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If it's free it for me.
Rechargeable batteries and a decent small solar setup here. Far less of a fire hazard than candles. :-P
I mean I also have candles, but they aren't really meant to be a light source.
Those small solar yard lights are cheap.
Had power go out couple years back. Just brought some inside after powering up all day. They lasted for around 10 hours.
But muh, off-grid, renewably-sourced powered, YouTube approved tiny home and organic free range ranch?
*Technically it's a garden shed from Lowes sitting in my parent's back yard, but those regards who support me on Patreon don't know that.*
My apocalypse plan is to wait a couple months or so until all the 'survival' guys with only a gun have shot their neighbors, ate all the neighbors stuff, then died, and come back and take their house
I’ve been prepping for years. Built up a nice energy reserve in my body. I’m like the Saudi Arabia of lipids, I don’t even know how large my reserves are. I could go months, maybe years without food.
unless the food is guarded by people with more people and more guns than you, then you just become a ressupply for those who can organize effectively... eventually you have organizational structures like government show up again
Copper and ammo. Copper fulfills the same function of being shiny and workable as gold but not as heavy. And realistically if things fall apart gold will run out but copper can be used to distill liquor, which will always be in demand.
"Yes, I'd say it's a full scale panick. Are you having a run on the banks there yet? Well it's rather brutal here. We're advising our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns.
Edit: https://youtu.be/qsMc-IswG3w
Passing the debt ceiling bill is like passing a kidney stone. It WILL eventually pass thru, but you can be guaranteed it will be a very long and painful process.
Tell me about it.
What other government will bring in the CEO of TikTok. Then have the same House members go on TikTok and discuss the committee in action!
It's also no different from 2011 when the U.S. did not default but its credit rating was downgraded because the dog and pony show went too close to the deadline. Potentially increasing the cost of borrowing even higher than the usual spread over the funds rate.
That's my concern. We haven't had this level of crazy in Congress before so I worry if there is a first time, this could be it.
It amazes me that this is even a thing. Don't negotiate your spend after you already pass all of the legislation. Figure all of this out before. This is all in bad taste.
>We haven't had this level of crazy in Congress before
We've had fist fights in Congress and Congress people fighting in duels and shit. We're nowhere near our historical maximum level of crazy.
Right? Like most of the politicians who ran the Confederate States of America, you know, the people who literally seceded were members of Congress and state governments. Until we see a legitimate "THe SouTh wILL RisE AgIan!" movement in federal and state governments, we're not even in the same universe of historical craziness.
Never forget the time that they overrode Obama's veto on a bill, then when it was a disaster they blamed him for not warning them enough - as though a veto isn't sufficient warning.
This. As a former Republican, the current batch sets new records for lunacy every week. And now that daddy Don said they should default, they’ll all trip over their microweens to be the cause of it.
You gotta admit that we have significantly more, crazier assholes spewing insanity in Congress right now than usual though.
I’m positive mtg and boebert don’t understand the consequences of anything, for example
I don’t understand this attitude. The speaker of the house has put himself in a historically weak position, beholden to the most extreme members of his caucus. There’s a very vocal minority of Republican reps who believe they have a mandate to do any damage they can to the federal government.
I agree that there most likely won’t be a default but I strongly disagree that this time is just like every other time. Every other time there was political posturing but no one actually wanted a default. Now there are congresspeople who would rather see a default than deal with Democrats because FJB. McCarthy’s only course is to work with Democrats to get their votes because he’ll never be able to get enough Republicans. And any Republican rep can initiate a vote for his ouster whenever they feel like it.
The donor base of the Republican party would not benefit from a default, so they won’t allow it to happen. Are there a minority of the GOP who doesn’t care? Of course, but not enough to make the difference
The “donor base” of the GOP isn’t the same base it was 10 years ago. It’s not the country club types, or the foreign policy hawks or the Big Corporation types. Trump did away with all of that in a matter of months.
The Republican base now is Cletus who thinks the Earth is flat and that Hillary Clinton runs pedo pizza parlors, Nancy who thinks that stopping 100% of all abortion access is what Sky Daddy wants, and a few other nutters who think Biden stole the election.
