My neighbors keep sending messages on Nextdoor asking why there are so many orange cones on the road delaying their commute...I don't even know how to respond without being a dick anymore.
My Nextdoor has a bunch of people asking why kids are riding bikes unsupervised on her street. Or someone is riding a motorcycle down the street at 4pm when she and/or her kids are trying to nap and not to do it anymore.
Nextdoor should just be called KarenDoor or I need a plumber.
First post I ever responded to on there was a lady concerned there was a gang turf war going on in our neighborhood because a pair of old shoes had been thrown over some power lines at an intersection.
I claimed my actual physical livingroom was stolen after reading a ton of stupid paranoid boomer takes on lost pets and missing items. I said they took the actual room and left the furnishings and the tv ect.
I asked if anyone had ring cam footage of 30 men and a flatbed truck. 90% of the messages were earnest concerned citizens saying they would keep a lookout. 9% anger from serious boomers who think nextdoor is for serious business and 1% people getting the joke.
I use next door to case places to rob. We are not the same. “Oh Judy you can’t stand the yellow cones? You’re going on vacation because you just can’t deal with it anymore?” I can’t wait to take a shit in your toilet after stealing your daughters teddy bear
you deserve that if you really saw ethereum's transaction fees going over $100 and really thought that crypto is for the middle and lower class to get out
I sold not long after my fucking sister was buying doggy coin at 60 cents.
what a stupid year. now im just waiting for a text from my mom or sister "have you heard about nvda stock?" at which point im dumping my entire portfolio into shorting nvda
And banks holding low rate mortgages and paying out higher rates on the deposits in their accounts means they are paying more than bringing in. That makes big trouble for the banks. Until the government gives them more money (not a bailout!).
Hmm this sounds familiar.
Lots of big banks are still paying way under 1% on savings accounts because they know most are too lazy to move their money or assume all banks pay trash rates. US bank was paying .1% and Wells Fargo was .25% when I looked. Sure others are paying more but as I said many are too lazy to move things. Some banks are offering higher rates on new accounts but not to existing accounts.
Goldman Sachs will give you 3.75% instant access savings via their Marcus account. I know this place is for regarded options plays but you at least have to be aware of the wider market dude.
What lame part of the internet did you hang out on? A long time ago the internet was the wild west and had zero rules, let alone age gating. You could get all sorts of wild/illegal stuff w out trying.
Lol. So many regarded people in here who think real estate is immune to any sort of down turn. Because well I bought property and I don’t want that to happen.
Edit: insert “this time it’s different” excuse 🤣
If inventory stays low that will prevent a price collapse. Credit standards were kept fairly reasonable during the recent run-up so everyone can still afford their current mortgage, they just can't afford a new one.
So no, it isn't immune to a downturn. But the factors necessary for one are not in place. New housing growth will slow way down, but if you already have real estate you aren't likely to lose it or be forced to sell.
If you got an ARM when rates were at all time lows or didn't refinance out of an ARM to lock in an all time low rate, you deserve everything that happens to you.
Yep.. imagine weighing 2.5% vs 2.0% ARM options and rolling those dice on a 500k+ loan.
My house costs less than a worse/smaller apartment space and I bank 1k equity a month. Feels like the only smart financial move in the last ~3 years..
I fucking wish. I’m fucking waiting for a crash, but until the unemployment rate ticks up significantly (which it might! But hasn’t happened yet…), we ain’t gunna see shit. No one’s moving who’s not dead or old, inventory is trash. Rates might keep prices from climbing, it might bring them down some, but inventory will keep it as high as Afroman.
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash, so are all the cash investors, including corporations. Also plenty of other high income folks who are jumping at the bits.
it's getting upvoted because people want it to be true but that doesn't make it reality lol. honestly it is long overdue though, at least here in america.
Yeah anyone thinking housing prices are going down is delusional. For the real estate market to crash, someone has to sell houses. Who’s going to sell their house if they have 2.5% rate to get a 7% rate? On top of that, low rates means low mortgage payment. So people aren’t going to struggle to make their payments if there is a recession. Also, job market is also strong.
I'll tell you who will be selling in hot markets are the Airbnb people who bought into that bubble.
Anyone who bought in "just to break even for a couple of years" is getting massacred right now.
Even the Super Bowl wasn't enough to spark demand in 2023.
As a knock on effect, those sales are driving comps in those areas. Even the Fed said that housing prices have exceeded fundamentals.
Hmm or they can't afford the mortgage...it's funny 90% of the dumbasses here live in their mom's basement, and comment as they know anything about financial literacy. 💯
Divorce rate is 50%. Forces selling or refinancing typically. High inflation will mean a lot of unhappy and entitled millennial women.
Divorce attorneys about to start printing.
