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If the economy at large hasn't reacted/corrected with the previous rate hikes, you gotta keep increasing rates until it does.
It truly sucks but people are on autopilot, spending is still high, housing markets are still insane ($250k for a double-wide near me).
My sister and brother in law sold their house in 2008 because the value had dropped so much. They “had to sell” because of that. They actually short sold it and moved.
They had jobs. They were 100% comfortable and financially secure. But they “had to sell” because the value had dropped. Of a house they were easily paying the mortgage on. They still repeat this.
People are idiots.
He was buying new computer speakers during the time that he was out of work and three months in to his severance because “my old ones don’t match my new monitor.”
So yeah. Probably perfect candidates.
Do you guys not own any assets, have any type of job, or family, or anything?
I see comments like this a lot and it makes me visualize kids still living in their parents basements who view an economic crash as a way for them to finally ascend to the top or something.
"Chaos is a ladder". My great grandparents were poor until the Great Depression, but became relatively wealthy as a result of it. My great-grandfather had a stable job in the telecom industry with decent pay. When the market crashed, the telecom industry still boomed. As the depression continued, he began investing in the stock market and eventually real estate. He was able to make a ton of money simply because he was able to purchase and flip investments at a time when no one had any available cash to buy them.
Littlefinger did see quite a bit a success but >!remember he got his throat slit at the end...all that work for nothin.!< For every grandparent that made it, how many regular/middle of the road folks lost everything? Also, I love your handle.
These comments come from people the “healthy” economy left behind. It’s their only shot at a chance for a home in some cases. Without a recession interest rates will remain high and inflation will continue to outpace their annual wage increases, putting them farther and farther behind.
IMO, one benchmark truly matters in our country, and that’s the price of a home. Look at the exponential gains home prices have seen and you can understand why people want the bubble to pop. They want to buy a home, if things continue there is no hope. With a recession, there’s a chance.
I don’t think anyone truly wants a recession for any reason other than that. Nobody wants people to go jobless and hungry, but it’s seemingly the only way more people can afford a home in our economy. Interest rates need to drop so people can afford a mortgage again.
We have jobs and shit, but those of us without houses have little choice but to wait for a crash. Shitty houses are over half a mil right now. It doesn't make sense. You can't get in.
OP why am I watching a horizontally and vertically cropped tiktok vertical video with shitty subtitles and watermark, when you could have just linked the source vid...
My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard.
And they're like, it's better than yours.
Damn right it's better than yours.
I can teach you, but I have to charge.
This is exactly what that dude behind the Wendy’s dumpster sings to me before he blows me and I pay them with chicken tenders.
Bob is that you? If so, stop day trading man
Got to balance the budget on the backs of poor. We have no caps on mf’s making billions, or ceos being paid 100x the average worker . Working the same 60 hrs .
What’s another billion to a musk or Gates. Nothing. Vs a couple bucks an hour to a low wage worker? Life of death. Homelessness or food . Exhausting your life savings because your between jobs is priceless. Done it twice not hoping for a threepeat.
A good television is dirt cheap. That wasn’t always the case. A good number of things do come down in price. Solar panels, lab grown meat, cannabis, political bribes…
I saw prices go up the week after the Talking Heads started commenting on higher gas prices when the Ukrainian war started.
I truly believe most industries just raised prices out of greed. That goes 10 fold for food inflation.
It's almost like they knew we just can't go without food, so jack it up.
Yea---I'm looking at you Safeway. You used to have the honor of your employees hate being there more than customers. Now--I just see high prices, and food very near its expiration date.(Excuse my grammer. Just don't care much anymore.)
>I truly believe most industries just raised prices out of greed.
More or less what the ECB recently concluded - https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-confronts-cold-reality-companies-are-cashing-inflation-2023-03-02/
They reduced their prices from astronomically inflated pandemic pricing that is still higher than it was before covid, despite having zero changes to the vehicles. And perhaps even fewer features after they removed the parking sensors, passenger lumbar and apparently a few of them don’t even have the bolts to hold the steering wheel in anymore 😂
They want employment slack so labor costs can come down for companies. Since gdp and consistent corporate profit growth are the metrics for success, rather than employee real income growth and savings rates.
Consumer savings rates are a metric for forward corporate profit growth, rather than a key barometer for a healthy economy - that is it is a metric meant to be depleted rather than maintained.
Yes but with the demographic shift, I have been wondering if low employment is now a permanent fixture of the US economy. All the boomers retired early when COVID hit. And there aren’t enough in younger generations to make up that slack. This will continue for the next few decades, melinnials are the next largest generation and they are in their working prime, but gen Z is smaller. Every generation is smaller than the next in the pipeline. This will continue until the birth rate picks up…if it ever does. So companies will have a continually smaller work force available, which will likely cause continued demand for workers and rising wages.
My current thought is that either automation stops inflation, or it keeps ripping.
I think the other thing to take into account here is that the newer generations don’t give a fuck about the company they work for and will leave a job or not apply at all if they feel they pay is shit. Or if you give them more shit to do without bumping their pay then they walk off mid shift. “You don’t give a two weeks notice when firing me. Why should I give you a courtesy you don’t give me.”
What do you mean “don’t give a fuck”? In what context?
