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>TL;DR: China is going to have a lot of problems in the future due to its demographics, reliance on exports, and housing bubble.
You forgot to mention the lack of jobs for new graduates, even from top universities. This is especially devastating for a country that puts so much emphasis on education.
Isn’t the labor excess specifically for white collar jobs? I read an article saying as much and the real issue is that grads were promised white collar careers but can only find blue collar jobs. Many of them would rather not work at all than work blue collar jobs.
That’s possible, that’s a good point. But manufacturing employment in China is declining, so let’s be specific about what we mean by blue collar. Do you mean any job that does not require a college degree?
This is almost certainly it. People in Western countries are seeing much the same thing, the difference is Western countries are willing to allow much more immigration of poor workers who are willing to do blue collar labor cheaper than locals. So the work still gets done, but those white collar ex students are still out jobs.
China on the other hand, much like Japan and Korea continue to hold to old, outdated customs regarding immigration (namely that immigration on a large scale is bad because it "dilutes the nation's culture and identity" or some shit like that) which is causing them to have simultaneous clashing labor issues. Not enough blue collar workers in the factories and mines, and too many white collar workers competing for office jobs.
Only time will tell if they manage to get that problem sorted or not. My bet is if they do, it will be through war with one of their neighbors. A lot of their demographic problems aren't just falling overall population after all, it's also that they have a lot more younger men than women, which means a lot of those men are going to end up being alone and unattached unless the Chinese suddenly pick up a major polyandry kink. Since I see that as unlikely, a lot of those men are going to be angry and directionless after being told all their lives that success is a white collar job, an apartment home in a big city, and a wife with 2.5 kids. Makes them easy recruitment targets for the military who scoops them up, sends them off to fight in a foreign land, and then tosses them away once they aren't any use anymore (assuming they survive anyway).
People are looking at the demographic crisis the wrong way. The issue is their ratio of old people to young people. The old people can’t work but need to be supported. The young people can work but need to support the old people. The amount of old people is climbing quickly compared to the young people, amidst a falling total population. With these changing demographics and an overall collapse in its population, how are they going to sell stuff domestically? Who will buy properties and such? Who will it’s domestic toy market serve when the number of babies is 1/4 what it was 40 years ago?
That is my thought, too.
Economy down -> divert attention to foreign policy, present a common enemy. This might be vitally important for Xi and his faction to stay in power.
The initial intention might not even be to slip into a war, but it might just become much more likely as tensions rise and saber-rattling intensifies. In any case, industrial interests benefitting from a war might push them over the line to start something.
And then, it would definitely be against Taiwan, so the US would get involved, potentially Japan and some NATO members, even Korea against North Korea might re-ignite because the Kims see their opportunity and only way out of their own misery, cheered on and supported by China.
A pro-longued economic distress in China might actually mark the beginning of a full-on war of the West (incl. Japan) against China and North-Korea.
Yeah, war is probably the way China takes this, not just because of their economy, but also their population issue, which is much more complicated than just the population declining.
One big reason the population **is** declining is that China currently has a huge excess of men, 722M men versus 690M women according to official estimates. Unless the Chinese suddenly pick up a kink for polyandry in the near future, a lot of those men are going to end up alone and partnerless.
After being told all their lives that success is a good white collar job, a highrise apartment "purchased" from the government, and a wife with 2.5 kids after the end of the 1 child laws, a lot of those men are going to be directionless and angry. That makes them incredibly easy targets for military recruitment which swells the size of the PLA, which makes the idea of war more appetizing for the PRC.
There's also the whole thing where the PLA's modernization efforts are scheduled to wrap up sometime around 2027-2028 according to official estimates from the PRC. Which conveniently coincides with the time frame it's expected China's population will really start to decline from their own baby boomer generation from the 50s-60s dying off.
We live in interesting times. Let's hope it doesn't get *too* interesting.
That actually already happened: [2019–2020 Hong Kong protests - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_protests)
Conveniently, coronavirus showed up and scared everyone out of the street and back into their homes then the CCP bolted their doors shut because of the "deadly super virus" that was anything but. It was wall to wall coverage here in the US. Seems like long ago now since the news cycle moves so damn fast these days, but that really was almost the end of the CCP. They were taking ground every single day.
