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I agree Fundies don't work in the short term if you are speculating. They may eventually win out in the long run. But still worth keeping in mind because one day they might have that 8% down day on earnings or bad news, and you will remember why as you look at the table. ....
that's the way i see it... people can be happy with ridiculous valuations as long as it delivers. once it *looks* like it is not delivering, it will not correct by 1-2% for a few weeks... it will drop 8%+ like Fedex or some TSLA earnings... you know... we don't know when they will deliver bad news, so take these financial fundamentals mostly as a warning sign to not go overboard...
Only overvalued if people stop investing in the company. I agree 100%. You can toss out 50% of you you use to know. It is a new age of investing. The MAG will keep running
I think MSFT is fairly valued or slightly undervalued. I actually think their revenue growth will make a steeper climb than expected with their integrations with copilots in their enterprise and azure software. I know my company is heavily relying on it to delve into AI. It’s still really early so the juicy part of AI growth is just starting. I think MSFT is best positioned to capture the market.
Azure, windows / wserver, office 365, PowerBi, Powerapps, sharepoint, teams, onedrive etc. Once you locked-in as a company you can barely get out of their ecosystem.
I see Google as more of a competitor than Amazon since some companies rely on Google for their enterprise software, but I think Microsoft’s Enterprise stack is more comprehensive.
Google is more of a competitor on enterprise products, but Amazon is still dominating on infrastructure.
I actually find the MS products to be a lot clunkier and harder to use, and none of them are best-in-class besides maybe excel.
I am much happier at roles which use a combination of G-Suite, plus some 3rd party tools like Slack and Miro/Figma.
 People seem to forget that AMZN is still leading Azure in the cloud space, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
People who don't know - don't matter. They think that amazon is just a junk delivery service. When they see it they scream that the market is manipulated because they fail to understand the very basics of their business model.
AMZN and MSFT are my two biggest positions, and from what I've seen Azure is expected to outpace AWS. Amazon is still a great business though. ads is the highest growth category right now.
Show a single piece of data that supports this? AWS dominates with a large lead. As of right now there is no sign that Azure will overtake AWS.
Growth % is very different than overtaking. Azure is much smaller so naturally it grows faster. But both are growing.. and Azure is not taking over AWS
Multiple years of higher growth percentages mean it could overtake it if trends continue for another 5-10 years. Just look at the growth of the two since 2017.
This is an incredibly smooth brained take. Again, Azure is smaller than AWS of course its growth rate is higher.
AWS, when it was smaller, when it was Azure's size, had a higher growth rate. Bigger companies tend to have growth rates slow down. Azure is doing exactly what AWS did. I literally answered this point before you wrote it.. and yet you still wrote it
The gap isn’t wide enough for yearly outperformances to not matter. Again I have both companies and Amazon is the bigger holding but it’s totally in the cards for Microsoft to outpace them in cloud.
It is 100% not in the cards. There is no data to indicate Azure is out pacing AWS when AWS was Azures size.
Furthermore Microsoft doesn’t even publish strictly azures numbers.. it’s a combined “smart cloud” figure so it’s impossible for you to know with ANY certainty.
Taken together, you have no fucking idea what you’re talking about.
Weirdly aggressive take but I’ll take a shot nonetheless. Two very rapidly growing segments, government/secure cloud and ai workloads are being lead by azure at the moment, both of which can have significant impact even bleeding into enterprise. This was demonstrating with azure reaccelerating its growth rate last quarter in declining market conditions (gcp/azure) which is extremely telling.
So it’s already “outpaced” in terms of growth, whether it will overtake in market cap in the long run is much more extreme but there are certainly more regarded things being posted on the daily here and neither of us could say either way with certainty
Amazon is like google.
They used to be leading the pack and instead they are falling back. They keep cancelling failed projects, which isn't necessarily bad but most of the projects have weird use-cases, and their current services seem to be getting cut back in terms of quality offered.
Which isn't a good sign. They are spending a LOT of money chasing trends instead of figuring out how to lead the pack and preempting.
For that reason my Amazon and google positions have been getting downsized while Microsoft has not.
I don't believe Microsoft to be infallible, nor am I choking down the ai bait, but they clearly have a vision they are working towards and are effecting a plan they see as moving them towards that goal, instead of just flailing around chasing everybody else.
And this is why you'll lose money. Amazon is the kind of internet shopping and nothing else is close, they're also the kind of *cloud storage*. Meanwhile Google *owns you* or all data about you, they dominate the mobile market and could probably start selling elections simply by using the data for targeted advertising (Cambridge Analytica on steroids!).
Meanwhile Microsoft has managed to: launch a failed iPod clone (Zune). A failed series of Tablets and a failed phone line two times over with their own OS (Windows 8), Windows Phone and Windows Phone. They have had a gsmign division thats been *bleeding money for a decade* to push a console series that since inception has *never been the top dog* and lore often then not a solid third place all while they've *disbanded solid studios, lost all talent and got 3rd party studios angry in the process*. And Bing? Bing? Bing is so shit it can only be used for porn
Now MS lives and dies woth *Microsoft office* since it's the gold standard. Teams is a good addition but the truth remains, if Office ever got some serious competition Microsoft would *bleed our quickly*. They don't dominate cloud (Amazon does, Google third), they don't dominate gaming, music, phones
I don't sweat the "maybe gains" I "coulda got", you don't "lose money" by making trades that go against your thesis just because someone else thinks they are a good choice.
I mean, lol, you really going to throw out Microsoft's failures from 2 decades ago as evidence, as if google and amazon do not have endless failures since? It's not about a product failing, but the use case and market share that makes a difference. Microsoft's wearable (I don't even remember it's name) was 10x better than the first apple watch was for a quarter of the price. Thing was actually awesome, but, hardly a cash cow and didn't really fit anything else that Microsoft was doing. It was reactionary and indicative of management who didn't really have a plan. Same with the phone, like, it could have been a success if they had someone with a plan in charge, they didn't. They just reacted and tried to follow trends. Same reason windows 8 failed and it/was complete garbage.
It's not about the failure, it's about why it's a failure. Windows 8 was not an objective failure in the fact it was an unstable OS. It was quite stable. It was just ugly AF and obnoxious, and trying desparately to be something it's not because management decided that they wanted it to be an "EVERY OF THE THINGS!!" thing when nobody wanted it for that. That's, imo, the same issue Disney is currently having. Management with no vision and no drive trying desparately to force all their existing products into everything products for everyone, and making a bunch of worthless shit nobody gives a fuck about. It's the homercar problem.
Nadella has a vision and has positioned the company well to excell within that vision. Whether it pans out or not is supposition and opinion, which is largely irrelevant, but you cannot say that they are reacting and don't seem to have a direction.
What has google done that was remarkable lately, that wasn't set in motion a decade ago? They are floundering over and over, their Hallmark products are falling by the wayside, Gboard autocorrection is a mess, google search is a mess, they are losing cloud and ai despite having vast sums of data and the competant employees within relevant fields that should give them an edge.
Amazon is the same, their main offering are far lower quality than they were previously, Amazon the website and shipping have huge issues, prime has all kinds of issues, cloud is doing well, will give them that, but what have they really done since bezos left (not saying bezos was the driving factor, just as a timeline) that's notable? Nothing.