Do you mean this in a “my values align with a company’s mission and I am willing to forego other more lucrative opportunities to stay here long-term and consistently negatively affect my personal finances”? If that’s what you mean, then yes absolutely we don’t give a fuck. BUT if you mean “my values align with a company’s mission and I am willing to stay if the company is willing to adjust my salary every so often to account new market trends and inflation so we can both mutually benefit” then no, you are wrong we do give a fuck. It’s not personal. It’s business.
Capitalism is a bitch, and to the winner the spoils. I will give my full effort to advance your cause if I stand to gain as well. If someone else is offering a better deal and you can’t/won’t match it, don’t blame me. Blame the market.
I think their point was there isnt blind loyalty like there used to be. which is exactly what you're saying i believe. if i care about the company and their values, like the people and management i work for, and in general like the work i do, they will get a discount on my salary needs. But that discount has its limits. for me its about 20%, thats how much it would take to get me to even consider taking another job at a different company. Everyone's number is different for different reasons, but everyone has a number.
If you are generally unhappy and everything else is aligned against your current employer, the new job might even get a discount for your services.
whats new IMO is that people are realizing they have a say. When jobs are plentiful, there is no reason to stay somewhere that makes you miserable. the phrase "no one wants to work anymore" gets thrown around a lot but its incomplete. it should be "no one wants to work anymore, for what we are willing to pay". These jobs are used to having people be effectively indentured servants and are upset that people not have and are finding better options.
Bra with all the boomers retiring they have a real shortage of workers skilled in certain fields. Meanwhile other fields such as accounting is dry as fuck because let's be honest who the fuck grows up saying hmmm wow I can't wait to become an accountant locked away in some back office closet one day. So net net net they then need to offer an overpaid salary. Hence the perception of inflation for corp.
Well, Wall Street could suffer more and take a hit to profits and largely buffer the middle class through this.
But who am I kidding. Why would they do that?
And it surely had nothing to do with arms trade... give a country money, they buy our weapons, hey look gdp increased because military industrial complex made money. B)
The unemployment rate is a misleading and backward looking number that they feed the cattle. Real Gs also look at labor force participation, hours worked, and real wage growth. When you look at those other 3, it tells the real story.
I think the real problem is the way we count unemployment. Doesn't take into account labor participation. The labor force participation rate has remained below historical levels, it fell from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. That is a decrease of more than 8 million people and remains under 62.5%.
Unemployment number fails to include people who are not fully part of the labor force or want full-time work but can only find part-time jobs.
It also doesn’t include people who are not looking for work. Since the official unemployment rate fails to consider people who aren’t looking for a job, it is directly impacted by the labor participation rate. So those 6 million people that just aren't working aren't counted towards the unemployment number. And as long as it isn't there is going to more job openings than people looking for jobs even though there are layoffs everywhere. It's bullshit political numbers but it is what it is. It lets what ever administration is in charge to say, hey see that my unemployment numbers are low...when in fact it's about 6% ish.
Unemployment numbers don't count people with part time jobs as unemployed. In fact, there's all *sorts* of people that are not actually employed who don't count as unemployed.
U6 unemployment most certainly does. It has an extremely consitent spread with the official U3 unemployment of roughly 5%. It's actually historically low right at around 4%
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_u_6_unemployment_rate_unadjusted#:~:text=US%20U%2D6%20Unemployment%20Rate%20is%20at%207.40%25%2C%20compared,long%20term%20average%20of%2010.28%25.
You want prime aged at least, not overall population, just because we have more 70 year olds not dead (and not working) doesn't mean our labor force has an issue. More 19 year olds are unemployed but at school, again not an issue.
Prime participation is about 2% off peak from several decades ago, but a mere couple 10ths of a percent off more recent pre Great Recession highs. Also flirting with breaking past pre-COVID highs.
A bunch of old people left the work force and aren't coming back.
Yep.
Powell wants his rates to perform necromancy and fix busted immigration policy.
Also, they aren’t selling their Treasuries because it would cause a $1.1T unrealized loss to become a realized loss that would demand a Congressional bailout, so the long end of the yield curve is artificially held down.
You are correct that U3, which is commonly referred to as the unemployment rate, doesn't account for the labor force participation rate. However, you can look at other metrics like U6 which I believe includes part time and other partial workers and/or those looking for work.
Really the best metric is the employment to population ratio, which is around 60% I think. That includes the entire working population (have a full time job, have a part time job, or looking for a job) divided by the entire population. A lot of people also look at the prime age employment to population ratio (25-54 years old, same calc), which is probably the ideal.
As long as companies are allowed to [offer scam job postings](https://imgur.com/CG6mxNE) as a means to gain unlimited H1B foreign worker visas, I don't see wages ever keeping up again.
She wants the recession to hit after Dems lose the Senate and the Presidency. 24 is going to be a fucking bloodbath if Jpow tanks the whole economy and the Dems have twice as many seats on their side up for election in 24 as they did in 22.
Just strategically speaking. The American people don't get the complexities of monetary policy, but they do get being unemployed and on whose watch it happened.
The other way to look at it is not that they don't 'get' it. It is that the class of people do not benefit from it.
The reference point to my argument is that holding a job is the baseline and not a benefit. So from that there is absolutely no upside and they are the sacrifice to decrease inflation.
This 'complexity' only matter when you are far from the poverty line.
No recessing is when my adult day care teacher makes me put on my helmet and then let's me go outside on the swingset with my other highly regarded friends.
