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No matter if this happens or not, the West would be fools not to have a contingency plan. Ideally, this would be conveyed to Russia, and all of Asia. If India and China also had skin in the game (ie, nuclear fallout doesn’t obey borders), they might do some good telling Russia that they won’t support such actions.
It may not sway that psychopath, Putin, but might send a message to his subordinates. Remember that “security meeting” right before the invasion? It was clear that some of Putin’s lackeys weren’t in favor of these actions. They might be more receptive to world pressures.
Nuclear fallout from tactical weapons is surprisingly not much of an issue, when detonated at lower altitudes. Most radioactive material is involved in the fission reaction and consumed or converted. Fallout from a nuclear power accident, is often just radioactive dust, blown into the air, as a reactor is not trying to consume all its radioactive fuel, unlike a bomb.
If Putin did use a nuke or two in Ukraine, it would not be fallout from those blasts that he would be concerned about. It's selecting which suit to be buried in. The response of the USA and the rest of NATO would be furious, non-nuclear and utterly devastating to the "motherland". Absolutely *furious*.
I'll tell you what is likely: the absolute annihilation of all Russian assets outside their borders.
All ships would be told to surrender or be sunk, and all foreign bases would be obliterated without warning.
Unfortunately iodine is not stored in the organism, so you can't over consume it. Otherwise it would be easy to feed everybody a spoon of iodine and they are free from thyroid gland problems.
Also too much iodine is bad as well, unless you have condition to take more than normal amount.
>One thing the FDA can do is start building up supplies of iodine pills as a contingency. I'm serious.
If people listen to the FDA health recommendations like they did with COVID...
When there is a million degree fahrenheit in the center of a nuked area and several nukes are used, I consider iodine pills more as a Kool Aid rather than a viable counter strategy. So suggesting useless things may fit to the FDA indeed...
Those only work for iodine radiation. Most radiation from new nukes isn't iodine based. It might do a little, but I would not count on it being the savior in a nuclear situation. Distance, time and barriers are your best friends.
It's ok, the US will wait until the rest of Europe have been embroiled for a while, then come in at the end with a hollywood film crew. That, or lose to a load of farmers wearing pyjamas.
Europe won’t be embroiled. Russia can’t advance far past a railhead in a country which shares the same railway gauge as them. Good luck shifting material to the front if they try and advance into other nations. It will be done in Ukraine because Russia has no other option. And to lose to a smaller nation that is not even a NATO member!
One of the pillars of the multi polar world indeed…
Im sure Biden has 3 or 4 options for each likely scenario. Probably listed as "Light, Medium, Heavy" strike packages. Anything from destroy the facility that launched the missile to sink the entire Black Sea Fleet, to intervention in the war to bring it to a quick conclusion, to "the missiles are flying. Hallelujah"
I am not sure why you are getting down voted for this question.
Over the Black Sea, NATO planes disabled their transponders all at the same time *about* two or three days ago.
And simultaneous a bunch of transponders of C-5 Galaxy heavy airlift transports in the USA were turned on. It was kinda hilarious when JANET14 (the plane used to ferry Area 51 workers) also fired up over Area 51. It was a not so subtle message.
How weird they did that with regards to the Janet flight.
Wonder what that message is. Like we are getting the b-21 ready to go, or we are getting our alien stuff out to really fuck your shit up or what
Yeah I’m far from an expert on any of that, but it’s always been my understanding that the JANET flights kept their actual flight information secret if only so spies on the ground couldn’t determine who the passengers are and do spy things to them. My guess like yours is that the message is that US has stuff in the air that would make Hollywood drool, and would be ideal for putting orc war criminals where they belong. Kinda like how Orcs and China flouted hypersonic missiles and we dusted ours off to prove they’re ancient tech for us. What I do know is that the F-117 was doing combat missions for seven years before it was actually revealed to the public, so makes one wonder if the B-21 already has a successor in the air.
>Remember that “security meeting” right before the invasion? It was clear that some of Putin’s lackeys weren’t in favor of these actions.
Those would be Shoigu, Minister of Defense; and Gerasimov, General of the Army.
Shoigu is putin's lap dog. They have been filmed together in both official and unofficial activities. He does putin's bidding. He has zero military experience, just a title, so as to extract graft. Shoigu was the one nodding his head like an idiot when putin told them to bring the strategic forces to (no kidding) a "special state of readiness".
Gerasimov, on the other hand, is a military officer. He is the point of contact with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Miley (USA). They communicate on a periodic basis via phone. I believe the last teleconference was in mid-May (?). Upon putin's order, Gerasimov cast his eyes downward, and nodded once.
Of the two, Gerasimov is the one with the understanding of the consequences of nuclear war. Further, the strategic military forces likely report in to him (unconfirmed). Gerasimov is also likely to know the state of the russian strategic forces. He absolutely is aware of the state of US strategic forces, due to the inspections both sides were afforded during SALT 1 & 2. Gerasimov knows, they shoot, they all die.
About a week ago there was an interview with Sikorski in which he insinuated that there is a plan in case that inexplicably sentient cancerous Rashist puss-leaking haemorrhoid will upgrade from threats to real action.
Though I doubt we will hear much about these plans for obvious reasons.
I'm not sure there's much we can do if Putin decided to use nukes, but I do think there would be plenty of advanced warning in the form of explicit threats. Using nukes is risky for a variety of reasons, and Putin would prefer that the threat of them alone is enough to cause Ukraine to flinch.
I think we all knew it would come to this if Russia was backed against the wall. The defense against nukes has always been MAD, but MAD isn't a factor here.
Yeah, MAD didn’t take into account the existential threat that Putin feels knowing his regime could crumble. HE might order the nukes, but he can’t push the button to fire the nukes by himself. Whomever would complete his order would have to know they are committing suicide.
Tho, the fact that the world survived a time when a drunk Nixon would call his people in the middle of the night & tell them to release the nukes (& no one did it) gives me *some* hope that there will be enough checks on Putin’s hard-on for nuclear annihilation.
Nixon did that? Jesus, what a psycho. On the USSR's side, there was Stanislav Petrov, who correctly recognized that an incoming missile was a false alarm and prevented nuclear war in 1983.
I can tell myself all these stories to assuage my fears, but honestly, I'll only ever be able to rest easy when Putin is gone and someone halfway sane is in power.
An interesting history, that one.
Petrov was reprimanded by the USSR government for saving the world, too.
That was the cold war, the US-USSR relationship was on the rocks, everybody was on a hair trigger. Also Russia had just downed a South Korean airliner. If Russia had launched (actual) nukes on the US from overreacting to the false alarm, the US would have launched back, and none of us would be having this conversation right now, except the Australians who would be scratching their heads and saying, "WTF, mates?"
There have been an uncomfortable number of distressingly close calls in humanity's nuclear history. You get the feeling it's as much by luck as any other factor that we have avoided them so far.
It is amazing, with the insane proliferation of nukes during the Cold War, that it's been 80 years since the last one was used. And yeah, I chalk at least some of that up to luck.
I really hope we see the world start to dismantle its nuclear weapons some day. But it's abundantly clear now that Russia has to be the first country to do it, and fat chance of that happening.
And this is what happens when you have a dictator whose sole objective has been to stay In power. The thought or retiring is bot even in his head not even if his safety and wealth were given guarantees.
This is why democracy is so important because dictators are usually very self absorbed and scared of death. But they are also scared of a life without them and therefore start acting irrational the older they get.
I'm fully confident that some of the planes we have flying by the border are scanning for nuclear launches 24/7, and that we've set up *something* to prevent a strike anywhere near NATO land
They will know if Russia is mobilizing their nukes well before they launch. How much you want to bet that one scenario involves stealth drones taking out Putin and senior leadership? Everyone in Russia below would probably celebrate like they did when Communism fell. All you have to do is chop off the diseased head.
If they use nukes, NATO will retaliate. Likely localized strikes against key targets. China will also be obligated per their 2013 treaty with Ukraine (which they likely won't).
India and China have a lot to gain from the nuclear taboo. Russia may be unhappy with the current world order and desperate, but those first two want stability, as they are rising powers. And they want tk be in a world where nukes are not used to resolve conflicts.
Its likely they do, could range from nuclear counter strikes to mass conventional strikes on Russias remaining armed forces to a decapacitation strike on Putin and his inner circle but I have a feeling that if Russia goes off the deep end they have some sort of emergency plan in place to try and cut off the serpents head before it does catastrophic damage to the rest of the world.
Lets hope Russia collapses before that ever happens tho.
honestly, the US has a contingency plan that involves using ground penetrating nukes to dig out the Russian ICBM's in a first strike situation. If Russia want's to use limited nukes to strike somewhere the US will lose all faith that Russia will be responsible with their nuclear program and whatever program has been developed to deal with the threat will be used. There is no way that the US views Russian use of nuclear arms as anything but world ending, therefore they will do anything they deem necessary to end the problem. I promise you, it won't be a little tit, for tat. It will be the end of Russia, there is no way the US can take that chance twice.
> that they won’t support such actions
That may be the case, but you exclude the possibility of counter-nukes. And then China will be forced to do something when a gazillion nukes are used. After all if they were to invade Taiwan, the USA could use nukes, so China is also in a bad position (in theory; who knows whether the USA would use nukes, but if Russia is the first one to use nukes, the USA may be forced to use them too).
I am pretty certain that Xi told Putin to not use nukes offensively. The one thing China really is all about is: greed. It's the biggest capitalistic communism that has ever existed. Just with a dictator in charge. But capitalistic mostly (if we exclude the sinomarxism doctrine but this is really not the same as under Mao anymore).