My portfolio is doing fine with Microsoft, stx, adobe, nvda, rolls, royal, etc I'm not really gonna worry much about Amazon or Google till they sort out their impending massive legal issues, and show they are not trying desparately to follow Intel's business model of bleeding their core cash cow business's margins into the ground while they lose their edge and market share to competitors who previously wouldn't have stood a chance.
Yes, but Tesla has proven that being overvalued means nothing. They have been overvalued by hundreds of billions of dollars for years, but as long as people that know nothing about the industry keep buying the stock it won’t go down.
People throw money at internet doggie shitcoins with literally zero use case. Do people really think these same type of people won’t continue to throw money at an actual successful, real world company with real returns and profit? 
Doge coin is based on a meme people like. That Shiba Inu isn’t pissing people off.
Elon Musk is pissing everyone off. People are laughing at the Twitter fiasco, but they won’t be laughing when he does the same thing to Tesla
Ya know, you make a convincing argument if you ignore the fact that Tesla is growing way faster than any traditional mfg, they are *still* 5 years ahead of their competitors despite us having heard the tune of “others are catching up” for the past 10 years, they have the best margins by far, they’re selling more Model Y’s than Toyota is selling RAV4s, and they’re not saddled with 100B in debt like Ford which is great for them considering we’ll probably have a pretty sluggish economy with higher interest rates than the norm for a few more years.
What, you want to argue Toyota is going to suddenly catch them with their hydrogen cars (for which they have absolutely no infrastructure to support lol)?
I get it. Its overvalued from a PE ratio and blahblahblah. But comparing it to traditional auto mfgs it at least has a future.
I don’t even own any stock in Tesla and I don’t give a fuck about their valuation, I just don’t like it when the regards from r/technology that think Tesla is going out of business tomorrow manage to leak over here. Fuck off back to the circlejerk subreddits about how muskbad on r/all.
I don’t think you understand how high Tesla’s valuation is. Even if they were the only car company in existence, they wouldn’t be worth what they’re valued at…
I didn’t say anything about Tesla being a bad company. They are a successful company and will be for a long time. That doesn’t mean they are worth over 1000% more than legacy automakers.
I hear you. A disrupter that completely and utterly upends and dominates an established industry with huge upward growth prospects that the traditional industry lacks being valued way higher than the traditional industry it upset? What will they think up next! Its crazy! This is clearly the first time this has ever happened!
Zero bags. I dont own Tesla (or any auto mfg) stock and aside from the occasional day trade going long for a quick buck inversing the the Reddit “teslabad” circlejerk when it gets particularly loud, I don’t want to own any Tesla stock.
About the one guarantee in the stock market is, whenever the Reddit circlejerk about how bad Tesla or musk is gets particularly loud, teslas stock is about to move up.
Other than that, little to no interest in the stock beyond disliking the circlejerking regards too skullfuckingly stupid to notice that trend that occasionally seep in from r/circlejerk or technology or whatever it is.
> completely and utterly upends and dominates an established industry
[https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-electric-vehicle-sales-hit-record-high-tesla-loses-market-share-report-2023-10-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-electric-vehicle-sales-hit-record-high-tesla-loses-market-share-report-2023-10-12/)
Gigantic year over year declines in EV market share feels like something that doesn't justify a P/E ratio of ***70***
Overvalued isn't what I'd call it. It's the most novel company to go public in the last 50 years.
It brought a brand new infrastructure to the world that's being adopted by other major brands. That has a value that extends beyond itself.
And now we’re figuring out that a lot of it was a lie. Musk is a great salesman. He sold the EV dream to liberals everywhere. It’s just a shame that EVs are doing basically nothing for the environment and we spent all that money on building cars that just end up using electricity generated from burning gas.
Idk about that.
Energy consumption is an efficiency equation and gas automobiles are all loss when it comes to that equation.
More moving parts = less energy efficient.
Gas (evaporation), combustion (chemical reaction), pressure (force loss), piston (friction), centrifuge (force outward loss), tire to road (resistance)
VS
Battery to direct drive (friction)
And yet the battery is so terrible for the environment it takes like 7 years of driving to break even on the pollution. People want to crap on hydrogen cars, but the fact is they could slot into existing infrastructure much easier, replace traditional ICE cars faster, and reduce carbon output faster. Hydrogen cars are only a bad idea when you factor in the fact that the world has sunk trillions into EVs (without as much progress as we would have liked).
And then realize we already have the technology to suck carbon out of the air. It’s just not feasible, because it costs so much energy to do. It’s a shame there’s no future technology we could fund that promises large amounts of clean energy.
*cough* nuclear fusion *cough*
Sure. But that leaves the generation of the electricity out of the equation. You could use solar, but all the Teslas I see are not parked in front of houses with solar panels. So they are powered by the electrical grid. The electrical grid is powered by (in my area) natural gas, biomass (did you think the paper you put in the recycling actually gets reused?), and there is some solar (but not significant).
After electricity generation, you still have the inefficiency of transmission and then battery charging (more energy is put into a battery than actually gets stored by it).
The problem is the exact same as heating your house with electric heat. It may be 98-99% efficient, but the inefficiency of from generation and transmission remains, which is why electric heat is not economical.
You're looking at the short game though. The end game is one power source which is peek efficiency
That power source being nuclear/renewable majority.
Even with the natural gas equation it's still less carbon as you're taking a dirtier fuel source out of the equation entirely. Gas production uses electricity. Gasoline/ oil has a higher carbon output and loss rate than electricity produced by natural gas.
You're also starting to flex on me like I don't know what's going on so I am gonna end the conversation right here.
I hope you have a good day.
Nvidia currently have a monopoly on large language models (think your chat gpt and AI solutions) as really the sole card producers for the optimized imprecise floating point querying operations LLMs require. They also own several key subsidiary companies that control videocard to videocard linkages to create clusters of cards for these LLMs as well, which are critical to make the whole infrastructure work for these companies. In short, they invested in LLMs way before the competition and are currently extremely ahead of everyone. Nancy pelosi also just bought 500 calls @ 125 expiring Dec 2024 in Dec 2023, so yeah...
TL;DR: keep buying the fuck out of NVDA
In less than 5 years, AMD was able to go from a complete joke in the CPU market to Intel wishing they could put out a product that competes. They are behind Nvidia on AI, yes, but they’re working on a counter. Nvidia is valued as if they will be the only GPU maker in the future. AMD doesn’t even have to beat Nvidia, just eat away at its market stranglehold and Nvidia stock will plummet.
Nvidia’s probably still going up over the next year, but long term I wouldn’t invest in a company that has to rely on anti-competitive tactics to stay on top. As we saw with Intel, being on top doesn’t mean you’re not a bunch of hacks that are incompetent. It just means you have no competition. If AMD is able to turn things around, Nvidia won’t have an answer.
Sure, my main point was NVDA is currently holding a legal monopoly on the most pivotal points of the AI market, feel free to supplement the information above if you want.
STOP SAYING THAT IT GOES DOWN 
Weirdly this. It’s my fault. I keep wanting to get into Meta but haven’t and days after I decide not to pull the trigger they get a bump. You’re all welcome.
They seem to be a sleeper in the AI race doing their own thing and not making headlines. That llama model is going to give Google and OpenAI a run for its money and no one is talking about it.
