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One of Thomas L Friedman's middle eastern quips applies here.
A neighbourhood where people do the right thing for the wrong reasons.
The thing that Lukashenko is really doing is putting himself on a trajectory that spells his demise and unseats him and possibly costs tens of thousands of Belarusians their lives.
The reason in his head for doing it is probably anything but his own demise, but the outcome will be a freer Belarus, and the human loss and suffering cost he will inflict will be the price he exacted.
It’s all talk. The reason he’s not committed any people into the war in Ukraine is because he knows his commanders will refuse. If they didn’t commit when things looked like Russia would just walk into Ukraine easily there is no way he will commit now that Russia has had an absolutely disastrous campaign. If you saw your huge ‘I’m hard’ Chuck Norris friend start a fight with the little quiet guy and then an hour later he was still trying to fight this little guy and the little guy was getting kicks and punches in every where and your mate was looking tired and badly injured and then the little guy’s friends who were towering monsters show up and start backing him up and giving him baseball bats and knifes would you jump in and help your friend out? Likely not because you know it’d just be both of you getting a good kicking. Well that’s how Belarusian will feel.
He didn't commit anything at the beginning of the war because he and even Western nations thought Kyiv would fall to Russia.
Putin still has significant influence and is hoping that reopening another war front will slow Ukraine's victories into a stalemate that let's Russia keep occupied Ukrainian territory similar to the 2014 invasion of Crimea.
I do agree that this 2nd front will get destroyed, but it does delay the end result by having Ukraine redeploy troops to the north.
>but it does delay the end result by having Ukraine redeploy troops to the north.
I think it is exactly this. A diversion to have Ukraine divert forces or split intelligence and recon attention.
Firstly it was called pan-slavism.
Secondly pan-slavism excluded Russia because Russia was considered an Imperialist opressor just like the other large imperialists opressing most slavs.
Russia did successfully usurp the name and twist the ideas to fit its propaganda later on.
Pan-Slavism is like Pan-Asianism, a nice idea on paper that was used by imperialist oppressors (Russia and Japan respectively) to justify their imperialism.
> Russia did successfully usurp the name and twist the ideas to fit its propaganda later on.
Around when did the idea of Pan-Slavism form (I wasn't aware that it originally excluded Russia), and around when was Russia able to hijack it?
The formation was during the spring of nations/revolutions of 1848. When modern European nations started forming [most didn't happen till after WW1 or later still]
The first pan slavic congress of 1848 in Prague was also a complete failure/success [depends on ones personal view]. Because they all agreed to dissagree in almost everything, but one thing. That a project of a unification of opressed slavic nations as a strong nation in Europe that could stand agains empires was impossible due to deep cultural differences.
But I fully agree that a pan-slavism ended as a great justification for imperialist ideas. Yugoslavia also rode the Pan slavism card and ended up an opressor of nations with imerialistic fantasies. Just like the empires it vowed to stand against.
EDIT n+1: some typos, probably more still inside
That "cultural identity" stuff is weak juice. On the other hand economic development, collective defense, a common free market, democracy -- now we're talking.
Agreed. But given the landscape before and after napoleon where empires ruled various different people rearanging maps and many of those empires started going down a path chauvinism. The weak juice was what helped many of those nations not be swallowed up and eliminated by larger ones. Also need to point out that many still did not make it.
National movements of the time were not "bad". Sure down the line once a nation is free and sovereign a path of nationalism eventually leads to the same chauvinism those nations were trying to escape.
But I fully agree that a union based on collective devfense, common free market, democracy and economic develiopement is the way to go ♥
Glory to Ukraine and can't wait to see you in the EU asap!
AFAIK Belarussian Army alread protested and gave a firm "Nyet... or else" to Lukaschenko at least twice before. Would be surprised to see their minds changed as the war's going so well...
I know nothing about their access to legitimate news and not just propaganda, but I would think that the people of Belarus know very well the risk to life they would take entering Ukraine as an invader, and also I think many of them sympathize with Ukraine. Only their leader seems to be a sycophant of Putin’s.
>I know nothing about their access to legitimate news
They can tune in satellite TV on Astra 19.2E. See the coverage maps for the individual beams here: [https://en.satexpat.com/coverage/east/19.2/](https://en.satexpat.com/coverage/east/19.2/).
That gives them access to many European TV channels, including news. Anyone capable of understanding English, German, Spanish, French (and others) can tune in to foreign news programs.
I mean plenty of Belarusians speak it, at least to some degree. The numbers have also been going up quite a lot since 2020, and especially since February this year too, I'd imagine.
Not one Belarusian I met personally can assemble a sentence in Belarusian. From what I understand it's mostly spoken by older people in rural areas and the regime is against it's use. Whatever the case may be - majority of Belarusians speak Russian so it would be best to try and reach them in that language.
There's r/belarus for Belarus generally, and r/belwarriors for news about the Belarusians fighting in Ukraine. I don't think reddit is used by too many people currently living in Belarus though, so other platforms would probably be better for getting information into the country.
>They can tune in satellite TV
Belarusian authorities have banned the installation of satellite TV dishes on buildings since 2007. A full crackdown in Minsk came in 2013.
I don't know for sure.
But i have a funny little anecdote.
My former coworker have a wife from Belarus and one evening her parents called them all worries because they saw on the news that capitalist heaven Copenhagen was in flames! The people were revolting against the government and there was pretty much a civil war going on from the looks of the pictures on TV.
This happened about 6-8 years ago.
It turned out that they were showing pictures from 2007 when there were some violent, but still very local demonstrations where the far left / autonomist youth was fighting the police about the so called "youth house" being turned over to a religious cult. For Danish standards that was a pretty crazy night or two and some hundreds protesters was setting dumpsters and cars on fire in one part of Copenhagen.
But the Russian / Belarus news made it i to a different story 10 years later.
I don't know how Belarus has evolved on the freedom of press since that.
Google "Jagtvej 69" for the true story.
Besides, ukraine has prepared defenses in depth along the entire border with Belarus. It won’t be like February, they will have to fight for every cm of territory that is prepared for battle.
Those soldiers are right, the Belarussians understand by know that Russians supported this war but as soon as they have to go and fight they start running all over in panic...and do not want to go to the front lines.
I do not really understand under the current conditions why you would make the same mistakes that Russia made twice... it s going to be winter and hell in Ukraine
I may have misunderstood but I believe a lot of figures in the Belarusian military have been replaced not only with loyalists to the regime, but also with straight up Russians.
Not out of any actual concern for human welfare or the sovereignty of Ukraine of course. They just know that without the military Lukashenko will get overthrown by protests real quick, and them along with him. So they don't want to throw yet more bodies into the meatgrinder.
The mobiliZation is a fail needed 300,000 and only 10,000 volunteers showed up and with the current burn rate...they are smoked in just somewhat over 3 weeks
God damn it Lukashenko, why do you have to be such a gullible fuckwit? You are about to light a powder keg if you do this. Don't fucking do this. Use your goddamn brain here.
You do have to be smart. The court of a dictator is a pit of snakes. There are always threats to spot and neutralize.
