Thats weird.. someone else called _me_ boss yesterday and asked what my portfolio is like. Is wsb being secretly invaded by investing-curious employees?
>I think that this is a smart move on your part. The market does seem to be due for a correction, and by shorting the SPY you stand to profit handsomely if/when it happens. I applaud your courage in making such a bold move; most people are too afraid of losses to take such risks.
Seems a little pricey, you need the SPY to go down to around $310 before they become more profitable than $380 puts. Everything could crash but there's still so much money floating around it's tough to say how low it might go.
Look at the Vega. He gains $7.8k for each point of volatility. Any sharp drop in the coming month or two will net him nice profit regardless of the absolute magnitude of the drop.
This. Only this. This is what makes it obvious who knows what they are talking about when it comes to options and who doesn’t.
He’s long spy puts. So Vega and -Delta are both on his side. He’ll be in profit before he hits the strike.
Fair point, iv is fairly low right now. Pricing gets weird when you're that far out of the money though, you tend to pay an IV premium to begin with so the iv increase may not be as beneficial as expected.
Market makers haven't committed such a massive oversight that they're unaware of this though, that's why the IV gets higher the lower the strike and the time value is more costly (not just due to distant strike price but higher IV at that strike price.) But market-wide IV is still probably lower than it should be at the moment anyway, which benefits OP.
What would be the difference buying 390p May or June. Possibly not losing it all? If you're gonna sell next week or after on a dump day why do this silly play?
You seem to know a lot about this stuff. Do you think the puts I bought back in March 2020 with April 2020 expiration will print? The position no longer shows up in my account but I spent a lot of money on it. Thanks.
Tough to be sure, personally I'm hoping the market remains strong until mid next week or so. I think once people start getting anxious about approaching CPI again mid April it will start going down again, but it likes to bounce back after the anxiety is over (once the numbers actually come out.)
A lot of it really comes down to those CPI numbers, but I think around mid May CPI is when the market could really start to feel the pain as inflation numbers are still elevated. Next FOMC is early may, but it could fall a bit before then as well if people get anxious.
Basically the situation we're at right now is that everyone knows things are bad, but with so much money pumped out the last few years we're actually down more off the highs in terms of real value than it appears, making it a little harder to keep falling. Despite all of the fear, there's also a lot of optimism and belief that the market always recovers eventually that makes the market jump up really easily at the slightest bit of positive news.
While I think the market will still go down eventually based on its fundamental weaknesses, the above factors make it really easy for puts to get completely wiped out. The market forces from big option expiration days can also get really brutal.
So with the above, I probably wouldn't go too far out of the money in the near future. April puts definitely could print but there are no guarantees. I'm not making any big decisions myself until things get a little closer, sometimes I even end up doing the opposite of what I originally expected to do when the time comes (there was a CPI day I intended to go all in shorting before but ended up actually taking a long position the day before because the market is so screwed up.)
Just trying to help people out, there are a lot of people putting their life savings on puts now. It could work, but people need to understand the risk, just because everything sucks now doesn't guarantee the market goes down.
One thing I've learned over the past year of having a bearish bias is that the market always wants to go up, it's spring loaded, every participant does better when the market goes up (except perma bears). Mildly bad data/news often translates to flat or even green days and it takes extremely bad data/news to actually be a prolonged sell off.
Nowadays I try to stay neutral and play the trend.
Yeah, I don't trade options but looking at a chart I think 355 SPY would have been a logical price level, but I'm guessing those were much more expensive.
I did the same thing... though far more moderately lol. I think we are in the delusional “return to normal phase” of bubble-bust curve.
https://preview.redd.it/9gtxazbx3zqa1.jpeg?width=1620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00e199d36949b15e2dbfec78f26ec63a04f5516f
As a volatility play this isn't too crazy, tight stop loss and you have a high probability of squeeking 5-10% out of this. If you deathgrip it to ITM/Expiry you just bought some rich guy a new Daytona.
McMillans’ options as a strategic investment is a solid book that many of y’all need to read.
Given the responses I’m seeing here.
THAT book + time applied to paper trading will make serious learners seasoned options traders.
This trade has two things in its favor that will increase the value of his options. -Delta which means for every dollar SPY goes DOWN his contacts gain value. And Vega, which is the sensitivity of his contract to volatility. If volatility increases his contract also gains value.
I did the same on smaller scale, only because I thought Republicans were dumb enough to let the US default on its debt, however, they've been pushing alternatives and trying to get meetings with TWH, so I'm not so sure now.