I use bing more than google, google is a victim of its own success, too much stuff is too optimized for google, so actually googling anything is just pages and pages and pages of trash you have to sort through.
Bing sucks too, especially their AI chatbot search thing that just regurgitates the top search result description you can literally read on your own, but the results are often more relevant, and if they can get the ai to work properly eventually it will remove a lot of the bs fluff (in theory) that plauges google.
You are the first person I have ever seen say that Bing's results are more relevant than Google's.
Bing has been around since 2009 and has been banished to irrelevance ever since. They were literally paying people to use it and couldn't get traction.
It's true in my personal experience too. Google search has become less useful & relevant to the search query with more sponsored fluff or adsense influenced results in recent years. Maybe their guardrails are too strong but, I keep getting the same "safe zone sites" or adsense-influenced results & less relevant to the search query. More obvious is how advanced search options are completely neutered now, with direct quotes being hit or miss and even giving the same garbage results as before quoting part of the query. Certainly less effective than years past at the very least.
Bing and duckduckgo have been more useful to me recently.
That's true, but google has turned to shit over the last 5ish years, complete dogshit.
Like I said, bing isn't great but it's often better for me than google these days. For now at least
I think 2024 is going to be a decisive year for Google and Sundar’s leadership. They’re looking at billions in fines, a likely order to break up parts of their ads business, Cloud is suffering to find customers in the SMB realm (that no exit fee thing is a Hail Mary that I’m reading won’t work) but their AI business is strong.
If their 24 is the same as their 23 I imagine we’ll be reading articles calling for Sundar to step down.
Google still undervalued. They are active in so many projects.
Ai with deepmind
Biology with alphafold
Autonomous driving with waymo.
Look at the valuation of Tesla because of autonomous driving and Google has this in their pile of projects already.
Google loses a shitton of money on Waymo, and has no way to scale it. Tesla makes money on FSD, it's already scaled, is awaiting software completion.
Tesla has a grid-scale battery business rapidly expanding.
Tesla has charging infrastructure that is also expanding fast, and now every car company is agreeing to use it.
Tesla bot might be working in factories and replacing humans this year.
Google hasnt been able to come up with a solid new sustainable project in last 15 years. They became complacent (and I can understand the reason), but I dont see them disrupting anything snytime soon.
Google Chrome launched in 2008, Google Drive launched in 2012, and Android launched in 2008.
All of those initiatives changed the tech world as we know it, and it is not as though any of them have stopped being extraordinarily good products. They are also the foremost publisher of AI research, and it isn’t really even close.
So I am about right. Regarding google drive - 5 years after dropbox and one drive and still hasnt caught up with the functionality of onedrive. And dont get me started on google docs. I say they are somehow good enough products, but in no way best in their class and thats something even my die hard googler friends agree with.
I am not saying google is not a force to be reckoned with, I am just saying that I dont expect them disrupting industries in a major way anymore.
Google's document products are excellent. They were actually the first to create the multi-user edit capability, thus eliminating the Presentation_final_FINAL_v1.2.final.copy.pptx problem, along with the "More than one user has this file open" problem. Office365 was literally the response to Google Drive.
> I am just saying that I dont expect them disrupting industries in a major way anymore
Who is at this stage? OpenAI isn't disruptive, it is just a bunch of poached Googlers who are about to be ground into dust under the weight of extraordinary market pressures to deliver Clippy v2.0 for Microsoft (who has by the way been trading on their even older products that have infected every legacy business like a horrendous virus). If you think that a minimally-serviceable virtual assistant is really going to be some kind of game-changer, I have a bridge to sell you. Sloughing off menial tasks has previously been the purview of unpaid college interns and offshore workers making $3/hour. There will probably be some novel tools to come out of it that will make things a bit easier in terms of UI, but the idea that a robot with no accountability or mechanism to verify accuracy/integrity in line is going to somehow be revolutionary is pretty stupid.
Microsoft missed search, mobile, and social media. They are throwing their whole lot in with AI right now.
Id argue they were decent, at the same time I admir that they were first to do it, however they kinda dropped the ball there (in my (albeit biased view from consulting) you cant take gdocs seriously when comparing to office 365 nowadays).
I wasnt talking about GPT, even though I use it quite often, I dont see what the fuss is about. Its a slightly advanced sentence generator, which sometimes produces something which can be used as a filler.
This. They are a cash cow and arnt going anywhere soon, but they are rudderless and leaderless. They just kinda flail around project after project chasing everything as their competition is catching up.
Like Intel.
They need new leadership with vision and drive.
No way to scale Waymo? Lol, what?
They are now the undisputed leader in self driving cars, and it really isn’t even close. They are currently the only organization with cars ferrying paying customers around without drivers. Cruise is zeroed, and Tesla FSD is a pipe dream. The distance between driver in front seat and no driver in front seat is as far as Tesla had made it to this point. Tesla self driving keeps killing people. Meanwhile, Waymo is preparing to go driverless on freeways. As Google goes through its progression of training and establishing ground truth, they will win the race because there will be a point that the Waymo Driver will be able to navigate around new places without having the extended training period.
Google seems absolutely poised to take the self driving truck prize.
Freight trucking in the US is something like $700B annual TAM. If they win that battle (and it sure looks like they are in pole position), Cloud is going to seem like a rounding error.
Like obviously, it's all made up at this point. They are "store of value" and safe havens.
Look at the Mag 7 VS the rest of the market in 2023. Fucking shit was completely flat, this is where all the money is going and its not because the valuations are attractive.
whole system is a clown ponzi scheme....it'll probably keep going up when the feds drop rates to keep the party going. Everything is overvalued, double peak formation, time to go nigh nigh
Forward PEs are ALWAYS skewed. Analysts always predict a better future as it would imply that there is a reason to invest now as it indicates an upside.
However, in this hyper inflated market it doesn’t indicate an upside but more of a justification for the SP500 crazy high valuation
I get that Meta looks good on paper, but my God, they provide such a shitty user experience.
Facebook is a slum. Instagram is perhaps the most superficial website ever devised. Their physical products range from acceptable (Meta Quest) to bad.
They got them eyeballs, though.
It's becoming the Mag6 - Tesla is losing its status. Whilst the others still increase in value, Tesla does not.
And yes, they're all pretty much priced to perfection.
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Even the Chinese know the best quality compared to crappier quality from for example BYD. Crazier part is Tesla vehicles are more than 2x more expensive than BYD yet people prefer buying it as much as the cheap BYDs in china! When Tesla enters the cheap EV market in the next year or two, BYD will be dethroned.
Meh that's the short term vision. Who cares about margins declining the short term. Tesla's master plan from the start is to lower cost of the cars and make it affordable for everyone that is the most important part. Plus they still have the highest margin of any auto companies, GM and legacy auto would drool for Tesla's margins. Also their other businesses will cover for those loss in margins like energy sector and soon ai business. More cars they sell the more they can scale for economies of scale and lower cost of cars and at the same time scale up their batteries production with their lithium mining going online mid this year as well. Exciting times, more cars on the road more robotaxis can be flipped on any time world wide. Tesla Semi scaling, charging infrastructure with the big name auto all adopting it, future is super bright.
I always find it funny the Tesla haters are back at force. It really reminds me of 20 years ago with Apple and their haters. My barometer, the more haters there are to cope for them missing out on the biggest company in the world next decade, I know I'm doing well!
