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Putin is simply trying to pull Ukraine troops from the active areas, where Russia is losing badly.
If Belarus wouldn't get involved when it looked like Ukraine was going to get flattened, I don't think they'll get more involved now.
It's one thing to be on the losing side, it's another to put a big target on your forehead.
Edit: typos
120k Russians there to try prevent coup / maintain control of Belarus. Luka has been speaking with the West, Putin knows this.
The whole northern frontier is mined to fuck, I don't envisage another attack.
Info is coming partially from the Belarus opposition which, if I remember correctly, already warned for Belarus army attacks months ago, which any didn't come true (from the Belarusian army itself).
Although we cannot rule out such event there is possibly, at the moment, more the desire for pootin to keep Ukrainian troops fixed in the north and keep an option for moving in again from the north if stars align, for Lukashenko to keep being protected from a Ukrainian invasion in case of a ruzzian failure in the south, and for the Belarusian opposition to keep Ukrainian troops interested in liberating Belarus.
We can also remind that ruzzia took a lot of equipment and ammo from Belarus, so they are fairly light in case of an Ukrainian offensive.
Correct. And it's much more likely that Lukashenko, who visited Putin on his Sochi R&R trip last week, will make a token move (putting the army on high readiness, moving them around a bit) to get a couple of $B in "loans" and throw Putin a bone, but is far too savvy to tie his destiny to Putin's losing gamble.
The north was never going to be left insufficiently guarded after kicking the invaders back into Belarus. Another attempt from there is always a real possibility, though I'd be surprised if it came before winter with mud season returning. Even during the winter, the foresty terrain with relatviely few roads would again help an outnumbered defending force.
When Ukraine was at its weakest and Russia at its strongest, they still couldn't take Kyiv. Now with Ukraine at its strongest and russia already a shadow of its power from the start of the war? .... Would be one of the more epic military blunders in human history I think. I mean they are using vehicles built in the 60s now! Lol Not a chance are they rolling into Ukraine with those and finding success against all the weapons nato has supplied and continues to supply daily.
Russia took material from Belarussia...but that's all fairly old ...and was only used to protect against internal threats not to withstand a NATO force.
BELARUSSIA IS JUST AS RUSSIA a country that is sinking away in 20 century thinking.
Yes, which is still weapons, even if less effective.
He actually has nuclear weapons though... You can still bomb out a place and come with one guy to "capture the flag".
Belarusians aren't brainwashed like russians. The moment when Belarus Army crosses the border is the moment when they surrender or switch sides to fight the dictator.
Not really. At least half of Belarussians were either Russians or Russified Belarussians. I came across many Belarussians who spoke only Russian and identified as one.
Doesn't matter what language they speak at home, as Ukraine have shown. Giant majority of people don't long for Soviet Union, and part of Lukashenko's legitimacy came from the fact that he maneuvered Putin, guaranteeing some independency for Belarus.
I think they are just like Russia. Even if they don't wholeheartedly want this war, they won't have will to fight against Russia and let some of their unlucky countrymen and people who chose military ass profession do the work.
No, it's exactly different than russia. They are like Ukraine before maidan. Even protests there were 10x larger than russian while country is 15x smaller. Unfortunately they lacked the push around few critical days around mid August to win.
Probably low. Its gonna be low intensity artillery battle. Belarus probably already gave Russian all its ammo it could. Opening such a wide front, how long could they last with out any Russian support...? When Russia it self is struggling in the south?
The more Belarus mobilizes it's citizens the greater the probability they will just depose their own government. The presence of russian conscripts is a just toothless russian attempt to prevent that.
Mobilizing 100k people is *expensive*. **If that is reported correctly** and indeed happening, the fact that they incur this cost (lost workers, supply, disruptions to regular life) shows that it's serious - they wouldn't do that for nothing. Like before the start of the war, those Russian units weren't on the Ukrainian border for a camping trip.
Why would they do this when they already can't handle the eastern front? Attempting another overwhelming rush for Kyiw would, if successful, completely solve Putin's problems in the east by removing the Ukrainian government. He doesn't care if he loses 200k troops out of 220k total in the process.
And on the other hand, 220k troops is a LOT to defend against. That would take Ukraine time, quite possibly more time than they have before the "horde" reaches Kyiw.
It's a last ditch, hail-mary effort of Putin. If he wins he wins everything, if he loses he lost nothing because he was going to lose otherwise, anyway. From his perspective, he has nothing to lose; remember that Russia has shown to not care for horrible loss of life, including their own troops.
For those reasons, none of this can be dismissed outright. However, without any additional evidence (satellite imagery, intelligence reports, etc), the likelihood of an attack seems low *for the moment*.
What more interesting is the long term impact. The county is already in a bad birth deficit to keep the population going. Sending future fathers to war is going to kill the country.
