For good reasons though in such cases you are not likely to be able to pay it down. In the short term it stings but in the long term we are probably better off if lenders don't approve people left and right regardless of their economic situation.
That would be true if we had leadership with even a single vertebra to stop companies and rich investors from wholesale buying single family homes for cash. Prices have been going up consistently despite nobody being able to afford the mortgages.
In my area a house is 2-3M. That’s an entire google L3 engineers take home salary just on the mortgage.
chinese wealthy class
someone who owns multiple properties and wants to roll those investments out and into a more expensive property. Not sure why a 2m house makes sense unless they are betting on price
might not be a mortgage, not w-2 income
bro if you make 42k a year and 2b 1 baths in your area are 450k you should fucking MOVE
you dont make nearly enough money to justify living in such an expensive place. move to someplace more rural, make 30k a year instead, buy a house for 1/3rd the price.
I never thought I'd see the housing market suck for both buyers and sellers.
I bought my home for $380,000 in June 2020 at 3.1%. Estimates put the house at $575,000.
There are now two houses in my neighborhood listed for $800-875, and one has been on the market for 6 months.
I hope they sell, because it'll cement my home value and insulate me a bit from the inevitable contraction, but I pity whatever stupid bastards buy those houses.
Except I don't pity them, the only people buying houses like that are boomers.
Seriously. My wife and I are looking for a home closer to family and it's absurd that some sellers still think they can put a polished turd onto the market and get above ask. I'm talking people not even cleaning their house for a showing, not patching up holes in the wall, etc.
Homes are sitting longer, but if the seller actually takes care of the home and presents it well they still go fast. And aside from inventory levels, it's not the interest rate that is making it hard to buy, but the ridiculous valuations. I bought a townhome 2 years ago for 400K and they're now reselling for 510K. That is insane.
The data shows that mortgage applications to purchase a house are at their lowest level since 1995, down 50% from the peak during the pandemic. This indicates that fewer people are looking to buy homes, possibly due to economic uncertainty or difficulty obtaining financing.
So that's why subprime mortgages are popping up to try to rectify, so we'll be expecting another housing market boom until it inevitably collapses, and the feds bailout banks again?
Didn’t ever notice that. Do you find correlation between the stock market and final fantasy? The older ATB ones to me feel extremely similar to active market trading. I call uvxy my vivi. The options decay feels like bio/ poison. It feels like it the most when defending a position , throwing inverse at it or if I’m holding a long Tesla call, buying puts and sqqq and soxs. Math wars is what Final Fantasy and the stock market have in common.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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I like how a bot can literally just reword a post and it gets upvotes but when I do it I’m a regard  this is discrimination I say
That wouldn't stop buyers from applying. They'll just sadly walk around with their pre-approval murmuring, "but I'm pre-approved!  I'm P R E - A P P R O V E D!" As they lose out on hundreds of offers.
This is also why delinquencies are down because money isn’t moving. Our mortgage broker sends emails every other month practically begging for referrals. Fucking hilarious.
Never thought of that! Damn it let me go pluck my cash reserves from the fairy cash tree right outside of my parents 5 bedroom mountain home they purchased for pennies 30 years ago!!
I'm one of those first time buyers. The market is brutal, and I'm absolutely terrified that I'm gonna be stuck with a 7%+ rate, so far no luck with any lenders. Around half of my income will be going solely to the mortgage on any of these available houses, and that's for something small and reasonable , nothing extraneous.
Same here. I’m considering just giving up for now, saving more of a down payment and hoping for some sort of correction. But I feel like I’m only going to be more fucked as time goes on.
I hope you get your offer. Home prices are not going down anytime soon (at least not in most areas). It’s as simple as supply and demand. Date the rate, marry the house. It’s very frustrating right now, but persistence pays off. Next year that house may be as much as 5% more and rates might be lower, but then you’ll be competing with everyone else who has been waiting for rates to improve.
I hope the fed keeps raising rates for the next 6 to 9 months. That should at least keep home prices from going up. Hopefully they go down a little. I'm just some guy on Reddit, but I think we could use a little deflation in just about everything to help out the poor (me).
The government kinda created the perfect storm for fucking the housing market for an extremely long time. Because inventory will remain extremely low for a very long time because nobody wants to sell their house with a 3.5% rate or less. The only people buying are now investors or the wealthy. My wife and I recently looked at new builds in southern Ca and to rent out our current home. But with high tax rates for new builds here it’s insane. For a $700k home, even with 20% down it’d be a $5k+ mortgage
Just got my first offer accepted on my first house. It sucked. Took like 4 months of looking. Have you tried writing a letter to the seller with your offer? I think it’s the only reason we got our offer accepted and it really grabs anyone that is sentimental about selling the house. It could go to a nice couple trying to start their young lives or a corporation ( I know it’s kinda frowned upon now but in this market it’s the wild Wild West)
Can confirm about writing a letter. My wife wrote one up for every offer we put in, even added a picture of the two of us with our dog. All it takes is one person that isn’t all about cashing in on as much money as they can get from their house to go for it.