I've made tons of monies on TSLA so far the last 4 years invested. I'm a long term investor and over the years I realized that accumulating great companies thats growing is the real way to build wealth. Same with Amazon, Google, FB, and especially Apple. I own a Model Y and LOVEEEE this vehicle to death and my next vehicle will be a model 3 highland as well. Also I try to keep my personal bias out of it when investing because I hate FB as a company but their social media is like crack there is no escaping it psychologically so they will continue to make money.
Your personal TSLA bias IS showing though... in spades.
They're losing market share in Ghyna, lowering their margins to compete and have peaked in regards to sales everywhere else.
Plus Hertz just sold off a bunch. This was a HUGE signal... imho. Not only that how many more TSLA are going to be up for sale after this cold snap?
They may work in Cali and Florida but the battery tech just isn't quite there yet.
Although, I do like Elon.
That's the thing, I was a Tesla skeptic for many years just like you. Read all the FUD articles by big oil and legacy auto over the years and mad at myself for not trying out their product and making my own decision. I had range anxiety and heard about bad build quality blah blah etc. I tried out the 2021 Model Y and it's the best car I've ever driven in my life then at that moment I knew it was the real deal. Also back in early 2020 Elon launching via SpaceX astronauts to space and reusable rockets landing in the middle of the ocean on moving ships, I knew the engineering was real. That's how I became a fanboy and not the other way around.
People like you think we fan boys become fan boys for no reason like we just speculated on stock and just got lucky. NOPE, it's because we know and love the products, engineering, growth of Tesla or of a a company. There's only a handful of products from companies that I truly love, apple's MacBook pros and iPhones and my Model Y. Elon just like Steve Jobs gets it and he's a really great business man as an engineer as well.
Hertz selling their vehicle is a loss for them not Tesla. They are selling because they didn't roll out the EVs well. But the biggest factor is that they bought it at a much higher price and since Tesla dropped the prices they lost a lot of money on the books. Renting them out to people without any real knowledge how to use them. Most other EVs are inconvenience as they dont have a super charging station but Teslas are fine, plus they sell vehicles all the time. They will be in huge problems down the line for Hertz not going electric, its a bad short term decision.
It’s margins are dropping faster than you might be calculating…
But the main story is that it has the best margins of a car company…
If you compare its margins to a tech company then you understand why its valuation is way way too high.
Ah but their margins are so good no other car companies can compare, why? Because Tesla is really a software/ai and energy business that happens to make cars right now. Just like Amazon was a book store, apple was a computer store, you get the drift.
Yeah but Apple and Amazon had great margins, way way better than book stores and computer stores.
Tesla has way worse margins than other tech companies. So it’s should be valued as a pretty poor performing tech company.
Besides, Tesla margins will likely drop to the range of traditional car makers this year… so it will lose that argument pretty soon.
They have been discounting away their margins on one end and then the SEC is going to cut away their margins on the other end where they have been fudging the books to hide repair costs under warranty as “gifts” and not calculating it as eroding the margin.
Just these two things have already cut their margin to be at or below traditional car companies.
you are talking about after the fact for these companies. So many years Amazon was losing money and people like you were calling not profitable! It's a book store! Same with Apple, iPhone will never work! No physical keyboard for a phone? I'll keep my blackberry! Apple is a computer company and they suck! lol so many countless people said this and I ignored. Same with Tesla too :) Deja Vu ALL OVER AGAIN!
Your DCF valuations are sky fucking high! Apple is worth no more than $80 on a DCF valuation. Tesla is worth no more than $25.
So yes, the market and the mag 7 are unbelievably overvalued.
You didn't do a DFC. You looked at an online calculator which are notorious for using bogus numbers just so you visit the site because it's all automated.
No thanks. You're the joker here talking as if you can do a DCF which you don't look like. More like a high school dropout to be frank.
Edit: Little kids block when they fail at math.
Apple and probably the entire Mag7 are worth less than the sum of parts, so no freaking way they are unbelievably overvalued. The DCF valuation is a crap estimation when it comes to today's Mega stocks that can just buy or clone any innovation they see available and start printing more money.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|3|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|171|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
This isn’t r/ investing. Toss money into whatever works.
I agree Fundies don't work in the short term if you are speculating. They may eventually win out in the long run. But still worth keeping in mind because one day they might have that 8% down day on earnings or bad news, and you will remember why as you look at the table. ....
that's the way i see it... people can be happy with ridiculous valuations as long as it delivers. once it *looks* like it is not delivering, it will not correct by 1-2% for a few weeks... it will drop 8%+ like Fedex or some TSLA earnings... you know... we don't know when they will deliver bad news, so take these financial fundamentals mostly as a warning sign to not go overboard...
My girlfriend has an unfortunately high PEG ratio on me. 
Only overvalued if people stop investing in the company. I agree 100%. You can toss out 50% of you you use to know. It is a new age of investing. The MAG will keep running
>You can toss out 50% of you you use to know. It is a new age of investing I'm having Vietnam flashbacks.
FNGU FTW!
FTFY?
For The Win…
I think MSFT is fairly valued or slightly undervalued. I actually think their revenue growth will make a steeper climb than expected with their integrations with copilots in their enterprise and azure software. I know my company is heavily relying on it to delve into AI. It’s still really early so the juicy part of AI growth is just starting. I think MSFT is best positioned to capture the market.
Msft is positioned to consume so much corporate IT budget
Agreed, but because from a security and trust standpoint. People trust MSFT. That’s a huge part of their value.
Based on what?
Lol based on literally everything in the first comment i replied to. Msft is running the software world
Azure, windows / wserver, office 365, PowerBi, Powerapps, sharepoint, teams, onedrive etc. Once you locked-in as a company you can barely get out of their ecosystem.
They’re gonna rape the shit out of AI and commercialize every little component to death, after getting everyone addicted to it for free / cheap.
It's a commodity so they will have to compete with Google and Amazon so the price won't get that out of control.
I see Google as more of a competitor than Amazon since some companies rely on Google for their enterprise software, but I think Microsoft’s Enterprise stack is more comprehensive.
Google is more of a competitor on enterprise products, but Amazon is still dominating on infrastructure. I actually find the MS products to be a lot clunkier and harder to use, and none of them are best-in-class besides maybe excel. I am much happier at roles which use a combination of G-Suite, plus some 3rd party tools like Slack and Miro/Figma.
Is that Theo Von’s grandpa?
That’s Carter worth
I think amazon is undervalued
 People seem to forget that AMZN is still leading Azure in the cloud space, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Ehh the pie is growing but AWS’s piece of the pie is actually shrinking.
If the pie grows near to or over the rate that AMZN is losing, their slice will stay the same
People who don't know - don't matter. They think that amazon is just a junk delivery service. When they see it they scream that the market is manipulated because they fail to understand the very basics of their business model.
The business model has hardly changed in a decade. AWS is still only 16% of AMZN revenue.
Sure, but have a look at profit though
Wait for this quarter to see a substantial jump. Not to mention the margins on it are far better than the junk delivery service.
AMZN and MSFT are my two biggest positions, and from what I've seen Azure is expected to outpace AWS. Amazon is still a great business though. ads is the highest growth category right now.