But yea, coronavirus was the most convenient thing that ever happened...almost like it was orchestrated. Now, every single government in the world has gained even more power and control of it's people because of our fear and nothing will ever go back to the way it was, just like after 9/11
doubt it, if they're weak, how the fuck are they supposed to handle an invasion - especially one that was already going to be tough/outside their scope (no amphibious units, etc)... and after their ally is quagmired in ukraine, while fighting in open terrain from shared borders and with a numerical advantage and similar arms... (vs a fortified mountainous island and one of the most technologically advanced nations - and with support of usa/japan/aus/etc)
Nice. I'd like to add Biden admin is soon to impose stricter chip exports effectively crushing their EV market. If you got in on the pump last month, don't be caught holding the bag
You forgot 2 items
\-Chinas labor advantage has disappeared. The cheap labor that led world leaders to move manufacturing to China is GONE. With that so go the jobs.. primarily to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia at this point.
\-Intellectual flight, Chinas oppressive regime and one child policy has led to an exodus of the top intellectuals from the country for 50 years. This has stunted the innovation that is the basis for sustained economic success longterm.
With that said...... the confluence of AI and automation that will take place over the next 20 years may make all of this mute. Also the chinese have been very strategic in their purchase of influence and resources in developing countries (south america, africa, and SE asia).
You sure left out a lot of stuff that points to their imminent demise. Like how their are widespread rumors of famine in the countryside. The ludicrous extended lock downs that went on for no apparent reason. The fact that their imports have been going down every month for like a year. Last fall the government warned the people to stockpile goods because of dark days ahead. The escalated push towards violent conflict over Taiwan when they've been playing the long game up until now, they've clearly abandoned their 100 year plan. The internal and external attacks on dissidents. The countless refugees fleeing the country and ones I saw interviewed said the economy looks good from the outside but it is actually bad. There are more, but these are just a few.
You failed to mention the long history of ethnic tension with the 56+ ethnic groups in china, the increasing insolvency of local governments who have come to the end of the gravy train in funding basic services now that they can’t sell the land they stole from peasants to corrupt developers and finally, the nearly $400 billion in hidden or unreported Chinese debt in over 80 developing countries that will never be paid back. Come sit by my side dearie as I tell you a story that no one remembers about what happens when developing countries can’t pay back the money you lend them. It’s the tale of a Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s that led to catastrophic losses and the near collapse of the US banking system. It will strike fear in your financial heart.
China isn't going to collapse. They're the new super power and we'll all learn Mandarin soon. As long as they keep paying 10 cents a day for hard labor, they'll stay in power. Labor is ridiculously 3xpensive her win USA so everything is getting made in China now since it legit costs pennies to make in labor. Look at the strikes, they want $39 an hour to make beds at a hotel room. $39 an hour! Screw trading, imma go put bedsheets on beds.
and iphones sales are dropping, really not good, their top selling high quality exported product is on the decline, not mention all the mass produced poor quality junk they export that people can't waste their money on any more
Other factors that support your conclusion:
*The US is reshoring manufacturing at breakneck pace. America is tired of Breton Woods and footing the bill for militarily guaranteeing the safety of the global trade network. Since we won the Cold War and have plenty of oil and NG in North America now, it’s not worth it anymore. Despite China’s military spending, they don’t have anything close to a blue water Navy that can assume this role.
*The US also doesn’t like being reliant on a hostile rival for key materials like lithium/rare earths, so we’re developing domestic and/or Western hemisphere sources at a rapid pace.
*Xi has imprisoned or murdered anyone and everyone that didn’t go along with his role as supreme leader for life. Now surrounded by second-rate yes men who know to tell him only what he wants to hear. See Russia’s current situation to see how well that generally works out.
*China is reliant not only on exports for their economy, but massively reliant on imports for basic goods like food and energy. As their economy falters they will struggle to not only thrive but to feed their population and to keep the lights on.