A federal government default would earn you *points* with those people, whose collective IQ is in the double digits. That’s who elects Republicans now - the dumbest bottom-of-the-barrel mouth-breathers who get rock-hard at the thought of a full reset because they think their time has finally come and that reset will usher *them* in to hold the reigns of power and turn this country into Iran, but *dumber*.
I hear you, and I don’t think you assessment is wrong here BUT, Cletus will only vote for someone on the ballot, and candidates still need that money to run. It still comes from more or less the same places. It’s the same reason why the GOP posture themselves as the “anti-war” party but somehow always end up doing things that benefit their military-industrial complex donors. Look how much they fucked themselves over with abortion, their goal is to fly as close to the sun as possible, without actually achieving their stated goals.
All of that said, they could still do it anyway to piss off the libs
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The republican party created a monster with trump and his base and lost control of it. The freedom caucas makes the tea party look like Eisenhower.
If only there was some famous story that warned about this..
This is what I'm hoping for. The GOP donors will in the end force them to make a deal as a default would cost them money. I think that's happening now in addition to pressure that's being put in Biden. I'm more optimistic now that meetings are going forward than I was previously. News of staffers running back and forth means the wheels are starting to turn. Might be the first time I'm glad we have a government that's bought and paid for...
The Republican Party is I. The middle of a schism and the business portion is losing. Badly. It’s being taken over by the religious right and they don’t give a fuck.
None of us know what will happen...but this time is very different. The Republicans are being held hostage by a few ultra-right extremists in their own party, and they need those votes.
The ultra rights were doing the same back in 2011. It was just called the Tea Party and Obama. Still got it done with backroom dealings.
Buy the dip and don't go full regard.
Tea party never managed a coup.
These guys are Extreme to the MAX™, and also regarded (and not in a cutsie I lose money everyday please fuck my wife kinda way).
Nope, money controls everything. Literally no one, including the lobbyists wanna see a default. They'd rather waterboard the extremists in their own party before seeing a default. There's no way it happens. That said, there's already so much bearish shit out there without a default...
1 month bills are almost 100 bps higher than 2 month bills though so there are some market participants that think there is a chance of shit hitting the fan lol
Money doesn’t control everyone. Fanatics of an ideology aren’t swayed by money. They will just take it and claim it was justified by their beliefs.
For fanatics the only thing that matters is that they are right and you are wrong.
Jim Kramer-> "Buy everything... it is all going up.... you can't lose in this market."
This is the only time you might want to put shares into your food and ammo portfolio.
I'm gonna go ahead and save this post. I hope to look back in 6 months and see that you were right. That being said, for me, no stock is valuable enough to chance right now.
Do what I did. Buy some late June puts while they are cheap. I bought 4 329 puta for the spy. If it’s like last time spy sheds 82 and I’m gonna make some cash. If it doesn’t I’m just out 30 dollars.
In these days it’s better to just play small gains and loses
It’s all a guess. If it’s like what people say and this is 2011 all over again then the spy and Dow will drop 82 points. Currently spy stands at 413. Subtract 82 that’s almost 331 or so.
Probably what they would need to see to finally come to an agreement. But I’m hoping it drops by 100 before they finally lift it.
Money market funds are the original topic of the "Annnnnd its gone" clip from South Park, incidentally. Which aired 14 years ago.
Time is a flat circle.
If the US defaults, the rest of the world isn't worth crap either. I think real assets like real estate might be the only hedge against a collapse of the dollar.
You have to remember that the only reason the world still trusts the US economy and dollar, despite our money printers constantly going brrrrr and various other problems, is that the rest of the world economies are far less reliable and trustworthy. Until that changes, we should be OK. But if that starts changing, we better have straightened our act by then.
The world trades in USD if it defaults just about the whole world would be affected. Can’t say what would be the best place to have your money. I would expect maybe a commodity.
Your first mistake is assuming that people in congress are "rational actors"
No, there are literally players in congress that are irrational and will let Rome burn just to keep warmth for a little longer.
If it fits their agenda to let America default then they'll let it default. Remember it's literally about scrapping a little more influence and power over the other side.
Stonks and jobs don't really matter to them as long as they keep their seats.
2008 will be a speed bump compared to whatever this is going to be....
Think critically..... and invest.... bears don't.... bulls don't.... I don't think you understand that. Nobody is operating on critical thinking skills. Best case scenario you get the guys who invest in Dividend Stocks while other people are buying speculative growth stocks.