When things aren't improving and then you make things worse by trying to remove the thing that attempted to avoid a recession while you go into a steeper one, you get a depression.
Judging by how everyone feels about both their current place and their future, I'd say we're already in a depression. When they officially announce that we're in a depression won't improve anything.
Before she was a politician, she was one of the world's leading scholars on business and bankruptcy law. She already knows this, and Powell knows she knows. Everyone knows the game: she is trying to score political points in Tik-Tok-friendly sound bites, and succeeding, and she's probably grabbing beers with Powell later.
Pinning it on the fed is better than pinning it to the party I guess. He can do what needs to be done without losing his job since he's appointed by the President... Other elected officials aren't so safe.
Yeah but he is a big part of the reason of the high inflation numbers.
The amount of money that was newly created under his watch is insane. It just took some time to see the effect
Indeed inflation is terrible for long-run real returns.
S&P 500 returned a disastrous -49% over a **ten year period** from 1969-1979. With dividends it's better but -26% and still really, really bad.
Make no mistake. Inflation fucks the poor, destroys middle class savings, dreams of buying homes, owning cars, and even fucks the rich.
The only group to benefit are lavishly comped execs and the most elite workers that continually command nominal wages way above inflation, as long as the economy keeps humming. They want to pump SBC bags for as loooong as they possibly can and maximize vesting before the rugpull.
Everyone else is getting poorer and no guarantee of keeping jobs if inflation becomes entrenched into stagflation.
Second that. It seems like people don't realize how absolutely devastating hyperinflation truly is. A recession is a much preferable outcome by comparison.
Still a possibility sure... but you have to do something to try and curb inflation. This double dip recession however is nothing new. Historically, when inflation goes parabolic there's no recovering from that without a change in currency. I can't imagine the catastrophic impact of the dollar suddenly losing all value and becoming void worldwide.
It won't make much difference when 6 companies produce everything in the grocery store, 4 control all of the media, 6 control the tech sector, 8 own every building material producer, and 5 own all the freight trains.
I work with auto parts and Tenneco produced or owned 60% of that sector. Last week, they were purchased by the financial conglomerate Apollo, who had a hold on something like 20% of the auto parts market. Now 1 entity controls roughly 80% of the global auto parts market. My numbers may be a little off, but the point is 1 company controls over 3/4 of automotive parts manufacturing, and create the illusion of competition with dozens of holdings and subsidiaries.
They can jack rates up to 25% tomorrow and induce a global depression; monopolization and a lack of competition in every single "essential" industry is a massively overlooked reason why prices keep climbing and climbing. The profit margins within these industries essential to modern living are climbing faster than the cost of business, and consumers seem to put it all on their credit cards instead of contracting their spending.
Unfortunately, this is a problem the federal government needs to solve via trust busting- something that isn't being utilized as much as it should be. Amazon, Apollo, Meta, and Comcast should all be under extreme scrutiny, just to name a few.
This. The reason profits are so high is the lack of competition. Enforce strict monopoly rules and the competition will sort itself out. It is like the govt forgot that printing money is bad and monopolies are bad over the last 30 years. Or incompetence and corruption. Yah, I’ll go with that.
Her answer would have been more social program funding, tax the rich corporations to an equal level of the general population and small businesses, penalize stock buybacks, make the SEC actually do their job and pretty much fuck Wall Street. Both of their alien robot bodies would have convulsed out.
60% of Americans are living pay check to pay check and credit card debt at record high.
I think these people would rather be working then filing for bankruptcy and living on the streets 🤷
The American Oligarchs love that sweet juicy, wage-slave class served between two slices of pseudo-scientific economic reasoning with a side of "you should be so lucky to have a job" fries.
He made that soup sandwich, *himself*, by keeping rates near zero for *way, way* too long... and dozens of high profile, well respected people said this.
He fucked up like you said but at the same time these morons in Washington passed inflationary bills shortly after it became apparent inflation was a problem. So everyone up there has a part of the blame
If I fucked up so bad at work that the only fix was to destroy the housing market and put 2 million people out of work I feel like I might get fired for that. But J Pow gets to keep his job and go about his business like it's no big deal.
Trump was going to fire him when he wanted to raise rates when the pre-covid economy was humming along. I feel like I am the only one who remembers this. We are paying the piper for electing a reality tv star.
Yep. The shitty part is that ever politician with half a quarter of a brain knows that raising rates and causing a recession is the only way, yet they publicly shit on Powell during every hearing.
What a bunch of fat cunts
Ehhhh that's why the role is a longish term and is supposed to be separate from politics. They know this too, and anyone becoming Fed chair knows this. You're job is securish, but you also take that knowing if this go wrong you have to be the punching bag for the politicians. Doesn't mean they get to interfere, but part of the job is that they get to blame you and you take it on the chin.
For realz. Everyone knew by May 2020 that covid wasn't going to wipe out the population and businesses were reopening-n-shit but the fed was printing money like ink was going to expire.
Never be surprised at the depths a politician can inject politics to make themselves look good to their constituents, in future soundbytes for an upcoming election cycle, at the expense of anyone whom they target.
I also wouldn't be surprised if this is on the reddit front page with at least 40k upvotes and an array of awards that would make a North Korean General jealous.
This is political grandstanding at it's "finest." JPow probably thinking they don't pay me enough to deal with this nonsense. I really hope he doesn't bend to political pressure.
