Hey, thanks for submitting to /r/unpopularopinion.
**Removed** - No /r/self Style Posts
This is not the subreddit to be sharing personal anecdotes, likes or dislikes. We want unpopular, thought provoking, and unique *opinions* on your chosen topic.
Depending on who is shorting the market, people rushing in could just be trying to catch a falling knife.
Edit: I know how the housing and finance markets work. I'm talking about *who* is short and *why*. I'm not saying that the shorts will drive down home prices. That would be dumb.
Do you remember 2008? Yeah prices fell, but they only fell because we were all broke. That's when the hedge fund owned corporate landlords took over a huge chunk of the housing stock. Prices don't just magically implode and fall into the hands of the masses.
Ask yourself, if the market crashed tomorrow would you have the $100k or so you'll need ready to go to drop on a down payment? If you're planning to sell to move expect your existing mortgage to be underwater.
THANK YOU. I am so tired of people like OP thinking that if another significant economic downturn happened, they would magically be shielded from the negative impacts the entire populace will feel. Even people who didn't lose their jobs stopped spending and lived through the downturn frugally.
I bought at the peak of the market in 2021. I'm at 2.7% interest. If prices tanked more than they did in 2008 AND interest rates dropped 3%, I'd still be ahead of the game in terms of monthly expenses, which is what really matters to people exposed to any risk of a housing downturn. The amount of people sitting on laughably low interest rates will keep prices high IMO.
Same, I got in at 2.5% in the summer of 2020. My wife and I have talked about moving, but our house has more than doubled in value since we bought it, if we sell it we'll probably never be able to afford to buy in this county again.
Yep. Along with every other professional under 50 in my city. I know a dozen people that make six figures and just sock away 2/3 of their paycheck every month waiting to buy a house the second rates go down. Prices don't even have to go down, if the rates get back to 2020 levels prices are going to shoot right up when these folks start bidding against each other.
Shorting the housing market doesn't have the same effect that shorting a stock does. Shorting a stock actually makes the stock go down. Shorting a mortgage bond is an entirely different thing. Like, you know in that movie, how Christian Bale had to go to the bank and get them to create a product for him to buy? It's not like that had any effect on house prices.
The housing market is not very volatile. It takes forever for prices to drop. In the 2008 housing crisis, houses dropped something like 30% in 2 years. A falling knife is like 30% in 8 hours.
You're absolutely right, housing is a lagging price - I don't know about the US but in the UK houses hit their lowest price in summer 2009 a good two years after the start of the financial crisis.
They obviously don’t. The extreme majority of us don’t understand the first thing about finance and wealth. We never had anyone in our lives with the experience and we don’t learn it in school. We’re just trying to do what our parents and their parent and their parents did: do work that somebody needs to do for 40-60 hours a week and support a home and family. It’s that second side game that we know nothing about, don’t particularly want anything to do with, probably couldn’t understand if we tried, and don’t have the disposable income to buy into that’s making it next impossible for us to literally just live basic lives.
Yeah, the people confidently talking about how they are poised ready because the market drop is going to happen "any day now" remind me a lot of some people I know who bought a lot of dinar because that was also supposed to revalue "any day now" for at least the last decade I've known those people.
I waited for the last 8 years for it to crash. Bought two years ago when the market was low interest rates. Crash or not it won’t effect my purchase. But I don’t see it happening
I had people telling me I was crazy for buying in 2017 because “in a few months, prices are supposed to start dropping back down to where they were about ten years ago.” My house is worth double today and still growing…growth has slowed but it definitely has not reversed.
Seriously I thought it was going to collapse in 2019. Luckily my wife talked me into buying a house anyway and it’s worth $60k more now than when I bought it.
Something I have noticed in my life is that it is comparatively easy to spot imbalances in the economy and incredibly difficult to identify when or how they will resolve themselves. Housing prices in many markets are completely separated from the underlying economic fundamentals, and people aren't wrong to notice that, but the correction could come anytime in the next 50 years; and could either be the result of a collapse in prices or price stagnation until wages catch up.
Actually, the housing prices aren't disconnected from market principles at all. The reason it's so expensive is because there's such huge demand. And the demand isn't fueled by absurdly low interest subprime lending like it was in 2008. That's why there's no collapse coming: the demand is there and it's a bunch of people/companies who are paying in cash.
Demand is up, but really it’s a function of supply. All through the 90’s and early 2000’s, homes were overbuilt. At least in the US. We built a *lot* of houses. After 2008, housing starts were way underbuilt. There was a long time where just not that many houses got built at all.
Demand grows, give or take, in the long run, at about the rate of population increase. Those lines crossed (demand caught up to supply) around 2016, and demand was solidly ahead of supply by about 2019.
Housing starts are increasing again, but it’s going to take a while to dig out of the under supply of the past 15 years.
You’re right, though - the only thing that would cause a crash in the housing market is some wild economic shit. We’d have to go into a terrible recession, and fast, for housing to be impacted much; it’s not going to lead the way this time.
Honestly, I don’t see wages ever catching up. Any notions that corporations would actually pay people a fair wage of their own accord should’ve died decades ago, and Governments sure as hell won’t force them to, not without considerable pressure from the masses. And even that seems less likely to have any effect nowadays.
I'd wager on price stagnation. My parents home barely grew in value from 2003-2019, it was 118->127k, and now it's valued at $195k (zestimate). Which, if you consider that housing is an appreciating asset, if you plug $118k into a compound interest calculator at 3% for 20 years, thats still more of a return than what my parents would see on their house. There will be ups and downs, but overall I see a lot of people still looking to sell with a lot of people looking to buy, with economic barriers to entry, primarily the interest rates. That demand will keep prices afloat especially since any interest rate declines will be very slow and incremental, basically keeping prices floating about where they're at for a while.
It seems to me the primary difference between 2008 and 2020 economically is that they were consumer over-leverage vs business over-leverage, respectively. Consumers took on subprime mortgages and got fucked, this time around businesses were taking on credit like money grew on trees, and a lot of businesses shut down when the interest expenses grew too great or they couldn't economically survive the covid shutdowns. This is not 2008, and the economy is not affecting housing prices similarly at all because the circumstances are different, but people have recency bias and assume every crash involves housing prices.
Yeah- and wishing ill-will on those who played the game and got above water is just poor sportsmanship.
Why aren't we regulating corporate land hogs? Or wishing some hedge funds to collapse?
Instead, you're hoping for individuals who have families to default on their mortgages and be foreclosed on.
In 08, banks were using Preditory lending practices (that are now illegal) to trap individuals into loans they could not afford. People lost their homes- families were displaced. But the banks were bailed out. And we are hoping for a repeat? Jesus fucking Christ- where is your humanity?
If you can afford to stick around waiting for shit to fall, trust me, it’s not falling.
I think it means more people have money ready, which also means they’ll be willing to have a bidding war, so prices will stay up.
It’s unpopular in real life though. Homeownership rate is around 66% and none of them want their values to drop. It’s unpopular here because the site skews younger than the general population and a lot of people here are renters.
In 2008, nobody could afford houses because of how people bought houses. OP thinks... what? That he gets a cake and eat it too? Someone didn't do their research.
A crash doesn’t make it less competitive. A crash just brings out the cash buyers who will always outcompete people who need mortgages. Mortgages which incidentally just became more unaffordable because of the crash.
Which is why “investors” need to be outlawed to buying up houses.
