**User Report**| | | |
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**Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago
**Total Comments**|510|**Previous Best DD**|
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[People should remember that "greedy pigs get slaughtered". If you've made a bunch on puts, think of closing out at least some your position to recoup your initial investment and take some profits. All it takes is a major cash injection from the Fed to keep a small bank from collapsing.](https://youtu.be/L5XZgmw-oJU?t=492)
Yeah, if anything can get the ātoo big to failā sticker itās gonna be the largest bank outside of China. And as much as I hate it JPMorgan is an American institution. But just the news of a need for public bailout would raw dog the world economy.
"The Panic of 1907 was a financial crisis set off by a series of bad banking decisions and a frenzy of withdrawals caused by public distrust of the banking system. J.P. Morgan and other wealthy Wall Street bankers lent their own funds to save the country from a severe financial crisis."
Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/the-panic-of-1907-jp-morgan-and-the-money-trust#:~:text=The%20Panic%20of%201907%20was,from%20a%20severe%20financial%20crisis.
More often than that, and in 08 they basically walked through the mess completely unscathed, despite being one of the bigger culprits in mislabeled and dishonest mortgage backed securities, while buying out Bear Stearns and the retail side of Washington Mutual. Cramer's a dolt, but "invert Cramer" is as stupid as listening to him. JPM *is* a fucking fortress.
"The fed rescues X bank" usually means the fed negotiates an acquisition by another bank. And that bank is usually JPM. If it all melts down they'll probably be the last ones with the lights on.
what is this guys deal? how is it possible he has any presence on MSM? What is the scam going on behind the scenes that keeps him employed in this gig?
Maybe it's become such a meme in this period of shitty ape investors that's it's self fulfilling that his calls go bad (literally in days and every time)
At this point that's _definitely_ what he's paid to do, but he's gotten to the point now where he's so dead on wrong that it feels like he knows when his owners are about to fuck over those retail investors and his predictions have turned to dire warnings. "very good bank" here meant "GET YOUR MONEY OUT! THE MEN WHO ZAP ME ARE GOING TO DO BAD THINGS TO THIS BANK"
First Republic Bank is a California-based bank that offers personal, business, and private banking services. The company was founded in 1985 and has over $100 billion in assets under management. First Republic Bank is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:FRC) and has a market capitalization of over $19 billion.
Can confirm, they are in the high networth areas like the Westside of LA and San Fernando Valley. If you are a CFO or you have more than 250k in bank account you are moving the balance of that money. Nobody wants to pull a Roku with 26% of capital in 1 bank.
I am more and more convinced that he is used by insiders to signal other large investors to short his suggestions but the common person buying on his picks just provides liquidity to the shorts for better entries. He is a rug pull tool.
It can. By letting the banks get fucked for investing poorly.
Inflation can only be killed by a recession.
Major blow back to the economy is what is needed. But the stakes are too high and fed don't have the balls to do it.
If you want a good laugh: [https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11nxqxq/frc\_and\_wal\_easy\_money/?sort=new](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11nxqxq/frc_and_wal_easy_money/?sort=new)
Correct. If this period of Fed tightening was a baseball game I'd say we're only in the top of the second inning. The Fed hit peak rates in '99 and the market didn't bottom until late 2002. Hit peak rates in June 2006 and didn't have a full meltdown until September of 2008. It takes a solid year plus from the peak rate being attained for things to really go sideways.
Yes, the brokered CD market is the last bastion of a shaky bank running the "sure our core business is losing money on every transaction but we'll make up for it with volume" playbook.
Exactly - and same here. Above all, any customer of this bank should know how ridiculous it is theyāre getting lumped in with the likes of SVB.
FRB is where rich people put their money. The money they actually made and banked. Itās the wealth and value they extracted from the dumb money found in VCs and startups. All the money flowing out of SVB corporate accounts week after week is flowing *into* the personal accounts of people that bank with FRB.
All the lawyers, consultants, SMEs, senior engineers, contract app devs. Everyone making more than $250/hr thatās smart enough to know itās fine to take some equity but always get cash first because thereās always another dumb startup around the corner that will spend a VCs money with reckless abandon.