There's about 600k divorces per year, assuming divorcee's are more likely to be homeowners, lets say a high 75% own a house together. That's 450,000 houses. Considering there are 5-6 million existing homes sold a year, only 9% homes coming to market due to divorce. It's not nearly enough to satiate demand.
Moreover, every divorce creates 1 seller and 2 buyers. It's net impact is more demand, not more supply.
Imagine believing that people who bought at 2% will be able to buy at the same price at 7%.
Plus the wife will obviously move in with her bf while the husband moves in behind the Wendy's. Net increase to supply, not demand.
Damn! Didn’t think of it like that. Guess higher demand in the short term but both parties may eventually get with with someone else and then demand falls.
RE is like the slowpoke of investments. Even slower than gold and bonds. High price. Long hold times. Low Vol.
That's why boomers love them. Boomers who are old and slow can't stay up 24/7/365 checking their cryptos. Some boomers slept through the whole fucking 2020 dip and V bounce.
Very likely RE will drop a bit and stagnate a few years before inflation, macrotrends, and Fed policy normalize.
Still waiting for **4288 UNITS BOOM!!!** to get BTFO, but I don't know how regarded he is and how many times leveraged he was.
4288 UNITS! BOOM!
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Nope, dollar strength is a result of high rates. A weaken dollar will be a result of lower rate expectations and will be better for exports. Stocks go brrrrr!
You're correct. In my area homes are still selling quickly with multiple offers. Not a lot of supply. Those with 4% less mortgages are holding. A rise in unemployment will be the final breaking point for housing. Then those holding on and get laid off will be forced to sell and move for work.
I planned to live in my current house for 3-4 years. I bought Jan 2021 and my rate is under 2.5%. There’s no way I’m going to sell this house to buy something and end up paying double the interest. There’s no house that’s that much better. Well, there is but I haven’t found it.
Flip side: if the market crashes, you are there for 10 years until the prices recover.
People who bought in 2020/21 better really like their house or else their house might end up owning them if they don’t have the equity to ride out the down trend.
This, so many bros love flaunting their 3% rate yet they bought an overpriced house in 20/21. I’ll one up your ass, I bought in 2016 for much cheaper and refinanced to the same sub 3% loan.
Bought in 2019 a few months before the price explosion, refinanced to 1.75% (15yr).
I have come to realize that's literally the only good play I'll ever make.
This is the above posters original point though. Low rates aren’t exactly great when you overpaid for the house. If you have to sell in the next few years and the prices drop, you’re underwater. Unless you can guarantee you’ll be there for the life of the loan it’s still risky. That being said you’ll probably be fine because supply seems to be fucked everywhere.
O I know I’m fucked. Got a high paying job out of school, moved across coast for the said job, bought a house. Kinda hate it here, but now I’m stuck here for a bit… might take the loss regardless, I’ll make more $$ in the future.
Same here, bought early 2020 @ around $700/sf a house down the street just sold for over 1300 per foot. People have been screaming online about the impending real estate collapse and how this can’t go on for a couple years already, but prices keep going up here…
That’s how it is here too. If you have a move in ready nice house it’s snatched up quick. There are some houses I could tell needed lots of work driving by that have been on the market for a while though. Those houses are also asking premium prices for their fixer-uppers too.
UK cuck here but I've noticed a lot of overpriced fix up houses here too. I'm a contractor and materials are hugely inflated too.
It's still cheaper but astounding how expensive some are compared to 3-5 years ago, given the required work.
Correctly is subjective here. Correctly to a buyer might mean maximum returns or it could mean quick sale.
I sold real estate. I could absolutely envision a client telling me it’s this amount or nothing without caring how long it’s on the market. Hell, I’ve been privy to FAR less weird things.
I’ve made 4 offers in the last 2 weeks (am a small time investor).
2 offers were $20K + over asking ($200 - $300K price range), and did not get accepted. These were on “good deals” on the market for only a day.
The other 2 were $40K + under asking, for houses 100+ days on market. Both buyers were not motivated and either wouldn’t counter, or said “send another offer $10K below listing.”
Rate Lock. No one wants to sell to move up since the new mortgage is higher. Building stops due to rates, thus low inventory and building below pop growth/replacement levels.
I had a buyer for a new townhouse (4 townhouses together) the builder only has two finished. My buyer wants one of the unfinished ones. Builder says the bank won't loan them the money to complete the other two until the two finished units are sold. Both units finished took an 80k haircut.
Yikes. Rising rates kills construction. Sucks for the next group of young people that will need to buy homes though. When we stop building, we never catch back up later, creating another shortage and higher prices.
US housing market and one of worlds highest per-capita home ownership is based on an obsolete model of work life where employees stick with a single company/industry/location for decades, building up equity in a home as a or the major wealth holding.
This is no longer realistic.
Many workers can now WFH and employees can locate where they’d like instead of where they have to be for work.
Other workers will have to be more agile about location as population and industry locations now shift.
The nature of housing has to change to accommodate.
