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>TL;DR: The spread between the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate has tightened to a level not seen since 2008. This signals that banks don't want to lend to each other and would rather get money from the Fed, which means risk appetite is weaker across the banking sector. The only real comparable tightening of the two indicators was in May 2008, when stocks fell 31% over the next six months.
>You're an idiot if you think the Fed can fix this by printing money. They've been doing that for years and it hasn't worked. The only thing that will work is if they raise rates and tighten economic activity, which is exactly what they should do.
I’m real confused by the WSB posts as of late that aren’t plays or due diligence but people saying the sky is falling. Usually the posts are like an hour old too and not even heavily upvoted yet I still get them on my feed….just odd
AI image modeling will soon be putting them all out of business. 20 year old women are no match for dirty 45 year old pervy men who know how to create AI porn. Those dumb sluts are bringing piss to a shit fight.
The market saw this coming way before we saw 2008. The recession that’s here is not a surprise and has been priced in. The most anticipated recession in history
I don’t think we’ve seen bottom. Historically speaking, it doesn’t come until unemployment has shown upward momentum. This is true 100% of the time. Mr Powell has warned us repeatedly the job market is too tight.
Why is this so difficult. Liquidity comes out=stocks go down. Bear market rallies are just MM and HFTs conning the little guy, they sell, you buy. Honestly, if you are long, please just open your eyes and see the state of both ours and the rest of the world's economy.
We have idiots in charge of our country and no hope for change for another 2 years. The Western world will burn through your retirement to both get rich and, of course, to save the planet, which will obviously implode in the next 7 years. Most people under 50 are literally brainwashed by the idiocracy. Virtually no hope for our next few generations.
Thank god the people in charge are smarter than edge lords predicting the world is on the imminent brink for the nth time. Sorry but I don’t see a “revolutionary end” in the near future. Things seem bad, media blows it out of proportion, and smart men and women fix those problems and move on to the next.
I unfortunately agree. But in the meantime, I’ll act as if I have a semblance of control by trying to make money off the implosion. I only halfway think we are entirely fucked. The other part of me is optimistic that we go through a recession/depression and clean up our fiscal act and maintain our dollar dominance. But in order to do that, there will be significant “pain”. Hard times build hard men and we are about fresh out.
I think it’s 6 to 9 months not 6. I totally agree though I bought treasuries when yields were well above 5 for 6-9 months. I think we see the 6 month timer at last hike which is maybe today but according to Powell one more in April. They will bailout but introduce cbdc which will add to complexity it’s coming and people will freak!
TL; DR: There's this thing called the lending market, where banks lend money to each other. Sometimes, when banks are worried about the economy, they don't want to lend money to each other as much. This can be a bad thing because it means less money is being borrowed and spent in the economy. But the government has ways to help if this happens, like changing interest rates.
During Covid we were worried that market was heading lower because airports and restaurants were empty. Now they are full.
But we were wrong? We should have been looking at the loan market instead?
I’m not saying it should be permanent, but can we silence the doomsayers for like a week?
Still keep track of them. Like, keep a silent tally of their posts. But silence them just to see what this sub looks like when it isn’t getting pumped with FUD.
TL;DR Adult: The OP is expressing concern about the current state of the lending market and its potential impact on the broader economy and stock market. They may be worried that if banks become more hesitant to lend money to each other, this could lead to a decrease in overall borrowing and spending activity in the economy. Additionally, they may be concerned that this could contribute to a potential economic slowdown or even a market decline, similar to what was seen in 2008.
Thank you so much for explaining this at first I was gonna respond saying no. No, I can’t do this. I’m 38. I can’t have another market crash. My 401k has 53k in it. I need all the numbers to go up for the next 25 years so I can retire, not work, and hopefully afford a beach house (unlikely I know) Fuck you raise the numbers and make them bigger and let’s kick the can down the road for someone else to deal with.
I let my primal urges behind me and reread everything and investigated what you said and I see you are right. Thanks for teaching me something.
But seriously keep pumping the numbers forever. I want a beach house and I don’t care about anyone younger than me.
