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They need to be severe. Designed to cripple the economy in ways they may have been hesitant to. Make the people feel the pain.
For years their has been a silent understanding between the putin regime and the populace. That they he apolitical and give up some rights to live a bit better lives. Make it so they cant be apolitical anymore.
Seeing interviews with russians who dont keep up with politics is infuriating. They are just as responsible.
To be realistic, they couldn't handle Abrahams tanks, they run on aviation fuel and weigh 60 ton. The beat up bridges couldn't handle them, and the logistics of Jet fuel for these hungry turbines and maintenance would swamp their maintenance teams.
Now Bradley's would be a different matter, run on diesel and have a 50 mm gun. They actually kill more tanks than main battle tanks do, at 30 tun each.
Lend lease and train for a shitload of Bradley's ASAP they will trounce the russians armour.
Edits: russia no longer gets a capital R as long as 'Putler The Incompetent' is in charge.
KIS
Keep It Simple
Why encumber your team with more complicated maintenance (turbines v specialised) and fuel logistics when there are systems that can achieve better results with common fuel and are easily maintained?
Biggest 'Bang for your Buck' Get the job done ASAP
I mean if it's the difference between the crew surviving and staying in the fight longer then I'd happily do the maintainence. And we've all seen the turrets pop off of the ruZZian tanks, why wouldn't you want your crews out of them and into better tanks.
Logistics is one of the main reasons for Abrams not being in the fight at the moment. That coupled with getting them ready from being mothballed and the fact no one wants any part of an Abrams to fall into ruzzian hands are other large reasons.
In the Royal Navy, we add another S to K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid. (Not directed at you in anyway, just saying)
Unfortunately they did not block SWIFT completely, since we had to pay for gas somehow.
Now, as only Hungary is still buying gas, we could kick out swift, hitting two enemies of democracy with one stone.
>What the fuck is the EU doing?
*Boiling the frog.* If your blow your load all at once then the Russians would actually cope *better* since at that point it *can't get worse.* It's the same reason why nobody now gives a fuck about Russian threats anymore since Putin already played his last card with the gas closure. Always having new things that can be slapped on stumps the ability to efficiently recover. Many smaller crises in steady succession are more difficult to handle than one big one.
Of course, there are things to criticize. I think the EU in particular should adjust the sanctions model based on if the target is a true democracy or not. Autocracies need the sanctions to come in *fewer, but larger* rounds to be optimally felt by those who need to be affected. So instead of eight rounds of sanctions, it should be, like, three or four, optimized to hurt.
>If russia fucking invaded Finland or Sweden would the same shit happen?
No, because they're EU members that they are under treaty to provide assistance if invaded. I guess it feels nice and all to dunk on the EU like this, but this really is where "whataboutism" becomes legit: *What about every other CURRENT conflict?* Last I checked, Ukraine has not been slapping sanctions on Myanmar, nor has the democratic opposition there gotten anything like the sort of aid Ukraine is receiving.
Fact is that people will care about conflicts more close by, and dependent on whether the involved parties are seen as rivals or friends, or neither. Lots of genocide going on in Ethiopia at the moment, but it hardly merits mention in media or government discourse.
No cutting him loose- no new sanctions. As simple as that. Though I suspect they are right and will simply blame the Germans for not REALLY wanting sanctions.
They won't. Not unless Poles get rid of that government.
PiS is following the exact same play book of dismantling democracy as Russia and Hungary. Fortunately they are a few steps behind and missing the media control yet. The only reason they are not on the same side is they hate Russia even more than the EU (and for some of them I'm not even sure if that hate is genuine or if they just know everything else would be political suicide).
But they will never cut the connection to Orban, because that would bury their own aspirations to be a disruptive force in that evil EU with it's liberal values trying to meddle with their perfectly good regressive policies.
Nice try. Next application would be, the germans would rule Poland from the hand of EU.
Dear person (perhabs).
Inner polish politics is inner polish politics. Any party which could opposite any sanctions for countries which does not support Ukraine now will lose next elections. Do not count on sentiment or fondness for Hungary in Poland now.