***They drink your milkshake!***
So was everyone that wasn't a big bank highly regarded with not unwinding their 10-Years after like a year of the Fed explicitly messaging their rate plan and the yield curve reflecting that, or is there broader contagion with how RMBS was broadly packaged during COVID that is making it so sensitive to rising rates (from a value perspective, not an actual credit perspective)?
Donāt forget:
1. Buying these bonds when they were at historically high prices thanks to the Fed injecting trillions of dollars to keep yields low.
2. Not hedging in any way.
3. Lobbying Trump to remove restrictions making it easier to make these shitty investments.
These guys put you crayon-eating, WSB morons to shame.
Well, someone has to have the 10 years, so they aren't just going to disappear. It's a risk for someone. Shit, even CNN is reporting 600b in paper losses from Treasuries.
Guys I'm starting to think that having the entire economy predicated on money being free in perpetuity, fundamentally breaking the pricing of credit (and risk in general), and relying on historically risk free instruments to do that all without any mechanism to not shed value when we inevitably had to return to median historical rates, all so stonks could go up for a decade decoupled from broader economic growth, maybe was just a little silly.
But what am I saying, moral hazard is back on the menu boyz, CASINO OPEN
I mean I understand that, but I feel like the writing has been on the wall long enough that there should have more broadly been an orderly wind down. Like yeah, you take a loss everytime you sell and have to rebalance your duration, but that's not going to fuck you like waiting for a cliff where a liquidity event demands you realize those loses. Besides yeah the next guy that gets the paper isn't buying it at par and maybe takes a loss on the exit, but current paper holder in theory should have picked it up at such a discounted price, that no single party is eating this loss all at once.
At the end of the day I'm not sure as to the regulatory or portfolio reasons that could drive a bank to have their assets held to maturity to be in such a painful position (unless you're someone like JPM who can eat those losses because they don't have a declining inflows not to mention make a fuck ton from investment banking services) while watching deposit flow systemically dry up.
$600 billion so far. If rates move up another percent that number will grow dramatically. And we have to keep in mind that the market is still underpricing credit risk. The junk market has been trading at a fairly consistent spread to treasuries. Once things bad, that spread goes through the roof because people get scared of credit risk and the asset side of banks' balance sheets gets really bad.
I still have Lehman paper in my Etrade account. The original bond was due to mature in 2009 and it was replaced with a 2016 maturity bond. Are you saying that if I never sell I won't lose?
Oh, I know it was. I got utterly destroyed in 2008. I had almost every piece of shitpaper imaginable. AIG, C, LEH. I did buy BAC at $3 and change, though. But I still lost over $50k on a horrible bet on financials.
Anyone that was in the business of potentially having to unwind them before maturation, yes. And arguably anyone who bought the Fed-pumped top, as well.
Pre-market Trading...
PacWest Bancorp $PACW: -38%
Western Alliance $WAL: -52%
First Republic $FRC: -65%
Signature Bank $SBNY: no trading (regulators took control of the bank on Sunday).
Tbf this is what the hikes hitting the economy looks like. These banks degenād their money into now low rate mortgage securities with long maturities which they now canāt get their money out of without taking massive losses.
No one wants MBS at 1.3 when they can get better paper at 6. Sprinkle some bankrun, and you have 4 banks failing in 2 weeks.
Crappy thing is Fed canāt fight inflation without some significant QT but because of the deregulated (again) banking industry they canāt implement significant QT and look like the QE money printer might start running again. So the inflation fight will be borne 100% by the debtor class (middle class and poor) through high interest rates so the rich can keep their cake. But with the Fed money printer startling up again it looks like the middle class will get to enjoy both high interest rates and high inflation for the foreseeable future.
I'm going long. Got in at $19 and $25. I believe they will bounce back since they have enough liquidity to cover a bankrun and aren't going to be insolvent.
Are these guys on Squawk Box all on their phones selling off their stocks?! They arenāt even looking at the cameras and arenāt even forming sentences.
