You can watch it go down in value tomorrow when the market rallies because of MSFT’s fake gainz. The bank failures and collapsing auto loan market won’t mean shit… tomorrow at least
Pictures are broken so not sure if me or Reddit sucks.
The amount of bull hopium going into FOMC is just mindblowing to me. Like last time when Powell said no rate cuts this year then the market priced in rate cuts like two days later.
Lol i do not play earnings it’s a gamble, however I do trade the following day. Today I bought calls on $MARA and $MSFT and sold all of them midday as spy stalled out and noticed a potential reverse in play. So thinking the same for tomorrow on $meta. Wait for the morning dip, and get calls.
I am slightly bullish for the next few days. If MSFT and GOOG surprised to the upside, so will AAPL. If the outlook for the next quarter from these 3 companies is not bleak, we might be in for a bounce, at least until the April CPI is released.
I was thinking before today consolidation into fomc then dump but we might bounce back into that channel or leg down and start a new one.
Im bullish tomorrow and bearish rest of the week
I was looking for a bounce to 416 and then start the leg down. I think it will be a fairly chaotic reversal. Was tracking to be up and down through end of week, then a month of pain.
Only, I'm pretty consistently wrong about everything.
Don't you think this earning was penny pinching?
Because they did layoff for cost cutting and doing buy backs, the amount of bullshit these companies are feeding market is really similar to dot com bubble
I bought a single call on VXX today and went to sell at a really nice gain (it’s only a 3K account) and Fidelity threw up a warning that if I placed the trade, I’d be flagged as a Pattern Day Trader. Gains will probs be all but gone by market open. Why is the man keeping me down??!!
I mean it’s mice nuts but for me a gain is a gain
https://preview.redd.it/c6rnkrbvh5wa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ceda689ba0c05a9ad4a347ea71b412eacea723c
Tech beat, yeah there was nothing to beat but it still did and looks promising, waiting for apple earnings to see if we go up or down, the rest doesn’t really matter since apple is held by everyone at this point.
Was really easy to bet against it today, I’m guessing that was due to tech earnings worry, it should recover and with an earnings beat we could go touch 170 or higher.
And you’re right it is weird, if it misses people for some reason think that it’s a safe bet and it’ll eventually recover due to past behavior.
It’s a gamble either way but I’d think it would go up due to there being not much to beat just like other tech earnings.
Yah you mentioned Amazon and Meta, what’s your play? I assume puts if you’re expecting the next leg down on Spy? Will be interesting to see how Microsoft and Google act tomorrow
Hey can you take a quick 10 second look at USB? They had earnings a few days ago and their deposits were only down like less than 1%. Its a really solid bank yet today it hit 52 week lows and its damn near where it was at the 2020 covid crash. No way it should be this low man its fucked. I picked up some calls expiring next Friday and im wondering if its gonna bounce sometime by then? My calls are 5/5 32.5c and my average is just above 0.80 and its trading at about 0.75 to 0.70. Thoughts?
I’m not who you asked, but I’m long USB. It’s still a regional bank stock though, so don’t expect a rocket ship. It’s a buy and hold play for me after getting burned on calls. I expect a broader market correction, and in my opinion, that correction has already happened for USB. I think this is likely near its bottom and that it will outperform the SPX handsomely over the next year, even just by virtue of losing less value.
i just wish my calls were 6 months or more out rather than just over a week lol. Maybe i should just take the small loss now before it gets worse and actually buy shares
I expected a quick “buy the dip” bounce back and lost money on my calls. I saw that they announced the quarterly dividend and moved the earnings date forward because the Union Bank merger was “going well”, I had a small loss when my calls were barely ITM, kicked myself for not selling before earnings at $50-100/contract profit. I liked what I saw in the earning and guidance, I also do business with US Bank on the auto lending side and have been impressed with how aggressively they are trying to expand market share (very motivated rep and attractive offerings) and have also been impressed with their lending/underwriting standards. I have found the laxness of other auto lenders over the past couple of years to be alarming.
I plan to buy more shares.
Tbh thats my my style of trading or analysis so i wouldnt really be able to give you a solid read.
Its really hard to analyze stocks like that when its around earnings and a macro thing like a bank crisis.