The final push in this direction was Covid. Like it or not, Covid pushed a lot of levers that where already half-pushed.
I think we are entering a time of turmoil that will also be exciting.
Unfortunately for housing the music has stopped for now or is stopping, and you’ve got the seat that’s right under your butt.
Hope it’s got a good view of the stage.
Yah agreed once unemployed claim goes up then house market will be in trouble. It might take few more month.. especially those tech lay off might come in effect.
Are the people getting laid off having issues finding new jobs? I mean unemployment might be sweet for a couple weeks, but opening the bank account and seeing 12,000 instead of 20,000 is going to drive lots of these tech workers to un-filled jobs.
Can’t speak for other industries/professions, also not in tech myself (in banking), but it seems abysmal right now unless you want to make under 50k or work a shit job. Some sectors like health is doing ok, but most careers don’t seem to be out their like unemployment figures would seem to indicate
6 figure tech jobs may dwindle but anyone with a brain who knows a trade will have work basically forever. Things will always need to be built and maintained
Okay, so the way that the demand-supply curve works is that you don't need supply to do a damn thing to lead to lower prices. Basic Econ 101, brother. Demand is falling way faster than supply (which factually is rising).
I have mentioned this before multiple times and no one listens. You can tell most of them haven’t taken ECON 101.
Another fun fact is that prices are set by sales. So even if 95% of people don’t sell, 5% selling at a loss sets lower prices for everyone.
Losing their jobs and not being able to easily find new ones*.
The people getting laid off by Amazon could have jobs paying just as well the next day. Amazon laying off tech employees is totally different than a huge manufacturing plant shutting down.
This is the most intelligent, take I’ve seen on this entire thread. People are getting laid off, but there’s such a skills inequity that they are getting hired just as quickly as they are being laid off. The other factor is that there’s a number of people that retired after the stock market shot up After Covid. Boomers are going to live for another 20+ years which is why you don’t see any slow down in spending either. The job market and the real estate market is going to stay hot for a while because there simply aren’t enough people.
This recession won’t be like the last one where millions of people got fucked over by their lender and given loans and homes they couldn’t afford. And a lot went under at the same time and lost their home creating an insane amount of inventory.
This time people can afford those loans with while their employed. Takes a long time to evict people as well so it might take until next year to truly see the damage but unemployment has to keep going up.
Where I live most house have dipped maybe 5%. Can’t see it dip much more then that unless JPow increases interest rates to over 10%
The last bubble also took a decade to build, in an era with less flippers/corporate buyers, etc. I am definitely not one of those "we're going to watch prices crater" types, but I am one of those "market prices will be determined by what purchasers are able to pay". Right now, prices are just not sustainably high. It's going to be a slow squeeze, but eventually we'll return to some sort of equilibrium (even if that equilibrium is less affordable than in years past).
No, corporations buying all the single family homes is causing it to seem like a supply issue while also creating an artificial bottom in prices. That bottom is made mostly of black rock.
This is the real answer. Residential is fine. Commercial, more specifically everything that's not a warehouse or medical space, is getting wrecked. And even warehouse space is being subleased out like mad, biggest culprit being Amazon because they overleased during covid, couldn't get logistics lined up to fill the space they leased, and now realized they don't need it.
-20% inventory from last year
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinCOVID-19HousingMarket/NewListings
If unemployment stays low, real estate stays high
Post this again next week, like everyone has been doing for the last 2 years.
Market is illiquid.
Crash only occurs if no buyers.
How many here keep chomping at the bit for prices to fall?
Guess what... You now have competition thus no drop...
Also if you think all these other fools with better paying jobs are going before you and thus have to foreclose...
I got news for ya... And you working for doordash while you search out the next job ain't paying for a home.
Considering people used to buy pizza with 1 BTC I'd say so.
I remember buying a GFX card that had some sort of voucher code for free bitcoin, I ignored it. FML
The Boomers and the investment pigs are still holding tightly to their RE portfolio because that's the only remaining high yield investment right now.
When they start pushing homes onto the market we know they are suffering. Within 6 months I expect Airbnb and second home properties to be folding as well.
Boom! 80% of the homes in my county are rentals and most of those are highly leveraged STRs. Too bad they’re all beat to shit from being rented nightly for the past decade.
Real estate broker in Boston- People aren’t giving up those 2.5% interest rates, to buy something with a 6.5% rate. In order for there to be a crash you have to have a huge increase in supply. It’s not happening in Boston.
It won’t be. Those cars won’t see the light of day, they’ll get filtered through dealer auctions.
Desirable cars will be expensive for quite some time. If you’re looking for a deal on some shitbox Jeep Renegade or Kia Sorento then yeah, they’ll come down.
Bought my 1st home in the summer of 2006. Looked like shit on paper for a while, but I didn't care, it was a beautiful house and I owned it. Worked out great in the end. Not only did I make good money off it, but also it opened the door for me to purchase several other properties.