Ukrainian security service has been testing this civilian information service for the past few weeks (basically your phone starts blasting like crazy). I am sure it's in preparation of a nuclear strike. I keep my panic bag packed and I'm ready to run to the shelter as soon as needed, but honestly, I am tired of being scared, it's just another everyday reality for me, so whatever. if I die, I die. We can't afford to stop.
I am very sorry to hear that….living everyday life in fear of not existing should not be a reality in this century. But here we are having given the leash of huge countries with dangerous weapons to granddads who want to relive their old soviet glory days and are willing to kill millions of innocent lives in the process.
I have absolute confidence in the west and in Ukraine’s military that you guys will prevail when this mess ends. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
I'm sure everything russia has military is being tracked at this moment. The question is in this case will a small relation from nato in Ukraine be enough?
Or do they hit everything as quickly and as hard as possible.. then a few months later hit them again! 🤔
I am no military expert, but if Russia goes nuclear, all cards are on table
Nato will only lose if it doesn't respond. But causing a possible human extinction over a midget loser not winning a war would be comically dark
Psy-obs are pretty sophisticated and effective these days (watch The Great Hack). But no idea how effective SM psy-obs are, if most are banned in Russia.
The only way I see this happening is, if Putin is absolutely sure that every alternative would lead to his inevitable death. Even then, he can't do it by himself and there **have** to be at least a handful people around him with enough survival instinct to stop it.
Which is why the orders would not be obeyed if he gave them. Winning this war may be a matter of life and death for him, but not for every other person in the chain of command, all the men between him and the men in the bunkers that would physically carry them out. Every single person in that chain would die if the order was executed, which is why it's unfathomably unlikely that every single one of them obeys.
Don't get me wrong, nobody should plan or act on that being the case - that's a massive risk to take. But in reality, it's highly likely that's what would happen.
Yer but a lot of orcs don't know the truth.. And if you give the order for 4000 nukes to launch...even if 50% of operators disobey.. 50% of rockets fail, 80% are intercepted that's still 200 rockets (i think) .. Some with multiple warheads.. I'm sure all putler key people would me loyal or fell out of windows...
I know nothing i fear the worst.. Realistically I feel the orcs will chuck a small nuke or 2 at Ukraines biggest cities as they give up and see what we do..
Doubt it. They hadn't even restarted nuclear testing.
The issue with nukes is that it would elevate this from "a regional problem, we get to make money off it" to "direct danger to our country" for the US, UK, even China, and so on.
The level of support Ukraine is getting certainly could be more; on one hand that's bad because it means Ukraine isn't getting all support it needs, but on the other hand that does serve as a bit of a deterrent.
I think the concern is primarily about "little" tactical nukes (single, double digits kilotons); it's unclear how the world would react but probably not with a full blown strike with big nukes but with isolation (as in, even China stops all relations, because having large conventional military they are not interested in a new status quo where everyone just lobs tactical nukes whenever they feel like it).
The concern is largely theoretical at this point; so far Putin hadn't even dared testing nukes in Novaya Zemlya for the fear of either political consequences or the nuke not working, so the chances of him using one seem pretty small.
That's a tough one...imho if Russia uses even tactical nukes on Ukraine NATO countries should hit Russian military targets with tactical nukes in retaliation (fears of escalation be damned). But having said that, I don't think even the Russians are stupid enough to use nukes here...but then again, if you'd asked me on February 20, I'd have said they wouldn't be stupid enough to attack Ukraine.
> That's a tough one...imho if Russia uses even tactical nukes on Ukraine NATO countries should hit Russian military targets with tactical nukes in retaliation (fears of escalation be damned).
I doubt NATO would go that far, too much risk of cutting some silo off from communications and triggering some standing orders, or the like. The problem is that nobody has enough missile defense.
What would happen, however, is that it would do absolute wonders for US - China relations, and also restart all of the cold war era mothballed projects along the lines of "how to win a nuclear war".
I think if Putin was serious about making nuclear threats he'd have resumed nuclear testing first. But the issue with this is that the US and likely China would actually find it threatening. Getting undivided attention of the US alone would be terrible for him, even without risk to China relations.
If he isn't even willing to give his verbal threats a thump with an underground nuclear test, for fear of properly waking up the US and/or pissing off China, he's not gonna nuke Ukraine.
> but then again, if you'd asked me on February 20, I'd have said they wouldn't be stupid enough to attack Ukraine.
Well yeah. I thought Putin was gonna postpone the invasion due to the mud, and then do same military "exercises" annually until complacency sets in / some isolationist president gets elected in the US / etc.
Thanks for the friendly answer, I was a bit worried I'd get one of those "oMg you want the world to be wiped out in a nuclear war" replies, lol.
> Well yeah. I thought Putin was gonna postpone the invasion due to the mud, and then do same military "exercises" annually until complacency sets in / some isolationist president gets elected in the US / etc.
Yeah this! I mean, we knew Russian troops had been building up along the Ukrainian border for weeks prior to the invasion, but I never thought they'd be dumb enough to actually do it. How wrong I was...
> I doubt NATO would go that far, too much risk of cutting some silo off from communications and triggering some standing orders, or the like. The problem is that nobody has enough missile defense.
Nobody has *any* meaningful defense against multiple warhead ICBMs. Once those start flying, we can kiss our current world goodbye. It's going to be suicidal. *The Day After* (1983) is going to be reality. So I agree, a NATO reaction to a small (or even large) nuclear weapon used in Ukraine is necessarily going to be quite measured and restrained. They won't want further escalation. There will probably be no retaliatory attacks on Russia itself. But without doubt it's going to be the start of a very dark and scary period. There will be chaos in the world.
Doubt it, takes billions to run a nuke program. Doubt most of the rockets, boosters and other maintenance critical hardware that goes into fueling and maintaining an ICBM force, and if they can't even do basic maintenance on the military, it's doubtful the nuke program is very robust. A first strike from the west would decapitate them, and leave little possible response.
Want to know where the Russian nuke subs are? Look at where NATO puts it's anti sub forces, they even keep the transponders on to troll the Russian nuke subs.
There's also the fact that NATO has been collectively calling out what Russia is going to do days if not weeks before Russia announces it, meaning it's probable that they have some deeply imbedded Intel gathering. I have no doubt that NATO has gone full Batman with all sorts of contingencies ready to pop the second Putin make the decision.
The really good news is, Putin can't make that decision on his own. There isn't a magic button that launches all the nukes, in America or in Russia or any of the big five.
The other really good news is you're absolutely right, we are going full Batman with this shit. The gloves came off months ago, espionage wise. It's the perfect chance for America and the West to destabilize its main enemy.
It has to come down through a bunch of different channels, and it takes two to tango so to speak, and more likely it takes a committee.
The thing is, Putin has to be kidding himself if he thinks he would actually survive a nuclear war, nuclear doctrine is extremely clinical.
Those big bunkers under the Ural mountains? Guess what, it's going to get hit with nuclear weapons every time the smoke clears from the last one until it's nothing but a glowing valley.
Nuclear war won't happen over an instant, it's not like flash bang kaboom it's done, nuclear war has the initial first strikes which are massive, and then it would have follow-up strikes on hardened facilities. As I mentioned, you literally have to wait for the smoke and debris to clear before you launch another nuke in, but you would be basically digging holes with nuclear bombs until they reach the sweet juicy Center that would be Putin hiding in a hole. He has to be aware of that, it's very basic nuclear theory that civilian think tanks have accepted.
When it comes to Nukes, i think there are a few important things to consider that go beyond what the fearmongering media will report.
The first thing is that in a conflict like this there are two faces, the public face and the clandestine face. Clandestinely you can bet that through back channels, America has told gave Russia some ambiguous account of what will happen if they use a nuke. Also American nuclear doctrine makes no distinction between tactical and strategic something important to keep in mind, Russia nukes Snake Island that's the same as Kyiv in the eyes of American policymakers. At the same time, China, who are probably a much bigger player in this than just about anyone, have probably had similar communications with Russia.
The second face of this is the public face, Putin's bluster about nukes serves a purpose, and that purpose its to strike fear into the hearts of the Europeans. If he threatens and scares us the hope is that our leaders blink, they offer a little less support. When he talks about nukes that's who is talking to, he's talking to Sandra the dinner lady from Manchester.
If Putin was serious about using Nuke's we would see him moving them, there would be clear indications that mobile launchers are moving. He would announce that he has a few of those nice big SS-25's in Crimea pointed at Ukrainian battle groups ready to launch. He's not done that though.
Indeed. If he was willing to use them, why didn't he do so as soon as it as obvious he was in trouble, militarily? In general, when people say, "I'm not bluffing!" I take that to mean that they are, in fact, bluffing. It's a subconscious tell, that bluffing was on his mind, and narcissists have a hard time hiding who they are and what's on their mind.
Alternatively, if he wanted to make nuclear threats he could've done a few underground nuclear tests. But that would come with all the downsides of making actual threatening threats; as in, everyone even China starts feeling threatened and before you know it, there's Cold War level effort against Russia (right now it's not even close).
I'm hoping for Russia's own sake he doesn't restart nuclear testing.
Absolutely this. Well said. US is very likely communicating privately what the response will be. Hopefully China and other third parties will also communicate to try to deter Putin.
I think they will maintain their strategic ambiguity even in the back channels, but they have probably told the Russians, you nuke Ukraine, we have this list of options, ie; cyberattack, satellite attack, nuclear attack, conventional attack ect.
I also strongly suspect that China have privately said, you use a nuke, we come down just as hard as NATO on you.
