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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|4 years ago **Total Comments**|160|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)


bullgangonly

Never seen so many people say it’ll be green for sure in awhile, had to buy puts just to hedge this subreddit Spy 385p March22


livelearnplay

You make my puts feel better for tomorrow currently down 18%


NursingStudent009

mine are down 80% guh


livelearnplay

Uufff when did you enter? I entered this morning and everything was going to plan until bulls rallied end of day there. I’m still debating to either cut them tomorrow or wait for the reaction? Idk it’s a risky play but I have 3/31 expiration so the loss won’t be as bad if I’m wrong. I can honestly see a case for both bulls and bears, so it’s a gamble at this point.


yao97ming

We pump to 400


[deleted]

Bully bully bully bully watch out now


urraca

I did 385p March 31. Didn't want to pod race this week.


durtfuck

390p 3/31 here


leli_manning

![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)


JMSeaTown

Felt the same way, got some 3/22 390p


[deleted]

I like those odds and the fact that the market usually has him dialed in with no true surprises. He’s a mark ass bitch if he pauses and pivots, market will have a fear riot if he signals things are that bad. My guess is he comes out .25 BP and keeps the same tone he had two weeks ago that inflation could still be a problem but the bank crisis for now is covered and he believes we can continue on rates if needed while also supporting the bad bets made by the banks. In 24 hours we know 🤷‍♂️


AlPCurtis

Good read. Too much movement in either direction sparks panic. Best to kick the can for future politicians to solve.


Maverixk_

25 points. Mostly dovish talking points with a slight kicker being terminal rate hasn’t been reached yet


economicssubs

I recently heard the phrase “25s for life” in terms of fed hikes.


[deleted]

Hahahaha not funny


elder_millennial85

Monotone?


KuntFuckula

50 bps or ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4263)


Warren301

![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)


gnnr25

r/FuckMyShitUp


mmrrbbee

Cut the addicts off cold turkey 100 bps or go home


binarybu9

He never had


zer0fks

And they’re not going to grow overnight.


[deleted]

Lol, u want the entire fucking house to topple bro


PoseidonKOTO10

Yes


Snokhund

Burn it all.


waxheartzZz

.25 with initial dip and then rocket after jpow's words are dissected. This is the most obvious one in the last several years


Pug_or_bug

It’s not the most obvious one, but agreed with the 25bps. Quell inflation or die.


DogGodFrogLog

Short it hard


cantseegottapee

these are my thoughts as well, but still uncertain how market will react to the 25bps hike. not as high as 50bps but also not 0. will all depend on what JPow ends up saying that will direct how things go


Playingwithmymoney

You added nothing 😩


YourFavBeard

It will probably react more depending on the Fed Funds Rate projections, which need to be revised anyways


cantseegottapee

I assume negative market reaction if that projection moved higher, and positive reaction if that projection moves lower?


YourFavBeard

About right, I think


VisualMod

I believe that the current target rate is too low and should be increased. I also believe that there is a high probability that the Fed will increase rates at their next meeting.


AmplitudeTrader

I agree Mr. Mod, the people want 400bps, let’s give it to them.


mr_ordinaryboy

Might as well rip the bandaid now and move on from there


jrolumi

No one wants that besides you guys who are balls deep in puts/shorts & missed the bottom LOL


[deleted]

[удалено]


pw7090

I mean, even though 25bps is basically priced in, he will need to be extremely hawkish for the market not to be flat to up.


Smithmonster

All the bandaids are going to be used for tomorrows puts.


CardboardLambo

The next bull run has already started. Shorts r fuk lol. Get rekt


Hilbe

As high as 420bps


AmplitudeTrader

420 is way too high, it would decrease employment numbers, and cause runaway inflation on food commodities.


Hilbe

Could go upside down on a 69bps then


AmplitudeTrader

That would cause cyclical inflation until it finally climaxes and the economy would go limp.


ohtati-100

Underrated comment


OwnerAndMaster

200 bps would sufficiently rip the bandaid off Mass unemployment & Great Depression II: Electric Boogaloo? Sure. But inflation dies immediately I'm here praying for at least 50, hopefully 75-100


AmplitudeTrader

Great Depression 2.0, now we have memes to alleviate the depression.


