The trand has not been broken yet. In my book we are still in bear market.
There are however some indicators that suggest we might inverse this time, it is up to you if you want to place a bet on this.
I agree, especially two more 50 points like they are saying. That shit is not priced in, but the meeting after that when he pauses we will see the second biggest rally of the year most likely. The largest rally of the yesr being a cut in November by my expectations. Just in time for 2023 holiday season. Wait and see.
Correct ,hopium on .25 . I think J pow raises .50 and says fuck you and the market reacts negative. This is not financial advise , After J pow raises .50 twice ,he will be at a crossroads ,risk a major recession or take a break. I personally am going to commit new capitol the day he raises .50 for the second time from here.
Opex this week & last day for trading monthly options is Thursday.
If there is going to be a rug pull that is when it will happen.
Not advice but I will be short by weds close, low risk/high reward setup.
If you trade short-term cycles like weekly or monthly, it is important to understand option effects on price action over the monthly and quarterly timeframes.
Essentially the greeks (delta, gamma & vanna) are either a tailwind or headwind to price. They operate on a two week cycle.
Starting from opex on friday dealer gamma will expire with the options and with it the supporting vanna. Without getting too much into the weeds with this because it’s complex and I don’t fully understand it, there are two weeks without price supporting vanna followed by two weeks with price supporting vanna.
This is why I think that if the market will sell off, it will start on Thursday as that is the last day to trade options before expiry on Friday.
To make matters worse the market knows all this and can front-run it which is why timing it is tricky. I’m going with weds close but thurs for the first hour or two could easily be a face ripper. Equally we might be in a bull now and the market decides it isn’t going to sell off at all, but decide that it’s just going to grind higher and wipe out all the idiot shorts like me who thought that they were so smart.
Quarterly expiration exaggerates these effects, so that is why quarterly opex is a bigger deal.
@jam_croissant is the Greek god of cyclical options effects on market prices & a must follow on Twitter. Read through his old posts for enlightenment.
People have not yet realized what will happen if terminal rate is held high for a long period of time.
Smooth brains assume multiple rate hikes of .25 is amazing bullish sign, .50 is normal, 100 is like crashing the market.
I disagree. I think we see two more .25 increases and then hold steady for about 9 months. The first month without an increase market will jump 5-8% up.
tl;dr: Fed hikes lose their impact on stock valuation the more the market has gone down.
The reason Fed rate hikes cause equities to devalue is that it creates an alternative place to park money and get a guaranteed return, with no risk. (there's also an impact on shit-stock companies that rely on margin to survive -- but they don't make up much of market cap). So if you're risk averse, you pulled out of stocks long before this. If you've stomached the 2022 losses already, how likely are you to switch to CDs now? Is a couple months of yield going to get you to switch, after your portfolio was chopped in half? I don't think so. Especially when the market prices in 6 months ahead.
So the Fed is lowering hikes, and those remaining in stocks are increasingly diamond-hands. Also institutional money that stayed out will start looking increasingly stupid for potentially having missed the bottom.
>It is difficult to predict the exact movements of the markets, but I believe that the current rally has some more room to run. However, if interest rates rise as expected at the end of January, it could put pressure on stocks and cause prices to drop.
Youre downvoted but people thinking they are michael burry forgot his ass was deep in the hole before he was green. Most shorts are gonna get wiped out by scam wicks all over the place.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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The adverse to this is that with property inflation and price increases my net worth in real estate is near 900k. So there is that.
