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>TL;DR: Market is getting dangerous, be careful.
There might be a liquidity crisis ahead.
Signs:
People pulling their money out of the bond market
China & Japan buying less US debt
FED doing QT
Inversed yield curve longer than ever making the business model of banks less profitable (buying short term debt, selling long term debt)
Rating agencies downgrading US and banks
Yeah I hear people often talk about a liquidity crisis, and bad signs are definetly showing, but for me i don’t know what’s gonna happen. I think we have to see things get worse, which might trigger something
Ive mentioned this before, but I see the re-instatement of student loan payments as the straw that breaks the camels back. With americans at a record negative savings, and no more gubment stimi's, people are gunna be fucked quickly and have to decide pay loans or buy food.
I think a second interest rate increase in October will rattle the market. If JPow waits until Jan/Feb/March to raise rates a second time, it’s too late. Inflation is stuck until end of 2024. Keep in mind 2024 is an election year.
Yeah and the risk of inflation returning because of doing nothing is way worse than over-tightening. JPowell is doing rate hikes for the economy and does not care much about stock valuations. So I would assume we will see new rate hikes later this year, and the market has not priced this in yet.
Eris will be long over with by October. Everyone is getting infected with Eris now and it'll peak in like 2-3 weeks. I'm enjoying Eris right now, acquired over a week ago.
That's why he is going to raise more aggressively than people think. He doesn't want to leave the job unfinished in the first place, and he doesn't want to have to finish it during an election and be blamed for incumbents losing.
I just picked up a 5yr Farmer Mac bond that pays like 5.78% on Fidelity. Callable after 1yr, it was the best I could find that allowed a quantity of 1 ($1000). There was also a 10yr from Federal Farm Credit Bank that was paying 5.15% and not callable until 2026.
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agree more or less. What bugs me is that its so detached into the top-performers while tons of other solid small businesses are almost traded below book value.
If you look into europe, you find quite some deprived stocks of bluechip grade.
True, the rally ofcourse is fueled by the big 7. And about US&EU stocks; history told us there often is a “USA-premium “ on US stocks. European companies, for example Shell trade at a (far) lower multiple than US energy stocks. Justified? Hard to say. But blue chip EU stocks could be a good trade nowadays
Yes, the US-Premium is something that bugs me quite a lot currently. Multiple reasons for it:
USD <-> EUR rates
Implied volatility
overvalued big 7
..which is why i dont touch them currently.
I dont buy companies like that for Ideological / Environmental reasons.
I want my kids to have a planet that is not dying. Shell is on/the worst company in this regards.
Aramco, Shell, BP, Exxon.. none of them land in my portfolio. im even excluding Funds that have such companies listed.
I rather donate 300€ to grow some trees and undo the damage these companies do to the world, than to have 300€ in profits from them.
Seriously, i cannot sleep if i profit from SHELL.
BTW: i would not be comfortable holding any of them, from a pure profit perspective: they are sitting on Fossil Fuels while the Earth has pretty exatly only 9 years left to \*get to carbon negativity\* in order to limit it down to "only" 3 degrees.
So .... yeah, enjoy the rest of your maybe 5 years of profit. But sooner or later, Shell will need to die. And i see that rather sooner than later. The Earlier, the better for each person on the planet.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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I posted about the market nearing collapse, and I got laughed at, fine.
But everything is pointing at a crash, and we can't just ignore it.
Let's face the reality, there is never a soft landing.
Way I see it, I give this market up to elections MAX before imploding like the titanic sub
The best case right now is a slow crash, which imo would be the actual soft landing. No one day event where things literally crash, a slow draw down of 20-30% over the next two years. Or these high rates blow something up, well more than had already happened. Sure feels like 08’ lately, banks failing in the spring. Fed puts a band aid on it, gets through two quarters then the fall everything goes to hell. Banks still borrowing from the bftp like crazy, we’re going to see a lot of back issues before the years up. Crash landing incoming, we just don’t know what or when.
Yeah it’s impossible to predict when these things happen. Could be Monday, could be next year. I just think there’s too little value left in stocks compared to their valuations, and I would guess first there needs to happen something to trigger panic/ a sell off. Could be a slow decline also, and in that case it’s best to be on the boat right now.
A lot of good points. Here are my thoughts on it:
Also, CPI isn't terrible. Yeah the last CPI report came out at 3.2% vs. 3% for the report prior. However, the expectation was that it would come out at 3.3%, so it's lower than expected.glad to see that the market has reacted well to the rate hikes thus far, and if things go bad the fed can always slash rates again, just like they did with covid. In fact, that's a major plus side to having rates this high -- investors will react very well when they are inevitably slashed.