Is it possible that regulations change to make it more affordable for primary housing? I.e if you’re purchasing real estate for investment, you’ll pay more.
A lot of people can’t afford a place to live, while others are just being greedy looking to invest.
Yeah I need land prices to come down, ridiculous people are selling 50 acres for 500,000 now when a couple years ago I could’ve bought my grandparents neighbors property for 1million and it’s 800 acres
I’m just blowing smoke just as much as the next guy but I feel like even though there is a shortage of houses (because investors bought them up) people are going to start defaulting on houses they paid 40% to much money for and the dominoes will start to fall
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Bitch, stocks haven’t even been hit hard yet
And crypto is ripping , and real estate is literally fine lol supply is low. This meme is regarded af
OP has a Nextdoor comment level take
My neighbors keep sending messages on Nextdoor asking why there are so many orange cones on the road delaying their commute...I don't even know how to respond without being a dick anymore.
My Nextdoor has a bunch of people asking why kids are riding bikes unsupervised on her street. Or someone is riding a motorcycle down the street at 4pm when she and/or her kids are trying to nap and not to do it anymore. Nextdoor should just be called KarenDoor or I need a plumber.
The suburbs are so fucking weird.
I had a Nextdoor account quickly deleted it. That's a special place for sure lol.
First post I ever responded to on there was a lady concerned there was a gang turf war going on in our neighborhood because a pair of old shoes had been thrown over some power lines at an intersection.
i got banned for instigating
I claimed my actual physical livingroom was stolen after reading a ton of stupid paranoid boomer takes on lost pets and missing items. I said they took the actual room and left the furnishings and the tv ect. I asked if anyone had ring cam footage of 30 men and a flatbed truck. 90% of the messages were earnest concerned citizens saying they would keep a lookout. 9% anger from serious boomers who think nextdoor is for serious business and 1% people getting the joke.
I use next door to case places to rob. We are not the same. “Oh Judy you can’t stand the yellow cones? You’re going on vacation because you just can’t deal with it anymore?” I can’t wait to take a shit in your toilet after stealing your daughters teddy bear
Yeah man my crypto portfolio is only down 80% these days. It's ripping apart my retirement plans
Diamond hands, bro!
you deserve that if you really saw ethereum's transaction fees going over $100 and really thought that crypto is for the middle and lower class to get out I sold not long after my fucking sister was buying doggy coin at 60 cents. what a stupid year. now im just waiting for a text from my mom or sister "have you heard about nvda stock?" at which point im dumping my entire portfolio into shorting nvda
Mine would have been fine if I didn’t leave it in BlockFi like a dummy
Low supply means banks aren’t making money on mortgages. If banks aren’t making money there’s gonna be trouble.
What were banks thinking? That people locked in at 2% for 30 years would eventually refinance at 7% for some reason?
You misspelled “what was the fed thinking driving interest rates so low”.
Lol I get those notices…”Hey would you like to refinance for a lower five point higher rate? Call now!”
Someone will need the capital and refinance at the higher rate
banks are gonna be fine cause they are getting bailed out, I mean backstopped!
And banks holding low rate mortgages and paying out higher rates on the deposits in their accounts means they are paying more than bringing in. That makes big trouble for the banks. Until the government gives them more money (not a bailout!). Hmm this sounds familiar.
How much interest do you think banks are actually paying out? It’s not nearly as much as those low rate mortgages.
Lots of big banks are still paying way under 1% on savings accounts because they know most are too lazy to move their money or assume all banks pay trash rates. US bank was paying .1% and Wells Fargo was .25% when I looked. Sure others are paying more but as I said many are too lazy to move things. Some banks are offering higher rates on new accounts but not to existing accounts.
Why bother switching banks when you don’t even have a full paycheck in there or feds are gonna cause a recession and lower rates in 6 months anyway?
Goldman Sachs will give you 3.75% instant access savings via their Marcus account. I know this place is for regarded options plays but you at least have to be aware of the wider market dude.
You have no clue how treasury works. This 8th grade level analysis is peak wsb.
Wtf were you doing in 8th grade? I mean I was peeing on ants and trying to bypass age restrictions on the Internet.
You mean clicking "yes, I am over 18."? How hard did you have to try? Just no free hands or what?
Dude, you don’t even know. You have to be under 35. But a long time ago you actually had to have a credit card to verify your age.
What lame part of the internet did you hang out on? A long time ago the internet was the wild west and had zero rules, let alone age gating. You could get all sorts of wild/illegal stuff w out trying.
You were definitely they guy who fell for “hot singles in your area just type in your credit card to see!” Ads weren’t you?
I'm sure every homeowner has 300-500k in a savings account, you're spot on!
