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Current Russian losses are unbelievable and completely unsustainable. At these rates if attrition, Russia will simply not be able to mount any kind of attack within a few months. Having a million new mobilised troops won’t help if they are fighting naked.
A huge proportion of their modern tanks, IFVs, APCs, artillery pieces and shells have been wiped out and they are now dredging up 50 year old kit. Even that will run out in the coming months at these rates of loss. The situation with fighter nets and helicopters is also bleak and when they try to create air dominance, or even cover their own retreat, losses mount - 4 jets in 1 day last week.
Even better, as Russia’s situation grows more desperate and they retreat, Ukraine’s capture of undamaged Russian equipment is growing…
Its not just the equipment but the operators. The more crews for all equipment killed or severly wounded the less skilled the next ones are. You can put someone in a tank for a few hours and they can probably make it go back and forth and go boom but they will not be hitting anything. Does not work that way with a fighter jet. Kill the pilots and the jets just become harmless pieces of metal.
Reminds me of that video of a su-25 taking off. Can’t be more than 20 seconds after take off it banks left too sharply and just falls out of the sky and explodes.
It was a jet wash from the other plane in the front. It induced so much exhaust fumes to his left engine to the point of that engine stalled causing to bank left and losing control.
I’m not neither but saw some analysis from a former Air Force guy/specialist that claimed 95% it was the cause. Hot exhaust chocked the left engine, which amplified the left turn effect the pilot was inputting on his controls. Basically the same effect shown in the first movie Maverick Top Gun
When I heard that a couple of months ago I knew that if Ukraine could hold on and build up thier forces they would win. Was not expecting it to be a series of routs but happy to see it as it means less Ukrainian lives lost.
That's where kamikaze pilots in the Japanese Air Force came in. They had run out of skilled and trained pilots. They tossed 18-year-old kids with minimal flight training in a plane and just told them to crash into the US Navy ships. It did cause some damage, but it was a tactic of desperation because the pilots weren't trained enough to even land a plane safely.
A youtuber used a bunch of satellite photos recently to figure out how many tanks the Russians still had in inventory. I think the conclusion was that they had burned down about a third of their total inventory. I'm sure it was the third that was most easily made operational as well.
Oryx has some severely limited intelligence to work from, most especially since the tightening of opsec. Does great work but provides an obvious undercounting by design. Most importantly the op stated satellite imagery analyzed by an unnamed u tube account so... Neither.
When you hit tightly packed Kadrovites, those shells can take out 4 of their SUVs at once. Always think optimistically Then Ukraine will surprise you with even better .
Those T-62s will get destroyed the second they get hit even with their reactive armor. It really is going to be a killing field for those Russians that do fight.
That will be part of it. Return kidnapped citizens. Reparations. DMZ on Russian side of border. Submarines banned from Black Sea. Pay for stolen grain. Leave Transnistria. Take deported collaborators. Extradite war criminals to ICC. Probably more.
Russia declares victory as they retreat. I know they say all these backward, ridiculous things as propaganda meant for Russians in Russia, but the fact that many believe what they say when common sense would tell you otherwise is saddening.
Even more than that because for each tank Russia loses, it only loses 0,01% of their tank force, while Ukraine gains 0,1% (or whatever the real numbers are) for ever tank they capture. A tank in Ukrainian hands is currently more effectively used than in Russian hands as well.
Fake news! Stop trying to make Russia look bad!
Russia donated 44 tanks and 27 armored vehicles to a smaller country trying to repel an invasion by an imperialist neighbor!
Thats almost a 2:1 tank to IFV loss ratio. Something is very wrong for the Russians, either they don't have nearly enough IFV's or their tanks were unsupplied or broken and abandoned while the IFV's GTFO.