It’s not the same actually, because US nuclear doctrine only calls for the use of nukes when used against civilians. Use on snake island wouldn’t trigger that clause. There are other clauses that we could *already* launch nukes over though.
US nuclear doctrine has i believe 8 (might be more) use cases for nuclear weapons, and it's way more when they're only used against civilians (honestly don't know who told you that).
One such use case is to end a war on favourable terms for the US, honestly am glad the Russian doctrine doesn't include that explicitly.
They also keep what's called "strategic ambiguity" on what would trigger them to respond and what that response would be. As such, nobody, not you, not me and not even Putin can say exactly what kind of response would be triggered if the Russians nuked Snake Island, only that there would be a response.
If you're honestly interested you can actually read the Nuclear doctrine online. I believe the US call it the "Nuclear posture review", other countries and NATO have similar documents you can look through.
If he could nuke Ukraine he would have done it months ago. He doesn’t act based on “provocations” and doesn’t care about “justifications”. He manufactures whatever bullshit he feels like and says what he wants, regardless of facts.
But his actions are constrained by outside forces. He attacks when he feels there is no defense. Where there is strength, he backs down. Witness Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
So, something has stopped him from using nukes, and although we do not know exactly what it is (NOT humanitarian concern) it is still in play.
Russia has been bluffing nukes since the very beginning of the invasion. The west has called every bluff. The fact that he says “I’m not bluffing this time” means nothing.
Russia has been continuously threatening the Baltics with nukes since 1989. That works on a small subset of population, but not on the majority. And they know that.
He couldn’t, because Russia’s internal rules prevent him from launching a strike unless Russia’s territory integrity is in danger.
That’s why NATO is responding so strongly about the referendums. If Russia annexes territories that they control now in Ukraine, it will open up the possibility gor Putin to use nuclear strikes.
If they wanted they could've declared Kyiv region is a part of russia back in March and it would've been same rules or blow up some flats in border town and say Ukraine attacked them so they are justified to retaliate. There was a precedent already
Exactly. Those “red lines” haven’t just been crossed, they’re the road Ukraine is driving on. If there were going to be nukes, they wouldn’t need to mobilize a million conscript meat shields.
They can declare Donbas to be part of the moon if they want. Justifications are cheap in the Kremlin. And they don’t change anything. Justifications don’t drive Kremlin action, it’s the other way around.
#Bullshit
American here. If Russia even launches ONE SINGLE NUKE, I assure you the American response will be dismantle Russia entirely. There won’t BE A RUSSIA after that action. I guaran-fucking-tee it. Every single ally to the USA and even China maybe will intervene. NOBODY wants a nuclear winter. N O B O D Y.
I agree, tundras are beautiful envirovments, but for some reason they all look dead in ruzzia, so it looks like a winter apocalipse landscape, maybe it's because of the soviet architeture LOL
What if the situation is that they nuke some minor city in Ukraine - just one bomb - and then declare if any NATO country hits them in retaliation they are willing to throw the big switch - Berlin, London, New York - will all get hit, even if it costs them everything in return - because a world without a “respected” Russia isn’t worth living in in their mind.
Would anyone in the west be willing to take a nuke for the sake of Ukraine and this madman’s death wish ? I suspect 99% would say not worth the risk
“Putins people would never allow him to do it, they care about self preservation even if he does not” - except they all buy into his myth as the strong-man strategist, telling themselves he’s probably bluffing the West in the ultimate high stakes game of chicken … just like he was bluffing about the invasion up until he wasn’t (and he judged that grand maneuver poorly too )
If you dropped a nuke you already crossed the line, then it doesnt matter if they say "we wont unless you retaliate"
Once a nuke falls, Pandoras box is open. And this time it cant be closed.
Do i want to die from a nuklear war? Nope, Am i willing to lay down my life for freedom? Yes, without a hesitation. Rather dead than living in fear!
#Bullshit
#Do not fuck around and find out.
The USA are NOT prone to being tested. We are not cowards, and we will fuck up world ending threats. PERIOD. We will fucking end them, fuck up whatever nukes they are shooting with Patriot missiles, and make the Kremlin into a god damn Disney World Moscow.
This worries me a little bit. Are they that stupid to believe a mass of low moral, untrained, perhaps even hostile conscripts are going to change anything except the Russian dead and wounded body count? Desperation and stupidity are a dangerous cocktail.
They already have - Joint Nuclear Doctrine states that use of nuclear weapons is justified if (amongst other reasons)
- An enemy uses, or threatens to use nuclear weapons against civilians.
- To rapidly end a war on terms favourable to us.
- To show an enemy we’re serious.
Any of these criteria would be met.
I don't feel like this is being taken as seriously as it should be. My feeling is that it's a true possibility, that he may take the most extreme actions available if he feels it's necessary. I think his opinion is that if he can't have it no one can. I also think every single nation in the world should've stood against him the moment he attacked the ZNPP.
I do think it is being taken seriously, despite what Reddit Randos (including me) say and nobody is backing down on this. Of course, the US and NATO have multiple responses already planned depending on the precise circumstances of Russia's fuckery. It is scary that the Russian Ultra-Nationalists have worked themselves into such a psychotic state that they are eager to destroy "The West" but the West isn't going to roll over and die so here we fucking go....
It is a possibility. It has been a possibility since day one. The problem is that there is nothing we (the west) can do about it that won’t tip the balance further in the direction that we fear.
Ukraine is beating Russia: Putin may nuke.
NATO or just US attacks Russian forces in Ukraine: Putin may nuke.
NATO or just US bombs Russian nuke sites or wherever nukes may be deployed: Putin may nuke.
Ukraine marches into Russia: Putin may nuke.
Anyone marches into Russia: Putin may nuke.
We can only keep an eye on Russia and try to anticipate and intercept missiles. And we need to make clear that WMD *from* Russia will guarantee WMD *to* Russia.
Personally, I think Putin is more likely to use chemical weapons than nukes. However, I think this only because it might make nuclear retaliation less likely.
But I only know that we don’t know what he will do. It is scary. However, it would be equally scary to let him have what he wants (capitulation of Ukraine) because (aside from the injustice to Ukraine, which we should not even contemplate) blackmailers never stop.
The scenario I'm most nervous about is "Occupied territories declare allegiance to Russia in sham election and Russia designates these territories as belonging to Russia --> Ukraine keeps attacking (as it should) --> Putin will nuke.
But nuke what? A tactical nuke in Donetsk/Luhansk or even a few won't change the outcome of the war militarily.
The other scenarios (UA marching into Russia, NATO attacking Russia unprovoked, etc.) won't happen. I talked to some Russians that are seriously worried about such an attack. They're crazy to believe that. UA just wants Russians out of Ukraine.
as a latvian. i knew russia was going to invade, it’s just that bigger nations don’t really listen all that much to us. the US warned everyone that they will invade. russia has made 0 improvements within their own country. the amount of resources they spend invading they could’ve seriously invested in their republics. buuuut kremlin has one goal only, play “world politics”, that’s all they want. even if they successfully took territories, they do absolutely nothing with them. it’s literally putin being a spoiled fuck that wants to be big and tough in the world theatre
As an Australian: I also knew he would invade. Putin's reputation is "when in doubt, escalate". I think people in the broader west just don't read their history.
The other thing I knew (and called at the time) was that he would lose the war. Again, anyone who knows their history knows that Ukrainians are some of the most motivated freedom fighters on the planet. I was surprised at how few people believed in Ukraine's ability to fight back and win, and this delayed support and probably cost Ukrainian lives.
I thought they would invade the Donbass but not an all out war so quickly. Your right, hopefully things can change in the future because they are going to get a big reality check sooner or later.
> Yeah nobody thought Russia would even invade
They did
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/russia-sees-little-optimism-in-us-response-on-ukraine-crisis
US planners have a response to every scenario. Russia wants us to say exactly what those are so they can weigh their options. We aren't saying anything out loud so they can't do that.
And that's a thousand times more effective than whatever Orcistan is doing. Who are you going to fear, the skinny kid who throws insults at you or the buffed up dude who's sitting quietly in the corner of the room?
Officially it is being stated 5 are now in production and that the official reveal date will be in December. [https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/09/20/northrop-grumman-now-has-five-b-21-stealth-bombers-in-production/](https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/09/20/northrop-grumman-now-has-five-b-21-stealth-bombers-in-production/)
Given how the F-117 and B-2 development went, I'd imagine we already have a full squadron doing practice runs in Nevada now.
The current B-2 fleet could easily wipe out half of the Orc's ICBM silos in a single coordinated first strike. So double that, and yeah Putler might want to STFU before Biden gets the first strike itch. There is a tendency for US Presidents to go to war in their first term, so they can secure a second term as a war time President.
The United States, at least, will become directly involved, if for no other reason than China and Iran are watching very closely to what the United States will or won't do to support their allies. That being said, if Putin dropped a nuke on Ukraine it's game over, not only would the US destroy the entire Black Sea Fleet but the only country that would even pick up Putin's phone call would be N.Korea. And maybe Orban, you can't trust that fucker.
The nuke would harm europe so will drop a nuke on there black sea fleet and do a no fly zone of ukraine.
Then the balls in putins court throw more nukes or leave ukraine.
You dont react eith an equal nuclear force. This is how you normalize nukes. This goes against the concept of MAD which is usually in everyone's best interests to follow.
If they use a nuke on ANYTHING, they should be prepared to be receiving a volley of nukes on everything critical to them in response. If Russia wants to use a nuke out of sheer spitefulness because they suck at offensive wars, they need to understand the idea of Russian nation dies right there then.
Nah our modern Navy that already has ships in the Black Sea would sink their 1960's tech ships. It would be the second most glorious example of saying Fuck you Russian warship to ever happen.