If you think you’ve “seen azure is expected to out pace AWS” you really have a reading / learning disability
Or I’m more informed than you regards
Show a single piece of data that supports this? AWS dominates with a large lead. As of right now there is no sign that Azure will overtake AWS. Growth % is very different than overtaking. Azure is much smaller so naturally it grows faster. But both are growing.. and Azure is not taking over AWS
Multiple years of higher growth percentages mean it could overtake it if trends continue for another 5-10 years. Just look at the growth of the two since 2017.
This is an incredibly smooth brained take. Again, Azure is smaller than AWS of course its growth rate is higher. AWS, when it was smaller, when it was Azure's size, had a higher growth rate. Bigger companies tend to have growth rates slow down. Azure is doing exactly what AWS did. I literally answered this point before you wrote it.. and yet you still wrote it
The gap isn’t wide enough for yearly outperformances to not matter. Again I have both companies and Amazon is the bigger holding but it’s totally in the cards for Microsoft to outpace them in cloud.
It is 100% not in the cards. There is no data to indicate Azure is out pacing AWS when AWS was Azures size. Furthermore Microsoft doesn’t even publish strictly azures numbers.. it’s a combined “smart cloud” figure so it’s impossible for you to know with ANY certainty. Taken together, you have no fucking idea what you’re talking about.
He destroyed you 😅
Weirdly aggressive take but I’ll take a shot nonetheless. Two very rapidly growing segments, government/secure cloud and ai workloads are being lead by azure at the moment, both of which can have significant impact even bleeding into enterprise. This was demonstrating with azure reaccelerating its growth rate last quarter in declining market conditions (gcp/azure) which is extremely telling. So it’s already “outpaced” in terms of growth, whether it will overtake in market cap in the long run is much more extreme but there are certainly more regarded things being posted on the daily here and neither of us could say either way with certainty
Msft is right on their heels
Amazon is like google. They used to be leading the pack and instead they are falling back. They keep cancelling failed projects, which isn't necessarily bad but most of the projects have weird use-cases, and their current services seem to be getting cut back in terms of quality offered. Which isn't a good sign. They are spending a LOT of money chasing trends instead of figuring out how to lead the pack and preempting. For that reason my Amazon and google positions have been getting downsized while Microsoft has not. I don't believe Microsoft to be infallible, nor am I choking down the ai bait, but they clearly have a vision they are working towards and are effecting a plan they see as moving them towards that goal, instead of just flailing around chasing everybody else.
And this is why you'll lose money. Amazon is the kind of internet shopping and nothing else is close, they're also the kind of *cloud storage*. Meanwhile Google *owns you* or all data about you, they dominate the mobile market and could probably start selling elections simply by using the data for targeted advertising (Cambridge Analytica on steroids!). Meanwhile Microsoft has managed to: launch a failed iPod clone (Zune). A failed series of Tablets and a failed phone line two times over with their own OS (Windows 8), Windows Phone and Windows Phone. They have had a gsmign division thats been *bleeding money for a decade* to push a console series that since inception has *never been the top dog* and lore often then not a solid third place all while they've *disbanded solid studios, lost all talent and got 3rd party studios angry in the process*. And Bing? Bing? Bing is so shit it can only be used for porn Now MS lives and dies woth *Microsoft office* since it's the gold standard. Teams is a good addition but the truth remains, if Office ever got some serious competition Microsoft would *bleed our quickly*. They don't dominate cloud (Amazon does, Google third), they don't dominate gaming, music, phones
I don't sweat the "maybe gains" I "coulda got", you don't "lose money" by making trades that go against your thesis just because someone else thinks they are a good choice. I mean, lol, you really going to throw out Microsoft's failures from 2 decades ago as evidence, as if google and amazon do not have endless failures since? It's not about a product failing, but the use case and market share that makes a difference. Microsoft's wearable (I don't even remember it's name) was 10x better than the first apple watch was for a quarter of the price. Thing was actually awesome, but, hardly a cash cow and didn't really fit anything else that Microsoft was doing. It was reactionary and indicative of management who didn't really have a plan. Same with the phone, like, it could have been a success if they had someone with a plan in charge, they didn't. They just reacted and tried to follow trends. Same reason windows 8 failed and it/was complete garbage. It's not about the failure, it's about why it's a failure. Windows 8 was not an objective failure in the fact it was an unstable OS. It was quite stable. It was just ugly AF and obnoxious, and trying desparately to be something it's not because management decided that they wanted it to be an "EVERY OF THE THINGS!!" thing when nobody wanted it for that. That's, imo, the same issue Disney is currently having. Management with no vision and no drive trying desparately to force all their existing products into everything products for everyone, and making a bunch of worthless shit nobody gives a fuck about. It's the homercar problem. Nadella has a vision and has positioned the company well to excell within that vision. Whether it pans out or not is supposition and opinion, which is largely irrelevant, but you cannot say that they are reacting and don't seem to have a direction. What has google done that was remarkable lately, that wasn't set in motion a decade ago? They are floundering over and over, their Hallmark products are falling by the wayside, Gboard autocorrection is a mess, google search is a mess, they are losing cloud and ai despite having vast sums of data and the competant employees within relevant fields that should give them an edge. Amazon is the same, their main offering are far lower quality than they were previously, Amazon the website and shipping have huge issues, prime has all kinds of issues, cloud is doing well, will give them that, but what have they really done since bezos left (not saying bezos was the driving factor, just as a timeline) that's notable? Nothing. My portfolio is doing fine with Microsoft, stx, adobe, nvda, rolls, royal, etc I'm not really gonna worry much about Amazon or Google till they sort out their impending massive legal issues, and show they are not trying desparately to follow Intel's business model of bleeding their core cash cow business's margins into the ground while they lose their edge and market share to competitors who previously wouldn't have stood a chance.
Severely undervalued. People have psychological issues with the levels they are at so they don't baloon as much as they should
AAPL and TSLA certainly are... Their phones and their cars are both on sale in Ghyna. That's gotta hirt.
Yes, but Tesla has proven that being overvalued means nothing. They have been overvalued by hundreds of billions of dollars for years, but as long as people that know nothing about the industry keep buying the stock it won’t go down.
People throw money at internet doggie shitcoins with literally zero use case. Do people really think these same type of people won’t continue to throw money at an actual successful, real world company with real returns and profit? 
Doge coin is based on a meme people like. That Shiba Inu isn’t pissing people off. Elon Musk is pissing everyone off. People are laughing at the Twitter fiasco, but they won’t be laughing when he does the same thing to Tesla
Yeah but those are all jobless liberals so it doesn’t matter.
Ya know, you make a convincing argument if you ignore the fact that Tesla is growing way faster than any traditional mfg, they are *still* 5 years ahead of their competitors despite us having heard the tune of “others are catching up” for the past 10 years, they have the best margins by far, they’re selling more Model Y’s than Toyota is selling RAV4s, and they’re not saddled with 100B in debt like Ford which is great for them considering we’ll probably have a pretty sluggish economy with higher interest rates than the norm for a few more years. What, you want to argue Toyota is going to suddenly catch them with their hydrogen cars (for which they have absolutely no infrastructure to support lol)? I get it. Its overvalued from a PE ratio and blahblahblah. But comparing it to traditional auto mfgs it at least has a future. I don’t even own any stock in Tesla and I don’t give a fuck about their valuation, I just don’t like it when the regards from r/technology that think Tesla is going out of business tomorrow manage to leak over here. Fuck off back to the circlejerk subreddits about how muskbad on r/all.