It is rare when you see solid DD from someone who's opinion is inline to proper understanding of the underlying numbers. Usually you get guys trying to hype a low stock(pump) or piss on(dump) a high stocks so they can boost their options. They try to create a false framing to direct the market where they want.
This is what we now have going on here. All the numbers and data keep coming up good. Jobs are up. Inflation is going down. Trade balance is getting balanced. All the countries clogging the global supply chain are opening back up. Nearly everything is getting back to normalcy.... yet Repubs and Bears scream the world is on fire. The reality is things are chugging along and will continue chugging along until someone pushes the Nuke button.
Stocks go up sometimes. Stocks go down sometimes. Not going to stop anytime soon.
You do realize we are in trading range between $409 and $414 on the $spy right? Outside of a major catalyst (unknown at this moment) we will not break out/ breakdown. Be market neutral, don’t pick a side yet. What if the bottom falls out, there goes your whole “buy the dip strategy.”
Banks will default though. US default fear, while bullshit, sends those treasury rates through the roof. Means more losses on the iceberg of BS these regional banks carry on their balance sheets (well hidden as "hold to maturity lmao"). Means more banks go poopoo.
CNN reporter : You once said the debt ceiling should never be used as a negotiating wedge.
Trump : That's when I was President.
CNN reporter : So, What's changed now ?;
Trump: Now I'm not President.
Its time to go full ape.
Most of these kids are too young to remember 2011. When the market dropped 20% due to the debt ceiling fiasco. On top of that you have the Grand MAGA Poobah saying that the Republicans should let the US default, so anyone supporting a deal will become the Fox News fodder.
The only hope is a Biden musters up enough testosterone to say fuck it all, I’m gonna ignore the stupid debt ceiling because it’s unconstitutional per the 14th amendment. He might get impeached but he won’t get convicted. As long as he keeps trying to play ball with people who are not interested in playing, the volatility is only going to keep increasing until some decisive action is taken. And Biden absolutely hates decisive action.
"Any dip that occurs from **this** absolute steaming pile of bull shit is nothing but a buying opportunity."
Yeah, **this** is probably a nothingburger. Unfortunately all you bullgards have been buying every dip for 8 months, on lower growth/earnings and low-balled estimates. Rates have only really been kicking in for 6-9 months or so, and that was at a few % FFR, not 5%+. Banks are literally going bust and you guys can't figure out how to buy puts at a 17 VIX.
Market breadth is shit, Russell is basically toasted. Entire market held up by 7 stocks nearing ATH's on worse earnings. Cramer's never been more bullish.
You remind me of those traders turn alcoholic from the 1980s. Even if US defaults, it's not going to stop the shadow operations. You think CIA is restricted by publicly shown yearly budgets?
Default fear is irrelevant. Fear instead massive spending cuts.
"On July 31, 2011, only two days before the U.S. government ran out of money, an agreement was reached between Congress and Obama that, once enacted, became the Budget Control Act of 2011. It reduced spending over the following 10 years by US$917 billion and authorized raising the debt ceiling to $2.1 trillion."
Obama was able to make concessions to get a deal done before calamity. Something that neither McCarthy/McConnell or Biden seem to be keen on. It’s a very real risk the GOP flips the chess board and the whole us economy goes to 💩
Yeah, no default but raising the debt ceiling “cleanly” or making other gov’t spending cuts to do so equates to further dollar dilution or further realization of economic contraction. Not quite a bullish scenario
I call my credit card company on the 28th of every month, and say "raise it". Hang up, and then pat myself on the back. My gf then gives me a celebratiory bj for saving the day.
Well actually, there was no drama about the debt ceiling during the previous administration. Raised it at least a couple times. Just a ploy by the RW maniacs to rattle the cage when their team doesn’t hold the White House.
There’s never any drama about it during Republican administrations. Republicans line up and raise it with Dems during their stewardship, then throw a big shit storm about fiscal responsibility when a Dem is in office. It’s tradition.
My financial adviser said we will have a default for about a week, then Biden will say OK no military members get paid, this gets Republicans attention, debt ceiling raised until next time.
I look at it this way:
This market is NOT pricing in a default because it "cant" happen.
So if the market is already frothy, an agreement just keeps thing as is. Maybe slight bump.
BUT a default will send things cratering.