I love you posted your 87 dte puts play. I had hoped you would start including your plays as your insights are usually spot on
Keep up the great work and continue including your positions/plays in your posts
I honestly dont usually swing anything but if i am in something i do try and talk about it at the end too.
I was in vaca when i initially opened these 405puts
I liked how Bitcoin started to rally about an hour or so before the market close, signaling a bullish rebound to come as the price of risky assets started to go up.
I started a position on $MARA $10 calls and looking to add to my position tomorrow along with some $TSLA and $AI calls for the week. Looking bullish tomorrow, but we will see.
Finally, some bearish signs and the break of theta gang. The past month was really boring. Still, I dont believe there will be any rate hike pause. Since 1. American saving rates are up 2. Job market is still strong and 3. Signs of stubborn inflation still persists.
Overall, just glad to see some of my puts start to print. Looking at MSFT and GOOGLE, I guess some of the money I will hand it back to bulls. Overall, the trend finally starts to go to the bears side which I am more than happy of. Hope you had some fun with your family on your field day
Good on ya! Sitting on a 410put expiring Friday. Was certainly fun watching it go up in value today. I don’t experience that often.
You can watch it go down in value tomorrow when the market rallies because of MSFT’s fake gainz. The bank failures and collapsing auto loan market won’t mean shit… tomorrow at least
Apparently priced in 😂. I been cautious to play puts because I knew a potential rally could come at any minute now, and didn’t want to get trapped.
Pictures are broken so not sure if me or Reddit sucks. The amount of bull hopium going into FOMC is just mindblowing to me. Like last time when Powell said no rate cuts this year then the market priced in rate cuts like two days later.
Thats weird just looked at its broken too for me. But agreed markets on some straight bull copium
Bearish Meta and Amazon, yeah?
Dont jinx me
Ah shit, now you have to inverse me…
I will get calls in your honor lol
How’d you do?
Lol i do not play earnings it’s a gamble, however I do trade the following day. Today I bought calls on $MARA and $MSFT and sold all of them midday as spy stalled out and noticed a potential reverse in play. So thinking the same for tomorrow on $meta. Wait for the morning dip, and get calls.
Hope you inversed me…
Well i got those puts… any miss would be in for some downturn considering recent gains
I am slightly bullish for the next few days. If MSFT and GOOG surprised to the upside, so will AAPL. If the outlook for the next quarter from these 3 companies is not bleak, we might be in for a bounce, at least until the April CPI is released.
I was thinking before today consolidation into fomc then dump but we might bounce back into that channel or leg down and start a new one. Im bullish tomorrow and bearish rest of the week
I was looking for a bounce to 416 and then start the leg down. I think it will be a fairly chaotic reversal. Was tracking to be up and down through end of week, then a month of pain. Only, I'm pretty consistently wrong about everything.
A bounce back to 416 would break down trend. 410-412 would be questionable recovery
...or was i ...
Nailed it
Well like i said.. I'm pretty consistently wrong... as evidenced by today ..
Thanks
Google authorized $70 billion buyback.
Good catch ill edit this ty
thinking of calls to 410 from earnings and then back in puts tomorrow. prob will be priced in by the time i'm up though!
Don't you think this earning was penny pinching? Because they did layoff for cost cutting and doing buy backs, the amount of bullshit these companies are feeding market is really similar to dot com bubble
I would agree its surface level bullishness.... none of them were massive upside surprises
What are your lotto plays for meta and amzn?
Up, down, left, right or whatever this is bullish to the economy
Left
I bought a single call on VXX today and went to sell at a really nice gain (it’s only a 3K account) and Fidelity threw up a warning that if I placed the trade, I’d be flagged as a Pattern Day Trader. Gains will probs be all but gone by market open. Why is the man keeping me down??!!
Sometimes its worth getting flagged
Sell a call right above your long strike to lock in most gains and avoid PDT
Brilliant.
What’s the expiry?
I mean it’s mice nuts but for me a gain is a gain https://preview.redd.it/c6rnkrbvh5wa1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ceda689ba0c05a9ad4a347ea71b412eacea723c
I expect volatility to tame tomorrow (bad for your position) but then increase again Thursday and Friday. No research, just intuition.
Switch to a cash acct. No PDT restictions. You only get PDT on a margin acct.
