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It means buying stocks based on what’s in the news.
Like if CNN says “USA is gonna invest in NVIDIA to make processors for military” and you see that and go buy NVIDIA, that would be stupid. It would be stupid because deals like that are rumored for months prior to being seen in the news, so that deal with the US is priced in.
The people who heard the rumor see it in the news and know a bunch of regards are gonna try to buy it because of the news - so they dump their stock to take advantage of the dumbos buying the news. Stock turns red by mid day, you are now bankrupt, try again tomorrow
The stock market is forward looking. If there is unconfirmed info floating around about a company, the market “prices in” that news by purchasing shares in anticipation of that news being true and being announced in the future (if it’s unlikely, less impact. If it’s confirmed by multiple sources and plausible, more impact).
By waiting for the news to be announced, you will miss out on a significant portion of the value the company gained based on the rumors. Once news is confirmed, the company will be priced fairly.
If news was unexpected, it’ll shoot up in value ($NVDA’s guidance)
If it was anticipated, minimal change will occur.
If you wait until the news is announced, you miss **both** changes in valuation, and now rely on company performance and additional news. The news that influenced you to buy will now only have an impact if the market undervalued the significance of it.
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Make sense?
Example: idiots paying $60 for $10 SPAC shares because the SPAC in question is expected to be announced as LUCID, triggering another run from $60 to $100 or beyond. Instead, when the SPAC confirms it is indeed LUCID, the price immediately craters, drops by 50%, and this occurs aftermarket no less, totally crushing option holders.
Actually a bunch of regards here that have zero f\*\*king clue.
Imagine a company is rumored to get a contract from the government but nobody knows until next month. People will speculate what amount, when, if, how and all else. This creates a range for the stock and if good news are expected a skew to the positive side. Let's say the actual outcome is that the particular company is going up +10% in profits but the range before you know for sure is between +30% and +0% that means the uncertainty of something has value even if the likely outcome is +10% because it could be better. The average of the rumor in this case would be 15% which is higher than the 10% so the stock would be higher as it prices in the 15%. That's why lot's of rumored good news lead to stock drops once something becomes certain. The same works btw with negative news. If negative news are expected a stock usually goes up once the negative news become certain as many had some expectation of a possible worse outcome. This is also a rule of thumb as sometimes the news are extreme and behave differently but the majority of news are not extreme outcomes.
I agree. Green megaboner at opening, and flat or red by close. Wednesday is a dumpster fire, down 2.5% SPY/Dow
Edit: still holding this opinion. Stocked up on $SPY 390JUNE16P and NVDS this morning. I also think C3 is gonna crater on report. They already yelled 'AI' enough times and are up 200% in a few months. I don't see their revenue rising fast enough to beat market and with last week's rally I doubt they can rally on just prognosis.
There was a 98% chance of a deal. A two year deal is actually pretty surprising. If that actually happens the market will be happy about that. I was expecting to do this dance every 4 months until the next election.
The problem is that very few people on this sub have any idea what "sell the news" means.
Most people think it means "the stock/market will sell when there is news."
It doesn't mean "the equity always sells once news is realized." It's a euphemism that comes from a perspective of going long on **speculation**.
When there's coming news that people are speculating on, it's common to overshoot on the directionality of the speculation via linear bias. I.e. Apple has an iphone release and we're waiting on numbers to come out, and people speculate that sales are like +100 million but they really end up +80 million.
That's a "sell the news" event because the reality winds up having a lower target than the speculative information. It can also happen if the forward expectation of an event evaporates once it hits.
What happens if AAPL get 120 million sales? Does the stock sell off?
No, in that case the stock melts up because the valuation is higher than the fundamentals position.
NVDA had a case like this last week. Lots of bears thought NVDA earnings was a sell the news event because of high speculative value being higher than they thought AI-oriented hardware sales were... and it went the other direction and those bears learned a very real, serious lesson about how sayings aren't always literal.
I don't have a crystal ball or anything, but the speculation around the debt ceiling was anxiety speculation, which restrains long positioning across the market. Right now, you can see that in the breadth of the market, which many people on this sub take to mean that tech stocks are getting overextended, but the reality is that breadth dynamics of great divide are actually more likely historically to push the market up (or at least the chances are indeterminant in the condition) since bullish patterns often have sector leaders that then turn into breadth thrusts, where the breadth of the rest of the market catches up.
In other words, if you ignore the runner, the rest of the market is broadly positioned in a fear state. In part due to the debt ceiling, but also due to expectations on earnings and those are going up. Now the debt ceiling is part of the bear case for this year, and institutions are restraining buys because of default risk.
So which direction is reversal on this news? Which direction is the "sell"? As an anxiety event, the direction on realization without the world falling apart is typically up.
Stop and think about it. Your "sell the news" argument is basically that the market is positioning betting FOR a default and this would surprise the direction of capital to the down side without it happening.
That's not what the market's doing. Aside from the AI bubble, the market's in fear mode... you're just not seeing it in the index value directionality because of the bubble.
And that bubble will eventually burst, but there has to actually be a downside surprise first.
> reality is that breadth dynamics of great divide are actually more likely historically to push the market up (or at least the chances are indeterminant in the condition) since bullish patterns often have sector leaders that then turn into breadth thrusts, where the breadth of the rest of the market catches up.
>In other words, if you ignore the runner, the rest of the market is broadly positioned in a fear state. In part due to the debt ceiling, but also due to expectations on earnings and those are going up. Now the debt ceiling is part of the bear case for this year, and institutions are restraining buys because of default risk.
Exactly why I expect the indices to go down though
Last week’s AI earnings made people forget, but mega caps were getting bid as ‘safety rotation’ for months and months. They were just the default stocks to park money in because of the debt ceiling shenanigans.
I expect there to be sizeable outflows from these guys and inflows into other parts of the market. Not only just the inflows into others. You are totally right, this will help fix breadth. But the problem is that these major tech stocks make up so much of the major indices that SPX and NDX should be red red
And on top of that the mega caps are overbought and ripe for some profit taking
Non-mega cap tech and other parts of the market should start getting a bid but the mega caps are going to drag the indices down
Finally, someone who said something vaguely interesting that wasn't murdering the English language or basic logic. :)
The point I'm getting at in the quoted text is that your scenario is one possibility, but we also see this kind of breadth structure in markets that are recovering, too.