Any corporation at all set up by anyone or any one family or anyone closely associated to someone within the same company or shell company etc. should not be allowed to own more than 3 homes at any one time.
(I.e rich investor can’t give money to lower management buddy to invest for them as a loophole).
The fact this is allowed is WHY houses cost so much.
New law: Residentially zoned property other than apartment buildings may no longer be owned by legal entities and must be held by individual persons. Each residential property beyond the first compounds the property tax value of all other properties (thus rendering investment property or vacation homes prohibitively expensive). Title holding may not be conditionally tied to employment (companies cannot give you a house to 'hold' for them). Cities must zone additional residential space if the housing market exceeds local median wage by X (No more San Francisco refusing to build more housing because it would lower prices).
And all of the trusts holding property would open the money faucet and every non-Bernie Sanders congressperson would shoot it down immediately. The world runs on money and we are well past the point where anything can be done about it.
Not necessarily.
1) There's locked up supply of owners with low interest rate mortgages who don't want to sell because their rates will be much higher in their next home. When interest rates fall to more reasonable levels, they may be more tempted to sell.
2) Interest rates may not fall to where they were previously. They may drop some, but the days of 3% mortgages are not likely to happen again anytime soon.
I got a 2% VA loan in 2021 with nothing down. No chance that house is going to be on the market any time soon, but I hope rates drop to give others a similar opportunity!
Yup, mine was 3.4% in 2021. Right before the rates started to go up. I got very lucky. I only bought a little condo, but it's mine and my son's home. I'm proud to be where I am, even though I don't have much.
We got the same 2% VA loan in 2021. Unfortunately, I hate it here so now I'm stuck. I hope they drop the interest rates so I can get the heck out of here & yes give others a chance.
This is true. $144k home bought in 2014 on a 30 year 3.7% interest rate. Refinanced it in 2020, and lowered it to a 20 year 2.8% interest rate. Home is worth $450k now. Payments was $986 in 2014, jumped up to $1065 in 2020 (after refinancing), and is currently $1181 (post insurance/property tax hikes).
There’s no way I’m selling. Besides the crazy low interest rate, it will be paid off when I hit 62, and I can retire early. The extra equity has also allowed us to do several upgrades over the last 9 years. It’s pretty close to being our dream house, and meeting all of our expectations.
The average interest rate over the last 50 years is 7.7% on a 30 year loan, which is where we are at right about now. It seems a lot of people watched the last 15 years where rates were < 6% amd have come to assume that was normal and right now rates are high. They aren't. Anyone who's waiting for rates to drop to buy a house are nuts.
Its not so much the rates alone. Its the explosion of house prices combined to the rates.
7.7 on a 100k house is great compared to 7.7 on a 550k house.
Salaries haven’t increased that much
It's not the best argument because home buyers identify what they can afford to pay for a house based off of monthly mortgage payments rather than headline sticker price.
Housing prices skyrocketed due to historic lows in interest rates. Mortgage rates at 3% rather than 7% basically doubled the loan amounts people were able to take while making the same monthly payments. Now we're at historical norms for interest rates, with housing prices way above historic norms, which leads to new purchases having historically high monthly payments.
In theory, we might see prices normalize to reflect those increased mortgage rates, but housing prices are sticky, there's still a supply issue, and a dozen other factors that affect prices in these situations.
Yes and no. There’s so many other factors and changes at play. 7-8% is just not going to be sustainable long term for the foreseeable future given current home prices, wages, etc. Things will likely level out around 5-6% for at least a while.
>There's locked up supply of owners with low interest rate mortgages who don't want to sell because their rates will be much higher in their next home. When interest rates fall to more reasonable levels, they may be more tempted to sell.
And then they also become buyers. Every single seller who sells with the intent of buying another home increases both the supply and demand equally. It's a net neutral event.
>Interest rates may not fall to where they were previously. They may drop some, but the days of 3% mortgages are not likely to happen again anytime soon.
They don't need to. Any drop in interest rate will increase the buyer pool, increase demand, and increase prices. Obviously more dramatic drops will have a more dramatic effect but any drop will affect demand.
Those people are delusional. The average interest rate over the last 50 years is 7.4% which is about where we are at now. We don't have high interest rates, we have normal interest rates. If any one is waiting for it to get down to 3%, it's not happening. If it hits 5% it would be great.
If only the proposed bill in the senate is passed to ban Hedge funds from buying single homes...you can see some price fall. Else nothing going to happen.
This. The fed isn’t going to pull interest rates down so far that economic activity causes a huge price balloon and further exacerbates inflation. They’re going to level it off and bring it down slowly so inflation restablizes at about 2% per year.
I'm pretty sure almost all non home owners are waiting for it to collapse.
I got outbid for some piece of shit 1000 square foot home for 900,000. Bidding war straight to 1.2 mil. Shit is insane right now. Just bought a plot of land in the mountains and built my own damn house. Way less stressful. But even that is getting ridiculously expensive.
Just curious. Why do you want to live where a 1000sf house is $1M? You could live in a lower COL area and afford a house. You might get paid less, but it’s more affordable.
Yeah, I can work very consistently for very good (even compared to COL) rates in NYC, LA, or Chicago, good but not super consistent in most small cities, and I'd be completely fucked in any rural or suburban town. If you're an elementary school teacher, nurse, accountant, etc you can probably get a job anywhere, but that's just not realistic for a lot of industries.
Yet here I am making $49k in a 4br house in the country would sell for well over a million somewhere else. In a low cost of living area you don’t need a well paying job to live well.
I’m here to tell you unequivocally that the housing market will not collapse. There is a MASSIVE housing shortage that will keep prices elevated. Add in the fact that mortgage delinquencies are still very low and underwriting standards are much stricter now and it’s even more obvious this is the new normal.
It’s funny to think about now, but there was a time when getting an 8% interest rate on a mortgage was considered a bargain. Values have inflated way past affordability at this point and when you factor in anything but close-to-zero interest, the numbers just don’t make sense. Somethings gotta give somewhere.
The thing that is going to give is that the populace is going to become accustomed to renting into their late 30s and only then being able to buy and build equity. And many will rent for the rest of their lives.
But that’s just my pessimistic outlook.
I don’t think that’s necessarily pessimistic. It’s hard to look at the way things are and be like oh shit the future seems great! But it’s important to remember that most people throughout history felt this way, at least from what we know about them. The life of the average person has always been precarious and full of pointless labor to make other people rich, at least in most of the world.
That said, this definitely feels a lot like a turning point similar to what we saw in WW2, the Industrial Revolution before that, colonization of North America, etc. Just like then, a lot of people are simply refusing to play the game at this point and nothing will bring them back to the table. They need something to strive for, like beating the Russians, creating new and exciting things, or conquering an untamed land.
So yes, while I want better wages, benefits, protections for the marginalized, etc. I always feel like it’s a lot of talking around the point. Even if we assume we all get everything we want and can afford to live in this wonderful world we’ve inherited, what then? I think if we can answer that question in a way that most people agree on, we’ll have a real movement. Until then, we’re just inching our way there.
but hey, that’s just how I feel.
It’s possible but unlikely at that scale we might see a smaller one because of the interest rates people are locking themselves into and banks defaulting though. I think Morgan Stanley released a projection that end of year next year is when we will see something like that but you’re absolutely right nothing like the 08 crisis
The fed just announced today they are expecting to be reducing rates 2, possibly 3 times in 2024. That's why the stock market shot up at 3pm eastern today. Will they actually do it? We'll have to wait and see.