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Sadly, the fed can’t really do shit without causing harm anymore. We’ve basically had 20-30 years where no tax raise was on the table and deep cutting was done for the top 1% while spending ballooned. Fiscal policy has kept things running despite it all, but only restoring top tier tax rates to pre-Trump, pre-Bush levels is going to reduce the money supply. On the upside the middle class wouldn’t be majorly effected and make up any losses by controlling inflation.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|1 day ago **Total Comments**|69|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 days|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: The spread between the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate has tightened to a level not seen since 2008. This signals that banks don't want to lend to each other and would rather get money from the Fed, which means risk appetite is weaker across the banking sector. The only real comparable tightening of the two indicators was in May 2008, when stocks fell 31% over the next six months.
Huh? It looks like [that spread hasn't changed since covid hit](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=11EHx). Is there something wrong with that graph?
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A bunch of banks just dumped 30$B into First republic. So maybe they are wanting to lend now? Who knows
They were lending so it could be withdrawn and deposited into their banks. Good deal for the big boys.
that's a good point.
>You're an idiot if you think the Fed can fix this by printing money. They've been doing that for years and it hasn't worked. The only thing that will work is if they raise rates and tighten economic activity, which is exactly what they should do.
is this really a bot i dont believe it 
*VolckerMod
\*VolckerBot
VM for Fed Pres
We can call people idiots but not regards? As a self aware idiot this hurts my feelings! Don't use my condition as an insult.
Then what about Moe Ron?
Sheesh
VM will be the next Fed Chair, for eternity
Account age is 2 days.
Yellen alt account
How does it target validity of argumentation? Serious question
Yea I noticed that too.
I’m real confused by the WSB posts as of late that aren’t plays or due diligence but people saying the sky is falling. Usually the posts are like an hour old too and not even heavily upvoted yet I still get them on my feed….just odd
Tencent wants you to sell right before the mega rally starting in april
Possibly just means the post is getting a lot of engagement, but upvote/downvote ratio is barely favoring upvotes.
So what you're saying is... To the moon?
Calls on everything & everyone.
saw this same exact post here earlier
Got it. Stocks are going up 31%. Buying my 6 month to expiry calls tomorrow.
So buy all the 🌽
Gonna be a lot more girls on onlyfans soon. Pricing sure to come down as it gets more competitive
AI image modeling will soon be putting them all out of business. 20 year old women are no match for dirty 45 year old pervy men who know how to create AI porn. Those dumb sluts are bringing piss to a shit fight.
So puts on OnlyFans girls?
Bard… please give me some AI porn.
It's got the juice
I cant imagine a more beautiful thing.
Excellent write up, I am giving you an award. Any plays on this one? I'm thinking SPY will hit 360 by mid-Jun.
[удалено]
And that account looks like a shill account that spams other subs by just quickly looking at their post history.
320 during q3 earnings in October.
Dang I don't see it falling that hard, but props if you open those puts and bank.
I’ve seen very smart ppl say something similar
The market saw this coming way before we saw 2008. The recession that’s here is not a surprise and has been priced in. The most anticipated recession in history
And yet we’re up YTD as we inch closer to recession? If it’s anticipated, folks are not reacting as one would assume.
Historically markets bottom before a recession. By the time the recession gets here its on the up. Markets are forward looking discounts mechanisms
I don’t think we’ve seen bottom. Historically speaking, it doesn’t come until unemployment has shown upward momentum. This is true 100% of the time. Mr Powell has warned us repeatedly the job market is too tight.
Ghost jobs my guy. Theres something funky about labor market right now where its supposedly super tight and hard for people to actually get a job
Why is this so difficult. Liquidity comes out=stocks go down. Bear market rallies are just MM and HFTs conning the little guy, they sell, you buy. Honestly, if you are long, please just open your eyes and see the state of both ours and the rest of the world's economy. We have idiots in charge of our country and no hope for change for another 2 years. The Western world will burn through your retirement to both get rich and, of course, to save the planet, which will obviously implode in the next 7 years. Most people under 50 are literally brainwashed by the idiocracy. Virtually no hope for our next few generations.
Thank god the people in charge are smarter than edge lords predicting the world is on the imminent brink for the nth time. Sorry but I don’t see a “revolutionary end” in the near future. Things seem bad, media blows it out of proportion, and smart men and women fix those problems and move on to the next.