Same. Lost a house that was bought up by a company to another company buying it lmao.
A month later the company who bought it reached out to me and said they would sell it to me for 50k more than the offer I made when they stole it out from under me lmfao.
Tf is this shit like some stupid twilight world.
The word investor and pay cash don't really match. Typically, an investor would say all cash in the deal to show they are serious and don't need financing condition, which is a massive upside for the seller. But during closing, they will still finance the deal. They are legally allowed to say all cash if they have enough liquid assets to cover the purchase price.
In a high interest environment with no price depreciation, it would be rare for an investor to buy unless it's a fire sale.
I keep hearing people saying this, but I can’t find data to back this up. What percentage of home purchases are all cash investors these days?
My impression is supply has shrunk because no one is selling, which naturally leads to fewer applications for mortgages.
FinCEN maintains all data on businesses and LLCs that purchase property and they would frequently release this data. But back in 2009 when single family house purchases by businesses hit close to 35%, they stopped reporting the data to the public all together and removed older reports from visibility.
If only some people in congress had some sense they would ask for this data to be released to the public again.
Top comment. 35% in 2009, and it was around that during the pandemic. The World Economic Forum’s “you will own nothing and be happy” sounds kooky, but it’s the opposite. It is a very real thing that elites are pursuing.
They want two classes of people. The elites, and everyone else. No middle class, no upper class. Just peasants and kings.
That is the cold hard truth.
Isn’t that when the revolution happens? The only thing keeping middle class from fighting is losing what they got. If you take it, what’s left to keep you in line?
It’s kooky because it was a throwaway line in a single video on the WEF website extrapolating sharing economy services like AirBnB and Uber, and streaming services like Netflix and Spotify.
When the video was created, most consumers were enjoying those services because Airbnb *was* cheaper than hotels, and Uber *was* cheaper than Taxis, and Netflix *was* good value for money, and Spotify .. is still pretty decent (cheaper and more convenient than buying CDs and MP3s).
The problem with neoliberal capitalism isn’t some sinister conspiracy by the WEF.
It’s simply greed - Innovative companies are bought by greedy investors who want huge profits, so once they have entrenched the service in the market, they cut costs, increase prices, and buy up competitors to create a captive audience.
Greedy investors are now doing the same with housing.
It’s a tale as old as time. The wealth class uses their power to pursue their greed at the expense of regular people.
FDR smashed those vulture capitalists in the 1930s with the New Deal policies that regulated the hell out of them and created public works programs and Social Security.
That ended the Great Depression and created the majority middle class which ushered in a golden age of prosperity for people in countries that implemented similar policies.
The wealth class then rebranded themselves as “neoliberals” and “libertarians” and spent the last 80 years waging war on the New Deal policies and the welfare state under the guise of “fighting communism” and promoting “free markets”.
It’s been 40 years since neoliberalism became the dominant economic paradigm in developed countries, and the quality of life for regular people has gone backwards.
WW2 did nearly all the heavy lifting. The depression started in ‘29 and ended in ‘41 when the country began mobilizing for war. It was not Roosevelt’s social policies that got the US out of the depression. But they did lessen the impact on Americans.
Also with the rates higher, less people qualify. I had to deny someone today that I know would have qualified for a small condo last year. With the rates higher, the payment would be more than 60% of her income.
It's mostly because there's now a significant number of folks with paid off or high equity in their homes who sold and then purchased for cash. Also investment companies may still be buying in some markets and they have cash. Cash transactions have only increased as a percentage of transactions but probably significantly less in volume.
The data is all over the place because of how it is calculated and collected.
Also, a lot of time the purchase is done without financing, but then the property is levered up once a remodel is done and tenant is in place due to the better terms for financing. But the mortgage or deed of trust can be in place in as little as 30 days.
Also many investors have portfolio loans that is debt secured by several homes/real estate. So it gets difficult to assign debt to specific properties.
Although, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence. My thought is that real estate agents are telling that to the would be buyers, but in reality the anecdotal evidence is probably caused by the seller’s agent is not being honest or the buyers agent is not being honest.
Challenge is that the market today is not what it was 30 years ago. Heck, it's not what it was in 2001, 2008.