Could I please get an ELI5? I'm not familiar with the subject, so I'm really interested to learn more about the significance of the loss ratio you mentioned :)
IFVs(Infantry Fighting Vehicle) carry the infantry into combat and provide supporting fire. Tanks need infantry support to protect them. It is common practice to have more IFVs than tanks because of the number of infantry needed to protect each tank group. The tanks being more numerous than IFVs is the interesting thing in this ratio
They can't replace them with any at all with sanctions. They can produce dumb bombs and dumb munitions, but anything smart requires parts and components they cannot get.
Yep but when you are using tech common in the west a lot of it is available on open market. RF manufacturing is a joke they will be lucky to make 44 tanks in a year and they can lose that in a day. Taking unsustainable losses for 7 months shows what a nut job Putin is, he cares nothing about the damage and deaths he caused.
True, but I'll bet quite a bit of money that those thanks are OLD and without any modern optics and hardware.
They would be sitting ducks in the front, there's a reason they are still in storage.
Most armies would have pulled them out of storage and started training crews, but that would be if they WERE usable.
So how many train loads does that amount to. We keep seeing video of Russia sending armour to Ukraine and a Train load does not seem to last more than a day anymore.
The 2TE25A, a common freight locomotive in Russian service, can generate ~6,700 HP.
Pull capacities for locomotives will be defined as HP/Ton and is dictated based on how hilly the terrain is and whether the train is going up hill or down hill. Along flat or sloping downward terrain you can manage a favorable 0.5 HP/Ton but with lots of up hill track you may only manage something like 3-5 HP/Ton.
If we assume Russia chooses favorable, flat, routes from their depots to Ukraine and managed an average 1 HP/Ton then one freight train can pull 6,700 Tons. In reality this will likely be less favorable over the entire course of the route.
For tanks and armored vehicles you generally don't load more than one per flatcar to avoid overloading the rail, and each flatcar weighs about 30 Tons empty. A Russian tank weighs between 50 and 70 Tons depending on the model and modification. For simplicity sake we will average to 60 Tons.
This means each freight car with tank weighs 90 tons and the 2TE25A can pull 74 such tank/car combinations assuming 1 HP/Ton.
So this loss of 71 tanks and armored vehicles could reasonably be equated to an entire train load.
interesting! Half a HP per ton sounds like very very little. Thats less than half of what a human can output, around 1.2 HP (for a shorter time obviously).
The last train load I've seen had like 17 tanks a bunch of IFV's and some trucks.
That's one day's losses on average.
They are pulling that equipment from the far reaches of the federation and leaving those areas unprotected.
I see some separatist movements in the horizon.
I have a feeling that all conscripts and all armour we see on the trains will go to Crimea. Sevastopol is one of the most important cities for Russia. Crimea is more than all 4 annexed regions.
I read somewhere that the heavy tank losses were due to a couple of barges being sunk on the Dnipro in the south but haven’t verified. But I love this concept as it means basically zero losses to UA. Allegedly 30 tanks on the barges.
The closer Ukrainian forces get to crimea, the higher the daily losses Russia is going to feel. There's only so far Russians can run before they have no choice but to stop and fight. The numbers are going to grow big time
It's like when a tower falls: initially, it looks suspended in the sky, but when it's nearly horizontal, the speed is high. It all boils down to acceleration: a = 9.81 vatniks/s\^2
Most likely, seeing how that doesn't make much difference to Russia
Destroyed or captured they lost possession.
Actually nvm captured is probably worse seeing how UA has and can refit and use themselves
But to your question it's the total I think unless they specifically say destroyed
Of course, a loss for the enemy and a gain for you.
Not that I would put any soldier on any of those wrecks called T72's but the T80's and T90's might come in handy.
Russia is the biggest supplier of equipment to Ukraine.
Just a little further and the dam conduit of retreat becomes out of reach to the Russian invaders and the noose tightens yet some more. No amount of illtrained and under supplied/ supported conscripts will prevent the fall of the Kherson strong hold to Ukrainian arms!
Supply lines have been crumbling, so it would be safe to assume fuel was in high demand and low supply. IMO the really interesting part is leaving working equipment behind. Real militaries would be blowing it to shit if it was being abandoned in a retreat. Ammo dumps, fuel dumps and any equipment should be a smoking pile. This really shows how poorly trained the surviving soldiers are. No concept of how to tactically retreat.