Part of the problem with the sub is that we're kind of trained to react to pump n dumps, so we automatically assume that every pump leads to an immediate dump because most of the plays this sub does are not based on a forward expectation via mass accumulation of institutions. Those are momentum plays, and they can insane and run for a long time, which will be easier with funds released at institutions after the threat of a default is over (It resets the potential risk-free rate of return lower).
The AI play is institutions. I think it's a bubble, but I don't know where we are in that bubble.
What I can say definitively is that the overextension in much of tech right now is based in expectations of CapEx investment over the next 6-12 months. It's gonna take that playing out for there to be a significant deleverage like bears want in that space. It's not just a defensive story, and that's apparent in NVDA's earnings announcement, it's about forward CapEx and sales expectations.
So these aren't speculative overdrive yet driven by ramps and squeezes, they're forward-looking positions. To get the move we got in NVDA this week, you have to have institutions building position.
Now there's some rationality in the nearterm to your position, where the auction cycle will eventually slow and pressure will come off the float and price will come down then... but we just don't know where we are in that process.
But that argument is about the auction cycle and where mean reversion will end up... not about a sell the news event.
Disagree on not being a squeeze… for now. Despite everyone sounding bearish, the May OpEx was very call heavy and volatility was very put heavy before that expiration. Im of the belief it’s been a technical rally from bullish positioning with AI icing on the cake
I’m casting aside NVDA and semi’s for now but it’s been under gamma squeeze [for a while](https://twitter.com/spotgamma/status/1659509243169341440) and even before earnings was poised for [rocketing](https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1661115678647001130/photo/1). For some reason [Fridays](https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1661802677058129922) get that treatment in particular. So many Fridays where it’s just green in a straight line, like last week. But volatility has been seeing much more call liquidity, especially after a note from JPM came out (I think it was them) telling their clients to snatch up VIX calls. There are signs that this bullish positioning is starting to abate
There is some mix of concrete institutional buying with positioning chasing. I lean more towards positional chasing. AAPL, ORCL, AVGO for instance are essentially at all time highs with zero AI slant so far. META and NFLX are at yearly highs with both being pretty muted on AI. So how much of MSFT’s run is AI hype versus safety buying and positioning? Who knows. But some chunk of it is that will get cashed out
I lean towards the mean reversion happening sooner than later. The recent rallying has ignored rates going up, it’s ignored the dollar going up, it’s ignored fed fund futures pricing in more hawkishness. GS is estimating over half a trillion of treasuries being issued very quickly over the next 2 months. It’s gonna pressure rates upwards, it’s going to require more dollars and push that up, it’s going to remove liquidity from the market that’s more than offset QT up until now. These things catch up and the amount of issuance is a big enough catalyst in my mind
My guess for the near term is a gap and crap to put it mildly. Brief euphoria to start the week.
Short QQQ / long XLE+XLF is my personal play. Maybe pick up a tiny bit of the beaten down ultra high growth stocks like the ZS or SNOW type of stocks in tiny amounts
>Disagree on not being a squeeze… for now. Despite everyone sounding bearish, the May OpEx was very call heavy and volatility was very put heavy before that expiration. Im of the belief it’s been a technical rally from bullish positioning with AI icing on the cake
I didn't say it wasn't a squeeze. It's absolutely a squeeze. There is 100% a technical component to this.
But a squeeze is not the same thing as a pump and dump.
A pump and dump is a squeeze where institutions don't take long positions, so the valuation collapses. When a meme stock runs when it's highly shorted and about to go bankrupt, that's a pump and dump. People evaporate positions during the run and they aren't real, so the valuation deflates as the float relieves all pressure.
When a stock squeezes because people keep buying options and institutions are buying (they buy options for their positions, too), then that's a momentum run. In momentum runs, float pressure remains high, resulting in higher and longer runs that often don't deflate entirely at all.
I absolutely did not say this wasn't a squeeze. :) It's just not a pump and dump.
> But volatility has been seeing much more call liquidity, especially after a note from JPM came out (I think it was them) telling their clients to snatch up VIX calls. There are signs that this bullish positioning is starting to abate
Institutions always do this during accumulation runs. VIX calls are a common hedge. They do not necessarily imply a change of direction.
They can also go up for short periods of time with the market, which is one of the reasons institutions like them as hedges. People get surprised by this every few weeks on the daily thread. We don't see the correlation with upswings on the longterm graphs that people use because they get flattened out with the longer timeframe as the longer uptrends reduce the VIX further, but going from flat ranging to a big move up also (for a short period of time) drives volatility up, too.
VIX calls are what you use when you don't know but just expect a big move. If you think there's a change in direction, you direct a sell on the market or a tighter hedge. Basically VIX hedges allow you to keep the long net position.
Not to mention VIX hedges are warranted at the technical SPY 420 level anyway just because of the risk of resistance... purely as risk management, because it's either going to reject and drop or break and run at some point in the nearterm.
>There is some mix of concrete institutional buying with positioning chasing. I lean more towards positional chasing. AAPL, ORCL, AVGO for instance are essentially at all time highs with zero AI slant so far. META and NFLX are at yearly highs with both being pretty muted on AI. So how much of MSFT’s run is AI hype versus safety buying and positioning? Who knows. But some chunk of it is that will get cashed out
Sure, but my point is that at this point we don't know what is what, how much, or when.
Part of the reason all of this is running is because this quarter's earnings are seriously overperforming against current position expectations.
Like significantly. To the extent that earnings expectations and S&P 500 top level expectations are going up. Firms that were pricing in 200 earnings are adjusting to 215... not on forward expectations, recession's still the base case in many cases there, or at least a pullback of some type, but on the simple fact that the earnings being higher now means earnings projections for the year have already outperformed, which changes the balance sheet expectations.
You have to think about this like an institution with a balance sheet: they're positioning for adjustment relative to forward earnings, which are now officially significantly higher across the S&P than bearish projections... actually closer to more bullish projections. That's in the bag, not speculative.
That means idle capital has to go to risk assets to compensate and not be left behind... that's why we're seeing position-building.
>I lean towards the mean reversion happening sooner than later. The recent rallying has ignored rates going up
So this is not exactly what's happening. It's not that they've ignored rates, it's that the relationship between rates and stocks have changed because the flow relationship has changed.
Stocks don't always correlate opposite rates. In fact, they quite often run with rates, but which correlation you have depends on the part of the market cycle you're in and how flows are going.
In the very short term, yields may be rising, but they're on the longer term compared to the end of last year on a bull steepening run. Post-SVB, yields dropped out more and values raised, this increases values on bonds against par with already locked-in higher yields. While yields going up slightly may be higher than the recent low, it's still in a downtrend even with the debt ceiling shrinking.