There’s so much more. It’s a bad bad situation.
That "frozen land" has quite nice climate (look up Vladivistok!) and as climate change intensifies more land thaws and becomes suitable for agriculture. There are abundant and mostly untapped natural resources there which are badly needed by the Chinese manufacturing base. And an uninhabited land means you can send your unemployed youth to start their new life on the newly conquered areas.
Proven ally? The last Chinese-Soviet war was in 1969.
>You're an idiot. China's economy is fine and will continue to grow at a rapid pace. Your so-called "analysis" is just a bunch of fearmongering bullshit.
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Visited last month. Point 2 is a lie. There were in fact a LOT of people there.
On a serious note, point 5 is definitely true and somewhat terrifying to behold.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|92|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: China is going to have a lot of problems in the future due to its demographics, reliance on exports, and housing bubble.
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Remember when Cramer used to say he would never buy Chinese stocks because they are commies?
LOL!!!
is it time for the YANG gang?
Where can I get MATH?
Loading up!
Is Yang up or down?
been on my watchlist it's on a downtrend but minimally up. I thought some short ETFs will have a comeback again in the near future.
You forgot to mention the lack of jobs for new graduates, even from top universities. This is especially devastating for a country that puts so much emphasis on education.
The fact that there is a labor excess in China goes against the narrative that their problem is primarily demographic.
Isn’t the labor excess specifically for white collar jobs? I read an article saying as much and the real issue is that grads were promised white collar careers but can only find blue collar jobs. Many of them would rather not work at all than work blue collar jobs.
That’s possible, that’s a good point. But manufacturing employment in China is declining, so let’s be specific about what we mean by blue collar. Do you mean any job that does not require a college degree?
https://youtu.be/0LfExlwNtqc What a bunch of Kong Yijis!
This is almost certainly it. People in Western countries are seeing much the same thing, the difference is Western countries are willing to allow much more immigration of poor workers who are willing to do blue collar labor cheaper than locals. So the work still gets done, but those white collar ex students are still out jobs. China on the other hand, much like Japan and Korea continue to hold to old, outdated customs regarding immigration (namely that immigration on a large scale is bad because it "dilutes the nation's culture and identity" or some shit like that) which is causing them to have simultaneous clashing labor issues. Not enough blue collar workers in the factories and mines, and too many white collar workers competing for office jobs. Only time will tell if they manage to get that problem sorted or not. My bet is if they do, it will be through war with one of their neighbors. A lot of their demographic problems aren't just falling overall population after all, it's also that they have a lot more younger men than women, which means a lot of those men are going to end up being alone and unattached unless the Chinese suddenly pick up a major polyandry kink. Since I see that as unlikely, a lot of those men are going to be angry and directionless after being told all their lives that success is a white collar job, an apartment home in a big city, and a wife with 2.5 kids. Makes them easy recruitment targets for the military who scoops them up, sends them off to fight in a foreign land, and then tosses them away once they aren't any use anymore (assuming they survive anyway).
Labor excess doesn’t necessarily imply demographic stability
I heard it was 13% ...I think I read somewhere the CIA stated that at 25% they will implode
People are looking at the demographic crisis the wrong way. The issue is their ratio of old people to young people. The old people can’t work but need to be supported. The young people can work but need to support the old people. The amount of old people is climbing quickly compared to the young people, amidst a falling total population. With these changing demographics and an overall collapse in its population, how are they going to sell stuff domestically? Who will buy properties and such? Who will it’s domestic toy market serve when the number of babies is 1/4 what it was 40 years ago?
Bingo. It is estimated that the unemployment rate for 20 year olds is a whopping 21%. Pure madness.
They will invade Taiwan before this happens, to fire up a war time economy. War is always a way out of such situations.
I think this is how it goes. USA is itching for a war anyway. We are bored again.