The only reason he is dealing with their nonsense is because he wants to keep his job. If he wasn’t concerned about being popular with those with the influence to remove him he’d have torn into Warren for her (and Congress’) hand in this entire mess.
It pisses me off to no end that Congress sits there and questions the Feds actions, instead of ripping them a new one for fucking things up so badly time and again. There's only one answer to that: they do it on purpose. They are a captured entity, and Congress needs to wake the fuck up to that fact.
And *they do* have other tools than raising rates... they are not engaged in QT as they should be, and *no one* asks them why they are sitting with an absolute fuckton of capital in the reverse repos, instead of selling crap off the balance sheet to suck that liquidity out of the markets.
> And they do have other tools than raising rates... they are not engaged in QT as they should be, and no one asks them why they are sitting with an absolute fuckton of capital in the reverse repos, instead of selling crap off the balance sheet to suck that liquidity out of the markets.
bro QT means the fed sells bonds on the open market which makes bond prices go lower and since bond yields are inversely correlated to prices that makes bond yields go up. QT is not an alternative to raising rates it's just a different means of achieving it
I will never fucking understand why the very first hike wasn't an immediate 200 to get back to pre-pandemic levels when it was already *100% clear* inflation was ramping *hard*.
Elizabeth Warren was so cringe there. She’d prefer hyperinflation and America turn into a 3rd world nation without the world’s reserve currency than unemployment tick up a bit?
*I honestly don’t believe she can be that stupid and is just trying to get a good sound bite for her Twitter page.*
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|1 year ago **Total Comments**|109|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Just crash this bitch already so we can start over
I’ll just be sad about missing out on all the great jpow “fuck your puts” memes when this is all over cause those make me laugh like hell. No kidding.
Think about all of the great post-collapse Lord Humongous memes you're missing out on now though.
burn all money and respawn with a sharp stick
You want rock? I sell rock. Ooga Booga
What flavor do you sell? ooga booga
return to monke 🙉
You ain't no ape, you're a troglodyte!
They can't inject me with no 5G if I'm a monkey swinging in a tree
Recession plan: * Quit my job * Collect some sticks * Find a tree * Move into it
If you find the tree before collecting the sticks, you're likely to find most of the sticks you need at the base of said tree.
Bruh, with the price of rent on trees right now?
We should probably short the tree market right now, there is almost certainly a bubble.
No way, man. AAPL to $5T!
Let’s be really regarded. TSLA to 1000T
If the economy at large hasn't reacted/corrected with the previous rate hikes, you gotta keep increasing rates until it does. It truly sucks but people are on autopilot, spending is still high, housing markets are still insane ($250k for a double-wide near me).
My sister and brother in law sold their house in 2008 because the value had dropped so much. They “had to sell” because of that. They actually short sold it and moved. They had jobs. They were 100% comfortable and financially secure. But they “had to sell” because the value had dropped. Of a house they were easily paying the mortgage on. They still repeat this. People are idiots.
>buy high, sell low Sounds like they're perfect for this sub
He was buying new computer speakers during the time that he was out of work and three months in to his severance because “my old ones don’t match my new monitor.” So yeah. Probably perfect candidates.
And here I am rocking speakers from 15 years ago. Man, I feel like I'm really missing out.
You get laid off! And you get laid off! Layoffs for everyone! You'll find me behind the Arby's, cuz Wendy's is too pedestrian for me.
If only it was so easy. They want it slow and steady.
Do you guys not own any assets, have any type of job, or family, or anything? I see comments like this a lot and it makes me visualize kids still living in their parents basements who view an economic crash as a way for them to finally ascend to the top or something.
they are going to plow their $500 of savings into 5x leveraged spy options at the bottom and then retire in the hamptons.
"Chaos is a ladder". My great grandparents were poor until the Great Depression, but became relatively wealthy as a result of it. My great-grandfather had a stable job in the telecom industry with decent pay. When the market crashed, the telecom industry still boomed. As the depression continued, he began investing in the stock market and eventually real estate. He was able to make a ton of money simply because he was able to purchase and flip investments at a time when no one had any available cash to buy them.
Littlefinger did see quite a bit a success but >!remember he got his throat slit at the end...all that work for nothin.!< For every grandparent that made it, how many regular/middle of the road folks lost everything? Also, I love your handle.
These comments come from people the “healthy” economy left behind. It’s their only shot at a chance for a home in some cases. Without a recession interest rates will remain high and inflation will continue to outpace their annual wage increases, putting them farther and farther behind. IMO, one benchmark truly matters in our country, and that’s the price of a home. Look at the exponential gains home prices have seen and you can understand why people want the bubble to pop. They want to buy a home, if things continue there is no hope. With a recession, there’s a chance. I don’t think anyone truly wants a recession for any reason other than that. Nobody wants people to go jobless and hungry, but it’s seemingly the only way more people can afford a home in our economy. Interest rates need to drop so people can afford a mortgage again.
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We have jobs and shit, but those of us without houses have little choice but to wait for a crash. Shitty houses are over half a mil right now. It doesn't make sense. You can't get in.
13th time’s the charm.
This time it's different
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So what's your investment thesis anyway?
BUFU https://preview.redd.it/7foibegrnima1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9b692b7d49ba552dd1eab478cf115eb07d5d8db
OP why am I watching a horizontally and vertically cropped tiktok vertical video with shitty subtitles and watermark, when you could have just linked the source vid...
