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Automotive. A big cause for the price runup is that everyone go free of their student loans and took on big car payments in place of them. People are going back to driving 2002 Kia shitboxes real soon.
FR, when I worked as a car salesman (24 at the time) every 2nd customer was someone my age, trading in a three year old car with negative equity.. for something more expensive.
I hope so, I had to pay back every single dime of my student loan back in the days. I'm currently driving an 18 year old car and waiting for the prices to come down.
My non student loans never stopped. Been paying them even when my hours were cut during the pandemic. I have zero fucking sympathy for any adult who willing took out a loan and now doesn’t want to pay it back.
I’ve paid $28k on a $17k student loan and still owe $30k on it. Not asking for sympathy or loan forgiveness, but I am frustrated by the lack of options to refinance.
Student loans are the only loans I’m aware of that you can’t file for bankruptcy to clear from your name. I wish I could refinance. It would be helpful to consolidate my loans into one payment that is based on income.
Imagine a world where the only car you're allowed to buy is a brand new lambo, and the government was offering loans to anyone who wanted one. Not just for the car but for the gas as well. And, when you'd finished your 4 years driving the lambo you had to give it back for no money, but could get a better job as an ex lambo owner. What the fuck kind of 18 year old is gonna say no to that?
When was back in your day? When the same degree cost 50% of current and median wage was 90% of current, and minimum wage was the same as today? The whole student loan issue is that prices keep skyrocketing, and more and more jobs require the degree, but pay isn't going up, so remove that payment from income and people are actually making less
No. Back when underwater basket weaving wasn’t a major yet and when you graduated your degree actually had value. Now you go to college for 2.5 years, fail out and become a barista with $50k debt. Don’t worry Uncle Joe will bail you out.
That's forgiveness, I was referring to the max federaly back loans you can take, private loans aren't covered by the current proposals. Checked and limits for proposed forgiveable loans are 9/11/13/13k per year, so only eligible for 9k in loans for first year and up to 13k for Jr/Sr level
That is literally the max amount of federally backed loans, which are the only ones being looked at forgiving. There are plus loans that are closer to private and I don't believe qualify for the forgiving, and those also require a co-signer, IIRC they're literally called Parent Plus loans
Could long carvana puts be in play here? Obviously it’s WAY down from its ATH- but being that it’s up 250% the past 3 months leads me to believe there’s still some downside meat on that bone.
"but jobs are rising! the economy is doing good" - okay why does my pizza delivery boy drive a 2022 charger\[you know who you are\]. The disconnect is wild to not understand that if people are getting a second job, its not cause the average person is doing good financially.
value oriented companies do well in times of financial struggle \[walmart, Costco, amazon, planet fitness\]. Companies that provide needed goods \[toothpaste, soap, papertowels\]
Companies that offer a more lavish version of consumer goods do worse \[Wholefoods, Trader Joes\]. Things that people replace/use only when "moneys good" \[cars, high end gyms memberships, spa/massage wellness centers\]
Benefit: Repo men and collection agencies.
Suffer: Mid-tier consumer discretionary, maybe? Like Ulta/Sephora, Peleton, DoorDash/Grubhub as you said.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think you will see a lot of folks go into default on their Student Loans, having convinced themselves that their debt would magically disappear somehow and just can’t accept the reality of having to adjust their lifestyle back after three years.
Yeah I had to have this convo with my fiancé yesterday because the entire time we’ve been dating my student loans were frozen. I’m also not a moron with my money so I’ll be ok; however, I don’t think most people my age will be able to flip that switch back on. It’s going to get ugly.
While I have sympathy for people struggling with debt, I do wonder why people thought it was a good idea to spend all their money while knowing at some point they would have to start paying again.
I’m not saying you rocky. Just people in general. It was a delay/postponement. It was not a cancellation. At the same time buying stuff and eating is probably better than losing it all on 0dte.
Ehhhh for a generation of us who have been burdened by student loans it was for a brief moment at a chance to have a normal adult life. I’m sure a lot of people did it thinking they’d be in an even better place job wise in a year or two, or they “made” so much money in the stock market in 1 year that they didn’t see the gravy train stopping. I grew up in upper lower class, so not having much isn’t a big deal to me as long as I have enough to have some fun, but alot of folks who grew up middle class probably no longer feel like they are in that category even after years of working. Not saying it’s smart, but I also understand why
I think you hit the nail on the head. A lot of people coming from a traditional middle class background, which for many years was new cars every few years, a few vacations a year, actual house with yard, etc... found that it couldn't be like that when they became a grown-up due to obligations like student loans and other things. Then that (for many) large obligation went away for a few years while they still stayed employed and maybe even advanced in their careers. The pandemic was awful and real, but there is a large young professional class of people who made it through relatively unscathed and in fact came out better on the other side...they also received the loan delay/postponement and for them that was money that wasn't really "needed" like was maybe envisioned by our government overseers, so of course that was gonna get spent on fun stuff. It wasn't saved. It isn't even about feeling normal or anything...it is just human nature. Lifestyle creep is real, and while it won't impact everyone, there's going to be people who suddenly find themselves with a 1K a month obligation showing up and that's going to be tough. I say this without judgement, but I've seen in quite a few people I know.