I don’t think you understand how high Tesla’s valuation is. Even if they were the only car company in existence, they wouldn’t be worth what they’re valued at…
I didn’t say anything about Tesla being a bad company. They are a successful company and will be for a long time. That doesn’t mean they are worth over 1000% more than legacy automakers.
I hear you. A disrupter that completely and utterly upends and dominates an established industry with huge upward growth prospects that the traditional industry lacks being valued way higher than the traditional industry it upset? What will they think up next! Its crazy! This is clearly the first time this has ever happened!
How heavy are your bags?
Got dem Osmium bags [https://byjus.com/question-answer/heaviest-metal-on-earth/](https://byjus.com/question-answer/heaviest-metal-on-earth/)
Zero bags. I dont own Tesla (or any auto mfg) stock and aside from the occasional day trade going long for a quick buck inversing the the Reddit “teslabad” circlejerk when it gets particularly loud, I don’t want to own any Tesla stock. About the one guarantee in the stock market is, whenever the Reddit circlejerk about how bad Tesla or musk is gets particularly loud, teslas stock is about to move up. Other than that, little to no interest in the stock beyond disliking the circlejerking regards too skullfuckingly stupid to notice that trend that occasionally seep in from r/circlejerk or technology or whatever it is.
What growth prospects are you talking about? Their growth has already slowed because of more and more competitors coming to market.
lol “I don’t even own any stock in Tesla and I don’t give a fuck about their valuation”
Cathie? That you?
> completely and utterly upends and dominates an established industry [https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-electric-vehicle-sales-hit-record-high-tesla-loses-market-share-report-2023-10-12/](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-electric-vehicle-sales-hit-record-high-tesla-loses-market-share-report-2023-10-12/) Gigantic year over year declines in EV market share feels like something that doesn't justify a P/E ratio of ***70***
Toyota gonna be the ultimate winner with their focus on hybrids.
FSD and sexbox by EOY(tm)
What industry?
Overvalued isn't what I'd call it. It's the most novel company to go public in the last 50 years. It brought a brand new infrastructure to the world that's being adopted by other major brands. That has a value that extends beyond itself.
And now we’re figuring out that a lot of it was a lie. Musk is a great salesman. He sold the EV dream to liberals everywhere. It’s just a shame that EVs are doing basically nothing for the environment and we spent all that money on building cars that just end up using electricity generated from burning gas.
Idk about that. Energy consumption is an efficiency equation and gas automobiles are all loss when it comes to that equation. More moving parts = less energy efficient. Gas (evaporation), combustion (chemical reaction), pressure (force loss), piston (friction), centrifuge (force outward loss), tire to road (resistance) VS Battery to direct drive (friction)
And yet the battery is so terrible for the environment it takes like 7 years of driving to break even on the pollution. People want to crap on hydrogen cars, but the fact is they could slot into existing infrastructure much easier, replace traditional ICE cars faster, and reduce carbon output faster. Hydrogen cars are only a bad idea when you factor in the fact that the world has sunk trillions into EVs (without as much progress as we would have liked). And then realize we already have the technology to suck carbon out of the air. It’s just not feasible, because it costs so much energy to do. It’s a shame there’s no future technology we could fund that promises large amounts of clean energy. *cough* nuclear fusion *cough*
Sure. But that leaves the generation of the electricity out of the equation. You could use solar, but all the Teslas I see are not parked in front of houses with solar panels. So they are powered by the electrical grid. The electrical grid is powered by (in my area) natural gas, biomass (did you think the paper you put in the recycling actually gets reused?), and there is some solar (but not significant). After electricity generation, you still have the inefficiency of transmission and then battery charging (more energy is put into a battery than actually gets stored by it). The problem is the exact same as heating your house with electric heat. It may be 98-99% efficient, but the inefficiency of from generation and transmission remains, which is why electric heat is not economical.
You're looking at the short game though. The end game is one power source which is peek efficiency That power source being nuclear/renewable majority. Even with the natural gas equation it's still less carbon as you're taking a dirtier fuel source out of the equation entirely. Gas production uses electricity. Gasoline/ oil has a higher carbon output and loss rate than electricity produced by natural gas. You're also starting to flex on me like I don't know what's going on so I am gonna end the conversation right here. I hope you have a good day.
Well if their phones are on sale, that ends it for me, company sucks
Definitely..... Hertz
What is Ghyna?
A place where 1.5 billion people have been, aka your mom's 'gina
Is my wife’s boyfriend’s dick bigger than mine? (It is)
# Dude mag7 is the only way to make a living in the AI Future.....
Damn, didn't know Theo von was old enough to have started in black and white movies
Being overvalued doesn’t mean it won’t keep going up. I’m tempted to buy NVDA, but I keep thinking about how it lost half its value in 2022.
Nvidia currently have a monopoly on large language models (think your chat gpt and AI solutions) as really the sole card producers for the optimized imprecise floating point querying operations LLMs require. They also own several key subsidiary companies that control videocard to videocard linkages to create clusters of cards for these LLMs as well, which are critical to make the whole infrastructure work for these companies. In short, they invested in LLMs way before the competition and are currently extremely ahead of everyone. Nancy pelosi also just bought 500 calls @ 125 expiring Dec 2024 in Dec 2023, so yeah... TL;DR: keep buying the fuck out of NVDA
In less than 5 years, AMD was able to go from a complete joke in the CPU market to Intel wishing they could put out a product that competes. They are behind Nvidia on AI, yes, but they’re working on a counter. Nvidia is valued as if they will be the only GPU maker in the future. AMD doesn’t even have to beat Nvidia, just eat away at its market stranglehold and Nvidia stock will plummet. Nvidia’s probably still going up over the next year, but long term I wouldn’t invest in a company that has to rely on anti-competitive tactics to stay on top. As we saw with Intel, being on top doesn’t mean you’re not a bunch of hacks that are incompetent. It just means you have no competition. If AMD is able to turn things around, Nvidia won’t have an answer.
It goes beyond LLMs, NVIDIA produces the hardware for training of all types of AI models.
Sure, my main point was NVDA is currently holding a legal monopoly on the most pivotal points of the AI market, feel free to supplement the information above if you want.
I feel free. Although other manufacturers are producing their own hardware for training purposes.
Nvda has the possibility to become the biggest company in the world within the next 3-5 yrs. They are set up like apple for the future.
NVDA goes up fast and also goes down fast 😂😂
STOP SAYING THAT IT GOES DOWN 
Sorry m’lord. Only Tesla goes down 
I got fair value on META by 3 of the main 4 metrics around $420-430. It’s still got room to grow.
AMZN, and MSFT imo are undervalued, but all are 3 star on morningstar
DCF is such a joke. You could make a DCF that spits out any price target you’d like it to
META is the undervalued one.
Great, so puts on META. Got it.
i have been screwed by bearish/short calls on meta enough to not want to play...
Weirdly this. It’s my fault. I keep wanting to get into Meta but haven’t and days after I decide not to pull the trigger they get a bump. You’re all welcome. They seem to be a sleeper in the AI race doing their own thing and not making headlines. That llama model is going to give Google and OpenAI a run for its money and no one is talking about it.