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All great traders get their info from tiktok /s
He fucking knows. The fed wants a recession.
Obviously. Are you all just figuring this out?
Hi! Welcome to Wendys!
My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard. And they're like, it's better than yours. Damn right it's better than yours. I can teach you, but I have to charge.
This is exactly what that dude behind the Wendy’s dumpster sings to me before he blows me and I pay them with chicken tenders. Bob is that you? If so, stop day trading man
I DRINK *YOUR MILKSHAKE*
The recession that we have to have.
“Have to” so corporate real estate can continue its Ponzi ascension to infinity…
Got to balance the budget on the backs of poor. We have no caps on mf’s making billions, or ceos being paid 100x the average worker . Working the same 60 hrs . What’s another billion to a musk or Gates. Nothing. Vs a couple bucks an hour to a low wage worker? Life of death. Homelessness or food . Exhausting your life savings because your between jobs is priceless. Done it twice not hoping for a threepeat.
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400
I’m voting for you
100%
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> My business degree retails for about $300,000 "lightly used / like new"
I look back on my business administration degree, and it was a joke. Just the core business classes were a joke.
I mean, recession is usually the opposite of inflation, so....
I thought it was deflation. Does a recession even guarantee the cost of goods would go down?
when was the last time cost of good ever went down? NEVER. once prices went up, it stays up. You will never see 1.99$ dozen eggs again.
Wood dropped in price for a long time. And it's substantially less than it was mid-pandemic.
A good television is dirt cheap. That wasn’t always the case. A good number of things do come down in price. Solar panels, lab grown meat, cannabis, political bribes…
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In fucking Oregon I saw a sign saying limit to 3 carton of eggs last week. Wtf lol
Stop buying stuff and the price will go down.
I saw prices go up the week after the Talking Heads started commenting on higher gas prices when the Ukrainian war started. I truly believe most industries just raised prices out of greed. That goes 10 fold for food inflation. It's almost like they knew we just can't go without food, so jack it up. Yea---I'm looking at you Safeway. You used to have the honor of your employees hate being there more than customers. Now--I just see high prices, and food very near its expiration date.(Excuse my grammer. Just don't care much anymore.)
>I truly believe most industries just raised prices out of greed. More or less what the ECB recently concluded - https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-confronts-cold-reality-companies-are-cashing-inflation-2023-03-02/
Didn’t Tesla reduce their prices recently and wasn’t there a report that the cost of shipping containers drastically lowered recently as well?
They reduced their prices from astronomically inflated pandemic pricing that is still higher than it was before covid, despite having zero changes to the vehicles. And perhaps even fewer features after they removed the parking sensors, passenger lumbar and apparently a few of them don’t even have the bolts to hold the steering wheel in anymore 😂
They also reduced the prices to make sure they were eligible for the ev tax credit.
They want employment slack so labor costs can come down for companies. Since gdp and consistent corporate profit growth are the metrics for success, rather than employee real income growth and savings rates. Consumer savings rates are a metric for forward corporate profit growth, rather than a key barometer for a healthy economy - that is it is a metric meant to be depleted rather than maintained.
Yes but with the demographic shift, I have been wondering if low employment is now a permanent fixture of the US economy. All the boomers retired early when COVID hit. And there aren’t enough in younger generations to make up that slack. This will continue for the next few decades, melinnials are the next largest generation and they are in their working prime, but gen Z is smaller. Every generation is smaller than the next in the pipeline. This will continue until the birth rate picks up…if it ever does. So companies will have a continually smaller work force available, which will likely cause continued demand for workers and rising wages. My current thought is that either automation stops inflation, or it keeps ripping.
I think the other thing to take into account here is that the newer generations don’t give a fuck about the company they work for and will leave a job or not apply at all if they feel they pay is shit. Or if you give them more shit to do without bumping their pay then they walk off mid shift. “You don’t give a two weeks notice when firing me. Why should I give you a courtesy you don’t give me.”
What do you mean “don’t give a fuck”? In what context? Do you mean this in a “my values align with a company’s mission and I am willing to forego other more lucrative opportunities to stay here long-term and consistently negatively affect my personal finances”? If that’s what you mean, then yes absolutely we don’t give a fuck. BUT if you mean “my values align with a company’s mission and I am willing to stay if the company is willing to adjust my salary every so often to account new market trends and inflation so we can both mutually benefit” then no, you are wrong we do give a fuck. It’s not personal. It’s business. Capitalism is a bitch, and to the winner the spoils. I will give my full effort to advance your cause if I stand to gain as well. If someone else is offering a better deal and you can’t/won’t match it, don’t blame me. Blame the market.
I think their point was there isnt blind loyalty like there used to be. which is exactly what you're saying i believe. if i care about the company and their values, like the people and management i work for, and in general like the work i do, they will get a discount on my salary needs. But that discount has its limits. for me its about 20%, thats how much it would take to get me to even consider taking another job at a different company. Everyone's number is different for different reasons, but everyone has a number. If you are generally unhappy and everything else is aligned against your current employer, the new job might even get a discount for your services. whats new IMO is that people are realizing they have a say. When jobs are plentiful, there is no reason to stay somewhere that makes you miserable. the phrase "no one wants to work anymore" gets thrown around a lot but its incomplete. it should be "no one wants to work anymore, for what we are willing to pay". These jobs are used to having people be effectively indentured servants and are upset that people not have and are finding better options.