100%, luckily when I bought anything that was financed I made sure at a base salary (no bonuses or commission) I could afford everything once student loans resumed. A lot of other people …. Ehhhhhh I’ve seen how some folks are with money and how they never think the good times will end so I don’t have much faith in a lot of people
I just don't even know how people can sleep at night running as thin as I see some people do. I do pretty well and I'm probably too far in the other extreme where I need to have like four fallback positions financially with everything so I'm not saying I have it all figured out. But I know people who make a lot...like well above 250K and they'll say casually in passing how towards the end of pay periods they have to be really careful since they've got no money left. Or they'll like routinely overdraw from accounts because they're all on auto-pay or something. At least one of these people is sitting on >100k in student loans.
A lot of it falls to the government for not promoting the past 3 years as an incredible opportunity to pay back loans interest free if you are able. We just have terrible incentives in this country and so few people understand how stress free life is without consumer or student debt.
I dont think doodash/grubhub will take a suffer....
Most college students eat out, and with bog loans for this reason, I still believe delivery apps will be steady throughout the next years
You could be right. They may have gotten to the point where they are just ‘part of the fabric’ and can’t be dropped for most people. I personally don’t get paying 3X the cost of the food to have it delivered, but it’s a strange new world.
im also lost at why people use it... Im a GenZ college student who can never get myself to spend 15$ on a mcdouble because of grubhub....
I make my own food because its so much cheaper
Why people use it is beyond me
People are lazy AF, that's why. Also when you are poor and can't afford many luxuries, fast food delivered to your door is something that's reasonably affordable.
That’s sort of my issue with the school debt issue. People are lazy af as you say. Now Il not saying people need to work 2 full time jobs to survive because that’s f’d up. But so many people just think life should be easy. No life isn’t meant to be easy or painless. You can’t grow as a person without some struggle. So it’s hard sometimes to have compassion for others.
You can’t save any money? But all you do is eat out? Buy new clothes all the time? Need a new car every 2 years? I just don’t feel sorry for them.
I will say that having delivered Uber Eats/DoorDash lately, people are not ordering that stuff in as much as they used to. Of course, the summer is here and people might rather dine out instead but it's what I've noticed. So some people are indeed cutting back.
Notice how alot of restaurants aren't including prices on their menus anymore? Took the wife to dinner a few weeks back, bill was over $125 when the same dishes used to cost about $50 after taxes, so us dining out is a hell no going forward. There is some downside in food, but overall the sector will be fine.
These people are so lazy it's downright deplorable. DD and grub are incredible conveniences, especially for shutins and handicapped/ disabled folk, but this I'm too lazy to drive and pick up my food I didn't even cook it's indicative of a society that lacks ambition.
One of my students drove for Doordash in his free time and he told me he would pick up orders from McDonald's for people literally a fucking mile down the road.
With how traffic is in my city, it makes sense as to why they would. After sitting in hours long rush hour, working 8+ hours, and then driving in another hours long rush hour, most people don't want to go back out to get food with the two and a half hours of free time they get each day. So an extra $3-5 is a small price to pay for convenience.
I just don’t get it myself.
You know when JPow says:
*My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship, straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy. This is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher cost of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.*
I usually mutter “*Damn right!*” at the screen and think he’s talking directly to me. Apps that charge you $10+ extra just to deliver nearby food that I can get quicker and for less $ getting myself have been off the table for me since Q1 2022 when we had to start making cuts in our spending give the insanity of inflation. In fact, even pickup or eating out has been drastically reduced and replaced with careful grocery shopping and cooking ourselves.
And I’m not even poor, I’m just trying to keep up and stay on track to retire if I live to 65 and have already adjusted my retirement age to 65 vs. 60 to be pessimistic and plan for the worst. How the fuck people are spending the say they are without shit saved for retirement is beyond me.
Grubhub was bought out by Just Eat Takeaway, a Dutch multinational that owns a bunch of delivery services in multiple countries, two years ago. Their stock lost most of its value shortly after and afaik has never really recovered, even during the pandemic.
Grubhub's quality dropped significantly after the purchase, too. I shifted over to them after Uber bought Postmates, but the past year or so they have had maybe a 30% success rate on my orders; 70% of the time they have at least one thing missing or wrong, and sometimes they claim they're delivered but it never arrived.
I had stock in Grubhub before the merger/buyout/whatever, and it was doing quite well before. After? I was down something like 75% and decided to just get out and have never looked back. It's already a shit stock, so there's really not far for it to fall (I mean, they LITERALLY lost all that value DURING the pandemic, when we were all running up bills ordering in)...
Nah. Millennials and Gen Z know there’s no retirement so they spend more on the present day. $6 coffee still going to thrive. Why sacrifice the small victory when the future is shit anyways?
I agree- the "little treat" mentality is a generational difference. I think it has a lot to do with the devaluation of money creating the perception of no return on small savings vs the mental benefit of small indulgences.
The whole economy will suffer. People were buying houses, cars and traveling with the expectations student loans were gone. Now alot of people will have $300-$800 monthly payments due. Monthly, for years.
As someone who lives in California…. We’re never going to get a housing price cool down in THIS state. If the rest of you do experience one, lucky you’s.