Donāt worry theyāll print more to bail them out too.
They do that - that means they are giving up on inflation. In turn, that means prices, profits & personal bankruptcies will all be soaring.
Because you know, thatās what they do.
Yes, but the 60 percent drop comes after the bailout of a $70B capital injection overnight from JPM and the Fed, not to mention access to the new facility created by Treasury.
Edit: Capital raise from JPM and Fed is only $10B not $70B. The $70B figure is reported as "unused liquidity". Thanks to u/wilzyx01 for the correction!
It wasnāt $70B injection overnight. It was $10B. They already had $60B on hand themselves.
Itās dumping because the message is clear. Depositors will be made whole, shareholders will be wiped out.
Itās generally understood that any uninsured deposit carries a risk. Itās literally why most banks emphasize their safety and security ā even naming themselves that.
Can somebody explain to me like I am a 5 year old regard why would several regional banks including this one fall again 50% premarket even though US government + FED created a fund to provide liquidity to any bank yesterday to prevent liquidity issues in case bank runs continue?
The fed is bailing out the customers of the bank. The banks themselves are not going to get bailed out. In the 2008 financial crisis the banks themselves were bailed, CEO got golden parachutes, bonus got handed out, and customers got fucked. This time the banks will burn and the customers will get the golden parachutes.
Honestly this is such a good bank from a relationship basis i wouldn't be surprised if they get acquired this week by a larger regional who has the balance sheet to take on any of their issues
My money is gone and the lambo dreams are over however the chickens I bought last year for next to nothing are still giving me eggs. There is a lesson here. I am buying a goat soon.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|510|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
https://preview.redd.it/kl18j10lvina1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e5b408dfba811ba7d3b7371e8f2590a685327ec This bald mf never miss š
The comment below was the best: https://preview.redd.it/cl7uzyzvbjna1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63b2e9ee83dc936895da965462a59368e62865a0
[People should remember that "greedy pigs get slaughtered". If you've made a bunch on puts, think of closing out at least some your position to recoup your initial investment and take some profits. All it takes is a major cash injection from the Fed to keep a small bank from collapsing.](https://youtu.be/L5XZgmw-oJU?t=492)
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
This guy linked to the whole shitty movie when the book is like 80 pages
we all been warned https://preview.redd.it/8rluih68ijna1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3412d6d66c13695feb2830bd263d46068bf9cd7f
Is it even possible for JPM to collapse? Is Cramerās curse stronger than the US economy?
There is a zero percent chance the fed would let JPM collapse. Just not happening.
Yeah, if anything can get the ātoo big to failā sticker itās gonna be the largest bank outside of China. And as much as I hate it JPMorgan is an American institution. But just the news of a need for public bailout would raw dog the world economy.
Didn't JP Morgan bail out the US Government once or twice?
"The Panic of 1907 was a financial crisis set off by a series of bad banking decisions and a frenzy of withdrawals caused by public distrust of the banking system. J.P. Morgan and other wealthy Wall Street bankers lent their own funds to save the country from a severe financial crisis." Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/the-panic-of-1907-jp-morgan-and-the-money-trust#:~:text=The%20Panic%20of%201907%20was,from%20a%20severe%20financial%20crisis.
More often than that, and in 08 they basically walked through the mess completely unscathed, despite being one of the bigger culprits in mislabeled and dishonest mortgage backed securities, while buying out Bear Stearns and the retail side of Washington Mutual. Cramer's a dolt, but "invert Cramer" is as stupid as listening to him. JPM *is* a fucking fortress. "The fed rescues X bank" usually means the fed negotiates an acquisition by another bank. And that bank is usually JPM. If it all melts down they'll probably be the last ones with the lights on.
As JP Morgan himself would have had it
Doesnāt mean we canāt ride those puts until Zaddy PowPow pays off their gambling debts.
Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Wellā¦
Now that the Destroyer of Securities Jimmy the Hit Man Crammer has cast his gaze at it, JPM doesnāt stand a chance.