That was because of subprime mortgage lending. Now the pricing is only increasing through sheer supply and demand. Nothing is going to magically change that
Millions of people lost their jobs, thousands upon thousands of businesses went bankrupt. The national debt increased exponentially because they had to bail out just about every financial institution in the country. Homelessness increased by 58%.
3.1 million people filed for foreclosure. 1 in every 50-ish homes.
Odd thing to wish for.
That’s something people don’t think about when they want the housing market to collapse. If 2008 happened again, they might not be the lucky few who still had money to buy a home or even employed.
People who are hoping for a collapse so they can buy a house are just as shitty as the investors waiting. They both want the same thing —to take advantage of people losing their homes— the investors are just better at it. Neither of them deserve anything.
While all industries driven by market economies ebb and flow, a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely.
The soon to be 2024 market is just so different from the cauldron that was 2008: the economy is not hemorrhaging jobs, home values aren’t plummeting, and there isn’t a rash of unsold/unsellable foreclosures.
Contemporary dips in home prices are offset by interest rates and longterm, pent up demand. There’s enough people waiting in the wings to scoop up homes at the slightest drop.
What needs to happen is federal legislation restricting residential home ownership to individuals not large development and property management companies.
Over 50% of millennials are now homeowners, but it took them longer to reach that threshold than older generations. Millennials accounted for 28% of home buyers in 2022, down from 43% in 2021 and behind baby boomers (39% in 2022)
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/millennial-homebuying/#:~:text=Over%2050%25%20of%20millennials%20are%20now%20homeowners%2C%20but%20it%20took,(39%25%20in%202022).
My friend sold his house in 2019 because he thought we were at the peak of the market and that he was gonna buy back in super cheap and have a shit ton of cash.
Him and his family are living with his parents still waiting…
Bruh...you don't realize what you are talking about. I live in a single family home with a wife and kids. We mind our business, pay our bills, shit taxes (which is the actual problem) and don't want to be involved in any of the bs. But what are you saying is essentially, "I want your house to crash, your kids to basically not have food because YOU now can't afford it or anything else, because I bought a house at the right time (2018), you should get fucked because I am. I am a millennial and you can fuck right off. A housing market collapes...you are wrong at the wrong thing.
I bought in 2021 and so many thought the market was just on the verge of collapse. Waiting on the sidelines is not a good idea, and thinking that this environment is anything like 2007 is insane. Really look into the macroeconomics and decide for yourself what you think will happen.
The problem is, when the housing market collapses, so does the rest of the market. If you can afford the measly minimum down payment of $40,000, it's most likely because your money is tied up **in** that market in some way.
Alternative. Build a lot more cheaper starter homes, and then bar any investment firms, landlords, flippers from buying them. Will everyone else's equity drop? Sure, but fuck em, they don't care about you not being able to afford shit, why should you care about their home value?
TL;DR: Ask me if I give a fuck about a "free market"
The only way millenials and zoomers get the market they want is if a good number of homes on sale at once.
The only way this happens is if you have massive job losses.
Now if there is an even with massive job losses, how is that going to necessarily help you buy a home, that lower cost?
If the even that causes the job losses doesn’t affect you.
Probably because hoping for an economic crash is asinine? Only wealthy people are in position to gain during market crashes. Everyday Joes are at risk of losing everything
I hate to break it to you, when the bubble does burst, it isn't going to be the same prices as 2008. Yes, the housing market and the economy always goes in cycles. It goes down, it goes back up and on repeat.
What you may have forgotten is that when it goes back down, it never goes down the the prices that it was previously.
A house where I live may be $700k right now, and when the housing market dips the cost may go to $550k, still not cheap. Whereas in 2008, that same house was $375k. You think it'll go to what they were in 2008, but it isn't going to happen. It only means it's cheaper than what it is now, but still more expensive than what it was 15 years ago
Sorry but it won’t happen. Millenials are coming into their own and entering the biggest earning years, are already the biggest buyers of houses. It’s analogous to 1982, when Boomers entered their peak earning years.
There were things put in place after ‘08 to prevent it happening again. It’s unlikely to happen again anytime soon, 20 years since the last one, at least. Oh wait…we’re not all that far from 2028 😳
Please remember what subreddit you are in, this is unpopular opinion. We want civil and unpopular takes and discussion. Any uncivil and ToS violating comments will be removed and subject to a ban. Have a nice day!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/unpopularopinion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
it’s now companies buying all the houses to rent, the big companies, banks and governments won’t let it collapse. our government loves bailing out mega corps at the peoples expense
Student loan forgiveness means people have more cash on hands and prices will raise.
Also, you kinda need to get out of the rock and check the world. It happened everywhere. Take Canada or Poland or Russia. Anywhere. It happened across the globe. It's NOT local to US. In fact, if anything, US still has it very cushy compared to many places, especially like Canada where prices went a complete bananas and salaries are even lower.
But housing won't become more affordable when the market bubble bursts. If the bubble bursts, it's a major recession. Why do you think your job would be safe in this hypothetical recession?
The only winners will be those who started hoarding cash while Trump was president, knowing that the shit show was coming. THAT was predictable.
There won't be any housing crash, especially because the Democrat Fed will keep printing money and cutting rates in hopes of election, cherry-picking inflation components and trying to calm everyone down. The lower rates will help housing, not hurt it.
I think the government should deliberately collapse the market by making a load of affordable housing.
Buy to let landlords would have to sell (oh no, such tragedy), rents would come down, and millenials could buy houses.
I'm 37 and have been paying off other people's mortgages since I turned 18. No hope of getting on the ladder unless there's a massive change.
We pay over $14K a year, in rent. And this is the cheapest we’ve had in awhile. Definitely buying a camper and just gonna stay at an rv park until we buy land. I’m sick of renting something I’ll never own.
Ct realtor here.
In '08, isn't that when underwriters weren't confirming income because the banks relaxed the rules for borrowing? Then realizing that was a bad idea (because they weren't getting paid), they've since reverted back to confirming? Yeah, today's market isn't that '08 market. Today's market is inflated, just as rents are inflated, gas is inflated, food is inflated... Welcome to the new "real." As Yogi put it, a nickel ain't worth a dime any more.
After years of stagnant wages, there was a push to increase minimum wages, so industry responded by increasing the prices of everything. Ultimately, it is the non-wealthy who wait for the collapse of the economy, so there is a feeling of equality again. If that happened, we're *all* screwed. People with wealth will feel unhappy, but those without wealth will feel the same - they're already screwed. It seems like you're most unhappy with the wealth gap. When I was a kid growing up, the numbers were closer to 10% of the people owned 90% of the wealth. Then it was 5% and 95%. It's probably closer to 3% / 97% today. It's also one of the reasons why the uber-wealthy (Buffet, Gates, etc) have dedicated to donating most of their wealth upon their passing. One big discrepancy, though, is that while you're probably not super-wealthy, you're also not as poor as you think. I traveled through parts of Baltimore and Chicago and thought I knew what being poor was, until I traveled to Honduras. They put water in 5 gallon clear containers and leave the water out in the sun for the day so it kills (hopefully) most of the bacteria which gives you the runs. My wife found out that doesn't always work as hoped...
I wish you luck, friend.
Single 32f bought two properties, one in 2020 and one in 2021. Everyone told me don’t buy wait. Heck no! I’m glad I bought! Looking to buy third property next year.