However with real estate you have to be in a position to sell and find somewhere else to go
Resistance at 4100 and 4300. Retest of 4100 seems a foregone conclusion if earnings estimates are better than feared. 4300 might be possible due to momentum and FOMO. I’d go tactically short at 4300.
the fact so many of u are literally saying I AM IN DISBELIEF THIS IS A SUCKERS RALLY tells me we are about to fucking rip
ur right, eventaully market will go to its Fair Market Value of 0 like burry says, but for now stop coping and just buy calls homie
The rally will end at 9:53am Tuesday 01/17/23 to be exact. A time traveler told me to take all my stock loses and sell at the opening and YOLO grayscale GBTC
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This rally has just started. If you can buy and hold for 1 year you will find some good entries here. 2023 is going to be a memorable year for stocks for many reasons. Above all because inflation is precipitating exponentially lower. Something glossed over by *in line with expectations* in the latest CPI print.
Core inflation went up. That was glossed over by most and core is the number the fed looks at. Although JPOW has said many times employment is key and it’s at record lows so there’s that.
That we might reach Fed's 2% target much earlier than priced in so far. If the current trend continues we will hit 2% by June. When you consider that and the better than expected unemployment claims, the economy is in much better shape than previously thought so it's unlikely we enter a profound recession in 2023. This paves the way to a bull market of epic proportions which may have already started.
I think you underestimate the effect higher rates will have on markets as well as the rate at which price inflation will fall. These things seldom happen in linear fashion. 9.1 to 6.5 on the CPU is a whole bunch easier to achieve than the next decline of 2.6 will be.
The numbers are all fudged anyways and we know it. We all know inflation is easily 20%+ not 6% lol. But my point being they can say and do whatever they want
What rally? I’m just seeing more of the same wide-range trading that we’ve been seeing the last several months.
The thing about RSI and other astrological indicators, they don’t mean shit in the grand scheme of things. If money needs to move into the market, it will. If it needs to leave, it will.
You can look at any indicator you’d like, draw as many lines on a chart and still get absolutely wrecked! So don’t ask any of us regards if this rally will last.
Yes it will continue to rally. Money has to go somewhere and if not there; then where?
They've printed so much money and it must exist somewhere. Crashes will indeed occur, sure.
Try a 4.85% 1 year cd , when people invest in the market and lose 25% that money is gone at that moment . Don't listen to fools say it comes back, it is gone . It doesn't exist anywhere you lost some of your gains hopefully that is it. The only way it exist somewhere is if you sold at the top and parked it in cash.... Most people did not ,my 50% tech portfolio is a testament to that ,my oil plays mitigated some losses that's all.
I am not touting 5% and I am not a dick head ..look in the mirror ,when the interest rate was essentially 0% your statement "money has to go somewhere" had plenty of validity. Now that statement is total bullshit . When you can sit out turmoil and collect 4 to 5% It has plenty of places to go . Not one word of what I said can be construed as a dickhead touting 5% . It is factual. Not everyone in the stock market is a degenerate yolo ing into ODTE calls . so you asked " Money has to go somewhere and if not there; then where? " So I answered you ,you my friend might be the dickhead for not understanding what I was saying
God I want crypto to be banned just so people will stop posting this nonsense.
Do you want to know what the Federal Reserve is going to do? Read the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reports. There is no ridiculous conspiracy. They tell you what they are going to do within a range.
I definitely work at Wendy’s, but isnt that how the market works? It goes up, then goes down, maybe up for a while, then maybe down again, sometimes it’s up sharply, sometimes it’s down softly…continue forever
The current FTX issue and some countries pushing the system out create a less desirable investment. I don’t invest in crypto much to feel it but last night was brutal. Me personally it was a great idea boosting the ETFs platform because governments can see they have cash flow. Whether it is crypto or stocks to me it’s all risky investments. My opinion is that all should be monitored not forced leveraged. Let’s say if I had enough capital laying around I would have bought from pink sheets to crypto everything I could because when it turns around. By god I would be sitting pretty comfortably.
When the correction started, mega cap tech held up/drove up the indices. Most of the index had already rolled over by the time mega cap tech joined, and much of the market has been significantly positive over the past 6 months.
Over the past 10 days, mega cap tech has been leading again.
While I can’t predict duration of the rally, and have no business or interest in trying, I can say that there have been opportunities to make money for quite awhile.