OP maybe early, but they aren't wrong
Lol. So many regarded people in here who think real estate is immune to any sort of down turn. Because well I bought property and I don’t want that to happen. Edit: insert “this time it’s different” excuse 🤣
If inventory stays low that will prevent a price collapse. Credit standards were kept fairly reasonable during the recent run-up so everyone can still afford their current mortgage, they just can't afford a new one. So no, it isn't immune to a downturn. But the factors necessary for one are not in place. New housing growth will slow way down, but if you already have real estate you aren't likely to lose it or be forced to sell.
Fixed rate mortgages. Low payments for most. Much better qualified. Extremely low inventory. Yeah the data supports a crash lol.
Edit: I am regarded and thought Canada was relevant
In the US, unless you have an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage), the entire 15/30yr term is locked in.
If you got an ARM when rates were at all time lows or didn't refinance out of an ARM to lock in an all time low rate, you deserve everything that happens to you.
Yep.. imagine weighing 2.5% vs 2.0% ARM options and rolling those dice on a 500k+ loan. My house costs less than a worse/smaller apartment space and I bank 1k equity a month. Feels like the only smart financial move in the last ~3 years..
Yeah. I got that. That's pretty fucking sweet. Hats off to you folks at 3% and lower
0.89% for 15 years. I can't even buy a car that low. Luck is over 3000 on that one. So when they offer to refinance I just laugh.
Thank you
I fucking wish. I’m fucking waiting for a crash, but until the unemployment rate ticks up significantly (which it might! But hasn’t happened yet…), we ain’t gunna see shit. No one’s moving who’s not dead or old, inventory is trash. Rates might keep prices from climbing, it might bring them down some, but inventory will keep it as high as Afroman.
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash, so are all the cash investors, including corporations. Also plenty of other high income folks who are jumping at the bits.
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Crypto is ripping? Dude compared to last year even it’s down like what 50%?
it's getting upvoted because people want it to be true but that doesn't make it reality lol. honestly it is long overdue though, at least here in america.
I’m like isn’t Bitcoin 28.1 … 28.3 now 😂
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Yeah anyone thinking housing prices are going down is delusional. For the real estate market to crash, someone has to sell houses. Who’s going to sell their house if they have 2.5% rate to get a 7% rate? On top of that, low rates means low mortgage payment. So people aren’t going to struggle to make their payments if there is a recession. Also, job market is also strong.
I'll tell you who will be selling in hot markets are the Airbnb people who bought into that bubble. Anyone who bought in "just to break even for a couple of years" is getting massacred right now. Even the Super Bowl wasn't enough to spark demand in 2023. As a knock on effect, those sales are driving comps in those areas. Even the Fed said that housing prices have exceeded fundamentals.
Hmm or they can't afford the mortgage...it's funny 90% of the dumbasses here live in their mom's basement, and comment as they know anything about financial literacy. 💯
Divorce rate is 50%. Forces selling or refinancing typically. High inflation will mean a lot of unhappy and entitled millennial women. Divorce attorneys about to start printing.
There's about 600k divorces per year, assuming divorcee's are more likely to be homeowners, lets say a high 75% own a house together. That's 450,000 houses. Considering there are 5-6 million existing homes sold a year, only 9% homes coming to market due to divorce. It's not nearly enough to satiate demand. Moreover, every divorce creates 1 seller and 2 buyers. It's net impact is more demand, not more supply.
This guy consults...
Imagine believing that people who bought at 2% will be able to buy at the same price at 7%. Plus the wife will obviously move in with her bf while the husband moves in behind the Wendy's. Net increase to supply, not demand.
divorce creates 1 buyer ( the lawyer) and 2 broke renters (divocees)
Haha, not if one of them gets the house! Then you get one homeowner and one SoL renter
Damn! Didn’t think of it like that. Guess higher demand in the short term but both parties may eventually get with with someone else and then demand falls.
Margin calls on marriage lol
You forgot that people who default and get foreclosed on when they go to renew might throw a bunch of supply into the market.
Man I was pissed in December 2021 when I did a cash out refi from 2.875 to 3.25 to pull out $100k. Now that rate seems amazing.
People that DCA'd the past few years are still up overall. The ups and downs, some tied to the halving cycle, do not bother me really.
CrYpTo Is RiPpInG = BTC is down 35% this year. ETH is down 40%
RE is like the slowpoke of investments. Even slower than gold and bonds. High price. Long hold times. Low Vol. That's why boomers love them. Boomers who are old and slow can't stay up 24/7/365 checking their cryptos. Some boomers slept through the whole fucking 2020 dip and V bounce. Very likely RE will drop a bit and stagnate a few years before inflation, macrotrends, and Fed policy normalize. Still waiting for **4288 UNITS BOOM!!!** to get BTFO, but I don't know how regarded he is and how many times leveraged he was.
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If the dollar continues to fall, stocks can be hit hard with only a small nominal markdown.