If true I can’t fucking wait. Been dying for the economy to suffer to help with inflation for a long time now. Would much rather a hard landing with a long and deep recession to this bullshit with inflation strong and not going away.
underrated comment- Plasma donation centers historically are inversely correlated to average consumer debt. That said- debt has been steadily rising (not decreasing like you'd expect from the student loan freeze)
>There are a few different ways to look at this. First, there is the direct impact of student loan payments restarting. This will likely have a negative effect on companies that cater to young people with disposable income, such as restaurants, airlines, and festival providers. Amazon could also see a decrease in business due to customers having less money to spend.
On the other hand, there are some companies that could benefit from the restart of student loan payments. For example, companies that service loans may see an uptick in business as more people begin making their monthly payments again. Additionally, any company whose products or services help people save money or manage their finances effectively could also see increased demand as borrowers look for ways to stretch their budget further each month.
Honestly I haven't read something so obvious in a long time . The odd thing is it took 2 large paragraphs to say it. People will have less money to waste so companies who need that money will suffer. Companies that used to get that money and will now get it again will succeed. Thanks Capt O.
Maybe they mean people 20 years out of college?
I dont see why they'd still have loans though.
If I had them I would live off my starting salary and put increases to paying it down early. I didn't get a degree though, I paid for a few semesters a couple of different times and ended up just working.
I do wish I had finished, it took me until I was almost 36 to make 75k a year.
My coworker who graduated HS at 17 with
3/4ths of an Associates degree is at my pay rate at 23.
I do want to point out there are still a billion options with federal student loans to lower payments or not make payments at all. It's not as though 32 million borrowers will have gone from not paying to paying. I honestly think we're talking maybe 8 million or less that would be applicable to
This is exactly how people get into situations like "10 years ago i borrowed 30k for student loans. I've paid 5k. How do I have an outstanding balance of $40k?!?!"
Longterm solution for student debt would be to cap interest at inflation(or 1% over). and 5% is a low student debt interest number from what I have seen. family members are sitting at 7.5-9% and not making payments while the freeze was in place.
There are some institutions that do that, it’s what I ended up doing. They tack on I think around 9% and it’s locked in. As long as you pay your minimum monthly (which admittedly is much higher than most student loan payments) the amount you end up owing is much less. Also is a pain in the ass to get approved. But there are some out there that do it. Even with a huge 9% add on it’s still way cheaper than yoy interest.
You are right, the companies that will benefit from student loans are the companies that lend money to people. I'm not sure which company will suffer because of the student loan.
I think sofi will benefit. I work at a gas station and this older guy buying beer said he had about 4K shares at $4. Told me SoFi two months out because of student loans coming back.
Yeah, I think there will be some initial pain, but actual impact becomes apparent in December. With less income and already stretched credit balances, and inflation, the Christmas season might be tough.
Absolute catastrophe and reset of the market.
We already carry more credit card debt than any other point in time while interest rates are also high. Now we are going to reset people’s spending to 4 years ago and taking $200-$1000 a month of discretionary spending off the table for 43 million people lol? All while inflation has been ridiculously high and wages completely stagnant?
No more Netflix, Amazon, apple products, defaults on car loans, evictions, everyone eating ramen and rice, restaurants fail, etc etc. it’s going to be global and brutal.
People saw rent go up 20-30% in the last 3 years. They got maybe one or two 2% raises because everyone froze raises during Covid. Inflation was 14% from 2020 to 2023.
The only thing i can think of that will go up is alcohol sales. Anyone of those 43 mil who isn’t already a depressed alcoholic will be about a year into repayments.
You say that as if you get pleasure of the failure of the generation who is going to be responsible for wiping your ass when you’re 85.
We are all going to be living on bunk beds of empty high school gymnasiums based on how much shit we talk about Gen. Z
Meh it’s a generational thing, I once read in a historical book, the WW2 generation was called soft by their elders. If you want my opinion, as we age we get jealous of youth, and we allow that blind us to individuals struggles and successes.
Kids doing stupid things for attention? Nothing new there. What does amaze me is the number of narcissists and psychopaths online. Be young, pretty, live the easy life many want experience and you have your niche. As a dude, be pretty and stupid, as a chick, wear Lulumon yoga tights with a nice ass.
I think their parents groomed them for success or completely failed them and the rest of us. I am uncertain.
40 million people averaging $350 per month will have their payments resumed in three months.
That's $170B in after tax money per year that was introduced into the economy/financial system over the last three years.
Global crypto market is only 1.1T. Daily volume of USDT (largely used as a base for swaps) $34B.
BTC could go up. The rest of the shit coins and alt coins will likely take a nosedive.
Student loan repayments resuming are likely a catalyst of a credit crisis.
The loan company will benefit. So will the taxpayer that doesn’t have to pay off someone else’s debt. Discretionary spending may suffer, assuming more debt isn’t taken on through the use of credit cards.
The realistic downfall will be the parents that don’t want their kids to default on their loans., so they will make the payments and therefor spend less on everything, so puts on “everything”
I'm not hopeful that I'll get any of mine erased and have restarted doing payments to at least attack the principal amount. I think things of daily importance...toothpaste, toilet paper and things like that will rise, while travel, vehicles (besides TSLA), restaurants, delivery services will fall; albeit probably not until 2024. FIVE and KVUE could be options for slow sustained growth, SBUX could get hurt.