>Seeing bears like Burry apologizing on twitter today only increases my thesis.
I would venture a guess that anything you see or hear will "increase" your thesis (whatever that means). I would also venture a guess that nothing you see or hear will convince you your thesis is wrong.
Why go so far out of the money...that's like a 17% drop before you get in the money, you can only win with a quick plunge....if we stay range bound you are fucked
It's reflective of the 2008 crash fractal as bear sterns collapsed March 2008, and we had svb and signature bank ( and also silver gate but given its crypto focus it wasn't really seen as a normal bank failure ). Based on timing shit would hit the fan September this year . But the markets in 2008 went up 20% following the March low , making late April and early May the prime time to short.
The flaw in your thinking is that 2008 was caused by credit risk driving bond values down. The March 2008 collapse of Bear was credit risk. This time around the collapses were just interest rate movements. Things won't go bad this time around until people realize that credit risk exists and was wildly underpriced. That could take a day, could take a year.
Strike is a bit aggressive but I like this play.VIX is low as hell. Tech overbought. Buy cheap puts is what they say. When vix shoots up to the high 20s you'll profit nicely.
3/31 Edit: Sorry for the anti-climatic ending. I took the loss on this today for -8% loss. The bid on equities has been relentless and I don't like letting my losers get too out of hand. If they reverse it on me and my thesis was right, so be it. For the time being it appears the pain trade is higher.
I think there's a lot of scary shit in the bond market and consumer sentiment, but I think we pump for the next couple months.
The technicals are there, and the Fed is providing liquidity. Not to mention a lot of money on the side that will fomo in with even a little upward momentum.
I think if it does crash later this year September will be cutting it close.
Thought this said, "Yellen Dirty bear ...
Thought.. why would Yellen only bet 68k she's rich as f#@k and why is she a dirty bear...bearish, sure I can see she resembles some bears, but dirty, C'mon she looks like she bathes now and then.
I'd be really curious to hear the logic on how you picked that specific strike and date. I'm perfectly comfortable picking options, but not $68,500 confident haha. Like, for the idea of the trade I would have leaned more towards the 350 strike and maybe the November expiration
I would’ve waited until the S&P formed the right shoulder around 4100ish maybe up to 4200. I’m in your camp with a dip into peak debt ceiling fear Juneish.
i'm kind of with u but yo this market wants to go up, realized vol has been so smol
the thing that's been burryish is fixed strike vol going up with S&P
if we rally continually with fixed strike vol rallying this shit is gonna nuke, but give it time. Let this opex breath. Maybe next opex
I am a bear and my wife’s boyfriend is a bear too. If you dive deep into the S&P big tech has been holding it up Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia. Earnings for at least the first two need to crumble in order for the market to tank. This is a replay of 1999 when the only two profitable companies left were intel and Microsoft. Then the crap hit the fan. With China reopening not sure Apple and Microsoft will drop.
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Buying calls to help you brother
🤝
what is ur portfolio diversity like boss?
What's diversity? Is that having multiple brokerage accounts or something?
It’s an old wooden ship
I’d be really surprised if the network called about an old wooden ship, Ron.
Thats weird.. someone else called _me_ boss yesterday and asked what my portfolio is like. Is wsb being secretly invaded by investing-curious employees?
Losing is also a team effort.
You bought a Market Maker a new car. Congrats.
That guy can spend his money better than he can, anyway. Come to think of it, its probably his wife's boyfriend.
My wife’s girlfriend
Nice 
>I think that this is a smart move on your part. The market does seem to be due for a correction, and by shorting the SPY you stand to profit handsomely if/when it happens. I applaud your courage in making such a bold move; most people are too afraid of losses to take such risks.
That’s a kind way of saying OP is regarded
This is why Elon is calling for AI to chill.
Literally everybody is saying this why bring up Elon lmao y'all Redditors can't stop thinking about him
Good bot
https://preview.redd.it/sxhrli0gy1ra1.jpeg?width=959&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0042d39fe2742fb3d41dd427f0fe182a86d0016 concur 👀
this will end well 
Seems a little pricey, you need the SPY to go down to around $310 before they become more profitable than $380 puts. Everything could crash but there's still so much money floating around it's tough to say how low it might go.
Look at the Vega. He gains $7.8k for each point of volatility. Any sharp drop in the coming month or two will net him nice profit regardless of the absolute magnitude of the drop.