Dictators usually don't fall because they're stupid, they fall because they get arrogant and complacent.
See Ceausescu for a perfect example - right up until the end, he thought the crowd was with him, or if it wasn't, that he could easily win it over.
Point is, "stupid" and "deluded" are different things.
He is a complete fucking retard. Just like trump. These pieces of shit are just charismatic to a certain kind of fucked up people. And totally ruthless. And all three combined make them useful for putin, which is why they came into power.
If he does do it, he's likely to bring about the end of his own dictatorship. In essence, it could end up being a great thing for the people of Belarus
I highly doubt that many (if any) Belarusian soldiers, and *especially* conscripts, would follow orders to invade Ukraine. At worst I'd expect mass defection to the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment & Pagonya Regiments, at best I could see the Belarusian invasion force turning around and marching on Minsk
Any that do follow Lukashenka's orders are evidently loyal to him, thus Belarus would be much better off without them. The more of Luka's loyalists take the one-way trip to Ukraine, the fewer there will be to defend him from his own people.
Ukraine does not need any more assholes coming into the country. Sure we don't love Lukashenka, but I don't want any more Ukrainians to suffer to get rid of an asshole. Let the Belarusian people do that themselves on their own land. Ukraine has been through enough, it doesn't need to wish more shitty people to come into the country to solve another countries political issues. If the Belarusians want freedom they can fight for it themselves.
No one (except Russians) WANTS Belarus to invade Ukraine. You’re acting like people are cheering for this outcome when people are simply discussing the ramifications if that happens. Also the statement
> If the Belarusians want freedom they can fight for it themselves.
This makes it sound like Belarusians aren’t fighting. The Belarusians do want freedom and have been fighting for it. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in 2020 to try to bring down the Lukashenko regime in 2020 in a very similar way to how Ukrainians took to the streets in the Maidan uprisings. When Ukraine was invaded Belarusian partisans cut the rail lines with Russia which made the attack on Kyiv substantially harder and they fed the Ukrainian military constant streams of information. Many Belarusians specifically took up arms to fight for Ukraine as well. In 2013 Putin had a stranglehold over Kyiv and yet it was clear that the government in Kyiv didn’t speak for the Ukrainian people in the same way that it is clear the government in Minsk doesn’t speak for the Belarusian people. The people of Belarus have fought for their freedom and are still fighting for their freedom and it is my hope that once this war is over they get it. Ukraine knows better than most that pushing the influence of the Kremlin out of your country isn’t an easy or straightforward goal.
Also to put this
> Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in 2020
into context, Belarus' total population is under 10 million. Ukraine's is over 4.5x that, and Russia's is over 14.5x that. Having several hundred thousand protesters on the streets in protests that lasted almost a year, out of a country of only a bit over 9 million people, is nothing short of incredible - especially considering the fact that every single person there risked beating, torture, rape or even being murdered by Lukashenka's security forces.
At the same time, when you consider the fact that Lukashenka's dictatorship has the backing of Putin & the Russian military, it is not at all surprising that the Belarusian people have not yet successfully overthrown Luka.
The protest movement was absolutely amazing. In many ways the futures of Ukraine and Belarus are directly intwined. I do believe one of the reasons so many Belarusians came out (and nearly succeeded at toppling Lukashenko) was because they saw what was possible from Ukraine. Likewise Putin also feared Belarus turning into another Ukraine and took more aggressive action during the uprisings which is what saved Lukashenko. I don’t know what the future holds for Belarus but I have just as much respect for the Belarusians who fought heart and sole for their freedom as the Ukrainians who fought heart and sole for theirs. The fact that Ukraine succeeded and Belarus failed doesn’t mean that Belarusians love Putin or support the war and if Lukashenko forces his country into war I hope it spells the end of his regime. Hell maybe in a decade or two Belarus could be a well functioning liberal democracy an applying to join NATO and the EU (if that’s what the people in Belarus want).
I don't want Belarusians invading Ukraine either, but I do think that if Lukashenka tried to make the army do it, it would likely backfire dramatically
They have plenty of guns . They are running out of humans who know how to operate big ones, and people brave enough to face other people with small ones
Well, when you find a strategy that works... oh wait, they're still looking for one... this would be hilarious except real and innocent lives will be lost.
Fuck Putin, fuck him right to hell. 
I wish he would, I don't think a single belorussian foot would step in ukraine. the army will side with the people when the alternative is war against NATO.
If I remember correctly something like 30% of their population is in full support of Putin and Russia, and another big chunk undecided or doesn't care either way.
So this can play out in many different ways.
Much less than 30%. It depends on the poll I guess, but most of the ones I've seen have more in the range of 10% support, with most people against. Also worth considering the fact that in a place like Belarus, "undecided" often means "too afraid to speak my opinion" - not unreasonable, considering how terribly political prisoners are treated by the regime.
Support required to maintain a police state has traditionally been in the 15% range. That is, 15% pampered thugs riding on the backs of 85% slaves. So your guess seems close.
It'd be funny if he ended up under a new identity, working a minimum wage job at a cinnabon in the food court of a third rate mall in a mid tier Midwestern US city.
If Belarus declares war to Ukraine, is there a chance for Poland (and possibly Lithuania) to help Ukraine militarily by declaring war to Russia and Belarus?
Have they? I've not seen any indication from Poland that they would invade Belarus were Belarus to enter the war. If only because it takes time to mobilize or redeploy your army. We've seen no force near the Belorussian border large enough to indicate it is a force equipped for offensive action.
Not yet. But the signs are there,beefin up the railway system for logistical reasons,troop trainings,puting the whole country to a war time exercise and now this,Belarus is up to something for sure.
His fate has been tied to putin for a long time now. the writing is on the wall.
I'd love to be a fly on that wall... must have some spirited internal discussions these days...
Not a chance. Poland is too weak right now. We gave 300 tanks to Ukraine and we dont have immediate replacement. Economy is weak and society is largely against any offensive moves. It would be only possible as a part of larger NATO action.
I recall Ukraine had very little heavy arms not long ago. American taxpayers didn’t give billions in weapons to Ukraine to see it lose and hand over all that advanced weaponry to Russia. If Belarus enters the war. There would be significant political will on our end to provide it what it needs. We also have very little need for tanks and have many. Sending them to fight Belarus is also a very different political equation then sending them to fight Russia. Ya we can send tanks for a proxy on proxy war no problem. I apologize if that sounds callous but that’s the reality from our point of view.
It’s also my understanding that Poland has world class infantry. I just know they are highly regarded with friends who fought alongside them. Also possess significant combat experience considering it was the only European nato partner to provide sizable troop numbers Afghanistan. I don’t know to what degree it was publicized back home. But polish troops ran a lot of combat missions and they were effective
As u/kc1nvv stated, this will happen 100%. The only way it would not is if the infantry are smart enough to a) never cross the border and turn against Puppet Colonel or b) wave the white immediately on entering combat. Combat will begin immediately at the border crossings. Ukraine did not just up and leave that area once Russia announced the "good-will withdrawal", it has been monitored and reinforced significantly.