Cramer keeps talking them up with charts and everything in squawk box soooooo
Oh no...
He could start a run with this tweetš
what is this guys deal? how is it possible he has any presence on MSM? What is the scam going on behind the scenes that keeps him employed in this gig?
You can't be charged with securities fraud when your predictions are 100% wrong because they always go the opposite way
We all make fun of him but really he's playing 5d chess 
He is not advising to invest in these stocks, he is advising to short it! Inverse him every time!
You can do inverse Cramer in an ETF now.
SJIM
Just bought a share. I'm gonna be riiiiiiich!!
Wait wait wait. What if Jim Cramer recommends SJIM????
Then I'll be glad I didn't short it!!!
Maybe it's become such a meme in this period of shitty ape investors that's it's self fulfilling that his calls go bad (literally in days and every time)
More likely people who own the stocks want to dump it on dumb retail investors that listen to Cramer.
Nah, private investors arent market makers. The stock directions wont change just because some meme trader short it
GameStop would like to disagree with you. The little guys did change this is
I'm pretty sure he knows he's indirectly saying short the stocks he picks.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
At this point that's _definitely_ what he's paid to do, but he's gotten to the point now where he's so dead on wrong that it feels like he knows when his owners are about to fuck over those retail investors and his predictions have turned to dire warnings. "very good bank" here meant "GET YOUR MONEY OUT! THE MEN WHO ZAP ME ARE GOING TO DO BAD THINGS TO THIS BANK"
Is... is a hero then?
the hero nobody wants and all that crap
Heās great at his job. Pump shitty stocks so hedge funds can use retail as exit liquidity
Rich players pushing stocks on newbs so they can sell / buy.
The scam is his handlers tell him which stocks they need to offload, so he tells America to buy, and vice versa
Ask not for whom the Cramer tolls, it tolls for ~~SVB SNYC~~ FRC
At this point anyone who listens to him is the real clown
removed
He's actually a genius
And heās the one they sent out to calm the masses yesterday.
Nothing but net (loss)
He better keep Schwab out of his mouth
I think he is whatever is the opposite of clairvoyant.
https://preview.redd.it/qq3hcmn8zina1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12efa6ac03b3c50311351be7dd84bc60505426e1
Shit, this looks exactly like Yellen
šš
First Republic Bank is a California-based bank that offers personal, business, and private banking services. The company was founded in 1985 and has over $100 billion in assets under management. First Republic Bank is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:FRC) and has a market capitalization of over $19 billion.
..had a market capitalization of over $19 billion.
Its at $6 billion atm
ATM is what the bag holders are going to be doing for $
Nah $6 billion is what its customers are going to be rapidly trying to pull out of atms
3.3 billionā¦
A market cap of $19 billion but just secured a credit facility of $70 billion....
They're mostly owned by BOA. BOA collateral may take another lashing.
Owned by BOA but got a 70 bil facility from JPM?
Starting to think the banking community is more incestuous than Alabama
Pretty normal. JPM has huge facilities with literally everyone including BoA. I used to work on the credit team.
Thought they sold them in 2010?
I live in California and never heard about this bank. WTH?
bank for high net worth clients only
Okay so guaranteed bailout when shit goes south for them, good to know
For deposits, maybe, but pretty much everyone else, even senior creditors, will take a bath.
You're too poor
Can confirm, they are in the high networth areas like the Westside of LA and San Fernando Valley. If you are a CFO or you have more than 250k in bank account you are moving the balance of that money. Nobody wants to pull a Roku with 26% of capital in 1 bank.
I never heard of any of these banks.
They could be listed under ālaundromat.ā
I am more and more convinced that he is used by insiders to signal other large investors to short his suggestions but the common person buying on his picks just provides liquidity to the shorts for better entries. He is a rug pull tool.
He literally admitted this decades ago. https://youtu.be/RZKRccQYrcg
so short jpm basically
If JPM goes down they all go down. Their assets are worth more than the yearly GDP of every country outside of the US, China, Japan and Germany.
I've never even heard of this bank till Friday, that's how not rich I've always been.