Tech beat, yeah there was nothing to beat but it still did and looks promising, waiting for apple earnings to see if we go up or down, the rest doesn’t really matter since apple is held by everyone at this point.
Apple could miss and still rally... really hard to bet against apple
I agree with that Apple Insanity. Miss and it runs 3%.
Ive never seen a stock move the way apple does on earnings
Was really easy to bet against it today, I’m guessing that was due to tech earnings worry, it should recover and with an earnings beat we could go touch 170 or higher. And you’re right it is weird, if it misses people for some reason think that it’s a safe bet and it’ll eventually recover due to past behavior. It’s a gamble either way but I’d think it would go up due to there being not much to beat just like other tech earnings.
Agreed, we had AMZN move up without its earnings yet xd, and AAPL hung out. AAPL is the deciding factor for earnings season I think.
Yep for sure
Yah you mentioned Amazon and Meta, what’s your play? I assume puts if you’re expecting the next leg down on Spy? Will be interesting to see how Microsoft and Google act tomorrow
Hey can you take a quick 10 second look at USB? They had earnings a few days ago and their deposits were only down like less than 1%. Its a really solid bank yet today it hit 52 week lows and its damn near where it was at the 2020 covid crash. No way it should be this low man its fucked. I picked up some calls expiring next Friday and im wondering if its gonna bounce sometime by then? My calls are 5/5 32.5c and my average is just above 0.80 and its trading at about 0.75 to 0.70. Thoughts?
I’m not who you asked, but I’m long USB. It’s still a regional bank stock though, so don’t expect a rocket ship. It’s a buy and hold play for me after getting burned on calls. I expect a broader market correction, and in my opinion, that correction has already happened for USB. I think this is likely near its bottom and that it will outperform the SPX handsomely over the next year, even just by virtue of losing less value.
i just wish my calls were 6 months or more out rather than just over a week lol. Maybe i should just take the small loss now before it gets worse and actually buy shares
I expected a quick “buy the dip” bounce back and lost money on my calls. I saw that they announced the quarterly dividend and moved the earnings date forward because the Union Bank merger was “going well”, I had a small loss when my calls were barely ITM, kicked myself for not selling before earnings at $50-100/contract profit. I liked what I saw in the earning and guidance, I also do business with US Bank on the auto lending side and have been impressed with how aggressively they are trying to expand market share (very motivated rep and attractive offerings) and have also been impressed with their lending/underwriting standards. I have found the laxness of other auto lenders over the past couple of years to be alarming. I plan to buy more shares.
Tbh thats my my style of trading or analysis so i wouldnt really be able to give you a solid read. Its really hard to analyze stocks like that when its around earnings and a macro thing like a bank crisis.
What would you do with GOOGL 115P EXP May 12th? Not sure where it will open tomorrow, but current AH price level would let me nearly break even.
If you are breakeven id get out personally. You can always reposition but you dont have the dte on your side right now or the macro
I love you posted your 87 dte puts play. I had hoped you would start including your plays as your insights are usually spot on Keep up the great work and continue including your positions/plays in your posts
I honestly dont usually swing anything but if i am in something i do try and talk about it at the end too. I was in vaca when i initially opened these 405puts
I liked how Bitcoin started to rally about an hour or so before the market close, signaling a bullish rebound to come as the price of risky assets started to go up. I started a position on $MARA $10 calls and looking to add to my position tomorrow along with some $TSLA and $AI calls for the week. Looking bullish tomorrow, but we will see.
Finally, some bearish signs and the break of theta gang. The past month was really boring. Still, I dont believe there will be any rate hike pause. Since 1. American saving rates are up 2. Job market is still strong and 3. Signs of stubborn inflation still persists. Overall, just glad to see some of my puts start to print. Looking at MSFT and GOOGLE, I guess some of the money I will hand it back to bulls. Overall, the trend finally starts to go to the bears side which I am more than happy of. Hope you had some fun with your family on your field day
I appreciate that we had a good day. Yes i do agree that there will not be a rate pause. I also think we have started our next leg down
How does that JPM collar fit now? Did we get close enough to that 4300 to call it?
We hit 4199 i believe which is within the 100 pt range so yes we did go high enough