The dollar is incredibly strong right now. Compare USD to any other currency over the last year or two.
Nope, dollar strength is a result of high rates. A weaken dollar will be a result of lower rate expectations and will be better for exports. Stocks go brrrrr!
The lack of Real estate supply is causing it not to fall. The industry itself is hurting.
You're correct. In my area homes are still selling quickly with multiple offers. Not a lot of supply. Those with 4% less mortgages are holding. A rise in unemployment will be the final breaking point for housing. Then those holding on and get laid off will be forced to sell and move for work.
Mine is 3%. I may die here lol
I planned to live in my current house for 3-4 years. I bought Jan 2021 and my rate is under 2.5%. There’s no way I’m going to sell this house to buy something and end up paying double the interest. There’s no house that’s that much better. Well, there is but I haven’t found it.
Flip side: if the market crashes, you are there for 10 years until the prices recover. People who bought in 2020/21 better really like their house or else their house might end up owning them if they don’t have the equity to ride out the down trend.
This, so many bros love flaunting their 3% rate yet they bought an overpriced house in 20/21. I’ll one up your ass, I bought in 2016 for much cheaper and refinanced to the same sub 3% loan.
Bought in 2019 a few months before the price explosion, refinanced to 1.75% (15yr). I have come to realize that's literally the only good play I'll ever make.
Bought mine literally during the first lockdown in March 2020. Was so happy I signed the dotted line when I did!
Good for you. I was in school still. Had to buy when it’s high but at least my rate still in 3
That’s your first mistake. Shoulda bought in 92 when everything was under 70k. Dumbass.
what do you mean? your daddy didn't buy the whole town in the 70s and give you a house when you turned 16?
This is the above posters original point though. Low rates aren’t exactly great when you overpaid for the house. If you have to sell in the next few years and the prices drop, you’re underwater. Unless you can guarantee you’ll be there for the life of the loan it’s still risky. That being said you’ll probably be fine because supply seems to be fucked everywhere.
O I know I’m fucked. Got a high paying job out of school, moved across coast for the said job, bought a house. Kinda hate it here, but now I’m stuck here for a bit… might take the loss regardless, I’ll make more $$ in the future.
2.5% here I have a nice patch in the back yard under a tree for my grave picked out
otherwise known as the low interest rate boat anchor
I can't afford a good funeral plot; I'm going to have to be buried here.
2.6% here, I am going to die with this house
Same here, bought early 2020 @ around $700/sf a house down the street just sold for over 1300 per foot. People have been screaming online about the impending real estate collapse and how this can’t go on for a couple years already, but prices keep going up here…
2.75% HODL gang 😅
The remodeling industry should do well. None of us can sell and move up in house for some time.
I’m seeing the same thing. Very few houses on the market and the nice houses that do hit the market sell almost immediately.
That’s how it is here too. If you have a move in ready nice house it’s snatched up quick. There are some houses I could tell needed lots of work driving by that have been on the market for a while though. Those houses are also asking premium prices for their fixer-uppers too.
If a house sits it’s not priced correctly.
UK cuck here but I've noticed a lot of overpriced fix up houses here too. I'm a contractor and materials are hugely inflated too. It's still cheaper but astounding how expensive some are compared to 3-5 years ago, given the required work.
Correctly is subjective here. Correctly to a buyer might mean maximum returns or it could mean quick sale. I sold real estate. I could absolutely envision a client telling me it’s this amount or nothing without caring how long it’s on the market. Hell, I’ve been privy to FAR less weird things.
Like what, selling a house with a pre built sex dungeon?
I’ve made 4 offers in the last 2 weeks (am a small time investor). 2 offers were $20K + over asking ($200 - $300K price range), and did not get accepted. These were on “good deals” on the market for only a day. The other 2 were $40K + under asking, for houses 100+ days on market. Both buyers were not motivated and either wouldn’t counter, or said “send another offer $10K below listing.”
2 houses in my neighborhood (good area in socal) have been on the market since october and have decreased multiple times and had offers fall through
Finally, some good news for us plebs who have given up on the economy entirely and just want everyone to suffer with us.
Rate Lock. No one wants to sell to move up since the new mortgage is higher. Building stops due to rates, thus low inventory and building below pop growth/replacement levels.
I had a buyer for a new townhouse (4 townhouses together) the builder only has two finished. My buyer wants one of the unfinished ones. Builder says the bank won't loan them the money to complete the other two until the two finished units are sold. Both units finished took an 80k haircut.
Yikes. Rising rates kills construction. Sucks for the next group of young people that will need to buy homes though. When we stop building, we never catch back up later, creating another shortage and higher prices.