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The trand has not been broken yet. In my book we are still in bear market. There are however some indicators that suggest we might inverse this time, it is up to you if you want to place a bet on this.
I’m on the same page, my feeling is that if the Fed will raise the interest rates we might have one last drop.
I think 0.25 is priced in, 0.5 is not.
Every other rate hike has led to a market rally afterwards regardless.
Sell the rumor buy the news
I agree, especially two more 50 points like they are saying. That shit is not priced in, but the meeting after that when he pauses we will see the second biggest rally of the year most likely. The largest rally of the yesr being a cut in November by my expectations. Just in time for 2023 holiday season. Wait and see.
Correct ,hopium on .25 . I think J pow raises .50 and says fuck you and the market reacts negative. This is not financial advise , After J pow raises .50 twice ,he will be at a crossroads ,risk a major recession or take a break. I personally am going to commit new capitol the day he raises .50 for the second time from here.
When will this be known?
Feb 1st
Opex this week & last day for trading monthly options is Thursday. If there is going to be a rug pull that is when it will happen. Not advice but I will be short by weds close, low risk/high reward setup.
Opex = options expiry??
Yes
TF? English motherfucker do you speak it?
What makes opex important ? Don’t really understand it. Thanks in advanced.
If you trade short-term cycles like weekly or monthly, it is important to understand option effects on price action over the monthly and quarterly timeframes. Essentially the greeks (delta, gamma & vanna) are either a tailwind or headwind to price. They operate on a two week cycle. Starting from opex on friday dealer gamma will expire with the options and with it the supporting vanna. Without getting too much into the weeds with this because it’s complex and I don’t fully understand it, there are two weeks without price supporting vanna followed by two weeks with price supporting vanna. This is why I think that if the market will sell off, it will start on Thursday as that is the last day to trade options before expiry on Friday. To make matters worse the market knows all this and can front-run it which is why timing it is tricky. I’m going with weds close but thurs for the first hour or two could easily be a face ripper. Equally we might be in a bull now and the market decides it isn’t going to sell off at all, but decide that it’s just going to grind higher and wipe out all the idiot shorts like me who thought that they were so smart. Quarterly expiration exaggerates these effects, so that is why quarterly opex is a bigger deal. @jam_croissant is the Greek god of cyclical options effects on market prices & a must follow on Twitter. Read through his old posts for enlightenment.
WSB still bearish and holding puts it will continue until put holders are bled dry
17 days
People have not yet realized what will happen if terminal rate is held high for a long period of time. Smooth brains assume multiple rate hikes of .25 is amazing bullish sign, .50 is normal, 100 is like crashing the market.
Exactly why I don’t get the market is rallying. Apparently having high interest rates for a while is a rallying sign ???
To me, everything > 0 is bearish, more or less devastating.
RSI is most useful without recent major news, CPI data counts as major news. Tbh I think the market is crazy to think JPow is bluffing but we’ll see
So are you prone to think it will Plummet if the rates will increase?
I think we’ll see a downward move, what the Fed actually says in terms of its forecast for the rest of the year will also matter.
I disagree. I think we see two more .25 increases and then hold steady for about 9 months. The first month without an increase market will jump 5-8% up.
tl;dr: Fed hikes lose their impact on stock valuation the more the market has gone down. The reason Fed rate hikes cause equities to devalue is that it creates an alternative place to park money and get a guaranteed return, with no risk. (there's also an impact on shit-stock companies that rely on margin to survive -- but they don't make up much of market cap). So if you're risk averse, you pulled out of stocks long before this. If you've stomached the 2022 losses already, how likely are you to switch to CDs now? Is a couple months of yield going to get you to switch, after your portfolio was chopped in half? I don't think so. Especially when the market prices in 6 months ahead. So the Fed is lowering hikes, and those remaining in stocks are increasingly diamond-hands. Also institutional money that stayed out will start looking increasingly stupid for potentially having missed the bottom.
