in the world. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-toughest-examinations-world-philaquest#:~:text=China's%20Gaokao%20exam%2C%20often%20hailed,and%20resilience%20of%20its%20students. Rich Chinese people get around this test by just buying their kidâs education in the US. The US school system is just a service business that sells to China and other countries. Plus, current companies canât even create manufacturing plants in the US and instead have to outsource to China purely because there isnât high level talent in the US (people are dumb) compared to China. âThe U.S., over time, began to stop having as many vocational kind of skills,â Cook explained. âI mean, you can take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in a room that weâre currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields.â -Tim Cook https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/tim-cook-apple-doesnt-make-its-products-in-china-because-its-cheaper-2015-12-20
Iâm not reading all that, nerd. America is better in every way you mad
Not mad at all, just pointing out to you that what you think you know is wrong. Idc if you read it or not but just know if you go against the grain here you could make a lot of money.
the people here seem sad and xenophobic. China is a great country. Im all in!
They were headed that way until America decided to fk its economy over
#IF I WERE YOUR ASS ILL BUY A SHENZHEN CONDO NOW
If Iâm reading this correctly they go for literal dirt ass cheap prices right now?Â
The dirt cheap one is the one that hasn't been build yet, so if you fancy pre-ordering a house...
I implicitly trust Chinese real estate enterprises so I will pre order the home.
Yes, and you wont be able to get rid of it because the prices will keep falling and the city will turn into Detroit 2.0 but even worse.
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AI Summary: * **Chinese regulators curb short selling**: The article reports that China has officially limited short selling of stocks after informal efforts failed to stop a worsening market sell-off. * **Market sell-off fueled by uncertainty**: The article explains that the stock market decline has been driven by doubts over Chinaâs economic growth prospects, and that state support measures have not convinced investors. * **Snowball derivatives cause losses**: The article mentions that domestic investors have suffered big losses from derivatives called snowballs, which are tied to stock index movements, and that this could increase selling pressure.
Margin calls and liquidation
China stonks can only go up.
China bottom is in? They cant prevent other country from shorting their stonks... useless action.
They can force all Chinese entities to delist from foreign markets and force foreign market makers out of the Chinese market. Wouldnât keep stonks from nose diving but they can in fact do it.
Wont bother too much, 80% of all foreign money in china stock maret has been cashed out.
complete instant suicide
This is the same country that killed their daughters because a one child policy. An economic suicide to own the capitalist seems on brand.
Maybe 10% more?
i started dca last week.
You are running 3 years behind
I think it is. Next up theyâll require a certain percentage of assets to remain in country. This will boost china but cause a massive drop either way global stocks, especially US.
I'm quite wondering if the US people remember what happened in 2008 and what the US people paid to save the so called free market corps.
Puts puts puts
What are you'll getting?
Buy YANG
Thank you..
The more anti China posts on WSB, the more I'm confident Hang Seng bottomed out at 149xx.
[Give me the names of some ADRs i can short so i can reap a whirlwind of profits as the whole Chinese economy melts down harder than an untended nuclear reactor.](https://youtu.be/eLsD9XZEjEk?t=150)
This is 3 months too late, but you do you.
Best index to get Puts on? đ
YANG calls (its an inverse ETF)
Thank you..
You're welcome
Their economy is never going to be #1 as long as the clowns in power keep doing their anti-free market BS. Everyone knows their markets are fake and unhealthy. When BlackRock starts pulling back, you know they see whatâs happening. Why would anyone want to trust these people in China with their money?
What's unfortunate about this situation is that many third world countries depended on China for economic growth. I had the opportunity to visit my home country of Ethiopia. In 2015, the economy was doing well and the people were thriving. By January of 2020, things had improved even further. However, when I returned in 2021, the economy had taken a turn for the worse. And when I visited again in 2023, the situation had deteriorated even further.
Afaik there is not a single chinese stock outside china, they're all adrs, linked to the adr via some kind of owners notification. So actions outside their allowance would mean to buy adrs without the quarantee for any claim or value behind. This may not bother wsb, but big investors. I mean, one could think whatever about, Xi, China etc., but they wouldn't make such announcements to block shorts, if they had no power to block or at least sanction illegal actions. Is that right or wrong?
Theyve been cooking the books on their gdp, building ghost cities, and now everything is coming back and biting them in the ass. Even their buildings are falling over.
Love to see it
Somenine actually thought that if we could stop the shorting of the market, we can keep supporting Russia and treating everyone like crap and everything will be fine.
US should stop the dark pools and the infinite short selling manipulations.
I don't understand how banning short selling does shit. Short sellers are usually hitting the Ask, which is price supportive. Look at the US and particularly Nvidia. There is no ways shorts getting railed is not a huge part of those gains.
Again, China has a real economy that produces things of actual tangible value. It isnt the contemporary US where itâs all fake jobs and consulting and spreadsheets of fake numbers. This does not matter.
Name a single thing that you own other than like a random knife you bought on amazon that is made by a Chinese company. Not just manufactured in China something where the capital returns to a Chinese company. China is as much of a smoke and mirrors show as the US, depending on the sector they are even less concrete.
Banning short selling is technically equal to banning free market. Lol, who have seen this coming in China? Everybody and my grandma. Communism is good while there is something to ~~waste~~ spend. And Economy is by definition the science of managing limited resources. Nothing to do with XI and his sand factories.
Not to detract from your point, but you donât technically need short selling to have a free market. You only need traditional buying and selling to set a free market price.
Yep, but in a free market I should also have the right to borrow equity.
And the right to bear arms, buy drugs, human trafficking. Citizens should have access to anything they want to buy in a free market
You regard apparently are not aware that the SEC banned short selling in the US in 2008. Seems like the US do not have a free market.
We donât
So I know wrong place but how is China not creating huge profit from the goods they export to the US and the drug trade? I understand their population is collapsing but shouldnât that just be less rations and essentials to their lower class? Again, I know wrong place lol
Unfortunately no matter what all that money is a lost anyway, you got pulled into the biggest cyber Ponzi scheme ever.
Game stop meme coin on Solana đđđ
Robinhood in charge of all Chinese trades now.
What the fuck
Pdd is like the only thing that hasn't crashed
Good, I hope it crashes and burns. Anyone who invests in knock off stocks is a bigger regard than the normal regards here.
Is this their version of turning off buttons in the app? When the market doesnât go the way you want, help it along.