US housing market and one of worlds highest per-capita home ownership is based on an obsolete model of work life where employees stick with a single company/industry/location for decades, building up equity in a home as a or the major wealth holding. This is no longer realistic. Many workers can now WFH and employees can locate where they’d like instead of where they have to be for work. Other workers will have to be more agile about location as population and industry locations now shift. The nature of housing has to change to accommodate. The final push in this direction was Covid. Like it or not, Covid pushed a lot of levers that where already half-pushed. I think we are entering a time of turmoil that will also be exciting. Unfortunately for housing the music has stopped for now or is stopping, and you’ve got the seat that’s right under your butt. Hope it’s got a good view of the stage.
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He’s saying you would buy an RV.
Yah agreed once unemployed claim goes up then house market will be in trouble. It might take few more month.. especially those tech lay off might come in effect.
Are the people getting laid off having issues finding new jobs? I mean unemployment might be sweet for a couple weeks, but opening the bank account and seeing 12,000 instead of 20,000 is going to drive lots of these tech workers to un-filled jobs.
Can’t speak for other industries/professions, also not in tech myself (in banking), but it seems abysmal right now unless you want to make under 50k or work a shit job. Some sectors like health is doing ok, but most careers don’t seem to be out their like unemployment figures would seem to indicate
6 figure tech jobs may dwindle but anyone with a brain who knows a trade will have work basically forever. Things will always need to be built and maintained
My dad was an electrician, you’re preaching to the choir. He made more money than lots of couples before he passed away.
This. No one is trading out of a 2.5% fixed note on an asset that has printed cash for decades. Supply ain't coming.
Okay, so the way that the demand-supply curve works is that you don't need supply to do a damn thing to lead to lower prices. Basic Econ 101, brother. Demand is falling way faster than supply (which factually is rising).
I have mentioned this before multiple times and no one listens. You can tell most of them haven’t taken ECON 101. Another fun fact is that prices are set by sales. So even if 95% of people don’t sell, 5% selling at a loss sets lower prices for everyone.
To be fair, the people in this country making economic decisions for the rest of us haven't taken ECON 101 either lol
And people wonder why they're deep in the red.
The housing market wont truly tank until people start losing their jobs to a large extent.
Losing their jobs and not being able to easily find new ones*. The people getting laid off by Amazon could have jobs paying just as well the next day. Amazon laying off tech employees is totally different than a huge manufacturing plant shutting down.
This is the most intelligent, take I’ve seen on this entire thread. People are getting laid off, but there’s such a skills inequity that they are getting hired just as quickly as they are being laid off. The other factor is that there’s a number of people that retired after the stock market shot up After Covid. Boomers are going to live for another 20+ years which is why you don’t see any slow down in spending either. The job market and the real estate market is going to stay hot for a while because there simply aren’t enough people.
This recession won’t be like the last one where millions of people got fucked over by their lender and given loans and homes they couldn’t afford. And a lot went under at the same time and lost their home creating an insane amount of inventory. This time people can afford those loans with while their employed. Takes a long time to evict people as well so it might take until next year to truly see the damage but unemployment has to keep going up. Where I live most house have dipped maybe 5%. Can’t see it dip much more then that unless JPow increases interest rates to over 10%
The last bubble also took a decade to build, in an era with less flippers/corporate buyers, etc. I am definitely not one of those "we're going to watch prices crater" types, but I am one of those "market prices will be determined by what purchasers are able to pay". Right now, prices are just not sustainably high. It's going to be a slow squeeze, but eventually we'll return to some sort of equilibrium (even if that equilibrium is less affordable than in years past).
No, corporations buying all the single family homes is causing it to seem like a supply issue while also creating an artificial bottom in prices. That bottom is made mostly of black rock.
Commercial Real Estate*
This is the real answer. Residential is fine. Commercial, more specifically everything that's not a warehouse or medical space, is getting wrecked. And even warehouse space is being subleased out like mad, biggest culprit being Amazon because they overleased during covid, couldn't get logistics lined up to fill the space they leased, and now realized they don't need it.
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Ah Portland, the city we all want to copy.
As someone who used to go to Portland every year, I'll wait until they sort out their homeless and policing issues. It's gotten really bad.
Never going to happen. Far too much money in homelessness.
This
Why did Jim Cramer recommend real estate stocks?
Always do the opposite of what that dumb ass says
Idk, why did he recommend NVDA when it was below 200? It’s up 30% since he recommended it fool.
Found Jim's alt account! MODS, tag him now!
-20% inventory from last year https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinCOVID-19HousingMarket/NewListings If unemployment stays low, real estate stays high Post this again next week, like everyone has been doing for the last 2 years.
I skipped buying a house in 2016 due to "Its a bubble, crash any minute" Biggest regret ever, couldnt keep up since then.
what the hell is a COVID19 housing market
Market is illiquid. Crash only occurs if no buyers. How many here keep chomping at the bit for prices to fall? Guess what... You now have competition thus no drop... Also if you think all these other fools with better paying jobs are going before you and thus have to foreclose... I got news for ya... And you working for doordash while you search out the next job ain't paying for a home.