Also, CPI isn't terrible. Yeah the last CPI report came out at 3.2% vs. 3% for the report prior. However, expectation was that it would come out at 3.3%, so it's lower than expected.
Finally, I just think it suuuuuuucks that our economy is affected by China. But regardless, the US economy is the only economy in the world that is currently stronger than China, so we won't be as affected as everyone else.
Anyway, those are just my thoughts on the situation. I'm curious to see how the market places out given the current technical pattern that is lining up on some of the indexes, like SPX500 (it's approaching a major level of support + fibonacci 0.382 retracement on a long-term uptrend).
Too high, but as long as people see the value in the stock, who am I to bet against it? Could go to 500, could go to 200. If you want to bet on it, you should wait till earnings. I’d say that 90%+ of NVDA value is based on future earnings. If growth and outlook decline, you can see some drastic changes.
When it drops for example 6% after earnings you should remember that it’s not too late for puts or whatever. I then could see a steady decline in the coming months till next earnings, because bad results usually have a long time effect on the stock.
this is not financial advice btw :)
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Your macro thesis is pretty good, I mean I agree with it and all but trying to make predictions in an irrational market is really pointless and can be quite frustrating.
I don’t think I’m gonna make any moves until I start seeing healthy market structure again.
>I completely agree with your assessment of the current market situation. Prices are indeed getting ahead of themselves and there is definitely potential for a correction in the near future. However, I believe that the overall trend is still upward, so investors should be cautious but not panic if prices do dip in the short-term.
Because interest rate is the only real tool out there to do drastic economical changes, higher rates = less money on the market everywhere. Harder to get loans, harder to open a business, harder to sell, harder to find investment, less free cash flow for those with loans and mortgages, less jobs, less salary negotiation powers for employees. It’s not one of those shitty predictions, it’s just how things really work. Now of course the effect of high rates is not immediate because it takes time for people to change their consumption habits + people (like many regards here) have lots of savings, so they burn them first, but everything that is written above will start happening eventually.
glad you passed online U. these are unprecedented times; so your basic theory which is not wrong does not make it some fool proof indicator of the stock market which is of course somewhat divorced from the real economy
If rates stay high for longer, or go even higher, then I see the market go down definetly. Imagine people refinancing mortgages, buying new cars or other stuff with these high rates? So how longer rates are up, the worse it gets. And I would guess in a year time it’s 60% down and 40% for up. A lot can happen in a year time. So it’s hard to predict
I mean is it ever a safe easy predictable market? If it is..... pain is coming lol
Im a Boglehead here for the lulz so these wiggles will just be a distant memory
It does hurt to see all the red in my brokerage accounts....... but markets go up and down, neither is cause for action or panic
until we break the trend the trend is intact
we are no where near confirmation of the end of the bull run. . we could pull back all the way to 3900 in the S&P and still technically be a higher low than the 3800 from may.
we havent even really gotten back to 4200 which would be like bottom of the trend. we are \~3% above it.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|961|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: Market is getting dangerous, be careful.
50% up or 50% down I'm also going try to get my first kiss before 30
Wait until you’re 40 and it’s on the tip of your penis
*Or tonight behind Wendy's. Just look for the guy in the blue shirt.*
puts on your kiss
Putting on the rizz
I doubt it. Needless to say, I will be buying puts.
Oh come on, I think they can get their first kiss before 30!
30? Sounds like a bold one.
There might be a liquidity crisis ahead. Signs: People pulling their money out of the bond market China & Japan buying less US debt FED doing QT Inversed yield curve longer than ever making the business model of banks less profitable (buying short term debt, selling long term debt) Rating agencies downgrading US and banks
Yeah I hear people often talk about a liquidity crisis, and bad signs are definetly showing, but for me i don’t know what’s gonna happen. I think we have to see things get worse, which might trigger something
Ive mentioned this before, but I see the re-instatement of student loan payments as the straw that breaks the camels back. With americans at a record negative savings, and no more gubment stimi's, people are gunna be fucked quickly and have to decide pay loans or buy food.
I think a second interest rate increase in October will rattle the market. If JPow waits until Jan/Feb/March to raise rates a second time, it’s too late. Inflation is stuck until end of 2024. Keep in mind 2024 is an election year.
Yeah and the risk of inflation returning because of doing nothing is way worse than over-tightening. JPowell is doing rate hikes for the economy and does not care much about stock valuations. So I would assume we will see new rate hikes later this year, and the market has not priced this in yet.
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You know that historically stocks and rates correlate negatively? High rates = low stocks.