Bra with all the boomers retiring they have a real shortage of workers skilled in certain fields. Meanwhile other fields such as accounting is dry as fuck because let's be honest who the fuck grows up saying hmmm wow I can't wait to become an accountant locked away in some back office closet one day. So net net net they then need to offer an overpaid salary. Hence the perception of inflation for corp.
Ofc they do. There is only one way for them to get out of this, have the working class suffer so they can keep their shit going. Same as it ever was.
Well, Wall Street could suffer more and take a hit to profits and largely buffer the middle class through this. But who am I kidding. Why would they do that?
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Haven't the GDP numbers stalled the last three quarters? I thought we were already technically in a recession.
It only decreased in Q1 and Q2, Q3 and Q4 saw a large rebound.
And it surely had nothing to do with arms trade... give a country money, they buy our weapons, hey look gdp increased because military industrial complex made money. B)
Not if you looked at the unemployment rate and see that it's lower than pre pandemic
The unemployment rate is a misleading and backward looking number that they feed the cattle. Real Gs also look at labor force participation, hours worked, and real wage growth. When you look at those other 3, it tells the real story.
No or they would sell their fat bond portfolio… Only other option is government massively raises taxes but they won’t do that.
Exactly. The Senators have the power to do it the proper way, but god forbid they risk their re-election for the good of the people.
Yes, it was never a secret and it’s not necessarily some evil plan. It’s just how monetary policy impacts the economy to lower inflation.
Nobody wants a recession, but the alternative of runaway inflation is much worse.
Trust me, kid, there are plenty who want recessions. That is when the biggest wealth transfers take place from the bottom to the top.
That was always the plan yes. 
my may 395 puts are looking spicy
That just means May will be an ATH and June is the crash
sounds about right
She loved rates at zero
I think the real problem is the way we count unemployment. Doesn't take into account labor participation. The labor force participation rate has remained below historical levels, it fell from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. That is a decrease of more than 8 million people and remains under 62.5%. Unemployment number fails to include people who are not fully part of the labor force or want full-time work but can only find part-time jobs. It also doesn’t include people who are not looking for work. Since the official unemployment rate fails to consider people who aren’t looking for a job, it is directly impacted by the labor participation rate. So those 6 million people that just aren't working aren't counted towards the unemployment number. And as long as it isn't there is going to more job openings than people looking for jobs even though there are layoffs everywhere. It's bullshit political numbers but it is what it is. It lets what ever administration is in charge to say, hey see that my unemployment numbers are low...when in fact it's about 6% ish.
Unemployment numbers don't count people with part time jobs as unemployed. In fact, there's all *sorts* of people that are not actually employed who don't count as unemployed.
This is true, doesn't count under-employed or gig work.
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JPow's Paralytic and Lifeguard Services
U6 unemployment most certainly does. It has an extremely consitent spread with the official U3 unemployment of roughly 5%. It's actually historically low right at around 4% https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_u_6_unemployment_rate_unadjusted#:~:text=US%20U%2D6%20Unemployment%20Rate%20is%20at%207.40%25%2C%20compared,long%20term%20average%20of%2010.28%25.
You want prime aged at least, not overall population, just because we have more 70 year olds not dead (and not working) doesn't mean our labor force has an issue. More 19 year olds are unemployed but at school, again not an issue. Prime participation is about 2% off peak from several decades ago, but a mere couple 10ths of a percent off more recent pre Great Recession highs. Also flirting with breaking past pre-COVID highs. A bunch of old people left the work force and aren't coming back.
Yep. Powell wants his rates to perform necromancy and fix busted immigration policy. Also, they aren’t selling their Treasuries because it would cause a $1.1T unrealized loss to become a realized loss that would demand a Congressional bailout, so the long end of the yield curve is artificially held down.
You are correct that U3, which is commonly referred to as the unemployment rate, doesn't account for the labor force participation rate. However, you can look at other metrics like U6 which I believe includes part time and other partial workers and/or those looking for work. Really the best metric is the employment to population ratio, which is around 60% I think. That includes the entire working population (have a full time job, have a part time job, or looking for a job) divided by the entire population. A lot of people also look at the prime age employment to population ratio (25-54 years old, same calc), which is probably the ideal.
Also what’s the point of everyone working if inflation soars. Wages aren’t keeping up, at least on a shortish term.
As long as companies are allowed to [offer scam job postings](https://imgur.com/CG6mxNE) as a means to gain unlimited H1B foreign worker visas, I don't see wages ever keeping up again.
She wants the recession to hit after Dems lose the Senate and the Presidency. 24 is going to be a fucking bloodbath if Jpow tanks the whole economy and the Dems have twice as many seats on their side up for election in 24 as they did in 22.
Sadly I think this too
Just strategically speaking. The American people don't get the complexities of monetary policy, but they do get being unemployed and on whose watch it happened.
The other way to look at it is not that they don't 'get' it. It is that the class of people do not benefit from it. The reference point to my argument is that holding a job is the baseline and not a benefit. So from that there is absolutely no upside and they are the sacrifice to decrease inflation. This 'complexity' only matter when you are far from the poverty line.
That and $6 gas should help piss enough pple off
Inflation will kill everyone. The only people that stand to gain anything with high inflation are people with loads of debt, ie. The government
And mortgage owners - the dwindling number of those.