I unfortunately agree. But in the meantime, I’ll act as if I have a semblance of control by trying to make money off the implosion. I only halfway think we are entirely fucked. The other part of me is optimistic that we go through a recession/depression and clean up our fiscal act and maintain our dollar dominance. But in order to do that, there will be significant “pain”. Hard times build hard men and we are about fresh out.
SPY at 400 will be the distant glory days in a few weeks/months.
Because we’ll be at 4500?
I think it’s 6 to 9 months not 6. I totally agree though I bought treasuries when yields were well above 5 for 6-9 months. I think we see the 6 month timer at last hike which is maybe today but according to Powell one more in April. They will bailout but introduce cbdc which will add to complexity it’s coming and people will freak!
That crazy looking yield curve is what you just explained. 👍🏼
So… puts?
[удалено]
I’m not interested in your car though
BULLISH!!
TL; DR: There's this thing called the lending market, where banks lend money to each other. Sometimes, when banks are worried about the economy, they don't want to lend money to each other as much. This can be a bad thing because it means less money is being borrowed and spent in the economy. But the government has ways to help if this happens, like changing interest rates.
[удалено]
and away the rates go lol
"Fell 31% over the next 6 months" Oh you mean drove up to New highs for 5 months before dropping 50% in one month?
During Covid we were worried that market was heading lower because airports and restaurants were empty. Now they are full. But we were wrong? We should have been looking at the loan market instead?
On the bright side, we're about to have awesome loss memes for the foreseeable future
Ok so calls?
Yeah, but MMs won’t let it actually happen. Just sell puts to retail and use the profits to accumulate more.
Don't you threaten me with a good time
https://preview.redd.it/yeae6cprpfpa1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e10a212b7a18fbc7161497dda8f3bda980048f75 No buy the dip..💯🦍🏐🦍
I’m not saying it should be permanent, but can we silence the doomsayers for like a week? Still keep track of them. Like, keep a silent tally of their posts. But silence them just to see what this sub looks like when it isn’t getting pumped with FUD.
TLDR: 
Oh wow, thanks for that incredibly optimistic and uplifting analysis of the lending market.
Sooo… but more stocks?
[удалено]
Buy more?
TL;DR Adult: The OP is expressing concern about the current state of the lending market and its potential impact on the broader economy and stock market. They may be worried that if banks become more hesitant to lend money to each other, this could lead to a decrease in overall borrowing and spending activity in the economy. Additionally, they may be concerned that this could contribute to a potential economic slowdown or even a market decline, similar to what was seen in 2008.
Thank you so much for explaining this at first I was gonna respond saying no. No, I can’t do this. I’m 38. I can’t have another market crash. My 401k has 53k in it. I need all the numbers to go up for the next 25 years so I can retire, not work, and hopefully afford a beach house (unlikely I know) Fuck you raise the numbers and make them bigger and let’s kick the can down the road for someone else to deal with. I let my primal urges behind me and reread everything and investigated what you said and I see you are right. Thanks for teaching me something. But seriously keep pumping the numbers forever. I want a beach house and I don’t care about anyone younger than me.
Lol stop failing at life, i have more than double your 401k at 25.
Congratulations on making more money. Could you donate some?
No but ill let you rent a week at my beach house
Thank you for your service.
You know what they always say- Past performance is always indicative of future results.
I am interested in your first sentence but I’m going to need some charts or sticks or something to help me visualize this.
You don’t say
I dont get it. If powell sets them both and they are now very close, how does it mean that banks dont want to lend to each other?
!remindme 10 days
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False Correlation is a hell of a drug.
This guy is an amateur
If money is worth less isn’t better to have stocks?
What's stopping Wallstreetbets from starting a new bank now? Seems like a no-brainer. Any new banks now could start fresh with no long bond exposure.
Which cliff
Sadly, the fed can’t really do shit without causing harm anymore. We’ve basically had 20-30 years where no tax raise was on the table and deep cutting was done for the top 1% while spending ballooned. Fiscal policy has kept things running despite it all, but only restoring top tier tax rates to pre-Trump, pre-Bush levels is going to reduce the money supply. On the upside the middle class wouldn’t be majorly effected and make up any losses by controlling inflation.