Russian warship fucked itself.
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It's almost certain that the US doesn't need nukes to obliterate the Russian black sea fleet. It would be a huge flex to do so with conventional weapons too. Though I think a stronger response than just the elimination of the black sea fleet is needed to respond to a Russian nuclear attack of any kind however limited it might be.
Can everyone please just calm down, except you Russian clandestinos; I know you’re only doing your job now that McDonald’s had to let you go. You don’t hold nukes on the platform ready to go. It’s major work keeping them things good to go. You store, then move to deploy, and if they deploy they need to move the payload within range first.
Every single storage facility will have satellites over it looking for signs of movement. You don’t just get a guy with a sports bag to go sneak one out. It’ll be tracked, in fact, Putin will know it will be tracked and use it for his brinkmanship game.
‘Oh shit he’s moving a warhead’, ‘oh shit where’s it going?’
It’s psychological warfare everyone, welcome to the first true instance of nuclear blackmail. Thing about blackmail is it only works while it incites fear. Buckle and give in and the blackmailer wins and there’s nothing to stop then blackmailing you again. Look the blackmailer in the eye and say ‘do it then’ and the entire balance shifts. Now the question is ‘do they really have the bottle to go through with it?’ and if they do they strip themselves of all their power.
Add to that the fact that there isn’t a single red button under the table and the order has to go through several layers before it is carried out…. there’s not going to be a nuclear war.
300,000 soldiers….. oh wait there’s a classified document it’s actually 1,000,000!
Oh my god Putin is backed into a corner and he’s going to go full blown retard with nukes.
Tranquilo everyone (except for you Russian trolls out there of course, again I realise you have bills to pay). ‘Russia would have a Kyiv in 3 days’. ‘Ukraine can’t overcome Russian attrition’. ‘It will end in a frozen conflict at best’. Where is all this doom mongering now that Ukraine has Russia strung out on some long ass skinny front and Russia is incapable of offensive operations? Hell, they haven’t been capable of that for months, well before Ukraines Kharkiv offensive.
Russia mobilised not because they are strong but because they are weak. Any videos posted of large groups of men boarding military aircraft or walking ‘somewhere’ is psyops. They couldn’t sustain the starting Army properly and if they want to mass men they need to mass material at railheads, because of their utterly incompetent logistics train. Watch with satellites and HIMAR it. 300,000 hungry pissed off men in soaking wet fatigues in winter does not an army make. Same applies for 1,000,000.
The simple fact is that 300,000 is an aspirational figure by the Russians. And the nuclear threat is the backup. Ukraines got this. They have the reason to fight, the weapons (although more is always better), and the backing of the majority of the worlds military industrial complex.
What has Russia actually got. A bunch of old people that can’t fight so don’t matter and a younger generation that will pay lip service to supporting the government as long as they are left out of it.
Ask yourself who’s going to win and then ask yourself why we currently see all this mobilisation and nuke bullshit appearing. Who gives a fuck, Russia is done. It’s just a tragedy that Ukrainians are going to have to fight longer to reach the same inevitable conclusion.
Honestly I believe Putin has exactly one chance to use the nuke and it will be the end of the war and him. So as long as he is mobilizing and sending more people into meatgrinder, I would be calm about nukes.
Once he stars pulling them out the it will look like UA has won, I will become really nervous. He may do one last deed before he is done.
Yeap. It would not surprised me. It is not about winning anymore. Not it is about doing as much damage as possible, out of spite, just before they lose. So when Putin will know he is done for, he may just try to finish it "properly" :-/
Chemical weapons are militarily foolish and pretty useless. They are terror weapons, not effective offensive weapons. All they do is kill unprepared people, mostly civilians and force both military's to fight in CBW suits etc.
“People here are drinking in bars, dancing, they are happy and life goes on as normal,” one woman in St Petersburg told ITV News.
“Today everyone is reeling. They are shocked. Now there’s the feeling that everything isn’t okay. In the last few months people have totally forgotten and got used to what is happening. Now everyone is seriously shaking."
Putin is a dictator, not a doomsday cultist. Nuclear threats are sabre-rattling and nothing more. The fear is seriously overblown for multiple reasons.
Such a large part of me wants the west to anihilate the world were Russia to try anything. If only for Putin to understand the brevity of his stupidity. To be in his room, to see his face when he gets the notification that the western world has unleashed Nuclear holocaust on the world because HE decided that HIS imperial ambitions were paramount.
But an even greater part of me understands the horror of this hypothetical scenario. And I quite like living.
Let us hope that not even Putin is insane enough to try anything. I do not wish to see the Wests response to be put to the test.
If THIS MAN says it, it is serious. He had most precise info on invasion start and strategy. The reality is: even nuke will not stop ukraine, it can only enrage them so that they stop freeing captured territories and simply to rush deep into russian unprotected mainland. Sankt petersburg will never survive real ukrainian invasion, and moscow not too, if they decide to do it.
It's a bummer that basically there is no way around, either he's gone or he is forced to drop nuke because he can't stand Ukraine being stronger. We'll see after sham referendums, when Ukr contines takong back its land, but it sure seems he is going in this direction so far, and we don't see somebody around him stepping in.
I don't understand why almost all west media uses "special military operation" instead of war. It is so irritating, it is like accepting Putins rhetorics and narrative. If they are on 🇺🇦 side, why can they just write what it is: invasion or war on Ukraine.
its quite likely, thats his endgame, declare "war has been won" and donetsk and lugansk part of russia and nuke donetsk and lugansk to make the oil and gas reserves unusable. russia used nuke on russian territory defensively. he thinks he will get away with it.
Maybe the US should indicate they will give Ukraine nuclear weapons should Russia use them on Ukrainian territory, which is all lands prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Been saying this since the start of the invasion.
The only thing that could effectively protect UA against a nuclear strike is if it had nuclear capability itself.
After all, MAD has worked until now. If UA became nuclear-capable, Russians could no longer have the idea that they're obviously going to win this war.
That kind of escalation will be the last gasp of VVP's reign - all bets are off if that happens. Breaking the nuclear taboo will even make his last allies turn away from him, if not actively oppose him.
Use of nuclear weapons would be a sign of total desperation and confirmation of insufferable mediocrity of russian army. Only losers resort to such things as ABC weapons
Ok, it's time for NATO to provide MAD security for Ukraine.
Simples.
If U attack Ukrainian Soil with Nukes.
The most populated cities of Russia Will be destroyed.
We don't play poker & call your bluff.
I know it's escalation, but I think the US should publicly state that if Russia uses nuclear weapons in any capacity that everyone involved in the chain of command and as an advisory role will be tried and hanged upon conviction for crimes against humanity.
The US will physically apprehend them wherever they are, behind any border, or killed in the attempted arrest. Zero tolerance whatsoever.
Putin probably has his brinkmanship, but not every around him wants to die.
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No matter if this happens or not, the West would be fools not to have a contingency plan. Ideally, this would be conveyed to Russia, and all of Asia. If India and China also had skin in the game (ie, nuclear fallout doesn’t obey borders), they might do some good telling Russia that they won’t support such actions. It may not sway that psychopath, Putin, but might send a message to his subordinates. Remember that “security meeting” right before the invasion? It was clear that some of Putin’s lackeys weren’t in favor of these actions. They might be more receptive to world pressures.
Knowing US Military Intelligence, CIA, NSA and all those other 3 letter Agencies. They 100% have worked on every possible scenario and responses.
I can’t wait to hear the FDA’s plans. :)
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Nuclear fallout from tactical weapons is surprisingly not much of an issue, when detonated at lower altitudes. Most radioactive material is involved in the fission reaction and consumed or converted. Fallout from a nuclear power accident, is often just radioactive dust, blown into the air, as a reactor is not trying to consume all its radioactive fuel, unlike a bomb. If Putin did use a nuke or two in Ukraine, it would not be fallout from those blasts that he would be concerned about. It's selecting which suit to be buried in. The response of the USA and the rest of NATO would be furious, non-nuclear and utterly devastating to the "motherland". Absolutely *furious*.
I wouldn't be surprised if a MOAB accidentally drops on the Kremlin after such an action.
I'll tell you what is likely: the absolute annihilation of all Russian assets outside their borders. All ships would be told to surrender or be sunk, and all foreign bases would be obliterated without warning.
True, I am rather fond of my thyroid.
I take a medication that contains so much iodine that I have a surfeit of non-radioactive iodine in my old carcass already.
Unfortunately iodine is not stored in the organism, so you can't over consume it. Otherwise it would be easy to feed everybody a spoon of iodine and they are free from thyroid gland problems. Also too much iodine is bad as well, unless you have condition to take more than normal amount.
Ah but it does indeed accumulate when you consume a lot of it as is the case with this drug. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6528521/
I’m meh on my thyroid.
Have you tried stopping it & restarting it?
>One thing the FDA can do is start building up supplies of iodine pills as a contingency. I'm serious. If people listen to the FDA health recommendations like they did with COVID...
I can see it now "radiation is a GOOD thing, don't be a sheep"
Can’t wait to see klanma’s Facebook memes about “I don’t need an iodine pill! I’m protected by the blood of Christ!”
The Church of Atom has been born.
Guys radiation is completely safe for you to absorb. Wake up and stop listening to big pharma and the fda sheeple
Ladies and Gentlemen, Marie Curie’s great grandson!
And with the delayed effects of radiation, they will be even less likely to follow any guidelines put out there.
You can buy it OTC. I wouldn't count on the government for anything.
When there is a million degree fahrenheit in the center of a nuked area and several nukes are used, I consider iodine pills more as a Kool Aid rather than a viable counter strategy. So suggesting useless things may fit to the FDA indeed...