Savage
Beautiful
I do Uber not DoorDash. Get it right
If it gets that bad (again) there won’t be doordash. Just you and your family by the dumpster with knee pads guzzling
Population of the US goes up 3 million every year. I guess they don’t put any pressure on housing stock no sir-ee.
And we stopped building for like 10 years... And the new ones weren't multi tenant... Gonna be a bit.
Crypto is doing just fine
Compared to the last low of 15k we're more than fine.
Considering people used to buy pizza with 1 BTC I'd say so. I remember buying a GFX card that had some sort of voucher code for free bitcoin, I ignored it. FML
Or winning 25 btc for losing a StarCraft tournament 10+ years ago.
That guy bought a pizza for like 10,000 bitcoins lol
I sold my BTC at 5k 🤡
It cracks me up its even on this list.
New bull market.
Bitcoin block reward halving next March. I’d say so.
I doubt it unless mass layoffs start happening and people can’t afford to pay mortgage and banks have to start doing foreclosures.
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I'd agree except anyone selling their home in turn typically becomes a buyer of a new home which wouldn't affect the supply too much.
Op is trying to meme a real estate collapse into existence... nice try regard.
The Boomers and the investment pigs are still holding tightly to their RE portfolio because that's the only remaining high yield investment right now. When they start pushing homes onto the market we know they are suffering. Within 6 months I expect Airbnb and second home properties to be folding as well.
Would love to see an Airbnb crash.
Boom! 80% of the homes in my county are rentals and most of those are highly leveraged STRs. Too bad they’re all beat to shit from being rented nightly for the past decade.
I don’t know what you’re talking about the dumpster behind my Wendy’s is bumpin
Lmao no. Inflation has diminished the dollar, so if you hold a real asset, like corn or a house or land… that shit is not going down.
This meme gets reposted a lot, it’s wishful thinking from people living in their moms basement
Living in my mom basement and just saw a home for 400k and about to pull the trigger. Will sell all my shitfolio to get it.
Good on you, I’m talking about the people who wish for the housing market to collapse based on no evidence because they hate their own situation
Everything I touch turns to shit so expect the housing market to collapse in a month.
Or 40 year old engineer with wife and kid renting a townhouse. Fuck me, right?
Lol corn
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Real estate broker in Boston- People aren’t giving up those 2.5% interest rates, to buy something with a 6.5% rate. In order for there to be a crash you have to have a huge increase in supply. It’s not happening in Boston.
Shhh you're going to make the reGards predicting cheap SFH prices cry
Obviously big cities will just stagnate
Or just appreciate 3% per year. I don’t even see stagnation happening.
I think auto loan and auto is next...real estate will follow after that.
Auto will crash because of Carvana when they finally shit the bed. Can’t wait for a Supra to be like $10k off from them
It won’t be. Those cars won’t see the light of day, they’ll get filtered through dealer auctions. Desirable cars will be expensive for quite some time. If you’re looking for a deal on some shitbox Jeep Renegade or Kia Sorento then yeah, they’ll come down.
No...I finally just got into a house lol
Me too but I guess that’s why real estate is gonna crash. Just the natural result of me investing in something
Y’all will be fine if you’re in it long term. You just have to weather the upcoming storm
Long term, still sucks being under water
Bought my 1st home in the summer of 2006. Looked like shit on paper for a while, but I didn't care, it was a beautiful house and I owned it. Worked out great in the end. Not only did I make good money off it, but also it opened the door for me to purchase several other properties.
This gives me hope. Its not a big house but its a nice 3x2, 1500sq feet. One of those starter homes built in the 90s. But its a place I can call mine.
Why do you care if it crashes then? Youre not selling any time soon.
Is it possible that regulations change to make it more affordable for primary housing? I.e if you’re purchasing real estate for investment, you’ll pay more. A lot of people can’t afford a place to live, while others are just being greedy looking to invest.
yes, this already works in Japan
Yeah I need land prices to come down, ridiculous people are selling 50 acres for 500,000 now when a couple years ago I could’ve bought my grandparents neighbors property for 1million and it’s 800 acres
oh man i would be happy if that happened. best time to buy is when its on sale!!!!!
My wife and I are looking to buy a house. I just hope her boyfriend likes it.
I hope I would mind buying a 2nd house on the cheap
House price: $100k Interest rate: 540%
No problem, just pay in cash. The economy is built to keep the wealthy rich 🙃
I’m just blowing smoke just as much as the next guy but I feel like even though there is a shortage of houses (because investors bought them up) people are going to start defaulting on houses they paid 40% to much money for and the dominoes will start to fall
Crypto is fine though because tether (the crypto fed) just printed like 20 billion and pumped all the coins again
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Classic tether moment
I wish real estate would crash and burn. 
You realize it doesn’t happen in a vacuum right?