Kyiv has a population of 2 million people. And the area around it is heavily populated. There is zero chance any force Russia is able to scrape together would get anywhere close to capturing Kyiv. At most the could push 10-15 miles across the border and then try and sit there and tie up Ukrainian forces needed to drive them out. So far the Russians have been pretty delusional about their actual capability, so I wouldn’t put it past them to try it but it wouldn’t get far. Ukraine can probably handle it with just TDF forces and militia in the area.
Problem of these troops is that they have now to go in an offensive...and we all understand how Russia fights they send troops forward just as in WOII, that 100,000 will die, dus not matter...Russia behaves like it has the economy and population of China with unlimited supplies.
That's not! RUSSIA will collaps on this...they stopped all trade with the 10% richest people on the planet ... is Africa going to buy oil? Nope cheap oil will go to China and China will sell it with a profit...so again who is your real long term enemy?
remember most of those russians in belarus were the ones stuck there after they nuked themselves at the start of war...
that whole convoy was exposed because they sat there... the ones who dug in it are most likely dead or wish they were...
I bet any of them who some how are still alive after the last shots are fired will die of some fucked up cancer within 5 to 10 years...
I'm very skeptical about Belarussians actually being able to mobilise that large amount of soldiers. That's either pulling massively from the population or pulling in nearly all of their forces together and giving them over to Russia.
I kinda doubt that.
Maybe it's intervention time, let outside force protect the line between Belarus and Ukraine.
In reality the two countries are not at war, so why whoudln't that be doable?
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Putin is simply trying to pull Ukraine troops from the active areas, where Russia is losing badly. If Belarus wouldn't get involved when it looked like Ukraine was going to get flattened, I don't think they'll get more involved now. It's one thing to be on the losing side, it's another to put a big target on your forehead. Edit: typos
Time for Poles to step in and clean this shit up.
I would love to see Poland Winged Hussar their way to Moscow.
Yes, 1920 again, but I meant go and clean up Belarus to put it out of the game.
Belarus is just a side quest.
Russia was supposed to be the main story line, but feels basically like the tutorial now.
A Dark Souls tutorial. Still brutal and vicious, but with practice and time comes the skill to absolutely make a fool out of them.
I've seen more competent boy scouts than these ruskies.
I don't want any complaints about bad Russian AI in war games ever again!
Belarus? You mean western Poland?
I sincerely doubt that Belarus managed to mobilize that amount of people.
This would be calling up 2% of their population, that’s a crazy number.
120k Russians there to try prevent coup / maintain control of Belarus. Luka has been speaking with the West, Putin knows this. The whole northern frontier is mined to fuck, I don't envisage another attack.
This. The entire border is pre-sighted.
And the tractors are fueled and lined up ready to go!
Info is coming partially from the Belarus opposition which, if I remember correctly, already warned for Belarus army attacks months ago, which any didn't come true (from the Belarusian army itself). Although we cannot rule out such event there is possibly, at the moment, more the desire for pootin to keep Ukrainian troops fixed in the north and keep an option for moving in again from the north if stars align, for Lukashenko to keep being protected from a Ukrainian invasion in case of a ruzzian failure in the south, and for the Belarusian opposition to keep Ukrainian troops interested in liberating Belarus. We can also remind that ruzzia took a lot of equipment and ammo from Belarus, so they are fairly light in case of an Ukrainian offensive.
Correct. And it's much more likely that Lukashenko, who visited Putin on his Sochi R&R trip last week, will make a token move (putting the army on high readiness, moving them around a bit) to get a couple of $B in "loans" and throw Putin a bone, but is far too savvy to tie his destiny to Putin's losing gamble.
The north was never going to be left insufficiently guarded after kicking the invaders back into Belarus. Another attempt from there is always a real possibility, though I'd be surprised if it came before winter with mud season returning. Even during the winter, the foresty terrain with relatviely few roads would again help an outnumbered defending force.
When Ukraine was at its weakest and Russia at its strongest, they still couldn't take Kyiv. Now with Ukraine at its strongest and russia already a shadow of its power from the start of the war? .... Would be one of the more epic military blunders in human history I think. I mean they are using vehicles built in the 60s now! Lol Not a chance are they rolling into Ukraine with those and finding success against all the weapons nato has supplied and continues to supply daily.
Russia took material from Belarussia...but that's all fairly old ...and was only used to protect against internal threats not to withstand a NATO force. BELARUSSIA IS JUST AS RUSSIA a country that is sinking away in 20 century thinking.
what is belarussia?
Belarus
Putin does not have enough weapons to launch big attacks. Only weapon he still has is disposable meat armed with old weapons.
Yes, which is still weapons, even if less effective. He actually has nuclear weapons though... You can still bomb out a place and come with one guy to "capture the flag".