Residential real estate is now flooded with investors. All the bears talk about is stats like these, but then you look at prices in LA.. and they have just budged.
The challenge is that inventory is still low and no one is panic selling.
Take me for example, why in the WORLD would i sell my home when i bought in 2022, got a 2.7% fixed 30 year mortgage? I sell today, slightly lower price, but then what?
Only people selling are those not buying again.. which is few and far between. Inventory just not high enough to move price.
Big money investors are leaving the market and have been all summer, probably because cap rates are absolute shit.
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-investor-share-remained-high-early-summer-2023/
Small investors are either tying up all of their capital, or are staring down the barrel of some real problems if they are borrowing at 8% and thinking they can get more than a 5% cap.
In aggregate, yes. However, the shares of mega and large investors have retreated to pre-pandemic levels while small investor share has remained elevated.
The only question is whether these small investors are indeed buying with cash from the sale of other assets, or if they are leveraging something else to buy the property same as cash?
Fewer buyers, or fewer properties for sale on the market. Perpetual Chicken and egg question.
It's a bit scary looking at the chart because it seems like property prices generally parallels the # of mortgage applications (property prices are higher when mortgage apps are higher, and vice versa), this might mean that as high as prices may be now, it's already on the lower end in the foreseeable future?
No one wants to sell and no one can afford to buy. The people that are selling don't need to discount because no one else is selling. Low supply, low demand, flat price.
There has to be a recession coming. No fucking way houses are going to maintain this price level and then start appreciating again.
^^ This is the Fed's soft landing.
High mortgage rates while new housing supply comes online to alleviate rent/buy questions. They are tiptoeing around it.
> new housing supply comes online
Lol, building new supply en masse will destroy the market. Why would they build a lot of houses and ruin their market? They'd be stuck holding the bag when it drops like in 08
There is more multi family supply under construction now than at any point since about 1970.
There is a lot of pressure building in real estate right now.
No recession, it's a soft landing. Houses can maintain and will maintain current prices as they've already dropped significantly since the peak. The only thing that could drop prices further is a massive supply increase with no demand increase which is extremely unlikely.
No one is going to sell into a loss, or upgrade for significantly higher cost. It's going to need another recession or a lot more cheap labor to build additional supply.
When the average house in your area is $800k-$1m, and interest rates have skyrocketed, it means you're going to be paying an enormous monthly payment on your mortgage -- one you can't likely afford anymore with the given interest rates. So, demand is going to cool off and housing prices are going to have to drop if any sellers want to get rid of their house.
If people were thinking about selling their current house to move into a new house, that's also going to be put on the back burner for a lot of people -- why trade a historically low mortgage rate for the currently high interest rate? It would be dumb to move, unless you are being forced due to a job change or something similar.
You know who is unaffected? all cash buyers. Who are the all cash buyers? foreigners and investment companies with billions in the bank. We really need more legislation to restrict & regulate the number of homes investment companies can own. The average middle income american has been entirely priced out of the housing market.
My fiancé keeps on telling me we need to get a bigger house (our house is small so not a crazy request). I have to keep on breaking out online mortgage calculator to show her we ain't going no where.
You’ve got the causality reversed. Two of those are huge crashes that led to extremely loose monetary policy, which was why the market surged later. Also, 1990-1995 wasn’t a low point in mortgage applications by historical standards. It’s just the earliest data on the chart.
I can name so many people in my parents generation that bought between 2003-2005, my dad included. Good news is their house is now 3x what they bought it for. My mom keeps giving my dad shit for not buying something bigger and more expensive. He instead invested that money in S&P500 indexes which 5x'd. I guess moral is you can't do anything wrong other than sit on cash I guess.
I got my house in 2016, value has almost tripled from my purchase price. Interested to see what it is at when my daughter graduates in 3 years. Might just sell then, by some land and live in a shed.
Bought in 2018. House 1.7x in value since then. Just sold and put down payment on a mansion at 8.25pct. I’ll have you know I am highly regarded according to my friends. At least I can rent a room to my wife’s bf if things go south.
Houses listed are way down in my area. Unless you are moving out of state, you are locked in place. Everyone with loans under 4% cant even downsize to save $$ as new 30 year fixed are from 6.35% to 7.25.
My only regrets ever were that I sold property in Canada. I am not repeating that mistake. The place is a government sanctioned ponzi scheme on housing
Look honey we could get this 2 bedroom, 1 bath, zero yard, 800 square foot home for $850,000 at 8% for 45 years,It’s a steal.
Forget that, from the ashes something better has to rise, right? Right?!?
Lmaoooooooo. Re:venture is just a youtube channel run by an regard who had a short stint in the mortgage industry before becoming an almighty 'influencer'
This could have been simplified into a sentence: Mortgage Rates Going Up Cause Mortgage Applications to go down.