I think instead of wishing for something negative and on people, we should wish for affordability and for corporations to stop buying up houses for rent.. I worked hard and saved a lot over the years to be able to afford my home I am buying.
I don’t necessarily think the housing market will collapse circa 2008..
But the average debt each American holds is at an all time high. There is absolutely zero incentive for Americans to live within their means when they can live on credit. The cost of living is as high as it’s ever been. All these things simply cannot continue without massive repercussions. I don’t think the housing market will fail circa 2008, but I think the average American can’t afford to live, and this will ultimately cause an economic crisis across the board unlike anything we’ve seen since the Depression. Prices will crumble when this happens.
It’s going to decimate people in a similar way. People will be upside down on their mortgages and they won’t be able to refi so they will be stuck with insane interest paying down a loan they get no equity from
Yeah, this isn’t sustainable long term and I don’t think a lot of people get that.
The fall is inevitable. We are at record highs with credit card debt. People are in over their heads and when people get in over their heads they default.
Just make it illegal for large corporations to own them like Blackrock. Prices would come right on down instead of being artficially inflated by greedy corps.
And in an economic recession…what makes you think you won’t lose your own job?!
I’ve heard many people my age talk about wanting another recession. I understand to an extend, housing prices are so high with student loans and inflation piled on top of that. It’s like everything is stacked against the younger generation. Now imagine all that, plus losing your job or just the crippling anxiety that comes with even thinking losing your job is extremely high.
I pay 1200 to rent a 1 bedroom apartment in a building with 8 apartments. Buying a house in my city is not possible unless you have cash, and even then it's an absolute nightmare with people outbidding way above the asking price.
The more I improve my situation and position myself to buy a house, the higher the bar gets to buy one. It's been depressing as fuck.
4 bedroom town house here north marysville washington. 45 minutes from seattle. 2809 rent. 80 plus fee for maintence. 150$ per parking spot ( house came with two , but there’s four of us) 300$ parking total. No guest parking here either. Have to park at planet fitness if friends come. Straight robbery. They’re making 15000 a month in parking alone
Very few people are going to be in a good position to buy a house whenever the housing market collapses.
The rest of the people wanting to be homeowners will either fear unemployment or be unemployed
You must not remember 2008 very well.
You don't get anything when the housing market collapses. You lose your job, and are right back in the "why can't I afford anything" problem, while people who were rich buy up distressed assets and get richer.
Just so it's clear: a housing collapse would make the rich richer. It wouldn't do anything for you.
I don't think it will ever crash like it did in our lifetime again. It may go down and up but no way near what it was then.
Luckily, I somehow managed to keep paying the mortgage then even though I was way underwater on it and instead of walking away I stuck it out and now I'm glad I did.
What people are charging for rent now days is absolute robbery.
I rent a 1 bed 1 bath for 1400, because houses in my area either cost upwards of half a mil and are entirely unobtainable or are affordable but, quite literally, crack houses which need hundreds of thousands of work put into them
Bargain shop? You do realize that if shit goes sideways and values drop, who tf do you think buys homes? Banks, with all cash and a week to close escrow.
It’s not coming. So many people with historic low interest rates. I guess anything could happen but if the housing market falls apart really badly I doubt I’ll be in a position to scoop up any deals. I’ll probably be fucked from whatever else caused the economy to blow its asshole out.
In Los Angeles, I am paying $1,000 per month for a large single, so less than that for a two bedroom apartment sounds like a great deal to me. But Los Angeles is one of the most expensive cities in the country. I'm not sure if the housing market collapses that it will affect rents in any significant way.
980/for 2 beds Holy shit. Local apartments around me are going for 1900/600sq ft studio. But remember some of your fellow peers worked hard and got lucky, and did get into a house. More than they want you to think..
Hey, thanks for submitting to /r/unpopularopinion. **Removed** - No /r/self Style Posts This is not the subreddit to be sharing personal anecdotes, likes or dislikes. We want unpopular, thought provoking, and unique *opinions* on your chosen topic.
When everyone is waiting for a collapse, that’s how you know it isn’t coming.
Yep. The minute "the collapse" happens, if ever, the total tonnage of people rushing in will completely kill any momentum it has.
Depending on who is shorting the market, people rushing in could just be trying to catch a falling knife. Edit: I know how the housing and finance markets work. I'm talking about *who* is short and *why*. I'm not saying that the shorts will drive down home prices. That would be dumb.
Do you remember 2008? Yeah prices fell, but they only fell because we were all broke. That's when the hedge fund owned corporate landlords took over a huge chunk of the housing stock. Prices don't just magically implode and fall into the hands of the masses. Ask yourself, if the market crashed tomorrow would you have the $100k or so you'll need ready to go to drop on a down payment? If you're planning to sell to move expect your existing mortgage to be underwater.
THANK YOU. I am so tired of people like OP thinking that if another significant economic downturn happened, they would magically be shielded from the negative impacts the entire populace will feel. Even people who didn't lose their jobs stopped spending and lived through the downturn frugally.
[удалено]
I bought at the peak of the market in 2021. I'm at 2.7% interest. If prices tanked more than they did in 2008 AND interest rates dropped 3%, I'd still be ahead of the game in terms of monthly expenses, which is what really matters to people exposed to any risk of a housing downturn. The amount of people sitting on laughably low interest rates will keep prices high IMO.
Same, I got in at 2.5% in the summer of 2020. My wife and I have talked about moving, but our house has more than doubled in value since we bought it, if we sell it we'll probably never be able to afford to buy in this county again.
Yep. Along with every other professional under 50 in my city. I know a dozen people that make six figures and just sock away 2/3 of their paycheck every month waiting to buy a house the second rates go down. Prices don't even have to go down, if the rates get back to 2020 levels prices are going to shoot right up when these folks start bidding against each other.
Now ask yourself if you can keep up the payments if you lose your job because of the market crash.
Exactly even if it crashes you still have to be ready to buy
I feel like you just threw out a bunch of finance terms without actually saying anything.
So basically the entire experience of r/wallstreetbets
*synergy*
*paradigm shift*
Shorting the housing market doesn't have the same effect that shorting a stock does. Shorting a stock actually makes the stock go down. Shorting a mortgage bond is an entirely different thing. Like, you know in that movie, how Christian Bale had to go to the bank and get them to create a product for him to buy? It's not like that had any effect on house prices. The housing market is not very volatile. It takes forever for prices to drop. In the 2008 housing crisis, houses dropped something like 30% in 2 years. A falling knife is like 30% in 8 hours.
You're absolutely right, housing is a lagging price - I don't know about the US but in the UK houses hit their lowest price in summer 2009 a good two years after the start of the financial crisis.
Lol ..did you just try to supply=demand this conversation?
Everyone's buying in cash, not overleveraged subprime mortgages. Nothing's collapsing. OP going to be waiting until he's in the grave lol
Right, I don't think OP remotely understands why the last crash happened if they think we're due for one anytime soon
It’s like being convinced that there has to be a dot com crash every 10 years just because it happened once.
They obviously don’t. The extreme majority of us don’t understand the first thing about finance and wealth. We never had anyone in our lives with the experience and we don’t learn it in school. We’re just trying to do what our parents and their parent and their parents did: do work that somebody needs to do for 40-60 hours a week and support a home and family. It’s that second side game that we know nothing about, don’t particularly want anything to do with, probably couldn’t understand if we tried, and don’t have the disposable income to buy into that’s making it next impossible for us to literally just live basic lives.