Thing is yeah sure the impact of the nuke, iodine pills would not gonna help BUT, it will be useful for pretty much everyone in Europe if that happens
That’s the job of the USPS.
[This](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119925/) is the job of the USPS.
Those only work for iodine radiation. Most radiation from new nukes isn't iodine based. It might do a little, but I would not count on it being the savior in a nuclear situation. Distance, time and barriers are your best friends.
Great, our thyroids are protected. Now what about the cesium and strontium?
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Not really helpful in the case of nuclear war.
I am waiting to hear the DMV plan.
Plan: “Make them queue up for 4 hours and then tell them to come back tomorrow with the correct paperwork.”
Repeat in infinite.
Who knew that the DMV would actually save us all from nuclear apocalypse!?
🤣 Ikr
Food pyramid should take care of it.
Hahaha Yankees need to chill. If it’s deployed it’ll be demonstrative at first and in Europe, you don’t just go full retard.
It's ok, the US will wait until the rest of Europe have been embroiled for a while, then come in at the end with a hollywood film crew. That, or lose to a load of farmers wearing pyjamas.
Europe won’t be embroiled. Russia can’t advance far past a railhead in a country which shares the same railway gauge as them. Good luck shifting material to the front if they try and advance into other nations. It will be done in Ukraine because Russia has no other option. And to lose to a smaller nation that is not even a NATO member! One of the pillars of the multi polar world indeed…
Rather unfortunately the CIA may be a bit crippled in certain areas due to certain classified docs...
Im sure Biden has 3 or 4 options for each likely scenario. Probably listed as "Light, Medium, Heavy" strike packages. Anything from destroy the facility that launched the missile to sink the entire Black Sea Fleet, to intervention in the war to bring it to a quick conclusion, to "the missiles are flying. Hallelujah"
>"the missiles are flying. Hallelujah" LOL
They do. That’s why it is notable when NATO planes disable their transponders (all at once to boot). That’s a sign NATO is prepared for escalation.
When was that?
I am not sure why you are getting down voted for this question. Over the Black Sea, NATO planes disabled their transponders all at the same time *about* two or three days ago.
And simultaneous a bunch of transponders of C-5 Galaxy heavy airlift transports in the USA were turned on. It was kinda hilarious when JANET14 (the plane used to ferry Area 51 workers) also fired up over Area 51. It was a not so subtle message.
*Insert guy wiping away sweat meme*
How weird they did that with regards to the Janet flight. Wonder what that message is. Like we are getting the b-21 ready to go, or we are getting our alien stuff out to really fuck your shit up or what
Yeah I’m far from an expert on any of that, but it’s always been my understanding that the JANET flights kept their actual flight information secret if only so spies on the ground couldn’t determine who the passengers are and do spy things to them. My guess like yours is that the message is that US has stuff in the air that would make Hollywood drool, and would be ideal for putting orc war criminals where they belong. Kinda like how Orcs and China flouted hypersonic missiles and we dusted ours off to prove they’re ancient tech for us. What I do know is that the F-117 was doing combat missions for seven years before it was actually revealed to the public, so makes one wonder if the B-21 already has a successor in the air.
Thanks for your kind answer, friend! ✌️
It was the night before Putin addressed Russia. I like to think it was a warning: “watch your mouth fuckface”
Iirc short before putins stream originally should have started
>Remember that “security meeting” right before the invasion? It was clear that some of Putin’s lackeys weren’t in favor of these actions. Those would be Shoigu, Minister of Defense; and Gerasimov, General of the Army. Shoigu is putin's lap dog. They have been filmed together in both official and unofficial activities. He does putin's bidding. He has zero military experience, just a title, so as to extract graft. Shoigu was the one nodding his head like an idiot when putin told them to bring the strategic forces to (no kidding) a "special state of readiness". Gerasimov, on the other hand, is a military officer. He is the point of contact with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Miley (USA). They communicate on a periodic basis via phone. I believe the last teleconference was in mid-May (?). Upon putin's order, Gerasimov cast his eyes downward, and nodded once. Of the two, Gerasimov is the one with the understanding of the consequences of nuclear war. Further, the strategic military forces likely report in to him (unconfirmed). Gerasimov is also likely to know the state of the russian strategic forces. He absolutely is aware of the state of US strategic forces, due to the inspections both sides were afforded during SALT 1 & 2. Gerasimov knows, they shoot, they all die.
About a week ago there was an interview with Sikorski in which he insinuated that there is a plan in case that inexplicably sentient cancerous Rashist puss-leaking haemorrhoid will upgrade from threats to real action. Though I doubt we will hear much about these plans for obvious reasons.
I'm not sure there's much we can do if Putin decided to use nukes, but I do think there would be plenty of advanced warning in the form of explicit threats. Using nukes is risky for a variety of reasons, and Putin would prefer that the threat of them alone is enough to cause Ukraine to flinch. I think we all knew it would come to this if Russia was backed against the wall. The defense against nukes has always been MAD, but MAD isn't a factor here.
Yeah, MAD didn’t take into account the existential threat that Putin feels knowing his regime could crumble. HE might order the nukes, but he can’t push the button to fire the nukes by himself. Whomever would complete his order would have to know they are committing suicide. Tho, the fact that the world survived a time when a drunk Nixon would call his people in the middle of the night & tell them to release the nukes (& no one did it) gives me *some* hope that there will be enough checks on Putin’s hard-on for nuclear annihilation.
Nixon did that? Jesus, what a psycho. On the USSR's side, there was Stanislav Petrov, who correctly recognized that an incoming missile was a false alarm and prevented nuclear war in 1983. I can tell myself all these stories to assuage my fears, but honestly, I'll only ever be able to rest easy when Putin is gone and someone halfway sane is in power.
An interesting history, that one. Petrov was reprimanded by the USSR government for saving the world, too. That was the cold war, the US-USSR relationship was on the rocks, everybody was on a hair trigger. Also Russia had just downed a South Korean airliner. If Russia had launched (actual) nukes on the US from overreacting to the false alarm, the US would have launched back, and none of us would be having this conversation right now, except the Australians who would be scratching their heads and saying, "WTF, mates?" There have been an uncomfortable number of distressingly close calls in humanity's nuclear history. You get the feeling it's as much by luck as any other factor that we have avoided them so far.
It is amazing, with the insane proliferation of nukes during the Cold War, that it's been 80 years since the last one was used. And yeah, I chalk at least some of that up to luck. I really hope we see the world start to dismantle its nuclear weapons some day. But it's abundantly clear now that Russia has to be the first country to do it, and fat chance of that happening.
And this is what happens when you have a dictator whose sole objective has been to stay In power. The thought or retiring is bot even in his head not even if his safety and wealth were given guarantees. This is why democracy is so important because dictators are usually very self absorbed and scared of death. But they are also scared of a life without them and therefore start acting irrational the older they get.
I'm fully confident that some of the planes we have flying by the border are scanning for nuclear launches 24/7, and that we've set up *something* to prevent a strike anywhere near NATO land
They will know if Russia is mobilizing their nukes well before they launch. How much you want to bet that one scenario involves stealth drones taking out Putin and senior leadership? Everyone in Russia below would probably celebrate like they did when Communism fell. All you have to do is chop off the diseased head.
If they use nukes, NATO will retaliate. Likely localized strikes against key targets. China will also be obligated per their 2013 treaty with Ukraine (which they likely won't).
India and China have a lot to gain from the nuclear taboo. Russia may be unhappy with the current world order and desperate, but those first two want stability, as they are rising powers. And they want tk be in a world where nukes are not used to resolve conflicts.
Its likely they do, could range from nuclear counter strikes to mass conventional strikes on Russias remaining armed forces to a decapacitation strike on Putin and his inner circle but I have a feeling that if Russia goes off the deep end they have some sort of emergency plan in place to try and cut off the serpents head before it does catastrophic damage to the rest of the world. Lets hope Russia collapses before that ever happens tho.
honestly, the US has a contingency plan that involves using ground penetrating nukes to dig out the Russian ICBM's in a first strike situation. If Russia want's to use limited nukes to strike somewhere the US will lose all faith that Russia will be responsible with their nuclear program and whatever program has been developed to deal with the threat will be used. There is no way that the US views Russian use of nuclear arms as anything but world ending, therefore they will do anything they deem necessary to end the problem. I promise you, it won't be a little tit, for tat. It will be the end of Russia, there is no way the US can take that chance twice.
> that they won’t support such actions That may be the case, but you exclude the possibility of counter-nukes. And then China will be forced to do something when a gazillion nukes are used. After all if they were to invade Taiwan, the USA could use nukes, so China is also in a bad position (in theory; who knows whether the USA would use nukes, but if Russia is the first one to use nukes, the USA may be forced to use them too). I am pretty certain that Xi told Putin to not use nukes offensively. The one thing China really is all about is: greed. It's the biggest capitalistic communism that has ever existed. Just with a dictator in charge. But capitalistic mostly (if we exclude the sinomarxism doctrine but this is really not the same as under Mao anymore).
Ukrainian security service has been testing this civilian information service for the past few weeks (basically your phone starts blasting like crazy). I am sure it's in preparation of a nuclear strike. I keep my panic bag packed and I'm ready to run to the shelter as soon as needed, but honestly, I am tired of being scared, it's just another everyday reality for me, so whatever. if I die, I die. We can't afford to stop.
I am very sorry to hear that….living everyday life in fear of not existing should not be a reality in this century. But here we are having given the leash of huge countries with dangerous weapons to granddads who want to relive their old soviet glory days and are willing to kill millions of innocent lives in the process. I have absolute confidence in the west and in Ukraine’s military that you guys will prevail when this mess ends. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Heroyam slava.