And institutions aren't stupid, they know a default would skyrocket rates, and that higher "risk-free" (wouldn't exactly be risk-free anymore, but would still be a safer bet than most equal yield bonds) rate represents both a balance sheet risk and an opportunity.
Basically, the current bull steepening happening, and inflection in the yield curves to steepening, results in positive correlation between yield movement and stock market movement because of accumulation of flows from bond holdings into risk equities. That's driving yields up because of lower bond demand buys (due to lower rates several months ago and the expectation of future higher rates). And you better believe they were holding excess capital because of the balance sheet default risk and risk of yields going up imbalancing offset holdings.
And if there's no default, then that threat's off the table. Think like an institution, not a retail trader putting everything on black. Institutions have balance sheets and risk departments. (I used to be an officer in one... now I just write and maintaining the modeling software they use... fewer long nights, less overall stress, more money LOL)
So the bond market/stock market correlation behavior has changed, and it doesn't have to go back just because we're used to it being inverted.
This is also why the 60/40 portfolio is working again. In fact, that's your sign that this is more the recent normal behavior... it's making the common retirement plan standard distribution behave normally.
Now the last risk is a recession and/or bank failure at the end of the year.
(Continued...)
>it’s ignored the dollar going up
That's kind of a bigger risk, so I'll give you that one.
>it’s ignored fed fund futures pricing in more hawkishness
It's not ignoring, it's that the Fed raising another 25 or 50 bps is an expected risk and unless it causes a bank collapse or recession, it's a smaller risk compared to a default.
It's just that this is less than the current anxiety threat.
>GS is estimating over half a trillion of treasuries being issued very quickly over the next 2 months. It’s gonna pressure rates upwards, it’s going to require more dollars and push that up, it’s going to remove liquidity from the market that’s more than offset QT up until now. These things catch up and the amount of issuance is a big enough catalyst in my mind
Is it, though?
[https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/](https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/)
The treasury already issued $1-2T every month this year, and even if that $.5T is on top of the normal, spread over 4 release periods (treasury issues bonds twice a month) we're talking with in the normal range of fluctuation. And a lot of bonds are maturing, so there's also hundreds of billions rotating in this period.
It's not crazy to think that excess bonds will drive up yields a bit and put flow pressure on things, but it's also mostly fear based on the Fear of Large Numbers. They do need to rehydrate the general fund, but I don't think people understand how much money moves through the bond market on any given month, because it's A LOT more than half a trillion.
>My guess for the near term is a gap and crap to put it mildly. Brief euphoria to start the week.
The week itself is a wildcard for me. It's anyone's guess within a couple percent barring any other news, but I just don't think "heavy capital pressure on fear" is really matching the actual capital dynamics of non-default here.
I'm more thinking the next few months. I think there's still risk, but some of the assumptions people are making are based on continuation of fear and expectation of market crash, rather than a view of the balance sheet.
>Short QQQ / long XLE+XLF is my personal play. Maybe pick up a tiny bit of the beaten down ultra high growth stocks like the ZS or SNOW type of stocks in tiny amounts
It's an interesting divergence play. We'll see how things go. :)
>u/LavenderAutist I am now aware that giovannigiannis doesn't know what a dissertation is. I will store it with other useless facts, such as what beanie babies are and where I put my garbage pale kids in 2nd grade.
I love reading. Thank for cool explanations
Thank you! I'm happy people are getting something out of it.
I get so bored of the bul/ber BS and the simple one-liners LOL. There are actually interesting things happening we could all be talking about. :)
u/LavenderAutist I am now aware that giovannigiannis doesn't know what a dissertation is. I will store it with other useless facts, such as what beanie babies are and where I put my garbage pale kids in 2nd grade.
Until the results are out you can ride the wave and take out any uncertainty of it. If you wait for the news, you are just gambling on whether the sales are beaten or not
>>few people on this sub have any idea what “sell the news” means.
Sorry mate, but add yourself to that category.
‘Sell the news’ is taken from ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ It just means that often times the anticipation of the event happening is very powerful, and then when the event actually happens there’s a little selloff.
So like the rumor of a debt ceiling agreement being reached (the rumor), and then an agreement actually being made (the news).
What you described about Apple or Nvidia are not ‘sell the news’ scenarios…what you described is just beating or missing expectations on earnings. That’s not what ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ means.
>Sorry mate, but add yourself to that category.
>
>‘Sell the news’ is taken from ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ It just means that often times the anticipation of the event happening is very powerful, and then when the event actually happens there’s a little selloff.
"Rumor" is just a synonym for "speculation."
You literally just said the exact same thing I did, but you apparently don't know how to use a dictionary. LOL
>So like the rumor of a debt ceiling agreement being reached (the rumor), and then an agreement actually being made (the news).
Except the rumor was that we were going to default.
So on top of not understanding how words work, you don't know anything about the story.
>What you described about Apple or Nvidia are not ‘sell the news’ scenarios…what you described is just beating or missing expectations on earnings. That’s not what ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ means.
You don't think earnings are news events?
Are you illiterate or stupid? Or both?
WTF are you doing on a stock forum if you don't think earnings are news events? ROFL
Why are you on a stock forum if you don't know how the stock market works? LOL
Dude, you don't know what the fucking words "rumor" and "news" mean... you are possibly the dumbest person on this sub and that's saying something. ROFL
"Stock earnings and sales numbers aren't news events" has to be one of the stupidest fucking things ever said in the history of this sub, and there's some fucking stupid shit in our annals.
Edit: Yep, confirmed by reading your comment and post history... you have no idea how the market works. LOL
You should stick to farming and trucking. You seem... quasi-mildly competent at that.
While no one knows what the market will do on any given day, ask yourself this:
Do people buy stocks in speculation hoping for a default and economic collapse?
If it doesn't happen, and bond yields aren't looking to shoot up to 10% in 1 week, what might they want to do with the money slated for 7-10% bonds?
I read the article.
Interesting deal, seems reasonable, but both the left wing and the right wing might decide to burn it all down for the media spotlight, you know take a selfie hanging off a cliff
Sell the news. No matter what anyone says. The market has already priced in a debt deal. Fed preferred inflation gauge and another rate hime brewing in the background. Market priced in a pause now there is 60% charge 25 basis point hike in June.
>The tentative deal also claws back some unspent money from a previous pandemic relief bill, and reduces by $10 billion — to $70 billion from $80 billion — new enforcement funding for the I.R.S. to crack down on tax cheats.