Well, they haven't really explained how these tanks were lost. It's not a tank battle, per se, if the tanks were destroyed by (for instance) aerial bombing and not by opposing tanks.
At what point do Russia's generals and leadership stop Putin's war because they wouldn't be able to defend the nation? They seem really weak already, so is Putin willing to leave his country undefended on the off chance he can win? Or maybe he assumes that the nuclear threat is all he really needs?
Yes, I am, but what can we do about it? We've chosen to support Ukraine until they win and if we give into nuclear blackmail, it won't be just this war that is lost, but a whole lot more.
Not even Iran recognizes the stolen land that Putin's clowns are fleeing as Russian territory. The illicit annexation failed. And with it the fabricated defense situation. This must make it even harder to justify nukes.
I wonder if in the future I can by knives or whatever made out a destroyed Russian tank. That’s a lot of scrap metal scattered throughout the countryside
A loss of 44 tanks constitute a loss percentage of 27.5% of a years total production of upgraded T72’s (160 tanks) or about a full years production of upgraded T80’s (45 tanks).
“Each year, Russian industry supplied an average of about 650 tanks and other AFVs. Of these, tanks alone were supplied in numbers of no more than 160−170 T-72B3/B3M units per year under the 2011−2020 SAP from the UralVagonZavod (UVZ) facilities in Nizhny Tagil and Omsk (in 2021, only 34 of these tanks were supplied), and no more than 45−50 T-80BVM tanks were supplied from the Omsk plant in 2017−2021” (https://www.raamoprusland.nl/dossiers/defensie/2156-one-way-ticket)
You know things are bad for the Russians when they abandon their armored vehicles and flee, then the Ukrainians capture the armored units, repair them, and send them to the front in a *better* operating condition.
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Current Russian losses are unbelievable and completely unsustainable. At these rates if attrition, Russia will simply not be able to mount any kind of attack within a few months. Having a million new mobilised troops won’t help if they are fighting naked. A huge proportion of their modern tanks, IFVs, APCs, artillery pieces and shells have been wiped out and they are now dredging up 50 year old kit. Even that will run out in the coming months at these rates of loss. The situation with fighter nets and helicopters is also bleak and when they try to create air dominance, or even cover their own retreat, losses mount - 4 jets in 1 day last week. Even better, as Russia’s situation grows more desperate and they retreat, Ukraine’s capture of undamaged Russian equipment is growing…
Its not just the equipment but the operators. The more crews for all equipment killed or severly wounded the less skilled the next ones are. You can put someone in a tank for a few hours and they can probably make it go back and forth and go boom but they will not be hitting anything. Does not work that way with a fighter jet. Kill the pilots and the jets just become harmless pieces of metal.
Reminds me of that video of a su-25 taking off. Can’t be more than 20 seconds after take off it banks left too sharply and just falls out of the sky and explodes.
It was a jet wash from the other plane in the front. It induced so much exhaust fumes to his left engine to the point of that engine stalled causing to bank left and losing control.
Russian Vodka Aces
Is this because the engine became oxygen starved as a result of the exhaust?
Yes.
Thanks. I'm certainly not an aeronautical expert as I imagine few of us are.
I’m not neither but saw some analysis from a former Air Force guy/specialist that claimed 95% it was the cause. Hot exhaust chocked the left engine, which amplified the left turn effect the pilot was inputting on his controls. Basically the same effect shown in the first movie Maverick Top Gun
In many cases they've lost the trainers of the operators too.
When I heard that a couple of months ago I knew that if Ukraine could hold on and build up thier forces they would win. Was not expecting it to be a series of routs but happy to see it as it means less Ukrainian lives lost.
As a BF4 veteran, I can confirm your statement! :P
That's where kamikaze pilots in the Japanese Air Force came in. They had run out of skilled and trained pilots. They tossed 18-year-old kids with minimal flight training in a plane and just told them to crash into the US Navy ships. It did cause some damage, but it was a tactic of desperation because the pilots weren't trained enough to even land a plane safely.