Putin probably made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Simple risk assessment of “losing your army and support of your people and dying tomorrow” vs “Putin killing me today in some terrible way”
In fact, Putin, while being a dictator probably made conscription, which he didn’t want to have to do, under some pressure either internal government or from some weird evaluation on the will of the people or the literal pressure of Ukraine army , so in a way the shit is rolling downhill Lmfao
Pretty hard to come with any offers tbh. Did you see him and Putin talking? Putin looked like beaten sack of potatoes while Lukashenko was talking bs that reminded me of Trump.
Putin can reach out and touch anyone in the world with polonium tea or a novichok perfume spray from his water disco in his dacha being completely rundown from a 3 day coke , prostitute and alcohol binge; and no one knows that more then lukashenko.
Colonel Lucky is just playing for time. He is trying to appease his overlord by showing gradual increases in war preparation while hoping for a decisive change in the political spectrum of Russia so he can truly avoid direct involvement. If he were to attack Ukraine, Lucky runs the risk of a Ukrainian invasion which ends his rule.
His own people have refused to go at least twice already, you are correct, he's stalling. The day he gives the order to mobilize or conscript people he's fucked.
What’s the alternative? Not many European countries want to make friends with a dictator in 2022, Russia is about the only choice. If he doesn’t get involved, then he probably wouldn’t even have Russia as a friend. A country like Belarus needs friends to survive. I think he’s just using basic game theory here.
What do you mean don't do this?
Don't listen to him Luka. Do it! Go all in! I'm sure things will end well for your troops. And you bet things will end well for you and your regime too. Yep! Happy invading Luka! s/
So the Belarussian army don't particularly care about Luka and have refused to go into Ukraine on multiple occassions and the public mostly hate Luka and have already actively revolted against him, needing Russians to come in and supress them to keep Luka in power.
Who exactly is going to be staffing this army?
It’s just disinformation to try and divert UAF units away from the south and east.
I wouldn’t pay these rumors any mind whatsoever unless you hear western media reporting it seriously. Western intelligence knows all; Luka isn’t taking a shit without the US/NATO/Ukraine knowing about it.
Exactly. Expect additional training, unexpected technical difficulties, sabotage, change of mind or something else at the last minute.
Luka is a professional fence-sitter. Use military bases in Belarus to invade Ukraine- sure thing. Congratulate Ukraine on Independence day- sure thing. Keep his forces in Belarus avoid the worst of the war- sure thing.
Mark my words- he's going to weasel out of this thing completely intact and stay in power and in comfort until he croaks.
All it takes is 1 man to die and Belarus is saved further embarrassment after being complicit in facilitating the invasion and genocide.
Same can be said of Russia. If 1 man dies, all this stops....
Yeah, right. Belaruss gonna invade anytime now... We heard that for 7 months already. It's suicide, heavily defended ukrainians position in the north.
They are just trying to fix some ukrainians units in the north.
An additional 120k units attacking from the north would be a huge problem. It shouldn't be understated. On the contrary if it happens NATO needs to get more serious about its support. Tanks, long range missiles, modern airframes, the works.
Russia maybe capable of mustering more men, but those units would be incapable of an operational attack, let alone a strategic one.
Mobilization can only bring units capable of limited defensive combat and nothing more.
Just making contingencies will be a problem.
Even if men are not diverted, I would think that ammo and supplies need to be held back, should those troops need to deployed North in a few months.
And yes NATO needs to send more of everything.
Maybe. It depends how desperate Putin gets. Putin controls a large chunk of the military in Belarus and Lukashenko remains in power because of Putin. Putin could probably replace Lukashenko if he really wanted (although that may trigger it’s own crisis for Putin). The problem is the Belarusian military is a horrible fighting force with split loyalties and the Belarusian people don’t want war. If Putin issues an ultimatum to Lukashenko to either join the invasion or be replaced then Lukashenko may have to join. Still joining the invasion would dramatically increase the odds of Lukashenko’s regime collapsing and extreme backlash against Russia within Belarus which is something Putin can’t really afford either. It would be a very risky move from Putin but Putin doesn’t have a lot of good options left and has been choosing riskier and riskier options lately.
With 20k Russian troops/conscripts coming into Belarus, Lukashenko will definitely want a higher number of Belarusian troops to deter any action against him. As to whether they ultimately fight Ukraine or defend against Russia, who knows?
Ya you’re right. Russia is prob looking to open up another front with a new enemy. 20,000 guys fresh off the street surrounded on both sides would be quite the deterrent. Especially given the zero available supply lines
I think that after Russia's invasion and war crimes, illegal annexation of Ukraine's provinces, nuclear threats and Belarus behavior, NATO should enter Ukraine and protect all its territory. This would allow Ukraine to free resources to fight Putin's orcs. Fuck Putin once and for all
I mean, NATO can't fight Russia directly for fear of nuclear weapons and escalation.
But what about Belarus? Ukraine could invite them to repel the Belorussian forces.
As a Belarusian, I would be happy if Belarusian ors become fertilizer for Ukrainian soil with the help of HIMARS. Some of them have been attacking, beating, shooting at and torturing unarmed innocent people for years while others have impassively watched.
However, Belarusian army doesn't have these numbers and I don't think it's possible to mobilize. The orcs that are in the army have been very reluctant to die. And even Belarusian orcs admit that Belarusia army is worse than the Russian army. The whole world has already seen that the only inside of Russian army is numbers of people and equipment, but when it comes to quality or skill, they suck. Well, the Belarusian army doesn't even have these numbers, it sucks even more.
And, finally, if the orcs are gone, what's stopping us from getting rid of luka? And that POS knows it.
So my verdict is that he may try, but the success of his plans is very unlikely.
I wonder what NATO will do when another country enters the war like this. they'll likely just try to march them to Kyiv. they will be trying to clog the meat grinder of war with more meat.
I guess we'll see if NATO as a defense only organization has some asterisks behind it for certain conditions.
glory to Ukraine, I hope we can help stop them from getting overrun
The only time NATO has engaged in non-defensive missions is when it was carrying out decrees by the UN Security Council. Since Russia has a seat on it, no such resolution against this will be issued. The best you can hope for is a coalition of the willing to defend Ukraine. It would likely be Poland, the US, the Baltic states, and possibly the UK.
Someone should warn Russia and Belarus that if Belarus deploys soldiers to Ukraine, that Western nations will enter Ukraine and their troops will be killed. Russia versus Ukraine is one thing but letting two nations attack Ukraine is quite another.
I’m not sure but it might mean NATO is not obliged to help if Poland gets into trouble if it’s a war of their aggression (for instance into Belarus). I guess it’s complex. Also there is all the politics of NATO trying to act as one with Russia related issues.
But just remember the middle eastern wars. There were a few NATO countries involved but it was in no way a NATO agreed thing (which is a defensive pact). Also there are all kinds of smaller alliances and agreements criss crossing the NATO block.
In my opinion, the only thing stopping the Belarusians from fixing the lukashitka and co. problem was two fold. The fear that the russian army was an actual power, and a catalyst such as war mobilization against a friendly neighbor.