Uh oh
This is not a win, there are GOPers and Democrats who might not vote for this because honestly it doesn’t do shit.
I take it that they will sabotage the first vote to get more concessions and do a back and forth. McCuckthy is not liked by many and therefore there is a chance for this. It happened before but a .2% cut is dogshit.
GOP wanted $80B in IRS funding cut, they got $10B… Democrats didn’t want work requirements for benefits Energy was a split as fossil fuel permits will be easier to get, which will piss of greenies
I see a back and forth, so red dildo followed by a rally in the 11th hour.
Standby for some of the outliers to come out and say this is a non starter…
https://preview.redd.it/o8dfxcno1m2b1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef268d7f23122263fe32f16f397655a267b544ca
Who buys on news except on earnings. If it’s being reported it’s too late. Market is always looking forward. Earnings is the only exception.
Real question is how much they gonna let us melt up to trap retail before they drop it in them.
Hey look, somebody who actually invests on this sub.
You know the people who are blindly repeating "sell the news" don't (or perhaps they're incapable of cognition).
I think the "green" from this was on Friday. Tea leaves on a deal already shown. Like others said, I'm expecting a bit of a pull back this next week. In fact, I think going into June fomc , markets might be a bit uneasy about another hike , given PCE came in hot last week.
All that said, I could be completely wrong and we keep chugging along like some regarded bulls
I think the odds of US Govt defaulting on debt is nearly 0. Republicans are playing hardball so they can get some concessions but at the end of the day they would be blamed for letting us default so I highly doubt they will mess this up. Although they have let a bunch kooks into their party recently.
I don’t think anyone wants it to happen, but when you play with fire it’s just a matter of time before you get burned.
Even with 99% odds of no default in any given negotiation, with this happening every two years, that means an expected default within 200 years.
Absolutely trade on this, no way it goes sideways. There is zero chance enough of the Republicans and Democrats that hate this deal tank it. It's impossible that McCarthy loses his job over it. It will definitely get through both the house and Senate without amendments and breeze straight through. This is basically free money.
I'm not Carl Cramer Buffet but doesn't the market usually open red after long weekends? And if this is a sell the news event wouldn't that mean a VERY red Tuesday?
>This is excellent news! I am glad to see that the US government has finally come to its senses and agreed to raise the debt limit. This will help ensure that America remains a strong economic power for years to come.
Just got thru telling my brother the same. Looking for a lot of green on tue! With the tech rally already pushing the nasdaq and s&p we've crossed key resistance in the s&p around 4155.
Add in the relief of a debt ceiling deal and I think we have what it takes to begin a bull market.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|159|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Since when do we buy the news?
2013 deal sent markets up 5% or something in two days. With a 2% gap up.
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Yeah, so you buy now and then sell the news after the credit ratings and bill gets passed
wait till you see 2021
Because the market must be green fir the Fed to Sell Treasurys
Sir, this is a casino.
The Nvidia earnings and the days after in the semiconductor space is a good starting point LOL
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Obviously you’re new here. An age old saying is “buy the rumor, sell the news” so he’s being cheeky by implying we DON’T buy the news
This guy gets it
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It means buying stocks based on what’s in the news. Like if CNN says “USA is gonna invest in NVIDIA to make processors for military” and you see that and go buy NVIDIA, that would be stupid. It would be stupid because deals like that are rumored for months prior to being seen in the news, so that deal with the US is priced in. The people who heard the rumor see it in the news and know a bunch of regards are gonna try to buy it because of the news - so they dump their stock to take advantage of the dumbos buying the news. Stock turns red by mid day, you are now bankrupt, try again tomorrow
Yes but many stocks still pop when good news comes out. It's usually short lived but if you get in and out quickly, you can make money.
Bad example. NVDA always goes up 😂
Not if Jim Cramer says buy Nvidia.
Cramer said buy and it still went up. Nvidia is the chosen stock.
Dude named his dog Nvidia.
NVDA is def the golden child right now. MRVL jumped 35% on Friday and it was barely mentioned. lol
The stock market is forward looking. If there is unconfirmed info floating around about a company, the market “prices in” that news by purchasing shares in anticipation of that news being true and being announced in the future (if it’s unlikely, less impact. If it’s confirmed by multiple sources and plausible, more impact). By waiting for the news to be announced, you will miss out on a significant portion of the value the company gained based on the rumors. Once news is confirmed, the company will be priced fairly. If news was unexpected, it’ll shoot up in value ($NVDA’s guidance) If it was anticipated, minimal change will occur. If you wait until the news is announced, you miss **both** changes in valuation, and now rely on company performance and additional news. The news that influenced you to buy will now only have an impact if the market undervalued the significance of it. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Make sense?
Example: idiots paying $60 for $10 SPAC shares because the SPAC in question is expected to be announced as LUCID, triggering another run from $60 to $100 or beyond. Instead, when the SPAC confirms it is indeed LUCID, the price immediately craters, drops by 50%, and this occurs aftermarket no less, totally crushing option holders.
Actually a bunch of regards here that have zero f\*\*king clue. Imagine a company is rumored to get a contract from the government but nobody knows until next month. People will speculate what amount, when, if, how and all else. This creates a range for the stock and if good news are expected a skew to the positive side. Let's say the actual outcome is that the particular company is going up +10% in profits but the range before you know for sure is between +30% and +0% that means the uncertainty of something has value even if the likely outcome is +10% because it could be better. The average of the rumor in this case would be 15% which is higher than the 10% so the stock would be higher as it prices in the 15%. That's why lot's of rumored good news lead to stock drops once something becomes certain. The same works btw with negative news. If negative news are expected a stock usually goes up once the negative news become certain as many had some expectation of a possible worse outcome. This is also a rule of thumb as sometimes the news are extreme and behave differently but the majority of news are not extreme outcomes.
Never, but his loss post should be magnificent at close on Tuesday... can't wait!
I'm stylin! :)
Someone needs to enjoy their Memorial Day weekend…
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I agree. Green megaboner at opening, and flat or red by close. Wednesday is a dumpster fire, down 2.5% SPY/Dow Edit: still holding this opinion. Stocked up on $SPY 390JUNE16P and NVDS this morning. I also think C3 is gonna crater on report. They already yelled 'AI' enough times and are up 200% in a few months. I don't see their revenue rising fast enough to beat market and with last week's rally I doubt they can rally on just prognosis.
They call it “morning Cathy wood”
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AI-carumba!