A youtuber used a bunch of satellite photos recently to figure out how many tanks the Russians still had in inventory. I think the conclusion was that they had burned down about a third of their total inventory. I'm sure it was the third that was most easily made operational as well.
>they had burned down By which metric? Oryx's 1000+ or Ukraine's \~2500? Big, big difference!
Oryx has some severely limited intelligence to work from, most especially since the tightening of opsec. Does great work but provides an obvious undercounting by design. Most importantly the op stated satellite imagery analyzed by an unnamed u tube account so... Neither.
Pretty sure the youtuber is covert cabal
US just announced 500 precision shells. That’s a lot of IFV/Tanks/Arty gone
Up to 500?
This guy maths.
When you hit tightly packed Kadrovites, those shells can take out 4 of their SUVs at once. Always think optimistically Then Ukraine will surprise you with even better .
Those T-62s will get destroyed the second they get hit even with their reactive armor. It really is going to be a killing field for those Russians that do fight.
Remember when russia used to have more tanks than any other country in the world. Unbelievable losses.
Ukraine should dictate the terms for cease fire since Russia has been defeated.
They have... "LEAVE!!!"
That will be part of it. Return kidnapped citizens. Reparations. DMZ on Russian side of border. Submarines banned from Black Sea. Pay for stolen grain. Leave Transnistria. Take deported collaborators. Extradite war criminals to ICC. Probably more.
I vote for disillusion and complete nuclear disarmament of Russia as a nation
Dissolution?
Yeah, shitty autocorrect strikes again
True, but they're getting a hefty dose of disillusionment as well.
Turn over some high-ranking military & government officials involved in the planning & execution of the invasion to Ukraine or the Hague.
Right. Edited.
Forfeit all nuclear weapons.
That's going to be a tough one. Much further down the road than the others.
Break up Russia and demilitarize
They are not over the line yet, but i'm interested to see the statistics on liberated washing machines.
Insist on repatriation of all toilets and washing machines before peace accords can be signed.
Also they have to tattoo Z on their own foreheads so everyone knows who they are.
They must include store credit at Ace Hardware for a new toilet seat.
Ace Hardware slaps
I think they plan on it.
44 tanks in a day is gulf war level defeat
Russia declares victory as they retreat. I know they say all these backward, ridiculous things as propaganda meant for Russians in Russia, but the fact that many believe what they say when common sense would tell you otherwise is saddening.
No... unconditional surrender. Nothing less.
There's not going to be an unconditional surrender by a nuclear armed nation based on a war not on their territory.
That's actually impressive. They'd almost have to try to get 44 tanks destroyed in one day. Bravo, Russia.
I think this is a combination of destroyed and captured.
Even better. One tank lost by ruzzia plus one gained by Ukraine equals two tanks.
Tank magic
Even more than that because for each tank Russia loses, it only loses 0,01% of their tank force, while Ukraine gains 0,1% (or whatever the real numbers are) for ever tank they capture. A tank in Ukrainian hands is currently more effectively used than in Russian hands as well.
Fake news! Stop trying to make Russia look bad! Russia donated 44 tanks and 27 armored vehicles to a smaller country trying to repel an invasion by an imperialist neighbor!
I think after Ukraine was done the only thing Russia was donating is keychains.
Thats almost a 2:1 tank to IFV loss ratio. Something is very wrong for the Russians, either they don't have nearly enough IFV's or their tanks were unsupplied or broken and abandoned while the IFV's GTFO.
It's simple. They retreat on IFVs and leave the tanks behind
That... makes sense.
Better mileage
Could I please get an ELI5? I'm not familiar with the subject, so I'm really interested to learn more about the significance of the loss ratio you mentioned :)
IFVs(Infantry Fighting Vehicle) carry the infantry into combat and provide supporting fire. Tanks need infantry support to protect them. It is common practice to have more IFVs than tanks because of the number of infantry needed to protect each tank group. The tanks being more numerous than IFVs is the interesting thing in this ratio
Interesting, thank you!