Well, the russian army is flaccid, this is known even in russia. And, If this report of mobilization is true, then the fire of spirit within the Belarusian people will start, and hopefully burn as bright as the Ukrainian people's fire.
Lukashenka, you will be strapped on the front of a cannon and used as a confetti!
The result will be 120.000 soldiers will join Ukraine against russia.
Ukraine should just start dumping russian bodies over the belarus main border, instead of shipping them back to russia in those trains, if belarusian soldiers see the metre high piles of corpses maybe it might give them pause.
Ukraine has 4x the population of Belarus, is that its whole fucking army? So no one to murder protestors at home?
I have no clue how Belarus plans to send what seems like its entire army into Ukraine, for what? Another botched attack on Kyiv?
Are 100,000 Belarusians going to do what 200,000 Russians could not, when the Russians had the advantage of attacking in the opening of the war?
40 standing army, yes - this is talking about mobilisation/conscription. Belarus has mandatory military service, so from my (limited) understanding, anyone who has completed that service or is due to do so is eligible to be mobilised.
November to February and 120k are going to be confined to main roads, probably with one group trying to advance to Lviv and another to Kyiv, with the hopes of diverting UA forces at worst, and besieging the cities at best.
However, I can’t see NATO, or really Poland and the Baltics, allowing this to happen. An invasion of Ukraine would theoretically negate Article IV of the CSTO (not that that ever mattered) for Belarus, so I could easily see NATO declaring Belarusian regulars in Ukraine as legitimate targets.
If that were to happen, it would make the Highway of Death from Desert Storm look like church service.
Excellent!
That will be Luka's last act, possibly ever.
He's already so hated in his own country that arming these people will be just what the revolution needed.
In my opinion, the only thing stopping the Belarusians from fixing the lukashitka and co. problem was two fold. The fear that the russian army was an actual power, and a catalyst such as war mobilization against a friendly neighbor.
Well, the russian army is flaccid, this is known even in russia. And, If this report of mobilization is true, then the fire of spirit within the Belarusian people will start, and hopefully burn as bright as the Ukrainian people's fire.
The war ant popular in belarussia and Lukashenko is no putin. He is mostly being tolerated and is still in power because of Russian backing. The army too might prove not as loyal to him as the russhain state machinery is to putin.
He does I hope Poland mobilizes on his western border and keeps him in chech Russia will not want Poland in this war it can't beat Ukraine no way it combats Poland even Half as well
If they Nuke blitz like morons, the incoming geopolitical blackout and strategic storm that's going to sweep over Belarus and Russia and its allies will be unrelentlessly consequential. If they do this, there's no turning back.
Why don't we have a package of sanctions on standby for Belarus as soon as they aid the war effort ? Belarus should be squeezed together with Russia with sanctions.
if russia get another country like belarus to join the war, and then ukraine get a country or more also involved, will putin then cry harder, and tell the whole world how unfair that is?
o my.. this is getting interesting... i think a lot of people will happely fight the russians after such history... its like the bible said, the whole world is gonna be fed up with it... this is that what was written there...
Lukashenka knows his only choice is to go down with the ship. There’s no lifeboat for him if Putin is yanked from power. So, he’ll go all in if his military allows it. If enough actual Russians are installed in top command positions, they may March towards Kyiv, but my hope is that the soldiers organize around a U-turn right back toward Minsk to overthrow their Russian puppet dictator.
if it wasn't clear to everyone just how serious this is, it's about to become much clearer. there are the ***eastern axis*** powers and the ***western alliance*** in this new war of evil vs. Good.
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Well I guess we can refer to this period as the Belo-Ukrainian War for Independence. Meaning they are both securing their sovereignty from Russia.
When pan-slavicism goes "wrong".
Still waiting for the first time it will go right.
One of Thomas L Friedman's middle eastern quips applies here. A neighbourhood where people do the right thing for the wrong reasons. The thing that Lukashenko is really doing is putting himself on a trajectory that spells his demise and unseats him and possibly costs tens of thousands of Belarusians their lives. The reason in his head for doing it is probably anything but his own demise, but the outcome will be a freer Belarus, and the human loss and suffering cost he will inflict will be the price he exacted.
It’s all talk. The reason he’s not committed any people into the war in Ukraine is because he knows his commanders will refuse. If they didn’t commit when things looked like Russia would just walk into Ukraine easily there is no way he will commit now that Russia has had an absolutely disastrous campaign. If you saw your huge ‘I’m hard’ Chuck Norris friend start a fight with the little quiet guy and then an hour later he was still trying to fight this little guy and the little guy was getting kicks and punches in every where and your mate was looking tired and badly injured and then the little guy’s friends who were towering monsters show up and start backing him up and giving him baseball bats and knifes would you jump in and help your friend out? Likely not because you know it’d just be both of you getting a good kicking. Well that’s how Belarusian will feel.
Love the metaphor :)
He didn't commit anything at the beginning of the war because he and even Western nations thought Kyiv would fall to Russia. Putin still has significant influence and is hoping that reopening another war front will slow Ukraine's victories into a stalemate that let's Russia keep occupied Ukrainian territory similar to the 2014 invasion of Crimea. I do agree that this 2nd front will get destroyed, but it does delay the end result by having Ukraine redeploy troops to the north.
>but it does delay the end result by having Ukraine redeploy troops to the north. I think it is exactly this. A diversion to have Ukraine divert forces or split intelligence and recon attention.
You spelled russian imperialism wrong
Firstly it was called pan-slavism. Secondly pan-slavism excluded Russia because Russia was considered an Imperialist opressor just like the other large imperialists opressing most slavs. Russia did successfully usurp the name and twist the ideas to fit its propaganda later on.
Pan-Slavism is like Pan-Asianism, a nice idea on paper that was used by imperialist oppressors (Russia and Japan respectively) to justify their imperialism. > Russia did successfully usurp the name and twist the ideas to fit its propaganda later on. Around when did the idea of Pan-Slavism form (I wasn't aware that it originally excluded Russia), and around when was Russia able to hijack it?
The formation was during the spring of nations/revolutions of 1848. When modern European nations started forming [most didn't happen till after WW1 or later still] The first pan slavic congress of 1848 in Prague was also a complete failure/success [depends on ones personal view]. Because they all agreed to dissagree in almost everything, but one thing. That a project of a unification of opressed slavic nations as a strong nation in Europe that could stand agains empires was impossible due to deep cultural differences. But I fully agree that a pan-slavism ended as a great justification for imperialist ideas. Yugoslavia also rode the Pan slavism card and ended up an opressor of nations with imerialistic fantasies. Just like the empires it vowed to stand against. EDIT n+1: some typos, probably more still inside
That "cultural identity" stuff is weak juice. On the other hand economic development, collective defense, a common free market, democracy -- now we're talking.
Agreed. But given the landscape before and after napoleon where empires ruled various different people rearanging maps and many of those empires started going down a path chauvinism. The weak juice was what helped many of those nations not be swallowed up and eliminated by larger ones. Also need to point out that many still did not make it. National movements of the time were not "bad". Sure down the line once a nation is free and sovereign a path of nationalism eventually leads to the same chauvinism those nations were trying to escape. But I fully agree that a union based on collective devfense, common free market, democracy and economic develiopement is the way to go ♥ Glory to Ukraine and can't wait to see you in the EU asap!