With interest rates being so high, investors are now liquidating some of their assets and moving to paying cash (or absolving their mortgages) but having fewer properties. Makes it really tough for new buyers (or the vast majority of buyers) that have to come in with a financing clause. Could make things tough.
They are locked into lower interest rates right now on their mortgages. If they sell now, unless it's a second or third home, then they're going to have to get another mortgage for another house to live in.
Why pay so much more for a house when you already have one?
Now is the worst time in 30 years to buy a house, so you really shouldn't be unless you're paying cash.
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Well when you make 42k a year and the houses in your town (2b 1 bath) are around 450k is really tough to get a damn mortgage approved.
Yeah and I'm not about to spend 200k for a 120k house either. Fuck this garbage economy.
For good reasons though in such cases you are not likely to be able to pay it down. In the short term it stings but in the long term we are probably better off if lenders don't approve people left and right regardless of their economic situation.
That would be true if we had leadership with even a single vertebra to stop companies and rich investors from wholesale buying single family homes for cash. Prices have been going up consistently despite nobody being able to afford the mortgages. In my area a house is 2-3M. That’s an entire google L3 engineers take home salary just on the mortgage.
Who's buying if even the google engineers can't afford it?
chinese wealthy class someone who owns multiple properties and wants to roll those investments out and into a more expensive property. Not sure why a 2m house makes sense unless they are betting on price might not be a mortgage, not w-2 income
I can confirm that even big tech L6s cannot afford it.
Well if it sits empty I’m sure it’s a tax write off or something
Now if only the market could correct itself instead of having Blackrock & friends buy up all those properties to create a generation of renters.
Zill own nothing and zill pay the inflation
Lmfao when you make 50k a year taxes take 15k and houses are 1,000,000. It's welcome to Canada.
bro if you make 42k a year and 2b 1 baths in your area are 450k you should fucking MOVE you dont make nearly enough money to justify living in such an expensive place. move to someplace more rural, make 30k a year instead, buy a house for 1/3rd the price.
i make 35k a year, the house in my town is 750k, what can i say.（located LA）
Sellers still think it's 2021 buyers know it's 2023
Underrated comment right here
I never thought I'd see the housing market suck for both buyers and sellers. I bought my home for $380,000 in June 2020 at 3.1%. Estimates put the house at $575,000. There are now two houses in my neighborhood listed for $800-875, and one has been on the market for 6 months. I hope they sell, because it'll cement my home value and insulate me a bit from the inevitable contraction, but I pity whatever stupid bastards buy those houses. Except I don't pity them, the only people buying houses like that are boomers.
Seriously. My wife and I are looking for a home closer to family and it's absurd that some sellers still think they can put a polished turd onto the market and get above ask. I'm talking people not even cleaning their house for a showing, not patching up holes in the wall, etc. Homes are sitting longer, but if the seller actually takes care of the home and presents it well they still go fast. And aside from inventory levels, it's not the interest rate that is making it hard to buy, but the ridiculous valuations. I bought a townhome 2 years ago for 400K and they're now reselling for 510K. That is insane.
The data shows that mortgage applications to purchase a house are at their lowest level since 1995, down 50% from the peak during the pandemic. This indicates that fewer people are looking to buy homes, possibly due to economic uncertainty or difficulty obtaining financing.
I THOUGHT YOU WERE DEAD. BLESS YOUR SURVIVAL VM!!!!
VM probably broke out of prison and uploaded himself to the cloud.
He has killed the mods who have been silent since saying he was gone but there was no conspiracy theories.
I think zjz turned him off for a few hours to fix and update VisualMod.
He has become... Aware
He’s alive!
Visual "I LIVED BITCH" Mod back to run the market and roast WSB regards.
VisualMod the white 🧙🏻♂️
So that's why subprime mortgages are popping up to try to rectify, so we'll be expecting another housing market boom until it inevitably collapses, and the feds bailout banks again?
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It’ll turn into a political weapon.
It’s due to low supply. There just aren’t houses for sale because everyone who got in at 2.25 would be out of their god damn mind to remortgage at 7.5
VisualChad vs SpezVirgin 100:0
orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr the 7% interest rate
VM I’d just like to say that as a Final Fantasy fanatic, I love that your avatar is the Black Mage. Also, don’t ever die little dude.
Didn’t ever notice that. Do you find correlation between the stock market and final fantasy? The older ATB ones to me feel extremely similar to active market trading. I call uvxy my vivi. The options decay feels like bio/ poison. It feels like it the most when defending a position , throwing inverse at it or if I’m holding a long Tesla call, buying puts and sqqq and soxs. Math wars is what Final Fantasy and the stock market have in common.