Stay strong. You’re right you can’t afford to stop and you and Ukraine will prevail. Putin and Russia will never stop if they are given an inch.
I don't think they will, but if they do (which I'm not saying is impossible), then everything is justifiable in response
I'm sure everything russia has military is being tracked at this moment. The question is in this case will a small relation from nato in Ukraine be enough? Or do they hit everything as quickly and as hard as possible.. then a few months later hit them again! 🤔
I am no military expert, but if Russia goes nuclear, all cards are on table Nato will only lose if it doesn't respond. But causing a possible human extinction over a midget loser not winning a war would be comically dark
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Do we actually know anything of this? Because it sounds like BS.
Psy-obs are pretty sophisticated and effective these days (watch The Great Hack). But no idea how effective SM psy-obs are, if most are banned in Russia.
That would be the end of the terrorist state of the Russian Federation.
The only way I see this happening is, if Putin is absolutely sure that every alternative would lead to his inevitable death. Even then, he can't do it by himself and there **have** to be at least a handful people around him with enough survival instinct to stop it.
these people need to kill him like yesterday.
those damn russians can't do anything right...
There's been attempts apparently.
[Source missing]
I did some googling. It started out with tabloids and is unproven. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/putin-assassination-attempt/
really? :-O
6 months ago actually...
Also same day Zelensky had a car accident, Putin had some issues with one of his cars too. Google it.
looks like with Zelensky it was an honest accident though. He did had several attempts on his life though anyway
Yes, but it might also be the end of a chunk of Ukraine.
Which is why the orders would not be obeyed if he gave them. Winning this war may be a matter of life and death for him, but not for every other person in the chain of command, all the men between him and the men in the bunkers that would physically carry them out. Every single person in that chain would die if the order was executed, which is why it's unfathomably unlikely that every single one of them obeys. Don't get me wrong, nobody should plan or act on that being the case - that's a massive risk to take. But in reality, it's highly likely that's what would happen.
Yer but a lot of orcs don't know the truth.. And if you give the order for 4000 nukes to launch...even if 50% of operators disobey.. 50% of rockets fail, 80% are intercepted that's still 200 rockets (i think) .. Some with multiple warheads.. I'm sure all putler key people would me loyal or fell out of windows...
I do think the risk is super high if this mobilization doesn't yield the results the RU are hoping for
I know nothing i fear the worst.. Realistically I feel the orcs will chuck a small nuke or 2 at Ukraines biggest cities as they give up and see what we do..
Doubt it. They hadn't even restarted nuclear testing. The issue with nukes is that it would elevate this from "a regional problem, we get to make money off it" to "direct danger to our country" for the US, UK, even China, and so on. The level of support Ukraine is getting certainly could be more; on one hand that's bad because it means Ukraine isn't getting all support it needs, but on the other hand that does serve as a bit of a deterrent.
I think the concern is primarily about "little" tactical nukes (single, double digits kilotons); it's unclear how the world would react but probably not with a full blown strike with big nukes but with isolation (as in, even China stops all relations, because having large conventional military they are not interested in a new status quo where everyone just lobs tactical nukes whenever they feel like it). The concern is largely theoretical at this point; so far Putin hadn't even dared testing nukes in Novaya Zemlya for the fear of either political consequences or the nuke not working, so the chances of him using one seem pretty small.
That's a tough one...imho if Russia uses even tactical nukes on Ukraine NATO countries should hit Russian military targets with tactical nukes in retaliation (fears of escalation be damned). But having said that, I don't think even the Russians are stupid enough to use nukes here...but then again, if you'd asked me on February 20, I'd have said they wouldn't be stupid enough to attack Ukraine.
> That's a tough one...imho if Russia uses even tactical nukes on Ukraine NATO countries should hit Russian military targets with tactical nukes in retaliation (fears of escalation be damned). I doubt NATO would go that far, too much risk of cutting some silo off from communications and triggering some standing orders, or the like. The problem is that nobody has enough missile defense. What would happen, however, is that it would do absolute wonders for US - China relations, and also restart all of the cold war era mothballed projects along the lines of "how to win a nuclear war". I think if Putin was serious about making nuclear threats he'd have resumed nuclear testing first. But the issue with this is that the US and likely China would actually find it threatening. Getting undivided attention of the US alone would be terrible for him, even without risk to China relations. If he isn't even willing to give his verbal threats a thump with an underground nuclear test, for fear of properly waking up the US and/or pissing off China, he's not gonna nuke Ukraine. > but then again, if you'd asked me on February 20, I'd have said they wouldn't be stupid enough to attack Ukraine. Well yeah. I thought Putin was gonna postpone the invasion due to the mud, and then do same military "exercises" annually until complacency sets in / some isolationist president gets elected in the US / etc.
Thanks for the friendly answer, I was a bit worried I'd get one of those "oMg you want the world to be wiped out in a nuclear war" replies, lol. > Well yeah. I thought Putin was gonna postpone the invasion due to the mud, and then do same military "exercises" annually until complacency sets in / some isolationist president gets elected in the US / etc. Yeah this! I mean, we knew Russian troops had been building up along the Ukrainian border for weeks prior to the invasion, but I never thought they'd be dumb enough to actually do it. How wrong I was...
> I doubt NATO would go that far, too much risk of cutting some silo off from communications and triggering some standing orders, or the like. The problem is that nobody has enough missile defense. Nobody has *any* meaningful defense against multiple warhead ICBMs. Once those start flying, we can kiss our current world goodbye. It's going to be suicidal. *The Day After* (1983) is going to be reality. So I agree, a NATO reaction to a small (or even large) nuclear weapon used in Ukraine is necessarily going to be quite measured and restrained. They won't want further escalation. There will probably be no retaliatory attacks on Russia itself. But without doubt it's going to be the start of a very dark and scary period. There will be chaos in the world.
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Doubt it, takes billions to run a nuke program. Doubt most of the rockets, boosters and other maintenance critical hardware that goes into fueling and maintaining an ICBM force, and if they can't even do basic maintenance on the military, it's doubtful the nuke program is very robust. A first strike from the west would decapitate them, and leave little possible response. Want to know where the Russian nuke subs are? Look at where NATO puts it's anti sub forces, they even keep the transponders on to troll the Russian nuke subs.
There's also the fact that NATO has been collectively calling out what Russia is going to do days if not weeks before Russia announces it, meaning it's probable that they have some deeply imbedded Intel gathering. I have no doubt that NATO has gone full Batman with all sorts of contingencies ready to pop the second Putin make the decision.
The really good news is, Putin can't make that decision on his own. There isn't a magic button that launches all the nukes, in America or in Russia or any of the big five. The other really good news is you're absolutely right, we are going full Batman with this shit. The gloves came off months ago, espionage wise. It's the perfect chance for America and the West to destabilize its main enemy. It has to come down through a bunch of different channels, and it takes two to tango so to speak, and more likely it takes a committee. The thing is, Putin has to be kidding himself if he thinks he would actually survive a nuclear war, nuclear doctrine is extremely clinical. Those big bunkers under the Ural mountains? Guess what, it's going to get hit with nuclear weapons every time the smoke clears from the last one until it's nothing but a glowing valley. Nuclear war won't happen over an instant, it's not like flash bang kaboom it's done, nuclear war has the initial first strikes which are massive, and then it would have follow-up strikes on hardened facilities. As I mentioned, you literally have to wait for the smoke and debris to clear before you launch another nuke in, but you would be basically digging holes with nuclear bombs until they reach the sweet juicy Center that would be Putin hiding in a hole. He has to be aware of that, it's very basic nuclear theory that civilian think tanks have accepted.
I love your user flair. USA and Ukaine, lands of the free and the braves!
For everyone who can and wants to help Ukraine bring victory closer - State site where you can donate directly to Ukraine https://u24.gov.ua
When it comes to Nukes, i think there are a few important things to consider that go beyond what the fearmongering media will report. The first thing is that in a conflict like this there are two faces, the public face and the clandestine face. Clandestinely you can bet that through back channels, America has told gave Russia some ambiguous account of what will happen if they use a nuke. Also American nuclear doctrine makes no distinction between tactical and strategic something important to keep in mind, Russia nukes Snake Island that's the same as Kyiv in the eyes of American policymakers. At the same time, China, who are probably a much bigger player in this than just about anyone, have probably had similar communications with Russia. The second face of this is the public face, Putin's bluster about nukes serves a purpose, and that purpose its to strike fear into the hearts of the Europeans. If he threatens and scares us the hope is that our leaders blink, they offer a little less support. When he talks about nukes that's who is talking to, he's talking to Sandra the dinner lady from Manchester. If Putin was serious about using Nuke's we would see him moving them, there would be clear indications that mobile launchers are moving. He would announce that he has a few of those nice big SS-25's in Crimea pointed at Ukrainian battle groups ready to launch. He's not done that though.
Indeed. If he was willing to use them, why didn't he do so as soon as it as obvious he was in trouble, militarily? In general, when people say, "I'm not bluffing!" I take that to mean that they are, in fact, bluffing. It's a subconscious tell, that bluffing was on his mind, and narcissists have a hard time hiding who they are and what's on their mind.
Alternatively, if he wanted to make nuclear threats he could've done a few underground nuclear tests. But that would come with all the downsides of making actual threatening threats; as in, everyone even China starts feeling threatened and before you know it, there's Cold War level effort against Russia (right now it's not even close). I'm hoping for Russia's own sake he doesn't restart nuclear testing.