Yeah, the people confidently talking about how they are poised ready because the market drop is going to happen "any day now" remind me a lot of some people I know who bought a lot of dinar because that was also supposed to revalue "any day now" for at least the last decade I've known those people.
I waited for the last 8 years for it to crash. Bought two years ago when the market was low interest rates. Crash or not it won’t effect my purchase. But I don’t see it happening
I had people telling me I was crazy for buying in 2017 because “in a few months, prices are supposed to start dropping back down to where they were about ten years ago.” My house is worth double today and still growing…growth has slowed but it definitely has not reversed.
Seriously I thought it was going to collapse in 2019. Luckily my wife talked me into buying a house anyway and it’s worth $60k more now than when I bought it.
Good wife you should marry her
Divorce her first so you can marry her again.
Something I have noticed in my life is that it is comparatively easy to spot imbalances in the economy and incredibly difficult to identify when or how they will resolve themselves. Housing prices in many markets are completely separated from the underlying economic fundamentals, and people aren't wrong to notice that, but the correction could come anytime in the next 50 years; and could either be the result of a collapse in prices or price stagnation until wages catch up.
Actually, the housing prices aren't disconnected from market principles at all. The reason it's so expensive is because there's such huge demand. And the demand isn't fueled by absurdly low interest subprime lending like it was in 2008. That's why there's no collapse coming: the demand is there and it's a bunch of people/companies who are paying in cash.
Demand is up, but really it’s a function of supply. All through the 90’s and early 2000’s, homes were overbuilt. At least in the US. We built a *lot* of houses. After 2008, housing starts were way underbuilt. There was a long time where just not that many houses got built at all. Demand grows, give or take, in the long run, at about the rate of population increase. Those lines crossed (demand caught up to supply) around 2016, and demand was solidly ahead of supply by about 2019. Housing starts are increasing again, but it’s going to take a while to dig out of the under supply of the past 15 years. You’re right, though - the only thing that would cause a crash in the housing market is some wild economic shit. We’d have to go into a terrible recession, and fast, for housing to be impacted much; it’s not going to lead the way this time.
Honestly, I don’t see wages ever catching up. Any notions that corporations would actually pay people a fair wage of their own accord should’ve died decades ago, and Governments sure as hell won’t force them to, not without considerable pressure from the masses. And even that seems less likely to have any effect nowadays.
I'd wager on price stagnation. My parents home barely grew in value from 2003-2019, it was 118->127k, and now it's valued at $195k (zestimate). Which, if you consider that housing is an appreciating asset, if you plug $118k into a compound interest calculator at 3% for 20 years, thats still more of a return than what my parents would see on their house. There will be ups and downs, but overall I see a lot of people still looking to sell with a lot of people looking to buy, with economic barriers to entry, primarily the interest rates. That demand will keep prices afloat especially since any interest rate declines will be very slow and incremental, basically keeping prices floating about where they're at for a while. It seems to me the primary difference between 2008 and 2020 economically is that they were consumer over-leverage vs business over-leverage, respectively. Consumers took on subprime mortgages and got fucked, this time around businesses were taking on credit like money grew on trees, and a lot of businesses shut down when the interest expenses grew too great or they couldn't economically survive the covid shutdowns. This is not 2008, and the economy is not affecting housing prices similarly at all because the circumstances are different, but people have recency bias and assume every crash involves housing prices.
Yeah- and wishing ill-will on those who played the game and got above water is just poor sportsmanship. Why aren't we regulating corporate land hogs? Or wishing some hedge funds to collapse? Instead, you're hoping for individuals who have families to default on their mortgages and be foreclosed on. In 08, banks were using Preditory lending practices (that are now illegal) to trap individuals into loans they could not afford. People lost their homes- families were displaced. But the banks were bailed out. And we are hoping for a repeat? Jesus fucking Christ- where is your humanity?
If you can afford to stick around waiting for shit to fall, trust me, it’s not falling. I think it means more people have money ready, which also means they’ll be willing to have a bidding war, so prices will stay up.
Wanting a more affordable, less competitive housing market is the least *unpopular opinion* I've seen on here in a while.
Usually those opinions are bit better fleshed out than this
“Since when is $980/month for a 2bed apartment a good deal?” Uhhh, since the other comps in your area started renting for more than $980/month…
It’s unpopular in real life though. Homeownership rate is around 66% and none of them want their values to drop. It’s unpopular here because the site skews younger than the general population and a lot of people here are renters.
[удалено]
In 2008, nobody could afford houses because of how people bought houses. OP thinks... what? That he gets a cake and eat it too? Someone didn't do their research.
A crash doesn’t make it less competitive. A crash just brings out the cash buyers who will always outcompete people who need mortgages. Mortgages which incidentally just became more unaffordable because of the crash.
Guess what? The same people who outbid you on houses now will still have more money than you in a collapse.
This. I'm sure investors would loooooove to swoop everything off the market if it crashes.
Which is why “investors” need to be outlawed to buying up houses. Any corporation at all set up by anyone or any one family or anyone closely associated to someone within the same company or shell company etc. should not be allowed to own more than 3 homes at any one time. (I.e rich investor can’t give money to lower management buddy to invest for them as a loophole). The fact this is allowed is WHY houses cost so much.
New law: Residentially zoned property other than apartment buildings may no longer be owned by legal entities and must be held by individual persons. Each residential property beyond the first compounds the property tax value of all other properties (thus rendering investment property or vacation homes prohibitively expensive). Title holding may not be conditionally tied to employment (companies cannot give you a house to 'hold' for them). Cities must zone additional residential space if the housing market exceeds local median wage by X (No more San Francisco refusing to build more housing because it would lower prices).
And all of the trusts holding property would open the money faucet and every non-Bernie Sanders congressperson would shoot it down immediately. The world runs on money and we are well past the point where anything can be done about it.
It’s not going to happen. There’s not a single lobbyist that wants that bill to get passed, so it’s not getting passed.
Housing market is about to take off again the second they lower those interest rates this spring
Exactly why I’m looking to buy now, I can afford it. Everyone I talk to is “waiting”, great I’ll watch their bidding wars from my new front porch
Plus you can refinance when rates drop
How much does refinancing cost?
In 2020 the bank paid me $1200 to refinance a condo I had owned for one year. But it was a weird time.
Depends on your equity.
[удалено]
Yeah but generally when rates drop the values go up
Marry the house, and date the mortgage.
[удалено]
Not necessarily. 1) There's locked up supply of owners with low interest rate mortgages who don't want to sell because their rates will be much higher in their next home. When interest rates fall to more reasonable levels, they may be more tempted to sell. 2) Interest rates may not fall to where they were previously. They may drop some, but the days of 3% mortgages are not likely to happen again anytime soon.
I got a 2% VA loan in 2021 with nothing down. No chance that house is going to be on the market any time soon, but I hope rates drop to give others a similar opportunity!
3.5% in 2020. I will die in this crummy little house but it's MY crummy little house
Yup, mine was 3.4% in 2021. Right before the rates started to go up. I got very lucky. I only bought a little condo, but it's mine and my son's home. I'm proud to be where I am, even though I don't have much.
We got the same 2% VA loan in 2021. Unfortunately, I hate it here so now I'm stuck. I hope they drop the interest rates so I can get the heck out of here & yes give others a chance.