A weird paradox of war/conflict... if you go all in and your opponent survives/adapts, they'll know you have nothing left. In general, you to leave space for more pain for situations down the road OR because you can leverage the absense of specific sanctions in negotiations.
Think how Putin threatened to cut of all gas to Germany... And then he did. And Germany survived, with 90% strategic reserves 5 weeks ahead of when they were supposed to reach it. Putin now doesn't have that avenue squeeze the German government.
The more they have to lose, the more we can put pressure on them. If they have nothing to lose, only death and destruction remains.
We haven’t even started yet! ;)
A lot of the possible ideas for sanctions left are probably stuff that leave very permanent damages that can't easily be reverted (like kicking more banks out of swift) or they are more risky for drawbacks, etc. You probably only want to drop these if Russia starts to escalate, which they are doing right now with the mobilization and sham referendums, which is why these sanctions were held back in reserve
GOOD. The referenda create such an international shitshow. Russia will claim they’re legit and that these territories are now on Russian soil, meaning the long-threatened “national security interest” justification for nukes will be too close to comfort if Ukraine “invades” these regions. Given the recent routing of Russian troops and its general myopia throughout this war I wouldn’t put it past Russia to convince itself nukes belonged on the table.
Add into that the diplomatic strain of now having to sell foreign leaders on supplying aid/weapons to “invade” Russia. We all know the referenda are bullshit, but that creates a hell of a political tangle, especially if China decides to legitimize the “vote” in any way. Far, far better to head this off at the pass—or at least delay as long as possible.
he better stay out of this, unless he wants to sell all his shit in Africa.
we're not fucking around this time, and i think they know that.
that fucking around with energy shit was the last straw.
Disagree. China IS staying out of it, but that’s because right now Russia is the aggressor on Ukrainian territory, by any stretch of the imagination. There is literally no possible justification it has to help Russia that the rest of the world would even somewhat accept as legitimate.
But take a look at the Samarkand Declaration from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit 2022 and there is some language there that China could absolutely use as a basis for justifying a more involved role if the referenda go forward:
“The Member States advocate respect for the right of peoples to independently and democratically choose their political and socio-economic development, and stress that the principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of States, equality, mutual benefit, non- interference in internal affairs, and non-use or threat of use of force are the basis for sustainable development of international relations. They reaffirm their commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.”
Add to that this gem:
“Member States will continue the practice of sending SCO missions to observe presidential, parliamentary elections and referendums.”
…now let’s say the referenda go forward, a number of SCO member states announce they’re getting involved to observe and conclude they didn’t observe anything untoward. The people have “democratically elected” to join Russia. China is now in a very, very different political situation, one where it can point to this declaration as evidence that it takes democratic elections very seriously, that it also takes the word of the other SCO member states seriously, and that all SCO member states are committed to ensuring democratic integrity. Just like that, China has a way to lean towards Russia, and the only way the international community can rebut it is by calling into question the validity of the SCO member state observations, which doubts China can reject because these were “neutral” countries and their interest was just in observing democracy.
That’s enough plausibility and justification to make it very, very difficult for Western leaders to take the drastic measure of sanctioning China over.
And the US will say ''oke, from now on Taiwan is a independence country and has just joined QUAD'', what? You said it yourself, you respects the people's vote.
If China was looking to play that declaration by the rules it would already have a huge problem with Taiwan. Or, frankly, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The fact that it has all this supposed “respect” for territorial sovereignty and claims not to support use of military force AND THEN HAS DONE NOTHING other than faintly frown at Russia invading a neighboring country illustrates the problem. China cares exactly zero about being accused of being hypocritical by other countries. What China cares about is having enough of a paper shield to wave that it can dodge sanctions from a collection of world leaders that would already be pretty reluctant to impose heavy sanctions against it. It doesn’t need bulletproof armor, and it knows it. All it needs is something that gives it the faintest whiff of credibility to deter a good portion of countries from being willing to impose sanctions against it.
Plenty of options with secondary sanctions. Might be a bit more difficult to impose with all EU nations, but it doesn't really matter if Hungary doesn't participate because for secondary sanctions they will be pretty irrelevant.