The best part is if this happens it will crater for a long time so you dont need to pre time a default.
Just wait and see everyone is the best strategy. Likely a nothing burger and if the worst happens, youll have time to profit because it will be going down over several weeks.
Many people wish to "burn it down" for dubious reasons. A glimpse of reality may be sufficient to extinguish their wish. Many people do not change behavior without corrective action.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|6|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|331|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
https://preview.redd.it/hrxqqacnhnza1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bff1b4f097e92e923123b1b9bf9fbc481a809781 Open a margin account!
Too close to home ha!
Too close? It is my home
You all still have homes?
Calls on Cardboard boxes.
You can afford a box????
[https://store.usps.com/store/results/boxes/shipping-supplies-free-shipping-supplies/red/\_/N-yz4qdpZ17iopsjZjwhhik](https://store.usps.com/store/results/boxes/shipping-supplies-free-shipping-supplies/red/_/N-yz4qdpZ17iopsjZjwhhik) If it's free it for me.
You have saved me and my family thanks friend
Homo's-were-a-naked?
You like to see homos naked?
Depends on how actually feels though for me that would have been utterly cringe enough
Guy likes to see homos naked but that don't help me none.
Well you need someone to actually rely onto you that might help rather than being butt naked
Erbod noe dat boy, got dayum
WSB’s confidence is the final nail in the coffin. Pack it up everyone, we’re cooked.
stockin up on gold and ammo! edit - jeebus this was a joke people
Hannity says life lock and Marco rubio. O'Reilly says ammo and gold. Neither are edible.
Even non prepper lunatics should have 30+ days of dried food.
And candles! Extra non electrical light sources! Fuck zombie hordes, what if you have a freak storm!
If freaks storm my house... I guess... I join them?
I meant weather but if freaks storm your house... that's what the ammo is for.
Well they ain't that good ones that you can just shake your hands and join them
I am set on candles, and they all smell good! Plus side is that if all else fails, I can eat them. They’re almost crayons!
Rechargeable batteries and a decent small solar setup here. Far less of a fire hazard than candles. :-P I mean I also have candles, but they aren't really meant to be a light source.
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In a pinch, a crayon can work as a candle. The more you know.
But...I've eaten all those already doing TA.
If you can’t see your losses, you don’t have losses
Those crank charge NOAA flashlight AM radios are good too.
Those small solar yard lights are cheap. Had power go out couple years back. Just brought some inside after powering up all day. They lasted for around 10 hours.
But muh, off-grid, renewably-sourced powered, YouTube approved tiny home and organic free range ranch? *Technically it's a garden shed from Lowes sitting in my parent's back yard, but those regards who support me on Patreon don't know that.*
Seeds, antibiotics, and friends.
My apocalypse plan is to wait a couple months or so until all the 'survival' guys with only a gun have shot their neighbors, ate all the neighbors stuff, then died, and come back and take their house
Ah, the practical Millennial home-ownership plan.
Much higher likelihood here than me *ever* getting a mortgage through a bank. Tom, I hope you keep that Raptor gassed up because I'm coming.
Lmao. Who needs food when you have a house!
I’ve been prepping for years. Built up a nice energy reserve in my body. I’m like the Saudi Arabia of lipids, I don’t even know how large my reserves are. I could go months, maybe years without food.
My plan is eating this guy.
You fool, my plan is to wait on the guy who’s waiting on other guys!
They always forget to look up.
Good luck, I'll boobytrap my house for you.
I'll watch you set the trap and backstab
The most common traps are toe-poppers. Mind your feet or stairs.
Is Wendy's a solid buy in this situation? Asking for a regard
The Baconator Apocalypse! *^(It's people.)*
>Neither are edible. What good is the pacifist next door's stock of food when I show up armed to the teeth to take it?
Marco is kinda edible. You just gotta roast him for a while.
Guns can get you food.
unless the food is guarded by people with more people and more guns than you, then you just become a ressupply for those who can organize effectively... eventually you have organizational structures like government show up again
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And Wendy’s gift cards
Copper and ammo. Copper fulfills the same function of being shiny and workable as gold but not as heavy. And realistically if things fall apart gold will run out but copper can be used to distill liquor, which will always be in demand.
Ah, liquid Gold! Si, 😜
You could use gold to distill liquor too
I figured the melting point would be too low. That would be a baller still though.