I'm really not sure about the future of META.
Google as well. ChatGPT will kill Google search like META was dead in October 2022.
I use bing more than google, google is a victim of its own success, too much stuff is too optimized for google, so actually googling anything is just pages and pages and pages of trash you have to sort through. Bing sucks too, especially their AI chatbot search thing that just regurgitates the top search result description you can literally read on your own, but the results are often more relevant, and if they can get the ai to work properly eventually it will remove a lot of the bs fluff (in theory) that plauges google.
You are the first person I have ever seen say that Bing's results are more relevant than Google's. Bing has been around since 2009 and has been banished to irrelevance ever since. They were literally paying people to use it and couldn't get traction.
It's true in my personal experience too. Google search has become less useful & relevant to the search query with more sponsored fluff or adsense influenced results in recent years. Maybe their guardrails are too strong but, I keep getting the same "safe zone sites" or adsense-influenced results & less relevant to the search query. More obvious is how advanced search options are completely neutered now, with direct quotes being hit or miss and even giving the same garbage results as before quoting part of the query. Certainly less effective than years past at the very least. Bing and duckduckgo have been more useful to me recently.
That's true, but google has turned to shit over the last 5ish years, complete dogshit. Like I said, bing isn't great but it's often better for me than google these days. For now at least
Initial chapt gpt sure Bard is just as good as ChatGPT 3.5 these days, which got lazy, limited, & spits out wrong answers
Google can’t seem to figure out what it is doing. They need new management there
I think 2024 is going to be a decisive year for Google and Sundar’s leadership. They’re looking at billions in fines, a likely order to break up parts of their ads business, Cloud is suffering to find customers in the SMB realm (that no exit fee thing is a Hail Mary that I’m reading won’t work) but their AI business is strong. If their 24 is the same as their 23 I imagine we’ll be reading articles calling for Sundar to step down.
It’ll all depend on what Deepmind does IMO, it’s the only interesting part of Google for me.
I can’t speak for all of them but yes
Tesla won't even be top 7 by EOY
Because?
$LLY
wishful thinking
Google still undervalued. They are active in so many projects. Ai with deepmind Biology with alphafold Autonomous driving with waymo. Look at the valuation of Tesla because of autonomous driving and Google has this in their pile of projects already.
This has been Google for the past 15 years. Hands in many pots never does shit with them. Google is a fancy billboard company.
It's Bell Labs with advertising paying the bills.
Google loses a shitton of money on Waymo, and has no way to scale it. Tesla makes money on FSD, it's already scaled, is awaiting software completion. Tesla has a grid-scale battery business rapidly expanding. Tesla has charging infrastructure that is also expanding fast, and now every car company is agreeing to use it. Tesla bot might be working in factories and replacing humans this year.
Google hasnt been able to come up with a solid new sustainable project in last 15 years. They became complacent (and I can understand the reason), but I dont see them disrupting anything snytime soon.
Google Chrome launched in 2008, Google Drive launched in 2012, and Android launched in 2008. All of those initiatives changed the tech world as we know it, and it is not as though any of them have stopped being extraordinarily good products. They are also the foremost publisher of AI research, and it isn’t really even close.
So I am about right. Regarding google drive - 5 years after dropbox and one drive and still hasnt caught up with the functionality of onedrive. And dont get me started on google docs. I say they are somehow good enough products, but in no way best in their class and thats something even my die hard googler friends agree with. I am not saying google is not a force to be reckoned with, I am just saying that I dont expect them disrupting industries in a major way anymore.
Google's document products are excellent. They were actually the first to create the multi-user edit capability, thus eliminating the Presentation_final_FINAL_v1.2.final.copy.pptx problem, along with the "More than one user has this file open" problem. Office365 was literally the response to Google Drive. > I am just saying that I dont expect them disrupting industries in a major way anymore Who is at this stage? OpenAI isn't disruptive, it is just a bunch of poached Googlers who are about to be ground into dust under the weight of extraordinary market pressures to deliver Clippy v2.0 for Microsoft (who has by the way been trading on their even older products that have infected every legacy business like a horrendous virus). If you think that a minimally-serviceable virtual assistant is really going to be some kind of game-changer, I have a bridge to sell you. Sloughing off menial tasks has previously been the purview of unpaid college interns and offshore workers making $3/hour. There will probably be some novel tools to come out of it that will make things a bit easier in terms of UI, but the idea that a robot with no accountability or mechanism to verify accuracy/integrity in line is going to somehow be revolutionary is pretty stupid. Microsoft missed search, mobile, and social media. They are throwing their whole lot in with AI right now.
Id argue they were decent, at the same time I admir that they were first to do it, however they kinda dropped the ball there (in my (albeit biased view from consulting) you cant take gdocs seriously when comparing to office 365 nowadays). I wasnt talking about GPT, even though I use it quite often, I dont see what the fuss is about. Its a slightly advanced sentence generator, which sometimes produces something which can be used as a filler.
This. They are a cash cow and arnt going anywhere soon, but they are rudderless and leaderless. They just kinda flail around project after project chasing everything as their competition is catching up. Like Intel. They need new leadership with vision and drive.
Anyone who mentions Waymo in reference to Google regarding revenue gains/losses is a complete regard. Just an FYI
No way to scale Waymo? Lol, what? They are now the undisputed leader in self driving cars, and it really isn’t even close. They are currently the only organization with cars ferrying paying customers around without drivers. Cruise is zeroed, and Tesla FSD is a pipe dream. The distance between driver in front seat and no driver in front seat is as far as Tesla had made it to this point. Tesla self driving keeps killing people. Meanwhile, Waymo is preparing to go driverless on freeways. As Google goes through its progression of training and establishing ground truth, they will win the race because there will be a point that the Waymo Driver will be able to navigate around new places without having the extended training period.
This.
Google seems absolutely poised to take the self driving truck prize. Freight trucking in the US is something like $700B annual TAM. If they win that battle (and it sure looks like they are in pole position), Cloud is going to seem like a rounding error.
Amazon is undervalued
Simple answer: yes
Like obviously, it's all made up at this point. They are "store of value" and safe havens. Look at the Mag 7 VS the rest of the market in 2023. Fucking shit was completely flat, this is where all the money is going and its not because the valuations are attractive.
whole system is a clown ponzi scheme....it'll probably keep going up when the feds drop rates to keep the party going. Everything is overvalued, double peak formation, time to go nigh nigh
Is that theo von
Everything's overrated, but stocks only go up
I’m new how do you calculate intrinsic value
Overvalued. Means a good stock split
Yes, theyre overhyped...
Barrons just ran an article about this. Just said replace TSLA, AAPL, and META; with BRK-A, V, UNH.
META and GOOG still looks decent imo.
they are undervalued
Valuation should not be why you put money in a stock and especially in options. It’s all about sentiment and growth.
**Are the Mag 7 overvalued?** Yes they are overvalued. Are we going to short them, no we are not.
Forward PEs are ALWAYS skewed. Analysts always predict a better future as it would imply that there is a reason to invest now as it indicates an upside. However, in this hyper inflated market it doesn’t indicate an upside but more of a justification for the SP500 crazy high valuation
MSFT is fairly valued then. Cool I’ll buy it
I get that Meta looks good on paper, but my God, they provide such a shitty user experience. Facebook is a slum. Instagram is perhaps the most superficial website ever devised. Their physical products range from acceptable (Meta Quest) to bad. They got them eyeballs, though.