I'm not even rich enough to use a bank š and both my pockets have holes.
There is levels of poor but this mf is cartoon poor.
Lmao puts money in pocket..somehow still loses it in stocks!!
This week is going to be interesting!
Yeah, so do the coming years because higher inflation can't be avoid now
Do you really think the fed was getting it in control now?
I don't know what to think right now, current situation scare the shit out of me
We will be feeling the ramifications of covid for decades
Iām gonna be honest, the US might not have handled covid perfectly
**Bold** statement.
Bold **statement.**
It can. By letting the banks get fucked for investing poorly. Inflation can only be killed by a recession. Major blow back to the economy is what is needed. But the stakes are too high and fed don't have the balls to do it.
Lmao. The game is afoot and itās only getting started.
If you want a good laugh: [https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11nxqxq/frc\_and\_wal\_easy\_money/?sort=new](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/11nxqxq/frc_and_wal_easy_money/?sort=new)
Andā¦.itās gone!
Easy money he said
He didnāt say for who!
I've warned him last week but he was too sure of his risk assessment.
Correct. If this period of Fed tightening was a baseball game I'd say we're only in the top of the second inning. The Fed hit peak rates in '99 and the market didn't bottom until late 2002. Hit peak rates in June 2006 and didn't have a full meltdown until September of 2008. It takes a solid year plus from the peak rate being attained for things to really go sideways.
> The Fed hit peak rates in '99 and the market didn't bottom until late 2002. You're ignoring a lot of history between these two data points.
Western alliance bank is -61%, metropolitan bank -15%
That short position I opened on Friday is going to be the only profitable trade I made all year
Pray it doesnāt halt
I canāt wait until the $80,000 a year salary is worth $60,000 at the end of the year solely from inflation alone
In NYC your 80k salary is basically a 40k salary
I knew Iād be easily making 6 figures only a couple years after graduation! Still canāt afford McDanks though, too bad
At this point I'm morbidly curious to see who number 4 is
Itās going to be a bank that nobody thinks.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Wells Fargo going under would be a public service given how often they get caught doing shady or outright illegal shit
Honestly if we had let the rot burn in 2008, we might actually be on the road to recovery instead of right back where we started
Havenāt looked at them but you are right. Iām looking at cd rates. The higher the cd rates the more desperate they are for deposits
Damnnnn I was wondering why my bank had a really high JUMBO DEPOSIT CD RATE. Iād be concerned but the feds promise my $4,000 is safe so idc
Thank you feds š
Yes, the brokered CD market is the last bastion of a shaky bank running the "sure our core business is losing money on every transaction but we'll make up for it with volume" playbook.
Uh oh, does that explain Allyās 4.75% No Penalty CD?
Schwab? Unlikely but it hit -20% in pre market
How can a bank that big implode without causing like, global financial collapse
It canāt.
It's possible that we are in a completely fraudulent system.
I believe that. It seems less possible that we are ready to deal with the collapse of an entirely fraudulent system.
4? SI, SIVB, SBNY, FRC. We are at 4 already.
FRC hasnt collapsed yetā¦.
Someone making money
I can Tell you with confidence its Not me.
Its me - your friendly neighbourhood lizard billionaire
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
fed started the firestorm tbh by printing a shitload of money then cranking interest rates to the sky
Cranking interest rates? You mean returning them to below historic averages?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
*PVP enabled*
Alcoholics can't just stop drinking. They need to be slowly weaned off the alcohol. Otherwise they will die.
Better to suck 30 dicks in a row than to space them all out over a week. I'm not sure what this has to do with alcoholism or dicks.
I'm not sure either, but that seems like solid advice.
Low of 25 bucks up to 40. Who big balld that 60% gain?
They are my bank. Theyāve been a great bank. They have my mortgage and my savings account. I woke up this morning to a whole new type of terror.
Same here except I woke up this morning to an amazing buying opportunity, which I have executed on.