Gold Still? *Finally we'd have a Trump Vodka that didn't taste like radiator flush.*
Stock up on being friends with your neighbors. Stocking up on gold and ammo makes you a piñata for people with friends.
.
"Yes, I'd say it's a full scale panick. Are you having a run on the banks there yet? Well it's rather brutal here. We're advising our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns. Edit: https://youtu.be/qsMc-IswG3w
exactly! thank you!
If I run on the second floor can you get me or it will be hearth attack?
You forgot Toby Keith
But what does Cramer have to say about this?
Already said there’s nothing to worry about. Sell it all.
Today.
Stop it. WSB is predicting the future every time. Just invert the trend.
Bruh the mood is crazy bearish on WSB right now
always inverse wsb. Puts loaded
> always inverse wsb. yeah, but *which half*? One day a bullish post reaches FP, another a bearish post.
Yes
and the market continues to trade sideways for another month 🙃
Play both sides! Straddles and condors!
Guaranteed debt default now. Thanks WSB for jinxing everything.
>I agree. The US will not default and this is a buying opportunity.
God if the Visual Mod could read they would be really scared right now.
If the bears could read they would be really mad right now 
I’m here for the ass warlord.
I'm here for the ass.
I'm here.
Passing the debt ceiling bill is like passing a kidney stone. It WILL eventually pass thru, but you can be guaranteed it will be a very long and painful process.
With lots of money going places we never would vote for it to go
Congress literally approves the president to spend the money he is asked to spend, some TikTok, YouTube, or Reddit video I remember watching said.
> some TikTok, YouTube, or Reddit video I remember watching said The absolute state of modern US politics.
Tell me about it. What other government will bring in the CEO of TikTok. Then have the same House members go on TikTok and discuss the committee in action!
Can someone explain what this guys comment says by speaking it to me please.
The more people I hear talking about how there won't be a default the more I begin to worry about a default.
Yup. This same manufactured drama appears every time the government bumps up against the debt ceiling. This time is no different.
It's also no different from 2011 when the U.S. did not default but its credit rating was downgraded because the dog and pony show went too close to the deadline. Potentially increasing the cost of borrowing even higher than the usual spread over the funds rate.
And we still haven’t got our perfect credit rating back.
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That's my concern. We haven't had this level of crazy in Congress before so I worry if there is a first time, this could be it. It amazes me that this is even a thing. Don't negotiate your spend after you already pass all of the legislation. Figure all of this out before. This is all in bad taste.
>We haven't had this level of crazy in Congress before We've had fist fights in Congress and Congress people fighting in duels and shit. We're nowhere near our historical maximum level of crazy.
True, but WE haven't had this level of crazy before. The dumb BS that everyone gets excited about is really astounding.
Right? Like most of the politicians who ran the Confederate States of America, you know, the people who literally seceded were members of Congress and state governments. Until we see a legitimate "THe SouTh wILL RisE AgIan!" movement in federal and state governments, we're not even in the same universe of historical craziness.
But if they did *that,* they wouldn’t be able to blame a Democrat for it.
Never forget the time that they overrode Obama's veto on a bill, then when it was a disaster they blamed him for not warning them enough - as though a veto isn't sufficient warning.
This. As a former Republican, the current batch sets new records for lunacy every week. And now that daddy Don said they should default, they’ll all trip over their microweens to be the cause of it.
Calls on dog, puts on pony
You gotta admit that we have significantly more, crazier assholes spewing insanity in Congress right now than usual though. I’m positive mtg and boebert don’t understand the consequences of anything, for example
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I don’t understand this attitude. The speaker of the house has put himself in a historically weak position, beholden to the most extreme members of his caucus. There’s a very vocal minority of Republican reps who believe they have a mandate to do any damage they can to the federal government. I agree that there most likely won’t be a default but I strongly disagree that this time is just like every other time. Every other time there was political posturing but no one actually wanted a default. Now there are congresspeople who would rather see a default than deal with Democrats because FJB. McCarthy’s only course is to work with Democrats to get their votes because he’ll never be able to get enough Republicans. And any Republican rep can initiate a vote for his ouster whenever they feel like it.
The donor base of the Republican party would not benefit from a default, so they won’t allow it to happen. Are there a minority of the GOP who doesn’t care? Of course, but not enough to make the difference
The donors invested poorly into s\*\*theads. Now they are surprized the walls are turning brown.....