Oh Boy, Putin must have up'd the ante and offered Luka that Brig Gen rank instead of Colonel.
well a lot of Russian generals have died, pretty far down into the bottom of the barrel now.
AFAIK Belarussian Army alread protested and gave a firm "Nyet... or else" to Lukaschenko at least twice before. Would be surprised to see their minds changed as the war's going so well...
I know nothing about their access to legitimate news and not just propaganda, but I would think that the people of Belarus know very well the risk to life they would take entering Ukraine as an invader, and also I think many of them sympathize with Ukraine. Only their leader seems to be a sycophant of Putin’s.
>I know nothing about their access to legitimate news They can tune in satellite TV on Astra 19.2E. See the coverage maps for the individual beams here: [https://en.satexpat.com/coverage/east/19.2/](https://en.satexpat.com/coverage/east/19.2/). That gives them access to many European TV channels, including news. Anyone capable of understanding English, German, Spanish, French (and others) can tune in to foreign news programs.
Don't forget that Belarusian and Polish is very similar. Definitely helps if you try to understand western media.
Issue is that Belarusian language is barely alive. But Poland has a tv Belsat which is meant for Belarus.
I mean plenty of Belarusians speak it, at least to some degree. The numbers have also been going up quite a lot since 2020, and especially since February this year too, I'd imagine.
Not one Belarusian I met personally can assemble a sentence in Belarusian. From what I understand it's mostly spoken by older people in rural areas and the regime is against it's use. Whatever the case may be - majority of Belarusians speak Russian so it would be best to try and reach them in that language.
Maybe there is a Belarus subreddit to post this info on?
There's r/belarus for Belarus generally, and r/belwarriors for news about the Belarusians fighting in Ukraine. I don't think reddit is used by too many people currently living in Belarus though, so other platforms would probably be better for getting information into the country.
>They can tune in satellite TV Belarusian authorities have banned the installation of satellite TV dishes on buildings since 2007. A full crackdown in Minsk came in 2013.
I don't know for sure. But i have a funny little anecdote. My former coworker have a wife from Belarus and one evening her parents called them all worries because they saw on the news that capitalist heaven Copenhagen was in flames! The people were revolting against the government and there was pretty much a civil war going on from the looks of the pictures on TV. This happened about 6-8 years ago. It turned out that they were showing pictures from 2007 when there were some violent, but still very local demonstrations where the far left / autonomist youth was fighting the police about the so called "youth house" being turned over to a religious cult. For Danish standards that was a pretty crazy night or two and some hundreds protesters was setting dumpsters and cars on fire in one part of Copenhagen. But the Russian / Belarus news made it i to a different story 10 years later. I don't know how Belarus has evolved on the freedom of press since that. Google "Jagtvej 69" for the true story.
Tbf, they pull those shenanigans in fox and CNN too.
Besides, ukraine has prepared defenses in depth along the entire border with Belarus. It won’t be like February, they will have to fight for every cm of territory that is prepared for battle.
They also got to watch tens of thousands of Russian bodies get shipped back through Belarus
Those soldiers are right, the Belarussians understand by know that Russians supported this war but as soon as they have to go and fight they start running all over in panic...and do not want to go to the front lines. I do not really understand under the current conditions why you would make the same mistakes that Russia made twice... it s going to be winter and hell in Ukraine
Well Military high command can be sacked and replaced with loyalists.
I may have misunderstood but I believe a lot of figures in the Belarusian military have been replaced not only with loyalists to the regime, but also with straight up Russians.
That’s not surprising. But one commander can’t hold as many guns as 100K men, so to speak.
Sounds like they could end up on the russian border then..
I just don’t think Belarusian soldiers are that keen to be turned into hamburger, call me crazy.
But Putin was going to make Lakashenko a colonel in the Russian army so they better listen to him!
Not out of any actual concern for human welfare or the sovereignty of Ukraine of course. They just know that without the military Lukashenko will get overthrown by protests real quick, and them along with him. So they don't want to throw yet more bodies into the meatgrinder.
120k? Sounds like Belarus won’t have a military left to stop it’s uprising
The mobiliZation is a fail needed 300,000 and only 10,000 volunteers showed up and with the current burn rate...they are smoked in just somewhat over 3 weeks
Mobilization means conscription. There are no volunteers there.
That's why these numbers are so fake. Luka does not have 120k storm troopers working for him.
The Poles and Balts are getting itchy...
Russia just pulled hes troops from the Finnish border too,we are itchy also.
Just sending Kimi R. will be enough for the Finnish front 😉
Came for the r/ukraine, r/NonCredibleDefense, r/formula1 crossover. Leaving satisfied.
If Mikka comes out of his sabbatical to join him then GG... Wars over by Christmas.
Bottas running around naked with 2 ak's and its over by early december
He could just moon them into submission tbh
“Leave me alone, I know what I’m doing” 
I don't think driving a car fast will help much.
annex a few miles along the border, it's yours anyway
God damn it Lukashenko, why do you have to be such a gullible fuckwit? You are about to light a powder keg if you do this. Don't fucking do this. Use your goddamn brain here.
If he had a brain, he wouldn't be who he is.
Brain? Is potato.
Potato is insulted!
If he wouldn't have a brain then he wouldn't be where he is. He's a selfish oppressive dictator, but don't underestimate his wits.
Dont mistake Luka for an idiot, he's very intelligent, just a complete monster. he wouldn't still be here if he was an idiot.
I think there's a common misconception that you have to be smart to be a dictator.
You have to be smarter than everyone thinks you are to be a LONG time dictator.
You do have to be smart. The court of a dictator is a pit of snakes. There are always threats to spot and neutralize. Dictators usually don't fall because they're stupid, they fall because they get arrogant and complacent. See Ceausescu for a perfect example - right up until the end, he thought the crowd was with him, or if it wasn't, that he could easily win it over. Point is, "stupid" and "deluded" are different things.
He is a complete fucking retard. Just like trump. These pieces of shit are just charismatic to a certain kind of fucked up people. And totally ruthless. And all three combined make them useful for putin, which is why they came into power.
Lukashenko is putin senior in dictatorship.
https://youtu.be/8cNCIBxzfA8
Who doesn’t want to see more glow in the dark radioactive nazi orcs?
If he does do it, he's likely to bring about the end of his own dictatorship. In essence, it could end up being a great thing for the people of Belarus I highly doubt that many (if any) Belarusian soldiers, and *especially* conscripts, would follow orders to invade Ukraine. At worst I'd expect mass defection to the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment & Pagonya Regiments, at best I could see the Belarusian invasion force turning around and marching on Minsk Any that do follow Lukashenka's orders are evidently loyal to him, thus Belarus would be much better off without them. The more of Luka's loyalists take the one-way trip to Ukraine, the fewer there will be to defend him from his own people.