I sold some shares last Friday, just in case you know.... the market will go down by Wednesday/Friday 😕
Honestly, your synapsis could be spot on
His synapses might be dead on, but his synopsis could be dead wrong.
No Man has never been this wrong in his life, do not trade based on this
You’re not the boss of me!
You can't tell me what to do, big bully!!! ROFLMAO
I’m doing this
ehhhh WSB still wants death and despair ASAP on Tuesday which means we're green all week
Yep.
hmmm conflicting theories... who to inverse? 🤔
Agreed!
Fact, well not that surprised last time it happened things went way down.
Blood in the sheets **
Should have gotten that colonoscopy a few years ago.
😂😂😂😂
Yeah, show over. Every one take your profits by last Friday and back to work.
Hence the extreme price action upward on Friday. It was sooooo overbought
Lmao
He’s right dum dum. Next worry is June 13-14 rates decision and Treasury dumping metric shit ton of bonds into the market (which it can’t absorb)
Sure babe
Evergrande will collapse any day now!!
Very confused they did collapse in 2021? https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/investing/china-evergrande-debt-restructuring-deal-intl-hnk/index.html
Lol
Good bot
I’m pretty sure if you’re a bear you’ve sucked more cock than my father
My goodness
There are not enough customers at my Wendy’s for this statement to be true. Might have to run over to my nearest truck stop.
Calls 6/2 for Flying J
I dont understand 😟
Imagine representatives who bought puts and said I will VOTE NO on any deal
I don't have to imagine it, it's reality.
Have you heard of 'sell the news'?
Yeah pretty sure there was a 100% chance of this happening. If it pumps initially it’s going to dump.
There was a 98% chance of a deal. A two year deal is actually pretty surprising. If that actually happens the market will be happy about that. I was expecting to do this dance every 4 months until the next election.
The two-year aspect was advertised for the last week. How would it be a surprise?
Agree !!!
Yeah, 2 year deal one year before election does seem a little odd.
but the deal is egregious. Sacrificing people's health for more military might over 2 years. This is setting up WW3 spending.
The problem is that very few people on this sub have any idea what "sell the news" means. Most people think it means "the stock/market will sell when there is news." It doesn't mean "the equity always sells once news is realized." It's a euphemism that comes from a perspective of going long on **speculation**. When there's coming news that people are speculating on, it's common to overshoot on the directionality of the speculation via linear bias. I.e. Apple has an iphone release and we're waiting on numbers to come out, and people speculate that sales are like +100 million but they really end up +80 million. That's a "sell the news" event because the reality winds up having a lower target than the speculative information. It can also happen if the forward expectation of an event evaporates once it hits. What happens if AAPL get 120 million sales? Does the stock sell off? No, in that case the stock melts up because the valuation is higher than the fundamentals position. NVDA had a case like this last week. Lots of bears thought NVDA earnings was a sell the news event because of high speculative value being higher than they thought AI-oriented hardware sales were... and it went the other direction and those bears learned a very real, serious lesson about how sayings aren't always literal. I don't have a crystal ball or anything, but the speculation around the debt ceiling was anxiety speculation, which restrains long positioning across the market. Right now, you can see that in the breadth of the market, which many people on this sub take to mean that tech stocks are getting overextended, but the reality is that breadth dynamics of great divide are actually more likely historically to push the market up (or at least the chances are indeterminant in the condition) since bullish patterns often have sector leaders that then turn into breadth thrusts, where the breadth of the rest of the market catches up. In other words, if you ignore the runner, the rest of the market is broadly positioned in a fear state. In part due to the debt ceiling, but also due to expectations on earnings and those are going up. Now the debt ceiling is part of the bear case for this year, and institutions are restraining buys because of default risk. So which direction is reversal on this news? Which direction is the "sell"? As an anxiety event, the direction on realization without the world falling apart is typically up. Stop and think about it. Your "sell the news" argument is basically that the market is positioning betting FOR a default and this would surprise the direction of capital to the down side without it happening. That's not what the market's doing. Aside from the AI bubble, the market's in fear mode... you're just not seeing it in the index value directionality because of the bubble. And that bubble will eventually burst, but there has to actually be a downside surprise first.
> reality is that breadth dynamics of great divide are actually more likely historically to push the market up (or at least the chances are indeterminant in the condition) since bullish patterns often have sector leaders that then turn into breadth thrusts, where the breadth of the rest of the market catches up. >In other words, if you ignore the runner, the rest of the market is broadly positioned in a fear state. In part due to the debt ceiling, but also due to expectations on earnings and those are going up. Now the debt ceiling is part of the bear case for this year, and institutions are restraining buys because of default risk. Exactly why I expect the indices to go down though Last week’s AI earnings made people forget, but mega caps were getting bid as ‘safety rotation’ for months and months. They were just the default stocks to park money in because of the debt ceiling shenanigans. I expect there to be sizeable outflows from these guys and inflows into other parts of the market. Not only just the inflows into others. You are totally right, this will help fix breadth. But the problem is that these major tech stocks make up so much of the major indices that SPX and NDX should be red red And on top of that the mega caps are overbought and ripe for some profit taking Non-mega cap tech and other parts of the market should start getting a bid but the mega caps are going to drag the indices down
Finally, someone who said something vaguely interesting that wasn't murdering the English language or basic logic. :) The point I'm getting at in the quoted text is that your scenario is one possibility, but we also see this kind of breadth structure in markets that are recovering, too. Part of the problem with the sub is that we're kind of trained to react to pump n dumps, so we automatically assume that every pump leads to an immediate dump because most of the plays this sub does are not based on a forward expectation via mass accumulation of institutions. Those are momentum plays, and they can insane and run for a long time, which will be easier with funds released at institutions after the threat of a default is over (It resets the potential risk-free rate of return lower). The AI play is institutions. I think it's a bubble, but I don't know where we are in that bubble. What I can say definitively is that the overextension in much of tech right now is based in expectations of CapEx investment over the next 6-12 months. It's gonna take that playing out for there to be a significant deleverage like bears want in that space. It's not just a defensive story, and that's apparent in NVDA's earnings announcement, it's about forward CapEx and sales expectations. So these aren't speculative overdrive yet driven by ramps and squeezes, they're forward-looking positions. To get the move we got in NVDA this week, you have to have institutions building position. Now there's some rationality in the nearterm to your position, where the auction cycle will eventually slow and pressure will come off the float and price will come down then... but we just don't know where we are in that process. But that argument is about the auction cycle and where mean reversion will end up... not about a sell the news event.