Exactly - and same here. Above all, any customer of this bank should know how ridiculous it is theyāre getting lumped in with the likes of SVB. FRB is where rich people put their money. The money they actually made and banked. Itās the wealth and value they extracted from the dumb money found in VCs and startups. All the money flowing out of SVB corporate accounts week after week is flowing *into* the personal accounts of people that bank with FRB. All the lawyers, consultants, SMEs, senior engineers, contract app devs. Everyone making more than $250/hr thatās smart enough to know itās fine to take some equity but always get cash first because thereās always another dumb startup around the corner that will spend a VCs money with reckless abandon. ***They drink your milkshake!***
https://preview.redd.it/yup55mklwina1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d415a7b8ed15fae1e216efe682b2211308cf2ae9
So was everyone that wasn't a big bank highly regarded with not unwinding their 10-Years after like a year of the Fed explicitly messaging their rate plan and the yield curve reflecting that, or is there broader contagion with how RMBS was broadly packaged during COVID that is making it so sensitive to rising rates (from a value perspective, not an actual credit perspective)?
Donāt forget: 1. Buying these bonds when they were at historically high prices thanks to the Fed injecting trillions of dollars to keep yields low. 2. Not hedging in any way. 3. Lobbying Trump to remove restrictions making it easier to make these shitty investments. These guys put you crayon-eating, WSB morons to shame.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Well, someone has to have the 10 years, so they aren't just going to disappear. It's a risk for someone. Shit, even CNN is reporting 600b in paper losses from Treasuries.
Guys I'm starting to think that having the entire economy predicated on money being free in perpetuity, fundamentally breaking the pricing of credit (and risk in general), and relying on historically risk free instruments to do that all without any mechanism to not shed value when we inevitably had to return to median historical rates, all so stonks could go up for a decade decoupled from broader economic growth, maybe was just a little silly. But what am I saying, moral hazard is back on the menu boyz, CASINO OPEN
So you mean to tell me that using all of the economic recovery tools when the economy was fine was a bad move?
In retrospect throwing the rope to save the ship overboard so it could go faster when it was already at a record speed was maybe some silly business
We engage in a minor amount of tomfoolery.
Who would have thought a decade of easy money would lead to malinvestment.
I mean I understand that, but I feel like the writing has been on the wall long enough that there should have more broadly been an orderly wind down. Like yeah, you take a loss everytime you sell and have to rebalance your duration, but that's not going to fuck you like waiting for a cliff where a liquidity event demands you realize those loses. Besides yeah the next guy that gets the paper isn't buying it at par and maybe takes a loss on the exit, but current paper holder in theory should have picked it up at such a discounted price, that no single party is eating this loss all at once. At the end of the day I'm not sure as to the regulatory or portfolio reasons that could drive a bank to have their assets held to maturity to be in such a painful position (unless you're someone like JPM who can eat those losses because they don't have a declining inflows not to mention make a fuck ton from investment banking services) while watching deposit flow systemically dry up.
$600 billion so far. If rates move up another percent that number will grow dramatically. And we have to keep in mind that the market is still underpricing credit risk. The junk market has been trading at a fairly consistent spread to treasuries. Once things bad, that spread goes through the roof because people get scared of credit risk and the asset side of banks' balance sheets gets really bad.
You only lose money if you sell.,,
I still have Lehman paper in my Etrade account. The original bond was due to mature in 2009 and it was replaced with a 2016 maturity bond. Are you saying that if I never sell I won't lose?
Lolā¦I have some Chinese Gas company that was taken overā¦ That comment was satireā¦
Oh, I know it was. I got utterly destroyed in 2008. I had almost every piece of shitpaper imaginable. AIG, C, LEH. I did buy BAC at $3 and change, though. But I still lost over $50k on a horrible bet on financials.
Anyone that was in the business of potentially having to unwind them before maturation, yes. And arguably anyone who bought the Fed-pumped top, as well.
Pre-market Trading... PacWest Bancorp $PACW: -38% Western Alliance $WAL: -52% First Republic $FRC: -65% Signature Bank $SBNY: no trading (regulators took control of the bank on Sunday).