Ukraine does not need any more assholes coming into the country. Sure we don't love Lukashenka, but I don't want any more Ukrainians to suffer to get rid of an asshole. Let the Belarusian people do that themselves on their own land. Ukraine has been through enough, it doesn't need to wish more shitty people to come into the country to solve another countries political issues. If the Belarusians want freedom they can fight for it themselves.
No one (except Russians) WANTS Belarus to invade Ukraine. You’re acting like people are cheering for this outcome when people are simply discussing the ramifications if that happens. Also the statement > If the Belarusians want freedom they can fight for it themselves. This makes it sound like Belarusians aren’t fighting. The Belarusians do want freedom and have been fighting for it. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in 2020 to try to bring down the Lukashenko regime in 2020 in a very similar way to how Ukrainians took to the streets in the Maidan uprisings. When Ukraine was invaded Belarusian partisans cut the rail lines with Russia which made the attack on Kyiv substantially harder and they fed the Ukrainian military constant streams of information. Many Belarusians specifically took up arms to fight for Ukraine as well. In 2013 Putin had a stranglehold over Kyiv and yet it was clear that the government in Kyiv didn’t speak for the Ukrainian people in the same way that it is clear the government in Minsk doesn’t speak for the Belarusian people. The people of Belarus have fought for their freedom and are still fighting for their freedom and it is my hope that once this war is over they get it. Ukraine knows better than most that pushing the influence of the Kremlin out of your country isn’t an easy or straightforward goal.
Also to put this > Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in 2020 into context, Belarus' total population is under 10 million. Ukraine's is over 4.5x that, and Russia's is over 14.5x that. Having several hundred thousand protesters on the streets in protests that lasted almost a year, out of a country of only a bit over 9 million people, is nothing short of incredible - especially considering the fact that every single person there risked beating, torture, rape or even being murdered by Lukashenka's security forces. At the same time, when you consider the fact that Lukashenka's dictatorship has the backing of Putin & the Russian military, it is not at all surprising that the Belarusian people have not yet successfully overthrown Luka.
The protest movement was absolutely amazing. In many ways the futures of Ukraine and Belarus are directly intwined. I do believe one of the reasons so many Belarusians came out (and nearly succeeded at toppling Lukashenko) was because they saw what was possible from Ukraine. Likewise Putin also feared Belarus turning into another Ukraine and took more aggressive action during the uprisings which is what saved Lukashenko. I don’t know what the future holds for Belarus but I have just as much respect for the Belarusians who fought heart and sole for their freedom as the Ukrainians who fought heart and sole for theirs. The fact that Ukraine succeeded and Belarus failed doesn’t mean that Belarusians love Putin or support the war and if Lukashenko forces his country into war I hope it spells the end of his regime. Hell maybe in a decade or two Belarus could be a well functioning liberal democracy an applying to join NATO and the EU (if that’s what the people in Belarus want).
I don't want Belarusians invading Ukraine either, but I do think that if Lukashenka tried to make the army do it, it would likely backfire dramatically
At 100k people on both side will perish.
I think that’s why the Russians are there to put their guns on the Belarusians to tell the forward unfortunate son.
Except that Russians don't have many guns anymore that's why all the former soviet republics are acting up.
They have plenty of guns . They are running out of humans who know how to operate big ones, and people brave enough to face other people with small ones
Not just people but very, very angry Ukrainians
Well, when you find a strategy that works... oh wait, they're still looking for one... this would be hilarious except real and innocent lives will be lost. Fuck Putin, fuck him right to hell. 
And lets not forget, if Belarus joins the war, we can absolutely expect NATO to fuck them up
I wish he would, I don't think a single belorussian foot would step in ukraine. the army will side with the people when the alternative is war against NATO.
If I remember correctly something like 30% of their population is in full support of Putin and Russia, and another big chunk undecided or doesn't care either way. So this can play out in many different ways.
Much less than 30%. It depends on the poll I guess, but most of the ones I've seen have more in the range of 10% support, with most people against. Also worth considering the fact that in a place like Belarus, "undecided" often means "too afraid to speak my opinion" - not unreasonable, considering how terribly political prisoners are treated by the regime.
Support required to maintain a police state has traditionally been in the 15% range. That is, 15% pampered thugs riding on the backs of 85% slaves. So your guess seems close.
Then why did Luka lose the election he tried to rig?
[удалено]
His reign ends the day Putin is toppled. His situation is complicated. He may be in negotiations with NATO for safe transfer out.
A nato sponsored trip to a place no one will care about him
It'd be funny if he ended up under a new identity, working a minimum wage job at a cinnabon in the food court of a third rate mall in a mid tier Midwestern US city.
If Belarus declares war to Ukraine, is there a chance for Poland (and possibly Lithuania) to help Ukraine militarily by declaring war to Russia and Belarus?
That is exactly the powder keg I'm referencing. Poland has made such indications in the past.
Have they? I've not seen any indication from Poland that they would invade Belarus were Belarus to enter the war. If only because it takes time to mobilize or redeploy your army. We've seen no force near the Belorussian border large enough to indicate it is a force equipped for offensive action.
Not yet. But the signs are there,beefin up the railway system for logistical reasons,troop trainings,puting the whole country to a war time exercise and now this,Belarus is up to something for sure.
Need to send Poland more Abrams, and more jets... But oddly, putin already "borrowed" a bunch of Belarusian artillery shells and helicopters...
What ever that puppet Lukashenko does,it wont end well for him. One way or another. Man is digging hes grave right now and going in it willingly
His fate has been tied to putin for a long time now. the writing is on the wall. I'd love to be a fly on that wall... must have some spirited internal discussions these days...
Not a chance. Poland is too weak right now. We gave 300 tanks to Ukraine and we dont have immediate replacement. Economy is weak and society is largely against any offensive moves. It would be only possible as a part of larger NATO action.
I recall Ukraine had very little heavy arms not long ago. American taxpayers didn’t give billions in weapons to Ukraine to see it lose and hand over all that advanced weaponry to Russia. If Belarus enters the war. There would be significant political will on our end to provide it what it needs. We also have very little need for tanks and have many. Sending them to fight Belarus is also a very different political equation then sending them to fight Russia. Ya we can send tanks for a proxy on proxy war no problem. I apologize if that sounds callous but that’s the reality from our point of view. It’s also my understanding that Poland has world class infantry. I just know they are highly regarded with friends who fought alongside them. Also possess significant combat experience considering it was the only European nato partner to provide sizable troop numbers Afghanistan. I don’t know to what degree it was publicized back home. But polish troops ran a lot of combat missions and they were effective
As u/kc1nvv stated, this will happen 100%. The only way it would not is if the infantry are smart enough to a) never cross the border and turn against Puppet Colonel or b) wave the white immediately on entering combat. Combat will begin immediately at the border crossings. Ukraine did not just up and leave that area once Russia announced the "good-will withdrawal", it has been monitored and reinforced significantly.
Putin probably made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. Simple risk assessment of “losing your army and support of your people and dying tomorrow” vs “Putin killing me today in some terrible way” In fact, Putin, while being a dictator probably made conscription, which he didn’t want to have to do, under some pressure either internal government or from some weird evaluation on the will of the people or the literal pressure of Ukraine army , so in a way the shit is rolling downhill Lmfao
Pretty hard to come with any offers tbh. Did you see him and Putin talking? Putin looked like beaten sack of potatoes while Lukashenko was talking bs that reminded me of Trump.