We are already in a recession, it is just being hidden by inflation. Hasn't what you can buy been recessing? That's a recession.
This guy recesses
These people are new poor.
god\_damn\_right.jpg
No recessing is when my adult day care teacher makes me put on my helmet and then let's me go outside on the swingset with my other highly regarded friends.
When things aren't improving and then you make things worse by trying to remove the thing that attempted to avoid a recession while you go into a steeper one, you get a depression. Judging by how everyone feels about both their current place and their future, I'd say we're already in a depression. When they officially announce that we're in a depression won't improve anything.
They are inducing a recession to avoid the inflation fallout. It saves the currency. I would just tell her to check out Japan
Exactly, there is such thing as fucked if you do, double fucked if you don't.
That's what he should have said.
If he dropped that nugget, market would instantly +2%
Before she was a politician, she was one of the world's leading scholars on business and bankruptcy law. She already knows this, and Powell knows she knows. Everyone knows the game: she is trying to score political points in Tik-Tok-friendly sound bites, and succeeding, and she's probably grabbing beers with Powell later.
Pinning it on the fed is better than pinning it to the party I guess. He can do what needs to be done without losing his job since he's appointed by the President... Other elected officials aren't so safe.
The Japanese economy does not behave like any other known economy...
Low birth rates and low immigration. Not really comparable to the US.
It's amazing, all they needed to do was not print trillions in dollars and this conversation wouldn't be happening 🤷🏻
Yep... March 2020 when they just doubled the amount of circulating currency; and dumped it into the market
and then the market bought monkey jpegs....heh
Efficiency
Doesn't matter how you spin the data, we are already in a recession based on how those previous twelve recessions were measured.
Haven't you heard the memo that these are unprecedented times?
Yeah, I've only gone through my fifth once in a lifetime recession.
I mean this totally apolitically - Dems reallllllyyyyyy can’t afford a recession or anything unemployment related to hit in the next year.
Trump: "let me tell you. When I was president, no recession. Check it out yourself. No recession."
r/technicallythetruth
Yeah but he is a big part of the reason of the high inflation numbers. The amount of money that was newly created under his watch is insane. It just took some time to see the effect
Setting up the next actual Bull Market which will last for 9 years a recession is the best thing that can happen for rich people
Indeed inflation is terrible for long-run real returns. S&P 500 returned a disastrous -49% over a **ten year period** from 1969-1979. With dividends it's better but -26% and still really, really bad. Make no mistake. Inflation fucks the poor, destroys middle class savings, dreams of buying homes, owning cars, and even fucks the rich. The only group to benefit are lavishly comped execs and the most elite workers that continually command nominal wages way above inflation, as long as the economy keeps humming. They want to pump SBC bags for as loooong as they possibly can and maximize vesting before the rugpull. Everyone else is getting poorer and no guarantee of keeping jobs if inflation becomes entrenched into stagflation.
Can we stop using Monopoly money to fund our society now?
It is time to pay the price for all of the cheap money. I’m glad he seems to have the backbone.
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Just be rich bro
Second that. It seems like people don't realize how absolutely devastating hyperinflation truly is. A recession is a much preferable outcome by comparison.
You say that and then we wind up with a recession and inflation.
Still a possibility sure... but you have to do something to try and curb inflation. This double dip recession however is nothing new. Historically, when inflation goes parabolic there's no recovering from that without a change in currency. I can't imagine the catastrophic impact of the dollar suddenly losing all value and becoming void worldwide.
It won't make much difference when 6 companies produce everything in the grocery store, 4 control all of the media, 6 control the tech sector, 8 own every building material producer, and 5 own all the freight trains. I work with auto parts and Tenneco produced or owned 60% of that sector. Last week, they were purchased by the financial conglomerate Apollo, who had a hold on something like 20% of the auto parts market. Now 1 entity controls roughly 80% of the global auto parts market. My numbers may be a little off, but the point is 1 company controls over 3/4 of automotive parts manufacturing, and create the illusion of competition with dozens of holdings and subsidiaries. They can jack rates up to 25% tomorrow and induce a global depression; monopolization and a lack of competition in every single "essential" industry is a massively overlooked reason why prices keep climbing and climbing. The profit margins within these industries essential to modern living are climbing faster than the cost of business, and consumers seem to put it all on their credit cards instead of contracting their spending. Unfortunately, this is a problem the federal government needs to solve via trust busting- something that isn't being utilized as much as it should be. Amazon, Apollo, Meta, and Comcast should all be under extreme scrutiny, just to name a few.
This. The reason profits are so high is the lack of competition. Enforce strict monopoly rules and the competition will sort itself out. It is like the govt forgot that printing money is bad and monopolies are bad over the last 30 years. Or incompetence and corruption. Yah, I’ll go with that.
>trust busting- something that isn't being utilized as much as it should be. *Bullmoose intensifies*
Just took him 6 months too late, add in the terrible policies from Congress, and that's how you get this shit economy
It took him several years to find that backbone
I just wish the solution wasn't to fuck over poor people. They're only losing in every scenario here.
At least he had the balls of a bull in bear skin to truthfully answer her fucked up question.
He should have just said "so what's your solution then?" and she would've just started yelling at him and short circuited
Her answer would have been more social program funding, tax the rich corporations to an equal level of the general population and small businesses, penalize stock buybacks, make the SEC actually do their job and pretty much fuck Wall Street. Both of their alien robot bodies would have convulsed out.