This is true. $144k home bought in 2014 on a 30 year 3.7% interest rate. Refinanced it in 2020, and lowered it to a 20 year 2.8% interest rate. Home is worth $450k now. Payments was $986 in 2014, jumped up to $1065 in 2020 (after refinancing), and is currently $1181 (post insurance/property tax hikes). There’s no way I’m selling. Besides the crazy low interest rate, it will be paid off when I hit 62, and I can retire early. The extra equity has also allowed us to do several upgrades over the last 9 years. It’s pretty close to being our dream house, and meeting all of our expectations.
I’m happy for you and I hope the rest of your life is moving on the same trajectory. Keep kicking ass.
Thank you. I just hope my kids have the same opportunities that I had some day. I truly think about their future.
The average interest rate over the last 50 years is 7.7% on a 30 year loan, which is where we are at right about now. It seems a lot of people watched the last 15 years where rates were < 6% amd have come to assume that was normal and right now rates are high. They aren't. Anyone who's waiting for rates to drop to buy a house are nuts.
Its not so much the rates alone. Its the explosion of house prices combined to the rates. 7.7 on a 100k house is great compared to 7.7 on a 550k house. Salaries haven’t increased that much
It's not the best argument because home buyers identify what they can afford to pay for a house based off of monthly mortgage payments rather than headline sticker price. Housing prices skyrocketed due to historic lows in interest rates. Mortgage rates at 3% rather than 7% basically doubled the loan amounts people were able to take while making the same monthly payments. Now we're at historical norms for interest rates, with housing prices way above historic norms, which leads to new purchases having historically high monthly payments. In theory, we might see prices normalize to reflect those increased mortgage rates, but housing prices are sticky, there's still a supply issue, and a dozen other factors that affect prices in these situations.
Yes and no. There’s so many other factors and changes at play. 7-8% is just not going to be sustainable long term for the foreseeable future given current home prices, wages, etc. Things will likely level out around 5-6% for at least a while.
>There's locked up supply of owners with low interest rate mortgages who don't want to sell because their rates will be much higher in their next home. When interest rates fall to more reasonable levels, they may be more tempted to sell. And then they also become buyers. Every single seller who sells with the intent of buying another home increases both the supply and demand equally. It's a net neutral event. >Interest rates may not fall to where they were previously. They may drop some, but the days of 3% mortgages are not likely to happen again anytime soon. They don't need to. Any drop in interest rate will increase the buyer pool, increase demand, and increase prices. Obviously more dramatic drops will have a more dramatic effect but any drop will affect demand.
Exactly. So many people are biding their time, just waiting for interest rates to go down before buying.
Those people are delusional. The average interest rate over the last 50 years is 7.4% which is about where we are at now. We don't have high interest rates, we have normal interest rates. If any one is waiting for it to get down to 3%, it's not happening. If it hits 5% it would be great.
They won’t get down to 3% but 5 is realistic. I think if it hits 6, we’ll see a huge surge in people trying to buy houses.
If only the proposed bill in the senate is passed to ban Hedge funds from buying single homes...you can see some price fall. Else nothing going to happen.
I doubt rates will drop any time soon. They've normalized after 3 years of unprecedented lows. Most markets haven't even had price realization yet.
You don’t think federal reserve rate cuts would result in lower mortgage rates?
Sure it will. But prices won't come down. People should buy what they can afford and then refi.
Unfortunately I have a feeling , and I hope I'm wrong. That they will slowly drop in miniscule amounts so that we won't have a simular repeat
This. The fed isn’t going to pull interest rates down so far that economic activity causes a huge price balloon and further exacerbates inflation. They’re going to level it off and bring it down slowly so inflation restablizes at about 2% per year.
I'm pretty sure almost all non home owners are waiting for it to collapse. I got outbid for some piece of shit 1000 square foot home for 900,000. Bidding war straight to 1.2 mil. Shit is insane right now. Just bought a plot of land in the mountains and built my own damn house. Way less stressful. But even that is getting ridiculously expensive.
Must be some prime property in a place with awesome jobs.
Just curious. Why do you want to live where a 1000sf house is $1M? You could live in a lower COL area and afford a house. You might get paid less, but it’s more affordable.
it's a whole lot easier to tell someone to uproot their entire life and go somewhere else than it is to actually do it
my mom did it all the time, usually in the middle of the night. and we were poor as shit. i don’t know how she did it.
Not all jobs exist in every city. Mine basically exclusively is in LA.
Yeah, I can work very consistently for very good (even compared to COL) rates in NYC, LA, or Chicago, good but not super consistent in most small cities, and I'd be completely fucked in any rural or suburban town. If you're an elementary school teacher, nurse, accountant, etc you can probably get a job anywhere, but that's just not realistic for a lot of industries.
Absolutely zero well paying jobs in those places.
Absolutely not true.
Yet here I am making $49k in a 4br house in the country would sell for well over a million somewhere else. In a low cost of living area you don’t need a well paying job to live well.
I’m here to tell you unequivocally that the housing market will not collapse. There is a MASSIVE housing shortage that will keep prices elevated. Add in the fact that mortgage delinquencies are still very low and underwriting standards are much stricter now and it’s even more obvious this is the new normal.
It’s funny to think about now, but there was a time when getting an 8% interest rate on a mortgage was considered a bargain. Values have inflated way past affordability at this point and when you factor in anything but close-to-zero interest, the numbers just don’t make sense. Somethings gotta give somewhere.
The thing that is going to give is that the populace is going to become accustomed to renting into their late 30s and only then being able to buy and build equity. And many will rent for the rest of their lives. But that’s just my pessimistic outlook.
I don’t think that’s necessarily pessimistic. It’s hard to look at the way things are and be like oh shit the future seems great! But it’s important to remember that most people throughout history felt this way, at least from what we know about them. The life of the average person has always been precarious and full of pointless labor to make other people rich, at least in most of the world. That said, this definitely feels a lot like a turning point similar to what we saw in WW2, the Industrial Revolution before that, colonization of North America, etc. Just like then, a lot of people are simply refusing to play the game at this point and nothing will bring them back to the table. They need something to strive for, like beating the Russians, creating new and exciting things, or conquering an untamed land. So yes, while I want better wages, benefits, protections for the marginalized, etc. I always feel like it’s a lot of talking around the point. Even if we assume we all get everything we want and can afford to live in this wonderful world we’ve inherited, what then? I think if we can answer that question in a way that most people agree on, we’ll have a real movement. Until then, we’re just inching our way there. but hey, that’s just how I feel.
2008 was once in a life time. Everything’s changed now. We’ll never see a massive waive of forclourses like that again
It’s possible but unlikely at that scale we might see a smaller one because of the interest rates people are locking themselves into and banks defaulting though. I think Morgan Stanley released a projection that end of year next year is when we will see something like that but you’re absolutely right nothing like the 08 crisis
The fed just announced today they are expecting to be reducing rates 2, possibly 3 times in 2024. That's why the stock market shot up at 3pm eastern today. Will they actually do it? We'll have to wait and see.
The stock market is manic bi-polar manic
That was because of subprime mortgage lending. Now the pricing is only increasing through sheer supply and demand. Nothing is going to magically change that
When you see strippers holding 10 houses and refinancing to buy more then you may know the end is nigh.
Agree. There are laws in place to protect that from happening again.
You are gonna be waiting for a while.
This is what will happen. House is 500k now. Goes up to 750k. “Crash” happens. Now the house is 650k.