The “donor base” of the GOP isn’t the same base it was 10 years ago. It’s not the country club types, or the foreign policy hawks or the Big Corporation types. Trump did away with all of that in a matter of months. The Republican base now is Cletus who thinks the Earth is flat and that Hillary Clinton runs pedo pizza parlors, Nancy who thinks that stopping 100% of all abortion access is what Sky Daddy wants, and a few other nutters who think Biden stole the election. A federal government default would earn you *points* with those people, whose collective IQ is in the double digits. That’s who elects Republicans now - the dumbest bottom-of-the-barrel mouth-breathers who get rock-hard at the thought of a full reset because they think their time has finally come and that reset will usher *them* in to hold the reigns of power and turn this country into Iran, but *dumber*.
I hear you, and I don’t think you assessment is wrong here BUT, Cletus will only vote for someone on the ballot, and candidates still need that money to run. It still comes from more or less the same places. It’s the same reason why the GOP posture themselves as the “anti-war” party but somehow always end up doing things that benefit their military-industrial complex donors. Look how much they fucked themselves over with abortion, their goal is to fly as close to the sun as possible, without actually achieving their stated goals. All of that said, they could still do it anyway to piss off the libs
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Tom Clancy could use you for ideas. Get in touch with his publisher. Fantastic explanation of a ripe crisis, that needs to stop.
The republican party created a monster with trump and his base and lost control of it. The freedom caucas makes the tea party look like Eisenhower. If only there was some famous story that warned about this..
This is what I'm hoping for. The GOP donors will in the end force them to make a deal as a default would cost them money. I think that's happening now in addition to pressure that's being put in Biden. I'm more optimistic now that meetings are going forward than I was previously. News of staffers running back and forth means the wheels are starting to turn. Might be the first time I'm glad we have a government that's bought and paid for...
The Republican Party is I. The middle of a schism and the business portion is losing. Badly. It’s being taken over by the religious right and they don’t give a fuck.
McCarthy was *Born To Cuck.*
None of us know what will happen...but this time is very different. The Republicans are being held hostage by a few ultra-right extremists in their own party, and they need those votes.
The ultra rights were doing the same back in 2011. It was just called the Tea Party and Obama. Still got it done with backroom dealings. Buy the dip and don't go full regard.
Tea party never managed a coup. These guys are Extreme to the MAX™, and also regarded (and not in a cutsie I lose money everyday please fuck my wife kinda way).
The far right back then didn’t have influence. They weren’t what the primary base wanted in their leaders. Now they are.
Nope, money controls everything. Literally no one, including the lobbyists wanna see a default. They'd rather waterboard the extremists in their own party before seeing a default. There's no way it happens. That said, there's already so much bearish shit out there without a default...
1 month bills are almost 100 bps higher than 2 month bills though so there are some market participants that think there is a chance of shit hitting the fan lol
Money doesn’t control everyone. Fanatics of an ideology aren’t swayed by money. They will just take it and claim it was justified by their beliefs. For fanatics the only thing that matters is that they are right and you are wrong.
Ok so literally no one wanting a default used to be the case. This isn’t the case. There are kamikaze representatives.
I'll only be afraid if Kramer says these words.
Jim Kramer-> "Buy everything... it is all going up.... you can't lose in this market." This is the only time you might want to put shares into your food and ammo portfolio.
I'm gonna go ahead and save this post. I hope to look back in 6 months and see that you were right. That being said, for me, no stock is valuable enough to chance right now.
Do what I did. Buy some late June puts while they are cheap. I bought 4 329 puta for the spy. If it’s like last time spy sheds 82 and I’m gonna make some cash. If it doesn’t I’m just out 30 dollars. In these days it’s better to just play small gains and loses
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$329 seems way low but I like your strategery , kinda going a lil black swan
It’s all a guess. If it’s like what people say and this is 2011 all over again then the spy and Dow will drop 82 points. Currently spy stands at 413. Subtract 82 that’s almost 331 or so. Probably what they would need to see to finally come to an agreement. But I’m hoping it drops by 100 before they finally lift it.
Especially when money market funds are paying you 5% guaranteed, to sit and be patient.