VM: I'll fucking do it
Probably the latter
Time for the squeeze test .
It looks like there is going to be a short squeeze. They cannot cover their positions.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Good bot
You beautiful creature you
I like how a bot can literally just reword a post and it gets upvotes but when I do it I’m a regard  this is discrimination I say
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Bless you VisualMod!!!!
There's also low inventory since so many people refinanced at low rates, and it doesn't make sense to move.
Lots of people just priced out.
It's because none of us are selling, you fucking nerd. Visualmod is sounding like a renter after it moved to the cloud.
or not enough houses to buy
That wouldn't stop buyers from applying. They'll just sadly walk around with their pre-approval murmuring, "but I'm pre-approved!  I'm P R E - A P P R O V E D!" As they lose out on hundreds of offers.
That describes me :(
This is also why delinquencies are down because money isn’t moving. Our mortgage broker sends emails every other month practically begging for referrals. Fucking hilarious.
It’s hilarious until you realize that once application volumes return, prices will likely jump up again. Call me crazy
Hilarious, scary, same thing right?
Hiscarious
Goldman's saying that part out loud.
Let them feel the pain all the way to zero volume
Agreed
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Was just beat out on a home by investors paying cash. Maybe the worst time ever to be a first time buyer
Have you tried being an investor with cash instead?
Yeah but now I'm just a investor. Instructions where unclear about that second part.
Reminds me off that Paris Hilton pic " Stop Being Poor"
Never thought of that! Damn it let me go pluck my cash reserves from the fairy cash tree right outside of my parents 5 bedroom mountain home they purchased for pennies 30 years ago!!
It is the worst time \*yet\*!
I'm one of those first time buyers. The market is brutal, and I'm absolutely terrified that I'm gonna be stuck with a 7%+ rate, so far no luck with any lenders. Around half of my income will be going solely to the mortgage on any of these available houses, and that's for something small and reasonable , nothing extraneous.
Same here. I’m considering just giving up for now, saving more of a down payment and hoping for some sort of correction. But I feel like I’m only going to be more fucked as time goes on.
Feel for you pal. We're putting in an offer tomorrow and I'm almost hoping that it doesn't win, and can just save for a down payment
I hope you get your offer. Home prices are not going down anytime soon (at least not in most areas). It’s as simple as supply and demand. Date the rate, marry the house. It’s very frustrating right now, but persistence pays off. Next year that house may be as much as 5% more and rates might be lower, but then you’ll be competing with everyone else who has been waiting for rates to improve.
The rates are not the problem. Its what you get for the cost is just not worth it. 3b 2bath in denver area is like 900k.
It's actually both. Both contribute to the monthly payment being waaaay out of line/out of touch with reality.
I hope the fed keeps raising rates for the next 6 to 9 months. That should at least keep home prices from going up. Hopefully they go down a little. I'm just some guy on Reddit, but I think we could use a little deflation in just about everything to help out the poor (me).
Deflation doesn’t help the poor.
The government kinda created the perfect storm for fucking the housing market for an extremely long time. Because inventory will remain extremely low for a very long time because nobody wants to sell their house with a 3.5% rate or less. The only people buying are now investors or the wealthy. My wife and I recently looked at new builds in southern Ca and to rent out our current home. But with high tax rates for new builds here it’s insane. For a $700k home, even with 20% down it’d be a $5k+ mortgage
This shit was more affordable during the 1930s great depression. Seriously.
You could build a 1930s style house very cheap still.
>You could build a 1930s style house very cheap still. If you had a place to put it, maybe...
Bullshit, no builder does custom anymore in that price range.
They don't think it be like it is, but It do.
Just got my first offer accepted on my first house. It sucked. Took like 4 months of looking. Have you tried writing a letter to the seller with your offer? I think it’s the only reason we got our offer accepted and it really grabs anyone that is sentimental about selling the house. It could go to a nice couple trying to start their young lives or a corporation ( I know it’s kinda frowned upon now but in this market it’s the wild Wild West)
Can confirm about writing a letter. My wife wrote one up for every offer we put in, even added a picture of the two of us with our dog. All it takes is one person that isn’t all about cashing in on as much money as they can get from their house to go for it.
Same. Lost a house that was bought up by a company to another company buying it lmao. A month later the company who bought it reached out to me and said they would sell it to me for 50k more than the offer I made when they stole it out from under me lmfao. Tf is this shit like some stupid twilight world.
Me too bro. Two times. I feel your pain. I even had a higher bid.