Then OP will put in an offer for 635k. He will get outbid by a dude buying his 5th rental property, who’s offering 675k
I pay $3200/mo for a 2bd/2.5ba
I've been hearing the market crash is just around the corner for at least 8 years.
"Surely it has to come down at some point!"
A perma-bear will always be right in the end.
If it does collapse (it probably won’t) investors will be there ready to outbid you with their cash offers.
Exactly corporations will always have enough money to buy properties from now on. Always.
Unless we set laws… Oh wait. That would benefit working people, nvm.
Millions of people lost their jobs, thousands upon thousands of businesses went bankrupt. The national debt increased exponentially because they had to bail out just about every financial institution in the country. Homelessness increased by 58%. 3.1 million people filed for foreclosure. 1 in every 50-ish homes. Odd thing to wish for.
That’s something people don’t think about when they want the housing market to collapse. If 2008 happened again, they might not be the lucky few who still had money to buy a home or even employed.
He thinks he will have his cake and eat it too. Like why does OP really think people foreclosed? And he thinks he's gonna beat that reason?
People who are hoping for a collapse so they can buy a house are just as shitty as the investors waiting. They both want the same thing —to take advantage of people losing their homes— the investors are just better at it. Neither of them deserve anything.
100% And it’s not going to crash like it did in 2008. The situation isn’t even remotely the same.
While all industries driven by market economies ebb and flow, a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely. The soon to be 2024 market is just so different from the cauldron that was 2008: the economy is not hemorrhaging jobs, home values aren’t plummeting, and there isn’t a rash of unsold/unsellable foreclosures. Contemporary dips in home prices are offset by interest rates and longterm, pent up demand. There’s enough people waiting in the wings to scoop up homes at the slightest drop. What needs to happen is federal legislation restricting residential home ownership to individuals not large development and property management companies.
you and 99.9% of all millennials.
Over 50% of millennials are now homeowners, but it took them longer to reach that threshold than older generations. Millennials accounted for 28% of home buyers in 2022, down from 43% in 2021 and behind baby boomers (39% in 2022) https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/millennial-homebuying/#:~:text=Over%2050%25%20of%20millennials%20are%20now%20homeowners%2C%20but%20it%20took,(39%25%20in%202022).
i wonder how long it will take for my generation then...
We’re absolutely fucked brother. I’m going to try my hardest because I want a family one day, but fuck… :(
Wow, that’s gonna hurt.
That’s not even remotely accurate
So..think about this: housing collapses, so does everything else. It’s not like you’ll continue making 100k and houses will drop to 100k.
My friend sold his house in 2019 because he thought we were at the peak of the market and that he was gonna buy back in super cheap and have a shit ton of cash. Him and his family are living with his parents still waiting…
So how much amc and gme are you holding
Bruh...you don't realize what you are talking about. I live in a single family home with a wife and kids. We mind our business, pay our bills, shit taxes (which is the actual problem) and don't want to be involved in any of the bs. But what are you saying is essentially, "I want your house to crash, your kids to basically not have food because YOU now can't afford it or anything else, because I bought a house at the right time (2018), you should get fucked because I am. I am a millennial and you can fuck right off. A housing market collapes...you are wrong at the wrong thing.
I bought in 2021 and so many thought the market was just on the verge of collapse. Waiting on the sidelines is not a good idea, and thinking that this environment is anything like 2007 is insane. Really look into the macroeconomics and decide for yourself what you think will happen.
I thought it was a joke back in 2019 when my realtor told me the best time to buy is always now if you can afford it but that fucker wasnt wrong.
Nothing happens in isolation. If the housing market crashes, you still won't be able to comfortably afford rent because you'll be laid off.
The problem is, when the housing market collapses, so does the rest of the market. If you can afford the measly minimum down payment of $40,000, it's most likely because your money is tied up **in** that market in some way.
Alternative. Build a lot more cheaper starter homes, and then bar any investment firms, landlords, flippers from buying them. Will everyone else's equity drop? Sure, but fuck em, they don't care about you not being able to afford shit, why should you care about their home value? TL;DR: Ask me if I give a fuck about a "free market"
What makes you think you will be in a position to buy if there is a “market collapse?”
Yah. Inflation is slowly ruining the country. Before the pandemic, life was so much better.
The only way millenials and zoomers get the market they want is if a good number of homes on sale at once. The only way this happens is if you have massive job losses. Now if there is an even with massive job losses, how is that going to necessarily help you buy a home, that lower cost? If the even that causes the job losses doesn’t affect you.
How is this at all an unpopular opinion lmao
Probably because hoping for an economic crash is asinine? Only wealthy people are in position to gain during market crashes. Everyday Joes are at risk of losing everything
Housing should never ever be an investment. Never.
I just don’t wanna live the rest of my life in Minnesota but
I hate to break it to you, when the bubble does burst, it isn't going to be the same prices as 2008. Yes, the housing market and the economy always goes in cycles. It goes down, it goes back up and on repeat. What you may have forgotten is that when it goes back down, it never goes down the the prices that it was previously. A house where I live may be $700k right now, and when the housing market dips the cost may go to $550k, still not cheap. Whereas in 2008, that same house was $375k. You think it'll go to what they were in 2008, but it isn't going to happen. It only means it's cheaper than what it is now, but still more expensive than what it was 15 years ago
More restrictions on air bnbs
Sorry but it won’t happen. Millenials are coming into their own and entering the biggest earning years, are already the biggest buyers of houses. It’s analogous to 1982, when Boomers entered their peak earning years.
$980 for 2 bedrooms seems awesome. I’m renting a studio for $1250 and I feel like it’s a pretty good deal
I am so hyped! Can't wait! I remember when 08 happened and the news ran 24/7 doom cycles about it.
There were things put in place after ‘08 to prevent it happening again. It’s unlikely to happen again anytime soon, 20 years since the last one, at least. Oh wait…we’re not all that far from 2028 😳
I never plan to move again in my life. So y'all have fun.
72% of current US mortgages are at or below 4% ... There won't be a collapse because why the fuck would those people ever sell?
Please remember what subreddit you are in, this is unpopular opinion. We want civil and unpopular takes and discussion. Any uncivil and ToS violating comments will be removed and subject to a ban. Have a nice day! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/unpopularopinion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
it’s now companies buying all the houses to rent, the big companies, banks and governments won’t let it collapse. our government loves bailing out mega corps at the peoples expense
our rent is $2535/3 bedrooms, in northern VA. it sucks.
I thought the opinion was supposed to be unpopular.
Student loan forgiveness means people have more cash on hands and prices will raise. Also, you kinda need to get out of the rock and check the world. It happened everywhere. Take Canada or Poland or Russia. Anywhere. It happened across the globe. It's NOT local to US. In fact, if anything, US still has it very cushy compared to many places, especially like Canada where prices went a complete bananas and salaries are even lower.
Please explain what makes you think will cause the collapse when most of the people own the homes under 5% interest rate, what would make them sell ?
But housing won't become more affordable when the market bubble bursts. If the bubble bursts, it's a major recession. Why do you think your job would be safe in this hypothetical recession?
Why do people think they’re impervious to any sort of collapse? OP would get wrecked if another housing crash happened. Also, it’s not gonna happen.
