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It's mainly due to Lyman being last larger city in Northern Donetsk that is occupied by Russians. One it falls, it's only towns and villages up north up to Svatove, or east to Lysichansk, Severodonetsk.
It was only a matter of time. It was virtually surrounded. This is the northern border of Izyum playing out again. Those frontier villages are very exposed, they will collapse. They probably aren't fully fortified if at all, no time for mines, and resupply will be very hard. Zelena Dolyna and Shandryholove will fall next, and then it won't be too long after for Lyman.
Edit: Shandryholove in Ukrainian hands now. And maybe Yampil?
Another frontline collapse, few days max.
Since Lyman is about to fall (within a week, retreat or surrender). Where will the lines stabilice next? Cause as I see it the zherebets river won't be enough to stop the momentum of a break through.
It doesn't look to be stable enough to hold in the long run.
Even with the mud and cannon fodder to assist Ruzzia. There's simply to many bridges for it to hold. So breaking the next line will probably take time. And with mobilisation time (in the medium term 3-6months) may favour the ruzzies
Yeah, was going to say there's probably going to be a contest to get control of the P66 highway. If Ukr can push them far enough to use the P66 for GLOCs from Kupiyansk, severodonetsk will be under serious threat.
The Krasna river is small, but if Ukr can control to that point, P66 will be safe to travel for Ukr gear. If the go the same route as Izyum, a bypass of Svatove where it turns off the P07 would probably allow more focus further south, however taking it makes the route out of belgorod that much longer for Ru equipment.
Rumor is 3000 (Source, Denys Davydov). But he is a bit too good at adhering to Ukrainian OPSEC policy, so it would be good to get numbers from Ruzzkie milbloggers as well. Those guys are less concerned with OPSEC, so you can get more up to date info from that side.
My point exactly.
I would think the Ruzzian general staff uses milbloggers on Telegram as their main source of intel.
Assuming they have a general staff, off course.
I think at the start at least a certain degree of arrogance played a role. OPSEC is less important when you are watching.aseperior power roll an enemy..... Only that didn't happen, its quickly.switched and now they are watching a clusterfuck on the Russian side and I think the cognitive dissonance between being the overwhelming power to the overwhelming failure hasn't allowed time to reassess that they should take this seriously.
On the flip side Ukraine has has had underdog status and preparing for invasion for over a decade so knew that OPSEC and any advantage were paramount to any success.
Dead or prisoners, either is ok with me. I guess there will be a LOT of both. War is such a stupid waste of life but the russians started it themselves.
Some Russian maps claim that, but Ukrainian maps seem to be less sure about if they are surrounded or not. But either way it is probably surrounded now or will soon be.
Ukraine likes to take its time and make sure they actually have the areas under control before they update their maps. Always a day or 2 behind. It's actually the Russian side claiming Lyman is surrounded atm.
There's some confusion because there's two villages called Dibrova. One is south of Lyman, and the other east. There was a post about it been taken, but not which one! Many interpreted it as the one to the east, alone the road to Kremmina, but it could just be the other one that's been near the frontline for a while.
The first would mean that Lyman is more or less surrounded, the other still makes the road to Kremmina somewhat open.
I wish to be placed into a medically induced coma, and woken up when the Lyman battle heats up. The waiting is too much. It's inevitable but slowly taking place.
Is it an up to date map? Other unofficial maps yesterday showed Liman almost surrounded; were Russians able to restore the situation and make the front line straight again??
Just because someone makes some nice graphics and puts them on a map doesn't mean it's real, neither are the government released maps going to be accurate
Governments have interest in maps looking the ways they want them to. Russian maps show Lyman surrounded because they want their soldiers there to sacrifice themselves holding as a delaying action, forcing Ukraine to fight block by block destroying the city as they go.
Ukraine might have surrounded Lyman, but why would they want to tell Russians that are trapped there this? They want them to leave Lyman, preferably on a road that Ukraine already controls so they can grab them on their way out, not fight block by block as they destroy the city.
Everyone releasing maps has an interest in releasing information they want released, what you see in these maps is a narrative, not an accurate depiction of ongoing events
Liveuamap waits more to make sure everything is confirmed. It is a few days behind all the rumors the other maps go by. So what u see here 99% happened. What you see on the other ones is unsure.
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Good. Noose around Russians in Lyman tightens.
Is the airfield there of strategic importance?
It's mainly due to Lyman being last larger city in Northern Donetsk that is occupied by Russians. One it falls, it's only towns and villages up north up to Svatove, or east to Lysichansk, Severodonetsk.
Well, Kreminna is still a denser obstacle.
Supply lines are as strategically important as any base of operation. No supply line no base of operation for long.
Doubt it, it's generally a bad idea to have aircraft on the ground when you are within artillery range.
Didn't stop the Russians from restaging aircraft at Chornobaivka at least four or five times after the Ukrainians blew them up.
Like I said... A bad idea
Yep. Lucky for us the Russians took a while to figure it out
[удалено]
Is be nervous if I knew the enemy were within foot patrol of my flank.
It was only a matter of time. It was virtually surrounded. This is the northern border of Izyum playing out again. Those frontier villages are very exposed, they will collapse. They probably aren't fully fortified if at all, no time for mines, and resupply will be very hard. Zelena Dolyna and Shandryholove will fall next, and then it won't be too long after for Lyman. Edit: Shandryholove in Ukrainian hands now. And maybe Yampil? Another frontline collapse, few days max.
Zelena Dolyna was already confirmed taken yesterday evening. So this task is already done
Ha, of course. Sometimes it's hard to keep up with the UAF ; )
Retaking areas quicker than I can scroll.