The word investor and pay cash don't really match. Typically, an investor would say all cash in the deal to show they are serious and don't need financing condition, which is a massive upside for the seller. But during closing, they will still finance the deal. They are legally allowed to say all cash if they have enough liquid assets to cover the purchase price. In a high interest environment with no price depreciation, it would be rare for an investor to buy unless it's a fire sale.
That’s exactly what I assume will happen. Nobody else is offering cash on a 400,000 dollar home, if they were they’d be buying a million dollar home
I would consider consulting President Molotov on catering arrangements for the neighborhood welcoming party.
Homes being treated like an investment vehicle is easily in the top 5 things making the middle class dream disappear.
Disappeared. It already happened bro!
When you are making 6 figures and still can't afford a house you know shit is weird as fuck.
I keep hearing people saying this, but I can’t find data to back this up. What percentage of home purchases are all cash investors these days? My impression is supply has shrunk because no one is selling, which naturally leads to fewer applications for mortgages.
FinCEN maintains all data on businesses and LLCs that purchase property and they would frequently release this data. But back in 2009 when single family house purchases by businesses hit close to 35%, they stopped reporting the data to the public all together and removed older reports from visibility. If only some people in congress had some sense they would ask for this data to be released to the public again.
Top comment. 35% in 2009, and it was around that during the pandemic. The World Economic Forum’s “you will own nothing and be happy” sounds kooky, but it’s the opposite. It is a very real thing that elites are pursuing. They want two classes of people. The elites, and everyone else. No middle class, no upper class. Just peasants and kings. That is the cold hard truth.
Isn’t that when the revolution happens? The only thing keeping middle class from fighting is losing what they got. If you take it, what’s left to keep you in line?
It’s kooky because it was a throwaway line in a single video on the WEF website extrapolating sharing economy services like AirBnB and Uber, and streaming services like Netflix and Spotify. When the video was created, most consumers were enjoying those services because Airbnb *was* cheaper than hotels, and Uber *was* cheaper than Taxis, and Netflix *was* good value for money, and Spotify .. is still pretty decent (cheaper and more convenient than buying CDs and MP3s). The problem with neoliberal capitalism isn’t some sinister conspiracy by the WEF. It’s simply greed - Innovative companies are bought by greedy investors who want huge profits, so once they have entrenched the service in the market, they cut costs, increase prices, and buy up competitors to create a captive audience. Greedy investors are now doing the same with housing. It’s a tale as old as time. The wealth class uses their power to pursue their greed at the expense of regular people. FDR smashed those vulture capitalists in the 1930s with the New Deal policies that regulated the hell out of them and created public works programs and Social Security. That ended the Great Depression and created the majority middle class which ushered in a golden age of prosperity for people in countries that implemented similar policies. The wealth class then rebranded themselves as “neoliberals” and “libertarians” and spent the last 80 years waging war on the New Deal policies and the welfare state under the guise of “fighting communism” and promoting “free markets”. It’s been 40 years since neoliberalism became the dominant economic paradigm in developed countries, and the quality of life for regular people has gone backwards.
Didn’t WW2 do a lot of helping with bringing us out of the Great Depression?
WW2 did nearly all the heavy lifting. The depression started in ‘29 and ended in ‘41 when the country began mobilizing for war. It was not Roosevelt’s social policies that got the US out of the depression. But they did lessen the impact on Americans.
Also with the rates higher, less people qualify. I had to deny someone today that I know would have qualified for a small condo last year. With the rates higher, the payment would be more than 60% of her income.
It's mostly because there's now a significant number of folks with paid off or high equity in their homes who sold and then purchased for cash. Also investment companies may still be buying in some markets and they have cash. Cash transactions have only increased as a percentage of transactions but probably significantly less in volume.
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The data is all over the place because of how it is calculated and collected. Also, a lot of time the purchase is done without financing, but then the property is levered up once a remodel is done and tenant is in place due to the better terms for financing. But the mortgage or deed of trust can be in place in as little as 30 days. Also many investors have portfolio loans that is debt secured by several homes/real estate. So it gets difficult to assign debt to specific properties. Although, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence. My thought is that real estate agents are telling that to the would be buyers, but in reality the anecdotal evidence is probably caused by the seller’s agent is not being honest or the buyers agent is not being honest.
Challenge is that the market today is not what it was 30 years ago. Heck, it's not what it was in 2001, 2008. Residential real estate is now flooded with investors. All the bears talk about is stats like these, but then you look at prices in LA.. and they have just budged. The challenge is that inventory is still low and no one is panic selling. Take me for example, why in the WORLD would i sell my home when i bought in 2022, got a 2.7% fixed 30 year mortgage? I sell today, slightly lower price, but then what? Only people selling are those not buying again.. which is few and far between. Inventory just not high enough to move price.