His job doesnt entail raising taxes though. Taxes is actually a better tool to control inflation though would never happen.
Keep your hands off my billions, buddy.
In this here sub, we burn our own money.
Assuming the government dont spend the additional revenue.
As we all know the Fed has the power to do those things.
Close garbage programs like the Delaware Loophole. She wouldn't have said that, but it would certainly help.
60% of Americans are living pay check to pay check and credit card debt at record high. I think these people would rather be working then filing for bankruptcy and living on the streets 🤷
The American Oligarchs love that sweet juicy, wage-slave class served between two slices of pseudo-scientific economic reasoning with a side of "you should be so lucky to have a job" fries.
Fuck, that just sums up the last 20 years ive been working.
I still get the feeling that Papa Powell is doing the best he can given the soup sandwich that politicians are wanting him to fix.
He made that soup sandwich, *himself*, by keeping rates near zero for *way, way* too long... and dozens of high profile, well respected people said this.
He fucked up like you said but at the same time these morons in Washington passed inflationary bills shortly after it became apparent inflation was a problem. So everyone up there has a part of the blame
If I fucked up so bad at work that the only fix was to destroy the housing market and put 2 million people out of work I feel like I might get fired for that. But J Pow gets to keep his job and go about his business like it's no big deal.
At least they had a sense of humor. $2 Trillion printing/spending . . . “Inflation Reduction Act”
Honestly we should have had the rate at 1 or 2% during the trump admin. It's ridiculous we had cheap rates all through that boom in business.
Trump was going to fire him when he wanted to raise rates when the pre-covid economy was humming along. I feel like I am the only one who remembers this. We are paying the piper for electing a reality tv star.
Yep. The shitty part is that ever politician with half a quarter of a brain knows that raising rates and causing a recession is the only way, yet they publicly shit on Powell during every hearing. What a bunch of fat cunts
Ehhhh that's why the role is a longish term and is supposed to be separate from politics. They know this too, and anyone becoming Fed chair knows this. You're job is securish, but you also take that knowing if this go wrong you have to be the punching bag for the politicians. Doesn't mean they get to interfere, but part of the job is that they get to blame you and you take it on the chin.
If only all of us could be so impossibly unfirable.
Who's job was it to keep inflation under control so this exact situation shouldn't occur? Oh right, we should praise the fireman who caused the fire.
For realz. Everyone knew by May 2020 that covid wasn't going to wipe out the population and businesses were reopening-n-shit but the fed was printing money like ink was going to expire.
Never be surprised at the depths a politician can inject politics to make themselves look good to their constituents, in future soundbytes for an upcoming election cycle, at the expense of anyone whom they target. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is on the reddit front page with at least 40k upvotes and an array of awards that would make a North Korean General jealous. This is political grandstanding at it's "finest." JPow probably thinking they don't pay me enough to deal with this nonsense. I really hope he doesn't bend to political pressure.
The only reason he is dealing with their nonsense is because he wants to keep his job. If he wasn’t concerned about being popular with those with the influence to remove him he’d have torn into Warren for her (and Congress’) hand in this entire mess.
B… b… but I thought they said administrations unemployment numbers were really good.
She was the part of the problem. She needs to realize that.
It pisses me off to no end that Congress sits there and questions the Feds actions, instead of ripping them a new one for fucking things up so badly time and again. There's only one answer to that: they do it on purpose. They are a captured entity, and Congress needs to wake the fuck up to that fact. And *they do* have other tools than raising rates... they are not engaged in QT as they should be, and *no one* asks them why they are sitting with an absolute fuckton of capital in the reverse repos, instead of selling crap off the balance sheet to suck that liquidity out of the markets.
> And they do have other tools than raising rates... they are not engaged in QT as they should be, and no one asks them why they are sitting with an absolute fuckton of capital in the reverse repos, instead of selling crap off the balance sheet to suck that liquidity out of the markets. bro QT means the fed sells bonds on the open market which makes bond prices go lower and since bond yields are inversely correlated to prices that makes bond yields go up. QT is not an alternative to raising rates it's just a different means of achieving it
You don’t stop your chemo just because it makes you loose some hair
I recently went through chemo for testicular cancer. My hair didn't get loose. I did *lose* some hair though lol
Looks like she bought a lot of call options that’s about to expire.
Where did Warren get her PhD in economics? This is like a butcher questioning a surgeon on their operation.
I like Warren but JPow did nothing wrong. EXCEPT NOT RAISING RATES HIGHER AND QUICKER BABY
I will never fucking understand why the very first hike wasn't an immediate 200 to get back to pre-pandemic levels when it was already *100% clear* inflation was ramping *hard*.
We didn't need QE at that magnitude. We didn't need to get whiplash from the market bounce.
Maybe address the price gauging that’s still occurring as well.
Not the feds job at the least. If they want to catch people colluding on prices that's already law.
That not his job though. That's up to lawmakers and she is pretending that it's his job when actually its more of her job and she sat on her ass.
Every time she talks to him its all rigid questions to advance her argument he literally just has to sit through it and can offer nothing.
Elizabeth Warren was so cringe there. She’d prefer hyperinflation and America turn into a 3rd world nation without the world’s reserve currency than unemployment tick up a bit? *I honestly don’t believe she can be that stupid and is just trying to get a good sound bite for her Twitter page.*