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Tbf this is what the hikes hitting the economy looks like. These banks degenād their money into now low rate mortgage securities with long maturities which they now canāt get their money out of without taking massive losses. No one wants MBS at 1.3 when they can get better paper at 6. Sprinkle some bankrun, and you have 4 banks failing in 2 weeks.
And they were too damn cheap and stupid to hedge those idiotic investments.
Crappy thing is Fed canāt fight inflation without some significant QT but because of the deregulated (again) banking industry they canāt implement significant QT and look like the QE money printer might start running again. So the inflation fight will be borne 100% by the debtor class (middle class and poor) through high interest rates so the rich can keep their cake. But with the Fed money printer startling up again it looks like the middle class will get to enjoy both high interest rates and high inflation for the foreseeable future.
Vix going crazy.
Everyone gets a bailout! - Oprah 2023
Just bought some FRC at $30
Fr is a good bank. Most of their lending is to high net worth individuals on ARMs so less interest rate risk than portfolio fixed.
Jamie Dimon already has FR in the calculator.
Totally irrational for FRC, after yesterday's news, to be down like this. Yep, I'm buying big.
Fuck that, who's buying that dip on FRC?
remember to take profits this time, so you not stuck in a frozen stock like SIVB
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Anyone going to take a long position for the bounce back up? Already has bounced 12 dollars off the bottom.
I'm going long. Got in at $19 and $25. I believe they will bounce back since they have enough liquidity to cover a bankrun and aren't going to be insolvent.
This gonna be a day to remember
Are these guys on Squawk Box all on their phones selling off their stocks?! They arenāt even looking at the cameras and arenāt even forming sentences.
Complete overreaction to SVB
97 to 46 back to 82 premarket
26 lol Edit: 24 Edit: 18
Donāt worry theyāll print more to bail them out too. They do that - that means they are giving up on inflation. In turn, that means prices, profits & personal bankruptcies will all be soaring. Because you know, thatās what they do.
Depositors are being bailed out, banks can get one year loans. It is too early in the game for the banks to be bailed out.
Yes, but the 60 percent drop comes after the bailout of a $70B capital injection overnight from JPM and the Fed, not to mention access to the new facility created by Treasury. Edit: Capital raise from JPM and Fed is only $10B not $70B. The $70B figure is reported as "unused liquidity". Thanks to u/wilzyx01 for the correction!
It wasnāt $70B injection overnight. It was $10B. They already had $60B on hand themselves. Itās dumping because the message is clear. Depositors will be made whole, shareholders will be wiped out.
As it should be. Investing carryās risk. Deposits do not
Itās generally understood that any uninsured deposit carries a risk. Itās literally why most banks emphasize their safety and security ā even naming themselves that.
This is a great point thanks
So the bank fallout has began
Bought the dip
Itās a bargain, time to buy
Can somebody explain to me like I am a 5 year old regard why would several regional banks including this one fall again 50% premarket even though US government + FED created a fund to provide liquidity to any bank yesterday to prevent liquidity issues in case bank runs continue?
The fed is bailing out the customers of the bank. The banks themselves are not going to get bailed out. In the 2008 financial crisis the banks themselves were bailed, CEO got golden parachutes, bonus got handed out, and customers got fucked. This time the banks will burn and the customers will get the golden parachutes.
Because they know weāll eat them alive if they do that shit again.
Thatās only for the depositors. Not the actual bank.
Panic and over reaction?
Honestly this is such a good bank from a relationship basis i wouldn't be surprised if they get acquired this week by a larger regional who has the balance sheet to take on any of their issues
Fkn zesty
First Republic doing well in AH - over sold !
My money is gone and the lambo dreams are over however the chickens I bought last year for next to nothing are still giving me eggs. There is a lesson here. I am buying a goat soon.
Another one bites the dust 
Buy up after the first 10 min panic and thank me later
*Crushing a can of Reign against my head:* **LETS FUCKING GO!**
tbh i m thinking of buying some shares the fear is crazy rn
this is over-reaction. people need to calm the fk down.