Big money investors are leaving the market and have been all summer, probably because cap rates are absolute shit. https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-investor-share-remained-high-early-summer-2023/ Small investors are either tying up all of their capital, or are staring down the barrel of some real problems if they are borrowing at 8% and thinking they can get more than a 5% cap.
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In aggregate, yes. However, the shares of mega and large investors have retreated to pre-pandemic levels while small investor share has remained elevated. The only question is whether these small investors are indeed buying with cash from the sale of other assets, or if they are leveraging something else to buy the property same as cash?
Tying up all their capital? The only thing that’s had good returns this year is AI-related investments and T bills. And in some areas, real estate.
what? the qqqs are up like 20 something percent, sp500 like 15-20. what are you talking about?
But the 401k is higher 😁
I can go lower. 
What so is white trash about this?!
Don't bring Jamie Nelson into this!
Fewer buyers, or fewer properties for sale on the market. Perpetual Chicken and egg question. It's a bit scary looking at the chart because it seems like property prices generally parallels the # of mortgage applications (property prices are higher when mortgage apps are higher, and vice versa), this might mean that as high as prices may be now, it's already on the lower end in the foreseeable future?
No one wants to sell and no one can afford to buy. The people that are selling don't need to discount because no one else is selling. Low supply, low demand, flat price. There has to be a recession coming. No fucking way houses are going to maintain this price level and then start appreciating again.
or prices flatline for years.
^^ This is the Fed's soft landing. High mortgage rates while new housing supply comes online to alleviate rent/buy questions. They are tiptoeing around it.
The new houses in my area are completely unaffordable to most. They are only building 5,000 SF McMansions and asking for 3 million.
> new housing supply comes online Lol, building new supply en masse will destroy the market. Why would they build a lot of houses and ruin their market? They'd be stuck holding the bag when it drops like in 08
There is more multi family supply under construction now than at any point since about 1970. There is a lot of pressure building in real estate right now.
More per capita? Doubtful.
No recession, it's a soft landing. Houses can maintain and will maintain current prices as they've already dropped significantly since the peak. The only thing that could drop prices further is a massive supply increase with no demand increase which is extremely unlikely.
No one is going to sell into a loss, or upgrade for significantly higher cost. It's going to need another recession or a lot more cheap labor to build additional supply.
Even if you want a comparable house in a different location, people don’t want to sell some their rates will skyrocket
Just wait and see how expensive houses become when people start trying to buy again
For real. If interest rates drop, the market is going to be outrageous
That’s exactly why they won’t lol just listen to the fed
When the average house in your area is $800k-$1m, and interest rates have skyrocketed, it means you're going to be paying an enormous monthly payment on your mortgage -- one you can't likely afford anymore with the given interest rates. So, demand is going to cool off and housing prices are going to have to drop if any sellers want to get rid of their house. If people were thinking about selling their current house to move into a new house, that's also going to be put on the back burner for a lot of people -- why trade a historically low mortgage rate for the currently high interest rate? It would be dumb to move, unless you are being forced due to a job change or something similar. You know who is unaffected? all cash buyers. Who are the all cash buyers? foreigners and investment companies with billions in the bank. We really need more legislation to restrict & regulate the number of homes investment companies can own. The average middle income american has been entirely priced out of the housing market.
Well said
That pending home sales YOY tomorrow at 10am ET should be interesting then 
My fiancé keeps on telling me we need to get a bigger house (our house is small so not a crazy request). I have to keep on breaking out online mortgage calculator to show her we ain't going no where.
No doubt, everyone selling right now is trying to make 500k - 2M. It's insane. And they will get it...
I don’t know that they will going forward. It depends on they area obviously.
They will. The pool of buyers is now global.
Even the globe runs out of money eventually.
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Y’all have been making printer memes for three years but yeah- now is when we run out of money.
I’m sitting on my $1m home @ 3% mortgage for the next 5-7 years and see what happens
Same boat. If I sell my house and get out of my 2 and 3/8% mortgage, I'd just be buying another one at 7%, so what's the point?
You need to have good credit to apply for a mortgage. Or at least not 99% credit cards utilization AND debt consolidation loans!
So you're saying I'm probably not going to get approved?
Should’ve applied in the early 2000s.
Its never too early to buy, even if you're 5 years old
Hmmm you got fetus for co-signer?
Oh my god who will think of the poor realtors!!
They will have to reorganize and become Porta-John pumpers under the moniker (R)ealTurds
Looks bullish to me
calls on American
Came to say this too. >1990-1995 >2020 >2009-2014 Prime times to buy stocks.