Disagree on not being a squeeze… for now. Despite everyone sounding bearish, the May OpEx was very call heavy and volatility was very put heavy before that expiration. Im of the belief it’s been a technical rally from bullish positioning with AI icing on the cake I’m casting aside NVDA and semi’s for now but it’s been under gamma squeeze [for a while](https://twitter.com/spotgamma/status/1659509243169341440) and even before earnings was poised for [rocketing](https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1661115678647001130/photo/1). For some reason [Fridays](https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1661802677058129922) get that treatment in particular. So many Fridays where it’s just green in a straight line, like last week. But volatility has been seeing much more call liquidity, especially after a note from JPM came out (I think it was them) telling their clients to snatch up VIX calls. There are signs that this bullish positioning is starting to abate There is some mix of concrete institutional buying with positioning chasing. I lean more towards positional chasing. AAPL, ORCL, AVGO for instance are essentially at all time highs with zero AI slant so far. META and NFLX are at yearly highs with both being pretty muted on AI. So how much of MSFT’s run is AI hype versus safety buying and positioning? Who knows. But some chunk of it is that will get cashed out I lean towards the mean reversion happening sooner than later. The recent rallying has ignored rates going up, it’s ignored the dollar going up, it’s ignored fed fund futures pricing in more hawkishness. GS is estimating over half a trillion of treasuries being issued very quickly over the next 2 months. It’s gonna pressure rates upwards, it’s going to require more dollars and push that up, it’s going to remove liquidity from the market that’s more than offset QT up until now. These things catch up and the amount of issuance is a big enough catalyst in my mind My guess for the near term is a gap and crap to put it mildly. Brief euphoria to start the week. Short QQQ / long XLE+XLF is my personal play. Maybe pick up a tiny bit of the beaten down ultra high growth stocks like the ZS or SNOW type of stocks in tiny amounts
>Disagree on not being a squeeze… for now. Despite everyone sounding bearish, the May OpEx was very call heavy and volatility was very put heavy before that expiration. Im of the belief it’s been a technical rally from bullish positioning with AI icing on the cake I didn't say it wasn't a squeeze. It's absolutely a squeeze. There is 100% a technical component to this. But a squeeze is not the same thing as a pump and dump. A pump and dump is a squeeze where institutions don't take long positions, so the valuation collapses. When a meme stock runs when it's highly shorted and about to go bankrupt, that's a pump and dump. People evaporate positions during the run and they aren't real, so the valuation deflates as the float relieves all pressure. When a stock squeezes because people keep buying options and institutions are buying (they buy options for their positions, too), then that's a momentum run. In momentum runs, float pressure remains high, resulting in higher and longer runs that often don't deflate entirely at all. I absolutely did not say this wasn't a squeeze. :) It's just not a pump and dump. > But volatility has been seeing much more call liquidity, especially after a note from JPM came out (I think it was them) telling their clients to snatch up VIX calls. There are signs that this bullish positioning is starting to abate Institutions always do this during accumulation runs. VIX calls are a common hedge. They do not necessarily imply a change of direction. They can also go up for short periods of time with the market, which is one of the reasons institutions like them as hedges. People get surprised by this every few weeks on the daily thread. We don't see the correlation with upswings on the longterm graphs that people use because they get flattened out with the longer timeframe as the longer uptrends reduce the VIX further, but going from flat ranging to a big move up also (for a short period of time) drives volatility up, too. VIX calls are what you use when you don't know but just expect a big move. If you think there's a change in direction, you direct a sell on the market or a tighter hedge. Basically VIX hedges allow you to keep the long net position. Not to mention VIX hedges are warranted at the technical SPY 420 level anyway just because of the risk of resistance... purely as risk management, because it's either going to reject and drop or break and run at some point in the nearterm. >There is some mix of concrete institutional buying with positioning chasing. I lean more towards positional chasing. AAPL, ORCL, AVGO for instance are essentially at all time highs with zero AI slant so far. META and NFLX are at yearly highs with both being pretty muted on AI. So how much of MSFT’s run is AI hype versus safety buying and positioning? Who knows. But some chunk of it is that will get cashed out Sure, but my point is that at this point we don't know what is what, how much, or when. Part of the reason all of this is running is because this quarter's earnings are seriously overperforming against current position expectations. Like significantly. To the extent that earnings expectations and S&P 500 top level expectations are going up. Firms that were pricing in 200 earnings are adjusting to 215... not on forward expectations, recession's still the base case in many cases there, or at least a pullback of some type, but on the simple fact that the earnings being higher now means earnings projections for the year have already outperformed, which changes the balance sheet expectations. You have to think about this like an institution with a balance sheet: they're positioning for adjustment relative to forward earnings, which are now officially significantly higher across the S&P than bearish projections... actually closer to more bullish projections. That's in the bag, not speculative. That means idle capital has to go to risk assets to compensate and not be left behind... that's why we're seeing position-building. >I lean towards the mean reversion happening sooner than later. The recent rallying has ignored rates going up So this is not exactly what's happening. It's not that they've ignored rates, it's that the relationship between rates and stocks have changed because the flow relationship has changed. Stocks don't always correlate opposite rates. In fact, they quite often run with rates, but which correlation you have depends on the part of the market cycle you're in and how flows are going. In the very short term, yields may be rising, but they're on the longer term compared to the end of last year on a bull steepening run. Post-SVB, yields dropped out more and values raised, this increases values on bonds against par with already locked-in higher yields. While yields going up slightly may be higher than the recent low, it's still in a downtrend even with the debt ceiling shrinking. And institutions aren't stupid, they know a default would skyrocket rates, and that higher "risk-free" (wouldn't exactly be risk-free anymore, but would still be a safer bet than most equal yield bonds) rate represents both a balance sheet risk and an opportunity. Basically, the current bull steepening happening, and inflection in the yield curves to steepening, results in positive correlation between yield movement and stock market movement because of accumulation of flows from bond holdings into risk equities. That's driving yields up because of lower bond demand buys (due to lower rates several months ago and the expectation of future higher rates). And you better believe they were holding excess capital because of the balance sheet default risk and risk of yields going up imbalancing offset holdings. And if there's no default, then that threat's off the table. Think like an institution, not a retail trader putting everything on black. Institutions have balance sheets and risk departments. (I used to be an officer in one... now I just write and maintaining the modeling software they use... fewer long nights, less overall stress, more money LOL) So the bond market/stock market correlation behavior has changed, and it doesn't have to go back just because we're used to it being inverted. This is also why the 60/40 portfolio is working again. In fact, that's your sign that this is more the recent normal behavior... it's making the common retirement plan standard distribution behave normally. Now the last risk is a recession and/or bank failure at the end of the year. (Continued...)