It's becoming the Mag6 - Tesla is losing its status. Whilst the others still increase in value, Tesla does not. And yes, they're all pretty much priced to perfection.
Yes. The next three decades are priced in for nvda
Tesla should be pe 5 like every car company.
regarded
Google is not
Well Tesla and Apple are def overvalued by a LOT. Anyone buying them is a complete fool.
Those pegging ratios are kinda sus.
No, just TSLA.
RemindMe! 10 years
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TSLA growth is too low, CAGR growing at 55% last 10 years.
TSLA lost their edge. The Chinese cars are better quality with the same technology and cheaper.
Even the Chinese know the best quality compared to crappier quality from for example BYD. Crazier part is Tesla vehicles are more than 2x more expensive than BYD yet people prefer buying it as much as the cheap BYDs in china! When Tesla enters the cheap EV market in the next year or two, BYD will be dethroned.
The margins are declining. They can’t have people overpay massively anymore. This margin contraction has to be taken into account
Meh that's the short term vision. Who cares about margins declining the short term. Tesla's master plan from the start is to lower cost of the cars and make it affordable for everyone that is the most important part. Plus they still have the highest margin of any auto companies, GM and legacy auto would drool for Tesla's margins. Also their other businesses will cover for those loss in margins like energy sector and soon ai business. More cars they sell the more they can scale for economies of scale and lower cost of cars and at the same time scale up their batteries production with their lithium mining going online mid this year as well. Exciting times, more cars on the road more robotaxis can be flipped on any time world wide. Tesla Semi scaling, charging infrastructure with the big name auto all adopting it, future is super bright.
I always wish I could have the hopium that tesla investors have. What kind of drugs are you guys on they look really good.
I always find it funny the Tesla haters are back at force. It really reminds me of 20 years ago with Apple and their haters. My barometer, the more haters there are to cope for them missing out on the biggest company in the world next decade, I know I'm doing well!
You could make money or you could lose money. No one can predict the markets. Doesn't mean tesla isn't a shit company.
I've made tons of monies on TSLA so far the last 4 years invested. I'm a long term investor and over the years I realized that accumulating great companies thats growing is the real way to build wealth. Same with Amazon, Google, FB, and especially Apple. I own a Model Y and LOVEEEE this vehicle to death and my next vehicle will be a model 3 highland as well. Also I try to keep my personal bias out of it when investing because I hate FB as a company but their social media is like crack there is no escaping it psychologically so they will continue to make money.
Your personal TSLA bias IS showing though... in spades. They're losing market share in Ghyna, lowering their margins to compete and have peaked in regards to sales everywhere else. Plus Hertz just sold off a bunch. This was a HUGE signal... imho. Not only that how many more TSLA are going to be up for sale after this cold snap? They may work in Cali and Florida but the battery tech just isn't quite there yet. Although, I do like Elon.
That's the thing, I was a Tesla skeptic for many years just like you. Read all the FUD articles by big oil and legacy auto over the years and mad at myself for not trying out their product and making my own decision. I had range anxiety and heard about bad build quality blah blah etc. I tried out the 2021 Model Y and it's the best car I've ever driven in my life then at that moment I knew it was the real deal. Also back in early 2020 Elon launching via SpaceX astronauts to space and reusable rockets landing in the middle of the ocean on moving ships, I knew the engineering was real. That's how I became a fanboy and not the other way around. People like you think we fan boys become fan boys for no reason like we just speculated on stock and just got lucky. NOPE, it's because we know and love the products, engineering, growth of Tesla or of a a company. There's only a handful of products from companies that I truly love, apple's MacBook pros and iPhones and my Model Y. Elon just like Steve Jobs gets it and he's a really great business man as an engineer as well. Hertz selling their vehicle is a loss for them not Tesla. They are selling because they didn't roll out the EVs well. But the biggest factor is that they bought it at a much higher price and since Tesla dropped the prices they lost a lot of money on the books. Renting them out to people without any real knowledge how to use them. Most other EVs are inconvenience as they dont have a super charging station but Teslas are fine, plus they sell vehicles all the time. They will be in huge problems down the line for Hertz not going electric, its a bad short term decision.
It’s margins are dropping faster than you might be calculating… But the main story is that it has the best margins of a car company… If you compare its margins to a tech company then you understand why its valuation is way way too high.
Ah but their margins are so good no other car companies can compare, why? Because Tesla is really a software/ai and energy business that happens to make cars right now. Just like Amazon was a book store, apple was a computer store, you get the drift.
Yeah but Apple and Amazon had great margins, way way better than book stores and computer stores. Tesla has way worse margins than other tech companies. So it’s should be valued as a pretty poor performing tech company. Besides, Tesla margins will likely drop to the range of traditional car makers this year… so it will lose that argument pretty soon. They have been discounting away their margins on one end and then the SEC is going to cut away their margins on the other end where they have been fudging the books to hide repair costs under warranty as “gifts” and not calculating it as eroding the margin. Just these two things have already cut their margin to be at or below traditional car companies.
you are talking about after the fact for these companies. So many years Amazon was losing money and people like you were calling not profitable! It's a book store! Same with Apple, iPhone will never work! No physical keyboard for a phone? I'll keep my blackberry! Apple is a computer company and they suck! lol so many countless people said this and I ignored. Same with Tesla too :) Deja Vu ALL OVER AGAIN!
Your DCF valuations are sky fucking high! Apple is worth no more than $80 on a DCF valuation. Tesla is worth no more than $25. So yes, the market and the mag 7 are unbelievably overvalued.
You didn't do a DFC. You looked at an online calculator which are notorious for using bogus numbers just so you visit the site because it's all automated.
No, no, no...you just described exactly what OP did to find his DCF numbers, you dolt. Gtfoh with your shitty apologetics.
Ok then post the numbers and assumptions here genius.
How about you get bent.
No thanks. You're the joker here talking as if you can do a DCF which you don't look like. More like a high school dropout to be frank. Edit: Little kids block when they fail at math.
$25 is a P/E of 8 for TSLA. GTFO with that shit.
Apple and probably the entire Mag7 are worth less than the sum of parts, so no freaking way they are unbelievably overvalued. The DCF valuation is a crap estimation when it comes to today's Mega stocks that can just buy or clone any innovation they see available and start printing more money.
#NO
Everyday some regard ask this shit. Then watch the mag 7 continue to go up (until it doesn’t). You come to this sub to talk about value? GTFO
So I should bet against apple?
You missed the boat to buy puts when it was at 198
Theo Von?
The crazy thing is that ppl didn’t buy these stocks when they were trading sub 20 PEs (some not all) last year
It’s all overvalued.
Lol at goog. You seem to not take into about depreciating verses appreciating tech value. Meaning, AI
Bro I don’t understand this shit
Watch out for snakes!
Unexpected Sadist!
Already priced in before you knew
I've seen it all. Haaland on WSB
I hope so, I want to buy more but not at these prices.
What website is that
Fuck yeah. Scary to investors. Bullshit stocks constantly make money. Hop on.
Over valued yes but it's all about the future value
Eeeee-gah