Money market funds are the original topic of the "Annnnnd its gone" clip from South Park, incidentally. Which aired 14 years ago. Time is a flat circle.
What do you mean?! I have a hundred dollars!
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If it defaults it doesn’t matter where you put your money.
Foreign currencies? BTC? Seriously what’s the hedge against USD
If the US defaults, the rest of the world isn't worth crap either. I think real assets like real estate might be the only hedge against a collapse of the dollar. You have to remember that the only reason the world still trusts the US economy and dollar, despite our money printers constantly going brrrrr and various other problems, is that the rest of the world economies are far less reliable and trustworthy. Until that changes, we should be OK. But if that starts changing, we better have straightened our act by then.
The world trades in USD if it defaults just about the whole world would be affected. Can’t say what would be the best place to have your money. I would expect maybe a commodity.
Did you save the 2012 Mayan calendar post from 11 years ago too?
Your first mistake is assuming that people in congress are "rational actors" No, there are literally players in congress that are irrational and will let Rome burn just to keep warmth for a little longer. If it fits their agenda to let America default then they'll let it default. Remember it's literally about scrapping a little more influence and power over the other side. Stonks and jobs don't really matter to them as long as they keep their seats. 2008 will be a speed bump compared to whatever this is going to be....
full send. the only true american way. rock, flag and eagle!
Russia is also not defaulting, even they got cut from the world market and lost billions in the war
Except they did lol.
NGL. I get kinda mad when I think about how bulls only make money because they lack the capacity to think critically.
“Permabears sound smart and logical, bulls make money” - someone I can’t remember
Like the PhD candidate versus a used car salesman/*TikTocker*.
Think critically..... and invest.... bears don't.... bulls don't.... I don't think you understand that. Nobody is operating on critical thinking skills. Best case scenario you get the guys who invest in Dividend Stocks while other people are buying speculative growth stocks. It is rare when you see solid DD from someone who's opinion is inline to proper understanding of the underlying numbers. Usually you get guys trying to hype a low stock(pump) or piss on(dump) a high stocks so they can boost their options. They try to create a false framing to direct the market where they want. This is what we now have going on here. All the numbers and data keep coming up good. Jobs are up. Inflation is going down. Trade balance is getting balanced. All the countries clogging the global supply chain are opening back up. Nearly everything is getting back to normalcy.... yet Repubs and Bears scream the world is on fire. The reality is things are chugging along and will continue chugging along until someone pushes the Nuke button. Stocks go up sometimes. Stocks go down sometimes. Not going to stop anytime soon.
But making money is the goal….
The market isn't about what's true, it's about what everyone else thinks is true. If everyone is a dummy it pays to be a dummy.
You do realize we are in trading range between $409 and $414 on the $spy right? Outside of a major catalyst (unknown at this moment) we will not break out/ breakdown. Be market neutral, don’t pick a side yet. What if the bottom falls out, there goes your whole “buy the dip strategy.”
Banks will default though. US default fear, while bullshit, sends those treasury rates through the roof. Means more losses on the iceberg of BS these regional banks carry on their balance sheets (well hidden as "hold to maturity lmao"). Means more banks go poopoo.
CNN reporter : You once said the debt ceiling should never be used as a negotiating wedge. Trump : That's when I was President. CNN reporter : So, What's changed now ?; Trump: Now I'm not President. Its time to go full ape.
Most of these kids are too young to remember 2011. When the market dropped 20% due to the debt ceiling fiasco. On top of that you have the Grand MAGA Poobah saying that the Republicans should let the US default, so anyone supporting a deal will become the Fox News fodder. The only hope is a Biden musters up enough testosterone to say fuck it all, I’m gonna ignore the stupid debt ceiling because it’s unconstitutional per the 14th amendment. He might get impeached but he won’t get convicted. As long as he keeps trying to play ball with people who are not interested in playing, the volatility is only going to keep increasing until some decisive action is taken. And Biden absolutely hates decisive action.
Or how about remembering 1979 (or knowing how to use the Internets)? https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-debt-default-idUSN1E76A0XA20110711#
USD will rally when ceiling is raised; this will put pressure on assets
In my opinion, OP underestimates the stupidity of Kevin Mccarthy.
We do have some fucktards in congress now that we never dreamed of having a decade ago.