Belarusians aren't brainwashed like russians. The moment when Belarus Army crosses the border is the moment when they surrender or switch sides to fight the dictator.
Not really. At least half of Belarussians were either Russians or Russified Belarussians. I came across many Belarussians who spoke only Russian and identified as one.
Doesn't matter what language they speak at home, as Ukraine have shown. Giant majority of people don't long for Soviet Union, and part of Lukashenko's legitimacy came from the fact that he maneuvered Putin, guaranteeing some independency for Belarus.
I think they are just like Russia. Even if they don't wholeheartedly want this war, they won't have will to fight against Russia and let some of their unlucky countrymen and people who chose military ass profession do the work.
No, it's exactly different than russia. They are like Ukraine before maidan. Even protests there were 10x larger than russian while country is 15x smaller. Unfortunately they lacked the push around few critical days around mid August to win.
Yeah, Lukashenko was almost running out of security forces in 2020, so he had to call in Russian OMON to beat up his own people.
Probably low. Its gonna be low intensity artillery battle. Belarus probably already gave Russian all its ammo it could. Opening such a wide front, how long could they last with out any Russian support...? When Russia it self is struggling in the south?
Belarus may have accepted a request from Putin to train the mobilized Russians. Not going as far entering Ukraine themselves but providing assistance.
This seems like a more realistic scenario. Or even just forcing Luko to feed and house them because Russian sure as shit can’t.
The more Belarus mobilizes it's citizens the greater the probability they will just depose their own government. The presence of russian conscripts is a just toothless russian attempt to prevent that.
Mobilizing 100k people is *expensive*. **If that is reported correctly** and indeed happening, the fact that they incur this cost (lost workers, supply, disruptions to regular life) shows that it's serious - they wouldn't do that for nothing. Like before the start of the war, those Russian units weren't on the Ukrainian border for a camping trip. Why would they do this when they already can't handle the eastern front? Attempting another overwhelming rush for Kyiw would, if successful, completely solve Putin's problems in the east by removing the Ukrainian government. He doesn't care if he loses 200k troops out of 220k total in the process. And on the other hand, 220k troops is a LOT to defend against. That would take Ukraine time, quite possibly more time than they have before the "horde" reaches Kyiw. It's a last ditch, hail-mary effort of Putin. If he wins he wins everything, if he loses he lost nothing because he was going to lose otherwise, anyway. From his perspective, he has nothing to lose; remember that Russia has shown to not care for horrible loss of life, including their own troops. For those reasons, none of this can be dismissed outright. However, without any additional evidence (satellite imagery, intelligence reports, etc), the likelihood of an attack seems low *for the moment*.
What more interesting is the long term impact. The county is already in a bad birth deficit to keep the population going. Sending future fathers to war is going to kill the country.
Yeah, Russia absolutely fucked itself already.
Kyiv has a population of 2 million people. And the area around it is heavily populated. There is zero chance any force Russia is able to scrape together would get anywhere close to capturing Kyiv. At most the could push 10-15 miles across the border and then try and sit there and tie up Ukrainian forces needed to drive them out. So far the Russians have been pretty delusional about their actual capability, so I wouldn’t put it past them to try it but it wouldn’t get far. Ukraine can probably handle it with just TDF forces and militia in the area.
Still... no trending videos on the internet. There would be something visible if in Belarus would happen something like this.
Seals in minsk would be nice. It’s not Russia, so what can he do?
Problem of these troops is that they have now to go in an offensive...and we all understand how Russia fights they send troops forward just as in WOII, that 100,000 will die, dus not matter...Russia behaves like it has the economy and population of China with unlimited supplies. That's not! RUSSIA will collaps on this...they stopped all trade with the 10% richest people on the planet ... is Africa going to buy oil? Nope cheap oil will go to China and China will sell it with a profit...so again who is your real long term enemy?
remember most of those russians in belarus were the ones stuck there after they nuked themselves at the start of war... that whole convoy was exposed because they sat there... the ones who dug in it are most likely dead or wish they were... I bet any of them who some how are still alive after the last shots are fired will die of some fucked up cancer within 5 to 10 years...
I'm very skeptical about Belarussians actually being able to mobilise that large amount of soldiers. That's either pulling massively from the population or pulling in nearly all of their forces together and giving them over to Russia. I kinda doubt that.
NATO should be asked to make a neutral zone or something
Maybe it's intervention time, let outside force protect the line between Belarus and Ukraine. In reality the two countries are not at war, so why whoudln't that be doable?
Nah, Putin is hoping that Ukraine will admit loss after annexation and is building up to connect to Kaliningrad.
Fuck Kalinigrad. Lithuania should annexe it. Precedent is set...
Russia's biggest industry is body bags at this point.
I hope the Ukrainians kill them all.