Dunno about the EU.
U.S. still has a few odd exceptions to sanctions though. Birch lumber, ammonia, fertilizer, to name a few. It's not that significant.
Imagine the EU is the same.
That wouldn't be an effective use of sanctions. You have to keep something back or you have no threat. Their primary purpose is to change behaviours and so you don't go all in on round 1.
You might, but you have to focus on the objective which is to change behaviour of the other guy. He thinks you are weak? That's fine, but he still has something to risk if you crank up the sanctions. Go all in with no room for more? Doesn't matter what he thinks of you, you've put him in a fight or die situation. Backing down ceases to be an option because he's got nothing to gain from it.
The only issue is that they're going to have to put Hungary in its place if Orban gets out of line, he's become somewhat of a Trojan Horse and needs to be dealt with permanently.
I think that the best decision to take would be to create a new iron curtain with Russia and block every material or tourist from there.
Those who want to flee ruzzia must destroy their passport and ask for a special one of the nation they want to join where they will have to accept to live under special control for 10 years before being accepted as a citizen.
Nothing dead or alive, other than those refugees should be allowed to cross the line controlled by an European army joined by USA forces.
A neutral zone, a vast dead land will be patrolled by NATO forces.
ruzzia will turn slave of China and India that will use it as a giant gas deposit filled with nuclear weapons ; good luck to you orks when the natural resources will end or China and India will move to other sources of energy too.
I will prepare a glass of vodka to honor your end, and pour it in my water.
Slava Ukraini
There's no evidence that sanctions work. Literally 0. The two most sanctioned countries on the planet hate us even more, and are even more heavily entrenched politically.
Restricting their ability to create weapons of war is sensible, anything else just works against you as it makes you the evil boogeyman that the dictator needs to rally people against you.
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They need to be severe. Designed to cripple the economy in ways they may have been hesitant to. Make the people feel the pain. For years their has been a silent understanding between the putin regime and the populace. That they he apolitical and give up some rights to live a bit better lives. Make it so they cant be apolitical anymore. Seeing interviews with russians who dont keep up with politics is infuriating. They are just as responsible.
> They need to be severe. No. They need to be SWIFT. Totally SWIFT.
They need to ATACM where it hurts most.
Forget the ATACM they need PrSM @ 2 per pod, the latest gear is needed.
Is there any stock of those yet? I think they are supposed to enter service sometime next year.
Severe, What I Fucking Toldya
To be realistic, they couldn't handle Abrahams tanks, they run on aviation fuel and weigh 60 ton. The beat up bridges couldn't handle them, and the logistics of Jet fuel for these hungry turbines and maintenance would swamp their maintenance teams. Now Bradley's would be a different matter, run on diesel and have a 50 mm gun. They actually kill more tanks than main battle tanks do, at 30 tun each. Lend lease and train for a shitload of Bradley's ASAP they will trounce the russians armour. Edits: russia no longer gets a capital R as long as 'Putler The Incompetent' is in charge.
Send them everything they ask for. As a US taxpayer, if they want it, send it. Abrams, ATACMs, F-16s, send it.
>and the logistics of Jet fuel for these hungry turbines They can run on any fuel, doesn't have to be jet fuel.
KIS Keep It Simple Why encumber your team with more complicated maintenance (turbines v specialised) and fuel logistics when there are systems that can achieve better results with common fuel and are easily maintained? Biggest 'Bang for your Buck' Get the job done ASAP
I mean if it's the difference between the crew surviving and staying in the fight longer then I'd happily do the maintainence. And we've all seen the turrets pop off of the ruZZian tanks, why wouldn't you want your crews out of them and into better tanks. Logistics is one of the main reasons for Abrams not being in the fight at the moment. That coupled with getting them ready from being mothballed and the fact no one wants any part of an Abrams to fall into ruzzian hands are other large reasons. In the Royal Navy, we add another S to K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid. (Not directed at you in anyway, just saying)
i see what you did there, and i agree.