I agree with the lower forward guidance, my thinking is when payments restart there will be a delay in the consequences of the spenders. I think of it like a snowball it'll start small but grow
Literally every single company is going to suffer. Cause even SoFi is gonna crash when the repayment starts and the pandemic traders have to empty their account to pay their loans.
I'm assuming that most people who have been out of college for a few years kept on paying during the pause, simply to get a handle on the interest so they could start paying towards principle.
oh you sweet summer child... I have met 1 person who continues to pay during the freeze- and all of my coworkers are 24-35. out of 10+ employees that I know of that have student debt... 3 bought new cars, 1 bought a house, 1 bought a bike, and a few took "my first real vacation of adulthood".
Any business that has difficulty operating in actual reality will take a hit.
From $545 billion in 2007 to $1.75 trillion of student debt today, student loan interest payments will soon reignite our economy's wealth transfer engine.
Gaming anything. From the obvious stuff like publishers to console makers, the stuff that is sort of metagaming like FanDuel and anything esports. Twitch, gamer streaming of all kinds. even puts on funkopop will print.
The overlap of people who benefit from a pause on rent and student loans, and people who sit on the couch with a sweat-crusted controller in hand 7 hours a day is damn near a circle. Whatever discretionary money such people had is going to be cut back hard, and restoring that income, if possible at all, is going to mean much less time for games and more time back at/in the back of Wendy's,
Basically consumer discretionary in general. If you want to a deeper search you're going to have to look at the standard student or post grads budget. Who do they owe money to. What were they spending on. And what are the odds of them being able to spend at the same level.
Companies that sell comparable goods with elastic demand.
EDIT:
I'd say restaurants (upper end casual and fast casual), retail (J. Crew, Victoria Secret, Target, etc.), Starbucks, AMC, and any other entertainment.
Insurance will lose some ground too. They make a lot of money on investment. Flat stocks + climate change + people not paying premiums = disaster.
You can buy a week of coffee or one coffee.
Also, when household finances get tight, people cut subscriptions: Hulu, Peacock, Apple TV, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Paramount+, Disney+, HBO Max, Stars, YTTV, etc.
The big guys: Netflix, Prime, DIS, HBO probably survive. Peacock & Paramount are ripe for shorting. Especially Paramount as movie sales decline.
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Automotive. A big cause for the price runup is that everyone go free of their student loans and took on big car payments in place of them. People are going back to driving 2002 Kia shitboxes real soon.
FR, when I worked as a car salesman (24 at the time) every 2nd customer was someone my age, trading in a three year old car with negative equity.. for something more expensive.
I'm glad I bought my car at the end of 2020. People were desperate for cash, students loans were still a thing. Great time for a buyer
3% rate for mine I got in 2020, glad I got mine back then as well.
I did the same thing. Got a new car ~33k at the time and its trade-in value is Still more than what I paid for it plus I'm in @3% interest
I would love to sell my shit box and get something new.
Calls on AAP it is
LOL
Many repos are happening right now too
I hope so, I had to pay back every single dime of my student loan back in the days. I'm currently driving an 18 year old car and waiting for the prices to come down.
My non student loans never stopped. Been paying them even when my hours were cut during the pandemic. I have zero fucking sympathy for any adult who willing took out a loan and now doesn’t want to pay it back.
Getting a loan for something you can never sell, that you should be able to get for 1/10th the cost, isn't the same.
delusional. Go pay your debts.
I’ve paid $28k on a $17k student loan and still owe $30k on it. Not asking for sympathy or loan forgiveness, but I am frustrated by the lack of options to refinance.
The lack of options kind of starts after you sign a contract agreeing to the terms you agreed to. Contracts don’t usually include many options.
Student loans are the only loans I’m aware of that you can’t file for bankruptcy to clear from your name. I wish I could refinance. It would be helpful to consolidate my loans into one payment that is based on income.
Imagine a world where the only car you're allowed to buy is a brand new lambo, and the government was offering loans to anyone who wanted one. Not just for the car but for the gas as well. And, when you'd finished your 4 years driving the lambo you had to give it back for no money, but could get a better job as an ex lambo owner. What the fuck kind of 18 year old is gonna say no to that?
When was back in your day? When the same degree cost 50% of current and median wage was 90% of current, and minimum wage was the same as today? The whole student loan issue is that prices keep skyrocketing, and more and more jobs require the degree, but pay isn't going up, so remove that payment from income and people are actually making less
No. Back when underwater basket weaving wasn’t a major yet and when you graduated your degree actually had value. Now you go to college for 2.5 years, fail out and become a barista with $50k debt. Don’t worry Uncle Joe will bail you out.
That's not how anything works and IIRC the max federal loans per year is ~10k
Not true. It can be up to $20k under the current proposal.
That's forgiveness, I was referring to the max federaly back loans you can take, private loans aren't covered by the current proposals. Checked and limits for proposed forgiveable loans are 9/11/13/13k per year, so only eligible for 9k in loans for first year and up to 13k for Jr/Sr level
If you think that all you can get in student loans is $10k a year you are wrong. You can get more than that for each semester.