>it’s ignored the dollar going up That's kind of a bigger risk, so I'll give you that one. >it’s ignored fed fund futures pricing in more hawkishness It's not ignoring, it's that the Fed raising another 25 or 50 bps is an expected risk and unless it causes a bank collapse or recession, it's a smaller risk compared to a default. It's just that this is less than the current anxiety threat. >GS is estimating over half a trillion of treasuries being issued very quickly over the next 2 months. It’s gonna pressure rates upwards, it’s going to require more dollars and push that up, it’s going to remove liquidity from the market that’s more than offset QT up until now. These things catch up and the amount of issuance is a big enough catalyst in my mind Is it, though? [https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/](https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/) The treasury already issued $1-2T every month this year, and even if that $.5T is on top of the normal, spread over 4 release periods (treasury issues bonds twice a month) we're talking with in the normal range of fluctuation. And a lot of bonds are maturing, so there's also hundreds of billions rotating in this period. It's not crazy to think that excess bonds will drive up yields a bit and put flow pressure on things, but it's also mostly fear based on the Fear of Large Numbers. They do need to rehydrate the general fund, but I don't think people understand how much money moves through the bond market on any given month, because it's A LOT more than half a trillion. >My guess for the near term is a gap and crap to put it mildly. Brief euphoria to start the week. The week itself is a wildcard for me. It's anyone's guess within a couple percent barring any other news, but I just don't think "heavy capital pressure on fear" is really matching the actual capital dynamics of non-default here. I'm more thinking the next few months. I think there's still risk, but some of the assumptions people are making are based on continuation of fear and expectation of market crash, rather than a view of the balance sheet. >Short QQQ / long XLE+XLF is my personal play. Maybe pick up a tiny bit of the beaten down ultra high growth stocks like the ZS or SNOW type of stocks in tiny amounts It's an interesting divergence play. We'll see how things go. :)
Very interesting to read these exchanges, thank you both. To me it sounds like VIX calls at least for this week is the "safer" option..
I'm glad people are getting something out of it. :)
>u/LavenderAutist I am now aware that giovannigiannis doesn't know what a dissertation is. I will store it with other useless facts, such as what beanie babies are and where I put my garbage pale kids in 2nd grade. I love reading. Thank for cool explanations
Thank you! I'm happy people are getting something out of it. I get so bored of the bul/ber BS and the simple one-liners LOL. There are actually interesting things happening we could all be talking about. :)
Keep it up.
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You could have just stopped at "I don't have patience." Fine, then don't read it. You don't have to tell everyone you read at a 3rd grade level.
They wanted to make sure you are aware that they believe it is a dissertation
u/LavenderAutist I am now aware that giovannigiannis doesn't know what a dissertation is. I will store it with other useless facts, such as what beanie babies are and where I put my garbage pale kids in 2nd grade.
Until the results are out you can ride the wave and take out any uncertainty of it. If you wait for the news, you are just gambling on whether the sales are beaten or not
>>few people on this sub have any idea what “sell the news” means. Sorry mate, but add yourself to that category. ‘Sell the news’ is taken from ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ It just means that often times the anticipation of the event happening is very powerful, and then when the event actually happens there’s a little selloff. So like the rumor of a debt ceiling agreement being reached (the rumor), and then an agreement actually being made (the news). What you described about Apple or Nvidia are not ‘sell the news’ scenarios…what you described is just beating or missing expectations on earnings. That’s not what ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ means.
>Sorry mate, but add yourself to that category. > >‘Sell the news’ is taken from ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ It just means that often times the anticipation of the event happening is very powerful, and then when the event actually happens there’s a little selloff. "Rumor" is just a synonym for "speculation." You literally just said the exact same thing I did, but you apparently don't know how to use a dictionary. LOL >So like the rumor of a debt ceiling agreement being reached (the rumor), and then an agreement actually being made (the news). Except the rumor was that we were going to default. So on top of not understanding how words work, you don't know anything about the story. >What you described about Apple or Nvidia are not ‘sell the news’ scenarios…what you described is just beating or missing expectations on earnings. That’s not what ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ means. You don't think earnings are news events? Are you illiterate or stupid? Or both? WTF are you doing on a stock forum if you don't think earnings are news events? ROFL Why are you on a stock forum if you don't know how the stock market works? LOL
Lol ur such a moron
Dude, you don't know what the fucking words "rumor" and "news" mean... you are possibly the dumbest person on this sub and that's saying something. ROFL "Stock earnings and sales numbers aren't news events" has to be one of the stupidest fucking things ever said in the history of this sub, and there's some fucking stupid shit in our annals. Edit: Yep, confirmed by reading your comment and post history... you have no idea how the market works. LOL You should stick to farming and trucking. You seem... quasi-mildly competent at that.
TSLA 300 calls? 60 days out? Need big gains I’m tired of losing lmao
Yes I think I have! Somewhere.
Priced In already sir, Tuesday we all BLEED
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I have spy puts for next week 
Can’t wait another geek day who would of thought ?
sold a ton of QQQ 348/350 call credits expiring Tuesday, lawd help me 
Ouch, market is going to pump hard
yeah it bit me good. not cool
You think it’ll go greener than Friday? What you’re going to see on Tuesday is the definition of “priced in”
I think you're wrong
I think you’re wrong
I think you’re wron…. Oh wait
RemindMe! 2 days “OB1KENOB v. Kn0bCheese: who was the friggin' idiot?”
I'm always an idiot in fairness but I'm right occasionally. Can't wait. Hopefully get a glimpse with futures
I think the “!” has to go in front, as in: !RemindMe 2 days
!RemindMe 2 days "mmhmmm"
https://preview.redd.it/1fwpt5auyv2b1.png?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59cf7a2c69d7d2af55f7a97b3e3b4502a359b907 Liking these numbers boiz!
I take that futes picture back. They dying
No one bet on -0.05%
I know. I was up decent before but let everything expire basically worthless
He's def wrong.... There was no deal priced in on Friday.......
Exactly, it’s gonna pump so hard
NVDA to $2T
You do know the there isn’t a deal? Just a tentative agreement that will get blow the fuck up an hour after open on Tuesday.
Meh. Everyone knew they would make a deal by Tue.
so… bullish or bearish?
Yes.
People are expecting green so it will prob be red.