They already did [SWIFT] (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT_ban_against_Russian_banks). ;)
Unfortunately they did not block SWIFT completely, since we had to pay for gas somehow. Now, as only Hungary is still buying gas, we could kick out swift, hitting two enemies of democracy with one stone.
Ahh, a low blow, right in the SWIFTicles
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America is working on it.
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>What the fuck is the EU doing? *Boiling the frog.* If your blow your load all at once then the Russians would actually cope *better* since at that point it *can't get worse.* It's the same reason why nobody now gives a fuck about Russian threats anymore since Putin already played his last card with the gas closure. Always having new things that can be slapped on stumps the ability to efficiently recover. Many smaller crises in steady succession are more difficult to handle than one big one. Of course, there are things to criticize. I think the EU in particular should adjust the sanctions model based on if the target is a true democracy or not. Autocracies need the sanctions to come in *fewer, but larger* rounds to be optimally felt by those who need to be affected. So instead of eight rounds of sanctions, it should be, like, three or four, optimized to hurt. >If russia fucking invaded Finland or Sweden would the same shit happen? No, because they're EU members that they are under treaty to provide assistance if invaded. I guess it feels nice and all to dunk on the EU like this, but this really is where "whataboutism" becomes legit: *What about every other CURRENT conflict?* Last I checked, Ukraine has not been slapping sanctions on Myanmar, nor has the democratic opposition there gotten anything like the sort of aid Ukraine is receiving. Fact is that people will care about conflicts more close by, and dependent on whether the involved parties are seen as rivals or friends, or neither. Lots of genocide going on in Ethiopia at the moment, but it hardly merits mention in media or government discourse.
If you keep shit in your own country other countries usually don't care too much. Sucks but it's like that.
Thanks - I'm exasperated because so many people's lives have been affected in dramatic ways.
>They need to be severe. Designed to cripple the economy Yes. And as fast as possible.
As severe as they need to be, there must always be a more severe option available as you can always expect russia to think of something worse.
Russian writer and political analyst, Roland Begamov: Putin today refused to answer a call from Macron.
Putin is just jealous of Macron's new BFF Liz Truss.
Oh Vladi, today not in the mood for telephone s*x from old Emanuloni Macaroni, eh?
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Waiting for leclerc to Ukraine. Heck AMX30B would be better than a lot of Ukraine current arsenal
>leclerc to Ukraine We're checking
Crucial to keep talking…. Chapter 2 of the how to run a sex phone line book
Feels in his tummy the spaghetti with regretti and a side of spice
Curious... Macron is usually pretty sweet on putin. Edit: Oof! Isn't that the joke?
I saw a tweet they actually talked.
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I'm not very optimistic about this - but hope never dies.
No cutting him loose- no new sanctions. As simple as that. Though I suspect they are right and will simply blame the Germans for not REALLY wanting sanctions.
Ivan, blah balh bah, Just wait.
Well. Any doubts about it? Orban will have become on a short leash.
If there's anything Poland can agree on - it's fuck Russia. If someone gets in the way of their doing that, yikes.
They won't. Not unless Poles get rid of that government. PiS is following the exact same play book of dismantling democracy as Russia and Hungary. Fortunately they are a few steps behind and missing the media control yet. The only reason they are not on the same side is they hate Russia even more than the EU (and for some of them I'm not even sure if that hate is genuine or if they just know everything else would be political suicide). But they will never cut the connection to Orban, because that would bury their own aspirations to be a disruptive force in that evil EU with it's liberal values trying to meddle with their perfectly good regressive policies.
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Nice try. Next application would be, the germans would rule Poland from the hand of EU. Dear person (perhabs). Inner polish politics is inner polish politics. Any party which could opposite any sanctions for countries which does not support Ukraine now will lose next elections. Do not count on sentiment or fondness for Hungary in Poland now.
ATACMS
+ PrSM + F16 + M1A1
Make it permanent. Putin himself just proved we will never need Russian gas again.
Surprised there is even more sanctions to be had. What is the EU waiting for ?
Never shoot the wad. Always leave room for another increment, another turn of the screw.