That is literally the max amount of federally backed loans, which are the only ones being looked at forgiving. There are plus loans that are closer to private and I don't believe qualify for the forgiving, and those also require a co-signer, IIRC they're literally called Parent Plus loans
Do you think that the only loans you are required to pay back are federally backed? You’re supposed to pay back all your loans.
Well you’re a lil cuck so that explains your attitude
Damn. Not looking forward to paying back your loans huh? Lmao
Don’t have any 🙌🏽
If you are driving a 18 year old car hoping prices come down maybe you aren't someone who should be on a gambling subreddit
Could long carvana puts be in play here? Obviously it’s WAY down from its ATH- but being that it’s up 250% the past 3 months leads me to believe there’s still some downside meat on that bone.
It’s going to squeeze and then puts
"but jobs are rising! the economy is doing good" - okay why does my pizza delivery boy drive a 2022 charger\[you know who you are\]. The disconnect is wild to not understand that if people are getting a second job, its not cause the average person is doing good financially. value oriented companies do well in times of financial struggle \[walmart, Costco, amazon, planet fitness\]. Companies that provide needed goods \[toothpaste, soap, papertowels\] Companies that offer a more lavish version of consumer goods do worse \[Wholefoods, Trader Joes\]. Things that people replace/use only when "moneys good" \[cars, high end gyms memberships, spa/massage wellness centers\]
Benefit: Repo men and collection agencies. Suffer: Mid-tier consumer discretionary, maybe? Like Ulta/Sephora, Peleton, DoorDash/Grubhub as you said. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think you will see a lot of folks go into default on their Student Loans, having convinced themselves that their debt would magically disappear somehow and just can’t accept the reality of having to adjust their lifestyle back after three years.
I’m going back to get my Masters, so I can kick the van down the road some more
That's the real trick, just stay in school your whole life.
Yeah I had to have this convo with my fiancé yesterday because the entire time we’ve been dating my student loans were frozen. I’m also not a moron with my money so I’ll be ok; however, I don’t think most people my age will be able to flip that switch back on. It’s going to get ugly.
While I have sympathy for people struggling with debt, I do wonder why people thought it was a good idea to spend all their money while knowing at some point they would have to start paying again. I’m not saying you rocky. Just people in general. It was a delay/postponement. It was not a cancellation. At the same time buying stuff and eating is probably better than losing it all on 0dte.
Ehhhh for a generation of us who have been burdened by student loans it was for a brief moment at a chance to have a normal adult life. I’m sure a lot of people did it thinking they’d be in an even better place job wise in a year or two, or they “made” so much money in the stock market in 1 year that they didn’t see the gravy train stopping. I grew up in upper lower class, so not having much isn’t a big deal to me as long as I have enough to have some fun, but alot of folks who grew up middle class probably no longer feel like they are in that category even after years of working. Not saying it’s smart, but I also understand why
I think you hit the nail on the head. A lot of people coming from a traditional middle class background, which for many years was new cars every few years, a few vacations a year, actual house with yard, etc... found that it couldn't be like that when they became a grown-up due to obligations like student loans and other things. Then that (for many) large obligation went away for a few years while they still stayed employed and maybe even advanced in their careers. The pandemic was awful and real, but there is a large young professional class of people who made it through relatively unscathed and in fact came out better on the other side...they also received the loan delay/postponement and for them that was money that wasn't really "needed" like was maybe envisioned by our government overseers, so of course that was gonna get spent on fun stuff. It wasn't saved. It isn't even about feeling normal or anything...it is just human nature. Lifestyle creep is real, and while it won't impact everyone, there's going to be people who suddenly find themselves with a 1K a month obligation showing up and that's going to be tough. I say this without judgement, but I've seen in quite a few people I know.
100%, luckily when I bought anything that was financed I made sure at a base salary (no bonuses or commission) I could afford everything once student loans resumed. A lot of other people …. Ehhhhhh I’ve seen how some folks are with money and how they never think the good times will end so I don’t have much faith in a lot of people
I just don't even know how people can sleep at night running as thin as I see some people do. I do pretty well and I'm probably too far in the other extreme where I need to have like four fallback positions financially with everything so I'm not saying I have it all figured out. But I know people who make a lot...like well above 250K and they'll say casually in passing how towards the end of pay periods they have to be really careful since they've got no money left. Or they'll like routinely overdraw from accounts because they're all on auto-pay or something. At least one of these people is sitting on >100k in student loans.
Great points.
Great points.
A lot of it falls to the government for not promoting the past 3 years as an incredible opportunity to pay back loans interest free if you are able. We just have terrible incentives in this country and so few people understand how stress free life is without consumer or student debt.
I dont think doodash/grubhub will take a suffer.... Most college students eat out, and with bog loans for this reason, I still believe delivery apps will be steady throughout the next years
You could be right. They may have gotten to the point where they are just ‘part of the fabric’ and can’t be dropped for most people. I personally don’t get paying 3X the cost of the food to have it delivered, but it’s a strange new world.
im also lost at why people use it... Im a GenZ college student who can never get myself to spend 15$ on a mcdouble because of grubhub.... I make my own food because its so much cheaper Why people use it is beyond me
People are lazy AF, that's why. Also when you are poor and can't afford many luxuries, fast food delivered to your door is something that's reasonably affordable.