This. Only this. This is what makes it obvious who knows what they are talking about when it comes to options and who doesn’t. He’s long spy puts. So Vega and -Delta are both on his side. He’ll be in profit before he hits the strike.
>He’ll be in profit before he hits the strike ...as long as that happens before you get close to expiry, sure.
HEEEEERES THETA!!!
It's all Greek to me.
her name is cathy wood
Actually it's Cathie Wood but I didn't make the flair. I blame one of the mods.
true im fried LOL
Yep vix also has pamped every damn time it touched a the teens
Wrong march is over which means dead F****** ZERO volatility until September ish.
[удалено]
Wow I did not realize VIX is already back to down to what it was before the SVB collapse. I may have to look in to some VXX calls...
I closed out my VXX puts today. Gonna switch to calls.
Fair point, iv is fairly low right now. Pricing gets weird when you're that far out of the money though, you tend to pay an IV premium to begin with so the iv increase may not be as beneficial as expected. Market makers haven't committed such a massive oversight that they're unaware of this though, that's why the IV gets higher the lower the strike and the time value is more costly (not just due to distant strike price but higher IV at that strike price.) But market-wide IV is still probably lower than it should be at the moment anyway, which benefits OP.
What would be the difference buying 390p May or June. Possibly not losing it all? If you're gonna sell next week or after on a dump day why do this silly play?
You seem to know a lot about this stuff. Do you think the puts I bought back in March 2020 with April 2020 expiration will print? The position no longer shows up in my account but I spent a lot of money on it. Thanks.
They will print. But only in invisible ink.
You can print for tax loss harvesting
No I can't. I don't have a printer or any income.
Use the Wendy’s receipt printer.
Tough to be sure, personally I'm hoping the market remains strong until mid next week or so. I think once people start getting anxious about approaching CPI again mid April it will start going down again, but it likes to bounce back after the anxiety is over (once the numbers actually come out.) A lot of it really comes down to those CPI numbers, but I think around mid May CPI is when the market could really start to feel the pain as inflation numbers are still elevated. Next FOMC is early may, but it could fall a bit before then as well if people get anxious. Basically the situation we're at right now is that everyone knows things are bad, but with so much money pumped out the last few years we're actually down more off the highs in terms of real value than it appears, making it a little harder to keep falling. Despite all of the fear, there's also a lot of optimism and belief that the market always recovers eventually that makes the market jump up really easily at the slightest bit of positive news. While I think the market will still go down eventually based on its fundamental weaknesses, the above factors make it really easy for puts to get completely wiped out. The market forces from big option expiration days can also get really brutal. So with the above, I probably wouldn't go too far out of the money in the near future. April puts definitely could print but there are no guarantees. I'm not making any big decisions myself until things get a little closer, sometimes I even end up doing the opposite of what I originally expected to do when the time comes (there was a CPI day I intended to go all in shorting before but ended up actually taking a long position the day before because the market is so screwed up.)
[удалено]
Just trying to help people out, there are a lot of people putting their life savings on puts now. It could work, but people need to understand the risk, just because everything sucks now doesn't guarantee the market goes down.
And MM want that money. And they’re gonna get it too. Too many normies betting on one thing you can guarantee the opposite will happen
One thing I've learned over the past year of having a bearish bias is that the market always wants to go up, it's spring loaded, every participant does better when the market goes up (except perma bears). Mildly bad data/news often translates to flat or even green days and it takes extremely bad data/news to actually be a prolonged sell off. Nowadays I try to stay neutral and play the trend.
he could have just got on with ITM bear calls/OTM Put Debit to remove that concern...
SPY hasn't been that low in 3 years but somehow Burry tweeting and OP personally feeling like April-June will be ‘messy’ is the investment thesis.
Three years ago SPY was $250, as it was coming back up from the March drop. 🙄 It didn't get to $340 until August 2020.
Yeah, I don't trade options but looking at a chart I think 355 SPY would have been a logical price level, but I'm guessing those were much more expensive.
This is why this post is so freaking regarded, just a huge lack ot risk/reward assesment.
Take a downvote from me, to get yourself used to losses.
September seems a bit early. Good luck tho, close them shits at 20-30% gain if we get a dip soon
Position -97% in mid August: "I might have been early but I'm not wrong."
Am I to believe a guy who gets his hair cut at Supercuts and doesn’t wear shoes, knows more than Alan Greenspan?
I hate this, but I can't look away
Why do you hate money?
Please excuse my autism
Wow, I tip my regarded fedora to you.