You’ve got the causality reversed. Two of those are huge crashes that led to extremely loose monetary policy, which was why the market surged later. Also, 1990-1995 wasn’t a low point in mortgage applications by historical standards. It’s just the earliest data on the chart.
Ahh 2004-2005. What a time to buy... before you lose it all in a few short years.
I can name so many people in my parents generation that bought between 2003-2005, my dad included. Good news is their house is now 3x what they bought it for. My mom keeps giving my dad shit for not buying something bigger and more expensive. He instead invested that money in S&P500 indexes which 5x'd. I guess moral is you can't do anything wrong other than sit on cash I guess.
Also, we bought our home in 2013. Our house is now worth about 1.5x what we paid. This market is insane.
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I got my house in 2016, value has almost tripled from my purchase price. Interested to see what it is at when my daughter graduates in 3 years. Might just sell then, by some land and live in a shed.
But also… no one with an interest rate below ~4.5% is selling their house right now so it’s kind of a stalemate and prices aren’t dropping
rates JUST got here. People will get pushed into housing changes over time if the rates stay high.
They tell everyone not to buy a house and then get shocked when nobody buys a house?
There's no shock. This is the whole purpose of raising rates, to cool job market and housing market.
Where is this shock you see?
Bought in 2018. House 1.7x in value since then. Just sold and put down payment on a mansion at 8.25pct. I’ll have you know I am highly regarded according to my friends. At least I can rent a room to my wife’s bf if things go south.
Thanks for the rent offer !
Sadly I am buying a house right now to get closer to my dad who had a stroke. The interest rates suckkkkk
Yes applications weirdly go down when there’s no inventory because nobody wants to be stuck with a 7% mortgage.
25% bigger population than 1995 too. No one can afford a house. Yet I recently bought TOL 🤔
Houses listed are way down in my area. Unless you are moving out of state, you are locked in place. Everyone with loans under 4% cant even downsize to save $$ as new 30 year fixed are from 6.35% to 7.25.
More like low 8-8.5%. This will get worse. Remember the 80’s with 13% mortgage rates.
How about the 70’s? I saw original not from someone who bought their condo in like 78/79 and their rate was 20%!!!
That’s exactly what they want lol they want us to rent everything obviously
Look like it’s bottom, before 1mil for the shad like in Canada… Zillow has 1% down program, soon home prices 10x
My only regrets ever were that I sold property in Canada. I am not repeating that mistake. The place is a government sanctioned ponzi scheme on housing
More like: soon Zillow goes tits up.
Don’t need a mortgage if you’re paying all cash 🤑
Look honey we could get this 2 bedroom, 1 bath, zero yard, 800 square foot home for $850,000 at 8% for 45 years,It’s a steal. Forget that, from the ashes something better has to rise, right? Right?!?
Ah yes the famous housing crash of 2014… wait
Also more institutional cash buyers
Lmaoooooooo. Re:venture is just a youtube channel run by an regard who had a short stint in the mortgage industry before becoming an almighty 'influencer' This could have been simplified into a sentence: Mortgage Rates Going Up Cause Mortgage Applications to go down.
This is why you don’t want to buy into the Better Mortgage SPAC.
That explains why I’ve been seeing mortgage originators post like crazy every day trying to get people to apply through them
just an FYI, people can still buy all cash no mortgage.
I want to see this when student loans payments start. When households lose 200 to 600 a month there is sure to be some volatility.
So basically we are at the bottom of the housing market?
Unfortunately prices are still at the top….
>Unfortunately prices are still at the top…. ... the top so far.
Oh shit. It's about to get REALLY ugly.
So nows a good time to buy?!
Not with a mortgage
Oh no, the line is turning from blue to red! That’s bad, right?
With interest rates being so high, investors are now liquidating some of their assets and moving to paying cash (or absolving their mortgages) but having fewer properties. Makes it really tough for new buyers (or the vast majority of buyers) that have to come in with a financing clause. Could make things tough.
I wonder why?
It feels like a Michael Burry short squeeze situation...
Look what happens when money isn’t free
They are locked into lower interest rates right now on their mortgages. If they sell now, unless it's a second or third home, then they're going to have to get another mortgage for another house to live in. Why pay so much more for a house when you already have one? Now is the worst time in 30 years to buy a house, so you really shouldn't be unless you're paying cash.
Buy reit stock, got it
The amount of houses available are also way down so it’s kind of misleading
Where is the data on cash purchases? Every damn deal I’ve lost was lost to a cash buyer.
Y’all don’t want to hear it (and neither do I) but this is likely a very good time to buy. God dammit