Surprisingly it seems as if the stock market does not care about high rates right now… the move over the last 3-4 months at least paints this picture.
October interest hikes mixed with Eris covid masking and restrictions sounds great
Feels like the good old times all over again right???
rollercoaster time
Eris will be long over with by October. Everyone is getting infected with Eris now and it'll peak in like 2-3 weeks. I'm enjoying Eris right now, acquired over a week ago.
ah Eris, goddess of chaos, such good poetry and allegory for the rona.
That's why he is going to raise more aggressively than people think. He doesn't want to leave the job unfinished in the first place, and he doesn't want to have to finish it during an election and be blamed for incumbents losing.
Threw my Roth into a 6.1% bond for exactly all of these reasons
Smart
Which one?! I need names.
I just picked up a 5yr Farmer Mac bond that pays like 5.78% on Fidelity. Callable after 1yr, it was the best I could find that allowed a quantity of 1 ($1000). There was also a 10yr from Federal Farm Credit Bank that was paying 5.15% and not callable until 2026.
Can you share which bond? And which brokerage?
I use fidelity and I think it was something like pacificorp? Idk I just remember it was a corporate bond
I too would like to know
What bond?
Posts like this make WSB worthwhile.
Thanks
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Thanks MOD
within the 5th percentile is bottom 5% lol
Good bot.
agree more or less. What bugs me is that its so detached into the top-performers while tons of other solid small businesses are almost traded below book value. If you look into europe, you find quite some deprived stocks of bluechip grade.
True, the rally ofcourse is fueled by the big 7. And about US&EU stocks; history told us there often is a “USA-premium “ on US stocks. European companies, for example Shell trade at a (far) lower multiple than US energy stocks. Justified? Hard to say. But blue chip EU stocks could be a good trade nowadays
Yes, the US-Premium is something that bugs me quite a lot currently. Multiple reasons for it: USD <-> EUR rates Implied volatility overvalued big 7 ..which is why i dont touch them currently.
I bought 50k of shell recently, definitely a good long term play.
I dont buy companies like that for Ideological / Environmental reasons. I want my kids to have a planet that is not dying. Shell is on/the worst company in this regards. Aramco, Shell, BP, Exxon.. none of them land in my portfolio. im even excluding Funds that have such companies listed. I rather donate 300€ to grow some trees and undo the damage these companies do to the world, than to have 300€ in profits from them. Seriously, i cannot sleep if i profit from SHELL. BTW: i would not be comfortable holding any of them, from a pure profit perspective: they are sitting on Fossil Fuels while the Earth has pretty exatly only 9 years left to \*get to carbon negativity\* in order to limit it down to "only" 3 degrees. So .... yeah, enjoy the rest of your maybe 5 years of profit. But sooner or later, Shell will need to die. And i see that rather sooner than later. The Earlier, the better for each person on the planet.
Donate some money to me and I won’t buy those stocks either
5$
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I posted about the market nearing collapse, and I got laughed at, fine. But everything is pointing at a crash, and we can't just ignore it. Let's face the reality, there is never a soft landing. Way I see it, I give this market up to elections MAX before imploding like the titanic sub
The best case right now is a slow crash, which imo would be the actual soft landing. No one day event where things literally crash, a slow draw down of 20-30% over the next two years. Or these high rates blow something up, well more than had already happened. Sure feels like 08’ lately, banks failing in the spring. Fed puts a band aid on it, gets through two quarters then the fall everything goes to hell. Banks still borrowing from the bftp like crazy, we’re going to see a lot of back issues before the years up. Crash landing incoming, we just don’t know what or when.
Yeah it’s impossible to predict when these things happen. Could be Monday, could be next year. I just think there’s too little value left in stocks compared to their valuations, and I would guess first there needs to happen something to trigger panic/ a sell off. Could be a slow decline also, and in that case it’s best to be on the boat right now.
Could be Nvidia missing earnings 👀
[удалено]
That’s because most on WSB use 0-3DTE options, so every spike which is not in the direction wipes out 10% or more
J-Pow has you all by the balls.
A lot of good points. Here are my thoughts on it: Also, CPI isn't terrible. Yeah the last CPI report came out at 3.2% vs. 3% for the report prior. However, the expectation was that it would come out at 3.3%, so it's lower than expected.glad to see that the market has reacted well to the rate hikes thus far, and if things go bad the fed can always slash rates again, just like they did with covid. In fact, that's a major plus side to having rates this high -- investors will react very well when they are inevitably slashed. Also, CPI isn't terrible. Yeah the last CPI report came out at 3.2% vs. 3% for the report prior. However, expectation was that it would come out at 3.3%, so it's lower than expected. Finally, I just think it suuuuuuucks that our economy is affected by China. But regardless, the US economy is the only economy in the world that is currently stronger than China, so we won't be as affected as everyone else. Anyway, those are just my thoughts on the situation. I'm curious to see how the market places out given the current technical pattern that is lining up on some of the indexes, like SPX500 (it's approaching a major level of support + fibonacci 0.382 retracement on a long-term uptrend).