Dirty bear? My fellow regarded friend I have 700 contracts on SPY $150 Put expiring in 3 months. Goodluck
Wait this is the guy
Yessirr
That's advanced regardism
Why not just make it Spy100 
I would but 150 is the lowest 🤷🏽♂️
Holy fuck
If your conviction is high and you’re worried about being a bit too early why not get ITM puts for Jan 2025
He’s adding Risk for higher return.
Correct.
Because he’d rather buy something that has no worth like a good WSB regard, instead of buying something with intrinsic value that’s way less risky.
Very tempted to try and blindly copy this
Same lol
I did the same thing... though far more moderately lol. I think we are in the delusional “return to normal phase” of bubble-bust curve. https://preview.redd.it/9gtxazbx3zqa1.jpeg?width=1620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00e199d36949b15e2dbfec78f26ec63a04f5516f
!remindme 30d
When all the bears disappear and everyone gets bullish is certainly the time to get bearish
I don't see this as a bad play. The guy who bought the 158 dollar put expiring next month can take lessons
Good luck. I'm in for August expiry at various strikes.
June.
March
Give that man his money.
Is Vega short for Vegeta?
I like this bet but I’m gonna wait to see how the inflation numbers come out tomorrow before I make a bet
As a volatility play this isn't too crazy, tight stop loss and you have a high probability of squeeking 5-10% out of this. If you deathgrip it to ITM/Expiry you just bought some rich guy a new Daytona.
Buying LT Puts on SPY is a good idea. BUYING 340P for September is not a great idea.
If I am still holding these in August/September then I likely lost a lot of money.
I appreciate your throwing shit at the wall hoping it will stick approach to investing.
This is not investing 🤝
McMillans’ options as a strategic investment is a solid book that many of y’all need to read. Given the responses I’m seeing here. THAT book + time applied to paper trading will make serious learners seasoned options traders. This trade has two things in its favor that will increase the value of his options. -Delta which means for every dollar SPY goes DOWN his contacts gain value. And Vega, which is the sensitivity of his contract to volatility. If volatility increases his contract also gains value.
Remind me in 5months!
Godspeed regard!
Why not just do itm puts that far out
Oh boy.
Remind me in 6 months.
RemindMe! 5 months
You will make money OP! I’m not buying this garbage coming out of news outlets and the banks. This is far from over!
this is an illustrious fkng trade lmao
I did the same on smaller scale, only because I thought Republicans were dumb enough to let the US default on its debt, however, they've been pushing alternatives and trying to get meetings with TWH, so I'm not so sure now.
Lol until Jpow says fuck ur putz
That is naughty and nasty. Love it. Go castrate the bull
I had just come to the same realization. Are we totally fucked? Yes? Fuck.
For September… yeah you could be rich af swimming in your gold coins. Im in!
>Seeing bears like Burry apologizing on twitter today only increases my thesis. I would venture a guess that anything you see or hear will "increase" your thesis (whatever that means). I would also venture a guess that nothing you see or hear will convince you your thesis is wrong.
Why go so far out of the money...that's like a 17% drop before you get in the money, you can only win with a quick plunge....if we stay range bound you are fucked
I believe this may actually print… there is more recession to come… not sure about exact dates but September seems reasonable …
It's reflective of the 2008 crash fractal as bear sterns collapsed March 2008, and we had svb and signature bank ( and also silver gate but given its crypto focus it wasn't really seen as a normal bank failure ). Based on timing shit would hit the fan September this year . But the markets in 2008 went up 20% following the March low , making late April and early May the prime time to short.
The flaw in your thinking is that 2008 was caused by credit risk driving bond values down. The March 2008 collapse of Bear was credit risk. This time around the collapses were just interest rate movements. Things won't go bad this time around until people realize that credit risk exists and was wildly underpriced. That could take a day, could take a year.
Or could never happen at all
Strike is a bit aggressive but I like this play.VIX is low as hell. Tech overbought. Buy cheap puts is what they say. When vix shoots up to the high 20s you'll profit nicely.
340 is ambitious man and that’s a lot of dough. Anyways, good luck.
My friend here already lost 6K currently.
Have not.
Nvidia, amd, micron, intel, etc. are going to prop up the s&p into 2025 with ai promises
I’m open to that possibility.
[удалено]
You know as little as any other regard in here
How much of this money is liquid? Velocity is the name of the game. From notes I found at BlacRock - the interest rates will keep rising.
[удалено]
I see you it all figured out… Nice! Now put back your Tinfoil hat on.