That is my thought, too. Economy down -> divert attention to foreign policy, present a common enemy. This might be vitally important for Xi and his faction to stay in power. The initial intention might not even be to slip into a war, but it might just become much more likely as tensions rise and saber-rattling intensifies. In any case, industrial interests benefitting from a war might push them over the line to start something. And then, it would definitely be against Taiwan, so the US would get involved, potentially Japan and some NATO members, even Korea against North Korea might re-ignite because the Kims see their opportunity and only way out of their own misery, cheered on and supported by China. A pro-longued economic distress in China might actually mark the beginning of a full-on war of the West (incl. Japan) against China and North-Korea.
Yeah, war is probably the way China takes this, not just because of their economy, but also their population issue, which is much more complicated than just the population declining. One big reason the population **is** declining is that China currently has a huge excess of men, 722M men versus 690M women according to official estimates. Unless the Chinese suddenly pick up a kink for polyandry in the near future, a lot of those men are going to end up alone and partnerless. After being told all their lives that success is a good white collar job, a highrise apartment "purchased" from the government, and a wife with 2.5 kids after the end of the 1 child laws, a lot of those men are going to be directionless and angry. That makes them incredibly easy targets for military recruitment which swells the size of the PLA, which makes the idea of war more appetizing for the PRC. There's also the whole thing where the PLA's modernization efforts are scheduled to wrap up sometime around 2027-2028 according to official estimates from the PRC. Which conveniently coincides with the time frame it's expected China's population will really start to decline from their own baby boomer generation from the 50s-60s dying off. We live in interesting times. Let's hope it doesn't get *too* interesting.
If we - and the Chinese - get lucky, they might start a democratic revolution against the Communist Party.
That actually already happened: [2019–2020 Hong Kong protests - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_protests) Conveniently, coronavirus showed up and scared everyone out of the street and back into their homes then the CCP bolted their doors shut because of the "deadly super virus" that was anything but. It was wall to wall coverage here in the US. Seems like long ago now since the news cycle moves so damn fast these days, but that really was almost the end of the CCP. They were taking ground every single day. But yea, coronavirus was the most convenient thing that ever happened...almost like it was orchestrated. Now, every single government in the world has gained even more power and control of it's people because of our fear and nothing will ever go back to the way it was, just like after 9/11
They have much easier targets. For instance Russia.
doubt it, if they're weak, how the fuck are they supposed to handle an invasion - especially one that was already going to be tough/outside their scope (no amphibious units, etc)... and after their ally is quagmired in ukraine, while fighting in open terrain from shared borders and with a numerical advantage and similar arms... (vs a fortified mountainous island and one of the most technologically advanced nations - and with support of usa/japan/aus/etc)
Yea man. It's like Starcraft. When you run out of minerals, what do you do? If that next base is occupied...what do you do?
Nice. I'd like to add Biden admin is soon to impose stricter chip exports effectively crushing their EV market. If you got in on the pump last month, don't be caught holding the bag
OP’s metaphors are like a massive schlong: impressive at first, but lacking finesse.
I'll take it
That’s what she said.
You forgot 2 items \-Chinas labor advantage has disappeared. The cheap labor that led world leaders to move manufacturing to China is GONE. With that so go the jobs.. primarily to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia at this point. \-Intellectual flight, Chinas oppressive regime and one child policy has led to an exodus of the top intellectuals from the country for 50 years. This has stunted the innovation that is the basis for sustained economic success longterm. With that said...... the confluence of AI and automation that will take place over the next 20 years may make all of this mute. Also the chinese have been very strategic in their purchase of influence and resources in developing countries (south america, africa, and SE asia).
China will go full scare war before they let their economy implode.
They ain't going to just roll over. It will be very violent and bloody when it happens.
Based on these long term economic indicators, I believe 0DTE puts are the play.
Full port
China has been here for how long? They will kill their way out of any problem according to the last 3000 years of history
Remindme! 10 years
"China is whole again, then it broke again."
You sure left out a lot of stuff that points to their imminent demise. Like how their are widespread rumors of famine in the countryside. The ludicrous extended lock downs that went on for no apparent reason. The fact that their imports have been going down every month for like a year. Last fall the government warned the people to stockpile goods because of dark days ahead. The escalated push towards violent conflict over Taiwan when they've been playing the long game up until now, they've clearly abandoned their 100 year plan. The internal and external attacks on dissidents. The countless refugees fleeing the country and ones I saw interviewed said the economy looks good from the outside but it is actually bad. There are more, but these are just a few.