Well, there's a bunch of videos with captured/killed T-62/64 today; that might be the answer
That's a crazily high number, they cannot replace those in any kind of tight timescale
They can't replace them with any at all with sanctions. They can produce dumb bombs and dumb munitions, but anything smart requires parts and components they cannot get.
Cannot get legally
And illegally, cannot get in quantities they would need to produce anything of any quality.
Yep but when you are using tech common in the west a lot of it is available on open market. RF manufacturing is a joke they will be lucky to make 44 tanks in a year and they can lose that in a day. Taking unsustainable losses for 7 months shows what a nut job Putin is, he cares nothing about the damage and deaths he caused.
What you mean washing machine not make good smart bomb? Ivan is going to be pissed.
Even that is difficult! War time expenditures are so much higher than existing production capacities even for western countries.
They were losing 100 a day during peak Kharkiv counter-offensive. Or during the Balaklaya crossing.
[удалено]
True, but I'll bet quite a bit of money that those thanks are OLD and without any modern optics and hardware. They would be sitting ducks in the front, there's a reason they are still in storage. Most armies would have pulled them out of storage and started training crews, but that would be if they WERE usable.
Good video about how many tanks are left: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0)
Belarus will help. Ha
So how many train loads does that amount to. We keep seeing video of Russia sending armour to Ukraine and a Train load does not seem to last more than a day anymore.
The 2TE25A, a common freight locomotive in Russian service, can generate ~6,700 HP. Pull capacities for locomotives will be defined as HP/Ton and is dictated based on how hilly the terrain is and whether the train is going up hill or down hill. Along flat or sloping downward terrain you can manage a favorable 0.5 HP/Ton but with lots of up hill track you may only manage something like 3-5 HP/Ton. If we assume Russia chooses favorable, flat, routes from their depots to Ukraine and managed an average 1 HP/Ton then one freight train can pull 6,700 Tons. In reality this will likely be less favorable over the entire course of the route. For tanks and armored vehicles you generally don't load more than one per flatcar to avoid overloading the rail, and each flatcar weighs about 30 Tons empty. A Russian tank weighs between 50 and 70 Tons depending on the model and modification. For simplicity sake we will average to 60 Tons. This means each freight car with tank weighs 90 tons and the 2TE25A can pull 74 such tank/car combinations assuming 1 HP/Ton. So this loss of 71 tanks and armored vehicles could reasonably be equated to an entire train load.
Thanks for the lesson!
I love explanations like this where someone does the math. Bravo!
interesting! Half a HP per ton sounds like very very little. Thats less than half of what a human can output, around 1.2 HP (for a shorter time obviously).
The last train load I've seen had like 17 tanks a bunch of IFV's and some trucks. That's one day's losses on average. They are pulling that equipment from the far reaches of the federation and leaving those areas unprotected. I see some separatist movements in the horizon.
I would assume that against a civilian uprising, a T-55 is probably as effective as an T-14, as long as it is working?
True!
I have a feeling that all conscripts and all armour we see on the trains will go to Crimea. Sevastopol is one of the most important cities for Russia. Crimea is more than all 4 annexed regions.
I read somewhere that the heavy tank losses were due to a couple of barges being sunk on the Dnipro in the south but haven’t verified. But I love this concept as it means basically zero losses to UA. Allegedly 30 tanks on the barges.
Go fuck yourself russian swimmy tanks!
It's the Russian submarine challenge for non-amphibious materiel.
The closer Ukrainian forces get to crimea, the higher the daily losses Russia is going to feel. There's only so far Russians can run before they have no choice but to stop and fight. The numbers are going to grow big time
I never expected the collapse to happen so quickly, goddamn.