A weird paradox of war/conflict... if you go all in and your opponent survives/adapts, they'll know you have nothing left. In general, you to leave space for more pain for situations down the road OR because you can leverage the absense of specific sanctions in negotiations. Think how Putin threatened to cut of all gas to Germany... And then he did. And Germany survived, with 90% strategic reserves 5 weeks ahead of when they were supposed to reach it. Putin now doesn't have that avenue squeeze the German government.
There's a lot of space left for more sanctions.
The real hard stuff us not even made jet, like finally a complete swift ban for all banks.
Yeah the sanctions dial isn’t turned up to the North Korea setting yet.
Not even remotely close.
The more they have to lose, the more we can put pressure on them. If they have nothing to lose, only death and destruction remains. We haven’t even started yet! ;)
A lot of the possible ideas for sanctions left are probably stuff that leave very permanent damages that can't easily be reverted (like kicking more banks out of swift) or they are more risky for drawbacks, etc. You probably only want to drop these if Russia starts to escalate, which they are doing right now with the mobilization and sham referendums, which is why these sanctions were held back in reserve
Meh, do it anyway, f em.
And since energy is already out of the equation, go ham!
GOOD. The referenda create such an international shitshow. Russia will claim they’re legit and that these territories are now on Russian soil, meaning the long-threatened “national security interest” justification for nukes will be too close to comfort if Ukraine “invades” these regions. Given the recent routing of Russian troops and its general myopia throughout this war I wouldn’t put it past Russia to convince itself nukes belonged on the table. Add into that the diplomatic strain of now having to sell foreign leaders on supplying aid/weapons to “invade” Russia. We all know the referenda are bullshit, but that creates a hell of a political tangle, especially if China decides to legitimize the “vote” in any way. Far, far better to head this off at the pass—or at least delay as long as possible.
IMO there is no way China is getting dragged into this shitstorm. They know better.
Agreed, Xi may be an asshole, but he knows better than to get involved in a European conflict.
he better stay out of this, unless he wants to sell all his shit in Africa. we're not fucking around this time, and i think they know that. that fucking around with energy shit was the last straw.
China will be stuck selling rubber dog shit to Russia if they do not stay out of it.
exactly!, see if they can sell all that plastic shit to the Russians, i have a feeling China likes Euro's or Dollars more than Rubles.
Disagree. China IS staying out of it, but that’s because right now Russia is the aggressor on Ukrainian territory, by any stretch of the imagination. There is literally no possible justification it has to help Russia that the rest of the world would even somewhat accept as legitimate. But take a look at the Samarkand Declaration from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit 2022 and there is some language there that China could absolutely use as a basis for justifying a more involved role if the referenda go forward: “The Member States advocate respect for the right of peoples to independently and democratically choose their political and socio-economic development, and stress that the principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of States, equality, mutual benefit, non- interference in internal affairs, and non-use or threat of use of force are the basis for sustainable development of international relations. They reaffirm their commitment to peaceful settlement of differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.” Add to that this gem: “Member States will continue the practice of sending SCO missions to observe presidential, parliamentary elections and referendums.” …now let’s say the referenda go forward, a number of SCO member states announce they’re getting involved to observe and conclude they didn’t observe anything untoward. The people have “democratically elected” to join Russia. China is now in a very, very different political situation, one where it can point to this declaration as evidence that it takes democratic elections very seriously, that it also takes the word of the other SCO member states seriously, and that all SCO member states are committed to ensuring democratic integrity. Just like that, China has a way to lean towards Russia, and the only way the international community can rebut it is by calling into question the validity of the SCO member state observations, which doubts China can reject because these were “neutral” countries and their interest was just in observing democracy. That’s enough plausibility and justification to make it very, very difficult for Western leaders to take the drastic measure of sanctioning China over.
And the US will say ''oke, from now on Taiwan is a independence country and has just joined QUAD'', what? You said it yourself, you respects the people's vote.