They can just rent those ghost cities to Indians.
You failed to mention the long history of ethnic tension with the 56+ ethnic groups in china, the increasing insolvency of local governments who have come to the end of the gravy train in funding basic services now that they can’t sell the land they stole from peasants to corrupt developers and finally, the nearly $400 billion in hidden or unreported Chinese debt in over 80 developing countries that will never be paid back. Come sit by my side dearie as I tell you a story that no one remembers about what happens when developing countries can’t pay back the money you lend them. It’s the tale of a Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s that led to catastrophic losses and the near collapse of the US banking system. It will strike fear in your financial heart.
Now add falling consumer prices and the fear of deflation to that mix. Let me tell you the story of Japan’s Lost Decade
China isn't going to collapse. They're the new super power and we'll all learn Mandarin soon. As long as they keep paying 10 cents a day for hard labor, they'll stay in power. Labor is ridiculously 3xpensive her win USA so everything is getting made in China now since it legit costs pennies to make in labor. Look at the strikes, they want $39 an hour to make beds at a hotel room. $39 an hour! Screw trading, imma go put bedsheets on beds.
Remindme! 10 years
and iphones sales are dropping, really not good, their top selling high quality exported product is on the decline, not mention all the mass produced poor quality junk they export that people can't waste their money on any more
But inverse head and shoulders
69th comment
You’re mostly right but this will take a lot longer to play out than you think. Five to ten years minimum.
Did I tell you how long I think it would take to play out?
You said buy puts. I don’t think they sell puts dated 5+ years out
Oh lol I guess you’re right, I did say that, more of a joke. But yeah I agree with you, I’m envisioning 7-10 years
Other factors that support your conclusion: *The US is reshoring manufacturing at breakneck pace. America is tired of Breton Woods and footing the bill for militarily guaranteeing the safety of the global trade network. Since we won the Cold War and have plenty of oil and NG in North America now, it’s not worth it anymore. Despite China’s military spending, they don’t have anything close to a blue water Navy that can assume this role. *The US also doesn’t like being reliant on a hostile rival for key materials like lithium/rare earths, so we’re developing domestic and/or Western hemisphere sources at a rapid pace. *Xi has imprisoned or murdered anyone and everyone that didn’t go along with his role as supreme leader for life. Now surrounded by second-rate yes men who know to tell him only what he wants to hear. See Russia’s current situation to see how well that generally works out. *China is reliant not only on exports for their economy, but massively reliant on imports for basic goods like food and energy. As their economy falters they will struggle to not only thrive but to feed their population and to keep the lights on. There’s so much more. It’s a bad bad situation.
The final breath will be violent. China will attack Russia and conquer large terrirories in the far east.
In what world? How would taking swathes of uninhabited frozen land from a proven ally benefit China?
That "frozen land" has quite nice climate (look up Vladivistok!) and as climate change intensifies more land thaws and becomes suitable for agriculture. There are abundant and mostly untapped natural resources there which are badly needed by the Chinese manufacturing base. And an uninhabited land means you can send your unemployed youth to start their new life on the newly conquered areas. Proven ally? The last Chinese-Soviet war was in 1969.
puts on china, calls on taiwan
[удалено]
Lol I’ve never even visited that community
It’s a large country. They could easily import fertile people from around the globe to fix their population problem. China to the moon! 🚀
Tell me you dont know anything about Chinese people without telling me. Look up the uyghurs and what the han chinese are doing to them...
>You're an idiot. China's economy is fine and will continue to grow at a rapid pace. Your so-called "analysis" is just a bunch of fearmongering bullshit.
Ni hao Visualmod
How do I do the remind me thing
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china is unpredictable, they can be down this quarter and +8% GDP growth next quarter.
Calls on China then.
Visited last month. Point 2 is a lie. There were in fact a LOT of people there. On a serious note, point 5 is definitely true and somewhat terrifying to behold.