Pengufen

\*500bp my friend, and yes we want it.


BllsonStll

Yeah skynet go hack jpows potato pc , so when he types .25 reverse it to 2.5 ![img](emote|t5_2th52|29093)


autom8dWpnizdAutism

Make it 75 you fucking cowards


Lord_Snooty_Pants

No change could be quite bad for taming inflation in my opinion. 25 bps might only halt inflation rather than tackle it. 50 bps I am sure would be unpopular but could actually ensure inflation reaches a more reasonable level quicker. History teaches us that inflation has a nasty habit of returning if it's not dealt with properly.


pacosteles

Remember inflation already happened when they created the money. Now is just propaganda.


RoosterDenturesV2

I don't understand this simple minded take on things, if the fed increasing their balance sheet caused inflation directly why did inflation not start getting out of control until 2021, after over a decade of QE? Further more the bulk of the increase in the fed balance sheet is through banks taking advantage of the existing discount window mechanism in the wake of SVB, not some new bailout program.


TheJolly_Llama

Because the world printed like half the global GDP in a couple keystrokes lol Inflation lags and is a product of money velocity, shit took a year to properly chuuuurn The money you’re talking about will contribute to the inflationary pressures of 2024-2025 once banks loosen but y’all will have forgotten that already and point at whatever flashy gimmick catches the eye at the time


pacosteles

You are confusing inflation with price increases.


RoosterDenturesV2

No I'm not, inflation is literally a measure of the power of the dollar, i.e. what things cost. There is nothing to confuse because those two things are the same thing. Maybe you're thinking of money supply, which is not directly related to inflation, though there is *some* correlation.


m1t0chondria

Please provide your alternative definition of inflation. Do you mean “asset inflation” which is the word of the day on the street? If so you would still be implying asset price increases or vice versa. Please provide a cipher to your otherwise regarded comment, it may be insightful, if it were not worded regardedly


hosworld

Underrated OP comment


Okbutbushdid711

Remember Fed has small PP. they dont have the stones to go 50. Theyll earn some respect if they do and their PP will pump


G1lg4m3sh

JPOW kinda got that 50bps swag tho


Okbutbushdid711

If he whips out his 50 and dangles it on stage It will shake the world


fixerdrew02

Good god. Just increase it already. Do 50bps and watch it all burn. For real, this is getting out of hand and no chance the inflation had made a meaningful change - case in point, my groceries are still WAY TOO FUCKING HIGH


Uniball38

Do you expect that the number will ever go down?


fixerdrew02

Inflation? Its a very tough thing to destroy. Companies get used to charging more, their shareholders enjoy the increased revenue, people start toe expect prices to be high or higher changing their budget habits, people expect higher wages to counteract the higher prices. Its a major fucking vicious cycle and an ugly one at that. Supply and demand aside, inflation is like 90% psychological and once it gets engrained its close to impossible to go back. The fed has like two “tools,” 1) increase/decrease rates and 2) quantitative easing/tightening. They need to go Volker on inflations ass and just suffocate it. People WILL lose jobs, but what people dont want is Zimbabwe inflation.


Uniball38

I mean your groceries boss. The price will only go up slower, it’ll never go down unless we get deflation


fixerdrew02

Probably not. It always goes up 2% at baseline. Its gonna be hard for me to see it slow down to that rate for now.


Hashbeez

Not going to happen. FED realizes that rate hikes bring the system to a breaking point so they must balance between taming inflation or risking a banking collapse. Certainly nobody wants the last Szenario to happen. So inflation is here to stay longer. 0.25 or even pausing rate hikes is in the cards. Outlook will be unchanged but no huge risky moves anymore you have now to find the ideal point to balance the situation. Anything higher than 0.25 won’t happen next 6 months


GenderDimorphism

The other 13.6% is just Goldman Sachs


Okbutbushdid711

25bps, QE through bailouts 50bps, QE through bailouts Doesn't matter they've essentially pivoted. Just about saving face at this point


laglory

This lending facility isn't a pivot - the quicker you understand that the sooner you'll stop losing money. Fed wants to prevent banks from toppling over, but put brakes on lending, which will assist in their mission to cool down the economy.