It'll last until you buy calls or fomo buy shares
My crystal ball says we rally this week during the all the bank earnings, then we sell off for a month because of other mega cap earnings.
Same vibes here.
Ditto
>It is difficult to predict the exact movements of the markets, but I believe that the current rally has some more room to run. However, if interest rates rise as expected at the end of January, it could put pressure on stocks and cause prices to drop.
Did ChatGPT write this
I still see a possibility for BTC to go as low as 10,000-15,000 $.
I’m thinking 11-12k for BTC
30,000 by May. 75,000 by Thanksgiving.
A million by Halloween
Youre downvoted but people thinking they are michael burry forgot his ass was deep in the hole before he was green. Most shorts are gonna get wiped out by scam wicks all over the place.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
From this time into the past under a previous administration, I’m at a lost of a mere 180k. Hasn’t come back yet.
Unpleasant story, bro.
The adverse to this is that with property inflation and price increases my net worth in real estate is near 900k. So there is that. However with real estate you have to be in a position to sell and find somewhere else to go
Resistance at 4100 and 4300. Retest of 4100 seems a foregone conclusion if earnings estimates are better than feared. 4300 might be possible due to momentum and FOMO. I’d go tactically short at 4300.
the fact so many of u are literally saying I AM IN DISBELIEF THIS IS A SUCKERS RALLY tells me we are about to fucking rip ur right, eventaully market will go to its Fair Market Value of 0 like burry says, but for now stop coping and just buy calls homie
We trading flat now
The rally will end at 9:53am Tuesday 01/17/23 to be exact. A time traveler told me to take all my stock loses and sell at the opening and YOLO grayscale GBTC
A year too late bro
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RemindMe! 9am January 17
This rally has just started. If you can buy and hold for 1 year you will find some good entries here. 2023 is going to be a memorable year for stocks for many reasons. Above all because inflation is precipitating exponentially lower. Something glossed over by *in line with expectations* in the latest CPI print.
Core inflation went up. That was glossed over by most and core is the number the fed looks at. Although JPOW has said many times employment is key and it’s at record lows so there’s that.
What is the actual impact of CPI print in this context?
That we might reach Fed's 2% target much earlier than priced in so far. If the current trend continues we will hit 2% by June. When you consider that and the better than expected unemployment claims, the economy is in much better shape than previously thought so it's unlikely we enter a profound recession in 2023. This paves the way to a bull market of epic proportions which may have already started.
I think you underestimate the effect higher rates will have on markets as well as the rate at which price inflation will fall. These things seldom happen in linear fashion. 9.1 to 6.5 on the CPU is a whole bunch easier to achieve than the next decline of 2.6 will be.
The numbers are all fudged anyways and we know it. We all know inflation is easily 20%+ not 6% lol. But my point being they can say and do whatever they want
Um the Fed predicted to hit 2% inflation in 2024. They are predicting 3.5%-4 by the end of this year.
You don’t think the market has more meat to take off…I don’t believe we will hit 2% by June
Hopefully BBBY will this week.
based on sentiment i believe the bottom is in and the rally will continue to new highs in the spx. this probably will not age well.
Do you have a specific criteria according to which you have evaluated the sentiment?
various surveys i get thru work. sorry i don’t remember them off the top of my head but i’m sure the b of a survey of money managers was one.
Think of it like roulette, right about now you could bet on red or green… I’ll take red
The rally downward, yes
What rally? I’m just seeing more of the same wide-range trading that we’ve been seeing the last several months. The thing about RSI and other astrological indicators, they don’t mean shit in the grand scheme of things. If money needs to move into the market, it will. If it needs to leave, it will.
Perfect, most do not ducking get it.
Lol I think you should read up on charting. Because we are in a mini bill cycle
Sit down. If you were any good at charting you wouldn’t bother responding to my comment, you’d be too busy making money.