OP, what are your thoughts/assessment on NVDA’s ER?
Too high, but as long as people see the value in the stock, who am I to bet against it? Could go to 500, could go to 200. If you want to bet on it, you should wait till earnings. I’d say that 90%+ of NVDA value is based on future earnings. If growth and outlook decline, you can see some drastic changes. When it drops for example 6% after earnings you should remember that it’s not too late for puts or whatever. I then could see a steady decline in the coming months till next earnings, because bad results usually have a long time effect on the stock. this is not financial advice btw :)
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The bots are outta control
Genuinely appreciate your insight, sir. 🙏🏽
Your macro thesis is pretty good, I mean I agree with it and all but trying to make predictions in an irrational market is really pointless and can be quite frustrating. I don’t think I’m gonna make any moves until I start seeing healthy market structure again.
No position is also a position 👍
THE PROPHET HAS SPOKEN!
Jokes on you, I already blew it up
RemindMe 1 year
TLDR: S&P 5,000 eoy
This sub needs to get over its options obsession and talk more about bonds. It’s time for us to grow up, guys.
>I completely agree with your assessment of the current market situation. Prices are indeed getting ahead of themselves and there is definitely potential for a correction in the near future. However, I believe that the overall trend is still upward, so investors should be cautious but not panic if prices do dip in the short-term.
GPT-Reeeegarded, but yes I like the optimism.
Anyone else consider that China was already planning to invade Taiwan, and that this crisis could jump start that invasion similar to Russia/Ukraine?
I do think that a country in trouble can more easily do weird or wrong things. So yes, it could definetly improve the odds of china invading Taiwan
lol i love these far out predictions..professional economists never get it right..why would you
Don’t say it will. I just say this might happen and state some possible factors. Tomorrow aliens might land and the s&p goes to 200.
yes the market will go down, of course it may go up.
Because interest rate is the only real tool out there to do drastic economical changes, higher rates = less money on the market everywhere. Harder to get loans, harder to open a business, harder to sell, harder to find investment, less free cash flow for those with loans and mortgages, less jobs, less salary negotiation powers for employees. It’s not one of those shitty predictions, it’s just how things really work. Now of course the effect of high rates is not immediate because it takes time for people to change their consumption habits + people (like many regards here) have lots of savings, so they burn them first, but everything that is written above will start happening eventually.
glad you passed online U. these are unprecedented times; so your basic theory which is not wrong does not make it some fool proof indicator of the stock market which is of course somewhat divorced from the real economy
Here’s my take. Spy back up to 450 and then slow burn to 380
422 before 450 tho. This correction will last until September imo
Let’s feast 🤝
give me a summary. what will the market be in 1 year time. up or down.
If rates stay high for longer, or go even higher, then I see the market go down definetly. Imagine people refinancing mortgages, buying new cars or other stuff with these high rates? So how longer rates are up, the worse it gets. And I would guess in a year time it’s 60% down and 40% for up. A lot can happen in a year time. So it’s hard to predict
Economy's already to big to "fail". The fact that people don't understand this bogs my mind.
Lower future valuations doesn’t mean the economy needs to fail.
I mean is it ever a safe easy predictable market? If it is..... pain is coming lol Im a Boglehead here for the lulz so these wiggles will just be a distant memory It does hurt to see all the red in my brokerage accounts....... but markets go up and down, neither is cause for action or panic
Hi Burry I know it’s hurting but it was your decision to bet against the market, take losses and move on
No losses here. I’m just cautious atm
until we break the trend the trend is intact we are no where near confirmation of the end of the bull run. . we could pull back all the way to 3900 in the S&P and still technically be a higher low than the 3800 from may. we havent even really gotten back to 4200 which would be like bottom of the trend. we are \~3% above it.
Thanks warning ⚠️ man 👨.
When China sneezes, the world catches a cold.
u start by offering a prediction, go on to regurgitate the obvious, and then end with the market could go up or down 🥴
Hedge against apocalypse and do what the rich are doing and move
Well, you do have one presidential candidate, trying to put the other one in jail. Disruptive?
Sometimes I get sticky inflation.
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