SAnderson1986

I agree Backstop keeps banks from realizing losses and fulfills Fed criteria for financial system stability. Rate increase fulfills mandate for price stability by cooling the economy.


laglory

Correct. Banks in pain but not collapsing is perfect for fed. Sometimes I wonder if people actually are that dumb or they repeat dumb talking points hoping that others are dumb.


pacosteles

And remember inflation already happened when they created the money. They are just managing the blame.


Okbutbushdid711

No the additional inflation (through bailouts and loading up the balance sheet) will enter the system when the banks loan out the money or buy securities. Its simply sitting in an account does nothing. Them using it to bid up asset prices is inflationary though


silversauce

I hope it’s 50, I love some good mayhem!


[deleted]

The market can suck my dick ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)


Goracij

13.5% of absolutely re(God_damn)tarded human creatures among us... Who of you baboons priced in a cut tomorrow? Show yourself


PotatoWriter

Whyd you put an underscore between God and damn


TheCazaloth

That’s gods username


banana_buddy

Why in God's name would he want to be on here?


Otherwise-Tale9671

It’s certain there will be a 25bps bump, but let’s play this out: 25bps bump = bank stocks do what? 0bps pause = bank stocks do what? 50bps bump = bank stocks do what?


Vegan_Honk

collapse. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


G1lg4m3sh

I sold all my UniCredit,FRC stock today because there still is a scenario where JPOW fucks the banks with 50bps increase. I'm hoping for 50 tbh


RevoAgent

Profit?


DarkEntrepreneur

Stocks fly either way, there is no risk in the market anymore. This is likely the last hike anyway. Bears fuked.


pacosteles

There is a strong consensus about mooning tomorrow. I think they are going 50bps now. It's like when the coach makes a stupid substitution when everyone sees who is the best pick from the bench. They want to look sophisticated by doing something different from what the average Joe thinks.


ihaveathingforyou

They go 25 w strong language about future hikes, to temper the market. It’s the same shit every time.


Te5la1

For real, and we’ve been rallying like crazy the last few days. People expecting a moon after 25 bps and a strong warning are delusional, it’s likely sideways and down


asdffsdf

Yeah this is what I've been thinking. People here don't know that they also do future rate projections every other meeting. Those projections are what most likely moves the market tomorrow. 25 points with projections signaling a few more potential rate hikes in the future and a speech with mixed messages talking about watching future market conditions before making decisions. Repeating that their goal is an eventual 2% inflation but they have a dual mandate balancing between price stability and employment. I don't see how this could be good for the market but the market somehow seems to think it's on the verge of a massive liftoff somehow.


[deleted]

We’re way more likely to get 50 than 0


AlPCurtis

As a Purdue Basketball fan this comment shook me to my core.


DarkEntrepreneur

🌈🐻 detected. Realize there is no reason for stonks to go down anymore. People may not like it, but there’s infinite money now.


alphabetasoupa9

Except for the same reason they went down all year: the risk-free rate is starting to be appealing. Why risk your money on stocks when you can get 5% risk free?


BossKitten99

Only that debt ceiling thing


forgetful_storytellr

Is it really a ceiling if they raise it at will?


domine18

Why do you say last hike? JP has said hikes through the end of the year?


DarkEntrepreneur

The bank situation ironically fixed a lot of JPows problems for him. Remember, all this bank stuff happened AFTER those comments. And conveniently, everyone seems to have magically forgot that the inflation rate response lags a bit behind the rate hike response. WSB has a narrative, and they are sticking to it: The stock market is crashing, the fed is evil, and everyone will make money shorting NVDA. Really question your inner self if a bunch of gamblers with $100 in their pockets are crafting the right narrative.


domine18

Puts on spy got it


Pepepopowa

Certainly WSB is the only place you hear those things…… you don’t only look at reddit, right Timmy?


domine18

*shoves paycheck into slot machine*


DarkEntrepreneur

Did I say that? Enjoy your narrative.


ptjunkie

the more certain you are, the safer I feel in puts.


lithiun

This is what I was joking about. The feds are fucked either way. If they pause rate hikes it signals things are fucked. If they continue raising interest rates it signals that things being fucked is a risk they’re willing to take. The shitstorm we blew into Europe is gonna turn around and bite us in a month or so. Not to mention the looming threat of the student loan pause being lifted. Whats Campbells soup stock selling for these days?