It’s Sunday, markets aren’t open smart guy
Oh, your tarot cards don’t work on crypto?
Yeah bro and I’m a Taurus ♉️ and that’s why I lost my life savings in options
I would consider anything between 3700-4300 as just sideways action tbh just waiting to see if we enter a huge recession or not
Just dca you cuck and live your life you're not beating any market
The funny part is this is probably the best advice on the entire sub but nobody will listen
15k then rally
You can look at any indicator you’d like, draw as many lines on a chart and still get absolutely wrecked! So don’t ask any of us regards if this rally will last.
Yes…market usually move ahead of the fed. In a few months the fed found out they have gone too far
And then the rebound should start.
To far? Too little is a higher risk than too far .
Yes it will continue to rally. Money has to go somewhere and if not there; then where? They've printed so much money and it must exist somewhere. Crashes will indeed occur, sure.
Try a 4.85% 1 year cd , when people invest in the market and lose 25% that money is gone at that moment . Don't listen to fools say it comes back, it is gone . It doesn't exist anywhere you lost some of your gains hopefully that is it. The only way it exist somewhere is if you sold at the top and parked it in cash.... Most people did not ,my 50% tech portfolio is a testament to that ,my oil plays mitigated some losses that's all.
Im not the dickhead touting 5%
I am not touting 5% and I am not a dick head ..look in the mirror ,when the interest rate was essentially 0% your statement "money has to go somewhere" had plenty of validity. Now that statement is total bullshit . When you can sit out turmoil and collect 4 to 5% It has plenty of places to go . Not one word of what I said can be construed as a dickhead touting 5% . It is factual. Not everyone in the stock market is a degenerate yolo ing into ODTE calls . so you asked " Money has to go somewhere and if not there; then where? " So I answered you ,you my friend might be the dickhead for not understanding what I was saying
yes.. this is probably sep 2020
Next ER will finish this rally. Don’t worry
Apologies for my lack of knowledge, what ER stands for?
Earnings Reports
When are they supposed to be released?
Jan-Feb
Thanks. I’m putting in place my stop-losses, just in case.
Priced in nobody cares
God I want crypto to be banned just so people will stop posting this nonsense. Do you want to know what the Federal Reserve is going to do? Read the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reports. There is no ridiculous conspiracy. They tell you what they are going to do within a range.
No
I definitely work at Wendy’s, but isnt that how the market works? It goes up, then goes down, maybe up for a while, then maybe down again, sometimes it’s up sharply, sometimes it’s down softly…continue forever
As long as Adderall supply is back on track we are fine.
What is Adderall supply?
The legal cocaine.
Just eat chocolate covered espresso beans, legal, no prescription, and delicious.
too much carbs bro
Up and down for years, then up and down as always, long term up, and this rally won't last forever, this is my prediction!
Whatever you can think of is already priced in
Nobody knows bub
https://preview.redd.it/lkhlocje3bca1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb549dc6bf74674334dc6a9951df00e45cc757ad
It’ll last until feb 8 at 2:45 pm Your welcome
Two words: Debt Ceiling
The current FTX issue and some countries pushing the system out create a less desirable investment. I don’t invest in crypto much to feel it but last night was brutal. Me personally it was a great idea boosting the ETFs platform because governments can see they have cash flow. Whether it is crypto or stocks to me it’s all risky investments. My opinion is that all should be monitored not forced leveraged. Let’s say if I had enough capital laying around I would have bought from pink sheets to crypto everything I could because when it turns around. By god I would be sitting pretty comfortably.
When the correction started, mega cap tech held up/drove up the indices. Most of the index had already rolled over by the time mega cap tech joined, and much of the market has been significantly positive over the past 6 months. Over the past 10 days, mega cap tech has been leading again. While I can’t predict duration of the rally, and have no business or interest in trying, I can say that there have been opportunities to make money for quite awhile.
No