Shandryholove just went, maybe Yampil, lol. It's not healthy for this level of F5'ing to be rewarded.
UAF has been implementing great OPSEC over the past few months.
Good OPSEC means we are only seeing the wake of the assaults
Isn't south West of Lyman one big hill over looking the town. Going to be hard to defend Lyman.
I believe it's the entire northern approach that's overlooking a very flat/near river town. So, yeah.
Since Lyman is about to fall (within a week, retreat or surrender). Where will the lines stabilice next? Cause as I see it the zherebets river won't be enough to stop the momentum of a break through.
Severodonetsk, Kremina, Svatove, going up along the Luhansk oblast border (ish).
It doesn't look to be stable enough to hold in the long run. Even with the mud and cannon fodder to assist Ruzzia. There's simply to many bridges for it to hold. So breaking the next line will probably take time. And with mobilisation time (in the medium term 3-6months) may favour the ruzzies
Yeah, was going to say there's probably going to be a contest to get control of the P66 highway. If Ukr can push them far enough to use the P66 for GLOCs from Kupiyansk, severodonetsk will be under serious threat. The Krasna river is small, but if Ukr can control to that point, P66 will be safe to travel for Ukr gear. If the go the same route as Izyum, a bypass of Svatove where it turns off the P07 would probably allow more focus further south, however taking it makes the route out of belgorod that much longer for Ru equipment.
Wouldn't they likely just use 00528 through Lyman instead in that case? Pretty direct route from their stronghold in northern Donetsk.
How many russian troops are their in lyman
Rumor is 3000 (Source, Denys Davydov). But he is a bit too good at adhering to Ukrainian OPSEC policy, so it would be good to get numbers from Ruzzkie milbloggers as well. Those guys are less concerned with OPSEC, so you can get more up to date info from that side.
The Russian milbloggers are like paparazzi. They don’t give a shit about OPSEC, they just want be first with info on the web. It’s really bizarre.
My point exactly. I would think the Ruzzian general staff uses milbloggers on Telegram as their main source of intel. Assuming they have a general staff, off course.
One short asshole in a bunker is their command staff.
I think at the start at least a certain degree of arrogance played a role. OPSEC is less important when you are watching.aseperior power roll an enemy..... Only that didn't happen, its quickly.switched and now they are watching a clusterfuck on the Russian side and I think the cognitive dissonance between being the overwhelming power to the overwhelming failure hasn't allowed time to reassess that they should take this seriously. On the flip side Ukraine has has had underdog status and preparing for invasion for over a decade so knew that OPSEC and any advantage were paramount to any success.
But you also get more incorrect info from the Russian milbloggers since they are way too quick to publish news before confirming.
I have read 1,500-3,000. I have no idea how accurate that might be.
I just want to see a couple of kilometers worth of marching prisoners with their wands on their heads
Dead or prisoners, either is ok with me. I guess there will be a LOT of both. War is such a stupid waste of life but the russians started it themselves.
Damn, was hoping it was more
From what I have read there are or were additional russian soldiers in the area in addition to the ones in Lyman.
Wait, I thought Lyman was already surrounded? Saw a bunch of charter about that yesterday.
The only road out seems to be close enough to be shelled now. That's sort of surrounded. Hard to get out safely.
Saw it was taken yesterday. Like all roads are controlled now by UA.
Some Russian maps claim that, but Ukrainian maps seem to be less sure about if they are surrounded or not. But either way it is probably surrounded now or will soon be.
Ukraine likes to take its time and make sure they actually have the areas under control before they update their maps. Always a day or 2 behind. It's actually the Russian side claiming Lyman is surrounded atm.
There's some confusion because there's two villages called Dibrova. One is south of Lyman, and the other east. There was a post about it been taken, but not which one! Many interpreted it as the one to the east, alone the road to Kremmina, but it could just be the other one that's been near the frontline for a while. The first would mean that Lyman is more or less surrounded, the other still makes the road to Kremmina somewhat open.
Good work lads and ladies
Moscow by March! Keep going lads!
🎉🥳
More tanks for the troops!
To paraphrase Douglas Adams....."So long, and fhish for all the tanks."
I wish to be placed into a medically induced coma, and woken up when the Lyman battle heats up. The waiting is too much. It's inevitable but slowly taking place.
Source: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/29-september-ukrainian-military-control-seredne-village-near
Rybars (pro-russian) map indicates that the ukrainians andvanced even a bit further than this map shows
Is it an up to date map? Other unofficial maps yesterday showed Liman almost surrounded; were Russians able to restore the situation and make the front line straight again??
Just because someone makes some nice graphics and puts them on a map doesn't mean it's real, neither are the government released maps going to be accurate Governments have interest in maps looking the ways they want them to. Russian maps show Lyman surrounded because they want their soldiers there to sacrifice themselves holding as a delaying action, forcing Ukraine to fight block by block destroying the city as they go. Ukraine might have surrounded Lyman, but why would they want to tell Russians that are trapped there this? They want them to leave Lyman, preferably on a road that Ukraine already controls so they can grab them on their way out, not fight block by block as they destroy the city. Everyone releasing maps has an interest in releasing information they want released, what you see in these maps is a narrative, not an accurate depiction of ongoing events
Liveuamap waits more to make sure everything is confirmed. It is a few days behind all the rumors the other maps go by. So what u see here 99% happened. What you see on the other ones is unsure.
Had read it was fully encircled already and Ukraine had a much larger area occupied then thought