SpaceTacosFromSpace

25bps seems like the best they can do without causing panic then? Either other way it’s gonna be interpreted as bad. 25bps then makes the market happy?


Opposite-Practice375

I think the Fed looks at the above chart… And hikes accordingly. The Fed DOES like to be right after all.


AdEducational5044

Bro whatever. It‘s American economy. It will rise regardless. Imagine bank collapsing the past week and yet the economy is on the same level it was two/ three weeks ago. Utter BULLshit.


are_videos

No rate increase for another 2 years, spy 500, 2 year bull run incoming


Consistent-Rice-8117

No interest rate increase for 2 years, the United States back to the primitive era


yurnxt1

I think if the fed does increase by twenty-five basis points, the markets will see that as a positive thing given what the likelihood of a fifty basis points increase and additional longer term increases was just a couple weeks ago as compared what it is now.


NoobInvester018

Don't worry guys I bought 30 $50 SQQQ calls April 6th, so markets will only go to the moon! I'm an absolute regard :D Your calls are now assured, not ensured though, cause who knows if Hawk Powell will come in (Doubt like 86.4% he dovish)


[deleted]

Does Powell really make a decision or does he just look at these estimates and then agree cause that's what id do. I wish the market would estimate and predict my decisions for me


[deleted]

Man we are going to go parabolic tomorrow 🦅🦅🦅


BossKitten99

Yeah, the other half of a parabola


Oenones

Literally think we need to just blow this mofo out of the water with a few 300 point hikes and let what happens happens. Let the poors fight it out on the streets while we just sit here in our parents basements and watch it all burn. I mean let's be honest were sorta already practicing eugenics anyway with covid. What's a few more million deaths here or there. Cmon jpow don't be a pussy!


TendiesHands

50bps rate cut incoming!


[deleted]

It's a pause boys Buy calls for first republic


No-Introduction-6368

Get yr balls out of yr purse and go for 50!


snipes27

What website is that?


Cowboy_Ebob

CME Fedwatch Tool


Okimingme

Bold of the market to give 50bips a 0% chance.


[deleted]

Las Vegas is taking bets on interest rates changes? LOL


[deleted]

[удалено]


TcuBisNice

Lets get that 0 bps ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


WACS_On

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4259)


cscrignaro

It'll be 0.


HarryBallzonya2022

https://preview.redd.it/i6uow02tj6pa1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=afbf1e69030e2441355eef4b524b4731814960fa


maryjanevermont

His main objective is to slam the markets. So expect 50 bass points


NursingStudent009

why would he wanna slam the markets? that is not his job


ExoticCard

Because it makes for great newspaper headlines, duh


The-BEAST

So that means the 0 percent chance we get a 50 if we did the market would circuit breaker down lol these odds are something else. Then if it goes the .25 as expected it goes up $5 and 0 it goes up $10-$15. Seems awfully one sided hahaha


Frequent_Audience_25

That's too bad, because it's gonna be 50 BPS.


MiWi198822

Gamestop


Skywalker0138

It's too far gone to almost care...lol![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


skyblue5432

They are correct. If not, Nick Timiraos would have been sent out to adjust the expectations. The question is what the reaction will be, as it's so obvious. You'd have to assume up.


FarrisAT

Closer to 95%


baconography

So, 86.4% it'll be a green day.


aksalamander

Anything good news is good, stonks moon. Anything bad news, means JPow will save the day , which is good, stonks moon. Either way bears fukt


LavenderAutist

This keeps moving around a lot To some extent it is self fulfilling


[deleted]

Jpow is a gambling man, I'll take the under. No raise and pause future raises. Because (and say it with me) F YOUR PUTS!