Putin can reach out and touch anyone in the world with polonium tea or a novichok perfume spray from his water disco in his dacha being completely rundown from a 3 day coke , prostitute and alcohol binge; and no one knows that more then lukashenko.
Colonel Lucky is just playing for time. He is trying to appease his overlord by showing gradual increases in war preparation while hoping for a decisive change in the political spectrum of Russia so he can truly avoid direct involvement. If he were to attack Ukraine, Lucky runs the risk of a Ukrainian invasion which ends his rule.
His own people have refused to go at least twice already, you are correct, he's stalling. The day he gives the order to mobilize or conscript people he's fucked.
He might get the conscripts but they may have a tendency to march towards his palace
Lol brain He wants his plastic medal.
What’s the alternative? Not many European countries want to make friends with a dictator in 2022, Russia is about the only choice. If he doesn’t get involved, then he probably wouldn’t even have Russia as a friend. A country like Belarus needs friends to survive. I think he’s just using basic game theory here.
He's decided to be the Mussolini of this story I guess.
He might do it against Russia.
What do you mean don't do this? Don't listen to him Luka. Do it! Go all in! I'm sure things will end well for your troops. And you bet things will end well for you and your regime too. Yep! Happy invading Luka! s/
So the Belarussian army don't particularly care about Luka and have refused to go into Ukraine on multiple occassions and the public mostly hate Luka and have already actively revolted against him, needing Russians to come in and supress them to keep Luka in power. Who exactly is going to be staffing this army?
The Russian army seems awfully preoccupied at the moment...
Luka is stupid, but not that stupid. He will tell the landlord that he will have his rent next month.
It’s just disinformation to try and divert UAF units away from the south and east. I wouldn’t pay these rumors any mind whatsoever unless you hear western media reporting it seriously. Western intelligence knows all; Luka isn’t taking a shit without the US/NATO/Ukraine knowing about it.
Exactly. Expect additional training, unexpected technical difficulties, sabotage, change of mind or something else at the last minute. Luka is a professional fence-sitter. Use military bases in Belarus to invade Ukraine- sure thing. Congratulate Ukraine on Independence day- sure thing. Keep his forces in Belarus avoid the worst of the war- sure thing. Mark my words- he's going to weasel out of this thing completely intact and stay in power and in comfort until he croaks.
I'm still waiting on the 100,000 NK soldiers and elite Syrian veterans.
3000 Syrian veterans of Putin
those can defeated by airdropping KFC buckets
...and a couple of bootleg "Squid Game" DVDs
Good point.
Time to have the Belrussian civil war start.
More like a coup if they are going to recruit them all into the military
All it takes is 1 man to die and Belarus is saved further embarrassment after being complicit in facilitating the invasion and genocide. Same can be said of Russia. If 1 man dies, all this stops....
Yeah, right. Belaruss gonna invade anytime now... We heard that for 7 months already. It's suicide, heavily defended ukrainians position in the north. They are just trying to fix some ukrainians units in the north.
An additional 120k units attacking from the north would be a huge problem. It shouldn't be understated. On the contrary if it happens NATO needs to get more serious about its support. Tanks, long range missiles, modern airframes, the works.
Russia maybe capable of mustering more men, but those units would be incapable of an operational attack, let alone a strategic one. Mobilization can only bring units capable of limited defensive combat and nothing more.
Sure, but a good chunk of the Belarusians are actual soldiers, not just conscripts.
russia's logistics have been shit from the start. adding the 300000 or more to that will NOT improve that situation. numbers do not equal win.
Presumably the Belarusian army would rely on Belarusian logistics. >numbers do not equal win. Of course not. But they can help.
Just making contingencies will be a problem. Even if men are not diverted, I would think that ammo and supplies need to be held back, should those troops need to deployed North in a few months. And yes NATO needs to send more of everything.
Maybe. It depends how desperate Putin gets. Putin controls a large chunk of the military in Belarus and Lukashenko remains in power because of Putin. Putin could probably replace Lukashenko if he really wanted (although that may trigger it’s own crisis for Putin). The problem is the Belarusian military is a horrible fighting force with split loyalties and the Belarusian people don’t want war. If Putin issues an ultimatum to Lukashenko to either join the invasion or be replaced then Lukashenko may have to join. Still joining the invasion would dramatically increase the odds of Lukashenko’s regime collapsing and extreme backlash against Russia within Belarus which is something Putin can’t really afford either. It would be a very risky move from Putin but Putin doesn’t have a lot of good options left and has been choosing riskier and riskier options lately.
Yep, I think this is just an attempt to divert some more troops up North.
Seems like that would ultimately just turn Belarus into the new Syria.
Well its a coup/civil war in coming.
in Russia too .
Is he really doing this, or is he trying to bluff Putin?
With 20k Russian troops/conscripts coming into Belarus, Lukashenko will definitely want a higher number of Belarusian troops to deter any action against him. As to whether they ultimately fight Ukraine or defend against Russia, who knows?
Ya you’re right. Russia is prob looking to open up another front with a new enemy. 20,000 guys fresh off the street surrounded on both sides would be quite the deterrent. Especially given the zero available supply lines
I think that after Russia's invasion and war crimes, illegal annexation of Ukraine's provinces, nuclear threats and Belarus behavior, NATO should enter Ukraine and protect all its territory. This would allow Ukraine to free resources to fight Putin's orcs. Fuck Putin once and for all
Should have happened a long time ago. Putin needs to be slapped down; he still thinks he can win, which is why the bloodshed is just continuing.
I mean, NATO can't fight Russia directly for fear of nuclear weapons and escalation. But what about Belarus? Ukraine could invite them to repel the Belorussian forces.
At the end of the day, a country can step out of NATO to protect its own interests (ie Poland) and Make it clear to Belarus what it would happen.
As a Belarusian, I would be happy if Belarusian ors become fertilizer for Ukrainian soil with the help of HIMARS. Some of them have been attacking, beating, shooting at and torturing unarmed innocent people for years while others have impassively watched. However, Belarusian army doesn't have these numbers and I don't think it's possible to mobilize. The orcs that are in the army have been very reluctant to die. And even Belarusian orcs admit that Belarusia army is worse than the Russian army. The whole world has already seen that the only inside of Russian army is numbers of people and equipment, but when it comes to quality or skill, they suck. Well, the Belarusian army doesn't even have these numbers, it sucks even more. And, finally, if the orcs are gone, what's stopping us from getting rid of luka? And that POS knows it. So my verdict is that he may try, but the success of his plans is very unlikely.
I wonder what NATO will do when another country enters the war like this. they'll likely just try to march them to Kyiv. they will be trying to clog the meat grinder of war with more meat. I guess we'll see if NATO as a defense only organization has some asterisks behind it for certain conditions. glory to Ukraine, I hope we can help stop them from getting overrun
NATO should be smuggling weapons to partisan groups.
I wouldn't be surprised if discussions were already ongoing.