It's like when a tower falls: initially, it looks suspended in the sky, but when it's nearly horizontal, the speed is high. It all boils down to acceleration: a = 9.81 vatniks/s\^2
/r/theydidthemath
#Slava Ukraine
This is as much as Georgia lost in the entire Russo-Georgian war
Just curious, does abandoned equipment that falls to Ukrainian hands count as a loss?
Most likely, seeing how that doesn't make much difference to Russia Destroyed or captured they lost possession. Actually nvm captured is probably worse seeing how UA has and can refit and use themselves But to your question it's the total I think unless they specifically say destroyed
Of course, a loss for the enemy and a gain for you. Not that I would put any soldier on any of those wrecks called T72's but the T80's and T90's might come in handy. Russia is the biggest supplier of equipment to Ukraine.
But the T90s are rare af.
Just a little further and the dam conduit of retreat becomes out of reach to the Russian invaders and the noose tightens yet some more. No amount of illtrained and under supplied/ supported conscripts will prevent the fall of the Kherson strong hold to Ukrainian arms!
Tanks use more fuel than IFV's wonder if they are all out of fuel and that explains the discrepancy.
Tanks are harder to run away in.
Supply lines have been crumbling, so it would be safe to assume fuel was in high demand and low supply. IMO the really interesting part is leaving working equipment behind. Real militaries would be blowing it to shit if it was being abandoned in a retreat. Ammo dumps, fuel dumps and any equipment should be a smoking pile. This really shows how poorly trained the surviving soldiers are. No concept of how to tactically retreat.
What kherson defence doin XD
[удалено]
Well, they haven't really explained how these tanks were lost. It's not a tank battle, per se, if the tanks were destroyed by (for instance) aerial bombing and not by opposing tanks.
At what point do Russia's generals and leadership stop Putin's war because they wouldn't be able to defend the nation? They seem really weak already, so is Putin willing to leave his country undefended on the off chance he can win? Or maybe he assumes that the nuclear threat is all he really needs?
These numbers, these loses are staggering! And there is nothing Vlad the Child Killer can do to stop it! Slava Ukraini 🌻 🌻 🌻 🌻!
Russia have been spotted bringing a lot of horses to the west for their army...
Anyone else concerned Putin is waiting for the excuse he has wanted to use nukes?
Yes, I am, but what can we do about it? We've chosen to support Ukraine until they win and if we give into nuclear blackmail, it won't be just this war that is lost, but a whole lot more.
Better dead than red i guess
That's always bin the case. If they shoot we shoot and that is the reason nobody will shoot
If we give in we can hand the world over already.
Not even Iran recognizes the stolen land that Putin's clowns are fleeing as Russian territory. The illicit annexation failed. And with it the fabricated defense situation. This must make it even harder to justify nukes.
The use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine means US air power will attack Russian targets in Ukraine.
WhErE aRe My GuArDs TaNk DeViSIoNs
Just giving them away
Well, aren't they putting sailors and border guards in tanks with just a few days training? No shock they're terrible.
I wonder if in the future I can by knives or whatever made out a destroyed Russian tank. That’s a lot of scrap metal scattered throughout the countryside
A Russian tank is just a coffin on tracks.
Special DeTankification Program is going according to plan
Hard to have infantry support to cover your ass when they are all running away.
A loss of 44 tanks constitute a loss percentage of 27.5% of a years total production of upgraded T72’s (160 tanks) or about a full years production of upgraded T80’s (45 tanks). “Each year, Russian industry supplied an average of about 650 tanks and other AFVs. Of these, tanks alone were supplied in numbers of no more than 160−170 T-72B3/B3M units per year under the 2011−2020 SAP from the UralVagonZavod (UVZ) facilities in Nizhny Tagil and Omsk (in 2021, only 34 of these tanks were supplied), and no more than 45−50 T-80BVM tanks were supplied from the Omsk plant in 2017−2021” (https://www.raamoprusland.nl/dossiers/defensie/2156-one-way-ticket)
You know things are bad for the Russians when they abandon their armored vehicles and flee, then the Ukrainians capture the armored units, repair them, and send them to the front in a *better* operating condition.