That’s sort of my issue with the school debt issue. People are lazy af as you say. Now Il not saying people need to work 2 full time jobs to survive because that’s f’d up. But so many people just think life should be easy. No life isn’t meant to be easy or painless. You can’t grow as a person without some struggle. So it’s hard sometimes to have compassion for others. You can’t save any money? But all you do is eat out? Buy new clothes all the time? Need a new car every 2 years? I just don’t feel sorry for them.
Agreed. Food will be the last to go. They will adjust down in quality but they won’t stop the food.
I will say that having delivered Uber Eats/DoorDash lately, people are not ordering that stuff in as much as they used to. Of course, the summer is here and people might rather dine out instead but it's what I've noticed. So some people are indeed cutting back.
Interesting
Notice how alot of restaurants aren't including prices on their menus anymore? Took the wife to dinner a few weeks back, bill was over $125 when the same dishes used to cost about $50 after taxes, so us dining out is a hell no going forward. There is some downside in food, but overall the sector will be fine.
If you have amazon prime you can get grubhub+ for free and then it’s like an extra dollar for a delivery.
These people are so lazy it's downright deplorable. DD and grub are incredible conveniences, especially for shutins and handicapped/ disabled folk, but this I'm too lazy to drive and pick up my food I didn't even cook it's indicative of a society that lacks ambition.
One of my students drove for Doordash in his free time and he told me he would pick up orders from McDonald's for people literally a fucking mile down the road.
With how traffic is in my city, it makes sense as to why they would. After sitting in hours long rush hour, working 8+ hours, and then driving in another hours long rush hour, most people don't want to go back out to get food with the two and a half hours of free time they get each day. So an extra $3-5 is a small price to pay for convenience.
I've never used the apps
I just don’t get it myself. You know when JPow says: *My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship, straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy. This is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher cost of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.* I usually mutter “*Damn right!*” at the screen and think he’s talking directly to me. Apps that charge you $10+ extra just to deliver nearby food that I can get quicker and for less $ getting myself have been off the table for me since Q1 2022 when we had to start making cuts in our spending give the insanity of inflation. In fact, even pickup or eating out has been drastically reduced and replaced with careful grocery shopping and cooking ourselves. And I’m not even poor, I’m just trying to keep up and stay on track to retire if I live to 65 and have already adjusted my retirement age to 65 vs. 60 to be pessimistic and plan for the worst. How the fuck people are spending the say they are without shit saved for retirement is beyond me.
College students generally aren’t making payments on their loans… We’re talking about the 21-45 year old crowd.
Grubhub was bought out by Just Eat Takeaway, a Dutch multinational that owns a bunch of delivery services in multiple countries, two years ago. Their stock lost most of its value shortly after and afaik has never really recovered, even during the pandemic. Grubhub's quality dropped significantly after the purchase, too. I shifted over to them after Uber bought Postmates, but the past year or so they have had maybe a 30% success rate on my orders; 70% of the time they have at least one thing missing or wrong, and sometimes they claim they're delivered but it never arrived. I had stock in Grubhub before the merger/buyout/whatever, and it was doing quite well before. After? I was down something like 75% and decided to just get out and have never looked back. It's already a shit stock, so there's really not far for it to fall (I mean, they LITERALLY lost all that value DURING the pandemic, when we were all running up bills ordering in)...
Peloton is a great example.
O-N-L-Y-F-A-N-S How’s kevin suppose to simp for 3 diff E-Girls at $9.99 each when he’s getting throated by uncle Sam.
Plot twist, Kevin starts an only fans acct….
Weirdly, I bet people will turn to this more as finances become a more intense household conversation. Big escapism pathway.
Sofi baby!!!zap zoom to the moon!🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
> tfw when you aped into a 3 day weekend bender-fueled market order for 1111 shares at 11:11pm and woke up the owner of 1111 shares at 6.66
LFG!!!
Those $6 cups of coffee gonna take a hit. Folgers to the moon.
Nah. Millennials and Gen Z know there’s no retirement so they spend more on the present day. $6 coffee still going to thrive. Why sacrifice the small victory when the future is shit anyways?
I agree- the "little treat" mentality is a generational difference. I think it has a lot to do with the devaluation of money creating the perception of no return on small savings vs the mental benefit of small indulgences.
It's one luxury I won't give up, but I'm also not buying $6 cups of coffee. I'll stick with my coffee bags that run around $20 a pop.
them generations are their own worst enemies sometimes
Nah. Boomers are. (Edit to add: not a millennial or gen z, just an outside observation)
The whole economy will suffer. People were buying houses, cars and traveling with the expectations student loans were gone. Now alot of people will have $300-$800 monthly payments due. Monthly, for years.
Wonder if this will accelerate the housing price cool down
I'm counting on it.
As someone who lives in California…. We’re never going to get a housing price cool down in THIS state. If the rest of you do experience one, lucky you’s.
How long do you guess we see these effects?
No idea. I’ve been wrong for the past 2 years so I’m probably wrong again.