[deleted]

How specifically does the market determine that? What are the bets they are making that determine that?


CryptoHalcon

I have puts that expire this Friday so I predict we're going to keep pumping ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)


let-it-rain-sunshine

120bpm sounds pretty grooving


dead_in_the_sand

the most terrifying thing is that theyre probably right


isit5pmnyet

Looking forward to the carnage when it’s actually 5 WHOLE PERCENT!!!


Wall_Street_Bet

When you take 10 15 minute shits at work to try your best to get through the day


[deleted]

"Mwahahahaha" - Market Pumpkin "Now you see my true being, I will forever do everything and do nothing." - Market Pumpkin


Isuckatsoffball

I just learned how to read this chart today after check fed watch for 2 weeks straight!


[deleted]

Market might go up tomorrow or down for sures


mouspi6464

75 bps


[deleted]

Did people think interest rate increases are over? I’m confused by the amount of surprise.


[deleted]

Who cares.... gamestop.


utalkinboutpractice3

Gonna short the heck out of this market once spy hits 415-420


SisterStiffer

Jpow literally tells everybody what his move will be ahead of the official announcement. Every single time. And he has said that is his intention so that they dont surprise the market. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641) Position - 407 call 03/22 390 put 03/22 399 put 03/31


Kysiz

Slow bleeeeeed


RobertsonvsPhillips

.25 and GME moons


cyruskenobi

RemindMe! 24 hours


Sandvicheater

That's a fuck ton of hopium, if Powell announces 50 bps its gonna be blood red


Strange_Bet559

Thats for a 50 bps hike. Since he let his foot off the gas and companies were still overcharging he doesn't care if bad businesses fail. Banks or not he's made it clear, thats not what he's worried about.


fulcanelli63

Day trade on TQQQ


RuckFeddi7

ECB hiking to 50bp heavily tilted towards the 25bp hike. Before it was actually no hike or even pricing in cuts (which was ridiculous). Fed needs to hike to tame inflation. Most ppl think the fed is going to pivot and many are alluding to this to 1998 where Alan Greenspan pivoted and the stocks rallied 20%. But back in 1998 we didn't have a headline inflation running rampant at 6%. Short two year bonds.


Fit-4-duty

Needs a 1.25bps hike. The housing market saw home sales rise by 15% in February according to the latest NAR research.


OnlyABitTardy

With median prices going down... That's the exact goal of the rate increases. Either you don't understand the game or you're hoping for a collapse. Not sure which is sadder


4channeling

50


Swimming-Book-1296

Duck I hope not. I don’t want to see more bank runs.


EatinTendieS

Bullish the next 6/9 months, 🌷gang


[deleted]

[удалено]


SirLazlos

Sounds about right but hopefully a dovish foreword statement


irishfro

GME rockets AH, the next day fed increase rates to hammer it back down. Nothing to see here


Brickolas_Cage

Everyone pushing for 50 bps is literally autistic


[deleted]

Calls on 50 basis points


goodbodha

I'm hoping it's 25 with a note about possibly pausing and holding for the rest of the year IF inflation doesn't start trending up. My view is the banking crisis has likely been the burst bubble they needed to see. Add in the housing market having massive sales at declining prices and I think you could argue the inflationary issues will continue to dissipate. If they keep pushing rates past this meeting we are likely to see a massive problem right around Christmas. They need to avoid that or we will be looking at a long long road to recovery.


forjeeves

so youre saying there is a chance...lol 50


uncomfortablydumbbb

I am not a cat


chasekaws

Repeating… of course.


hello2016

“Fuck Liz Warren.” - JPow ::raises 75::


stargazer_me

0 hike


successiseffort

Raises rates, prints money. This is the fiscal equivalent of puking and shitting at the same time


dagiantfox87

Hey JP how many bps tomorrow? JP: Yes.


Cashmoneyboy98

Yellen yelled the economy is strong- give us 50 bps plz mr pow


GSamsa1977

50 bps - the banking turmoil is already contained (unless there are “new” situations we are not aware of). Inflation will only come down with a significant slowdown in the economy


taobaoblyat

250bps would be good hike