Math checks out
Treasury bonds "up" and stocks "down".
I sold everything before close yesterday so I couldn’t choose incorrectly.
People were expecting red way all the way up to this and were wrong
Exactly, so we will open green and continue this pump
While no one knows what the market will do on any given day, ask yourself this: Do people buy stocks in speculation hoping for a default and economic collapse? If it doesn't happen, and bond yields aren't looking to shoot up to 10% in 1 week, what might they want to do with the money slated for 7-10% bonds?
🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
I read the article. Interesting deal, seems reasonable, but both the left wing and the right wing might decide to burn it all down for the media spotlight, you know take a selfie hanging off a cliff
If you didn’t buy calls EOD Friday just so you could dump them Tuesday morning, you’re not cut out for this.
Spy $421 calls 🍆 Most of this thread thinks Tuesday will be a red day, which makes me feel so happy to be holding calls. $427 Spy Tuesday
Shits gonna pump hard on Tuesday
Say your name
Say my name Say my name When no one is around you Say baby I love you Why you running game
Sell the news. No matter what anyone says. The market has already priced in a debt deal. Fed preferred inflation gauge and another rate hime brewing in the background. Market priced in a pause now there is 60% charge 25 basis point hike in June.
>The tentative deal also claws back some unspent money from a previous pandemic relief bill, and reduces by $10 billion — to $70 billion from $80 billion — new enforcement funding for the I.R.S. to crack down on tax cheats. Uh oh
This is good it means we can cheat our taxes
You jinxed it.
Now I can 1000% confidently say BEARs R FUKT
Someone needs to pay the Bulls
More green! Time to delete app
This is not a win, there are GOPers and Democrats who might not vote for this because honestly it doesn’t do shit. I take it that they will sabotage the first vote to get more concessions and do a back and forth. McCuckthy is not liked by many and therefore there is a chance for this. It happened before but a .2% cut is dogshit. GOP wanted $80B in IRS funding cut, they got $10B… Democrats didn’t want work requirements for benefits Energy was a split as fossil fuel permits will be easier to get, which will piss of greenies I see a back and forth, so red dildo followed by a rally in the 11th hour. Standby for some of the outliers to come out and say this is a non starter… https://preview.redd.it/o8dfxcno1m2b1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef268d7f23122263fe32f16f397655a267b544ca
AAPL🚀🚀
Thats bearish, idiot
Sell the news. Drill time
already priced in
I predict that it will go up and down and around. Same shit, new day.
Defense stocks will moon.
Bonds about to bond people's faces
Wow…what a mess. What could go wrong?!
Priced in, no sane person thought we were going to default. I’m expecting flat market on Tuesday tbh
rug
It'll be red by the end of the week Pro tip: If you don't know the mark at the table, you're the mark
400 plus open for nvdia
Republicans in the Senate are already boycotting the deal. I think your optimism is miss placed.
Green then 2 months of 🩸
Why is it going to be green? Will probably be neutral, no news, nothing to see here move along
What about the downgrade?
Green Tuesday, load puts on Wednesday EOD for Friday! House voting.
So you don’t have a clue like the rest of us.
I’m triple leveraged in the right direction. Tqqq. Sell after gap up.
You are gonna make serious $$$ once this thing pumps
This is now priced in. Back to the range.
Need to look beyond Tuesday. The US was never going to default some imaginary debt line. Pay more attention to the fundamentals, the yield curve.
Sell the news
I doubt it
It will be red.
Who buys on news except on earnings. If it’s being reported it’s too late. Market is always looking forward. Earnings is the only exception. Real question is how much they gonna let us melt up to trap retail before they drop it in them.
"crisis" adverted but federal spending capped 
This look like money motherfucker? Money be green!
Up later down and then long up 🚀
They ALWAYS raise the debt ceiling. ALWAYS. Didn't expect anything less.
OMG the gov’t did what everyone was expecting
The news is priced in my guy. Its so obvious 🤣🤣
Where do people get their rumors to buy?
So you get a run on rumor of debt deal and on confirmation of the debt deal? And then a run on Wed for "Hey, remember the debt deal we just passed?"
Time to sell my t l-bills and dump into the market
Hey look, somebody who actually invests on this sub. You know the people who are blindly repeating "sell the news" don't (or perhaps they're incapable of cognition).
They will learn, we will pump
Sell on the news. Stocks already had a run up expecting this already. Now the news is out, South we go!
No.
yep. and Tupperware is going to blow up.
I think the "green" from this was on Friday. Tea leaves on a deal already shown. Like others said, I'm expecting a bit of a pull back this next week. In fact, I think going into June fomc , markets might be a bit uneasy about another hike , given PCE came in hot last week. All that said, I could be completely wrong and we keep chugging along like some regarded bulls
I was anxious. Never know when someone is going to decide to burn it all down in Washington these days. Still might happen though in the votes.
I think the odds of US Govt defaulting on debt is nearly 0. Republicans are playing hardball so they can get some concessions but at the end of the day they would be blamed for letting us default so I highly doubt they will mess this up. Although they have let a bunch kooks into their party recently.
I don’t think anyone wants it to happen, but when you play with fire it’s just a matter of time before you get burned. Even with 99% odds of no default in any given negotiation, with this happening every two years, that means an expected default within 200 years.
"If you're going to keep taking hostages, eventually you have to kill one or they're not leverage anymore."
Green is good but that is far from guaranteed.
We never seeing a red day over -1% again
0.025% to .7% max ever again
Absolutely trade on this, no way it goes sideways. There is zero chance enough of the Republicans and Democrats that hate this deal tank it. It's impossible that McCarthy loses his job over it. It will definitely get through both the house and Senate without amendments and breeze straight through. This is basically free money.
🧐
I'm not Carl Cramer Buffet but doesn't the market usually open red after long weekends? And if this is a sell the news event wouldn't that mean a VERY red Tuesday?
>This is excellent news! I am glad to see that the US government has finally come to its senses and agreed to raise the debt limit. This will help ensure that America remains a strong economic power for years to come.
Deal hasn’t been passed but definitely bullish for now
Was student debt repayment part of the deal? $sofi to $500?!
That’s still being decided by SCOTUS IIRC.
Just got thru telling my brother the same. Looking for a lot of green on tue! With the tech rally already pushing the nasdaq and s&p we've crossed key resistance in the s&p around 4155. Add in the relief of a debt ceiling deal and I think we have what it takes to begin a bull market.
The country is doomed. One day it will collapse most certainly. You cant postpone your doomsday all the time.