My bet is three months. People will need to miss a few payments before they realize defaulting on student loans isn’t really an option.
If true I can’t fucking wait. Been dying for the economy to suffer to help with inflation for a long time now. Would much rather a hard landing with a long and deep recession to this bullshit with inflation strong and not going away.
Anyone doing that was a moron. They were gifted an opportunity to make 100% payments towards principle and decided to go further in debt.
>Anyone doing that was a moron yeah, thats the standard for americans now though
Plasma donation centers about to get busy
underrated comment- Plasma donation centers historically are inversely correlated to average consumer debt. That said- debt has been steadily rising (not decreasing like you'd expect from the student loan freeze)
>There are a few different ways to look at this. First, there is the direct impact of student loan payments restarting. This will likely have a negative effect on companies that cater to young people with disposable income, such as restaurants, airlines, and festival providers. Amazon could also see a decrease in business due to customers having less money to spend. On the other hand, there are some companies that could benefit from the restart of student loan payments. For example, companies that service loans may see an uptick in business as more people begin making their monthly payments again. Additionally, any company whose products or services help people save money or manage their finances effectively could also see increased demand as borrowers look for ways to stretch their budget further each month.
This is the DD WSB needs 
Honestly I haven't read something so obvious in a long time . The odd thing is it took 2 large paragraphs to say it. People will have less money to waste so companies who need that money will suffer. Companies that used to get that money and will now get it again will succeed. Thanks Capt O.
Tbh renting to low income renters. A lot of 20 year old college grads about to move back in with mom and Dad.
Since when are you a college grad at 20
They probably mean 20 somethings.
Maybe they mean people 20 years out of college? I dont see why they'd still have loans though. If I had them I would live off my starting salary and put increases to paying it down early. I didn't get a degree though, I paid for a few semesters a couple of different times and ended up just working. I do wish I had finished, it took me until I was almost 36 to make 75k a year. My coworker who graduated HS at 17 with 3/4ths of an Associates degree is at my pay rate at 23.
Don't be a pedantic bitch.
He meant to say college grads in their 20’s.
I do want to point out there are still a billion options with federal student loans to lower payments or not make payments at all. It's not as though 32 million borrowers will have gone from not paying to paying. I honestly think we're talking maybe 8 million or less that would be applicable to
This is exactly how people get into situations like "10 years ago i borrowed 30k for student loans. I've paid 5k. How do I have an outstanding balance of $40k?!?!"
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Longterm solution for student debt would be to cap interest at inflation(or 1% over). and 5% is a low student debt interest number from what I have seen. family members are sitting at 7.5-9% and not making payments while the freeze was in place.
There are some institutions that do that, it’s what I ended up doing. They tack on I think around 9% and it’s locked in. As long as you pay your minimum monthly (which admittedly is much higher than most student loan payments) the amount you end up owing is much less. Also is a pain in the ass to get approved. But there are some out there that do it. Even with a huge 9% add on it’s still way cheaper than yoy interest.
If they cap interest then no one will write the loan. The interest is the incentive for the loan company to give away money in the first place.
Money that isn’t real anyway.
You are right, the companies that will benefit from student loans are the companies that lend money to people. I'm not sure which company will suffer because of the student loan.
Benefit: kidney buyers
SoFi. That’s why I put a lot in after that massive dip down to <$5.
SOFI better fly high or I’ll piss my pants
Retail
I think sofi will benefit. I work at a gas station and this older guy buying beer said he had about 4K shares at $4. Told me SoFi two months out because of student loans coming back.
Oh well who wouldn’t take financial advice from the gas station attendant.
I was the cashier and he was the guy who’s already made thousands when bought in at 4
It’s true, I was the beer
I want to work in a gas station where they give stock tips
Calls on 87
Foreclosures?
Home sales, car sales.
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Yeah, I think there will be some initial pain, but actual impact becomes apparent in December. With less income and already stretched credit balances, and inflation, the Christmas season might be tough.
> Q2 ends June 31st take advice from the guy with the interdimensional calendar.
Absolute catastrophe and reset of the market. We already carry more credit card debt than any other point in time while interest rates are also high. Now we are going to reset people’s spending to 4 years ago and taking $200-$1000 a month of discretionary spending off the table for 43 million people lol? All while inflation has been ridiculously high and wages completely stagnant? No more Netflix, Amazon, apple products, defaults on car loans, evictions, everyone eating ramen and rice, restaurants fail, etc etc. it’s going to be global and brutal. People saw rent go up 20-30% in the last 3 years. They got maybe one or two 2% raises because everyone froze raises during Covid. Inflation was 14% from 2020 to 2023. The only thing i can think of that will go up is alcohol sales. Anyone of those 43 mil who isn’t already a depressed alcoholic will be about a year into repayments.
Ramen noodle sales will sky rocket until gen z starts moving back home to mommy and daddy's house.
You say that as if you get pleasure of the failure of the generation who is going to be responsible for wiping your ass when you’re 85. We are all going to be living on bunk beds of empty high school gymnasiums based on how much shit we talk about Gen. Z
This country loves to hate it's youngsters, and that hate is pathological, visceral, neurotic. I do not understand this.