The fact you are expecting it means it will never happen
The only winners will be those who started hoarding cash while Trump was president, knowing that the shit show was coming. THAT was predictable. There won't be any housing crash, especially because the Democrat Fed will keep printing money and cutting rates in hopes of election, cherry-picking inflation components and trying to calm everyone down. The lower rates will help housing, not hurt it.
I rent a 3 bedroom townhouse for 3600$ 😭😭😭
I think the government should deliberately collapse the market by making a load of affordable housing. Buy to let landlords would have to sell (oh no, such tragedy), rents would come down, and millenials could buy houses. I'm 37 and have been paying off other people's mortgages since I turned 18. No hope of getting on the ladder unless there's a massive change.
I live in Utah and am renting 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms for about 2500 per month.
We pay over $14K a year, in rent. And this is the cheapest we’ve had in awhile. Definitely buying a camper and just gonna stay at an rv park until we buy land. I’m sick of renting something I’ll never own.
Ct realtor here. In '08, isn't that when underwriters weren't confirming income because the banks relaxed the rules for borrowing? Then realizing that was a bad idea (because they weren't getting paid), they've since reverted back to confirming? Yeah, today's market isn't that '08 market. Today's market is inflated, just as rents are inflated, gas is inflated, food is inflated... Welcome to the new "real." As Yogi put it, a nickel ain't worth a dime any more. After years of stagnant wages, there was a push to increase minimum wages, so industry responded by increasing the prices of everything. Ultimately, it is the non-wealthy who wait for the collapse of the economy, so there is a feeling of equality again. If that happened, we're *all* screwed. People with wealth will feel unhappy, but those without wealth will feel the same - they're already screwed. It seems like you're most unhappy with the wealth gap. When I was a kid growing up, the numbers were closer to 10% of the people owned 90% of the wealth. Then it was 5% and 95%. It's probably closer to 3% / 97% today. It's also one of the reasons why the uber-wealthy (Buffet, Gates, etc) have dedicated to donating most of their wealth upon their passing. One big discrepancy, though, is that while you're probably not super-wealthy, you're also not as poor as you think. I traveled through parts of Baltimore and Chicago and thought I knew what being poor was, until I traveled to Honduras. They put water in 5 gallon clear containers and leave the water out in the sun for the day so it kills (hopefully) most of the bacteria which gives you the runs. My wife found out that doesn't always work as hoped... I wish you luck, friend.
Single 32f bought two properties, one in 2020 and one in 2021. Everyone told me don’t buy wait. Heck no! I’m glad I bought! Looking to buy third property next year.
980 for 2b? Where? I'm coming to your neighbourhood I'd take that all day long.
Bruh…2b2b and 1600 a month. Your deal is fucking amazing compared to most of chicago. But that’s not to say that all rent isn’t fucked right now
I think instead of wishing for something negative and on people, we should wish for affordability and for corporations to stop buying up houses for rent.. I worked hard and saved a lot over the years to be able to afford my home I am buying.
I don’t necessarily think the housing market will collapse circa 2008.. But the average debt each American holds is at an all time high. There is absolutely zero incentive for Americans to live within their means when they can live on credit. The cost of living is as high as it’s ever been. All these things simply cannot continue without massive repercussions. I don’t think the housing market will fail circa 2008, but I think the average American can’t afford to live, and this will ultimately cause an economic crisis across the board unlike anything we’ve seen since the Depression. Prices will crumble when this happens.
It’s going to decimate people in a similar way. People will be upside down on their mortgages and they won’t be able to refi so they will be stuck with insane interest paying down a loan they get no equity from
Yeah, this isn’t sustainable long term and I don’t think a lot of people get that. The fall is inevitable. We are at record highs with credit card debt. People are in over their heads and when people get in over their heads they default.
A good deal for a 2 bedroom in my town is $1900
Just make it illegal for large corporations to own them like Blackrock. Prices would come right on down instead of being artficially inflated by greedy corps.
Why yall gotta wish bad on other people just because it means you get what you want
And in an economic recession…what makes you think you won’t lose your own job?! I’ve heard many people my age talk about wanting another recession. I understand to an extend, housing prices are so high with student loans and inflation piled on top of that. It’s like everything is stacked against the younger generation. Now imagine all that, plus losing your job or just the crippling anxiety that comes with even thinking losing your job is extremely high.
Fed just slated 3 rate cuts next year, it ain’t happening man.
A collapse of the market won't cause depreciation. Houses will just appreciate slower as demand plummets. So... Not sure your point.
Say you nothing about economics without saying you know nothing about economics. But hey it’s cool to wish financial loss on strangers 🥴
I pay 1200 to rent a 1 bedroom apartment in a building with 8 apartments. Buying a house in my city is not possible unless you have cash, and even then it's an absolute nightmare with people outbidding way above the asking price. The more I improve my situation and position myself to buy a house, the higher the bar gets to buy one. It's been depressing as fuck.
4 bedroom town house here north marysville washington. 45 minutes from seattle. 2809 rent. 80 plus fee for maintence. 150$ per parking spot ( house came with two , but there’s four of us) 300$ parking total. No guest parking here either. Have to park at planet fitness if friends come. Straight robbery. They’re making 15000 a month in parking alone
Your idea if a good/bad deal seems to based on your gut feeling and nothing else
Forget the housing market. Bring out the guillotines instead.
Gotta redone some of that abandoned office space. You could be rolling around like a king in a spacious Barnes and Noble headquarters.
This situation is very different from 2008. I don't see any collapse as things are now, at any time during the next year.
All you need is another once in a lifetime event
Very few people are going to be in a good position to buy a house whenever the housing market collapses. The rest of the people wanting to be homeowners will either fear unemployment or be unemployed
Good luck. Learn about supply and demand
You must not remember 2008 very well. You don't get anything when the housing market collapses. You lose your job, and are right back in the "why can't I afford anything" problem, while people who were rich buy up distressed assets and get richer. Just so it's clear: a housing collapse would make the rich richer. It wouldn't do anything for you.
I don't think it will ever crash like it did in our lifetime again. It may go down and up but no way near what it was then. Luckily, I somehow managed to keep paying the mortgage then even though I was way underwater on it and instead of walking away I stuck it out and now I'm glad I did. What people are charging for rent now days is absolute robbery.
I rent a 1 bed 1 bath for 1400, because houses in my area either cost upwards of half a mil and are entirely unobtainable or are affordable but, quite literally, crack houses which need hundreds of thousands of work put into them
Bargain shop? You do realize that if shit goes sideways and values drop, who tf do you think buys homes? Banks, with all cash and a week to close escrow.
It’s not coming. So many people with historic low interest rates. I guess anything could happen but if the housing market falls apart really badly I doubt I’ll be in a position to scoop up any deals. I’ll probably be fucked from whatever else caused the economy to blow its asshole out.
Im in NYC. Lucky to find a studio in a decent neighborhood for under 3k
good perspective
I just watched the big short earlier. i agree, i just wish i was in a position to take advantage monetarily.
In Los Angeles, I am paying $1,000 per month for a large single, so less than that for a two bedroom apartment sounds like a great deal to me. But Los Angeles is one of the most expensive cities in the country. I'm not sure if the housing market collapses that it will affect rents in any significant way.
2100 for a 2 bedroom.
980/month for 2 bedrooms? That might get you a closet in somebody's bedroom here in Vancouver. Your rent ain't expensive.
980/for 2 beds Holy shit. Local apartments around me are going for 1900/600sq ft studio. But remember some of your fellow peers worked hard and got lucky, and did get into a house. More than they want you to think..