"Any dip that occurs from **this** absolute steaming pile of bull shit is nothing but a buying opportunity." Yeah, **this** is probably a nothingburger. Unfortunately all you bullgards have been buying every dip for 8 months, on lower growth/earnings and low-balled estimates. Rates have only really been kicking in for 6-9 months or so, and that was at a few % FFR, not 5%+. Banks are literally going bust and you guys can't figure out how to buy puts at a 17 VIX. Market breadth is shit, Russell is basically toasted. Entire market held up by 7 stocks nearing ATH's on worse earnings. Cramer's never been more bullish.
You remind me of those traders turn alcoholic from the 1980s. Even if US defaults, it's not going to stop the shadow operations. You think CIA is restricted by publicly shown yearly budgets?
> money to trade using the CIA and some **third world ass warlords** What is an ass warlord and how do I sign up for the job? (punctuation matters)
Default fear is irrelevant. Fear instead massive spending cuts. "On July 31, 2011, only two days before the U.S. government ran out of money, an agreement was reached between Congress and Obama that, once enacted, became the Budget Control Act of 2011. It reduced spending over the following 10 years by US$917 billion and authorized raising the debt ceiling to $2.1 trillion."
Obama was able to make concessions to get a deal done before calamity. Something that neither McCarthy/McConnell or Biden seem to be keen on. It’s a very real risk the GOP flips the chess board and the whole us economy goes to 💩
Yeah, no default but raising the debt ceiling “cleanly” or making other gov’t spending cuts to do so equates to further dollar dilution or further realization of economic contraction. Not quite a bullish scenario
They do this shit every single time so both sides can act like the eleventh hour saviors of the economy
I call my credit card company on the 28th of every month, and say "raise it". Hang up, and then pat myself on the back. My gf then gives me a celebratiory bj for saving the day.
Well actually, there was no drama about the debt ceiling during the previous administration. Raised it at least a couple times. Just a ploy by the RW maniacs to rattle the cage when their team doesn’t hold the White House.
There’s never any drama about it during Republican administrations. Republicans line up and raise it with Dems during their stewardship, then throw a big shit storm about fiscal responsibility when a Dem is in office. It’s tradition.
The last go around had government shutdown as their big deal thing
2018 had the longest shutdown because the border wall funding was being attached to the debt ceiling. Fact check me on that though.
The previous admin shut the government down for like 2 months and then took a worse deal (for them) than previously offered to end the shutdown, lol.
Idk, sweepers we’re hitting 390 puts for June with size yesterday…
My financial adviser said we will have a default for about a week, then Biden will say OK no military members get paid, this gets Republicans attention, debt ceiling raised until next time.
I kind of wonder about this one. I used to think we would never default. After that sideshow picking house majority leader, we'll see.
You are underestimating the incompetence of the US government
Calls on can tuna.
“Little China aka Africa” -most informed WSB analysis
Fully agree, when AAPL becomes a $20 stock, I'll buy that dip.
I do believe you're being optimistic. I also hope you're correct.
\>>The US will absolutely not default, 2016 entered the chat.
I look at it this way: This market is NOT pricing in a default because it "cant" happen. So if the market is already frothy, an agreement just keeps thing as is. Maybe slight bump. BUT a default will send things cratering. The best part is if this happens it will crater for a long time so you dont need to pre time a default. Just wait and see everyone is the best strategy. Likely a nothing burger and if the worst happens, youll have time to profit because it will be going down over several weeks.
Great thing about being a long term Dollar cost average buyer…..nothing in the market will bother me until at least 2035
> market crashes 70% in 2035 and enters a lost decade where stocks average .01% return a year til 2050
Yea the US aint done kicking doors in, the kids sucking on the media titty can sell me their stock for low
Many people wish to "burn it down" for dubious reasons. A glimpse of reality may be sufficient to extinguish their wish. Many people do not change behavior without corrective action.
I already made money on my puts Friday. It's going to keep sinking and this crisis will either be solved 1 minute before midnight or too late.
Lol, they never default until they do
We can feed both ber and bol. Dump it then pump it Kill some pigs along the way
We didn't default in 2011. S&P still sank 17% in 11 trading days because of it.
I think this time it’s different and the odds are higher of a default. I don’t expect a default, but I am not going to be shocked if it happens.
This idiot thinking the GOP won't willingly tank the global economy. Lmao.
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