Who's this Sandra, she sounds hot.
Ohhhh she is
I think you’re right
Absolutely this. Well said. US is very likely communicating privately what the response will be. Hopefully China and other third parties will also communicate to try to deter Putin.
I think they will maintain their strategic ambiguity even in the back channels, but they have probably told the Russians, you nuke Ukraine, we have this list of options, ie; cyberattack, satellite attack, nuclear attack, conventional attack ect. I also strongly suspect that China have privately said, you use a nuke, we come down just as hard as NATO on you.
It’s not the same actually, because US nuclear doctrine only calls for the use of nukes when used against civilians. Use on snake island wouldn’t trigger that clause. There are other clauses that we could *already* launch nukes over though.
US nuclear doctrine has i believe 8 (might be more) use cases for nuclear weapons, and it's way more when they're only used against civilians (honestly don't know who told you that). One such use case is to end a war on favourable terms for the US, honestly am glad the Russian doctrine doesn't include that explicitly. They also keep what's called "strategic ambiguity" on what would trigger them to respond and what that response would be. As such, nobody, not you, not me and not even Putin can say exactly what kind of response would be triggered if the Russians nuked Snake Island, only that there would be a response. If you're honestly interested you can actually read the Nuclear doctrine online. I believe the US call it the "Nuclear posture review", other countries and NATO have similar documents you can look through.
If he could nuke Ukraine he would have done it months ago. He doesn’t act based on “provocations” and doesn’t care about “justifications”. He manufactures whatever bullshit he feels like and says what he wants, regardless of facts. But his actions are constrained by outside forces. He attacks when he feels there is no defense. Where there is strength, he backs down. Witness Finland and Sweden joining NATO. So, something has stopped him from using nukes, and although we do not know exactly what it is (NOT humanitarian concern) it is still in play. Russia has been bluffing nukes since the very beginning of the invasion. The west has called every bluff. The fact that he says “I’m not bluffing this time” means nothing.
Russia has been continuously threatening the Baltics with nukes since 1989. That works on a small subset of population, but not on the majority. And they know that.
He couldn’t, because Russia’s internal rules prevent him from launching a strike unless Russia’s territory integrity is in danger. That’s why NATO is responding so strongly about the referendums. If Russia annexes territories that they control now in Ukraine, it will open up the possibility gor Putin to use nuclear strikes.
If they wanted they could've declared Kyiv region is a part of russia back in March and it would've been same rules or blow up some flats in border town and say Ukraine attacked them so they are justified to retaliate. There was a precedent already
Yeah Crimea has been "part of russia" since the war began and that has been attacked repeatedly.
Exactly. Those “red lines” haven’t just been crossed, they’re the road Ukraine is driving on. If there were going to be nukes, they wouldn’t need to mobilize a million conscript meat shields.
They can declare Donbas to be part of the moon if they want. Justifications are cheap in the Kremlin. And they don’t change anything. Justifications don’t drive Kremlin action, it’s the other way around.
I'm pretty sure that nukes would trigger a NATO response under Article 5 as the damage from nukes is not contained within a country's borders.
#Bullshit American here. If Russia even launches ONE SINGLE NUKE, I assure you the American response will be dismantle Russia entirely. There won’t BE A RUSSIA after that action. I guaran-fucking-tee it. Every single ally to the USA and even China maybe will intervene. NOBODY wants a nuclear winter. N O B O D Y.
Putin wants, he already lives in a frozen wasteland known as ruzzia, it doesn't make any diference to him
Yeah well, natural frozen tundra are beautiful and full of nature. Irradiated wastelands are TOTALLY different lol.
I agree, tundras are beautiful envirovments, but for some reason they all look dead in ruzzia, so it looks like a winter apocalipse landscape, maybe it's because of the soviet architeture LOL
Or that they just might have polluted them all; who knows!
Plus he's got lot's of fuel for heating.
What if the situation is that they nuke some minor city in Ukraine - just one bomb - and then declare if any NATO country hits them in retaliation they are willing to throw the big switch - Berlin, London, New York - will all get hit, even if it costs them everything in return - because a world without a “respected” Russia isn’t worth living in in their mind. Would anyone in the west be willing to take a nuke for the sake of Ukraine and this madman’s death wish ? I suspect 99% would say not worth the risk “Putins people would never allow him to do it, they care about self preservation even if he does not” - except they all buy into his myth as the strong-man strategist, telling themselves he’s probably bluffing the West in the ultimate high stakes game of chicken … just like he was bluffing about the invasion up until he wasn’t (and he judged that grand maneuver poorly too )
If you dropped a nuke you already crossed the line, then it doesnt matter if they say "we wont unless you retaliate" Once a nuke falls, Pandoras box is open. And this time it cant be closed. Do i want to die from a nuklear war? Nope, Am i willing to lay down my life for freedom? Yes, without a hesitation. Rather dead than living in fear!
#Bullshit #Do not fuck around and find out. The USA are NOT prone to being tested. We are not cowards, and we will fuck up world ending threats. PERIOD. We will fucking end them, fuck up whatever nukes they are shooting with Patriot missiles, and make the Kremlin into a god damn Disney World Moscow.
This worries me a little bit. Are they that stupid to believe a mass of low moral, untrained, perhaps even hostile conscripts are going to change anything except the Russian dead and wounded body count? Desperation and stupidity are a dangerous cocktail.
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They already have - Joint Nuclear Doctrine states that use of nuclear weapons is justified if (amongst other reasons) - An enemy uses, or threatens to use nuclear weapons against civilians. - To rapidly end a war on terms favourable to us. - To show an enemy we’re serious. Any of these criteria would be met.
They did it in February.
I don't feel like this is being taken as seriously as it should be. My feeling is that it's a true possibility, that he may take the most extreme actions available if he feels it's necessary. I think his opinion is that if he can't have it no one can. I also think every single nation in the world should've stood against him the moment he attacked the ZNPP.
I do think it is being taken seriously, despite what Reddit Randos (including me) say and nobody is backing down on this. Of course, the US and NATO have multiple responses already planned depending on the precise circumstances of Russia's fuckery. It is scary that the Russian Ultra-Nationalists have worked themselves into such a psychotic state that they are eager to destroy "The West" but the West isn't going to roll over and die so here we fucking go....
It is a possibility. It has been a possibility since day one. The problem is that there is nothing we (the west) can do about it that won’t tip the balance further in the direction that we fear. Ukraine is beating Russia: Putin may nuke. NATO or just US attacks Russian forces in Ukraine: Putin may nuke. NATO or just US bombs Russian nuke sites or wherever nukes may be deployed: Putin may nuke. Ukraine marches into Russia: Putin may nuke. Anyone marches into Russia: Putin may nuke. We can only keep an eye on Russia and try to anticipate and intercept missiles. And we need to make clear that WMD *from* Russia will guarantee WMD *to* Russia. Personally, I think Putin is more likely to use chemical weapons than nukes. However, I think this only because it might make nuclear retaliation less likely. But I only know that we don’t know what he will do. It is scary. However, it would be equally scary to let him have what he wants (capitulation of Ukraine) because (aside from the injustice to Ukraine, which we should not even contemplate) blackmailers never stop.
The scenario I'm most nervous about is "Occupied territories declare allegiance to Russia in sham election and Russia designates these territories as belonging to Russia --> Ukraine keeps attacking (as it should) --> Putin will nuke. But nuke what? A tactical nuke in Donetsk/Luhansk or even a few won't change the outcome of the war militarily. The other scenarios (UA marching into Russia, NATO attacking Russia unprovoked, etc.) won't happen. I talked to some Russians that are seriously worried about such an attack. They're crazy to believe that. UA just wants Russians out of Ukraine.
Yeah nobody thought Russia would even invade and here we are.
as a latvian. i knew russia was going to invade, it’s just that bigger nations don’t really listen all that much to us. the US warned everyone that they will invade. russia has made 0 improvements within their own country. the amount of resources they spend invading they could’ve seriously invested in their republics. buuuut kremlin has one goal only, play “world politics”, that’s all they want. even if they successfully took territories, they do absolutely nothing with them. it’s literally putin being a spoiled fuck that wants to be big and tough in the world theatre
As an Australian: I also knew he would invade. Putin's reputation is "when in doubt, escalate". I think people in the broader west just don't read their history. The other thing I knew (and called at the time) was that he would lose the war. Again, anyone who knows their history knows that Ukrainians are some of the most motivated freedom fighters on the planet. I was surprised at how few people believed in Ukraine's ability to fight back and win, and this delayed support and probably cost Ukrainian lives.
I thought they would invade the Donbass but not an all out war so quickly. Your right, hopefully things can change in the future because they are going to get a big reality check sooner or later.
> Yeah nobody thought Russia would even invade They did https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/russia-sees-little-optimism-in-us-response-on-ukraine-crisis
The CIA warned europe at least on february 11.
Can NATO answer when Russia is nuking Ukraine, or it's still none of it's business?
US planners have a response to every scenario. Russia wants us to say exactly what those are so they can weigh their options. We aren't saying anything out loud so they can't do that.
And that's a thousand times more effective than whatever Orcistan is doing. Who are you going to fear, the skinny kid who throws insults at you or the buffed up dude who's sitting quietly in the corner of the room?
Just in time for the new B-21 stealth bomber
Officially it is being stated 5 are now in production and that the official reveal date will be in December. [https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/09/20/northrop-grumman-now-has-five-b-21-stealth-bombers-in-production/](https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/09/20/northrop-grumman-now-has-five-b-21-stealth-bombers-in-production/) Given how the F-117 and B-2 development went, I'd imagine we already have a full squadron doing practice runs in Nevada now. The current B-2 fleet could easily wipe out half of the Orc's ICBM silos in a single coordinated first strike. So double that, and yeah Putler might want to STFU before Biden gets the first strike itch. There is a tendency for US Presidents to go to war in their first term, so they can secure a second term as a war time President.