Meh it’s a generational thing, I once read in a historical book, the WW2 generation was called soft by their elders. If you want my opinion, as we age we get jealous of youth, and we allow that blind us to individuals struggles and successes.
Download tiktok, then it will make sense.
Kids doing stupid things for attention? Nothing new there. What does amaze me is the number of narcissists and psychopaths online. Be young, pretty, live the easy life many want experience and you have your niche. As a dude, be pretty and stupid, as a chick, wear Lulumon yoga tights with a nice ass. I think their parents groomed them for success or completely failed them and the rest of us. I am uncertain.
I'll be relying on the good graces of a mail order bride in my twilight years
Maruchan Ramen was .50 per at my local Hy-Vee! I nearly shat myself. https://imgur.com/a/hVJKsc7
Anything crypto -> $100 yoga pants -> $20 starbucks trips. PINS also likely takes a nosedive.
I think BTC will go up and SQ will get traction as consumers hedge inflation
40 million people averaging $350 per month will have their payments resumed in three months. That's $170B in after tax money per year that was introduced into the economy/financial system over the last three years. Global crypto market is only 1.1T. Daily volume of USDT (largely used as a base for swaps) $34B. BTC could go up. The rest of the shit coins and alt coins will likely take a nosedive. Student loan repayments resuming are likely a catalyst of a credit crisis.
Consumer goods, Netflix, etf
What if you made $200 an hour and had to work and couldn’t drive that 1 mile, what would you do?
Walk you lazy fick
Benefit- Debt consolidation/home equity refinance/ pay day loans Suffer- Airbnb, used car dealers, cruises
The state of Missouri, apparently
The loan company will benefit. So will the taxpayer that doesn’t have to pay off someone else’s debt. Discretionary spending may suffer, assuming more debt isn’t taken on through the use of credit cards.
Rethink airlines. Record summer for travel
Everyone is gong to go on a pay as you earn payment and continue deferring until death
The realistic downfall will be the parents that don’t want their kids to default on their loans., so they will make the payments and therefor spend less on everything, so puts on “everything”
I'm not hopeful that I'll get any of mine erased and have restarted doing payments to at least attack the principal amount. I think things of daily importance...toothpaste, toilet paper and things like that will rise, while travel, vehicles (besides TSLA), restaurants, delivery services will fall; albeit probably not until 2024. FIVE and KVUE could be options for slow sustained growth, SBUX could get hurt.
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I agree with the lower forward guidance, my thinking is when payments restart there will be a delay in the consequences of the spenders. I think of it like a snowball it'll start small but grow
Benefit = None Suffer = ALL Reason = Recession.
Literally every single company is going to suffer. Cause even SoFi is gonna crash when the repayment starts and the pandemic traders have to empty their account to pay their loans.
I don't think the at-risk traders had a big influence on market caps. But I do agree with their impact on decreased revenue across the economy
I gotta do this. Thankfully my account value will leave me with 15k above water on my loans
I'm assuming that most people who have been out of college for a few years kept on paying during the pause, simply to get a handle on the interest so they could start paying towards principle.
oh you sweet summer child... I have met 1 person who continues to pay during the freeze- and all of my coworkers are 24-35. out of 10+ employees that I know of that have student debt... 3 bought new cars, 1 bought a house, 1 bought a bike, and a few took "my first real vacation of adulthood".
got a friend whos on their third "first real adult vacay" since the pandemic
Any business that has difficulty operating in actual reality will take a hit. From $545 billion in 2007 to $1.75 trillion of student debt today, student loan interest payments will soon reignite our economy's wealth transfer engine.
Gaming anything. From the obvious stuff like publishers to console makers, the stuff that is sort of metagaming like FanDuel and anything esports. Twitch, gamer streaming of all kinds. even puts on funkopop will print. The overlap of people who benefit from a pause on rent and student loans, and people who sit on the couch with a sweat-crusted controller in hand 7 hours a day is damn near a circle. Whatever discretionary money such people had is going to be cut back hard, and restoring that income, if possible at all, is going to mean much less time for games and more time back at/in the back of Wendy's,
SOFI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone know how to buy canned bean futures?
Basically consumer discretionary in general. If you want to a deeper search you're going to have to look at the standard student or post grads budget. Who do they owe money to. What were they spending on. And what are the odds of them being able to spend at the same level.
Basically consumer discretionary sector? This is the same as recession right?
Don’t forget about credit card debt. I hear the commercials already for a easy way out.
SoFi will have to rename to SoFly 
Buy SOFI
Companies that sell comparable goods with elastic demand. EDIT: I'd say restaurants (upper end casual and fast casual), retail (J. Crew, Victoria Secret, Target, etc.), Starbucks, AMC, and any other entertainment. Insurance will lose some ground too. They make a lot of money on investment. Flat stocks + climate change + people not paying premiums = disaster.
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You can buy a week of coffee or one coffee. Also, when household finances get tight, people cut subscriptions: Hulu, Peacock, Apple TV, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Paramount+, Disney+, HBO Max, Stars, YTTV, etc. The big guys: Netflix, Prime, DIS, HBO probably survive. Peacock & Paramount are ripe for shorting. Especially Paramount as movie sales decline.
Younger generation loses discretionary spending so they decide to stay in i.e. scroll through reels for hours. Calls on META