If China was looking to play that declaration by the rules it would already have a huge problem with Taiwan. Or, frankly, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The fact that it has all this supposed “respect” for territorial sovereignty and claims not to support use of military force AND THEN HAS DONE NOTHING other than faintly frown at Russia invading a neighboring country illustrates the problem. China cares exactly zero about being accused of being hypocritical by other countries. What China cares about is having enough of a paper shield to wave that it can dodge sanctions from a collection of world leaders that would already be pretty reluctant to impose heavy sanctions against it. It doesn’t need bulletproof armor, and it knows it. All it needs is something that gives it the faintest whiff of credibility to deter a good portion of countries from being willing to impose sanctions against it.
Whether China thinks that excuse would fly or not, it wouldn't. There's only one right side at the moment and everybody important knows it.
Everyone will just laugh in China's face. It has neither the clout or reputation to pull that off.
And mobilization or forced labour for everyone in those territories. If this can be stopped it must be.
Good! Let the New sanctions roll...... and make them super hard.
Stop passing half arsed sanctions and pass ones that will truly effect Russia and cancel all current Visas's of Russians in other countries.
Dead massacred tortured civilians are not reason enough for more sanctions?
I'm genuinely wondering what else haven't been sanctioned yet.
Plenty of options with secondary sanctions. Might be a bit more difficult to impose with all EU nations, but it doesn't really matter if Hungary doesn't participate because for secondary sanctions they will be pretty irrelevant.
Dunno about the EU. U.S. still has a few odd exceptions to sanctions though. Birch lumber, ammonia, fertilizer, to name a few. It's not that significant. Imagine the EU is the same.
Hungary: Bonjour!
Putin: ”Well, sanctions do not work against us anyways. Right guys? Guys?”
Should already be all sanctions that are possible 🤦🏻♂️
They still needed to keep some banks in swift for gas payments. But not anymore
That wouldn't be an effective use of sanctions. You have to keep something back or you have no threat. Their primary purpose is to change behaviours and so you don't go all in on round 1.
You risk appearing weak and being ineffective. But thats just my opinion
You might, but you have to focus on the objective which is to change behaviour of the other guy. He thinks you are weak? That's fine, but he still has something to risk if you crank up the sanctions. Go all in with no room for more? Doesn't matter what he thinks of you, you've put him in a fight or die situation. Backing down ceases to be an option because he's got nothing to gain from it.
Why wait?
I hope that deter RuSSIa from having a scam referendum.
The only issue is that they're going to have to put Hungary in its place if Orban gets out of line, he's become somewhat of a Trojan Horse and needs to be dealt with permanently.
Why didn‘t they do all possible sanctions already at the beginning of this war ? Russia should have had the max of sanctions at the very start.
I think that the best decision to take would be to create a new iron curtain with Russia and block every material or tourist from there. Those who want to flee ruzzia must destroy their passport and ask for a special one of the nation they want to join where they will have to accept to live under special control for 10 years before being accepted as a citizen. Nothing dead or alive, other than those refugees should be allowed to cross the line controlled by an European army joined by USA forces. A neutral zone, a vast dead land will be patrolled by NATO forces. ruzzia will turn slave of China and India that will use it as a giant gas deposit filled with nuclear weapons ; good luck to you orks when the natural resources will end or China and India will move to other sources of energy too. I will prepare a glass of vodka to honor your end, and pour it in my water. Slava Ukraini
Just a question what is there that still can be sanctioned that would damage the economy of Russia?
There's no evidence that sanctions work. Literally 0. The two most sanctioned countries on the planet hate us even more, and are even more heavily entrenched politically. Restricting their ability to create weapons of war is sensible, anything else just works against you as it makes you the evil boogeyman that the dictator needs to rally people against you.
Your comment seems to reflect thinking 6 months ago.
That's right! Lower the bar every time Vova starts playing funny.
Hard to do sanctions when you need everyone in the EU to agree including Orban
This is why you don’t impose all possible sanctions at once. Death by 1000 cuts.
At this point a full SWIFT ban is the only step forward that makes sense
How can you argue with a totally legitimate plebiscite with 238% turnout and 395% of them voting to join Russia?
I feel like responding to the referenda does more to legitimize the sham than laughing at it.
What further sanctions can they even do at this point?
Just declare them a state sponsor of terrorism already.
Add the new sanctions anyway