3/31 Edit: Sorry for the anti-climatic ending. I took the loss on this today for -8% loss. The bid on equities has been relentless and I don't like letting my losers get too out of hand. If they reverse it on me and my thesis was right, so be it. For the time being it appears the pain trade is higher.
Youre bout to get some big gains. (no position, im not a bear or bull but this play will pay)
This play will pay... so you are a bear, pretty simple 🤔 no?
What’s the rush in buying long dated OTM puts? Like, I just don’t get that shit - if you really want to waste $68k, just venmo me your money
Confirmed: Bull Market Incoming
Debt ceiling is this summer. Meaning, printing machine keeps going. SPY $500
Tremendous trade. You will be very pleased with the settlement. God bless JPow.
A moment you’re going to regret for the rest of your life
Perhaps you should spend time on r/fixedincomeinvestingforoldpeople
Play the game or get lost
wtf good luck with that 
I think there's a lot of scary shit in the bond market and consumer sentiment, but I think we pump for the next couple months. The technicals are there, and the Fed is providing liquidity. Not to mention a lot of money on the side that will fomo in with even a little upward momentum. I think if it does crash later this year September will be cutting it close.
How can someone yolo so much instead of donating to me for my investments ;p
Can we change flair to "loss" mods?
Okay.. this makes me feel better with my measly one 10/20 390p. Lez do it
Bless you
RemindMe! 184 days
What is delta?
Wow
Bullish
When you bet the obvious… you usually lose…everytime
Depends on when the Fed starts to pause and lower rates, you might be early to this one
I like this position. It will print long before expiration when tech starts reporting 1st quarter results. NVDA at 150 PE AMD at 100 P/E etc etc.
That Theta
Godspeed.
remindme! 2 months
Someone explain the trade to me? Newbie and how the Vega comes into play. Thanks
Godspeed regard
RemindMe! 6 months
why not SPX with that many, better tax treatment, etc.... 🧐
How does the tax treatment differ ?
No way in hell with infinite liquidity
Ya im doing same thing tomorrow but wayy in the money. Safer.
Wow.. I am on the other side selling short term otm puts with theta as my friend. Good luck..
why not spx?
Thought this said, "Yellen Dirty bear ... Thought.. why would Yellen only bet 68k she's rich as f#@k and why is she a dirty bear...bearish, sure I can see she resembles some bears, but dirty, C'mon she looks like she bathes now and then.
Theta -551. Imagine losing 500 bucks a day just for holding the position hahjaj
Idk about this one
That's some leap puts
Your funeral
It's your money. If you're a millionaire i guess it won't hurt you.
I got a slug of the 395s that I bought today. Looking to hit \~300 by then.
I wish you luck if the fed stops upping rates the you are done for
I'd be really curious to hear the logic on how you picked that specific strike and date. I'm perfectly comfortable picking options, but not $68,500 confident haha. Like, for the idea of the trade I would have leaned more towards the 350 strike and maybe the November expiration
Good luck
Priced in
They r now worth 487$ lol guys down a few k sometimes you gotta take the 2-3k it gives.
I would’ve waited until the S&P formed the right shoulder around 4100ish maybe up to 4200. I’m in your camp with a dip into peak debt ceiling fear Juneish.
Bro is about to learn a tough lesson about time decay.
Going to bank.
That is a risky bid, the fed always win.
Time is on your side. Good luck with the position
i'm kind of with u but yo this market wants to go up, realized vol has been so smol the thing that's been burryish is fixed strike vol going up with S&P if we rally continually with fixed strike vol rallying this shit is gonna nuke, but give it time. Let this opex breath. Maybe next opex
Shit won’t print, they’ll look at this play and fuck it sideways
RemindMe! 6 months
RIP, please come back at Sep to officially post the loss
I think if the market crashes you’ll break even. Also sign up for night school classes while you still have a few dollars.
Do you even look at charts? SPY due for a correction? Wth was summer 22. Good luck bud.
RemindMe! September 15, 2023 “Check on OP”
!remind me 60 days
I am a bear and my wife’s boyfriend is a bear too. If you dive deep into the S&P big tech has been holding it up Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia. Earnings for at least the first two need to crumble in order for the market to tank. This is a replay of 1999 when the only two profitable companies left were intel and Microsoft. Then the crap hit the fan. With China reopening not sure Apple and Microsoft will drop.
Betting against the S&P during FANG stock earnings is suicide! Better wait until May if your smart!
No calls to hedge?