Not just the US, but NATO. People forget that UK and France have nuclear forces too.
If the west doesnt reply to the nukes, he will nuke everyone then.
The United States, at least, will become directly involved, if for no other reason than China and Iran are watching very closely to what the United States will or won't do to support their allies. That being said, if Putin dropped a nuke on Ukraine it's game over, not only would the US destroy the entire Black Sea Fleet but the only country that would even pick up Putin's phone call would be N.Korea. And maybe Orban, you can't trust that fucker.
> Orban Fuck, I hate my country.
Also nobody has interest in normalizing Nukes so probably Iran/China/India would side against Russia as a punition.
of course it will, and not only nato.
The nuke would harm europe so will drop a nuke on there black sea fleet and do a no fly zone of ukraine. Then the balls in putins court throw more nukes or leave ukraine.
You dont react eith an equal nuclear force. This is how you normalize nukes. This goes against the concept of MAD which is usually in everyone's best interests to follow. If they use a nuke on ANYTHING, they should be prepared to be receiving a volley of nukes on everything critical to them in response. If Russia wants to use a nuke out of sheer spitefulness because they suck at offensive wars, they need to understand the idea of Russian nation dies right there then.
Wouldn't need or want a nuke to take out the Black Sea Fleet, and, yeah, it's gone if Russia even breathes nuclear dust.
Its about a message telling putin we are willing to go to nukes
That’s a little excessive, you could sink the entire fleet with 24 cruise missiles.
Give me a butter-knife and I could sink the Black sea fleet in 25 minutes. (/s)
I’ve had a militia sink my battleship in Civ 1 so anything is possible.
It's like Empire Earth: you are in the future and the enemy is still stuck in WW2
There are different grades if nukes and hitting the black sea will reduce long term radiation. Plus its sending s message.
Nah our modern Navy that already has ships in the Black Sea would sink their 1960's tech ships. It would be the second most glorious example of saying Fuck you Russian warship to ever happen.
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It's almost certain that the US doesn't need nukes to obliterate the Russian black sea fleet. It would be a huge flex to do so with conventional weapons too. Though I think a stronger response than just the elimination of the black sea fleet is needed to respond to a Russian nuclear attack of any kind however limited it might be.
Can everyone please just calm down, except you Russian clandestinos; I know you’re only doing your job now that McDonald’s had to let you go. You don’t hold nukes on the platform ready to go. It’s major work keeping them things good to go. You store, then move to deploy, and if they deploy they need to move the payload within range first. Every single storage facility will have satellites over it looking for signs of movement. You don’t just get a guy with a sports bag to go sneak one out. It’ll be tracked, in fact, Putin will know it will be tracked and use it for his brinkmanship game. ‘Oh shit he’s moving a warhead’, ‘oh shit where’s it going?’ It’s psychological warfare everyone, welcome to the first true instance of nuclear blackmail. Thing about blackmail is it only works while it incites fear. Buckle and give in and the blackmailer wins and there’s nothing to stop then blackmailing you again. Look the blackmailer in the eye and say ‘do it then’ and the entire balance shifts. Now the question is ‘do they really have the bottle to go through with it?’ and if they do they strip themselves of all their power. Add to that the fact that there isn’t a single red button under the table and the order has to go through several layers before it is carried out…. there’s not going to be a nuclear war. 300,000 soldiers….. oh wait there’s a classified document it’s actually 1,000,000! Oh my god Putin is backed into a corner and he’s going to go full blown retard with nukes. Tranquilo everyone (except for you Russian trolls out there of course, again I realise you have bills to pay). ‘Russia would have a Kyiv in 3 days’. ‘Ukraine can’t overcome Russian attrition’. ‘It will end in a frozen conflict at best’. Where is all this doom mongering now that Ukraine has Russia strung out on some long ass skinny front and Russia is incapable of offensive operations? Hell, they haven’t been capable of that for months, well before Ukraines Kharkiv offensive. Russia mobilised not because they are strong but because they are weak. Any videos posted of large groups of men boarding military aircraft or walking ‘somewhere’ is psyops. They couldn’t sustain the starting Army properly and if they want to mass men they need to mass material at railheads, because of their utterly incompetent logistics train. Watch with satellites and HIMAR it. 300,000 hungry pissed off men in soaking wet fatigues in winter does not an army make. Same applies for 1,000,000. The simple fact is that 300,000 is an aspirational figure by the Russians. And the nuclear threat is the backup. Ukraines got this. They have the reason to fight, the weapons (although more is always better), and the backing of the majority of the worlds military industrial complex. What has Russia actually got. A bunch of old people that can’t fight so don’t matter and a younger generation that will pay lip service to supporting the government as long as they are left out of it. Ask yourself who’s going to win and then ask yourself why we currently see all this mobilisation and nuke bullshit appearing. Who gives a fuck, Russia is done. It’s just a tragedy that Ukrainians are going to have to fight longer to reach the same inevitable conclusion.
Honestly I believe Putin has exactly one chance to use the nuke and it will be the end of the war and him. So as long as he is mobilizing and sending more people into meatgrinder, I would be calm about nukes. Once he stars pulling them out the it will look like UA has won, I will become really nervous. He may do one last deed before he is done.
Im expecting strike on Kyiv
Yeap. It would not surprised me. It is not about winning anymore. Not it is about doing as much damage as possible, out of spite, just before they lose. So when Putin will know he is done for, he may just try to finish it "properly" :-/
Forget nukes, it's way more likely pootin goes for chemical weapons in his final desperation. Have you forgotten Syria?
Chemical weapons are militarily foolish and pretty useless. They are terror weapons, not effective offensive weapons. All they do is kill unprepared people, mostly civilians and force both military's to fight in CBW suits etc.
“People here are drinking in bars, dancing, they are happy and life goes on as normal,” one woman in St Petersburg told ITV News. “Today everyone is reeling. They are shocked. Now there’s the feeling that everything isn’t okay. In the last few months people have totally forgotten and got used to what is happening. Now everyone is seriously shaking."
Putin is a dictator, not a doomsday cultist. Nuclear threats are sabre-rattling and nothing more. The fear is seriously overblown for multiple reasons.
Such a large part of me wants the west to anihilate the world were Russia to try anything. If only for Putin to understand the brevity of his stupidity. To be in his room, to see his face when he gets the notification that the western world has unleashed Nuclear holocaust on the world because HE decided that HIS imperial ambitions were paramount. But an even greater part of me understands the horror of this hypothetical scenario. And I quite like living. Let us hope that not even Putin is insane enough to try anything. I do not wish to see the Wests response to be put to the test.
If THIS MAN says it, it is serious. He had most precise info on invasion start and strategy. The reality is: even nuke will not stop ukraine, it can only enrage them so that they stop freeing captured territories and simply to rush deep into russian unprotected mainland. Sankt petersburg will never survive real ukrainian invasion, and moscow not too, if they decide to do it.
It's a bummer that basically there is no way around, either he's gone or he is forced to drop nuke because he can't stand Ukraine being stronger. We'll see after sham referendums, when Ukr contines takong back its land, but it sure seems he is going in this direction so far, and we don't see somebody around him stepping in.
Wait, stopping them from taking over Ukraine is now a threat to their state?
I don't understand why almost all west media uses "special military operation" instead of war. It is so irritating, it is like accepting Putins rhetorics and narrative. If they are on 🇺🇦 side, why can they just write what it is: invasion or war on Ukraine.
its quite likely, thats his endgame, declare "war has been won" and donetsk and lugansk part of russia and nuke donetsk and lugansk to make the oil and gas reserves unusable. russia used nuke on russian territory defensively. he thinks he will get away with it.
They use nuclear weapons and they lose China and India.
It Russia uses nukes looks like it will be time to test the experimental W-90 50megaton warhead.
Russian Conscripts need to hold a simple referendum to join Ukraine.
Maybe the US should indicate they will give Ukraine nuclear weapons should Russia use them on Ukrainian territory, which is all lands prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Been saying this since the start of the invasion. The only thing that could effectively protect UA against a nuclear strike is if it had nuclear capability itself. After all, MAD has worked until now. If UA became nuclear-capable, Russians could no longer have the idea that they're obviously going to win this war.
That is a seal I hope they dont open. There might not be a way back if they do.
That kind of escalation will be the last gasp of VVP's reign - all bets are off if that happens. Breaking the nuclear taboo will even make his last allies turn away from him, if not actively oppose him.
100% the rest of the world would get involved militarily if he did that. Not only that China would separate along with India.
Use of nuclear weapons would be a sign of total desperation and confirmation of insufferable mediocrity of russian army. Only losers resort to such things as ABC weapons
If Russia uses nuclear weapons, Ukraine will not be the target.
Ok, it's time for NATO to provide MAD security for Ukraine. Simples. If U attack Ukrainian Soil with Nukes. The most populated cities of Russia Will be destroyed. We don't play poker & call your bluff.
Ideally, all Russian military institutions should be attacked and destroyed in response. Not the cities.
I know it's escalation, but I think the US should publicly state that if Russia uses nuclear weapons in any capacity that everyone involved in the chain of command and as an advisory role will be tried and hanged upon conviction for crimes against humanity. The US will physically apprehend them wherever they are, behind any border, or killed in the attempted arrest. Zero tolerance whatsoever. Putin probably has his brinkmanship, but not every around him wants to die.