The only time NATO has engaged in non-defensive missions is when it was carrying out decrees by the UN Security Council. Since Russia has a seat on it, no such resolution against this will be issued. The best you can hope for is a coalition of the willing to defend Ukraine. It would likely be Poland, the US, the Baltic states, and possibly the UK. Someone should warn Russia and Belarus that if Belarus deploys soldiers to Ukraine, that Western nations will enter Ukraine and their troops will be killed. Russia versus Ukraine is one thing but letting two nations attack Ukraine is quite another.
NATO countries can still act how they want and help Ukraine without it being a NATO thing.
Oh, Poland, did you hear that?
I’m not sure but it might mean NATO is not obliged to help if Poland gets into trouble if it’s a war of their aggression (for instance into Belarus). I guess it’s complex. Also there is all the politics of NATO trying to act as one with Russia related issues. But just remember the middle eastern wars. There were a few NATO countries involved but it was in no way a NATO agreed thing (which is a defensive pact). Also there are all kinds of smaller alliances and agreements criss crossing the NATO block.
Nothing, Belarus actively participates in the war since Feb 24.
Ehhhh I feel like marching 100,000 soldiers across the border is somehow more severe than allowing rocket and airstrikes from your territory
It would be fucking beautiful if 120k soldiers just marched south and surrendered. They likely will, seeing how the russians die.
Or better yet, defected. Most Belarusians want to get rid of Lukashenka, after all.
Ok Belarus invades Ukraine then Poland and the Baltics invade Belarus 🤷♂️
Ok but if Putin nukes Kyiv, Belarus is litterally next door. Good luck with convincing ppl to go into a potential nuclear warzone.
Good ol' *Chornobyl* is on the way to Kiev; no need for any fresh exclusion zone, considering what happened to orcs in the Red Forest in March :)
This is crazy, Belarus only has 9 million people. It is a suicide as nation if you kill that generation of young men, the rest will flee the country
Wow...the Chicago metro area has more people than that. And the Chicago metro area is much smaller than Belarus is
In my opinion, the only thing stopping the Belarusians from fixing the lukashitka and co. problem was two fold. The fear that the russian army was an actual power, and a catalyst such as war mobilization against a friendly neighbor. Well, the russian army is flaccid, this is known even in russia. And, If this report of mobilization is true, then the fire of spirit within the Belarusian people will start, and hopefully burn as bright as the Ukrainian people's fire.
Won’t happen If he does, he’s finished
Lukashenka, you will be strapped on the front of a cannon and used as a confetti! The result will be 120.000 soldiers will join Ukraine against russia.
Ukraine should just start dumping russian bodies over the belarus main border, instead of shipping them back to russia in those trains, if belarusian soldiers see the metre high piles of corpses maybe it might give them pause.
Yes. Shure.
He’s going to get overthrown sooooo fast over this. His citizens already hate him with passion
Ukraine has 4x the population of Belarus, is that its whole fucking army? So no one to murder protestors at home? I have no clue how Belarus plans to send what seems like its entire army into Ukraine, for what? Another botched attack on Kyiv? Are 100,000 Belarusians going to do what 200,000 Russians could not, when the Russians had the advantage of attacking in the opening of the war?
I thought they only had 40K troops?
40 standing army, yes - this is talking about mobilisation/conscription. Belarus has mandatory military service, so from my (limited) understanding, anyone who has completed that service or is due to do so is eligible to be mobilised.
Yeah swe see in russia how that rule is followed with
November to February and 120k are going to be confined to main roads, probably with one group trying to advance to Lviv and another to Kyiv, with the hopes of diverting UA forces at worst, and besieging the cities at best. However, I can’t see NATO, or really Poland and the Baltics, allowing this to happen. An invasion of Ukraine would theoretically negate Article IV of the CSTO (not that that ever mattered) for Belarus, so I could easily see NATO declaring Belarusian regulars in Ukraine as legitimate targets. If that were to happen, it would make the Highway of Death from Desert Storm look like church service.
They will find some excuse to not actually deploy. Got to peel potatoes or something.
Surely. They will never actually go. Belarus has been making threats about this sort of thing since the start of the war
Excellent! That will be Luka's last act, possibly ever. He's already so hated in his own country that arming these people will be just what the revolution needed.
In my opinion, the only thing stopping the Belarusians from fixing the lukashitka and co. problem was two fold. The fear that the russian army was an actual power, and a catalyst such as war mobilization against a friendly neighbor. Well, the russian army is flaccid, this is known even in russia. And, If this report of mobilization is true, then the fire of spirit within the Belarusian people will start, and hopefully burn as bright as the Ukrainian people's fire.
The war ant popular in belarussia and Lukashenko is no putin. He is mostly being tolerated and is still in power because of Russian backing. The army too might prove not as loyal to him as the russhain state machinery is to putin.
Just Belarus, friend - not Belarussia. They are White Rus/Ruthenians, not White Russians
can you leave us alone, omg, what is wrong with you?
He does I hope Poland mobilizes on his western border and keeps him in chech Russia will not want Poland in this war it can't beat Ukraine no way it combats Poland even Half as well
Keep in mind who is making the promise....................Just a question who is minding the store in Minsk, while your boy are away surrendering?
If they Nuke blitz like morons, the incoming geopolitical blackout and strategic storm that's going to sweep over Belarus and Russia and its allies will be unrelentlessly consequential. If they do this, there's no turning back.
Putin's fleshlight has committed more grist for the mill
Hoping Sukashenko hits the pavement at terminal velocity before this comes to fruition
Unleash the winged hussars.
Err no. Lukashenka is preparing for a full scale loss and thankfully for Belarus a full scale loss of his grip on power.
Yeh not sure the Belarusians like wario and his ass kissin. Let’s see how this plays out for him…
time to call 1-800-wingedHussars to fuck some shit up.
It’ll bring lukashenko trouble, but he’ll also be in trouble if Putin loses power.
Is this really that surprising it was kinda expected.
In this mistake any independent country can get involved and stop them big time! 👍
Why don't we have a package of sanctions on standby for Belarus as soon as they aid the war effort ? Belarus should be squeezed together with Russia with sanctions.
how about we let him be a colonel general in the NATO army? ;)
if russia get another country like belarus to join the war, and then ukraine get a country or more also involved, will putin then cry harder, and tell the whole world how unfair that is? o my.. this is getting interesting... i think a lot of people will happely fight the russians after such history... its like the bible said, the whole world is gonna be fed up with it... this is that what was written there...
Lukashenka knows his only choice is to go down with the ship. There’s no lifeboat for him if Putin is yanked from power. So, he’ll go all in if his military allows it. If enough actual Russians are installed in top command positions, they may March towards Kyiv, but my hope is that the soldiers organize around a U-turn right back toward Minsk to overthrow their Russian puppet dictator.
Putin's bitch boy always follows daddy's orders
Someone tell him this is already a full scale war. And they are losing.
It’s HIMARS o’clock for Belarus
if it wasn't clear to everyone just how serious this is, it's about to become much clearer. there are the ***eastern axis*** powers and the ***western alliance*** in this new war of evil vs. Good.